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Week 8: SNF Packers at Bills (-10.5) 10/30 8:20pm


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5 minutes ago, GottaRun said:

"Shoot, this might be the best thing for us."  kind of feels like the time someone on this board said losing the next game gave us the best chance of making the playoffs.

Rodgers probably just started a thread on the packers forum about how beating afc teams hurts their playoff chances 

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I know, I know..."Any Given Sunday"...

But it's hard for me to see how this Bills team, which is now pretty healthy and has never lost coming off a bye week under coach McDermott and is playing at home...is going to lose to this absolutely below average Packers team.

Bills have the 2nd ranked scoring offense going against the 15th ranked scoring defense.
Bills have the 1st ranked scoring defense going against the 23rd ranked scoring offense.

Bills are better at just about every position across the board, including -- right this moment, at least -- at quarterback.

I don't see this being one of those close games that has you biting your nails. I see this being one of those "Case Keenum is playing the 4th quarter" games.

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On 10/21/2022 at 7:16 PM, strive_for_five_guy said:

Aaron Rodgers is gonna fold up like a cheap suit against our Defense at home in Primetime.  He’ll be moaning and pissing the whole time, and blame the organization afterward for leaving him with no weapons.  

 

Moats should be player of the game to remind Rodgers what can happen when Green Bay Packers face Bills.

 

 

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Bills are 5-0 and have never lost after the bye week under McDermott...although the games are not typically blowouts either...

 

They have won by 3,3,10,10, and 11 points after byes.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/10/23/23418830/buffalo-bills-undefeated-post-bye-games-sean-mcdermott

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3 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Bills are 5-0 and have never lost after the bye week under McDermott...although the games are not typically blowouts either...

 

They have won by 3,3,10,10, and 11 points after byes.

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/10/23/23418830/buffalo-bills-undefeated-post-bye-games-sean-mcdermott

Sounds like we've won by more points as the team has gotten better.

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11 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Moats should be player of the game to remind Rodgers what can happen when Green Bay Packers face Bills.

 

 

 

If that hit happened today, Moats gets flagged for a penalty for landing with his weight on the body of the QB, probably ejected, fined and possibly suspended.

 

On a completely clean hit.  it's wild how defensive linemen and LB's are playing a different game these days.

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Sharp money in Vegas is coming in on the Packers.  Public betting super lopsided on the Bills.  Just seeing the narratives that the Bills are going to obliterate the Packers makes me uneasy.  Rodgers covers as an underdog the majority of the time and his back is against the wall.  The Packers defense is also built to stop the pass and has the #1 defense in yards per game.  They are also a relatively efficient red zone defense.  
 

Bills big blowout wins have been against teams that are built to run and struggle to pass, with the exception of the Rams.  Difference between Packers and Rams are Rams are horrifically inefficient in the red zone, while the Packers are more efficient than the Bills.  
 

Essentially I’m saying the Packers have the capability to shorten this game, with a strong pass defense, good run game and capable QB play. The Bills will also be incentivized to run the ball as it’s Green Bay’s biggest weakness.  
 

counter argument to this of course is they lost to the Jets by 17. my counter point is if you look at the box score the Jets should have never won by 17.  Blocked punt for a TD.  Awful passing numbers.  We also don’t have a home run threat on the ground like Breece Hall

 

I suspect this to be low scoring, and the Packers to keep it within 7-10.   Bills win though.  Something like 24-14. 
 

To be clear I don’t think there’s any way the Bills lose, nor do I think it will “feel” close. I just think the 10.5 is a suckers bet and all the fans saying they want to tease it to 17 or 21 points are nuts.  

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