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538 analysis: Bills underperformed with schedule set up to dominate


beebe

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It did seem that way... It's been a weird season for sure. 

 

It's almost like they're falling victim to not getting as up for regular season games now that they've had a taste of the playoffs. 

 

Of course you can't do that and "nobody ever would" (officially) but it's probably human nature after a bunch of playoff runs to view most regular season games as just something to get through until the real games start. 

Edited by TheFunPolice
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3 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

Who cares.  It's about the next 5 games.   If they win the next 5 no one will care about their record during the season

Except those that bet the over win total!!!  Just hoping to get this push!

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1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

This year we lost 5 one possession games and were blown out once.

 

Last year we won 5 one possession games and lost one.

 

I don't think it is about not having what it takes to win those games. Sometimes the ball just won't bounce our way. 

 

Missed QB sneak - loss to titans

Drop on 2nd down, missed protection on 3rd - loss to Jags

Wind game missed FG and red zone ending - loss to patriots

Blocked punt making a 2 score game - loss to steelers

Missed PI call on Diggs - loss to TB

 

Literally some bounces, some calls, and some execution mistakes away from winning any of those games.  Allen puts you on the 2 yard line against Tenn, into jags territory, into the RZ twice against NE, and what should have been 1st and goal from the 1 against TB.  Teams know that this team can beat anyone, and there isn't some magic recipe that is going to shut buffalo down.  

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They 100% under preformed. The schedule was very easy this year and the team is going down to the wire in a must win game for the division. The biggest issue has been coaching. McDermott and Daboll have struggled massively at times this year. They aren’t in danger of going anywhere but they could and should be doing better with the talent on this roster. 

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18 minutes ago, 17islongenough said:

Who cares.  It's about the next 5 games.   If they win the next 5 no one will care about their record during the season

 

 

Right now it's a "who cares?" because they are still alive.

 

If they fail to at least reach the Super Bowl after such a feeble schedule of opponents and in a year when KC struggled early and the Bills beat them in KC..........the autopsy of the season will be unkind.

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33 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

This year we lost 5 one possession games and were blown out once.

 

Last year we won 5 one possession games and lost one.

 

I don't think it is about not having what it takes to win those games. Sometimes the ball just won't bounce our way. 

This is the ENTIRETY of what sports is all about.

 

And yet fans/media love to generate false narratives built around human nature.

 

"They had to learn how to win."

 

"They didn't want it badly enough."

 

"We weren't tough enough."


"We needed to come together as a team."

 

...and all this sort of total garbage!

 

 

Edited by Nextmanup
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17 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Missed QB sneak - loss to titans

Drop on 2nd down, missed protection on 3rd - loss to Jags

Wind game missed FG and red zone ending - loss to patriots

Blocked punt making a 2 score game - loss to steelers

Missed PI call on Diggs - loss to TB

 

Literally some bounces, some calls, and some execution mistakes away from winning any of those games.  Allen puts you on the 2 yard line against Tenn, into jags territory, into the RZ twice against NE, and what should have been 1st and goal from the 1 against TB.  Teams know that this team can beat anyone, and there isn't some magic recipe that is going to shut buffalo down.  

I agree with this. A few bounces, and 538 is talking about how the Bills 15 or even 16 wins don't amount to much. A few bounces against them, and Tampa Bay wouldn't even be in the playoffs. To be sure, losses and wins shape a team' character and subsequent performance. But to think less of the Bills because, essentially, Dawkins blew the block in the Titans game AND Allen slipped on the turf AND the refs didn't give them the first down on the previous Allen scramble... well, that's just dumb. It's more plausible to expect the Bills to run the table and dominate along the way. Except for the White injury, all the pieces are coming together for them at the right time. I wouldn't want to face this team right now. 

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28 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Except those that bet the over win total!!!  Just hoping to get this push!

I bet the Chargers over/unders.  I bet over 9 & have a push on that one & can win it if they win on Sunday so I'll be rooting big time for the Chargers vs the Raiders.  Then I got greedy because the odds were +190 and bet over 10.5 wins on LAC.  I lost that when they couldn't beat Houston.  The best I can do is limit my loses to 25% of the total I bet on the LAC since I bet more on over 10.5. 

 

I can still make money on my futures if the Bills win the AFC.  I bet them at +550.  If they win the AFC I will more than double my original future bet wagers.  

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I'd be curious what the 538 take was for last year, when the Bills were 5-0 in one score games, etc...   Let me guess.. "over performed" i would imagine.   IMO, seasons and games do not exist in isolation.   McBeanes have, are and will continue the process of building and maintaining a winning program, year over year over year.   The Division, Conference and SB titles will come as long as they stick to what they are doing.   IMO.   No chasing shiny objects and going into cap hell just to try and win one single title and then fall into years of mediocrity (the path Rams are perhaps taking?? ).   

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10 minutes ago, Bills fan since 87 said:

Make the playoffs (preferably by winning division) every year and take your shot.  Thats all I care about, get in every year and you have a chance.

Easier said than done though!  Especially when Bill Belichick lives in your division.

 

We are lucky the Jets have been irrelevant for a very long time, NE is in a transition period, and Miami is still struggling to find itself, even though they'e had a remarkable comeback this year.

 

We have to feast on seasons like this where the division is just waiting for us to claim it while we have them.

 

And we did last year and will this year too!
 

Once the playoffs start, it's a whole new world and you just have to win a handful of games and boom!  You're in the big dance.  

 

 

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