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Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year


Hapless Bills Fan

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2 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Waller is in elite group Gki maybe Schultz solid but limited explosive plays, Fant potential but bit disappointing so far.. Ertz good but on back end.. so again firmly in top ten. My answer was to the original poster ? And I’ve answered that as stated. He’s exactly what Bills have lacked for many years and is viewed as up and coming current top 10 TE. 

Fmuth is not as good as Knox and it’s not close 

 
what is Knox’s explosive play % per snap?

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19 minutes ago, RaoulDuke79 said:

You might be right. I'm trying to rattle off my top 10 list, but I'm have frozen, a bit tipsy and still giddy over the Chiefs loss. Kelce, Andrews, Kittle are the first that come to mind, then it get murky.

Pitts, Waller, Schultz, Goedert, Gronkowski, Ertz, Gisecki off top of head are better TEs

 

Knox is on the edge, borderline top10 guy there w the Hockensens and Fants of the world imo

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Er….in general TEs have a higher catch % than WR.  That’s the reason Knox is 28th in catch percentage amoung TE with a catch % of 69% that would be excellent for a WR.

 

the OP put out a bunch of comparisons to other TE.  The only measurable I could find by which he’s top 10 is TDs.  What are your measurables or metrics to argue he’s top-10?


He’s not just top 10 in TD’s, he’s tied for the league lead.  
 

Given the amount of mouths to feed on our offense, that seems - to me - to lessen his targets in the field of play, so the fact he’s a big end zone target for us is a big deal.  
 

Someone like Dallas Goedert is much more of a focal point.   And if we’re worried about drops, he had a brutal one in their playoff game. 

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1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 
what is Knox’s explosive play % per snap?

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 

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1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 

 

Objectively, unless you cherry pick your statistics and put on homer glasses, Knox appears to slot in about 13-15th among TE

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6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

 

Long story, short, not enough to get a new deal this offseason. Maybe next offseason. 

 

I think skill positions only get big paydays when they're top 15 guys. Otherwise, the contract has to make a lot of sense. You should have guys in the pipeline that can replace at least some of their production allowing to maybe sign a more reasonably priced upgrade at another position. 

 

I also stand by my "You have to succeed for as many years as you failed". Let's see what another offseason of him being focused does..

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3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Wow as previously stated it’s not all about the stats. I could care less. What part are you missing ? You mentioned te’s who are in the next group after the elite 4 or 5. He’s clearly in the next group.. ie top 10. Watch Schultz play who I like and runs and 4.8… then watch Knox. With a high TD total. If you don’t like him that’s fine. Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10. 


Ok, it’s  not all about the stats.

 

what’s 4.8?

 

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Man why are you so arrogant. You asked the ? answer it yourself I don’t care. 


You repeatedly mentioned explosiveness and compared Knox’s to several others.  I assumed you had some metric in mind to explain your conclusion.  Simple

 

 

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Pitts, Waller, Schultz, Goedert, Gronkowski, Ertz, Gisecki off top of head are better TEs

 

Knox is on the edge, borderline top10 guy there w the Hockensens and Fants of the world imo

 

Ertz is not really a tight end. He is a big slot. He plays in the slot nearly two thirds of his snaps and that is consistent over the last 5 years. And he couldn't block his dinner. He'd have been an interesting case if he had ever got the franchise tag stage thinking back to the Jimmy Graham situation in New Orleans a few years back.  Gesicki the same. He played fewer than 100 snaps as an inline tight end this year. He is a big slot. They are good big receivers. I don't really consider them tight ends. They only do half of the job. 

 

Agree with the other guys on your list and all of those are guys who play at least half their time as an inline tight end. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 it elevates him into the  Freiermuth range.  Except he did it in his rookie year. With only 2 drops

 

Good thing then that the Bills didn't waste taking him a round and a half earlier than they took Knox.  And this past season, Knox's production has been as good, if not better, than any TE drafted since 2019, outside of Pitts, who went 8th overall.

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10 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:


Ok, it’s  not all about the stats.

 

what’s 4.8?

 


You repeatedly mentioned explosiveness and compared Knox’s to several others.  I assumed you had some metric in mind to explain your conclusion.  Simple

 

 

The guy runs a 4.8 so he’s slow. Again. you chose to fall back only on stats. Others actually watch the guys play. Your the metrics guy. Simple is your inability that others may not follow your metrics as facts. 

 

I will take a combination of the data and watching the game and impact a player has. I don’t need your 100% metrics to establish an opinion. Again I’m answering the ? in the thread. Simple.. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Good thing then that the Bills didn't waste taking him a round and a half earlier than they took Knox.  And this past season, Knox's production has been as good, if not better, than any TE drafted since 2019, outside of Pitts, who went 8th overall.


Freiermuth was 2nd round, Knox 3rd.  Teams pick in each round where they pick.

 

And yes, I’m sure the Steelers are to this day bemoaning the fact that they “wasted” a 2nd round pick on a roomie TE who caught 60 passes 7 for TDS and 36 1st downs 500 yards against 2 drops

 

good point!

 

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1 hour ago, QLBillsFan said:

Yes would like to clean up the drops. Knox without a doubt a top 10 TE who is very explosive. Let’s get rid of him 😳🙄.. he made huge strides this year. And has excellent chemistry with JA. Well well above  mediocre. 

I don't think people want to get rid of him, but rather they don't want to pay him big money.... he's never had 50 catches or 600 yards you can't pay big money for that especially when he's been on a high powered offense. 

 

He has gotten better each year so maybe he really breaks out next year.  But as it stands now he's not worth large money he'll command.

 

He might be fit for a transition tag though since the question is the money. 

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1 minute ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

That’s something we can all agree on 

4 minutes ago, ArtVandalay said:

I don't think people want to get rid of him, but rather they don't want to pay him big money.... he's never had 50 catches or 600 yards you can't pay big money for that especially when he's been on a high powered offense. 

 

He has gotten better each year so maybe he really breaks out next year.  But as it stands now he's not worth large money he'll command.

 

He might be fit for a transition tag though since the question is the money. 

I’ve never debated about his contract. He’s valuable to this team and in particular the QB. So as I’ve stated let’s provide a fair contract for both parties. I’m assuming he’s open to that. With his upside and JA it will be good for this team. Seems logical. 

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12 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Freiermuth was 2nd round, Knox 3rd.  Teams pick in each round where they pick.

 

And yes, I’m sure the Steelers are to this day bemoaning the fact that they “wasted” a 2nd round pick on a roomie TE who caught 60 passes 7 for TDS and 36 1st downs 500 yards against 2 drops

 

good point!

 

Well, I'm sure they hope he proves to be more than a below average TE.  Considering where they picked him.

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5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

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25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Objectively, unless you cherry pick your statistics and put on homer glasses, Knox appears to slot in about 13-15th among TE

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

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6 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

That’s something we can all agree on 

I’ve never debated about his contract. He’s valuable to this team and in particular the QB. So as I’ve stated let’s provide a fair contract for both parties. I’m assuming he’s open to that. With his upside and JA it will be good for this team. Seems logical. 


this is a discussion about his contract and what it’s worth might be…

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

I mean there's a reason he's been a healthy scratch the back end of this season.

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1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

 

I make you right. He is in the 8-12 range. But I do chuck Ertz and Gesicki out so they are not counted in my numbers. Tight Ends who can't (or are not asked to) block at all are not tight ends. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Again with the stats .. it’s stats and eye. Easy for me to see him in the 8-12 range based on how i look at it. Others just look at data and that’s your perspective. And that’s fine. 

 

So if you “eyeball test” Knox and feel he’s top 10, that’s fine, your perogative.  I have “eyeball” opinions on various players myself, including Knox.  

 

My point is you said “ “Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10”.  

 

That kind of certainty/generalization typically needs to have support other than “my eyes”, unless you have chops as a professional scout or some such.  

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I make you right. He is in the 8-12 range. But I do chuck Ertz and Gesicki out so they are not counted in my numbers. Tight Ends who can't (or are not asked to) block at all are not tight ends. 

 

That’s a fair point.  Since I lack data on how much various TE were asked to block, I dodged the issue (and acknowledged that limitation in my OP)

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

Most guys who come out of BC are excellent blocking TEs he must be the exception 

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16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Desperately need a second te as Sweeney is pretty much just a blocker luckily draft and free agency are loaded with a plethora of options this year 

 

Sweeney saw his snap count plummet after the Jax game and was inactive 4 games at the end of the season, because he is in fact NOT a blocker. 

 

The Bills had hopes he would develop into a blocker - he has the size and frame for it - but 3 years in and that hasn’t happened.  So he got benched in favor of putting in Tommy Doyle when they wanted an extra blocker.

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That’s a fair point.  Since I lack data on how much various TE were asked to block, I dodged the issue (and acknowledged that limitation in my OP)

 

I put tight ends into 4 categories:

 

The do it all tight ends: the likes of Gronkowski, Waller and Kittle live here. Jason Witten in his prime too. 

 

The modern tight ends (i.e. they are primarily mismatch weapons but they can block and are asked to by their scheme): Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Shultz

 

The blocking tight ends (i.e. guys who are really not there to catch the ball): Lee Smith, Blake Jarwin, Noah Gray etc

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

I think Knox belongs in the "modern tight end" category but when I am ranking tight ends I am really looking at those first two groups. 

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So if you “eyeball test” Knox and feel he’s top 10, that’s fine, your perogative.  I have “eyeball” opinions on various players myself, including Knox.  

 

My point is you said “ “Any other objective fan be they Bills or other would slot him in the top 10”.  

 

That kind of certainty/generalization typically needs to have support other than “my eyes”, unless you have chops as a professional scout or some such.  

Eyes is a reference that he has to be accounted for. For example passing stats undervalue JA. Significant weather and wind will always do so with his passing stats.
 

That’s my point for Knox vs Schultz. Not a scout but yes watching the tape and not just combine numbers undervalue Schultz. But in game situations he’s good at what he does but clearly not as explosive as Knox. 

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I put tight ends into 4 categories:

 

The do it all tight ends: the likes of Gronkowski, Waller and Kittle live here. Jason Witten in his prime too. 

 

The modern tight ends (i.e. they are primarily mismatch weapons but they can block and are asked to by their scheme): Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Shultz

 

The blocking tight ends (i.e. guys who are really not there to catch the ball): Lee Smith, Blake Jarwin, Noah Gray etc

 

Big Slots (not really tight ends at all): Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry etc.

 

I think Knox belongs in the "modern tight end" category but when I am ranking tight ends I am really looking at those first two groups. 

Tyler Higbee needs to be included in your modern group. IMO, he is also better than Knox.

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1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

Eyes is a reference that he has to be accounted for. For example passing stats undervalue JA. Significant weather and wind will always do so with his passing stats.
 

That’s my point for Knox vs Schultz. Not a scout but yes watching the tape and not just combine numbers undervalue Schultz. But in game situations he’s good at what he does but clearly not as explosive as Knox. 

 

And I have no argument with any of that.  My point is if you want to call that “objective” or assert that “any other objective fan must agree”, you’re moving beyond what can truly be described as “objective”, and you’re trying to lay claim to a universality that just doesn’t belong to eyeball scouting.

 

 

4 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

He’s a top 10 TE in the league right now.

 

Kittle, Kelce, The raiders TE, Goonkowski, and the Atlanta TE are the only ones who are consistently better. 
 

His drops are rough though

 

And see, this is where relying on eyes and memory can let you down.  I don’t see how anyone could omit Andrews from an assessment of top TE right now, for example.

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20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

People say this all the time... Sweeney is NOT a blocker. He sucks at blocking. He was drafted as a high upside receiving tight end on the 7th round. He hasn't developed into that, he isn't very good, so people presume he must be a blocking tight end. He isn't. He is a terrible blocker. 

 

He shouldn't be in the league next year. 

Amen.  Sweeney is a bum.  Good riddance 🙏🏻 

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And I have no argument with any of that.  My point is if you want to call that “objective” or assert that “any other objective fan must agree”, you’re moving beyond what can truly be described as “objective”, and you’re trying to lay claim to a universality that just doesn’t belong to eyeball scouting.

 

 

That’s fine. I’ll give you that. Good points made by you and Mr Weo.. 

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