AFC Representative Seed By The Numbers Last Decade (1 Seed info here also)

[corta765]

As the season winds to an exciting end and the battle for the 1 seed is real it really is down to KC-BUF-CIN. I took a dive into how the last decade the AFC rep was decided by seed and where it shakes out since the 2012-13 playoff:

 

-1 seed has represented the AFC six of the ten years in the SB

-1 seed has hosted the AFC title game seven of the last ten years with the only loss being the KC-NE OT game in 2018

-the three AFC 1 seeds that failed to make the AFC title where Denver 2012 (Flacco miracle TD late), Ravens 2019 implosion at home vs TEN, and the Titans last year who truthfully probably should've made the AFC title game had Tannehill not thrown so many INTs

-the four AFC representatives that were not 1 seeds were the Ravens seeded 4th, Pats seed 2nd 2018, Chiefs seeded 2nd 2019, and Bengals seeded 4th also in 2021 (maybe the AFC north has an in on the 4th seed SB runs)

-If you care about the NFC eight of the last 10 years the 1 seed has hosted their title game with the only two years it didn't happen being Dallas 2016 (lol) and actually last year as Green Bay puked on themselves

-The 1 seed has went to the SB five of the last ten years

 

Without saying too much more statistically over the last decade if your the 1 seed it is a 70-80% chance you will be in the conference title game and better the 50% chance of making the SB. We need the Bills to win out lol

[Starr Almighty]

So you're saying we want to win the 1 seed?

[Charles Romes]

It’s as important as 10+ designed Allen runs in the first half v the Bengals. 

[DJB]

Explain it to me like I’m 5 how the Patriots get a comp pick out of this 😠

Edited December 20, 2022 by DJB

[corta765]

35 minutes ago, DJB said:

Explain it to me like I’m 5 how the Patriots get a comp pick out of this 😠

 

Comp picks have nothing to do with playoffs. If you lose __ number of players you drafted/signed as entering the league and do not sign as many free agents back you get comp picks.

 

like your 5:

If you give more of your toys away then you get at a toy trade show, at christmas you get more toys then others.

[YattaOkasan]

Great analysis.  Wonder how it will change with 1 seed being the only team that gets a bye now.  That so huge to me.  Might affect both the 2 seeds that made the Super bowl.  This year I think its even more important because then KC will play Cinci (sorta how Cinci didnt have to play both us and KC).  The only other matchup im sorta rooting for in the first round (again dependent on us getting the 1st seed) is chargers versus KC.  LA has been really close both games this year and are starting to get healthy (though they would still probably blow it).

Edited December 20, 2022 by YattaOkasan

[H2o]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Comp picks have nothing to do with playoffs. If you lose __ number of players you drafted/signed as entering the league and do not sign as many free agents back you get comp picks.

 

like your 5:

If you give more of your toys away then you get at a toy trade show, at christmas you get more toys then others.

Pretty sure there was heavy sarcasm on DJB's end my friend. 

[Malazan]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Comp picks have nothing to do with playoffs. If you lose __ number of players you drafted/signed as entering the league and do not sign as many free agents back you get comp picks.

 

like your 5:

If you give more of your toys away then you get at a toy trade show, at Christmas you get more toys then others.

 

Once again the zeal to correct someone on the internet overrides common sense. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Malazan

[DJB]

2 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Comp picks have nothing to do with playoffs. If you lose __ number of players you drafted/signed as entering the league and do not sign as many free agents back you get comp picks.

 

like your 5:

If you give more of your toys away then you get at a toy trade show, at christmas you get more toys then others.

[boyst]

topic drift.... who has bigger home field advantage on a random day in january for a playoff game: buffalo or miami?  i'd argue miami.  in buffalo it's not always bone chilling cold or snowing.

 

regardless the number 1 seed this year has a lot of value because we are still a paper tiger, and a pretender. we haven't had the success of the chiefs or bengals. the slight advantage of playing either at home (or anyone else) is yuge.

[corta765]

17 minutes ago, H2o said:

Pretty sure there was heavy sarcasm on DJB's end my friend. 

 

I figured so but had to have fun in the kids 5 year old response lol in fairness I agree its BS screw the Pats

[Ta111]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

topic drift.... who has bigger home field advantage on a random day in january for a playoff game: buffalo or miami?  i'd argue miami.  in buffalo it's not always bone chilling cold or snowing.

 

regardless the number 1 seed this year has a lot of value because we are still a paper tiger, and a pretender. we haven't had the success of the chiefs or bengals. the slight advantage of playing either at home (or anyone else) is yuge.

And it’s not 100 degrees in Miami in January. 

[corta765]

Just now, boyst said:

topic drift.... who has bigger home field advantage on a random day in january for a playoff game: buffalo or miami?  i'd argue miami.  in buffalo it's not always bone chilling cold or snowing.

 

regardless the number 1 seed this year has a lot of value because we are still a paper tiger, and a pretender. we haven't had the success of the chiefs or bengals. the slight advantage of playing either at home (or anyone else) is yuge.

 

I think the margin of error between KC-BUF-CIN is paper thin where home field matters big time. Had the Bills still had Von I think we were a little ahead of those two, but without him it narrows things were the differences become interchangeable and not traveling on the road becomes an advantage in itself.

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I think the margin of error between KC-BUF-CIN is paper thin where home field matters big time. Had the Bills still had Von I think we were a little ahead of those two, but without him it narrows things were the differences become interchangeable and not traveling on the road becomes an advantage in itself.

 

14 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I think the margin of error between KC-BUF-CIN is paper thin where home field matters big time. Had the Bills still had Von I think we were a little ahead of those two, but without him it narrows things were the differences become interchangeable and not traveling on the road becomes an advantage in itself.

i don't think miller gives as much as people think. i am not 100% sold on the miller edge. specifically because he has aged.  he was a force every snap when he was in his prime. he's just beyond that and seems to have regressed. his ability to turn it on and get after it doesn't seem the same to the point he almost takes plays off and gets lost in the wash.

[Aussie Joe]

How long have they been doing the No 1 seed only gets a bye week 1 and what are the results of that? 

 

Think it would be more interesting to look at the current format 
 

 

[corta765]

9 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

How long have they been doing the No 1 seed only gets a bye week 1 and what are the results of that? 

 

Think it would be more interesting to look at the current format 
 

 

 

NFL playoffs expanded in 2020 to 7 teams aside and only one bye. I think long term this will limit playoff droughts more as that extra spot will get teams in that are fringe for the first time in a bit that usually would've missed.

 

2020 KC/GB 1 seeds -> both hosted AFC/NFC title games

2021 TEN/GB 1 seeds -> both lost last minute divisional round games. KC 2 seed and LAR 4 seed hosted title games.

Edited December 20, 2022 by corta765

[Punching Bag]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

Without saying too much more statistically over the last decade if your the 1 seed it is a 70-80% chance you will be in the conference title game and better the 50% chance of making the SB. We need the Bills to win out lol

 

Isn't better for Bills to lose 1 seed so Josh Allen can play in a d0me?

 

So it is best that they following teams are in playoffs since only AFC teams with d0mes:

• Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas Raiders
• Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis Colts
• SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles Chargers

 

Of course it makes it impossible for Bills to win it out since there are not enough d0mes for all playoff games.

 

[corta765]

1 minute ago, Limeaid said:

 

Isn't better for Bills to lose 1 seed so Josh Allen can play in a d0me?

 

So it is best that they following teams are in playoffs since only AFC teams with d0mes:

• Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas Raiders
• Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis Colts
• SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles Chargers

 

Of course it makes it impossible for Bills to win it out since there are not enough d0mes for all playoff games.

 

 

I will forever take the statistics that say 1 seed is best chance to play in SB. Also we know Josh can play weather or dome, doesn't bother me.

[Punching Bag]

Just now, corta765 said:

 

I will forever take the statistics that say 1 seed is best chance to play in SB. Also we know Josh can play weather or dome, doesn't bother me.

 

You and I both know that but many d0me first posters have said that Josh is a California boy in a throwing offense and being outside is an disadvantage to him.

41 minutes ago, boyst said:

topic drift.... who has bigger home field advantage on a random day in january for a playoff game: buffalo or miami?  i'd argue miami.  in buffalo it's not always bone chilling cold or snowing.

 

regardless the number 1 seed this year has a lot of value because we are still a paper tiger, and a pretender. we haven't had the success of the chiefs or bengals. the slight advantage of playing either at home (or anyone else) is yuge.

 

Your NYC accent is showing. 

[Southern_Bills]

3 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

So you're saying we want to win the 1 seed?

 

I've heard it's overrated. 🤷‍♂️

[Boatdrinks]

I’ve heard the Bills should just forfeit their playoff spot if they’re not the #1 seed…

[boyst]

9 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

You and I both know that but many d0me first posters have said that Josh is a California boy in a throwing offense and being outside is an disadvantage to him.

 

Your NYC accent is showing. 

i'm Manhattan af.

[Punching Bag]

11 minutes ago, boyst said:

i'm Manhattan af.

 

Manhattan subdivision located in Wilmington, NC?  

I have a relative there.

[boyst]

3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Manhattan subdivision located in Wilmington, NC?  

I have a relative there.

Nope. Much further West 

 

However tell them to visit bull city ciderworks there. It's amazing. 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

You and I both know that but many d0me first posters have said that Josh is a California boy in a throwing offense and being outside is an disadvantage to him.

 

Your NYC accent is showing. 

He scored four TDs in inclement weather and willed his team to victory!  Go Bills !

[Chaos]

One of the real disconnects among people on this board is the context for commentary.  There are a number of camps. 

1) people who understand what correlates to winning championships.  All of these people have known the importance of the #1 seed before the seasons begin. These people get upset at every single loss, because they understand the dramatic reduction in the liklihood of the championship.  People who don't understand this correlation tend to accuse this group of overreactiing.  But in the context of winning championships they are simply reacting, not over reacting. Except for a couple of bad coaching decisions at the end of games, the Bills would be in the same catbird seat the Eagles are in in the NFC.

2)people who are happy with the Bils being above average in some statisical aspect, and feel as though being above average gives you a good chance to win a championship.  These are the types of posters who in their superior fanhood inform you that the Bills defense is 8th in yards per carry allowed to suggest the Bills run defense is championship caliber, and that no one should be upset about any above single game poor performance. 

3)Peope who are happy to have a better team than the ones assembled by Doug Whaley or coached by Dick Jauron, and freak out at any criticism leveled by the people in group 1 above.  This posters typical respond with some version of "if you don't concede Leslie Frazier is best DC the Bills could possibly have, that means you want to go back to the "Rex Ryan" era.  These people don't seem to realize the 2022 Bills do not have the 2012 Bills on their schedule. 

The people in group one have the highest expectations, and (usually correctly) point out how little it takes to NOT win a championship.  Almost everything has to go right. It seems clear the people criticizing the group one posters really don't understand the context of why they are upset about seemingly minor problems. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Chaos

[ganesh]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

One of the real disconnects among people on this board is the context for commentary.  There are a number of camps. 

1) people who understand what correlates to winning championships.  All of these people have known the importance of the #1 seed before the seasons begin. These people get upset at every single loss, because they understand the dramatic reduction in the liklihood of the championship.  People who don't understand this correlation tend to accuse this group of overreactiing.  But in the context of winning championships they are simply reacting, not over reacting. Except for a couple of bad coaching decisions at the end of games, the Bills would be in the same catbird seat the Eagles are in in the NFC.

2)people who are happy with the Bils being above average in some statisical aspect, and feel as though being above average gives you a good chance to win a championship.  These are the types of posters who in their superior fanhood inform you that the Bills defense is 8th in yards per carry allowed to suggest the Bills run defense is championship caliber, and that no one should be upset about any above single game poor performance. 

3)Peope who are happy to have a better team than the ones assembled by Doug Whaley or coached by Dick Jauron, and freak out at any criticism leveled by the people in group 1 above.  This posters typical respond with some version of "if you don't concede Leslie Frazier is best DC the Bills could possibly have, that means you want to go back to the "Rex Ryan" era.  These people don't seem to realize the 2022 Bills do not have the 2012 Bills on their schedule. 

The people in group one have the highest expectations, and (usually correctly) point out how little it takes to NOT win a championship.  Almost everything has to go right. It seems clear the people criticizing the group one posters really don't understand the context of why they are upset about seemingly minor problems. 

great post of the year.

The margin of error to win a championship is razor thin and a fluke play here and there could deflate you.  However, the teams that win the championships are the ones that do well in what they can control.  At the end of the day, the team that makes the least amount of errors wins the ring.  Go Bills!