When it comes to drafting a linebacker, is value in the eye of the beholder?

[Sherlock Holmes]

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

By the mid 50's both Campbell & Sanders will be gone.  We need to find a trade down partner. 

Yes and pick up both

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Not being that guy and not calling you out, but I see this a lot. This is one of those things that people believe, but it is simply not true. Tremaine was an off-ball inside stack backer at Tech, doing exactly what he was asked to do with us. Most projections thought he would become an effective blitzer over time, but he didn't. Some projections also felt that he could become an edge rusher if he bulked up a bit, a 3-4 olb. He was supposed to be a sideline-to-sideline rangy inside backer. A more creative defense could have likely gotten more out of him by using him as more of a chess piece.  

 

Sanders is a little different. He was recruited as an edge rusher and played there at Bama. Transfers to Arkansas and moves to the inside backer, but still comes off the edge sometimes. The comp, to me, comes more from the raw nature of their game and the athletic profile. Sanders will be a better rusher than Edmunds will ever be, Tremaine had more coverage skills at this point, and both had/have issues with misdirection and run fits in the box coming out. 

 

Simpson is similar to Sanders in that he was an edge rusher and nickel slot player for the last couple of years. This year was his only year playing in the box as a stack backer, so there is some of the same rawness in his game and some of those same issues. 

 

Campbell has way more experience in the box and is a pure inside linebacker whereas the other guys are projections. Campbell has also been doing it much longer so there is a lot more film to dissect and highlight his flaws. The other guys are more unknowns because there is only one year film on each in the box. 

 

 

 

Cambell is better in every single athletic measure than Sanders and he is bigger with shorter arms. Simpson is shorter than both, but more stocky than Sanders with longer arms, and the same weight. Simpson beats both in the 40 and vert. Cambell posted a ridiculous 3 cone. 

 

The original intent of the post is indeed true. Pick your flavor. I am happy with any of those three guys. They all bring different traits to the table. 

Thanks for the information.  Would like to know who McD would prefer.  Seems if he wants a more aggressive blitzing type Sanders/Simpson have done it better. 

 

Wonder how much the intangibles play a factor.  Campbell screams old school football - 4yr player, captain, excellent academics, no social media, no NIL, incredible work ethic.  Comes across as no-nonsense, football focused.  Easy to see him willing to extend after 3 years to a team friendly, Milano type contract.

[whorlnut]

28 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I'm expecting surprises. Did we not learn anything last year? Sure Ed may have a good year, but in all likelihood someone will pay him stupid money next year.

I think Beane will take advantage of that during the draft....via trades. Let me dream a little....

 

rd.1.pick 27  Calijah Kancey DT

rd.2  Trade  Oliver to his hometown Houston for 33, 73 and 188. We could throw in a late 2024 if need be.

rd.2 pick 33 Jack Campbell

 

Trade: 59, 91 and 205 to Seattle for no. 37

rd. 2 Steve Avila (played C 2021, G 2022 and has played at both G spots)

 

rd.3 pick 73 Isaiah Foskey Edge   He can be listed and lined up at OLB while providing pass rush and or used at DE depending on Von's near and distant future.

 

rd.4 pick 130 BPA

rd.5 pick 137 BPA

rd.6 pick 188 BPA

 

I may have screwed up somewhere but all the trades were to teams with 2 picks in said rds. Flame away

No WR = fail.

 

The thought that some fans think we are set at WR continues to blow me away. The Bills have used twice as many top 30 visits on WRs as any other position and are going to Boston to meet with Zay Flowers, yet people still put out mocks like this?  

[Cash]

12 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

By the mid 50's both Campbell & Sanders will be gone.  We need to find a trade down partner. 

I'll take that bet.  I think the only way both are gone by pick 55 is if the Bills draft one of them earlier.

[PBF81]

51 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't agree with you there. Cook has more potential than that. It's up to Dorsey to use him. Knox is a better TE than his numbers, as well. Player has to be given the opportunities to make the plays.

 

Well, OK, that's valid to an extent, but to date Cook has not even approached proving that he's anything but a role playing RB, either in his four years at Georgia nor in his rookie season.  He wasn't even the primary ball carrier in his Senior season.  

 

So we'll see, at best there.  And many of us don't have the confidence that Dorsey will use him "correctly" however that might be.  Let's keep in mind that the team has made comments/implications about needing a RB as well.  Why, if Cook is that RB.  

 

Knox is a better TE than his numbers.  But so is Davis.  So was Edmunds which we'll see this season.  So was Singletary whom IMO we'll also see post top-10 numbers IMO, even at Houston assuming that he gets the opportunity to earn the starting role over Pierce.  

 

IMO most of the team is underachieving under this staff.  It's an impossible argument to suggest that they haven't been in the playoffs where our play flips our offensive and defensive rankings on their heads.  

 

 

[Don Otreply]

   LBs like every other draft choice is a “perception / opinion” of the BPA at a position of need, each team will value different traits a player has a bit differently.  
 

   This is the case even within a single team amongst its people who have valued opinions,  so overall the final decision within a team will come down to the the guy who’s job it is to make that decision.
 

   In our case it’s Beane, and yes he gets an ear full from his HC and coordinators, but that’s normal.  Like GunnerBill said players can adapt to different schemes, some better than others…,  

 

   An old saying comes to mind; “ The draft is like a box of chocolates, ya never know what your going to get”  😁👍

[PBF81]

59 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Clearly a role player?  🙄 

 

Well, barely 500 yards total rushing, a mere 2 rushing TDs, one against the worst rushing defense in the entire league, the other being a gravy TD as the last score in a 38-3 rout, no 100-yard games, only one game with more than 11 carries, ... 

 

Otherwise, why all the talk about drafting Robinson, trading for Barkley, etc.  Why the team statements?  Why didn't Cook supplant Singletary during the season if he's that good, because here Singletary was patently below-average.  It's also not as if he picked up steam as the season went along, he averaged 7 carries for 42 yards and that mere pathetic rushing TD vs. Chicago, the league's worst rushing D, over the last 6 games of the season.  

 

In the playoffs he had a whopping 17 carries for 52 yards and a 3 ypc avg.  Against Cinci he may as well have stayed home.  

 

I mean if that's a full-time ball carrier to you then god bless ya!  

 

We'll see, but IMO there's not a person out there that knows this team's needs that wouldn't trade Dean for Cook right now.  

 

 

[frostbitmic]

MLB seems to be the teams weakest starting position at this point. Don't risk not getting the guy you want and just take the one you gave the highest grade to.

 

It's unlikely any of the top; 3 make it to the Bills pick in the 2nd round and Overshown likely won't make it to the Bills pick in the 3rd. If you can't find a dance partner, you'll have to over draft one ...  if they're even looking to upgrade the position.

 

Maybe Dodson, Bernard or Spector will surprise us all.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

I'm expecting surprises. Did we not learn anything last year? Sure Ed may have a good year, but in all likelihood someone will pay him stupid money next year.

I think Beane will take advantage of that during the draft....via trades. Let me dream a little....

 

rd.1.pick 27  Calijah Kancey DT

rd.2  Trade  Oliver to his hometown Houston for 33, 73 and 188. We could throw in a late 2024 if need be.

rd.2 pick 33 Jack Campbell

 

Trade: 59, 91 and 205 to Seattle for no. 37

rd. 2 Steve Avila (played C 2021, G 2022 and has played at both G spots)

 

rd.3 pick 73 Isaiah Foskey Edge   He can be listed and lined up at OLB while providing pass rush and or used at DE depending on Von's near and distant future.

 

rd.4 pick 130 BPA

rd.5 pick 137 BPA

rd.6 pick 188 BPA

 

I may have screwed up somewhere but all the trades were to teams with 2 picks in said rds. Flame away

Lol-  33, 73 and 188 for Ed Oliver?  
 

bwhahahahahahahahahahaha

10 minutes ago, frostbitmic said:

MLB seems to be the teams weakest starting position at this point. Don't risk not getting the guy you want and just take the one you gave the highest grade to.

 

It's unlikely any of the top; 3 make it to the Bills pick in the 2nd round and Overshown likely won't make it to the Bills pick in the 3rd. If you can't find a dance partner, you'll have to over draft one ...  if they're even looking to upgrade the position.

 

Maybe Dodson, Bernard or Spector will surprise us all.

What if there isn’t a guy that they want most?  Draft 101-  don’t reach to fill a need with your first pick. 
 

I think Dodson and Spector will be nearly as good, if not better than Campbell in 2023.  
 

I also think Overshown will make it to our rd 3.  - I think he’s mid late 3rd- early 4th but we’ll see

[NewEra]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, barely 500 yards total rushing, a mere 2 rushing TDs, one against the worst rushing defense in the entire league, the other being a gravy TD as the last score in a 38-3 rout, no 100-yard games, only one game with more than 11 carries, ... 

 

Otherwise, why all the talk about drafting Robinson, trading for Barkley, etc.  Why the team statements?  Why didn't Cook supplant Singletary during the season if he's that good, because here Singletary was patently below-average.  It's also not as if he picked up steam as the season went along, he averaged 7 carries for 42 yards and that mere pathetic rushing TD vs. Chicago, the league's worst rushing D, over the last 6 games of the season.  

 

In the playoffs he had a whopping 17 carries for 52 yards and a 3 ypc avg.  Against Cinci he may as well have stayed home.  

 

I mean if that's a full-time ball carrier to you then god bless ya!  

 

We'll see, but IMO there's not a person out there that knows this team's needs that wouldn't trade Dean for Cook right now.  

 

 

I wouldn’t trade cook for Dean. I wouldn’t have last year either. One has played well in the NFL.  One couldn’t even get snaps.  

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

No WR = fail.

 

The thought that some fans think we are set at WR continues to blow me away. The Bills have used twice as many top 30 visits on WRs as any other position and are going to Boston to meet with Zay Flowers, yet people still put out mocks like this?  

One man's dream a little is another's nightmare. Folks who keep punting on offense dismay me.

[Dr. Who]

44 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, that's valid to an extent, but to date Cook has not even approached proving that he's anything but a role playing RB, either in his four years at Georgia nor in his rookie season.  He wasn't even the primary ball carrier in his Senior season.  

 

So we'll see, at best there.  And many of us don't have the confidence that Dorsey will use him "correctly" however that might be.  Let's keep in mind that the team has made comments/implications about needing a RB as well.  Why, if Cook is that RB.  

 

Knox is a better TE than his numbers.  But so is Davis.  So was Edmunds which we'll see this season.  So was Singletary whom IMO we'll also see post top-10 numbers IMO, even at Houston assuming that he gets the opportunity to earn the starting role over Pierce.  

 

IMO most of the team is underachieving under this staff.  It's an impossible argument to suggest that they haven't been in the playoffs where our play flips our offensive and defensive rankings on their heads.  

 

 

I don't think one should give into despair because a first year OC had some first year OC issues. He may not be up to the job, but I'm not drafting based on that assumption. Davis is not better than his numbers. I think that's what he is.

 

I'm very aware of Cook. I live near Athens. Where the offense needs addition imo is oline, especially competition at RT, WR2, and TE2. I personally prioritize the offense over D. I am not fixated on replacing Edmunds because I think a veteran FA can be brought in after the draft as a stop gap for a year if you don't get the fella you want. I would rather try that and bulk up the offense. This is an offense dominated league. The NFL wants it that way. The rules are that way. The game is officiated that way. We ought not to do to Josh Allen what the Packers did to Aaron Rodgers waiting to the mid rounds in the draft to throw him a bone.

 

[msw2112]

13 hours ago, NewEra said:

Same here regarding Shakir.  I was hoping for him over Bernard.  

 

Parham definitely would’ve been the better pick.  

 

Just a thought - how would this board feel about Bernard if Shakir had been taken in the 3rd round (with the pick used on Bernard) and Bernard had been taken in the 5th round (with the pick used on Shakir)?

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, msw2112 said:

 

Just a thought - how would this board feel about Bernard if Shakir had been taken in the 3rd round (with the pick used on Bernard) and Bernard had been taken in the 5th round (with the pick used on Shakir)?

It would’ve been a better use of a pick in rd 5 and could’ve turned he and Spector into the 2023 version of Milano and Vallejo.  
 

as of now, I’d have more confidence putting Spector out there than Bernard.  

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

I wouldn’t trade cook for Dean. I wouldn’t have last year either. One has played well in the NFL.  One couldn’t even get snaps.  

 

Did you look to see who was ahead of Dean on the depth chart, but isn't anymore?   At least be fair in your analysis.  

 

Let's revisit at season's end, shall we.  

 

And frankly, Cook didn't exactly have Derrick Henry in front of him.  At the end of the day Cook did absolutely nothing to signal that he was even remotely capable of being a 3-down RB.  

 

The difference between Dean and what we have now is pronounced.  Meanwhile, the team is reportedly considering drafting a RB and there's no shortage of fan support for that.  I don't hear a barrage of people claiming that "we're all set with Cook."  

 

I'll bookmark this discussion, let's see how the season progresses for both.   

 

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think one should give into despair because a first year OC had some first year OC issues. He may not be up to the job, but I'm not drafting based on that assumption. Davis is not better than his numbers. I think that's what he is.

 

I'm very aware of Cook. I live near Athens. Where the offense needs addition imo is oline, especially competition at RT, WR2, and TE2. I personally prioritize the offense over D. I am not fixated on replacing Edmunds because I think a veteran FA can be brought in after the draft as a stop gap for a year if you don't get the fella you want. I would rather try that and bulk up the offense. This is an offense dominated league. The NFL wants it that way. The rules are that way. The game is officiated that way. We ought not to do to Josh Allen what the Packers did to Aaron Rodgers waiting to the mid rounds in the draft to throw him a bone.

 

Well, we'll see.  I don't think that Davis could have had a worse year.  IMO he's over 1,000 this year.  We'll see.  But you're suggesting that he's topped out I don't see that at all.  In fact, his third season numbers are about what Diggs' third season numbers were.  He's also young.  

 

I share your focus on the O, but given that I think differently of Davis than you do we'll differ there.  Agree on RT, if not even a C/OG.  Morse isn't long for the team, he's old for a C, and he's only got this and next season left.  Also agree on the Allen/Rodgers comp.  

 

I will say that re: LB though that we have no starting caliber LBs besides Milano.  What if he goes down, honestly, our D will be tinkering with being last.  Even if not, one LB can't hold the fort down there.  I'm not as confident in the vet 1/2 year signees as you are.  That's what Klein was essentially or Matakevich, we were told the same thing by Beane & Co.  

 

As I see it, our primary needs are OL (generally), LB (both middle/inside as well as OLB), and RB now without Singletary.  IMO we're in no position to trade up, only down, and even at the other positions we can use upgrades.  I mean we still have no bona fide pass rusher on the outside.  Rousseau faded as the season wore on, not a good sign there.  If White's play doesn't improve we're light there too unless Elam's play makes huge strides.  TE, meh, we could use an upgrade, but can't afford to use a day 1 or 2 pick there with our dearth at LB and perpetual needs along the OL.  

 

I'm liking this Campbell guy, I wouldn't be upset if we grabbed him with our 27th.  Either that or OT there.  A trade down for a couple of 2nds or a 2nd and high 3rd might be good too.  

 

Who knows, we'll see, none of us has any control over any of it.  I will say that IMO Beane needs to hit this one out of the park or else.  That's something he hasn't come close to doing, so it'll be interesting for sure.  But we need impact starting players regardless of where we get them from.  

 

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Thanks for the information.  Would like to know who McD would prefer.  Seems if he wants a more aggressive blitzing type Sanders/Simpson have done it better. 

 

Wonder how much the intangibles play a factor.  Campbell screams old school football - 4yr player, captain, excellent academics, no social media, no NIL, incredible work ethic.  Comes across as no-nonsense, football focused.  Easy to see him willing to extend after 3 years to a team friendly, Milano type contract.

 

From what I have heard/read about Campbell and Simpson, they are huge process guys. Simpson's character is off the charts as a military family kid. 

 

I don't know enough about Sanders. 

 

https://clemsontigers.com/trenton-simpson-2022-program-story/

 

 

 

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, we'll see.  I don't think that Davis could have had a worse year.  IMO he's over 1,000 this year.  We'll see.  But you're suggesting that he's topped out I don't see that at all.  In fact, his third season numbers are about what Diggs' third season numbers were.  He's also young.  

 

I share your focus on the O, but given that I think differently of Davis than you do we'll differ there.  Agree on RT, if not even a C/OG.  Morse isn't long for the team, he's old for a C, and he's only got this and next season left.  Also agree on the Allen/Rodgers comp.  

 

I will say that re: LB though that we have no starting caliber LBs besides Milano.  What if he goes down, honestly, our D will be tinkering with being last.  Even if not, one LB can't hold the fort down there.  I'm not as confident in the vet 1/2 year signees as you are.  That's what Klein was essentially or Matakevich, we were told the same thing by Beane & Co.  

 

As I see it, our primary needs are OL (generally), LB (both middle/inside as well as OLB), and RB now without Singletary.  IMO we're in no position to trade up, only down, and even at the other positions we can use upgrades.  I mean we still have no bona fide pass rusher on the outside.  Rousseau faded as the season wore on, not a good sign there.  If White's play doesn't improve we're light there too unless Elam's play makes huge strides.  TE, meh, we could use an upgrade, but can't afford to use a day 1 or 2 pick there with our dearth at LB and perpetual needs along the OL.  

 

I'm liking this Campbell guy, I wouldn't be upset if we grabbed him with our 27th.  Either that or OT there.  A trade down for a couple of 2nds or a 2nd and high 3rd might be good too.  

 

Who knows, we'll see, none of us has any control over any of it.  I will say that IMO Beane needs to hit this one out of the park or else.  That's something he hasn't come close to doing, so it'll be interesting for sure.  But we need impact starting players regardless of where we get them from.  

 

 

 

 

Someone posted Joe Marino's Locked On podcast from a few days ago I think where he discusses Gabe Davis at length. I thought it was pretty fair, looking at what is good in his game and what is not. Some of the negative issues are not likely to change, imo. I searched for this so I could advise you where to find it, but the keywords I tried did not bring it up. It's probably somewhere in the endless Hopkins' thread. I like the RB room considerably more than you. I think Cook is better than a 3rd down specialist. Damien Harris is more than a goal line specialist, provided he can stay healthy. Hines could offer more if Dorsey learns how to make use of pass catching running backs.

 

If you don't go LB early, there isn't a lot. Some suggest Henley or Overshown but they are not inside lbs. Not writing home about any of them. I like Trenton Simpson, then Drew Sanders, then Campbell, so I am an outlier from those who are enamored with Capt. Jack. If they take him, I suppose he is a safe, high floor guy, but I think his ceiling is limited. Of course, if we pick him I'll hope he is great. He's old school and that is both admirable and easy to like. I think Campbell is Paul Posluszny. Another fella on here suggested Jack Del Rio as a comp. I just don't like him at 27 and I don't like the notion that one is forced to take a first round lb because of need. I believe McDermott ought to be able to do more with less. They need to stop gobbling up the first round picks on D. It's possible, of course, that there won't be an offensive player worth taking at 27, but I'd still prefer to give priority there unless it's just plain obvious there is no one worth the pick on that side of the ball. Folks don't think TE2 is valuable enough, but I make an exception for Dalton Kincaid. I think he's a weapon and likely better than any WR available at 27.

 

I'll be . . . unhappy, if they go LB, DT with the first two picks which I surmise is their natural bent. If you wait to the second round for an offensive player, I like Matthew Bergeron and Darnell Washington, though Washington goes well before 59. (TE is one of the richer positions in the draft and I think Dorsey should make 12 personnel a base formation. Some folks don't like that. Jimmy crack corn and I don't care.) I do agree that Beane needs a strong draft, so whether I agree with his strategy or not, we're all hoping he hits.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Dr. Who

[NewEra]

51 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Did you look to see who was ahead of Dean on the depth chart, but isn't anymore?   At least be fair in your analysis.  

 

Let's revisit at season's end, shall we.  

 

And frankly, Cook didn't exactly have Derrick Henry in front of him.  At the end of the day Cook did absolutely nothing to signal that he was even remotely capable of being a 3-down RB.  

 

The difference between Dean and what we have now is pronounced.  Meanwhile, the team is reportedly considering drafting a RB and there's no shortage of fan support for that.  I don't hear a barrage of people claiming that "we're all set with Cook."  

 

I'll bookmark this discussion, let's see how the season progresses for both.   

 

 

I’ll start the barrage-  we’re set with cook.  He’s going to be our best RB for the next 3 seasons.  We won’t be drafting a RB in the top 3 rounds.  I thought he was electric down the stretch- 5.7 ypc behind a pretty bad OL.  
 

Dean-  has done nothing.  You can’t really be “fair” when said player hasn’t done anything to warrant praise.  Or has he?  What’s he done?

 

He should be good. I liked the player in college.  He’s playing behind a monster DL with a good pass rush and is flanked by great corners.  
 

I really like what I’ve seen from Cook.  Imo, the only thing that you’ll be talking about next year, when you come back to your bookmark, is his TDs.  The red zone carries will likely go Allen and Harris, and rightly so.  

[K-9]

Unlike the resident experts here, GMs, scouts, and other talent evaluators around the league couldn’t care less about what all the talking head pundits and draftniks think of any prospects coming out. The Bills, like every other team, will have a list of players they’d take with every pick in every round they select. I guarantee that list won’t jibe with the talking heads who just aren’t privy to the same sheer amount of information compiled since last spring when the college scouting season kicked off in earnest. 
 

Our resident experts should prepare themselves for the head explosions come draft day because if the Bills value and select a player at 27 who some ill-informed pundits rank lower, that’s sure to happen. Just like it does ever year.

[Sherlock Holmes]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Lol-  33, 73 and 188 for Ed Oliver?  
 

bwhahahahahahahahahahaha

What if there isn’t a guy that they want most?  Draft 101-  don’t reach to fill a need with your first pick. 
 

I think Dodson and Spector will be nearly as good, if not better than Campbell in 2023.  
 

I also think Overshown will make it to our rd 3.  - I think he’s mid late 3rd- early 4th but we’ll see

Oliver and some picks for Cooper Kupp

[NewEra]

9 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:

Oliver and some picks for Cooper Kupp

Lol, we can dream

[Paup 1995MVP]

19 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

it seems like most of the LB's you mentioned were drafted lower then their projection.  Except for Terrel Bernard.  But the Bills overdrafted him and Tremaine Edmunds.  (I know a lot of you thought Tremaine was excellent and he was only 19 when drafted.  But his instincts for the position are terrible.  And trading up to the middle of the first round for him was a mistake.)  As for Bernard, hopefully he can step his game up to the level of at least a 3rd round pick.  Because he did not show much last year.  

 

Nick Bolton has been excellent for the Chiefs.  And Micah Parsons is a special player, who has lived up to the hype coming out of Penn State.  Overall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

[Einstein's Dog]

6 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

iOverall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

What?  Our average-ish starting RB just got $3.5M while our average-ish starting LB just got $18.5M

[TheyCallMeAndy]

8 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

it seems like most of the LB's you mentioned were drafted lower then their projection.  Except for Terrel Bernard.  But the Bills overdrafted him and Tremaine Edmunds.  (I know a lot of you thought Tremaine was excellent and he was only 19 when drafted.  But his instincts for the position are terrible.  And trading up to the middle of the first round for him was a mistake.)  As for Bernard, hopefully he can step his game up to the level of at least a 3rd round pick.  Because he did not show much last year.  

 

Nick Bolton has been excellent for the Chiefs.  And Micah Parsons is a special player, who has lived up to the hype coming out of Penn State.  Overall LB has become a very devalued position in the NFL.  Maybe even more then RB.  

The point I was suggesting was maybe there is no over or under drafting when it comes to LBers because of how a guy may fit a scheme, and I had a few examples of guys who didn’t necessarily go where they were projected.

 

I showed Bernard because I was curious and I figured others may be too. 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Someone posted Joe Marino's Locked On podcast from a few days ago I think where he discusses Gabe Davis at length. I thought it was pretty fair, looking at what is good in his game and what is not. Some of the negative issues are not likely to change, imo. I searched for this so I could advise you where to find it, but the keywords I tried did not bring it up. It's probably somewhere in the endless Hopkins' thread. I like the RB room considerably more than you. I think Cook is better than a 3rd down specialist. Damien Harris is more than a goal line specialist, provided he can stay healthy. Hines could offer more if Dorsey learns how to make use of pass catching running backs.

 

If you don't go LB early, there isn't a lot. Some suggest Henley or Overshown but they are not inside lbs. Not writing home about any of them. I like Trenton Simpson, then Drew Sanders, then Campbell, so I am an outlier from those who are enamored with Capt. Jack. If they take him, I suppose he is a safe, high floor guy, but I think his ceiling is limited. Of course, if we pick him I'll hope he is great. He's old school and that is both admirable and easy to like. I think Campbell is Paul Posluszny. Another fella on here suggested Jack Del Rio as a comp. I just don't like him at 27 and I don't like the notion that one is forced to take a first round lb because of need. I believe McDermott ought to be able to do more with less. They need to stop gobbling up the first round picks on D. It's possible, of course, that there won't be an offensive player worth taking at 27, but I'd still prefer to give priority there unless it's just plain obvious there is no one worth the pick on that side of the ball. Folks don't think TE2 is valuable enough, but I make an exception for Dalton Kincaid. I think he's a weapon and likely better than any WR available at 27.

 

I'll be . . . unhappy, if they go LB, DT with the first two picks which I surmise is their natural bent. If you wait to the second round for an offensive player, I like Matthew Bergeron and Darnell Washington, though Washington goes well before 59. (TE is one of the richer positions in the draft and I think Dorsey should make 12 personnel a base formation. Some folks don't like that. Jimmy crack corn and I don't care.) I do agree that Beane needs a strong draft, so whether I agree with his strategy or not, we're all hoping he hits.

 

What were the nuts-n-bolts of the Davis analysis, do you remember?   Sounds interesting.  

 

I think I found it on youtube, I'll listen as well.  

 

I'm generally in agreement with you on not consuming even more of our resources on D in rounds 1 & 2, just saying that if we do go D it should be a LB simply because we don't have any after Milano.  Doing more with less is one thing, but trying to do something with next-to-nothing is a whole other thing.  

 

What I will staunchly say is that if Beane doesn't get some impact play from at least one or two of his draft picks this season, IMO it's the beginning of the end of him in Buffalo.  May take a couple seasons, but how long can someone live off of the reputation of a single draft pick a half-decade prior or longer.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I’ll start the barrage-  we’re set with cook.  He’s going to be our best RB for the next 3 seasons.  We won’t be drafting a RB in the top 3 rounds.  I thought he was electric down the stretch- 5.7 ypc behind a pretty bad OL.  
 

Dean-  has done nothing.  You can’t really be “fair” when said player hasn’t done anything to warrant praise.  Or has he?  What’s he done?

 

He should be good. I liked the player in college.  He’s playing behind a monster DL with a good pass rush and is flanked by great corners.  
 

I really like what I’ve seen from Cook.  Imo, the only thing that you’ll be talking about next year, when you come back to your bookmark, is his TDs.  The red zone carries will likely go Allen and Harris, and rightly so.  

 

We'll see.  I'll bet you a beer.  LOL  

 

I don't see Cook doing anything more than Singletary ever has, particularly with Damien Harris there.  If the team really believed that he was a 3-down RB they wouldn't have traded for Harris.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

What were the nuts-n-bolts of the Davis analysis, do you remember?   Sounds interesting.  

 

I think I found it on youtube, I'll listen as well.  

 

I'm generally in agreement with you on not consuming even more of our resources on D in rounds 1 & 2, just saying that if we do go D it should be a LB simply because we don't have any after Milano.  Doing more with less is one thing, but trying to do something with next-to-nothing is a whole other thing.  

 

What I will staunchly say is that if Beane doesn't get some impact play from at least one or two of his draft picks this season, IMO it's the beginning of the end of him in Buffalo.  May take a couple seasons, but how long can someone live off of the reputation of a single draft pick a half-decade prior or longer.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Very pithy reduction of Marino: He doesn't think greater health is going to alter his contributions. He thinks Davis has developed into what he is. Davis has slow build up speed. He gets open downfield. He isn't a threat for short and intermediate balls. He puts himself into a good position to catch the ball, but his technique for actually catching is not ideal. Marino says he is a "horizontal clapper" and has probably been catching that way from the beginning. Rather than forming a kind of diamond with his hands to softly catch the ball, he tries to clap his hands onto it which is a method that intrinsically has a higher miss rate. Davis' numbers are good for a WR2, but they are somewhat deceptive for a high volume passing offense. Marino thinks he is a superior WR4; an adequate WR2 whose flaws will be something you have to live with.

[nosejob]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see.  I'll bet you a beer.  LOL  

 

I don't see Cook doing anything more than Singletary ever has, particularly with Damien Harris there.  If the team really believed that he was a 3-down RB they wouldn't have traded for Harris.  

 

 

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

Can’t make this stuff up

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

23 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Since some of us pound the table for a LBer at 27, and some of us pound the table to wait, I’ve been curious to where the top LBers have been drafted over the last few years. 
 

Now, quick note: Every single website has different rankings for the same player and this year is no different. Draft Network loves Cap Jack yet NFL.com has a few ‘backers ahead of him. For ease of access I used nfldraftbuzz.com since they made it easy to pull up their rankings/ratings and where the player got drafted. 
 

I also tried to focus on 4-3 LBers.

 

2021:

 

Mica Parsons: projected to go top-5, went 12th.
JOK: projected to be a top 10, picked 52nd. Javen Collins: projected to be a mid-first, went 16th.
Nick Bolton: projected to be a mid-1st, went 58th overall. 

 

2022:

 

Nakobe Dean: projected a mid-1st, went in the 3rd round.
Devin Llyod: projected mid-1st, went 27th.

Brandon Smith: projected mid-2nd, went in 4th round.

Christian Harris: projected late-2nd, went round 3 pick 75.

Terrel Bernard: He was a projected 5th rounder who went top 100. 

 

It definitely looks like LB value is really dictated by a teams scheme fit, and every scheme is different. It may be a reach for someone, but if a linebacker fits this defense really well they should take him as long as McBean is comfortable with it.

A few LBer projections from NFLdraftbuzz:

Jack Campbell: Late first

Drew Sanders: 3rd round

Trenton Simpson: Early second

 

 

Well with the way the draft looks right now...I think there are a lot of positions that are going to be team specific as to who is drafted at what spot. 

 

The "experts" mock drafts will be in complete shambles. After maybe the 18th or 19th pick many of the guys selected will likely have round 1 grades by some teams and a 3rd or 4th rounder by others. My prediction is there will be a LOT of guys taken that the Mel Kipers of the world throw the word "reach" out there after the pick. And they will be baffled at some of the guys that they love sliding a complete round or 2 later then they predicted. But teams will grade based on their systems and different guys will get taken over more popular picks. We see it to some extent every year...but I think this year is going to be insane with unexpected picks and late 1st round trades. Buffalo may be in an EXCELLENT spot to trade back.

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Very pithy reduction of Marino: He doesn't think greater health is going to alter his contributions. He thinks Davis has developed into what he is. Davis has slow build up speed. He gets open downfield. He isn't a threat for short and intermediate balls. He puts himself into a good position to catch the ball, but his technique for actually catching is not ideal. Marino says he is a "horizontal clapper" and has probably been catching that way from the beginning. Rather than forming a kind of diamond with his hands to softly catch the ball, he tries to clap his hands onto it which is a method that intrinsically has a higher miss rate. Davis' numbers are good for a WR2, but they are somewhat deceptive for a high volume passing offense. Marino thinks he is a superior WR4; an adequate WR2 whose flaws will be something you have to live with.

 

I've watched Marino's video and he did not show any video at all.  I have a difficult time with just talk not accompanied by video.  It' one thing to say something, it's another to back it up with evidence.  

 

I also watched this one;       Gabe Davis' Top Plays Of The 2022 NFL Season | Buffalo Bills    It won't link here for some reason.  

 

I saw at least five routes the he ran, and that video was over half of his catches.  I saw some very clutch nigh uncatchable passes in there as well that he caught.  

 

I also watched his highlights of the Miami playoff game, 3 of his 6 catches were anything but "right to him."  Great catches.  

 

I then compared that to Allen's passes to Diggs in the same playoff game, whereas both posted about the same stats, and all but one pass to Diggs was on the money, and the one that wasn't also wasn't far off at all, in fact it may have deliberately been thrown slightly under to avoid the defender.  

 

I also noticed that not one of Diggs' passes was on a broken play whereas about half of Davis' seem to be.  That's relevant as well.  

 

IMO fans are being too hasty re: Davis.  

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

Well if he was/is a 3 down back, does that mean we only need  1 ?....and what did we trade for Harris?

 

That's completely irrelevant to the conversation he and I were having.  There's no reason to go down that tangent.  

 

I will say however that Harris I don't expect much from.  He seems like Antowain Smith lite.  His best games were against us and I'm guessing that's why Beane liked him.  He's a JAG rusher.  But to your point, if Cook was going to be the main ball carrier, then why all the talk of needing a RB, and secondly, why sign Harris.  

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

I've watched Marino's video and he did not show any video at all.  I have a difficult time with just talk not accompanied by video.  It' one thing to say something, it's another to back it up with evidence.  

 

I also watched this one;       Gabe Davis' Top Plays Of The 2022 NFL Season | Buffalo Bills    It won't link here for some reason.  

 

I saw at least five routes the he ran, and that video was over half of his catches.  I saw some very clutch nigh uncatchable passes in there as well that he caught.  

 

I also watched his highlights of the Miami playoff game, 3 of his 6 catches were anything but "right to him."  Great catches.  

 

I then compared that to Allen's passes to Diggs in the same playoff game, whereas both posted about the same stats, and all but one pass to Diggs was on the money, and the one that wasn't also wasn't far off at all, in fact it may have deliberately been thrown slightly under to avoid the defender.  

 

I also noticed that not one of Diggs' passes was on a broken play whereas about half of Davis' seem to be.  That's relevant as well.  

 

IMO fans are being too hasty re: Davis.  

 

 

 

 

Lack of video a definite deficit. Marino has a good reputation, apparently. I never watched him before that posted video, so I don't have an informed opinion beyond his reputation. I'm not happy with Davis, but I suspect no one better is going to be on the team to challenge him, so he'll have next year to prove himself one way or the other.

[2ForMacAdoo]

On 4/14/2023 at 9:30 AM, nosejob said:

I'm expecting surprises. Did we not learn anything last year? Sure Ed may have a good year, but in all likelihood someone will pay him stupid money next year.

I think Beane will take advantage of that during the draft....via trades. Let me dream a little....

 

rd.1.pick 27  Calijah Kancey DT

rd.2  Trade  Oliver to his hometown Houston for 33, 73 and 188. We could throw in a late 2024 if need be.

rd.2 pick 33 Jack Campbell

 

Trade: 59, 91 and 205 to Seattle for no. 37

rd. 2 Steve Avila (played C 2021, G 2022 and has played at both G spots)

 

rd.3 pick 73 Isaiah Foskey Edge   He can be listed and lined up at OLB while providing pass rush and or used at DE depending on Von's near and distant future.

 

rd.4 pick 130 BPA

rd.5 pick 137 BPA

rd.6 pick 188 BPA

 

I may have screwed up somewhere but all the trades were to teams with 2 picks in said rds. Flame away

You're assuming that hometown Houston will take hometown Ed's $10million+ 1 year salary off our hands and give us a 2nd, 3rd and 6th in return? In a dream world, sure, but why? When they can just wait out the 2023-2024 year, sign him to a mega contract if they like him so much and surrender zero draft assets to acquire him? Unfortunately, not happening.

[T master]

No matter what position the value is definitely in the eye of the team that is picking them . Each & every team has their own determination where a players value is for the round they are choosing them in Beane may have Campbell as a second round pick but the Ravens may have him higher .

 

GO back a couple of years when the Bills traded with the Chiefs & they took Mahomes & the Bills got Tre they apparently didn't think as highly of Mahomes as the chiefs did and look at them now . Tre is good but well you know where i'm going with this .

 

So definitely the personal preference is in who is doing the picking of each player .

[nosejob]

14 minutes ago, T master said:

No matter what position the value is definitely in the eye of the team that is picking them . Each & every team has their own determination where a players value is for the round they are choosing them in Beane may have Campbell as a second round pick but the Ravens may have him higher .

 

GO back a couple of years when the Bills traded with the Chiefs & they took Mahomes & the Bills got Tre they apparently didn't think as highly of Mahomes as the chiefs did and look at them now . Tre is good but well you know where i'm going with this .

 

So definitely the personal preference is in who is doing the picking of each player .

A good example might be Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.