What prompted the change to our offense, and other questions?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Defenses have caught up to what we did last year and we haven't adjusted. It's the same thing happening to the Chiefs. We are too one dimensional to counter. The scheme that defenses are playing against us can traditionally be beat by running the ball but our offensive line can't win a 5 on 4 matchup and our RBs aren't explosive enough to take advantage of the few opportunities that are there. The next best counter is TE seam routes and we have been without Knox the past 2 weeks. We need a complete change in our offensive philosophy. WR crossing routes aren't going to work anymore, defenses are selling out to stop them and we have no change up.

Could be this…but the pass blocking has been so bad this year that it’s hard to tell. A lot of the chiefs ‘bad offensive line’ complaints are really just mahomes dancing around trying to make a play and his linemen having no idea where he’s gonna be. Our guys straight up couldn’t block this past Sunday. I don’t think the scheme run against us has to be beat by running the ball…it would certainly help…but the jags could just sit on all the intermediate routes because they knew we wouldn’t have enough time in the pocket to work the ball down the field. I honestly can’t believe we got over 100 yards of offense in that game…josh takes a lot of grief for his 3 bad turnovers as he should but there’s a very short list of guys that could’ve stepped in at qb and pulled a win off under those circumstances 

7 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Think Daboll adjusted too much by going shorter underneath game this week. Allen was late on lots of throws. When Allen watches the film he'll learn from this.  But understand Daboll reasoning to do so. Have them adjust to do that opens up different things. Teams are adjusting like you said. 

How could we have possibly taken deep shots? There were quite a few times where the jags rushed 4 and still had guys coming through untouched lol we’re all saying the offensive line was bad but we’re still underselling it…they were absolutely horrendous. One of the worst performances by any unit on a football team I’ve ever seen in my life. Jags could just jam up all the short stuff knowing we’d have zero time to throw unless we max protected and if we max protected there were so many guys in coverage that it’s tough to do anything. Luckily we’re getting a lot of our injured guys back 

Edited November 11, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[corta765]

Good read and I agree with what has been said. I do believe the offense will get it together to some capacity, I am not sure if it 100% back to last year but it will improve. Josh I am not worried about he had a bad day compounded by zero help.

 

Yards Per Pass made this point on twitter and I think there is more to this then what has been remotely said. Beasley this year looks a step behind compared to the prior two years where he literally never dropped a ball and was uncoverable. He looks just a bit slower/hasn't been able to break free like before and he has had quite a few drops in big situations that I just don't remember happening the last two years. The prior two years I really believe Josh's true help was always having Beasley around to catch literally anything at any time and being open. Whether scheme or gameplan it has not felt nearly the same this year. I have wondered if his injury is still lingering from last year beside his current rib issue. Either way YPP I think made a great point on this and it has not been brought up nearly enough.

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, Virgil said:

Like many of you, I am both frustrated and perplexed by our offensive performance this season.  While I understand the need to evolve schemes before the league catches up to you, I can't quite figure out when that happened to us.  We were able to move the ball just fine at the end of last season, were good against the Colts, played a good defense in windy conditions against the Ravens, and then puttered against the Chiefs.  In the Chiefs game, I don't know that they "figured us out" so much as the matchup wasn't in our favor and we just had the wrong plan.  More so, I think about the Ravens offense.  They dominate the regular season and flop in the playoffs.  I get needing to make a change for the playoffs and practicing that in parts of the season, but the Ravens usually stick with what works during the regular season for the past few years. 

 

So with that, why did we effectively change our scheme that was apparently working?  Here are my questions?

 

1 - With Gabe Davis leading us in Red Zone TDs last season, why is he no longer in those packages as much?  While I understand Sanders new role in the offense, red zone packages are typically different

 

2 - Do we have a runningback problem or an offensive line problem?  Additionally, where is the extra eligible blocking receiver?  Teams are rarely stacking the box against us, which means it's 5 vs 4 on the line.  If we bring in an additional OL as an eligible receiver, then it's 6 vs 4.  That should be more than enough to get decent yards on each run play.  However, what percentage of our run plays come from the shotgun versus Josh under center.  Are we too obvious when we call a rushing play?  Is it possible that both Motor and Moss suck, or is the offensive line that bad?  I mean, these are NFL talented players who can't win a 5 vs 4 matchup?  I argue that alone seems illogical.  With that, for me, I believe it is our lack of creative scheme.  I think about our rushing attack before and after Greg Roman.  The man had a system out of the shotgun that couldn't be touched and we torched the league in rushing.  Why is that not something we can somewhat emulate?

 

3 - Even with other teams playing two safeties deep, the deep crossing routes shouldn't be effected by this as much.  If the safety does shade over, then the seam down the middle should be free.  Josh rolling out and hitting someone deep on the sideline was a majority of our highlights last season, but I can't think of more than a few times we've hit that play or even tried.

 

4 - Is it me, or did we move the pocket with Josh more last season? 

 

5 - I understand that teams are more consistently double covering Diggs, but that typically doesn't take affect until he's more than 10 yards down field?  What happened to the quick stutter-step routes that got him going early in games that brought the safeties up?  Our best games are when we fed Diggs and Beasley early, forcing the defense to react, and then killed them deep with throws to Davis and whoever else. 

 

6 - While Sanders has made some great plays for us, it feels to be at the expense of the other receivers.  Is this intentional or is really just the only person getting open?

 

7 - Where the hell is the McKenzie sweep plays?  We would at least keep the defense on their guard with those plays and creep towards the LOS, but nothing this year.

 

8 - When Josh went off on the sidelines against the Dolphins, who was he yelling at?  It looked like he was targeting his offensive line.  Has that relationship soured a bit?  I'm not saying they are tanking in response, but the tension is real.  Josh has not looked relaxed all season.

 

That's all I got.  I'm as frustrated as Josh is and I equally see the articles about him not taking the check-downs, but I also believe there is more to it.  I don' t have answers, just wanted to put the thoughts out there and see if anyone had similar thoughts or answers.

 

1.  Knox I think has been the bigger factor of less red zone opportunities for Davis.  He has become more of a focal point down there.

 

2.  We have an OL problem and offensive scheme problem in terms of the run game.  We run way too much from gimmicky formations or off RPO's, all of which are slower to develop preventing the backs from hitting the hole harder and faster.  

 

3.  The bigger issue on deeper plays has been our pass protection.  Far too often we have defenders running free at Josh causing him to scramble and people to improvise and break off routes...or he gets sacked, or has to take a quick shorter option.  And we have also had way too many situations of down and very long thanks to bad penalties, stupid first down calls, sacks, etc.  This allows the defense cheat deep and focus on taking that away.  

 

4.  I think the issue is more centered around the OL struggles. 

 

5.  I agree, and I think this is where Daboll has been terrible.  He isn't adjusting to what the defense is doing in how he calls a game.  

 

6.  Sanders has been very good, our woes are not in relation to him. 

 

7.  I think McKenzie has been subject to his expanded ST role, and just having a lot of weapons to get involved already on offense.  Harder to call specialty plays for someone like him who never sees the field much until those plays are called, makes them easier to defend too.  

 

8.  I don't think there is any "souring" of any kind.  Josh is a fiery player, and I think that was more him trying to wake everyone up and fire them up.  

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

6.  Sanders has been very good, our woes are not in relation to him.  

 

One area where Sanders has been bad (actually worse than bad) is blocking on the outside. The only wide receiver we have among our starters who can block is Diggs. 

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

One area where Sanders has been bad (actually worse than bad) is blocking on the outside. The only wide receiver we have among our starters who can block is Diggs. 

 

I will give you that, don't disagree there.  I was more referencing his ability to get open

[In Summary]

Re 2:  Beane and McDermott talk about interchangeability and positional flexibility but the long rangy tackles (Spencer Brown) with quick feet capable of handling  wide 9 technique rushers are a different body type than the snow-plow type guards of years past that we suddenly crave.  I think one of Beane/McDermott/Daboll was trying to evolve the game and positional body type requirement faster than the game would allow.  

 

The Bills' backs need  interior linemen that can move the D linemen.  Nobody is fast enough to threaten the outside so no over pursuit by defenders to open up cutback lanes. etc.  Opponent DL knows they'll win their 1 on 1 matchups. 

 

The Bills invested in OT with the Dawkins contract and the draft.  If you had to pick between improving your tackle or guard positions, and you're predominantly a passing team, you can fairly choose tackle - which they did.

[Nihilarian]

Funny thing though that you mention investing in a solid LT. Just recently the Cleveland Browns  gave both their OGs extensions in the middle of the season.

 

Realizing that their run game makes their offense work and even though they took the #1 overall QB in the 2018 draft...he is nothing without their run game. Cleveland #5 in rush attempts, #2 in rush yards, #1 in rush TDs...all with a non running QB. 

 

 

[Billsfan1972]

Good thing the author was Virgil.....  Any of us who expressed concern prior to Jax, were told how stoopid we were.😜

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 11/11/2021 at 7:31 AM, GunnerBill said:

The root cause of the issues is the offensive line. Blame coaches, blame players, blame the Quarterback.... but responsibility for that properly lies with the personnel department. They got unlucky with Dion, he is not at his best and likely won't be all year with the after effects of covid. I think Daryl Williams regression was not an obvious thing to call but the interior was not good last year and they did nothing about it. When you add all that to the league deciding to call offensive holding again the result is a mess. 

When McD/ Daboll go for the win over a chips shot FG to go to OT or win

 

Ballsy but disastrous.   

 

I am so damn tired of seeing a PASS play on 4th and 13 when a FG wins a game 

 

so while I agree that  lack of protection and running lanes are problematic 

 

Coaching matters. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

When McD/ Daboll go for the win over a chips shot FG to go to OT or win

 

Ballsy but disastrous.   

 

I am so damn tired of seeing a PASS play on 4th and 13 when a FG wins a game 

 

so while I agree that  lack of protection and running lanes are problematic 

 

Coaching matters. 

 

Honestly i'm kicking field goal unless is 4 -3 (unless need to score too win or down big) but no more than that.  Going for it on 4th down is getting more risker on how the Defense of other teams are playing team now.

[Mat68]

I would like to see more Davis.  Early downs and redzone.  I would like to see Mckenzie added into the game plan.  Sanders, Beasley and Diggs are our best 3 but the the formations are becoming predictable.

[prissythecat]

18 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Good thing the author was Virgil.....  Any of us who expressed concern prior to Jax, were told how stoopid we were.😜

that’s because Virgil doesn’t harp on stuff that is mostly irrelevant like passing for 300 or Daboll not making the offense exciting enough for you lol

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

When McD/ Daboll go for the win over a chips shot FG to go to OT or win

 

Ballsy but disastrous.   

 

I am so damn tired of seeing a PASS play on 4th and 13 when a FG wins a game 

 

so while I agree that  lack of protection and running lanes are problematic 

 

Coaching matters. 

 

When did they pass up a FG to win??? Hasn't happened.

[LABILLBACKER]

Last year our OL was weak but Josh was able to athletically camouflage the obvious flaws in our finesse OL. This year our OL has actually regressed and gotten worse. Teams can now totally ignore the run game and play constant cover 2 shell. Brown and Knox will help to some degree this week but we're a long way from fixing the OL.  Yes our RB's are incredibly mediocre but the OL is the #1 problem. 

[Billsfan1972]

15 hours ago, prissythecat said:

that’s because Virgil doesn’t harp on stuff that is mostly irrelevant like passing for 300 or Daboll not making the offense exciting enough for you lol

But stating the same thing.  Just because you don't like that I said it, didn't make it wrong.

 

Now Josh go out throw for 400 and bag 40+ on the Jets.

[prissythecat]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

But stating the same thing.  Just because you don't like that I said it, didn't make it wrong.

 

Now Josh go out throw for 400 and bag 40+ on the Jets.

 

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

But stating the same thing.  Just because you don't like that I said it, didn't make it wrong.

 

Now Josh go out throw for 400 and bag 40+ on the Jets.

passing for 300 or more yards doesn’t correlate with winning- something which you contInue to not understand.  On the other hand , running the ball for 100 plus yards does .

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

I agree with this 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 11/11/2021 at 3:03 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

2.  We have an OL problem and offensive scheme problem in terms of the run game.  We run way too much from gimmicky formations or off RPO's, all of which are slower to develop preventing the backs from hitting the hole harder and faster.  

 

3.  The bigger issue on deeper plays has been our pass protection.  Far too often we have defenders running free at Josh causing him to scramble and people to improvise and break off routes...or he gets sacked, or has to take a quick shorter option. 

1. I don’t understand how we can’t hit Diggs on a slant. Why do we have quarters like Jacksonville 3rd Quarter where he isn’t targeted? 

 

 

2. Daboll has too many sacred cows with this offense and he does not adjust.

 

It’s just understood that Beasley and Sanders must play every snap. Daboll said Gabe Davis plays behind the big 3 WRs.
 

Why aren’t the Bills using their defensive line approach to WR and rotating Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie in at WR in place of Beasley and Sanders, respectfully? 
 

What’s going to happen is an injury to one of the Big 3 and McKenzie and Davis aren’t going to be ready to go. 

 

 

3. I think this point about the run game is correct. We are obsessed with these delayed handoffs and fake RPOs out of shotgun that take too long. 
 

Line up in Pro Set under Center and hand the ball off for 4-yards.

 

Like my sacred cows point, get Moss out of this offense. Daboll has just crowned him our Red Zone back and so he gets every opportunity down there. It’s just assumed he is our beat option. 
 

 

4. With all this talk about checking down and taking what the defense gives them, I want to see how aggressive the Bills are throwing intermediate 15-20 yard throws that were the hallmark. 
 

You just don’t want to see the Bills become a check down reliant offense that needs 17 play drives to score.
 

We haven’t had a deep ball since 2018 because we don’t have the speed on the outside and we don’t have the offensive line to hold up.

 

Josh’s escapability and + mobility cover a bad offensive line. He makes it look easy to dodge pressure. If we had Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff back there, we’d lead the league in sacks taken.

[Dukestreetking]

20 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I would like to see more Davis.  Early downs and redzone.  I would like to see Mckenzie added into the game plan.  Sanders, Beasley and Diggs are our best 3 but the the formations are becoming predictable.

 

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Why aren’t the Bills using their defensive line approach to WR and rotating Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie in at WR in place of Beasley and Sanders, respectfully

 

As there are few quick fixes in the wings (aside from Brown's return) I would suggest a bigger role for Mck.

 

Looking to add some more pop/dynamism to the O.

 

Hap said earlier he's only getting 16 percent of snaps; that's a motion/jet sweep giveaway. Can Bills double that?

 

Of course, that leaves a ST question. Imv, I would pull him from KR but maintain PR role, if any. Realize that's risky, but all changes carry some risk.

 

Finally GB: to me, he looks like he's been nursing some (small) injury all season. Less explosive routes, etc. Just a spitball thought.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/11/2021 at 2:03 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

2.  We have an OL problem and offensive scheme problem in terms of the run game.  We run way too much from gimmicky formations or off RPO's, all of which are slower to develop preventing the backs from hitting the hole harder and faster. 

 

I've been trying to figure out (and this is steep uphill, because I don't have good football background) what the mismatch is with our run game and how it fits in with our pass game.  Given how uphill I find it, I say "Good Luck, Muffin, You Need It!" to all the folks "doing their own research" from a lack of relevant background depth in other subjects.  Expertise matters.

 

That said, some facts (kinda- bunch of unknowns here):

-Bills have 216 rush attempts

-Allen has 57 of those 216 attempts (26%, ~1 in 4).  How many of those are designed runs, and what's the blocking for them?  Don't know.

-Subtract out Allen's 57 attempts, we have 159 attempts.  How many of them are "gimmicky formations"?  Don't know, but do have data on RPOs and non-RB runs.

-Data on RPOs.  Allen is scored with 52 RPOs.  We have run on 11 of them.  Assuming 100% run options to the backs, that's 7% of our non-QB rush attempts.

-I'm assuming "gimmicky" formations would included reverses, etc so looking at rush attempts by WR, FB etc - that's 7 attempts.  4% of the "non-QB" rushes.

 

So 89% of our non-QB rush attempts appear to involve Motor or Moss and do not involve RPOs.

To my eyes most of these involve straightforward run plays, maybe not enough gimmicky about them.

 

A bit more data to inject into the conversation while I'm here:

We have 958 rush yards: 562 before contact, 394 after contact

-Of those Allen has 319, 33%.  232 before contact, 87 after contact.  (That's a *****-ton more YAC than I'd like Allen to be getting)

-Of the 639 non-QB rush yards, 332 before contact and 307 after contact. 

-So 48%, almost half, of our rush yards by non-QB are after contact.  Contrary to the believe that Singletary and Motor go down at the first contact, if they did that we'd have only 332 rush yards except by our QB

 

Overall, 53 of our 550 offensive plays are RPOs (just under 10%)

Shotgun vs under center: 191 rush attempts tabulated: 100 from under center, 91 from shotgun. 

-If we assume that the majority (80%) of Allen's 57 attempts come from Shotgun, that would be ~45 RB rushes from shotgun and ~89 RB rushes from under center (I'm estimating a correction for QB sneaks on short yardage and victory kneeldowns)

-Total of 134 plays from under center, 100 rushes.  So 74% of the time we're under center, we rush - and it's probably higher after you subtract QB sneaks, victory formation etc.

 

Your conclusion?

 

My conclusion is that far from being too "gimmicky" and RPO-centric on rush attempts, we have a gigantic "tell".  Shotgun: play the pass and contain Josh Allen.  Under center: Key on the run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

On 11/11/2021 at 2:18 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

One area where Sanders has been bad (actually worse than bad) is blocking on the outside. The only wide receiver we have among our starters who can block is Diggs. 

I think this is probably right, but to really confirm it we'd have to have a RB who can actually get outside.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I think this is probably right, but to really confirm it we'd have to have a RB who can actually get outside.

 

I think it is confirmed on some of the wide receiver screens and quick game. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/11/2021 at 3:18 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

One area where Sanders has been bad (actually worse than bad) is blocking on the outside. The only wide receiver we have among our starters who can block is Diggs. 

 

Well, I guess the starters are technically, Diggs and Sanders, so that's practically defined once you ding Sanders, yes?

 

Davis is probably the best blocker of the WR who have started the last 2 seasons.  'lil Dirty is a fine blocker for his size.

 

Sanders started out the season laying down some good licks in the blocking department but of recent games - nope.  I personally think he's hurting and needs to be on a snap count.

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

My conclusion is that far from being too "gimmicky" and RPO-centric on rush attempts, we have a gigantic "tell".  Shotgun: play the pass and contain Josh Allen.  Under center: Key on the run.

That would definitely seem to follow from your analysis - way too predictable.

By the way, a lot of what you just did is exactly what the much disparaged analytics guy-in-the-khaki-pants types do. I certainly hope they've recognized these trends too. If not, I hope they read TSW. And that the coaches listen.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I guess the starters are technically, Diggs and Sanders, so that's practically defined once you ding Sanders, yes?

 

Davis is probably the best blocker of the WR who have started the last 2 seasons.  'lil Dirty is a fine blocker for his size.

 

Sanders started out the season laying down some good licks in the blocking department but of recent games - nope.  I personally think he's hurting and needs to be on a snap count.

 

Really want Davis to have lots more snaps. Being a good blocker helps lots as well.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Really want Davis to have lots more snaps. Being a good blocker helps lots as well.

 

Looking at the snap counts and play of late, one of my conclusions was that we should dial back on Sanders (and possibly Beasley, at least until his ribs heal) and find more snaps for Davis and McKenzie.  On the premise of "nothing is given, everything is earned", he simply hasn't been coming through the last couple weeks.  5 of 8 against Tenn, 0 for 4 against Miami, and 4 for 8 against Jax with a couple times he was open and Allen didn't try him, begging why?  Yes, some are overthrows but some are "were you really where he expected you to be, when he expected it?" or "c'mon man, catch that" misses. 

 

Plus he's whiffed blocks.  Less praise in the pressers and more delivery on the field, please, Sanders, and earn your 84% of the snaps.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I guess the starters are technically, Diggs and Sanders, so that's practically defined once you ding Sanders, yes?

 

Davis is probably the best blocker of the WR who have started the last 2 seasons.  'lil Dirty is a fine blocker for his size.

 

Sanders started out the season laying down some good licks in the blocking department but of recent games - nope.  I personally think he's hurting and needs to be on a snap count.

 

I meant of Diggs, Sanders and Beas. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I meant of Diggs, Sanders and Beas. 

 

Yeah, I can't remember seeing Beas block and thinking Whoa, Bam!  Doesn't mean he can't, or won't block, just means anything I've seen isn't impressed on my memory.

 

But need for better blocking is another reason to shift some snaps to Davis. 

 

I dunno about "lots more" as was said above, he's getting 36% (25-44% after week 1).  I guess I'd like to see him shift up about 5-10 snaps, but not running more 4 WR, just nibble a few from Sanders

[LABILLBACKER]

This is what made Belichick so damn good. He made adjustments constantly. Not after a season or a game or even a half. Sometimes it came after a drive. I think teams had plenty of tape from late last year to start using this cover2 shell. They already had the data that our OL & running game were weak. KC used a version of the shell last year and other teams are jumping onboard. And it's working. Until we upgrade the OL this will continue to be our challenge this year.

Edited November 13, 2021 by LABILLBACKER