very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[dave mcbride]

14 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

Anyone who says he is bad at drafting has to at least mention that he drafted Josh Allen, who will arguably be the best player in franchise history when it’s all said and done. And he wasn’t served up to the Bills on a platter. Beane had to be really creative to get in position to take him. Everything else is secondary. 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Of course the cap matters.  These aren't fake numbers, the cap maneuvering is just a way to kick the can down the road, but at the end at some point there is a reckoning.

 

Also, this whole Lamar Jackson debate with some analysts who say "Just pay the man".   "Do it at whatever cost", these sort of proclamations and analysis is lazy.

Yes, I agree that you should do everything within reason to keep him or any other young franchise QB but it's not at "any cost".   Fully guaranteeing his contract means there is very little cap maneuvering - you have less flexibility to help the team out in the interim, not to mention Lamar has been very injury prone the past couple seasons and lets face it, Lamar without his running ability is a middling QB.  

 

Where the Ravens went wrong was not signing Lamar up to a long-term deal after his third year, now they are paying the price of the Deshaun Watson fully guaranteed debacle.  My guess is that after the Hurts, Burrow and Herbert contracts which I would imagine will go back to not fully guaranteed contracts will bring the QB market back to where it was, probably with a little more guaranteed money pre Watson.

 

I bring up Lamar because I was listening to Brandt yesterday on NFL Sirius and he was expressing frustration with the Ravens for not getting the deal done.

If you read the piece, you’ll see that the Browns have so much rollover in cap space that the Watson contract isn’t particularly onerous for them.

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

The Bills have have put up 5 above-average defensive performances in the postseason under McDermott/Frazier and 4 bad ones. Let’s not exaggerate.

[zow2]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

 

There's a case to be made that having the true "franchise QB", like the Bills have...make it so you can get away with cutting corners in other areas.  Kansas City just proved it.  Get the man an O-line, hit on some skill player draft picks and F/A's.  Have a good scheme on D where guys can fit in and slow down the opponent.  As you stated, in the playoffs against solid offense, you can't stop them...you can only slow them and try to win the game by scoring which Allen can do with the best of them.

[DJB]

Is Andrew Brandt the guy with the big ears?

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Not claiming he hasn't done good things. I absolutely give credit to Beane and McD for building a winning franchise. 

 

However, they have woefully fallen short in progressing the team further. That's my major issue, complaint, and concern. 

 

The last two years the Bills were primed to make at least a Super Bowl appearance and arguably win it all. The organization and team failed miserably. Coaches were clearly out coached and out planned and out maneuvered. Players failed to step up and execute. Allen had very little support. 

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

I still lean on giving the division edge to the Bills purely because of Allen. He's just that dynamic and good. Likely make the playoffs if he stays healthy. 

 

Depends on how you measure success. As for me, 3-5 years ago. It was such a pleasure to see them winning in the regular season. Win the division. Great to see them advance to the playoffs. 

 

However, at some point the goalposts have moved or should have moved. The last two years weren't just about making the playoffs. It was about going to the Super Bowl and  winning it all.  

 

Fast forward to the state of the team now. It has holes or weaknesses throughout the roster in various areas. We know what they are. No way in heck can they all be adequately be addressed. Let's not even get into the injuries the team will suffer next year. They will have injuries. 

 

Hope that helps you see things in a different light. 

I get your point and frustration, but the idea the organization failed miserably? I see that as a tad extreme.   There are 32 nfl franchises and we’re seen as a top 3-5 organization by “professional “ pundits. We’re on the right track. We’ll be one of the favorites next season by those pundits. As we should. 

[HappyDays]

Related, Cover 1 released their annual salary cap podcast yesterday:

 

 

It's nearly 2 hours long but a great listen. Just by restructuring Allen's and Miller's contracts, which is almost certain to happen, we will free up enough salary to be below the cap. And then there's a bunch of other moves we can make to free up plenty of other space to make some moves this offseason.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Anyone who says he is bad at drafting has to at least mention that he drafted Josh Allen, who will arguably be the best player in franchise history when it’s all said and done. And he wasn’t served up to the Bills on a platter. Beane had to be really creative to get in position to take him. Everything else is secondary. 

If you read the piece, you’ll see that the Browns have so much rollover in cap space that the Watson contract isn’t particularly onerous for them.

No doubt the Allen pick was a grand slam. It was a high risk high reward pick. It arguably transformed the Bills franchise. 

 

Beane deserves credit and praise and then some more. He found the coveted franchise QB. A huge game changing selection. 

 

However, what has Beane done since the Allen pick? He doesn't simply get a pass because he found the Bills QB. 

 

I agree that Beane's misses have hurt the team. The failure to support and protect Allen has led to disappointing losses. The failure to change coaches and schemes has led to early playoff losses. That's on Beane. 

 

In short, the team with its franchise QB has flatly disappointed to advance in the playoffs. Something has I change and I don't see much change yet. 

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills have have put up 5 above-average defensive performances in the postseason under McDermott/Frazier and 4 bad ones. Let’s not exaggerate.

I don't think I'm exaggerating. I have little to no confidence that a Fraizer/McD defense can get it done in the playoffs. Not sure how you can? 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I get your point and frustration, but the idea the organization failed miserably? I see that as a tad extreme.   There are 32 nfl franchises and we’re seen as a top 3-5 organization by “professional “ pundits. We’re on the right track. We’ll be one of the favorites next season by those pundits. As we should. 

That's fair.

 

I feel like the Bills organization is settling on being a good to very good team. Seems like they want to make minor changes and run it back. 

 

Coaching and schemes need to change. The Bills haven't learned from the past. Recently, we have seen some frustration by Allen and Diggs. I believe they want changes that can led to big playoff wins and advancement. What are those changes? You think McD, Fraizer, or Dorsey are going to change enough to make a difference? 

 

Analyze the team's roster. It has some holes that truly prevent the Bills from beating top tier teams in the playoffs. We've seen that the last few years. What makes you think the Bills can close the gap and improve enough? 

 

The Bills organization has failed to adequately build up both sides of the line. We all know that the game is usually won in the trenches. That just so happens to be a weakness of the Bills. A weakness that has existed for years. Correct? 

 

In short, I see a descending Bills team not an ascending team. The Jets, Dolphins, Cinci, KC and the Jags are on the right track. The arrow is clearly going up. Not sure you can say that about the Bills. We fans have hope and Allen. Frankly that's fallen short and likely to continue. 

[78thealltimegreat]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I dont think its that dire, but I do think this is a critical offseason.  We still have a very good roster, but I am more concerned with 2 coordinators.  They are not being improved upon, and I just lack confidence in both of them.  Dorsey at least has potential to improve, Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

So does Buffalo with restructures Josh alone clears 21 million in cap space. There is no such thing as cap jail see the move the saints made with their OT yesterday. 
If Buffalo wants to a sign a player they can it won’t be Von Miller but they can sign a guy or two.
 

[Devilmann]

22 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Let me manage the money, I guarantee big savings....

 

 Players can buy their own uniforms and

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

.

 

 

 

Jeez just roll out the water hose already and as a bonus bring the sprinkler connection out so if players get hot they can play in the water. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

So does Buffalo with restructures Josh alone clears 21 million in cap space. There is no such thing as cap jail see the move the saints made with their OT yesterday. 
If Buffalo wants to a sign a player they can it won’t be Von Miller but they can sign a guy or two.
 

 

Just because Buffalo is not in a severe cap situation to be labeled "cap jail" (thanks to intelligent moves by Beane during his tenure here) does not mean "cap jail" does not exist.  Plenty of teams have experienced it and suffered consequences as a result over the years.  

 

 

[JoPoy88]

On 2/22/2023 at 1:23 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

One thing I can see happening in the next CBA is teams similar to what the NBA has getting the Larry Bird exemption deal where they can place say 3 or 4 players as cornerstone franchise pieces and those players they can pay more then anyone else and it won’t have difference in the teams cap structure or something like it as salaries keep getting out of hand for QBs 

Will never happen. But it’s fun to play make believe!

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Just because Buffalo is not in a severe cap situation to be labeled "cap jail" (thanks to intelligent moves by Beane during his tenure here) does not mean "cap jail" does not exist.  Plenty of teams have experienced it and suffered consequences as a result over the years.  

 

 

The only untouchable player on this roster wears number 17. Everyone can be cut or restructured.
There is never cap jail even when the Bills lose players to free agency they simply get comp picks in the draft. The Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys have been doing it for years and are just as close to a Super Bowl as the Bills. 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 1:39 AM, dave mcbride said:

very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

 

 

Well, yeah, I guess you can say that it's "on 'cap jail' nonsense." But he's not saying that cap jail is nonsense if you pay a QB a boatload of money. He's NOT saying that.

 

Here's what he's saying specifically:  "[The myth] is this: NFL teams paying market contracts for top quarterbacks either cannot, or have a very hard time trying to build a Super Bowl–contending team. My unequivocal answer to this is: wrong!"

 

So, he's not saying there's no such thing as getting in cap jail from from paying a huge QB contract. Many here seem to want to pretend that's what's being said. The headline for this thread seems to say that, and that's NOT what Brandt is saying.

 

He's just saying that it's very possible to field a championship-competitive team while paying a huge QB contract. That should already be obvious, what with most Super Bowl-winning teams recently being among the group that has given a big QB contract to a top ten QB.

 

However you can also find teams that paid top ten QBs big contracts and ended up being screwed by resulting harmful cap consequences. The Rams, most recently.

 

In the article, Brandt says, "Paying a top quarterback (cash) is not the issue; dealing with the leftover (cap) accounting in the future is much more the problem."

 

Well, yeah. There is a problem. That problem can to some extent be pushed on down the road, but not forever.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 11:59 AM, newcam2012 said:

This is 100% on point. 

 

Go back to the 13 second disaster. We fans never got a full explanation of what happened. Arguably, one of the worst beats in team history and it got swept under the rug.

 

The media treated the coaching staff with kid gloves. McD dodged every question. Fraizer was left off scott free. 

 

Most fans have moved on and accept the blunder as a one off. Using examples of other coaches who blew it. Total BS. 

 

Now, fast forward one year later and Cinci buries the Bills in their own building. 

 

Again, no accountability. Excuses of injuries, crazy season, Damar, etc...BS again! The team wasn't ready to play. The coaches had terrible game plans. Learned nothing from their rehearsal in Cinci weeks prior. 

 

Let's not kid ourselves either. Coach McD took over during that 13 second span. There's no way he didn't. 

 

This team will not advance far in the playoffs with McD, Fraizer, and Dorsey leading the way. 

 

The time is now for change! Good guy McD has to go. Fraizer just plan sucks when it counts. Horrific decision to keep him on. Dorsey is a young baby learning and hurting the Bills chances in win it all mode. 

Beane sold us manure in his press conference. 

 

Allen and Diggs can feel it slipping away. Why can't the fans? 

 

 

 

This is utter nonsense.

 

We certainly got a full explanation of what happened. We didn't get it from the coaching staff, but we got it from Levi Wallace.

 

And anyone who tells you that every coaching staff (or corporate leadership team) always give full explanations of major problems is as full of crap as a sewage barge on the way out.

 

There's plenty of accountability here. The fans just aren't privy to it in this (and many many many cases on other teams and companies) particular instance.

 

We aren't kidding ourselves about Coach McD taking over during 13 seconds. You are.

 

We don't know. Again, pretending you do know only means your stance again resembles the sewage barge.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 3:18 PM, newcam2012 said:

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

 

And yet more absolute utter dopiness and wrongness from you.

 

Vegas has the Bills with the second-best odds to win next year. Well above the Bengals. None of the Miami, Jets, LA and the Jags that you claim are "right there maybe better" are even close. The highest is the Jets at +2500.

 

There is a reason to think that the Bills are more likely descending than ascending, that reason being that you're a miserable sad whiner, about to break out into "Waaaaaaaah. Waaaaaaaaah."

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Thurman#1

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

And yet more absolute utter dopiness and wrongness from you.

 

Vegas has the Bills with the second-best odds to win next year. Well above the Bengals. None of the Miami, Jets, LA and the Jags that you claim are "right there maybe better" are even close. The highest is the Jets at +2500.

 

There is a reason to think that the Bills are more likely descending than ascending, that reason being that you're a miserable sad whiner, about to break out into "Waaaaaaaah. Waaaaaaaaah."

 

 

 

 

 

 

How did Vegas do on the Bills winning the Super Bowl last year? 

 

Take your homer glasses off and look at reality. 

 

No way this coaching staff leads the team to a Super Bowl. They continue to fall short yet you continue to believe the unlikely. 

 

The team has several holes that have been exposed especially in the playoffs. The last three years are plenty of proof that this coaching staff doesn't have what it takes.

 

Maybe rewatch the Miami and Cinci playoff games. 

 

Take a look at the infamous 13 seconds. 

 

Why in the world world you have a mortal of confidence they can get it down. 

 

Rule of thumb is the games won on the trenches. You agree? Take a serious look at the Bills line. The Oline has been a major issue for years. 

 

Fact is its clear the Dolphins and the Jets have closed the gap. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. Is that you?

 

 

 

 

[newcam2012]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

This is utter nonsense.

 

We certainly got a full explanation of what happened. We didn't get it from the coaching staff, but we got it from Levi Wallace.

 

And anyone who tells you that every coaching staff (or corporate leadership team) always give full explanations of major problems is as full of crap as a sewage barge on the way out.

 

There's plenty of accountability here. The fans just aren't privy to it in this (and many many many cases on other teams and companies) particular instance.

 

We aren't kidding ourselves about Coach McD taking over during 13 seconds. You are.

 

We don't know. Again, pretending you do know only means your stance again resembles the sewage barge.

 

 

It's about probability and likelihood. No way a competent head coach doesn't take charge there. Got your head out of your butt! It's like saying OJ didn't do it. 

 

Stop embarrassing yourself with outlandish claims. 

 

A CEO of a company would have been fired immediately after such a blunder. Shareholders would have demanded a vote to terminate. Stop telling yourself fibs...

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

It's about probability and likelihood. No way a competent head coach doesn't take charge there. Got your head out of your butt! It's like saying OJ didn't do it. 

 

Stop embarrassing yourself with outlandish claims. 

 

A CEO of a company would have been fired immediately after such a blunder. Shareholders would have demanded a vote to terminate. Stop telling yourself fibs...

 

 

How do you so consistently miss the point?

 

Yeah, a competent head coach takes charge there. 

 

McDermott did.

 

The fact that he did it in a way that you don't happen to like is far beside the point.

 

And the idea that a CEO would have been fired after a season like the 2021 Bills had is simply butt-stupid.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 12:29 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Maybe.  LOL  

 

What we do know is that rest of the team by itself can't play on two without Allen.  

 

 

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

 

47 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

How did Vegas do on the Bills winning the Super Bowl last year? 

 

Take your homer glasses off and look at reality. 

 

No way this coaching staff leads the team to a Super Bowl. They continue to fall short yet you continue to believe the unlikely. 

 

The team has several holes that have been exposed especially in the playoffs. The last three years are plenty of proof that this coaching staff doesn't have what it takes.

 

Maybe rewatch the Miami and Cinci playoff games. 

 

Take a look at the infamous 13 seconds. 

 

Why in the world world you have a mortal of confidence they can get it down. 

 

Rule of thumb is the games won on the trenches. You agree? Take a serious look at the Bills line. The Oline has been a major issue for years. 

 

Fact is its clear the Dolphins and the Jets have closed the gap. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. Is that you?

 

 

 

 

 

 

My God, you're some kind of savant on missing the point. 

 

Vegas doesn't pretend to tell the future. Grading them on whether they hit in hindsight is completely misunderstanding what they do.

 

They're about making strong guesses about the future and ranking likelihoods. Most particularly in predicting how the masses of people will bet. They're sensational at it. 

 

And again, anyone who thinks that a team doesn't have a chance to go all the way just because they had problems in the playoffs for a year or two simply doesn't understand how the world works. Some teams win their first time. Others take some time. Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Ravens, and on and on and on.

 

You said "Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills." That Vegas line tells you that you're absolutely wrong on that. Fans are betting on the Bills over everyone but the Chiefs next year. You're far more of a miserabilist than the huge majority of fans.

 

Fans has confidence they get it done. The reason simply being that that's the likelihood, that they have a good chance to get it done. Far higher than your befuddled suggestions of the Jets and the others.

 

As for your last sentence there, what you're claiming is a fact is - in fact - an opinion. And not an especially bright one.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Thurman#1

[newcam2012]

51 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

 

 

 

My God, you're some kind of savant on missing the point. 

 

Vegas doesn't pretend to tell the future. Grading them on whether they hit in hindsight is completely misunderstanding what they do.

 

They're about making strong guesses about the future and ranking likelihoods. Most particularly in predicting how the masses of people will bet. They're sensational at it. 

 

And again, anyone who thinks that a team doesn't have a chance to go all the way just because they had problems in the playoffs for a year or two simply doesn't understand how the world works. Some teams win their first time. Others take some time. Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Ravens, and on and on and on.

 

You said "Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills." That Vegas line tells you that you're absolutely wrong on that. Fans are betting on the Bills over everyone but the Chiefs next year. You're far more of a miserabilist than the huge majority of fans.

 

Fans has confidence they get it done. The reason simply being that that's the likelihood, that they have a good chance to get it done. Far higher than your befuddled suggestions of the Jets and the others.

 

As for your last sentence there, what you're claiming is a fact is - in fact - an opinion. And not an especially bright one.

 

At this point, I'm just spinning my wheels. 

 

You won't convince me that the Bills will win a Super Bowl anytime soon. Neither will the Vegas line. 

 

Hopefully, significant changes are made. That has to start with coaching, schemes, play calling, player developement, etc.. Then I can get aboard and think differently. Until then, I will remain skeptical for good reason. 

 

I'll end with a Edmund Burke quote "those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it." 

 

 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

Much more so us tho.

 

[hondo in seattle]

Brandt, formerly VP of the Packers, knows far more about football than I ever will.  

That said, there's a giant hole in his logic.  He says that teams with big-salaried QBs are not challenged to build contending teams.   He goes on to explain how rookies on rookie-contracts (more than half the roster) only take up about $30 million of cap space and any money a team doesn't spend in one year is rolled over to the next, and so on.  With so much money to spend on a comparative few number of vets, there's plenty of money to build a roster. 

 

Here's the problem.    A team with a QB on a rookie contract might be spending about $1 million on their starting QB.  The Packers, for instance, are spending over $50 million.  Teams helmed by youngsters have roughly $40-50 million more to spend on free agents than teams with veteran star QBs.  That buys you a lot of talent.    It's easy to build up a roster when you have a rookie-contract QB.  It's much harder if you don't.  

[Alphadawg7]

19 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The only untouchable player on this roster wears number 17. Everyone can be cut or restructured.
There is never cap jail even when the Bills lose players to free agency they simply get comp picks in the draft. The Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys have been doing it for years and are just as close to a Super Bowl as the Bills. 

 

Again, you are missing the point.  Just because Buffalo, and now Cowboys and Ravens as you put it have done good jobs at avoiding cap jail does not in any way mean cap jail doesn't exist for teams who do not properly manage it.  

 

That is like someone saying that just they haven't fallen off a bicycle and gotten hurt that no one is it risk of falling off a bike and getting hurt.  The logic of it not yet happening to someone specific therefore somehow means it doesn't happen at all is not correct.  

 

No one is arguing that cap maneuvers are not possible to free up more space.  But to say that no team is at risk of creating cap problems down the road if they mishandle how they do those, player contracts, roster decisions, etc is incorrect.  

[78thealltimegreat]

48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, you are missing the point.  Just because Buffalo, and now Cowboys and Ravens as you put it have done good jobs at avoiding cap jail does not in any way mean cap jail doesn't exist for teams who do not properly manage it.  

 

That is like someone saying that just they haven't fallen off a bicycle and gotten hurt that no one is it risk of falling off a bike and getting hurt.  The logic of it not yet happening to someone specific therefore somehow means it doesn't happen at all is not correct.  

 

No one is arguing that cap maneuvers are not possible to free up more space.  But to say that no team is at risk of creating cap problems down the road if they mishandle how they do those, player contracts, roster decisions, etc is incorrect.  

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:24 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

Lmao, I mean it’s happened many times.  But ok lmao

[Zerovoltz]

Here is the thing about big QB contracts.

 

If you are paying a QB one of these very large deals, like the Bills are with Allen, the Chiefs with Mahomes....then the QB MUST be of the caliber that he can play at a high and efficient level with lesser talent, or less star power around, and more MEH/JAG types/Rookies around.

 

Brandt is emboldened here by the idea Matt Stafford just won a title on a team the truly said "F them picks" and got alot of vet talent, kicked alot of that money down the road for CAP ACCOUNTING purposes, and they won.  Mahomes, on a large cap hit this past season, and a bunch of rookies, and hodge podge WR corps...won.

 

There are only a very small number of QB's who can take a high pct of the cap at a given time or over a period of time, and take whatever roster you cobble together.  

 

Kirk Cousins is a decent QB, but he's paid too much / his pay has to account for too much space on their cap to put an adequate enough roster around him to win a super bowl.  (rather, it's improbably they will win one with him, not impossible)  Dak Prescott...same problem.  Kyler Murray.  Same problem.  

 

Daniel Jones, Russel Wilson (at this point) Stafford, are QB's all about looking at some big contracts where they might squeeze in a year or maybe 2 of a low cap hit and try and put alot around those guys for a year or maybe 2, and then that's it....

 

Burrow, and Lamar also about to get huge paydays.  When the CAP hits come around, will they be able to put enough together?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

 

I don't know where the line is...what the pct is, and what the talent level is, where you CAN or you CAN NOT pay X and win with only X amount of talent, but I strongly suspect that line only has few guys above the high pay/high talent threshold and a whole lot under it.

 

Guys above this line:

 

Mahomes

Allen

MAYBE Burrow.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:24 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

Kendricks was a very mediocre player this year for a horrible defense. He is 31 and slowing down. He is definitely not the same player as the all pro from 2019. QBs had a rating against him of 82 in 2019 and 59 in 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, QBs have had a passer rating of over 100 against him. And if one pays any attention to PFF, he was rated 61.1 this year, which is below average. You have to factor that into your assessment. It's less about going into cap jail and more about paying outsized money for past production that ain't gonna return. 

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Kendricks was a very mediocre player this year for a horrible defense. He is 31 and slowing down. He is definitely not the same player as the all pro from 2019. QBs had a rating against him of 82 in 2019 and 59 in 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, QBs have had a passer rating of over 100 against him. And if one pays any attention to PFF, he was rated 61.1 this year, which is below average. You have to factor that into your assessment. It's less about going into cap jail and more about paying outsized money for past production that ain't gonna return. 

 

For the record, I agree with you that at 31 things like his production and contract size weigh in on these decisions.  But, you realize the Vikings were dead last in the NFL in pass defense the past 2 years thought right?  Showing some pass defense stats doesn't tell the whole picture on Kendricks ability, he still led the team in tackles and was still one of their better players on Defense.  Jerry Hughes put up 2 sacks for us last year and then went on to put up 9 sacks on a new defense this year despite everyone saying he was washed because the Bills didn't get many sacks.  Kendricks pass defense stats are going to look worse while playing on a team whose is the worst in the NFL at defending the pass, doesn't mean Kendricks is the reason.  

 

Kendricks will have suitors, he is only 31 and he is still a good player even if he isn't at the level he was in his 20's.  The only reason Kendricks is not a Viking today is because his cap savings by cutting him was nearly $10M, far more than they could save restructuring, at a time the team is way over the cap.  

 

Vikings are staring down the real possibility of moving on from Dalvin Cook too, who is so far refusing a pay cut. 

 

The point is, they don't really have a choice in these matters do to the cap situation.  On a defense that had major issues already, they had to cut one of their better players on the defense for cap reasons and create a new hole to fill.  That was more a cap decision than a flat out ability decision.  

 

And again, this isn't the end all, be all example of cap issues. There are countless examples throughout the NFL and its history where teams have had plenty of cap issues.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

You picked a bad time to try to own me as the saints just signed Carr to a 4 year deal 

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You picked a bad time to try to own me as the saints just signed Carr to a 4 year deal 

Why don’t you read my post in the Saints thread.  Lmao, saints are probably one of the worst examples you could cite.  You know a 7 win team $30m over the cap. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[78thealltimegreat]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Why don’t you read my post in the Saints thread.  Lmao, saints are probably one of the worst examples you could cite.

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

 

Haha, you said it right there...wait until you see the money the Saints came up with.  Where do you think that money is coming from?  They are creating more future cap issues, cutting starting players, and creating dead cap hits through restructures that will impact their ability to keep players in the coming seasons too.  And they were already doing that just to get under the cap as they entered the offseason as a 7 win team that was $30M over the cap.   And for what?  To sign a middle of the pack QB who didn't do much in Las Vegas with better weapons in guys like Davante Adams and NFL leading rusher Jacobs?  He has a young piece in Olave, but he is no Adams, and Kamara is on the decline and not close to the player Jacobs is today.  

 

Bahaha, but you think this proves the cap doesn't matter.  The Saints are one of the worst examples in the NFL on how to handle the cap and also for not getting results despite their cap issues.  Unless you think being cap strapped every year to just win enough games to not get a good draft pick and yet not be good enough to contend for a SB.  

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

 

Any team can restructure and get money every single year.  There is no debate about that.

 

Do you know which team with a high $ QB that did not restructure one penny last year?  KC Chiefs.  Mahomes played on his full cap hit.

They let a high $ WR go (because they didn't want to pay big bucks for a WR).

 

Some fans should look at KC and what the Pats* did concerning the handling of the cap instead of the Saints who won 1 Superbowl back when

smartphones just came out and never returned to the Superbowl.  KC has a lot of big decisions this offseason, that's who I'm going to be 

watching.  For any fans curious look at their cap situation AND their FA list I will post them below.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kansas-city-chiefs/

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Haha, you said it right there...wait until you see the money the Saints came up with.  Where do you think that money is coming from?  They are creating more future cap issues, cutting starting players, and creating dead cap hits through restructures that will impact their ability to keep players in the coming seasons too.  And they were already doing that just to get under the cap as they entered the offseason as a 7 win team that was $30M over the cap.   And for what?  To sign a middle of the pack QB who didn't do much in Las Vegas with better weapons in guys like Davante Adams and NFL leading rusher Jacobs?  He has a young piece in Olave, but he is no Adams, and Kamara is on the decline and not close to the player Jacobs is today.  

 

Bahaha, but you think this proves the cap doesn't matter.  The Saints are one of the worst examples in the NFL on how to handle the cap and also for not getting results despite their cap issues.  Unless you think being cap strapped every year to just win enough games to not get a good draft pick and yet not be good enough to contend for a SB.  

4 years 150 million for a team that is over by 25 million kinda puts a dent in your cap jail argument doesn’t it? 

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Any team can restructure and get money every single year.  There is no debate about that.

 

Do you know which team with a high $ QB that did not restructure one penny last year?  KC Chiefs.  Mahomes played on his full cap hit.

They let a high $ WR go (because they didn't want to pay big bucks for a WR).

 

Some fans should look at KC and what the Pats* did concerning the handling of the cap instead of the Saints who won 1 Superbowl back when

smartphones just came out and never returned to the Superbowl.  KC has a lot of big decisions this offseason, that's who I'm going to be 

watching.  For any fans curious look at their cap situation AND their FA list I will post them below.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kansas-city-chiefs/

 

 

That’s what I’m saying and the ones that let free agents walk can play the comp pick game and recoup in the draft now that I understand how the comp pick game is played 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

4 years 150 million for a team that is over by 25 million kinda puts a dent in your cap jail argument doesn’t it? 

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

[78thealltimegreat]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

Of course that’s why he signed with the checks notes currently 25 million over the cap saints 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

So much of the cap jail concept relates to the QB. Teams that find themselves in a bad spot are typically teams with mid-tier QBs earning massive salaries who are also completely dependent on elite talent around them to have any success (the Kirk Cousinses, Derek Carrs, and Jimmy Gs of the world). NO always got away with their cap situation in the past because they had a QB who could make any receiver look terrific and who raised the play of everyone around him. Bad QB contracts are the real problem. I look at teams like Baltimore, Cleveland, the Giants, and Minnesota and see problems given the money involved with the QB position. And if I'm Miami I don't know what to do with Tua. I also don't know what Baltimore will do. With regard to Minnesota, I say this even though the Vikings went 13-4. That was the most bogus 13-win season since the Bears in 2003, who also had a bunch of miracle victories. When a Dalvin Cook leaves on a team with Tom Brady on it, it simply doesn't matter much because the team would always be fine on offense no matter who the back was. A mediocre talent like Cousins needs Dalvin Cook, however. Josh Allen is the opposite of Kirk Cousins, so I generally feel very good about the Bills cap situation in future years. Yeah, guys will leave but the core will remain and the Bills should be in good shape. Same with KC.

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

 

That’s what I’m saying and the ones that let free agents walk can play the comp pick game and recoup in the draft now that I understand how the comp pick game is played 

 

I don't know if you looked at the KC Spotrac sites I gave.  Just heard on NFLN that the Chiefs are probably letting Orlando Brown Jr walk.

They also released Frank Clark (no comp there).

Money is a factor.