2022 NFL Draft - Day 2 Debrief

[LEBills]

25 minutes ago, Shake_My_Head said:

Well, how many first round worthy WRs drop to the bottom of the round, where the Bills pick?   They're generally gone by pick 20 or so, as bad teams ahead of the Bills scoup them up--pushing other positions down the board for Beane.   

 

They've used FA for WR2 and WR3, getting vets who could help Josh grow and develop.   With the salary cap constraints that kick in next year, I suspect 2023 is the year they work the draft to land cost-controlled WRs to bolster the offense.

 

24 minutes ago, ganesh said:

The Bills were in a difficult situation in all the three rounds when there was a run on WRs right before them that pretty much took away any chance on them to get a WR.  I am sure if Moore, Pickens etc were on the board at our pick, we would have selected them. 

 

Additionally, the Bills have already picked McKenzie and Crowder in FA....so they were not going to invest a high pick on WR unless they fell to their draft position.

The Bills WR is not terrible now, but it is thin. Sometimes you have to be aggressive and move up into those runs to be players in WRs or just move back and take your next best one. It would be nice to get a higher end guy in before we need him so he can develop before he is needed…like we seem to do with off ball LBs which are a much lesser value position.

 

It is what it is, there are only so much money for free agents and draft picks each year but we have been very defense heavy lately (last big draft capital used on offense was Diggs and last big FA offense signing was 2019 when they signed Smoke, Beasley and OLineman) and it’s time to give Josh more help. 

[Dopey]

Let's not confuse lack of high draft picks on wr with not addressing the position. We gave up draft capital on Diggs, we drafted Davis, we brought in Beasley, and everyone's super hero Zay replacement Duke. Sanders, Crowder, Knox. OJ Howard, McKenzie. Comparisons to other teams isn't fair. Gunner mentioned Dallas. What has that gotten them?  They've made the playoffs 2x since 2016. Those teams are lacking somewhere. We're still one of the deepest teams out there.

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

To be fair, most contending teams are in the “if we lose this player…” predicament. Impossible to have quality depth everywhere.

[RangerDave]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Brandon Beane serves at McDermott's discretion. 

Does this mean then that Beane cannot get fired without McDermott also getting fired?  What would Beane's performance measures be, if he is not responsible for the drafting of players?  Does McD also tell him which FAs to sign and which of our own players do we re-sign?  Who determines length and size of contracts?

 

I am not disagreeing with you, I am just curious.

[OldTimer1960]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Im not overlooking it.. I don’t know that the Chiefs will be even close to as dynamic as they’ve been with Hill.  He’s that special.  
 

What I’m saying is that we have posters saying we don’t need a WR, when we have two legitimate outside WR’s.  
 

The Chiefs have MVS, Hardman and Juju as their starters, then still went out and got Mahomes Skyy Moore.  
 

We have Diggs, Davis and Crowder… a better 3-wide than the Chiefs, but after them we have a gadget/slot in McKenzie and that’s really it. 

I don’t think that anyone said that we couldn’t use a WR.  We NEEDED a CB and took one.  Note that not many CBs were picked last night after Booth and Gordon went early - people touting Tariq Woolen and McCollum as 2nd round options were wishful thinking trying to rationalize not filling the glaring need at CB.

 

I’m not a huge fan of the Cook pick, but he does a lot of what someone like Sky Moore would have done had they taken him. Cook is listed at RB, but his value is as a receiver.  
 

By late round 3, there were few WRs of value left after the Cowboys nabbed Tolbert.  I’m really struggling to see what they like about Bernard, but who was the WR that they could have taken there?

 

For a draft where ther was supposed to be great value in the middle rounds, It sure didn’t feel like that when looking at available players at the Bills’ picks.

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I believe that I teach asked the Pegulas to fire the other, Beane would go, but I dont know it with certainty you express.  How do you know this?  

 

From everything they themselves tell us. It is pretty clear Sean has the power. He said himself last week he is more involved in the draft than most coaches. I don't know that they have ever had to formally give him roster control because he and Beane work absolutely in lock step. But if there were some sort of fallout (which I doubt will ever happen) and McDermott demanded a new GM I am as certain as it is possible to be that he would get it.

40 minutes ago, Apocalypse Nuts said:

Probably right.  But why do we even need to go here in our conversations? I mean,  things are going so friggin’ nicely right now why mess with the mojo?

Lest we all forget all-too-recent history of our beloved Bills organization.  
In other words,  why stir stuff up just for the sake of stirring stuff up?

 

 You all might benefit from adding this song to your playlists.  Certainly helps me chill and keep things in perspective.  And if you know me, you will definitely agree that  I can use all of that I can get:

 

 

 

 

Ha I think these two are both here for the long haul. To be clear. 

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think that anyone said that we couldn’t use a WR.  We NEEDED a CB and took one.  Note that not many CBs were picked last night after Booth and Gordon went early - people touting Tariq Woolen and McCollum as 2nd round options were wishful thinking trying to rationalize not filling the glaring need at CB.

 

I’m not a huge fan of the Cook pick, but he does a lot of what someone like Sky Moore would have done had they taken him. Cook is listed at RB, but his value is as a receiver.  
 

By late round 3, there were few WRs of value left after the Cowboys nabbed Tolbert.  I’m really struggling to see what they like about Bernard, but who was the WR that they could have taken there?

 

For a draft where ther was supposed to be great value in the middle rounds, It sure didn’t feel like that when looking at available players at the Bills’ picks.

The draft could not have played out any worse for us if we wanted to stand pat and take a WR.   Agreed.  
 

We could have moved up in RD2 or RD3 to get someone, but I’m on board with the James Cook pick.  
 

Hoping we get someone early today to be that outside WR3 or a Calvin Austin to give us more speed. 
 

We could also still sign someone, especially if the drafting of Bernard leads to the release of Matakevich. 
 

Kumerow is fine for WR6, but Stevenson showed us nothing as a rookie and Hodgins has been in witness protection since we drafted him.  

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, RangerDave said:

Does this mean then that Beane cannot get fired without McDermott also getting fired?  What would Beane's performance measures be, if he is not responsible for the drafting of players?  Does McD also tell him which FAs to sign and which of our own players do we re-sign?  Who determines length and size of contracts?

 

I am not disagreeing with you, I am just curious.

 

I think McDermott could out survive Beane. I don't think Beane could outsurvive McDermott. The reality however is that these guys are tied at the hip.

[davefan66]

1 hour ago, Governor said:

Good post! 
 

it feels like we missed on some good value at safety yesterday. I wonder what the plan is.

Based on the age of our starting duo, I was on board with grabbing some depth.  Listening to local radio yesterday, seems our FO is pretty high on out backups and PS safety depth.

 

 

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think McDermott could out survive Beane. I don't think Beane could outsurvive McDermott. The reality however is that these guys are tied at the hip.

McDermott was here before and approved Beane, that’s all we need to know when wondering who is the one with more control

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

The draft could not have played out any worse for us if we wanted to stand pat and take a WR.   Agreed.  
 

We could have moved up in RD2 or RD3 to get someone, but I’m on board with the James Cook pick.  
 

Hoping we get someone early today to be that outside WR3 or a Calvin Austin to give us more speed. 
 

We could also still sign someone, especially if the drafting of Bernard leads to the release of Matakevich. 
 

Kumerow is fine for WR6, but Stevenson showed us nothing as a rookie and Hodgins has been in witness protection since we drafted him.  

Bo Melton, WR, Rutgers and Isaiah Likely, TE, Coastal Carolina are two fellas I am hoping for. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

4 hours ago, BTB said:

Good insights on lack of premium picks used on WR…especially compared to RB. 

Can't resist high defensive picks

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Cash said:

Yeah, the two wildcards that none of us have any clue about are Stevenson and Hodgins. Hodgins has played so little, he plausibly might be one of the first cuts in training camp, or easily could wind up the top backup outside. I loved Stevenson coming out of the draft last year, and thought he showed a lot of promise. Some dumb rookie mistakes to be sure, but those are learning opportunities. He could e primed for a big jump this year. Or not! Without insider access, we have no way of predicting.

 

Honest question:  What has Stevenson done that you feel showed a lot of promise?

 

Hodgins.  There seems to be a lot of Hodgins love on the board.  In general, we as fans seem to love our 6th and 7th rounders who we've barely seen on the field (Sweeney). 

The bottom lines are:

1)  Hodgins is going into his 3rd season, and has seen four (4) snaps in one game.  That's not promising.

2) Fundamentally, Hodgins would be no higher than the #5 WR behind Diggs, Davis, Crowder, and McKenzie. 

The #5 WR MUST play teams.  Has Hodgins ever played teams?  In College?  In Preseason? 

 

That's why Kumerow is on the roster - not because he's a great or even a good WR, but because he can really play teams.

 

[SCBills]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Bo Melton, WR, Rutgers and Isaiah Likely, TE, Coastal Carolina are two fellas I am hoping for. 

Watched Coastal twice this past year and Likely jumped off the screen both times.  

[K-9]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Crazy to think a SB favorite is one Diggs or Davis injury away from Jake ducking Kumerow starting. 😅

Oh FFS, what contender isn’t an injury away from key players and having to play lesser ones?
 

Your Mr. Yuck schtick is old. We all know you’ll find a way to crap on anything this team does or doesn’t do. There isn’t a can of RAID big enough for the bug up your ass. 
 

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

The Bills were in a difficult situation in all the three rounds when there was a run on WRs right before them that pretty much took away any chance on them to get a WR.  I am sure if Moore, Pickens etc were on the board at our pick, we would have selected them. 

 

Additionally, the Bills have already picked McKenzie and Crowder in FA....so they were not going to invest a high pick on WR unless they fell to their draft position.

Sorry I don't buy it. They just don't invest draft capital in the offense. 

[davefan66]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Honest question:  What has Stevenson done that you feel showed a lot of promise?

 

Hodgins.  There seems to be a lot of Hodgins love on the board.  In general, we as fans seem to love our 6th and 7th rounders who we've barely seen on the field (Sweeney). 

The bottom lines are:

1)  Hodgins is going into his 3rd season, and has seen four (4) snaps in one game.  That's not promising.

2) Fundamentally, Hodgins would be no higher than the #5 WR behind Diggs, Davis, Crowder, and McKenzie. 

The #5 WR MUST play teams.  Has Hodgins ever played teams?  In College?  In Preseason? 

 

That's why Kumerow is on the roster - not because he's a great or even a good WR, but because he can really play teams.

 

Not sold on Hodgkin.  Then again, what body of work does he have at the pro level to judge him?

 

Kumerow does play ST and it helps him secure a roster spot.  5th WR is good for him.

 

McKenzie is an outlier for me.  Is he really as good as he played in the Pats game?  I hope so.  Would like to see more of him.

 

I feel WR needs to be addressed via the draft, if the player isn’t a complete reach.  Problem with the new WR salaries is those 2nd level WR’s with lower contracts will be in demand.  Grabbing a FA WR may not be as easy as it was.  
 

I do feel we need to draft someone.  May be too late this year to grab a meaningful guy especially if we stick to the 5th round.  I’m concerned Gabe Davis may be tough to keep if he keeps getting better, which he should.  Dude will command a pretty big contract in 2 years.

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

Sorry I don't buy it. They just don't invest draft capital in the offense. 

 

Yea feels to me as if they were only going to pick a WR if one fell to them as clear BPA. They were not going to do anything to make it happen in the way they did for corner in round 1. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea feels to me as if they were only going to pick a WR if one fell to them as clear BPA. They were not going to do anything to make it happen in the way they did for corner in round 1. 

It's their trend. How many first rounders spent on offense under mcbeane?

[No_Matter_What]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea feels to me as if they were only going to pick a WR if one fell to them as clear BPA. They were not going to do anything to make it happen in the way they did for corner in round 1. 

Agreed. And that to me sounds like a bad decision given the state of our roster.

[Cash]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Honest question:  What has Stevenson done that you feel showed a lot of promise?

 

Hodgins.  There seems to be a lot of Hodgins love on the board.  In general, we as fans seem to love our 6th and 7th rounders who we've barely seen on the field (Sweeney). 

The bottom lines are:

1)  Hodgins is going into his 3rd season, and has seen four (4) snaps in one game.  That's not promising.

2) Fundamentally, Hodgins would be no higher than the #5 WR behind Diggs, Davis, Crowder, and McKenzie. 

The #5 WR MUST play teams.  Has Hodgins ever played teams?  In College?  In Preseason? 

 

That's why Kumerow is on the roster - not because he's a great or even a good WR, but because he can really play teams.

 

Stevenson: Legit NFL acceleration, top speed, and ability to cut at speed. Everything else, I don’t have enough info to evaluate. The Bills’ WR coach and OC and HC hopefully do, though. How did he do last year in practice at picking up route running? Learning the playbook? Accepting feedback from coaches when he makes a mistake, and working on improving? When they do film study, does he pay attention? Further, does he actually get what they’re showing him, or do his eyes kind of glaze over?  Etc, etc. That’s the kind of stuff that makes the difference between a guy who develops vs a guy who never improves beyond his rookie year. I have zero visibility to any of it, so it could be amazing, terrible, or anywhere in between. If it’s decent or better, I have confidence in this coaching staff to get real improvements out of him. If not, well those are the breaks. 
 

Hodgins: Everything above applies to him as well, with the difference that his positives are size and contested catch ability. I fully expect him to be cut this year, because I tend to think if he had something, he would’ve shown it by now, and at least earned some public praise from McD or Daboll. But since Hodgins is such an unknown, there’s still a reasonable chance that he’s just had bad injury luck, combo’d with better players above him on the depth chart and not being on ST. As an outsider, I put that chance at like 10%. But the Bills should have a much better read on it - they probably think it’s either 0.1% or >50% with the info they have. Hodgins is probably more of a known quantity for the Bills than Stevenson, because they have a much better idea about how Hodgins handles the off-season. 
 

Anyway, I’m not counting on anything from either of those guys. But as long as the Bills don’t acquire anyone new, I’ll hold out hope that the Bills think either (or both!) can succeed if given the opportunity. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Two. 5 on defense.

Exactly. They just don't value it.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Im not overlooking it.. I don’t know that the Chiefs will be even close to as dynamic as they’ve been with Hill.  He’s that special.  
 

What I’m saying is that we have posters saying we don’t need a WR, when we have two legitimate outside WR’s.  
 

The Chiefs have MVS, Hardman and Juju as their starters, then still went out and got Mahomes Skyy Moore.  
 

We have Diggs, Davis and Crowder… a better 3-wide than the Chiefs, but after them we have a gadget/slot in McKenzie and that’s really it. 

 

What I am saying is the Chiefs went into the draft with 6 total picks day 1 and 2. Bills had 3. If the Chiefs only had three picks like the Bills they may not have taken a WR. We don't know what the Bills would have done with double the picks on day 1 and 2.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, Cash said:

Good post and well-written, even though I don’t really agree. I’ll respond point by point:

 

1. You have a point, but it think you go too far. By this logic, Tom Brady in the 4th would’ve been a bad pick. That’s obviously nonsensical, so therefore there’s an issue with the logic. The fact is, it’s unknowable where Bernard would’ve gone if the Bills didn’t pick him. The Bills clearly disagreed with the consensus. If they were the ONLY team to disagree, then it was indeed a bad value pick. But if even one other team also disagreed, it might’ve been the only spot they could get Bernard. Now, they still need him to pan out for it to be a good pick. 
 

2. I mostly agree here, except that I think LB depth is about equally important. We had basically nothing behind our 2 starters prior to last night. 
 

3. I think you were just mad at this point, because “go draft another Milano in the 5th” is basically saying, “Hey, you won the lottery a couple years ago - why not just win it again?” I’m guessing they think the dropoff at LB was pretty steep after Bernard, but the dropoff is pretty shallow at other needed positions. Maybe they can get a G/C in the 5th who’s almost as good as Parham, but Bernard was the last LB in the draft that they thought could step in and start if Edmunds or Milano got hurt? Beane said that Bernard could play both spots and would bounce around. 
 

Go Bills!

I love how you said that my post was good and well-written and then proceeded to disagree mostly and eventually calling me mad  But don't take me wrong I feel sort of the same - I respect your post a lot but disagree to a certain point.

 

As for 1, I really do think that every time you deviate from the consensus too much you already lost. Yeah you might hit from time to time, but you miss more often than not and overall you lose. You just don't hit nearly enough to justify deviation (i.e. thinking you are smarter than others). Granted, I don't have data to back this up, but I think it is common sense and quick look at 1st round deviations in last 4 years says a lot (there was a chart posted here couple days ago).

 

Look at what Ravens just did. Up until now they chose 6 playes. ALL of them were taken lower (or much lower) than consensus. Now that is how you pick value. Hamilton at 14, Linderbaum at 25, Ojabo at 45, Travis Jones at 76, Faalele at 110, Armour-Davis at 119. I have no doubt that this is much better way to build the team. I would even go so far to say that even if you ALWAYS randomly choose the one of the 5 highest nonQB guys on the consensus board instead of making your own deviation pick, you build a better team. In Bills case these guys were (on my consolidated board) Winfrey, Chenall, Tindall, Parnham, Cross. I will surely watch them

 

Now one thing I might overestimate is the actual deviation. We picked him at 89, and he might have been around 120. That I can live with that. If he was 140 it just gets worse and worse.

 

As for 3, I am not mad. Just dissapointed. They apparently think in lines of what you wrote. But that still screams backup. I can hardly imagine a scenario in which it was impossible to find a G who could be starter by next year. Or OT who could become NFL G.

 

Anyway, hopefully they hit the pick and they keep on hitting today.

 

 

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I'm still not sure  we can handle Cover 2 as well as we need to without Josh running

 

That's what James Cook was drafted for. Last year Allen was dumping the ball off to Singletary when defenses dropped back. Cook is much more dynamic in that role.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's what James Cook was drafted for. Last year Allen was dumping the ball off to Singletary when defenses dropped back. Cook is much more dynamic in that role.

 

Good point. Those dump offs were a thing of beauty too last year once Daboll and Allen figured out how to use them.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

We have Diggs, Davis and Crowder… a better 3-wide than the Chiefs, but after them we have a gadget/slot in McKenzie and that’s really it.

 

Diggs

Davis

Crowder

McKenzie

Knox

Howard

Cook

 

That's a really good group of pass catchers, three of which were just added this offseason. I'm all for adding another WR. But it's rare to have the luxury of three starting caliber outside WRs and that isn’t the only position catching passes.

[KDIGGZ]

1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Crossing my fingers for more safety depth today!!! 

Bills have 2 backup safeties on the roster they like already. I don't think it's a need, especially this late in the draft

[K-9]

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Crossing my fingers for more safety depth today!!!