Running Backs Being a Dime a Dozen ??

[Solomon Grundy]

20 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Relax.  Watch my Yankees tonight.  🤣

The Mariners blew my high last night. I need the Astros gone 

[Billz4ever]

15 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

The New York Giants ar #26 at 69%.

 

Saquon Barkley is #2 in the NFL with 533 Yards Rushing and 5.5 YPC.

 

#1 Rusher in the NFL, Nick Chubb, has 593 yards and 6.1 YPC with the #17 line. 

 

#5 rusher Dameon Pierce has 412 yards (2 behind #4) and 4.8 YPC and is a rookie with the #31 line.

 

Meanwhile the #1 line in the league with James Connor rushing has only 200 yards and 3.7 YPC.

 

This only illustrates the importance of the skill of your RB, skilled RB with an NFL line will be productive. And if you don't have skill at RB you aren't going to produce.  

When you look at the YPC for our backs, you will see you're wrong.  They get more carries than our backs.  Sounds like you want to take the ball out of Josh's hand and give to a RB in the hopes of having anywhere near the offensive output Josh gets.

[ArtVandalay]

4 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

When you look at the YPC for our backs, you will see you're wrong.  They get more carries than our backs.  Sounds like you want to take the ball out of Josh's hand and give to a RB in the hopes of having anywhere near the offensive output Josh gets.

That's not remotely what i said at all.  I have no idea what post you were reading lmao 🤣

 

Also, you realize that it is harder to maintain a higher YPC with more volume right?

Edited October 12, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

The New York Giants ar #26 at 69%.

 

Saquon Barkley is #2 in the NFL with 533 Yards Rushing and 5.5 YPC.

 

#1 Rusher in the NFL, Nick Chubb, has 593 yards and 6.1 YPC with the #17 line. 

 

#5 rusher Dameon Pierce has 412 yards (2 behind #4) and 4.8 YPC and is a rookie with the #31 line.

 

Meanwhile the #1 line in the league with James Connor rushing has only 200 yards and 3.7 YPC.

 

This only illustrates the importance of the skill of your RB, skilled RB with an NFL line will be productive. And if you don't have skill at RB you aren't going to produce.  

 

We are in Shotgun considerably more than the giants, browns, or texans.  We're still trying to figure out how to more effectively run from shotgun.

 

What we're not going to do is play more under center to fix our run game... then break our passing game that's torching most teams.

 

Barkley has 62 under center carries vs 35 shotgun carries.

Chubb has 76 and 22.

Pierce has 65 and 21.

Singletary has 20 and 20.

  

We're never under center, and when we are we tend to not do as well.  We tend to switch to under center in obvious running situations and we suck at short yardage for that reason.  We also score more points than all of these teams.  

 

The Browns are 2-3 with wins over carolina and pittsburgh, and losses to the jets and falcons.  Their offense is doing well but that's not exactly murderers row of defenses, and they are a unique matchup team since they have a very weak passing attack and play with more of a power running style.

 

The Giants have one of the worst passing offenses in the league, and the texans have one of the worst offenses in the league.  What good are rushing yards if you dont score points? 

[Billz4ever]

1 hour ago, ArtVandalay said:

That's not remotely what i said at all.  I have no idea what post you were reading lmao 🤣

 

Also, you realize that it is harder to maintain a higher YPC with more volume right?

You clearly want to take the ball out of Josh's hands because you're jealous of the Giants running game.  LMAO

[ArtVandalay]

5 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

You clearly want to take the ball out of Josh's hands because you're jealous of the Giants running game.  LMAO

Again didn't say any of this, you are really in your own world here having a conversation that doesn't exist. 

6 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

We are in Shotgun considerably more than the giants, browns, or texans.  We're still trying to figure out how to more effectively run from shotgun.

 

What we're not going to do is play more under center to fix our run game... then break our passing game that's torching most teams.

 

Barkley has 62 under center carries vs 35 shotgun carries.

Chubb has 76 and 22.

Pierce has 65 and 21.

Singletary has 20 and 20.

  

We're never under center, and when we are we tend to not do as well.  We tend to switch to under center in obvious running situations and we suck at short yardage for that reason.  We also score more points than all of these teams.  

 

The Browns are 2-3 with wins over carolina and pittsburgh, and losses to the jets and falcons.  Their offense is doing well but that's not exactly murderers row of defenses, and they are a unique matchup team since they have a very weak passing attack and play with more of a power running style.

 

The Giants have one of the worst passing offenses in the league, and the texans have one of the worst offenses in the league.  What good are rushing yards if you dont score points? 

Right, we have the best QB in the NFL and throw a lot, I think everyone understands this.  I was merely illustrating that our line is not at fault for our rushing game, it is the running backs, and plenty of tabs are successful rushing without top line play due to RB ability.

Edited October 13, 2022 by ArtVandalay

[Dr.Sack]

Running is easier than passing for teams with average to below average QBs. 

[GunnerBill]

On 10/11/2022 at 7:58 PM, gobills404 said:

The Raiders and Jets don't have have bad O-lines though....

 

Run block win rate rankings per ESPN:

Raiders - 2nd

Jets - 12th

Texans - 31st

Bills - 32nd

 

Yards per carry:

Jacobs - 5.4

Hall - 4.9

Pierce - 4.8

Bills RBs - 4.7

 

Nearly a perfect correlation.

 

 

 

Yep. There is the odd elite running back who can succeed even with poor blocking but they are very rare. The overwhelming majority of backs are as productive as their blocking allows them to be. 

[JoPoy88]

13 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

The New York Giants ar #26 at 69%.

 

Saquon Barkley is #2 in the NFL with 533 Yards Rushing and 5.5 YPC.

 

#1 Rusher in the NFL, Nick Chubb, has 593 yards and 6.1 YPC with the #17 line. 

 

#5 rusher Dameon Pierce has 412 yards (2 behind #4) and 4.8 YPC and is a rookie with the #31 line.

 

Meanwhile the #1 line in the league with James Connor rushing has only 200 yards and 3.7 YPC.

 

This only illustrates the importance of the skill of your RB, skilled RB with an NFL line will be productive. And if you don't have skill at RB you aren't going to produce.  

and Josh Allen averages 12.6 yards per completion with 26.6 average completions per game. I simply don’t care about an elite running game. Passing is more efficient and more effective. “Fans” trying to drag this team back into the stone age need to find another team.

[gtw3]

I really don't understand why so many fans are so persistent with this desire to change our offense to be more reliant on the run.  That was us for 20 years.  From Henry to Shady, we have had a steady stream of above average running backs that would get their 20 carries for 100 yards and lead us to a whopping 7-9 record while Brady would throw it all over the place as they counted their trophies. 

 

We were tantalizingly close to hosting the AFC Championship game and being heavily favored to go to the super bowl last year.  We are the betting favorites to win it all this year.  Our QB is the betting favorite to win the MVP. 

 

Our offense is not broken. 

[Billz4ever]

9 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

Again didn't say any of this, you are really in your own world here having a conversation that doesn't exist. 

Right, we have the best QB in the NFL and throw a lot, I think everyone understands this.  I was merely illustrating that our line is not at fault for our rushing game, it is the running backs, and plenty of tabs are successful rushing without top line play due to RB ability.

Our line is statistically the worst run blocking line in the league and you're claiming they have zero responsibility here?  Oh, my.

[benderbender]

21 minutes ago, gtw3 said:

I really don't understand why so many fans are so persistent with this desire to change our offense to be more reliant on the run. 

Not reliant, but it would be nice for it to be a realistic option. How awesome would it be if opposing teams had to game plan for our RBs? It sounds crazy, I know. Preparing for the run is 50% of prep for playing the Titans. Having a rushing attack would make play action actually believable instead of it just being a ritual before a pass play. It would give us something to do when we have a lead that doesn't involve running a QB sweep with the future of our franchise. I'm just hoping that Kromer is breaking out some revolutionary run blocking scheme that just is taking 6 weeks to start seeing results.

[T master]

1 hour ago, gtw3 said:

I really don't understand why so many fans are so persistent with this desire to change our offense to be more reliant on the run.  That was us for 20 years.  From Henry to Shady, we have had a steady stream of above average running backs that would get their 20 carries for 100 yards and lead us to a whopping 7-9 record while Brady would throw it all over the place as they counted their trophies. 

 

We were tantalizingly close to hosting the AFC Championship game and being heavily favored to go to the super bowl last year.  We are the betting favorites to win it all this year.  Our QB is the betting favorite to win the MVP. 

 

Our offense is not broken. 

 

No it's not and i don't believe anyone is saying to change the Bills offense i was saying just adding another dementionto the offense because as i said in the original post if there is a defense out there that can lock down our passing game the Bills are screwed .

 

I don't know if you are old enough to remember the Bills first SB they were the best offense in the league & the Giants shut it down the Bills D in that game were based by the end of it & they lost by 1 point & that's all it takes to lose I'm not at all saying that is going to happen but it could .

 

I would just like to have a added detention to make this team even more unstoppable than they seem to be now not talking about changing just adding to !

[3rdand12]

13 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Running is easier than passing for teams with average to below average QBs. 

Necessary ? 

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. There is the odd elite running back who can succeed even with poor blocking but they are very rare. The overwhelming majority of backs are as productive as their blocking allows them to be. 

yep

5 hours ago, benderbender said:

Not reliant, but it would be nice for it to be a realistic option. How awesome would it be if opposing teams had to game plan for our RBs? It sounds crazy, I know. Preparing for the run is 50% of prep for playing the Titans. Having a rushing attack would make play action actually believable instead of it just being a ritual before a pass play. It would give us something to do when we have a lead that doesn't involve running a QB sweep with the future of our franchise. I'm just hoping that Kromer is breaking out some revolutionary run blocking scheme that just is taking 6 weeks to start seeing results.

I agree the Bills should Always be working on improving the run game via Kromer and likely why he is here finally.
 But do not expect a cloud of dust ( or turf pebbles) type of Offense anytime soon

[ArtVandalay]

15 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

and Josh Allen averages 12.6 yards per completion with 26.6 average completions per game. I simply don’t care about an elite running game. Passing is more efficient and more effective. “Fans” trying to drag this team back into the stone age need to find another team.

Holy straw man! I mean a guess it is scarecrow season so what better time?

 

No one is recommending this, try reading. 

11 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

Our line is statistically the worst run blocking line in the league and you're claiming they have zero responsibility here?  Oh, my.

There's an entire discussion with statistics and everything. You could read it.

[JoPoy88]

3 hours ago, ArtVandalay said:

Holy straw man! I mean a guess it is scarecrow season so what better time?

 

No one is recommending this, try reading. 

There's an entire discussion with statistics and everything. You could read it.

no one’s recommending what? There are multiple people suggesting our backs aren’t good enough and looking to secure someone like CMC for his apparent “eliteness.” So yes I read it and reject it. No strawman proposed genius. Just a counterpoint that with Allen and this passing game someone like CMC (or Josh Jacobs, etc…) isn’t necessary. check your dictionary.

[ArtVandalay]

13 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

no one’s recommending what? There are multiple people suggesting our backs aren’t good enough and looking to secure someone like CMC for his apparent “eliteness.” So yes I read it and reject it. No strawman proposed genius. Just a counterpoint that with Allen and this passing game someone like CMC (or Josh Jacobs, etc…) isn’t necessary. check your dictionary.

This is what you said:

“Fans” trying to drag this team back into the stone age need to find another team.

 

Show me these people are arguing we throw too much and need to be a run heavy offense... I'll wait. 

 

Monster difference between that having an effective running back (who can also contribute as a receiver) who can contribute at a more effective level do we aren't relying on Josh to run it himself on designed runs and do we aren't 1- dimensional especially come winter.

 

It's pretty straight forward what this is, a discussion about our RB talent and production, with the counted point being to the line play and their impact to the run game. 

 

Absolutely no one is saying such this offense and become a run heavy team. 

[Alphadawg7]

RB's are not a dime a dozen, at least not good or great ones.  

 

This gets constantly misused and misstated...the reality of where this came from is merely from the fact a lot of very good or better RB's have come outside the first round of the draft.  But so has the best WR's too, but people don't say they are a dime a dozen.  The majority of the best WR's in the NFL came in rounds 2 or later.  Same with OL for example, which is probably even more important than "who" is running the ball as a great OL can make even a mediocre RB look good.  

 

Yet the only position the "dime a dozen" label gets used on is RB.  And the reason I think that happens is because people see the RB position in general as devalued in what has become a pass dominant league.  And now having a shift where you are seeing more and more QB's come in and have throwing success with the ability to also run the ball (Allen, Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert, Jalen, Wilson, etc), it only further has diminished the perceived value of the RB.  

 

But truth is, finding a good to great RB isn't all that easy, and even if you do, you can limit their effectiveness if you don't have a strong OL, or a good passing attack to keep them from stacking the box, etc.  A good to great RB isn't just a good ball carrier, they are a good receiving option and also need to be good in pass protection.  Its just not easy to find a complete package like that.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

RB's are not a dime a dozen, at least not good or great ones.  

 

This gets constantly misused and misstated...the reality of where this came from is merely from the fact a lot of very good or better RB's have come outside the first round of the draft.  But so has the best WR's too, but people don't say they are a dime a dozen.  The majority of the best WR's in the NFL came in rounds 2 or later.  Same with OL for example, which is probably even more important than "who" is running the ball as a great OL can make even a mediocre RB look good.  

 

Yet the only position the "dime a dozen" label gets used on is RB.  And the reason I think that happens is because people see the RB position in general as devalued in what has become a pass dominant league.  And now having a shift where you are seeing more and more QB's come in and have throwing success with the ability to also run the ball (Allen, Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert, Jalen, Wilson, etc), it only further has diminished the perceived value of the RB.  

 

But truth is, finding a good to great RB isn't all that easy, and even if you do, you can limit their effectiveness if you don't have a strong OL, or a good passing attack to keep them from stacking the box, etc.  A good to great RB isn't just a good ball carrier, they are a good receiving option and also need to be good in pass protection.  Its just not easy to find a complete package like that.  

 

I think part of the challenge is determining a value.  Usage to me doesn't equate to value.  Often the complete package is determined to be a better option than 2 or 3 incomplete packages, and I'm not really sure if this is true (outside of fantasy) .

 

Take Mixon for example - over his last 4 years he has been a running back workhorse and generally a "complete" running back.  He has averaged 3.91 YPC and has scored on 2.8% of carries, while earning 7.33 yards per catch.  Zach Moss has averaged 4.08 YPC, has scored on 3.5% of carries, and 7.25 yards per catch for his career - and we can probably all agree the way he's played this year we can consider him at the very least "replacement level".  

 

Mixon signed a deal last year for 4yr 48million.  I think looking at the numbers above and also during time missed for injury in 2020, he wasn't any more effective than the combination of Perine, Bernard, and Trayveon Williams.  They can probably get similar production from a stable of rookie contracts or moderately priced free agents.  

 

Le'veon bell is another example - he held out multiple times trying to get that extension and sat out all of 2018.  In 2018 Pittsburgh rushed for fewer yards, but they did so in far fewer plays and with greater efficiency.

 

Bell - 321 for 1291 9 TDs and 85 catches for 655 and 2 TDs

Conner/Samuels - 271 for 1229 12 TDs, 81 catches for 696 and 4 TDs.

[NewEra]

While it will never happen….It would be amazing to see Saquon and Josh in the same backfield.  Oh my.

[Nelius]

RB's aren't a dime a dozen at all, but that doesn't mean that you reach for a good one. It's all about system fit nowadays. Motor fits. His ypc is really nice over the years. You could probably put him on a lamer team like the Commanders and he might churn out 1200 rushing yards (I think he's better than Gibson at this point) but it wouldn't matter anything to them because they'd still be terrible.

 

I think most agree that RB is very important, it's just not the gaudy stat producing position of the early '90s (Natrone Means knows what I mean), and you also don't usually need to pay very much for somebody serviceable. I'm perfectly fine with our group over Saquon or McCaffrey.

[Thurman#1]

On 10/12/2022 at 3:34 AM, T master said:

We have heard from the Experts & some here that feel that running backs are a dime a dozen they say you can basically plug in any running back into any system & it's the system or scheme that determines how good the running game will be the individual talent of the back has little or nothing to do with the out come of that stat or performance of that part of the team .

 

I beg to differ ! This year there are a few running backs that i would love to see in a Bills uni there out put each week would be a welcome sight & would make this team almost unstoppable .

 

There were a few running backs this week that despite not having a really good O line made their run games much better just by their individual talent . Some here say our run game is bad because of the O line play these guys made it happen despite their O lines short comings .

 

Josh Jacobs for the Raiders had 21 carries this week for 154 yds & 1 TD that's 7.3 ypc .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFya5KRQguE week 4 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFya5KRQguE week 5

 

Breece Hall of the Jets had 18 carries for 97 yds & 1 TD that's 5.4 ypc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFya5KRQguE

 

Dameon Peirce of the Texans had 26 carries for 99 yds & a TD and he made 17 people miss after contact & pulled out of the tackle 

 

Can you imagine either one of these backs behind Josh as a complimentary back with Motor other than Moss ? If every time the Bills needed to run they could depend on this type of out put even if as some here say the lack of O line play .

 

I have always thought that the "Experts" say that running backs are a dime a dozen is pretty much B S ! There are those backs out there that have above average talent & if we had gotten one say a AJ Dillion, or took Breece Hall when he was there or i liked Brian Robison our run game would be much better because these guys are worth at least .50 a dozen .

 

 

Dime a dozen is an exaggeration. It's a lazy way to say it. But is it reasonable to argue that spending a lot of resources on RBs has in general produced not much more production than waiting and picking a guy a bit later or paying a journeyman? Not unreasonable at all. 

 

And as has been said many times before, the problem with our run game is not the RBs. It's the OL. We would not be much better with the other guys you mention. A bit better, especially in aspects that each of those guys is better at (Dillon at power and CMC at evasiveness, speed and gadgetry, for example)? Yeah, probably fair enough. But not a lot better.

 

I wanted Dillon too but he was gone way too early. I love his toughness, but he was over-drafted.

 

The question isn't whether there are some RBs out there who were worth drafting early and spending serious resources on. There are. Guys like Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Mixon are worth it. CMC was worth drafting where they drafted him, but his health makes him questionable now. There just aren't that many of those guys who are worth drafting in the first round or paying a top 7 or 8 RB salary to. Very few.

 

1st rounders in the last few years, since 2010:  

 

CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott (4th overall), Leonard Fournette, McCaffrey, Saquon, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne.

 

How many real difference makers there, out of 19 1st round picks. Several of those guys looked like difference makers but then either wore down, got injured and never were the same or just got dispirited.

 

And the difference in production to the team between the guys below those few difference-makers and everyone else just doesn't make it a good use of resources to spend major resources on an RB.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 10/13/2022 at 11:58 AM, ArtVandalay said:

Again didn't say any of this, you are really in your own world here having a conversation that doesn't exist. 

Right, we have the best QB in the NFL and throw a lot, I think everyone understands this.  I was merely illustrating that our line is not at fault for our rushing game, it is the running backs, and plenty of tabs are successful rushing without top line play due to RB ability.

 

 

You're not illustrating that at all, though you're trying to make the argument.

 

It really is the OL that's in for easily the largest amount of blame.

 

Hopefully that can improve as time passes and the OL gels, as it did last year near the end of the year.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 10/13/2022 at 4:35 AM, ArtVandalay said:

The New York Giants ar #26 at 69%.

 

Saquon Barkley is #2 in the NFL with 533 Yards Rushing and 5.5 YPC.

 

#1 Rusher in the NFL, Nick Chubb, has 593 yards and 6.1 YPC with the #17 line. 

 

#5 rusher Dameon Pierce has 412 yards (2 behind #4) and 4.8 YPC and is a rookie with the #31 line.

 

Meanwhile the #1 line in the league with James Connor rushing has only 200 yards and 3.7 YPC.

 

This only illustrates the importance of the skill of your RB, skilled RB with an NFL line will be productive. And if you don't have skill at RB you aren't going to produce.  

 

 

That's not a strong argument. It's cherry-picking and it's leaving out context.

 

Yeah, for people who don't go and look at the actual stats, it seems like the difference between the Bills' 65% and the Giants' 69% is tiny. But it's not. Not when the highest is 75%. The Giants are barely below average. The Bills are horrendous at 65%. Nobody else is at 65%. Or 66%. Only three teams are bad enough to be at 67%, the Commanders, Chargers and Texans. And only one is at 68%, the Patriots.

 

You're twisting what the numbers show, which is that the Bills are much worse than anyone else in the league at run blocking. So far.

 

Nobody's arguing that Barkley isn't damn good. He is right now. But with a near-average line. Not a truly sucky one like the Bills have up to now, though they do seem to be doing well when they use pin-and-pull blocking.

 

Oh, and yes, James Conner is at 3.7, but Eno Benjamin is at 4.5, and Darrel Williams is at 5.9.

 

It's never 100% OL or RB. It's always a combination of both. But when your OL is really bad, that will be the largest factor. This Bills team is awful at yards before contact, because the line sucks. And pretty solid at yards after contact because the RBs, most particularly Singletary, are good. Not great. But solid. 

 

Excluding Allen, 4.4 YPC behind a line that isn't just last but last by a lot. The RBs don't get much of the blame here.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Thurman#1

[T master]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Dime a dozen is an exaggeration. It's a lazy way to say it. But is it reasonable to argue that spending a lot of resources on RBs has in general produced not much more production than waiting and picking a guy a bit later or paying a journeyman? Not unreasonable at all. 

 

And as has been said many times before, the problem with our run game is not the RBs. It's the OL. We would not be much better with the other guys you mention. A bit better, especially in aspects that each of those guys is better at (Dillon at power and CMC at evasiveness, speed and gadgetry, for example)? Yeah, probably fair enough. But not a lot better.

 

I wanted Dillon too but he was gone way too early. I love his toughness, but he was over-drafted.

 

The question isn't whether there are some RBs out there who were worth drafting early and spending serious resources on. There are. Guys like Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Mixon are worth it. CMC was worth drafting where they drafted him, but his health makes him questionable now. There just aren't that many of those guys who are worth drafting in the first round or paying a top 7 or 8 RB salary to. Very few.

 

1st rounders in the last few years, since 2010:  

 

CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott (4th overall), Leonard Fournette, McCaffrey, Saquon, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne.

 

How many real difference makers there, out of 19 1st round picks. Several of those guys looked like difference makers but then either wore down, got injured and never were the same or just got dispirited.

 

And the difference in production to the team between the guys below those few difference-makers and everyone else just doesn't make it a good use of resources to spend major resources on an RB.

 

 

 

All that being said i would really like to see the Bills utilize some of the players that they have had because you never know exactly what they might be until they are in the game .

 

Like this year they had Blackshear the dude was killing it in the preseason & showed good vision okay it was pre season & it wasn't against the starters but before you put him on the PS (Which they did & lost him) TRY HIM in a game see if what he was doing would translate to the field .

 

I know some might say well he's not doing anything now with the team he's on but some flourish in certain schemes better than others the same with the last guy they had the international player he flashed during preseason so what would it hurt to at least put them on the field for a game or 2 during the season ? 

 

I guess the coaches must see things that turns them off but there are those few that i just don't understand why they don't give them a shot .