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Warren Sharp fades the Bills - do they even get to 12 wins this year?


YoloinOhio
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Buffalo's offense has been completely derailed for long stretches in games at times. Allen and his legs generally being the only savior when this occurs. Our defense has been prone to a bend but don't break style which breaks more as the competition increases and we struggled against power run teams. Our division is unquestionably better and the AFC is insanely deep. I do think we are one of the best teams, if not the best as you forecast out this season.

 

That said, we are everybody's favorite and the reaction in this thread to what Sharp said shows the value from a sports betting perspective.  Win or lose, it's unlikely that value exists on this over as everybody is on Buffalo. To take that side, you have to say Vegas just missed on this. Which I don't like to say. The reality is they need to get to 13 wins to cover this bet, that is very difficult. A lot of things need to go correctly for that to happen. I sure as hell hope it does. I can't wager on this, but if this wasn't my team I would fade the public and take the under. I would only play over at 11.5 which I think is the fair total on this. 

 

Action sports which offers some really good insights had this to say. I agree with all of it. They actually have 11.5 but -130/-140 for the over. Too steep a tax for me. 

 

Buffalo Bills
It’s remarkable to see a team with a 11-6 record go 0-5 in one-score games. The Bills could have easily been a 13- or 14-win team if they won a couple of those.

The Bills are the No. 1 team in my power ratings and the team to beat in the NFL this season. Buffalo benefited from having the second-best injury luck and the easiest strength of schedule last season, and its depth will be tested more this season against the 11th-toughest schedule.

I’m showing some slight value on the Bills to go Under 11.5 wins at +120, but this is a team I’m uninterested in fading.

Verdict: Lean Under 11.5 (+120, Caesars)

 

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On 8/1/2022 at 10:13 AM, Don Otreply said:

And so the pendulum swings, so much positive media hype, and now…,  the bills can barely get out of there own way, 🥱 seriously who buys into this 💩

 

Go Bills!!!

I don't!

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I am struggling to understand the "only played x playoff team" metric. 

 

I could be wrong but by my count every playoff team played between 5-8 playoff teams. 

 

We are really making a stink about 6 being a low amount? Max two games? I mean I couldve counted wrong somewhere but thats not a great metric.

 

Then on top of it, yes we lost 4 of the 6, but we didn't get blown out of any of them. In fact, the 4 we lost were:

 

Patriots Wind Game (go ahead and hold that against us, I am sure itll happen again 🙄)

Titans came down to the last snap of the game

Buccaneers came down to OT

Steelers we lost and that one sucked

 

We dismantled the Chiefs and the Patriots (part 2).

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On 8/1/2022 at 9:07 AM, BTB said:

Oh no!  Warren Sharp said what!

 

Wait a minute…WGAS about what Warren Sharp says?

 

 

PS Maybe the yolo bot needs some fine tuning. 

He wasn't being a hater or anything. He likes the team. Might of been good for me because even thought I'm a realist when it comes to teams I'm a fan of, I could be knocked down a peck or two with these Bills. I guess I can respect the man's opinion. 

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On 8/1/2022 at 5:09 PM, clayboy54 said:

Every year we have the hardest schedule going in. Then, in part due to the Bills beating up on teams, they say we had the easiest schedule. Really, these are petty arguments made in hindsight. We will play the teams on our schedule. No team is ever a cakewalk. In the end we'll make the playoffs and see where we go from there.

 

This is simply not true.   Based on the previous seasons' records the Bills had the 24th most difficult schedule in 2019, the 5th hardest in 2020, the 23rd hardest in 2021 and has the 12th hardest this upcoming season.

 

In fact, most likely the primary cause of the Bills drop in defensive ranking had little to do with the defense (or missing Star -- a prime example of correlation is not causation) and mostly because they had a murderous schedule especially during the first half of the season.  Similarly, the reason the Bills defense did so well without Tre White was not because White was not missed but because they faced a  bunch of very weak offenses at the end of last season.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

This is simply not true.   Based on the previous seasons' records the Bills had the 24th most difficult schedule in 2019, the 5th hardest in 2020, the 23rd hardest in 2021 and has the 12th hardest this upcoming season.

 

In fact, most likely the primary cause of the Bills drop in defensive ranking had little to do with the defense (or missing Star -- a prime example of correlation is not causation) and mostly because they had a murderous schedule especially during the first half of the season.  Similarly, the reason the Bills defense did so well without Tre White was not because White was not missed but because they faced a  bunch of very weak offenses at the end of last season.

 

 

But, you forgot to reference preseason rankings. Some teams were rated "tough" and turned out "weak." Others were rated "weak" and turned out to be "very tough." You simply don't know who's good and who's not until they play the games. As an example, this year the Bills seem to be one of the favorites to win the Superbowl. If we beat up on other teams, people might say "they beat weaker teams." It is clear that the best teams make other good teams look weak. Alternatively, if we lose a bunch of games, people might say that the Bills faced a "murderers row" of tough teams. Maybe not. You just can't possibly know.

 

Quoting post-season records is hindsight. Next February, our 2022 schedule might in-fact be ranked quite different than 12th hardest.

 

My point was simply to say that any given week, one team can make another team look weak or strong. Yet the very next week it might be the opposite.

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1 hour ago, clayboy54 said:

But, you forgot to reference preseason rankings. Some teams were rated "tough" and turned out "weak." Others were rated "weak" and turned out to be "very tough." You simply don't know who's good and who's not until they play the games. As an example, this year the Bills seem to be one of the favorites to win the Superbowl. If we beat up on other teams, people might say "they beat weaker teams." It is clear that the best teams make other good teams look weak. Alternatively, if we lose a bunch of games, people might say that the Bills faced a "murderers row" of tough teams. Maybe not. You just can't possibly know.

 

Quoting post-season records is hindsight. Next February, our 2022 schedule might in-fact be ranked quite different than 12th hardest.

 

My point was simply to say that any given week, one team can make another team look weak or strong. Yet the very next week it might be the opposite.

 

Yes.  Every season somebody always saying the schedule is much tougher this year.  SoS means nothing before the season.  Teams go from crap to good and from good to crap.

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4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes.  Every season somebody always saying the schedule is much tougher this year.  SoS means nothing before the season.  Teams go from crap to good and from good to crap.

 

 

Yes, there are exceptions but on average they work out and that is all you can really apply statistics to.  Statistics cannot predict exact results just what is more likely.

 

If you look at after each of those seasons, I think you would say exactly what the statistics regarding the previous season's record predicted.  The schedule for 2020 was really difficult and the schedules for 2019 and 2021 were significantly easier.  (Although the 2019 schedule turned out to be a easier than even predicted while the 2021 was a little bit more difficult).

 

To go back to the original post that I was responding to, I am simply pointing that there was no huge difference between what the strength of schedule was thought to be at the beginning of the season and what it was thought to be at the end.

 

 

 

 

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On 8/1/2022 at 10:12 AM, Captain Hindsight said:

I like Warren Sharp, but this seems like fishing for clicks

I really dig him. He brings a different type of voice than every other talking head.

 

In fairness, none of what he said was incorrect, and I also don't think he was dogging us at all. Especially it being framed from a gamblers perspective. Winning 12 games this year will be trickier than last year. Were going to need some lucky bounces, and to not lose those 1 score games.

 

We just don't like anyone thats not sizing up joshs super bowl ring right now. I think both views are fair

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If you blindly bet under on team win totals of 10 or more and over on teams with totals of 5 or more, you hit like 60% of the time. If they Bills go 11-6 they fall under their Vegas win totals, and 11-6 is still a great season. Sharp is fantastic when it comes to dissecting analytics and playcalling trends, but this is just low hanging fruit. 

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