Bills FA so far (using Sal C. tables)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Sal C made a handy-dandy color coded spreadsheet of the roster:

 

Another way of looking at it, broken down adds/losses position by position:

 

 

 

So for example, he doesn't include Bates or Boettger as OG, Sanders or Beasley at WR, nor does he include Hughes, Addison, or Obada as DE lost in FA.

 

Still a useful way of looking at it, I think.

 

Either way, I think the big gaping hole is at CB.  Tre' is great if he comes back at the same level, but at minimum we need another starter who is faster and able to play some man and recover if he's beaten off the line.  And we need depth.

 

Overall, it seems as though Beane's priority was to re-vamp the DL and he succeeded.

Offensive skill positions may be at least a "push"

OL is still a work in progress.

CB is a gap

 

[Sierra Foothills]

Thanks for posting... great stuff from Sal.

 

With Waddle and Hill both in Miami, yes the Bills had better strengthen themselves at CB.

[John from Riverside]

Corner standing out like a big neon sign

[YoloinOhio]

Can add efe Obada to lost column 

[JDubya76]

Yeah scumbag Commanders signed Obada

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Joe B take from the Athletic [paywall, trial available]

https://theathletic.com/3202455/2022/03/23/bills-free-agency-reset-von-millers-decision-how-jamison-crowder-and-duke-johnson-fit-in-plus-draft-needs/

 

Quote

How do Jamison Crowder and Duke Johnson fit in?

After the Bills missed out on running back J.D. McKissic, they had to reorganize what they wanted to do for the offense in free agency. McKissic likely would have been a hybrid running back and receiver and an every-week contributor based on the contract. Instead, the Bills used some of the cap space saved from the McKissic deal to pepper their defensive line with five new additions, and now the team has Miller, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson to show for it. That still left a void on their depth chart with playmaking positions, so the Bills made a couple of small strikes with wide receiver Jamison Crowder and running back Duke Johnson. They each signed a one-year deal, likely hoping a season in a prolific offense will boost their free-agent value in 2023. Crowder and Johnson likely hold different values in the Bills offense where things stand now.

 

I don't quite see the "used cap space saved from McKissic on defensive line" point - I think that's in Joe B's head, or more properly just his way of conceptualizing.  To me it's more like they used the money they could have used to re-up some of their guys.

 

The point is, the Bills totally reworked their DL.  After last season where they seemed to take the position they could upgrade with draft picks and Lotulelei's return, this season their strategy was pretty much to burn it down and start over.  They clearly *could* have  brought back Phillips and Butler, given what they signed for.  They preferred Jones and Settle, then Phillips and Lawson.

 

On the offensive adds (which I think of as additions after the $6.1M saved when Cole Beasley was cut):

Quote

Crowder is a longtime productive slot receiver, most recently with the New York Jets. After releasing Cole Beasley last week, the Bills needed another slot receiver. Crowder is entering his age-29 season and can still be a productive player. In 2021, he put together a 51-catch season on a pretty heinous offense, and he played in only 12 games. His shifty movements and understanding of how to find a defense’s weak spot will likely make him an immediate game-day contributor. The only question is, how much will he be on the field, given that the team also re-signed Isaiah McKenzie?

 

Joe B argues he is more likely a Beas replacement with McKenzie in a backup role.  He also argues that Johnson will be a Breida substitute rather than an "every week player:

Quote

Although Johnson has been a productive pass-catching back, this signing feels closer to the T.J. Yeldon and Matt Breida mold than what the Bills were trying to acquire in McKissic. Johnson’s contract is similar to Breida’s last year. Johnson signed a veteran minimum deal, and with under $400,000 guaranteed, the Bills can easily move on from it this summer if he doesn’t earn a spot. Johnson, who turns 29 in September, is most likely there as insurance if the Bills don’t add a pass-catching back in the draft with a chance to push Zack Moss for a game-day role. If the Bills don’t draft a running back, it would be fair to expect Johnson to have a spike week once in a while like Yeldon and Breida, but the team likely hopes Moss takes a step forward and Johnson remains a game-day inactive.

 

[1ManRaid]

Check the list again, he did include Beasley as he was released outright, not just a pending FA.

[turftoe]

How about comp picks?  Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, and Roger Saffold don't count since they were released by their former clubs. Also,  Keenum doesn't count since he was acquired in a trade. Gillan, Webb, and A. Williams do not count since they were futures deals from the practice squad. Klein, D. Williams, Feliciano, Star, and Beasley were all cuts.

Correct me if I'm wrong but my tally so far:

Gains = 9

Losses = 5

 

Probably no comp picks next year.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Corner standing out like a big neon sign

Likely our first pick in the draft, jmo…,

 

must control the AFCE first and foremost,

[White Linen]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Thanks for posting... great stuff from Sal.

 

With Waddle and Hill both in Miami, yes the Bills had better strengthen themselves at CB.

 

They did.   They signed Von Miller. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Sal C made a handy-dandy color coded spreadsheet of the roster:

 

Another way of looking at it, broken down adds/losses position by position:

 

 

 

So for example, he doesn't include Bates or Boettger as OG, Sanders or Beasley at WR, nor does he include Hughes, Addison, or Obada as DE lost in FA.

 

Still a useful way of looking at it, I think.

 

Either way, I think the big gaping hole is at CB.  Tre' is great if he comes back at the same level, but at minimum we need another starter who is faster and able to play some man and recover if he's beaten off the line.  And we need depth.

 

Overall, it seems as though Beane's priority was to re-vamp the DL and he succeeded.

Offensive skill positions may be at least a "push"

OL is still a work in progress.

CB is a gap

 

Thanks for those breakdowns.  Von Miller is obviously the huge addition - and the only change that makes a huge difference.  The other moves offset each other.  There were some modest gains at several positions which are offset by the loss of Wallace.  Again, Miller is a huge upgrade and improves the team greatly.  Obviously further improvement can still happen in FA and the draft.

[ChevyVanMiller]

 

39 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Thanks for those breakdowns.  Von Miller is obviously the huge addition - and the only change that makes a huge difference.  The other moves offset each other.  There were some modest gains at several positions which are offset by the loss of Wallace.  Again, Miller is a huge upgrade and improves the team greatly.  Obviously further improvement can still happen in FA and the draft.

I think Jones and Settle will prove to be huge upgrades over Star and Vernon Butler. 
 

I expect the Bills D-line to be a nightmare for other teams to play against next year.

[BarleyNY]

20 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

 

I think Jones and Settle will prove to be huge upgrades over Star and Vernon Butler. 
 

I expect the Bills D-line to be a nightmare for other teams to play against next year.

I’m looking at Harrison Phillips and Butler being swapped out for Jones and Settle.  Harrison washes with Jones and Settle is an upgrade over anyone else we had at DT.  It’s definitely a gain at DT3.  That’s offset by the loss at CB2. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Thanks for those breakdowns.  Von Miller is obviously the huge addition - and the only change that makes a huge difference.  The other moves offset each other.  There were some modest gains at several positions which are offset by the loss of Wallace.  Again, Miller is a huge upgrade and improves the team greatly.  Obviously further improvement can still happen in FA and the draft.

 

IMO, the Bills believe that the changes at DT represent upgrades

 

Last year:

1TDT:

Star Lotulelei

Harrison Phillips

3TDT:

Ed Oliver

Vernon Butler

(Efe Obada/Boogie Basham - rotate inside or outside)

 

This season:

1TDT:

Daquon Jones

Tim Settle

3TDT:

Ed Oliver

Jordan Phillips

(Tim Settle - able to play both 1T and 3T)

(Boogie Basham - rotate inside or outside)

 

When we look at the contracts, it's very clear that the Bills could have re-signed Harrison Phllips and Butler (and of course, they had Lotulelei under contract) for what was spent on Jones, Settle, and Jordan Phillips.

 

I don't think the Bills believe it is an offset there.

 

Of course, Time Will Tell.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m looking at Harrison Phillips and Butler being swapped out for Jones and Settle.  Harrison washes with Jones and Settle is an upgrade over anyone else we had at DT.  It’s definitely a gain at DT3.  That’s offset by the loss at CB2. 

 

Things could have changed. but if the Bills aren't looking at Settle as their 1TDT I don't know who else they have on the roster who can play that position.

As of 2019, that guy was NOT Jordan Phillips.

 

I think Jordan Phillips is the swap for Vernon Butler, and given the letdown between 2019 and 2020/2021 on DL, it seemed like a downgrade.

 

Now again, things could have changed.  Maybe the Bills had a heart-to-heart with Big J9797 and he's full go to accept that role now.

 

I don't think Harrison "washes" with Jones.  I think Harrison is *capable* of playing on the same level as Jones, but the question is "can he sustain playing at that level for an entire season and not get injured?" and over the last 3 seasons the answer to that question has been "No".    It's possible Phillips will stay healthier in a different scheme with a different ask, but playing 1TDT "to our standard" on the Bills seems to be a writing a check that his body can't cash.

 

 

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

When we look at the contracts, it's very clear that the Bills could have re-signed Harrison Phllips and Butler (and of course, they had Lotulelei under contract) for what was spent on Jones, Settle, and Jordan Phillips.

 

Yes, and if you listen to Beane's public comments, he made it very clear that although the Bills got the kind of pressure they wanted last season, they didn't have "finishers," meaning guys who would get the sacks.  Clearly, Miller is a finisher, and we know Phillips is.  Phillips was better when he was with the Bills than any 3T the Bills had last season.  And, as you say, Phillips obviously wasn't their first choice.  They clearly think they got better, much better. 

 

And he repeatedly said that one reason they wanted Miller was that he likes teaching the young players, and they think he will make the three young DEs better.    

 

I think the Dline has been upgraded significantly.    Interestingly, however, at least in Miami, it would seem that the NFL is shifting toward the quick-release game.  If that's a true trend, then the Bills looking for finishers puts them behind the curve, because no one finishes when the QB throws it in 2.2 seconds.  

 

Personally, I think the quick passing game has limitations.   I like McDermott's approach, which is to attack as much of the field as possible.  That means you need a guy with a big arm, and that's not Tua.  

[eball]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Overall, it seems as though Beane's priority was to re-vamp the DL and he succeeded.

 

Somewhere in the "Von Miller's First 24 Hours" video you hear Beane saying exactly that to Von.

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Thanks for posting... great stuff from Sal.

 

With Waddle and Hill both in Miami, yes the Bills had better strengthen themselves at CB.

 

3 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Corner standing out like a big neon sign

 

2 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Or just out score them with a dynamic QB and offense… load up on offense in the draft.

 

2 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

They did.   They signed Von Miller. 

 

Let's remember this conversation and rewind to it later when the smoke has cleared.

[Bad Things]

Thanks for this, Hapless.

 

I just back into civilization from a week backpacking and can't believe all the action.  When I went into the bush, people were complaining that Beane was sitting on his hands.

Now, I see we have Von Miller!

 

Let's go Buffalo!

[unbillievable]

Dane Jackson looked  good enough last year to hold onto CB2. Neal and McCloud also looked decent.

 

The Bills just need depth at LB, OL, and CB, But they have solid starters at every position except Punter.

I'm expecting the bills to draft a Punter, no later than the 5th, but could be 3rd/4th.

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, unbillievable said:

Dane Jackson looked  good enough last year to hold onto CB2. Neal and McCloud also looked decent.

 

The Bills just need depth at LB, OL, and CB, But they have solid starters at every position except Punter.

I'm expecting the bills to draft a Punter, no later than the 5th, but could be 3rd/4th.

 

 

 

I like really having Jackson on the team as our 4th CB.  I’m also perfectly good with him starting while Tre gets healthy, but I don’t want to go into the season with him as our CB2 behind Tre. IMO the Bills need someone in front of him, not behind him. 

[GolfandBills]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m looking at Harrison Phillips and Butler being swapped out for Jones and Settle.  Harrison washes with Jones and Settle is an upgrade over anyone else we had at DT.  It’s definitely a gain at DT3.  That’s offset by the loss at CB2. 

Jones is better than Phillips 

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Jones is better than Phillips 

Based on what?   Contracts don’t paint that picture.  AAV is $7M vs $6.5M, but Phillips gets an extra year and more guaranteed money.  That is very even.  I don’t see either in the top 100 on any free agent list.  Phillips is better against the run than Jones while Jones is a bit more balanced.  If it’s not a push, it’s very close.

[White Linen]

16 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

 

 

Let's remember this conversation and rewind to it later when the smoke has cleared.

 

The conversation is in the present though.  Right now signing Miller has strengthened the CB's.  When they sign one and/or draft one is a separate conversation for that time.  Then the results of those decisions is another one.  

[Thurman#1]

On 3/24/2022 at 6:25 AM, Shaw66 said:

Yes, and if you listen to Beane's public comments, he made it very clear that although the Bills got the kind of pressure they wanted last season, they didn't have "finishers," meaning guys who would get the sacks.  Clearly, Miller is a finisher, and we know Phillips is.  Phillips was better when he was with the Bills than any 3T the Bills had last season.  And, as you say, Phillips obviously wasn't their first choice.  They clearly think they got better, much better. 

 

And he repeatedly said that one reason they wanted Miller was that he likes teaching the young players, and they think he will make the three young DEs better.    

 

I think the Dline has been upgraded significantly.    Interestingly, however, at least in Miami, it would seem that the NFL is shifting toward the quick-release game.  If that's a true trend, then the Bills looking for finishers puts them behind the curve, because no one finishes when the QB throws it in 2.2 seconds.  

 

Personally, I think the quick passing game has limitations.   I like McDermott's approach, which is to attack as much of the field as possible.  That means you need a guy with a big arm, and that's not Tua.  

 

 

Agree with about all of this. 

 

Maybe all of it, because with two Phillipses, J. and H., all of this discussion has become more confusing.

 

But I'm less hopeful about J. Phillips than many here. He had a ton of sacks that one year, more than he has had before or since. I tend towards thinking it's just statistical variance more than a perfect scheme fit. He had one and three-quarters years here. 

 

2018 BUF 12 games 36% snaps 268 snaps ... 0 sacks

2019 16 games 52% snaps 543 snaps ... 9.5 sacks

 

My best guess is/was statistical variance. Could be wrong, of course. I hope so.

 

Sorry for the long delay on this reply. I had surgery for a smashed wrist bone. Just out of hosp, but looks good. Still typing one-handed. Just seeing this thread again.

 

 

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Agree with about all of this. 

 

Maybe all of it, because with two Phillipses, J. and H., all of this discussion has become more confusing.

 

But I'm less hopeful about J. Phillips than many here. He had a ton of sacks that one year, more than he has had before or since. I tend towards thinking it's just statistical variance more than a perfect scheme fit. He had one and three-quarters years here. 

 

2018 BUF 12 games 36% snaps 268 snaps ... 0 sacks

2019 16 games 52% snaps 543 snaps ... 9.5 sacks

 

My best guess is/was statistical variance. Could be wrong, of course. I hope so.

 

Sorry for the long delay on this reply. I had surgery for a smashed wrist bone. Just out of hosp, but looks good. Still typing one-handed. Just seeing this thread again.

 

 

Thurm!   Sorry to hear about your problem   For a man who loves his keyboard, that's really tough.   I hope it's going okay.  

 

I'll tell you that I didn't look at Jordan Philips' stats, and I haven't seen him play, except when he happened to be matched up with the Bills.  But I have relatively high hopes for him (even knowing that he could get cut coming out of preseason).  Here's why:

 

It's all about the process.   When he left, the Bills wanted him back and he wanted to be back, but they couldn't make the money work.  That tells me he bought into the process, both from his point of view and the Bills.   So, I think those 9.5 sacks were less likely to be aberrational than you might think.   I think Philips chased the payday, something which neither McDermott nor I begrudge him.  But now he's been paid something in the neighborhood of $20 million playing pro football, and if he's been smart about it, he has $5-$10 million in the bank.  He's set for life.  

 

I'm guessing he actually believes that Buffalo is the place where he can play the best football of his life (that's actually been true, so far in his career), and I think it's likely that he's decided that's what he wants and needs now.  He seems not to have been holding out for top dollar.  And he seems so committed to the Bills that he recruited Shaq, too.  

 

Now, maybe his best seasons are behind, and maybe that one season was aberrational, but I think not.   I think it's much more likely that Beane and McDermott, knowing first hand what he can do, looked at the film of his last few seasons and concluded that teams weren't putting Phillips in positions to get the best out of him, and they know they can.  I think it's likely that in 2022 he's going to be like what he was in 2019 - a guy who gives the Bills serious production and who will present a problem for the Bills when the time comes around to re-signing him.  Chances are by then, given a second chance to consider staying or going, Phillips will understand that staying at a lower salary than he might get elsewhere is the better choice.   

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

'll tell you that I didn't look at Jordan Philips' stats, and I haven't seen him play, except when he happened to be matched up with the Bills.  But I have relatively high hopes for him (even knowing that he could get cut coming out of preseason).  Here's why:

 

It's all about the process.   When he left, the Bills wanted him back and he wanted to be back, but they couldn't make the money work.  That tells me he bought into the process, both from his point of view and the Bills.   So, I think those 9.5 sacks were less likely to be aberrational than you might think.   I think Philips chased the payday, something which neither McDermott nor I begrudge him.  But now he's been paid something in the neighborhood of $20 million playing pro football, and if he's been smart about it, he has $5-$10 million in the bank.  He's set for life.  

 

I'm guessing he actually believes that Buffalo is the place where he can play the best football of his life (that's actually been true, so far in his career), and I think it's likely that he's decided that's what he wants and needs now.  He seems not to have been holding out for top dollar.  And he seems so committed to the Bills that he recruited Shaq, too.  

 

Jordan Philips played out of position a lot which helped him getting sacks and stats for big contract but it left holes also which needed to be filled by others and sometimes resulted in big plays through those holes.  I know some like that for they do not like Bills' scheme but I hope this is addressed adjust scheme where it makes sense and adjusting Jordan when it doesn't.