Josh Allen Era - Ch. 1 - "Frazier-Edmunds Defense" is Complete, what will define the next chapter?

[First Round Bust]

Chapter 2 - Josh gets Cashes-In...Bean goes lean on roster and cap...can we compete or do we have to blow-it up....i

you think the 2023 cap is a challenge check Bills 2024 cap where top 3 account for almost 100 million....

[Don Otreply]

13 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So the other 17 games don’t count? Also, lot of factors, especially this year. 

Don’t be silly, no one is saying that, the constant inability / refusal to make meaningful adjustments in the post season is of no concern for you? Its as if you are purposefully being obtuse, or is it that you like arguing for the sake of arguing…

[Shaw66]

I think it's a great observation.  I don't have any answers about what the future looks like, but I think the point about the end of a chapter is an excellent thing to consider.    

 

It's not just Frazier and Edmunds.  It's Poyer and/or Hyde and/or Oliver.  And/or who knows what surprises?

 

And I think on offense it's chapter 2, also.  Chapter 1 had Brown and Beasley and Diggs.   I don't know what the future is, but Diggs is a quirky enough guy that he could be gone.  Hard to imagine, given his talent, but it could happen.   If the Bills become a champion, they will have an offensive line that looks different.   Morse won't be here forever, the guards are a work in process, for sure, and I wouldn't feel confident betting on the future of either of the tackles.  

 

Throw in the constant changes in the league, the re-emergence of the running game as an essential part of any winning offense, and I think we're looking at a chapter 2 that is mighty different from chapter 1. 

 

People here are saying it may be a rough couple of seasons, and McDermott and Beane could be gone, but I don't see it that way.  This team may be transitioning to chapter 2, but I don't expect that they will sacrifice winning while the transition happens.   You can argue if you want, and I could make up the arguments, but I think all you have to do is look back to McDermott's season 1.   That group simply was not championship caliber, not close, but they won games and got to the playoffs.   In 2023, in much the same way, the Bills may have several positions in transition, but they'll still have Allen, and I don't expect the winning will stop.  McDermott will do his job, and the team will win.  

 

The transition of players is ongoing, on this team and on every team.   That's a given in the NFL.  The big questions for the future are (1) will Dorsey grow into the OC job?   If not, McDermott and Beane will have to make a move, and they will have to get the replacement right.  And (2) will they get DC job right?  Maybe this season they're auditioning someone for the job, but by the end of 2023, they need to know whose the DC of the future.  

[Lost]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

People here are saying it may be a rough couple of seasons, and McDermott and Beane could be gone, but I don't see it that way.  This team may be transitioning to chapter 2, but I don't expect that they will sacrifice winning while the transition happens.   You can argue if you want, and I could make up the arguments, but I think all you have to do is look back to McDermott's season 1.   That group simply was not championship caliber, not close, but they won games and got to the playoffs.   In 2023, in much the same way, the Bills may have several positions in transition, but they'll still have Allen, and I don't expect the winning will stop.  McDermott will do his job, and the team will win.  

 

 

 

This season is far different from season 1 of McD.   His first season started a new era from being perennial losers to finally making the playoffs.  Now we are a perennial contenders with an aging generational QB that seems to consistently get outcoached deep in the playoffs.   Fans have higher expectations these days and far less patience.

[Nextmanup]

15 hours ago, Chaos said:

The first Chapter of the Josh Allen era had some great successes, annual playoff appearances, a championship appearance, and some moments of dominance.  The defining feature of the rest of the team was the emphasis on the Frazier-Edmunds defense scheme.  This chapter is completly closed with today's signing of  Edmunds by the Bears. 

As we being Josh Allen Era - Chapter 2, what will be the Bills primary emphasis be to get better results in Chapter 2, than Chapter 1.  I was not a huge Frazier or Edmunds fan, but they provided the teams most recognizable elements (aside from Josh himself) ?

A much better analysis would suggest that LAST year was the first year in the true new era---the Dorsey offense era, which didn't go well.  

 

The Daboll era was Chapter 1 of the Josh Allen years.

 

We are now in year 2 of the Dorsey era, or chapter 2.

 

What will define Chapter 2?  Whether or not we appear in a Super Bowl, most likely.

 

Another year of disjointed, disappointing offense and Dorsey will be gone.  

 

 

 

 

14 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

So the other 17 games don’t count? Also, lot of factors, especially this year. 

This Bills team is not going to be measured by regular season results.  Some franchises measure their success with championships, and even fire head coaches in playoff seasons that ultimately disappoint.

 

I know Bills fans have no clue what that attitude is about, but try to imagine it.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Nextmanup

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

 

This season is far different from season 1 of McD.   His first season started a new era from being perennial losers to finally making the playoffs.  Now we are a perennial contenders with an aging generational QB that seems to consistently get outcoached deep in the playoffs.   Fans have higher expectations these days and far less patience.

You missed the point.   Some people here are suggesting the wheels will fall off, Bills will miss the playoffs, while they transition to chapter 2.   That's what I was responding to - I said the Bills will continue to win during the transition, for the same reason they won in McD's first season.   McD will find a way. 

 

I suppose one problem with McD could be that his greatest skill is to get average players to win more than average.  Whether he can win more than average is the question.   

[fan_in_tx]

15 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Aggressive/more risky defense to force some key sacks or turnovers has been 2 years in the waiting.  It's the key to slowing down Mahomes/Burrow led offenses.

 

Add some firepower to the offense, and some speed at S.  Elam in year 2, Tre back healthy, and switch to a dime defense to get more speed on 3rd downs (depending what we do with LB position, and would require likely drafting another slot corner).

 

Does T Johnson move to Safety?  Sure Tackler , hard hitter under the Hyde guidance?  Thoughts

[MasterStrategist]

4 minutes ago, fan_in_tx said:

Does T Johnson move to Safety?  Sure Tackler , hard hitter under the Hyde guidance?  Thoughts

Absolutely not.  Taron is a very good nickle/slot, and there's a clear drop off from him to Siran Neal.  Keep him there.

 

We should be looking to get some depth at nickle corner though, and alot of teams are moving to 3-safety looks...I think this is what we will do, with Benford as our 3rd safety.

 

Safety is looking like an early draft pick, ie: sometime on day 2 of the draft.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

Absolutely not.  Taron is a very good nickle/slot, and there's a clear drop off from him to Siran Neal.  Keep him there.

 

We should be looking to get some depth at nickle corner though, and alot of teams are moving to 3-safety looks...I think this is what we will do, with Benford as our 3rd safety.

 

Safety is looking like an early draft pick, ie: sometime on day 2 of the draft.

None of us knows, but I'm expecting it will be Johnson.  Safety is the leadership position on this team.  Safeties make the rest of the defense effective.  McDermott will want quality, senior leadership at safety.  It wasn't by accident that both Poyer and Hyde arrived in Buffalo at the very beginning for McDermott.   

 

Frankly, I think Johnson is so good that it's a luxury to have him in the slot.  Unless Beane pulls some kind of rabbit out of a hat, the Bills can't afford that luxury.   If you're going to have a project on the field, you'd much rather have the project at nickel, with safeties behind him to help as needed.  

[Fleezoid]

When will Chapter 2 be on Netflix? 

 

[mjt328]

5 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

That's a pretty dark summary of where our team stands right now.  Do you think at this point in his career that Rodgers is leading the Jets anywhere?  He is done.  He knows it.  And so do the Packers.   The Dolphins are the Dolphins.  Lots of hype, but they still have Tua, a bad O line, and a bunch of overpriced names like Bradley Chubb on defense.  The Bills are still the class of the division.  The Bernard pick was questionable.  Not sure what they saw in this kid that makes him a 3rd round pick.  I think Baylen Spector has some upside.  Kid played at Clemson.  They teach strong defense there.   And he looked good in the preseason.  But then the Biils never dressed him.  They need to start playing guys they draft.  

 

Aaron Rodgers was the back-to-back MVP in 2020-2021.  His "bad" 2022 season was still pretty good by most other QB standards. 

The Jets roster otherwise is stacked with young talent.  They have been held back by poor QB play.  Even a 2022 repeat season from Rodgers probably wins them the division.

 

The only issue with the Dolphins is the health of Tua Tagovailoa.  His first concussion issues derailed the team's hot start.  Missing the playoffs cost them a Wild Card victory (over us).  Guys with head injuries may be more likely to suffer them again.  But not guaranteed.  Dismissing them because they "are the Dolphins" is the same mistake the Patriots made with us a few years back.

 

5 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

 

I don't know a lot about McGovern.  But he played a lot on a good Cowboys O line.  He has to be an upgrade over the turnstile that was Saffold.  Beane has to start hitting on his free agent signings and draft choices.  The roster is not nearly as good as we thought going into last season.  But its not a mess, except for the O line. 

 

Letting Edmunds go was a smart move by the team.  Can't pay big money for mediocrity.  Lets hope two months from now after the draft and free agency are over, that the roster is taking shape in a real solid way.  Go Bills.

 

As I mentioned elsewhere in the thread... I don't have any problems with signing McGovern or letting Edmunds walk.

 

I just think the damage to this roster was done during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.  That is how you keep the cupboard stocked when free agency steals your starters.  And we walked away from those drafts without sufficient talent, and now we are going to pay for it.

 

[mushypeaches]

 

My cat's breath smells like cat food

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

I just think the damage to this roster was done during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.  That is how you keep the cupboard stocked when free agency steals your starters.  And we walked away from those drafts without sufficient talent, and now we are going to pay for it.

 

I think this thought is hard to deny.   The drafts haven't salted the roster with really solid talent.  Instead, it seems the Bills have a lot of players whose potential hasn't been realized.   A lot of guys where the idea of them made sense, but the reality of what they've done doesn't.  Like Rousseau.  He was drafted because he had the potential to be special, but he hasn't been that.  He wasn't drafted to be routinely solid, but he hasn't been that, either.   Spencer Brown is another.   Later rounds, too.  Just not a lot of guys who are working their way into the lineup and just doing a workmanlike job.  

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

People here are saying it may be a rough couple of seasons, and McDermott and Beane could be gone, but I don't see it that way

For better or worse, they will get to finish Chapter 2. another 4 or 5 seasons.   If Chapter 2 includes a Super Bowl win, both will likely be in Buffalo for as long as they want.  Even if they don't win a championship Sean McDermott could very well be our Jeff Fisher. 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

For better or worse, they will get to finish Chapter 2. another 4 or 5 seasons.   If Chapter 2 includes a Super Bowl win, both will likely be in Buffalo for as long as they want.  Even if they don't win a championship Sean McDermott could very well be our Jeff Fisher. 

I agree, all of Chapter 2, and 4 or 5 seasons may be right.  If this chapter doesn't have a happy ending, then they may be unemployed.  Wealthy, but unemployed.  

[Chaos]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The defining element of the last 3 years has not been the Frazier - Edmunds defense. This is an awful, awful take. 

Other than Allen, it is.  The book is about Josh.  

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The Daboll era was Chapter 1 of the Josh Allen years

 

There is merit to your point. However we came into the 2022 season overwhemling favorites to win the Super Bowl. That was the last hurrah of chapter 1.  And that ship has sailed.  The Bills may not even be favored to win the division in 2023. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

 

There is merit to your point. However we came into the 2022 season overwhemling favorites to win the Super Bowl. That was the last hurrah of chapter 1.  And that ship has sailed.  The Bills may not even be favored to win the division in 2023. 

A better analogy is to compare 2018-2022 as the first book in a series. It was an epic read but had a terrible last chapter where the hero’s found themselves defeated by the villains. 
 

So what does the second book hold? 

[Locomark]

The McDermott 4-1-6. 4 DL + Milano + Dime mixture of DBs and hybrid safeties… 

[Paup 1995MVP]

On 3/14/2023 at 10:39 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

I meant that awful regular season game where their Josh Allen was the better Josh Allen. 
 

the defense helped Allen grow into the player he is because he wasn’t forced to carry the team right away. Allen improved every year but he wasn’t the same player in his first 2 years as he is today. 
 

 

Thanks for that memory.  Another horror show in the Gator Bowl.  Wow we were bad that day.  

 

Agree about his first two years.  He has definitely evolved into a top QB.

[BillsPride12]

Good but not good enough.

 

This era Bills team will always be looked at fondly for breaking the drought and then bringing the Bills back to respectability across the Nation.  This also brought along heightened expectations of being perennial favorites to win a Super Bowl by now, which they have fallen short of so far.

 

It won't be a bad legacy but we won't look back on these years like we do with the Kelly/Marv/Bruce Super Bowl years.  But there's still more chapters to be written with this current regime so we will see how it ends up.

[Paup 1995MVP]

20 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

Aaron Rodgers was the back-to-back MVP in 2020-2021.  His "bad" 2022 season was still pretty good by most other QB standards. 

The Jets roster otherwise is stacked with young talent.  They have been held back by poor QB play.  Even a 2022 repeat season from Rodgers probably wins them the division.

 

The only issue with the Dolphins is the health of Tua Tagovailoa.  His first concussion issues derailed the team's hot start.  Missing the playoffs cost them a Wild Card victory (over us).  Guys with head injuries may be more likely to suffer them again.  But not guaranteed.  Dismissing them because they "are the Dolphins" is the same mistake the Patriots made with us a few years back.

 

 

As I mentioned elsewhere in the thread... I don't have any problems with signing McGovern or letting Edmunds walk.

 

I just think the damage to this roster was done during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.  That is how you keep the cupboard stocked when free agency steals your starters.  And we walked away from those drafts without sufficient talent, and now we are going to pay for it.

 

I agree about your assessment of the past 3 drafts.  Certainly not good enough.  I am not a draft expert.  I watch a lot of college football.  But follow the teams more then the individual players.  Except for my beloved Michigan Wolverines.  My older son who plays college football, did not like the Epenesa or Basham picks.  Thought neither was going to do much in the pros.  And he was right so far.  Why do you think Beane is missing the mark so much with our draft picks.  (I certainly did not like drafting Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle to play OT.  Why draft two small college guys to play O line in the NFL?  It just make much sense.)

 

I am not in total agreement about your assessment of the Jets or the Dolphins.  I don't see Aaron Rodgers dominating anymore.  He certainly wasn't great last year.  And I am not sold on any team that has Tua as their starter.  The Bills weakness has been their O line.  It has not been close to good enough.  We get that in order, I see us ruling the division again this year.  

[mjt328]

20 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

I agree about your assessment of the past 3 drafts.  Certainly not good enough.  I am not a draft expert.  I watch a lot of college football.  But follow the teams more then the individual players.  Except for my beloved Michigan Wolverines.  My older son who plays college football, did not like the Epenesa or Basham picks.  Thought neither was going to do much in the pros.  And he was right so far.  Why do you think Beane is missing the mark so much with our draft picks.  (I certainly did not like drafting Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle to play OT.  Why draft two small college guys to play O line in the NFL?  It just make much sense.)

 

As a GM, it's much easier to rebuild a team from scratch (assuming you land the right Quarterback right off the bat) than it is to conquer the final hurdle or to maintain consistent year-to-year success.  Think about it.  At the beginning, you have tons of cap space.  You have really high draft picks.  Most spots on the roster need to be upgraded, so you don't need to focus on specific needs.

 

As the Bills have gotten closer to the Super Bowl goal, it's gotten trickier to find the last piece to the puzzle.  Once the Bills reached the doorstep (the 2020 AFC Championship), Brandon Beane identified the pass rush as that missing piece.  And most of his focus and resources have gone towards upgrading that unit.  Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Von Miller, Daquon Jones, Tim Settle, etc.

 

My opinion is that Beane has started to "reach" in the draft in recent years, because he's desperate to fill-out the biggest needs on his roster.  Unfortunately, the team's biggest need (Edge Rusher) happens to be one of the most difficult positions to find a difference maker.  Beane's scouting preference also seems to lean more towards high-ceiling, developmental players (as opposed to safer choices with less risk).  Combine all of that with constantly having late (mid-20s) draft picks.... and you basically have a recipe for very high bust potential.

 

Overall, I can't necessarily blame Beane for taking this approach.  He's bold and swings for the fences. 

Regardless, when a team has 2-3 straight years of subpar drafting... it's really hard to maintain a championship level roster.

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

18 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

As a GM, it's much easier to rebuild a team from scratch (assuming you land the right Quarterback right off the bat) than it is to conquer the final hurdle or to maintain consistent year-to-year success.  Think about it.  At the beginning, you have tons of cap space.  You have really high draft picks.  Most spots on the roster need to be upgraded, so you don't need to focus on specific needs.

 

As the Bills have gotten closer to the Super Bowl goal, it's gotten trickier to find the last piece to the puzzle.  Once the Bills reached the doorstep (the 2020 AFC Championship), Brandon Beane identified the pass rush as that missing piece.  And most of his focus and resources have gone towards upgrading that unit.  Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, Von Miller, Daquon Jones, Tim Settle, etc.

 

My opinion is that Beane has started to "reach" in the draft in recent years, because he's desperate to fill-out the biggest needs on his roster.  Unfortunately, the team's biggest need (Edge Rusher) happens to be one of the most difficult positions to find a difference maker.  Beane's scouting preference also seems to lean more towards high-ceiling, developmental players (as opposed to safer choices with less risk).  Combine all of that with constantly having late (mid-20s) draft picks.... and you basically have a recipe for very high bust potential.

 

Overall, I can't necessarily blame Beane for taking this approach.  He's bold and swings for the fences. 

Regardless, when a team has 2-3 straight years of subpar drafting... it's really hard to maintain a championship level roster.

 

Thanks for the opinion.  I like your analysis of how Beane is drafting with the high ceiling, developmental players.  I think with Rousseau that is spot on.  Lets hope he keeps getting better.  (Bruce Smith was not great his first few years either)  I don't see the same upside with Epenesa and Basham.  And Spencer Brown looks lousy.  (I personally do not like O lineman who are that tall.  Difficult to get any leverage going against guys 4-5 inches or more shorter)  Maybe Tommy Doyle when healthy will end up being a big surprise.  

[Utah John]

I suspect the reason Frazier left (yeah, he's coming back next year, sure, hahaha) is that he knew Edmunds was leaving.  Frazier put together a very good regular season D, and Edmunds was a big part of it.  Replacing Edmunds with a normal-sized, normal-speed LB is probably not happening, and Frazier didn't want to have to re-do his entire D with someone less athletic.  

[C.Biscuit97]

51 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thanks for the opinion.  I like your analysis of how Beane is drafting with the high ceiling, developmental players.  I think with Rousseau that is spot on.  Lets hope he keeps getting better.  (Bruce Smith was not great his first few years either)  I don't see the same upside with Epenesa and Basham.  And Spencer Brown looks lousy.  (I personally do not like O lineman who are that tall.  Difficult to get any leverage going against guys 4-5 inches or more shorter)  Maybe Tommy Doyle when healthy will end up being a big surprise.  

Good post. There was no upside with AJ. He was maxed out in college. He was supposed to be a good solid all around DE who won’t never be a double digit sack guy.  I agree on GR and we have seen flashes. 
 

but as much as fans want to blame Frazier and Edmunds (again, back to back #1 defenses), I think the d line and drafting deserves a lot of blame. They got destroyed by cincy’s back o line. 

[T master]

On 3/13/2023 at 8:36 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

Thank god that chapter is closed. It was awful having the number 1 defense back to back. 
 

this next chapter is going to be “Josh, you have a ton of money so need to carry the team”

 

And the difference with that would be ????