Bernard vs Dodson: Tale of the Tape

[MrEpsYtown]

For fun: 

 

 

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

Typically, Beane has had the luxury of filling every hole in FA before going into the draft.

One thing he has spoken about is how things have changed as the team fully matured.  It stands to reason that he and his team would

need to adjust from the past drafting scheme into a new one.

 

If Beane goes into the draft needing Edmunds replacement, I can see he would have multiple LBs targeted in the 1st 3rds.

With pick #27 being on the cusp he will have to let the draft come to him and see if a trade down will be there or pick a player at #27

from another position.

 

 

[ScottLaw]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Yeah, I think it is a really tricky spot. You get that 5th-year option which makes things strange cuz you are paying a backer 11-13 million. However, at 27, there is a good chance you land the best LB in the draft, or the best tight end in the draft, maybe the best center or guard. So the positional value, to your point, is probably not quite there. The value/upside pick there is going to be a guy like Nolan Smith to sack the QB. I know it's annoying to0 take DL again, but if they don't get to the QB this team is going to lose in the playoffs again. If one of those top receivers is there, you take him 100%. 

 

All that said, if they believe Campbell is a do-over on Tremaine with better instincts, then you do it. You have a cheap starter at mike for 4 years, and it makes sense to have a cheap starter next to Milano. At the same time is it the best first-round pick value? meh...but 27 this year is just a second-round pick anyway, our second is really a third. The first round is for QBs, true left tackles, pass rushers, and corners. Typically if you go another way, there is no boom with the bust.   

 

My gut, based on really no evidence is that they love Trenton Simpson. Simpson is a guy from Charlotte, a military family...a kid McBeane probably would have heard about when he was in high school and have probably followed his career. I am speculating there, but he really fits the mold. I like Campbell better, but I am just not sure if they go there. The fact that Kuecly is training with him is very interesting though. 

Yea… I mean Im just done with the defensive heavy investment…. 27 is a tricky spot. I’d prefer a trade down and load up on value on offense with the extra picks but my guess is LB will be the pick as it stands now…. It’s brought this team nothing but historically AWFUL defensive performances despite a massive investment… ultimately they obviously are the decision makers, but my guess is there continued favoritism to that side of the ball will be their gradual downfall and will predict as much this season with the Bengals and KC clearly better and Mia/Jets(assuming Rodgers)right in their heels or even.

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… I mean Im just done with the defensive heavy investment…. 27 is a tricky spot. I’d prefer a trade down and load up on value on offense with the extra picks but my guess is LB will be the pick as it stands now…. It’s brought this team nothing but historically AWFUL defensive performances despite a massive investment… ultimately they obviously are the decision makers, but my guess is there continued favoritism to that side of the ball will be their gradual downfall and will predict as much this season with the Bengals and KC clearly better and Mia/Jets(assuming Rodgers)right in their heels or even.

 

I commented on that in my post above yours.  Beane can't force a trade down.  He will probably need to draft a LB but just because some think

it's Campbell and he takes him at #27 is huge speculation to me.  If Beane doesn't get a MLB in the FA he has to have multiple LBs targeted

in different rounds of the draft and with only 6 picks he can't have the luxury to move up in any of the rounds to take one.

[gonzo1105]

Tyrel Dodson ain’t starting. Bernard or Spector will end up getting that job 

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I commented on that in my post above yours.  Beane can't force a trade down.  He will probably need to draft a LB but just because some think

it's Campbell and he takes him at #27 is huge speculation to me.  If Beane doesn't get a MLB in the FA he has to have multiple LBs targeted

in different rounds of the draft and with only 6 picks he can't have the luxury to move up in any of the rounds to take one.

This is exactly what I’ve done in my live draft on a different site. Traded down to 27 to 30 then 48. Have 5 top 100 picks and the first two went on a RT and TE and I’m targeting WR or Safety with my next pick. Either Tyler Scott or Sydney Brown from Illinois 

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Tyrel Dodson ain’t starting. Bernard or Spector will end up getting that job 

This is exactly what I’ve done in my live draft on a different site. Traded down to 27 to 30 then 48. Have 5 top 100 picks and the first two went on a RT and TE and I’m targeting WR or Safety with my next pick. Either Tyler Scott or Sydney Brown from Illinois 

 

That would be great.  Let's hope that the Eagles and Lions want to trade UP.

[MrEpsYtown]

12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I commented on that in my post above yours.  Beane can't force a trade down.  He will probably need to draft a LB but just because some think

it's Campbell and he takes him at #27 is huge speculation to me.  If Beane doesn't get a MLB in the FA he has to have multiple LBs targeted

in different rounds of the draft and with only 6 picks he can't have the luxury to move up in any of the rounds to take one.

 

22 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yea… I mean Im just done with the defensive heavy investment…. 27 is a tricky spot. I’d prefer a trade down and load up on value on offense with the extra picks but my guess is LB will be the pick as it stands now…. It’s brought this team nothing but historically AWFUL defensive performances despite a massive investment… ultimately they obviously are the decision makers, but my guess is there continued favoritism to that side of the ball will be their gradual downfall and will predict as much this season with the Bengals and KC clearly better and Mia/Jets(assuming Rodgers)right in their heels or even.

 

And I do these mock drafts for fun, just to kind of see how things go. I know it's not any kind of scientific method, but it is interesting.

 

Sometimes Zay Flowers or one of the other WR falls. Mostly it's Flowers or Addison. Sometimes Mayer is there. Sometimes it's Bijan Robinson. Most of the time the BPA is Nolan Smith or Bryan Breese. It's so hard to tell. I agree.

 

If they leave MLB the way it is right now, that is who they will draft. My hope is that they add a starter there so they can actually go BPA. The issue is that the only real starters left are Wagner or Tranquill. 

 

If they add a mike, to me,  if it isn't a tight end or receiver, it's going to be an edge player. 

[BBFL]

What about converting a big body SS to MLB?…

[BeefCurtns]

Maybe not the thread for this hot sport’s opinion but with the exception of Milano and Poyer the Bills Defense is Soft. Neither of these guys is a nasty thumper and that’s what we need out of our MLB. He needs to set the tone so that we don’t have another Bengals game on Defense ever again. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

MLB plan at this point is just speculation.  I will reserve judgment on McD and Beane after we see who else they bring in.

I'm happy they did not commit to Edmunds long term. 

I hated the Bernard pick last year and still do.  Could care less if they brought back Dodson. 

Honestly bringing back Poyer, the fact Hamlin probably will be back and was at least decent, and Benford possibly moving to safety allows them to draft a MLB in the first two rounds. I want Wagner but I'd be fine with a MLB in round 1 or 2 as long as the other pick is a WR with size. Then pick 3 and 4 can go OT and C/G.

Edited March 18 by Ethan in Cleveland

[John from Riverside]

They wouldn’t really going to the season was Spector ais the starter would they?

 

 

they didn’t do anything with him last year they would suggest they had that kind of confidence

[SoCal Deek]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

MLB plan at this point is just speculation.  I will reserve judgment on McD and Beane after we see who else they bring in.

I'm happy they did not commit to Edmunds long term. 

I hated the Bernard pick last year and still do.  Could care less if they brought back Dodson. 

Honestly bringing back Poyer, the fact Hamlin probably will be back and was at least decent, and Benford possibly moving to safety allows them to draft a MLB in the first two rounds. I want Wagner but I'd be fine with a MLB in round 1 or 2 as long as the other pick is a WR with size. Then pick 3 and 4 can go OT and C/G.

I share a lot of your thoughts and don’t care too much about the exact draft order…but think about how many picks we need to get really right in order to make any significant impact on 2023. WR, MLB, possibly two at OL, and many would add RB….frankly, I’m not liking our chances. 

[MrEpsYtown]

46 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

They wouldn’t really going to the season was Spector ais the starter would they?

 

 

they didn’t do anything with him last year they would suggest they had that kind of confidence

No shot. There is zero chance any of these guys on the roster are starting next year. Very begrudgingly, maybe, Dodson has a tiny chance because he has been in the system so long. It’ either Wagner, Anthony Walker, or a draft pick. That’s all that is left unless someone unexpected gets released. 

[SCBills]

Other teams have Bernard’s and Spector’s playing for them.  Contenders even.  
 

There’s no reason, other that utter draft failure, that a RD3 LB and RD7 LB who both spent a year on the active roster can’t be in play for a starting spot on a team that is loaded with investment at LITERALLY every other position on Defense.  
 

Dodson seems more like a depth/special teams guy given how we value athleticism. 
 

If I had to guess .. yea, we’ll draft a LB.  And I’ll get it, but I’ll also throw up in my mouth unless Free Agency takes an unexpected turn. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 3/16/2023 at 11:54 AM, MJS said:

I hope not. Dodson is clearly a backup. Bernard barely played last year and is undersized. If he is the plan, it is a very risky plan. The Bills at least need to bring in a decent veteran to compete.

 

I think the OP is more right then wrong. Being a 3rd round pick going into his second year, Bernard simply must get on the field in some capacity. You don't use day two picks on special team only players. 

 

As for a decent veteran, I agree but we probably disagree on who fits that description. I'm not seeing a Bobby Wagner or Lavonte David. It's going to be a veteran LB that I have likely never heard of. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

On 3/16/2023 at 3:11 PM, 947 said:

I thought Bernard had promise, but then I saw the 1 game he started. He was so bad that didn't look like he belonged on an NFL field, I don't think he played another snap all year after that. Aside from the fumble return TD in preseason, I didn't see any of the speed that was talked about. He looked no faster than AJ Klein in coverage, and he appeared to be about the same size as James Cook. He needs another 10-20lbs, hopefully that's what he's working on.

 

I'm still hopeful for him in the future, but there's no way McBeane trust him to be a regular this year.

 

Agreed. It was almost as if Bernard did not know how to run.

 

I think the “plan” is to draft a MLB in the first round this year. 

[Beck Water]

On 3/17/2023 at 9:00 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

For fun: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OK, basic RAS question:

 

I somehow didn't pick up on height and weight being one of 10 factors in RAS.  How does that work?

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 3/16/2023 at 12:11 PM, 947 said:

I thought Bernard had promise, but then I saw the 1 game he started. He was so bad that didn't look like he belonged on an NFL field,

 

 

I don't know why but I don't even remember seeing him on the field at all. But I don't doubt that he wasn't ready. 

 

The guy I do remember is Jaquan Johnson. Boy did he look bad. Especially in the first Jets game. 

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

They wouldn’t really going to the season was Spector ais the starter would they?

 

 

they didn’t do anything with him last year they would suggest they had that kind of confidence

Let's not forget Frazier is gone. McD said he wants to get more aggressive with and edge. I think he will use a lot more 4-3 and blitz some more. Different scheming and play calling with what we have could make a pretty good upgrade to our defense alone. I'd be happy with one of the top 3 LBs at 27, but they very well may not make it there.

 

This board will implode when he takes the DT from Pitt who projects as the next Aaron Donald....but I wouldn't complain.

Edited March 18 by nosejob

[JayBaller10]

6 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

OK, basic RAS question:

 

I somehow didn't pick up on height and weight being one of 10 factors in RAS.  How does that work?

Height and weight are measured against others at that position, so if a MLB is freakishly athletic, but only 5’10” and 220lbs, both will count against him and lower his relative athletic score.