Wish they would just sign Klein at lb

[Motorin']

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't recall that.  It makes sense, in that he's very Milano-like in physique and intangibles.

 

However, I stand by my assessment that if he was, Milano's health and his snap usage means it's a pretty poor use of a 3rd round pick.  Sort of along the lines of GB drafting Jordan Love in the 1st and letting him sit on the bench for 3 seasons.

 

 

 

I never understood the pick. Maybe Bernard will prove us wrong. But knowing that Edmunds future was uncertain, I would have taken Leo Chenal with that pick (if I was determined to add a LB). 

[BADOLBILZ]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Then that's a *****-up use of a third round pick, if they intended Bernard as "insurance" for a player at a position which takes 100% of the snaps when healthy.

 

In the last 2 years, since Beane and McDermott gave their "the only thing, and Matt knows this, is availability" before they re-signed him, Milano has played 18 and 17 out of 19 games the last 2 seasons, so possibly he may (as @BADOLBILZ once pointed out Eric Wood and another player whose name escapes me did) have learned how to play a bit more within himself so he lowers his injury risk instead of going balls-to-the-wall every play.  Time will tell.  I believe I've seen changes.

 

Anyway: Logically, a third round pick should be used on a player you intend to see the field regularly as a starter or as a backup at a position where rotation is expected every game, not on a backup to see the field 3 games in 2 seasons.  That's where you draft a guy in the late rounds. 

 

Look at our other 3rd round picks:

2018: Harrison Phillips was a backup but at a position where McD is married to a rotation.  He saw 38% of the snaps in 16 games his rookie year and was starting to see more before his ACL year 2.  41% his 3rd year, 55% his 4th.  He's a backup, but at a position where backups see 1/3 to 1/2 of the snaps every game, and they moved on when it was clear he wasn't good enough to start for them.  Left in FA.  Now starting for Minn, a playoff team.

2019: Devin Singletary, starter at position where McD is married to rotation.  67% of the snaps his rookie year, 62% overall.  Left in FA.

          Dawson Knox, starter.  64% his rookie year, 87% and 80% his last 2 seasons, Extended.

2020:Zach Moss, backup at a position with rotation, 45% of the snaps his rookie year, 42% of the 2nd year. Traded because he wasn't working out

2021: Spencer Brown, starting at RT.  Whether he should be or not is another question, but the intent was clearly to start him.  Like John Miller, our 2015 3rd round G who has since started for 2 other teams, Brown can play in the NFL, just maybe not at the top level we want, so perhaps an upgrade is needed.

 

The point is, while a 3rd round pick is not a sure bet as a starter or a long-term building block, it better be used on a player who will see the field regularly. 

 

I would say before 2022, the Bills were 4 out of 5 in drafting a player who can see the field regularly with their 3rd round pick, with Zach Moss as a bust.  2 out of 4 in getting a player who starts for them, with the jury still out on #5 (Spencer Brown).  That's actually pretty good - success rate in the 3rd I think is 20 or 30% league wide.

 

And there's this:  Last year, we went into the regular season with a former 5th round pick (traded a 1st) at #1 WR, a 4th round pick as #2, and 2 5th round picks (McKenzie and Shakir) as the #3 WR.  WR, one of the highest paid, highest value skill positions in the draft with most ROI to get high production from draft picks.

 

Yeah, No.  If the Bills drafted Bernard with the idea he would back up Milano and be a depth piece at LB, that was a terrible use of a 3rd round pick, especially a guy who Lance Zierlein of NFL.com forecast as a 5th round pick.

 

I mean, maybe you're right, Lord knows his lone start last season was NOT promising, but I hope not.  Dylan Parham, who started every game for Las Vegas at G last season, was drafted one pick later than Bernard.  Parham did OK as a run blocker and struggled in pass protection, but then, so did our FA signing Saffold.  So it's not as though there wasn't a guy on the board they could draft and try to develop as a starter.

 

 

 

Yeah Eric Wood had to learn to control his competitive nature on the field to manage his health.   He had his leg snapped under the weight of a DT that he was unnecessarily trying to win a wrestling match with and also tore his knee up chasing DeMarcus Ware downfield just in hopes of getting a big hit on him when he was clearly of no use to the RB in the play.  

 

Fred Taylor was the other player I've talked about who learned how to stay healthy.   He and his agent gathered data to identify players who had managed to keep themselves healthy and reached out to many of them and found out how they took care of themselves and he modeled his behavior after them and suddenly he went from a 10 game per year average for his first 4 seasons to 15 game per year over his next 5 seasons.

 

Part of the challenge is learning to keep themselves healthy BEFORE they've done irreversible damage.    Hopefully Milano is in that category.     

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Then that's a *****-up use of a third round pick, if they intended Bernard as "insurance" for a player at a position which takes 100% of the snaps when healthy.

 

In the last 2 years, since Beane and McDermott gave their "the only thing, and Matt knows this, is availability" before they re-signed him, Milano has played 18 and 17 out of 19 games the last 2 seasons, so possibly he may (as @BADOLBILZ once pointed out Eric Wood and another player whose name escapes me did) have learned how to play a bit more within himself so he lowers his injury risk instead of going balls-to-the-wall every play.  Time will tell.  I believe I've seen changes.

 

Anyway: Logically, a third round pick should be used on a player you intend to see the field regularly as a starter or as a backup at a position where rotation is expected every game, not on a backup to see the field 3 games in 2 seasons.  That's where you draft a guy in the late rounds. 

 

Look at our other 3rd round picks:

2018: Harrison Phillips was a backup but at a position where McD is married to a rotation.  He saw 38% of the snaps in 16 games his rookie year and was starting to see more before his ACL year 2.  41% his 3rd year, 55% his 4th.  He's a backup, but at a position where backups see 1/3 to 1/2 of the snaps every game, and they moved on when it was clear he wasn't good enough to start for them.  Left in FA.  Now starting for Minn, a playoff team.

2019: Devin Singletary, starter at position where McD is married to rotation.  67% of the snaps his rookie year, 62% overall.  Left in FA.

          Dawson Knox, starter.  64% his rookie year, 87% and 80% his last 2 seasons, Extended.

2020:Zach Moss, backup at a position with rotation, 45% of the snaps his rookie year, 42% of the 2nd year. Traded because he wasn't working out

2021: Spencer Brown, starting at RT.  Whether he should be or not is another question, but the intent was clearly to start him.  Like John Miller, our 2015 3rd round G who has since started for 2 other teams, Brown can play in the NFL, just maybe not at the top level we want, so perhaps an upgrade is needed.

 

The point is, while a 3rd round pick is not a sure bet as a starter or a long-term building block, it better be used on a player who will see the field regularly. 

 

I would say before 2022, the Bills were 4 out of 5 in drafting a player who can see the field regularly with their 3rd round pick, with Zach Moss as a bust.  2 out of 4 in getting a player who starts for them, with the jury still out on #5 (Spencer Brown).  That's actually pretty good - success rate in the 3rd I think is 20 or 30% league wide.

 

And there's this:  Last year, we went into the regular season with a former 5th round pick (traded a 1st) at #1 WR, a 4th round pick as #2, and 2 5th round picks (McKenzie and Shakir) as the #3 WR.  WR, one of the highest paid, highest value skill positions in the draft with most ROI to get high production from draft picks.

 

Yeah, No.  If the Bills drafted Bernard with the idea he would back up Milano and be a depth piece at LB, that was a terrible use of a 3rd round pick, especially a guy who Lance Zierlein of NFL.com forecast as a 5th round pick.

 

I mean, maybe you're right, Lord knows his lone start last season was NOT promising, but I hope not.  Dylan Parham, who started every game for Las Vegas at G last season, was drafted one pick later than Bernard.  Parham did OK as a run blocker and struggled in pass protection, but then, so did our FA signing Saffold.  So it's not as though there wasn't a guy on the board they could draft and try to develop as a starter.

 

Bernard was drafted to eventually start when Edmunds walked. They knew Edmunds was walking, because they let him play on his fifth year without a deal.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I think it has a lot to do with money and missing out on the 3rd rounder for Edmunds 

 

Either way,  they definitely have a plan in place.  Even if it's Dodson or Benard. We were 4-0 w Dodson last year 

No NFL team is rushing to sign Klein.  He will be available if the draft doesn't produce Campbell or Sanders.  Dodson albeit nowhere near Tremaine could hold down things for a few games. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

I mean Benard was a 3rd rounder and didn't they move up for him?  He looked lost out there but I think it was playbook issues more than skill. I'd be fine with him ,Dodson and maybe a day 3 pick battling it out. 

Rather go ol/TE/WR in 1st 2 rounds 

Can Bernard get bigger? 

 

Because in addition to seemingly being out of place, at 225 pounds he looked like a Safety in the middle of the defense. 

 

We've seen this over the years as Bills fans with guys like Marcus Buggs, John Digiorgio, Alvin Bowen, Nic Harris, John Wendling, Keith Ellison, Coy Wire, kind of small converted safeties masquerading as linebackers. 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Yantha]

I never understood the Bernard pick either, but I think that he's going to be a solid player. Starting material is yet to be determined, but at least a good backup.  This is not a "bust" pick.

[I'm Spartacus]

Back to Klein, I  think he is a sure tackler and has a nose for where the football is going. He hustles well and is a good back up for the Bills.

[I'm Spartacus]

I don't understand why the Bills refuse to get big, thumper type linebackers. I want some meat in there to lay out running backs or receivers going over the middle. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

3 minutes ago, I'm Spartacus said:

I don't understand why the Bills refuse to get big, thumper type linebackers. I want some meat in there to lay out running backs or receivers going over the middle. 

They want sideline to sideline guys who can cover. In todays NFL, you must be able to stop the pass. 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Bernard was drafted to eventually start when Edmunds walked. They knew Edmunds was walking, because they let him play on his fifth year without a deal.

I agree with you, they were taking a shot at a replacement for Edmunds.  A little too early to call him a bust since they planned on a year to get him ready.  However, I haven't seen anything to make me comfortable with Bernard starting.  

 

If they draft Campbell and have Bernard as the competition/backup then they don't need Klein.  If they don't get an LB early, it looks like they could still pick up Klein later.  So, outside of the alleviating the nervousness the OP, I don't see it as prudent to sign Klein at this time.

[I'm Spartacus]

10 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

They want sideline to sideline guys who can cover. In todays NFL, you must be able to stop the pass. 

I understand, just an old school guy that likes the big Butkis type hits. Miss that with the Bills.

[hondo in seattle]

9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

They want sideline to sideline guys who can cover. In todays NFL, you must be able to stop the pass. 

 

Yeah.  McD's defense is designed the stop the pass first and the run second.  That's why we mostly run a 4-2-5 defense.  And that's why the MLB isn't a thumper.  We called Edmunds a Middle Linebacker but that's a misnomer.   There is no LB in the middle of a 4-2.  Edmunds was a big, rangy coverage LB, not an old school Dick Butkus type.    As much as he was unappreciated by many Bills fans, he'll be hard to replace.  

 

He's not cast from the same mold but I'd still like to see Klein signed just to have someone in that spot.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

I never understood the pick. Maybe Bernard will prove us wrong. But knowing that Edmunds future was uncertain, I would have taken Leo Chenal with that pick (if I was determined to add a LB). 

 

Certainly if they drafted Bernard intending him to just sit on the bench and back up Milano, it seems like a wasted pick

 

If they intended him to back up Edmunds, he seems like the wrong body type, too small, arms too short.  He can theoretically pack some muscle onto his frame as Milano did but he can't change his height or his arm length.

 

I wonder if they thought about trading Milano and keeping Edmunds, and that's why they drafted Bernard?

Edited March 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

43 minutes ago, Yantha said:

I never understood the Bernard pick either, but I think that he's going to be a solid player. Starting material is yet to be determined, but at least a good backup.  This is not a "bust" pick.

 

Just to be clear, I'm not calling him a bust, that would be unfair based on 1 start.  He was playing a lot on teams last year. 

 

But in McDermott's Bills defense, if you look up the snap counts from any game 2019-on,  Milano, Edmunds, Johnson, Poyer, Hyde, White, and Jackson would play every snap (barring injury, avert!). 

 

Now it doesn't have to be that way, but as long as it is, I'm saying it's a poor use of a third round pick to draft a backup at a position where you don't typically rotate.

 

43 minutes ago, I'm Spartacus said:

Back to Klein, I  think he is a sure tackler and has a nose for where the football is going. He hustles well and is a good back up for the Bills.

 

He's all those things.  He's a smart football player too, by all accounts.  The only critique I have is that part of his get-up-and-go has got-up-and-went with age.

[FireChans]

59 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Certainly if they drafted Bernard intending him to just sit on the bench and back up Milano, it seems like a wasted pick

 

If they intended him to back up Edmunds, he seems like the wrong body type, too small, arms too short.  He can theoretically pack some muscle onto his frame as Milano did but he can't change his height or his arm length.

 

I wonder if they thought about trading Milano and keeping Edmunds, and that's why they drafted Bernard?

I'll take instincts and a nose for the football over height and arm length all day.  So let's hope Bernard has those.

[freddyjj]

I wonder if McD will now use 3 LBs as a standard run formation?   Using a new LB (Campbell via Draft or Zac Cunningham as FA) and then using Milano and Bernard as OLBs.  In Carolina he often used a 4-3 with Keuchly at MLB and Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson at OLBs.  

 

In 2017 with Bills he used a 4-3 with Lorax, Preston Brown and/or Humber/Milano.  

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

I wonder if McD will now use 3 LBs as a standard run formation?   Using a new LB (Campbell via Draft or Zac Cunningham as FA) and then using Milano and Bernard as OLBs.  In Carolina he often used a 4-3 with Keuchly at MLB and Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson at OLBs.  

 

In 2017 with Bills he used a 4-3 with Lorax, Preston Brown and/or Humber/Milano.  

 

Great memory and an interesting point.

[BullBuchanan]

I remember Klein was great in 2018. I had him on my fantasy team and it seemed he was on the verge of a breakout. He's been pretty much ass before and since.

[3rdand12]

8 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I'd rather have Klein than Matakevich. At least Klein can play his position. 

Obviously I wanted Wagner.

Best case scenario they replace the MLB spot in the second round. Worst case they let Bernard play there. 

the fact that Wagner went for 7 tells us Bills have a plan
Right ?

7 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

Time to move on I think.  His contract is up, and there's no cap hit.  There are better options, even on our current roster.

-  Terrel Bernard is easily better than Klein I'd say

-  And Dodson = Klein.

 

Add a linebacker early in the draft and perhaps a post draft cast-off for depth, and we're good.

 

Klein is a smart instinctive player who plays downhill well.
Limited physically and not someone you want trailing a TE or RB out of the back field perhaps.

 But with help he can dissect.
Get me a modern day AJ Klein who can play some laterally and take care of under in zone out of the draft.
But for now ? Keep him until we have his upgrade. in that style of play

 

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Campbell is the only true MLB.  Sanders can play MLB, but is a pass rusher/linebacker hybrid.   

 

That's about it.  Everyone else is more of Milano type for us. 

so.. We're screwed pretty much ?

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Can Bernard get bigger? 

 

Because in addition to seemingly being out of place, at 225 pounds he looked like a Safety in the middle of the defense. 

 

We've seen this over the years as Bills fans with guys like Marcus Buggs, John Digiorgio, Alvin Bowen, Nic Harris, John Wendling, Keith Ellison, Coy Wire, kind of small converted safeties masquerading as linebackers. 

 

Solid list of fails