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Ayman Al Zawahiri, Al Qaeda #2 Dead

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B-Man Hall of Famer

B-Man

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Hmmmmm.

 

From three weeks ago.

 

 

What Leadership Type will Succeed Al-Qaeda’s al-Zawahiri?

Tricia Bacon, Elizabeth Grimm15 Jul 2022

 

Questions of succession loom large for al-Qaeda. By most accounts, al-Qaeda leader Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri is alive, but in poor health, and thus questions of succession loom large for the group.

 

This succession—when it occurs—would mark only the second leadership transition for al-Qaeda in its more than 30-year existence. During his time as al-Qaeda’s leader, al-Zawahiri persisted in following the blueprint developed by Usama bin Laden. In so doing, he provided a degree of consistency for the group, which has faced unprecedented counter-terrorism (CT) pressure since 2001. At the same time, his approach to leadership and the CT environment the group faced made it difficult, perhaps impossible, for al-Zawahiri to rejuvenate the beleaguered organisation. Such are the trade-offs of what we call a ‘caretaker leader’. While many have criticised al-Zawahiri’s characteristics as a leader, we argue that rather than focusing on al-Zawahiri or his potential successor’s personality traits, the more critical question to examine is what type of leader al-Zawahiri has been and what type his eventual successor could be.

 

Despite extensive criticism of al-Zawahiri as uncharismatic, fractious [p.256], and overall incompetent [p.47], al-Zawahiri has been a steadfast steward of bin Laden’s legacy for al-Qaeda—leading some to comment that, “if Osama bin Laden were alive today, he’d likely be a happy man.” The al-Qaeda of today has, primarily through its affiliates, expanded geographically, increased its strength in places like Yemen, Syria, and sub-Saharan Africa, and remained a leader within the jihadist community. But al-Qaeda core has experienced significant losses. Though it now enjoys safe haven in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime, the US Intelligence Community assesses it lacks the capability to conduct major transnational attacks, a hallmark of al-Qaeda’s approach.

 

https://icct.nl/publication/what-leadership-type-will-succeed-al-qaedas-al-zawahiri/

 

 

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LeviF Hall of Famer

LeviF

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26 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


Takes a twisted mind to think up these things…

 

Imagine seeing that thing coming after you. Gonna ***** your pants before you die 100%

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sherpa Veteran

sherpa

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39 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


Takes a twisted mind to think up these things…

 

On the other hand a reasonable corollary is that it takes a responsible gov/military to spend the money to get this to production.

It is basically an airborne assassin aimed to get one person.

 

Far more humanitarian than lobbing artillery shells or cluster bombs, which would kill everything within a football field area.

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dpberr Veteran

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Hasn't this guy been "confirmed" dead for a decade?  He and Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri (Saddam's right hand) have died like 10 times.  

 

I find it odd as how neat and packaged this appears.  They found him in a wealthy suburb of Kabul.  The Taliban and al-Qaeda aren't exactly friends.  This isn't Pakistani ISI turning a blind eye to bin Laden living in their country.  (They knew.) Why would al-Zawahiri be in the open in an unfriendly country that is teeming with foreign intelligence surveillance after spending decades in hiding, and doing a great job of ot?  

 

I find it even more unusual he so happened to be standing on a balcony, the perfect spot for a drone strike, where no one else would be harmed.  

 

It's just very...neat. On the other hand, the US dropped two 500lb bombs on a single house to kill al-Zarqawi in Iraq, and sent special operations into someone else's country to kill bin Laden.

 

As time has gone on, one of the more uncomfortable realizations I've had as an adult is that 9/11 may not be what we've (American public) been told.    

Edited by dpberr
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sherpa Veteran

sherpa

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1 hour ago, dpberr said:

 

It's just very...neat. On the other hand, the US dropped two 500lb bombs on a single house to kill al-Zarqawi in Iraq, and sent special operations into someone else's country to kill bin Laden.

 

As time has gone on, one of the more uncomfortable realizations I've had as an adult is that 9/11 may not be what we've (American public) been told.    

 

I'm not sure of your logic here.

Getting Zarqawi, and the weapons used, was a vastly different circumstance and operation.

Regarding 9/11, I think you should remain "comfortable" about the conclusions. 

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GaryPinC Veteran

GaryPinC

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5 hours ago, DRsGhost said:

 

This is the most important thing getting glossed over.  Wasted 20 years and how much money and back where we started?

 

The Taliban broke their word to us.  We should have a drone war over there to perform  assassinations of their senior leadership and raze any terrorist camps until the Taliban make changes. 

 

From the link:

 

Zawahiri's "death is undeniable proof that Afghanistan is a safe haven for al Qaeda's top leadership," said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal. "He was sheltered, in Kabul, by the Haqqani family, whose top leader is also one of two deputy Taliban emirs and the interior minister of Afghanistan."

Roggio was referring to Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has worked closely with al Qaeda and, according to a U.N. report, is "a member of the wider al Qaeda leadership." He's been wanted by the FBI for planning an attack that killed a U.S. citizen. As interior minister, Haqqani can issue passports, giving him the ability to allow terrorists to travel in and out of Afghanistan.

"The strike will be touted as a successful counterterrorism operation," said Roggio, "but it really highlights the failure of two decades of Afghanistan policy, which culminated in withdrawal last summer."

 

Since the U.S. withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan last August, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda have renounced their alliance, and waves of extremists linked to both groups have come to Afghanistan. Roggio has detailed how the Pentagon continues to downplay al Qaeda's strength in the country. The group is currently running training camps across Afghanistan.

Weeks before Zawahiri's death, the U.N. said al Qaeda's "leadership reportedly plays an advisory role with the Taliban, and the groups remain close."

The drone strike "doesn't change the fact that Afghanistan is a petri dish, growing threats to the region and beyond, because al Qaeda and ISIS have uncovered a space there," said Hoffman. "This is the only strike we've taken in about a year. So that doesn't mean the war is over."

 

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BillStime Hall of Famer

BillStime

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4 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

This is the most important thing getting glossed over.  Wasted 20 years and how much money and back where we started?

 

The Taliban broke their word to us.  We should have a drone war over there to perform  assassinations of their senior leadership and raze any terrorist camps until the Taliban make changes. 

 

From the link:

 

Zawahiri's "death is undeniable proof that Afghanistan is a safe haven for al Qaeda's top leadership," said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal. "He was sheltered, in Kabul, by the Haqqani family, whose top leader is also one of two deputy Taliban emirs and the interior minister of Afghanistan."

Roggio was referring to Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has worked closely with al Qaeda and, according to a U.N. report, is "a member of the wider al Qaeda leadership." He's been wanted by the FBI for planning an attack that killed a U.S. citizen. As interior minister, Haqqani can issue passports, giving him the ability to allow terrorists to travel in and out of Afghanistan.

"The strike will be touted as a successful counterterrorism operation," said Roggio, "but it really highlights the failure of two decades of Afghanistan policy, which culminated in withdrawal last summer."

 

Since the U.S. withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan last August, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda have renounced their alliance, and waves of extremists linked to both groups have come to Afghanistan. Roggio has detailed how the Pentagon continues to downplay al Qaeda's strength in the country. The group is currently running training camps across Afghanistan.

Weeks before Zawahiri's death, the U.N. said al Qaeda's "leadership reportedly plays an advisory role with the Taliban, and the groups remain close."

The drone strike "doesn't change the fact that Afghanistan is a petri dish, growing threats to the region and beyond, because al Qaeda and ISIS have uncovered a space there," said Hoffman. "This is the only strike we've taken in about a year. So that doesn't mean the war is over."

 

 

The US pullout of Afghanistan is such a nice GQP talking points and completely deflects who put the US in this position in the first place.
 

Who negotiated with terrorist - released 5,000 Taliban prisoners and handed the keys over to the Taliban?

 

This guy:


giphy.gif?cid=5e214886x150mo2da8oprn4n32

 

Edited by BillStime
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Over 29 years of fanhood Hall of Famer

Over 29 years of fanhood

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

This is the most important thing getting glossed over.  Wasted 20 years and how much money and back where we started?

 

The Taliban broke their word to us.  We should have a drone war over there to perform  assassinations of their senior leadership and raze any terrorist camps until the Taliban make changes. 

 

From the link:

 

Zawahiri's "death is undeniable proof that Afghanistan is a safe haven for al Qaeda's top leadership," said Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the Long War Journal. "He was sheltered, in Kabul, by the Haqqani family, whose top leader is also one of two deputy Taliban emirs and the interior minister of Afghanistan."

Roggio was referring to Sirajuddin Haqqani, who has worked closely with al Qaeda and, according to a U.N. report, is "a member of the wider al Qaeda leadership." He's been wanted by the FBI for planning an attack that killed a U.S. citizen. As interior minister, Haqqani can issue passports, giving him the ability to allow terrorists to travel in and out of Afghanistan.

"The strike will be touted as a successful counterterrorism operation," said Roggio, "but it really highlights the failure of two decades of Afghanistan policy, which culminated in withdrawal last summer."

 

Since the U.S. withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan last August, neither the Taliban nor al Qaeda have renounced their alliance, and waves of extremists linked to both groups have come to Afghanistan. Roggio has detailed how the Pentagon continues to downplay al Qaeda's strength in the country. The group is currently running training camps across Afghanistan.

Weeks before Zawahiri's death, the U.N. said al Qaeda's "leadership reportedly plays an advisory role with the Taliban, and the groups remain close."

The drone strike "doesn't change the fact that Afghanistan is a petri dish, growing threats to the region and beyond, because al Qaeda and ISIS have uncovered a space there," said Hoffman. "This is the only strike we've taken in about a year. So that doesn't mean the war is over."

 


Biden needs some wins….  Killing al qaeda leaders bumps the approval rating. Nothing more to see here 

2 hours ago, ChiGoose said:

The importance of good speech writers…

 

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1554294718254780418?s=21&t=xiwAjMNSATTIfxx9fBufJg


Good god we need age limits on POTUS eligibility.

 

You’ve got articulate, vibrant and energetic orator under 50, crazy angry 70 year old, and barely alive muttering 80 year old… 🙄  

Edited by Over 29 years of fanhood
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Irv Veteran

Irv

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19 hours ago, gobilz said:

Joe is a killa 

 

He's a killa alright!

 

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GaryPinC Veteran

GaryPinC

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Posted
26 minutes ago, BillStime said:


 

 

The US pullout of Afghanistan is such a nice GQP talking points and complexity deflects who put the US in this position in the first place.
 

Who negotiated with terrorist - released 5,000 Taliban prisoners and handed the keys over to the Taliban?

 

This guy:


giphy.gif?cid=5e214886x150mo2da8oprn4n32

 

Trump has his share of blame also, but the entire operation was rotten from Bush through Biden.  While women's rights and education took a huge, temporary leap forward, we failed as a nation to facilitate a better way for the population of Afghanistan.  They were so quick to abdicate to the Taliban.  All 4 presidents failed in their own way.  You can be stupid and focus on the one(s) you hate, or try and learn the real lessons of failure so we don't repeat them.

31 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


Biden needs some wins….  Killing al qaeda leaders bumps the approval rating. Nothing more to see here 


Good god we need age limits on POTUS eligibility.

 

You’ve got articulate, vibrant and energetic orator under 50, crazy angry 70 year old, and barely alive muttering 80 year old… 🙄  

Then he should go ahead and kill more of them.  Starting with the Haqqani leadership.

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Over 29 years of fanhood Hall of Famer

Over 29 years of fanhood

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6 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Trump has his share of blame also, but the entire operation was rotten from Bush through Biden.  While women's rights and education took a huge, temporary leap forward, we failed as a nation to facilitate a better way for the population of Afghanistan.  They were so quick to abdicate to the Taliban.  All 4 presidents failed in their own way.  You can be stupid and focus on the one(s) you hate, or try and learn the real lessons of failure so we don't repeat them.

 

 
rare and refreshing independent thought…. 

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sherpa Veteran

sherpa

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2 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Trump has his share of blame also, but the entire operation was rotten from Bush through Biden.  While women's rights and education took a huge, temporary leap forward, we failed as a nation to facilitate a better way for the population of Afghanistan.  They were so quick to abdicate to the Taliban.  All 4 presidents failed in their own way.  

 

I think this is one of the issues that people who live in the west will never comprehend.

Afghanistan is not a country in the manner of how we view countries.

It is a tribal, nomadic group of clans with no common purpose other than survival.

 

It was that way when the Russians invaded in 1980 and it is that way now.

 

There is no way that any optimistic, come to the 21th century influence from the west was going to change that.

Never has.

 

The only way it can be dealt with is to eliminate the threats that occasionally emerge from there.

 

Still, the "withdrawal" of our forces from there should have cost the SecDef his job.

Just a total debacle by any objective measure.

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GaryPinC Veteran

GaryPinC

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2 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I think this is one of the issues that people who live in the west will never comprehend.

Afghanistan is not a country in the manner of how we view countries.

It is a tribal, nomadic group of clans with no common purpose other than survival.

 

It was that way when the Russians invaded in 1980 and it is that way now.

 

There is no way that any optimistic, come to the 21th century influence from the west was going to change that.

Never has.

 

The only way it can be dealt with is to eliminate the threats that occasionally emerge from there.

 

Still, the "withdrawal" of our forces from there should have cost the SecDef his job.

Just a total debacle by any objective measure.

Thanks for your perspective, I can only say it should have changed our ultimate mission and length of time there.  I can certainly agree about Sec of Def, though the change in administrations certainly exacerbated the debacle. 

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