TNF: Bucs at Eagles

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, thenorthremembers said:

Philadelphia may have a Quarterback issue, but more than anything else they have a Coaching and offensive line issue.  How they hired a guy who had never called plays in the NFL is beyond me.  If they were planning to go with a young Quarterback they needed a seasoned NFL coach who at the very least had called his own plays at the pro level. 

 

The play calling was horrendous last night.   He has no awareness of his team, what they do best, and how to shape a game plan around it.   His main objective last night was to try and push the ball downfield with a terrible offensive line, and no run game to offset the pass rush.  I think Hurts has a ton of talent, but his head coach is not doing him any favors helping to slow the game down. 

 

 

Yea I agree with the fact he is getting no help with the playcalling and the fact they refuse to use Sanders to take some load off. The oline thing I mean what can you do? Both guards done for the year by week 5, Lane Johnson missing with a personal matter, the center Kelce banged up.... when everyone is healthy their line is really talented but they just never seem to be able to get their first 5 on the field. This is 3 years in a row now they have been injury ravaged up front. 

[BuffaloRebound]

Everybody should know by now the League is serious about cleaning up taunting.  Compared to what’s been called through the first 6 weeks, that was one of the easier flags to throw.  That Philly LB is an idiot.  

[thenorthremembers]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree with the fact he is getting no help with the playcalling and the fact they refuse to use Sanders to take some load off. The oline thing I mean what can you do? Both guards done for the year by week 5, Lane Johnson missing with a personal matter, the center Kelce banged up.... when everyone is healthy their line is really talented but they just never seem to be able to get their first 5 on the field. This is 3 years in a row now they have been injury ravaged up front. 

I agree on their Oline, but it goes more to the point on Sirianni.  You know you cant protect your QB but then you go out there and try and throw 40 yard passes.   They have very talented wideouts, figure out how to get them ball in space.   Run some jet sweeps.  Try to get the ball to the sidelines.   You probably cant hide the oline all game, but you dont have to make it worse.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

I agree on their Oline, but it goes more to the point on Sirianni.  You know you cant protect your QB but then you go out there and try and throw 40 yard passes.   They have very talented wideouts, figure out how to get them ball in space.   Run some jet sweeps.  Try to get the ball to the sidelines.   You probably cant hide the oline all game, but you dont have to make it worse.

 

I am not sure I agree on the very talented wideouts. They have Smith who is really talented. Reagor is too inconsistent right now. But yea the playcalling is odd. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure I agree on the very talented wideouts. They have Smith who is really talented. Reagor is too inconsistent right now. But yea the playcalling is odd. 

 

FWIW I thought Daboll's playcalling was odd Allen's rookie season and did Allen no favors behind a crap OL that couldn't run block, either - but he's improved each year IMHO. 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Belated Friday morning reflections:

 

- one of the worst prime time games so far this season. This will be controversial but I'm going to say it.... Tampa Bay are boring as hell;

 

- remember the first half of last season when the offense was not clicking and they were talking about trying to mesh what Arians runs with what Brady likes? Well the answer to that was that Arians has basically canned his offense. The last two games I have seen Tampa - last night and at Foxborough - could have been New England offense circa 2014;

 

- The Tampa secondary is going to stop them repeating;

 

- Jalen Hurts is a gamer and he has no quit in him, but he just isn't a starting calibre NFL Quarterback. Philly either needs to draft one early or trade for Deshaun Watson (legal situation allowing);

 

- I am with the Eagles fans.... they need to find a way to get Miles Sanders the football way more often. He is their best offensive player, he had 9 carries at over 6 yards a carry and they are forcing their QB who is underdeveloped as a passer to pass it too often. Crazy.

These last 2 points go hand in hand for me. 

 

First off you have Sanders. The guy is electric. Offense should flow through him. Get him some runs and it sets up much more. Play action, screens, draws jet sweeps...general misdirection would work well for this offense. 

 

Second, Hurts isn't Mahomes or Dak or Allen. He should almost never throw 40 passes in a game. But even at this stage of his career he's someone you could win with. As you say kid is a gamer. Guys with his mental make up sometimes may take a while longer to get there but they will scratch their way to succeed. The mistake I believe they made with him is hiring a coach that has been pretty lukewarm to his development. Players like Hurts, Fields in Chicago and Lance in SF....they aren't plug and play options in typical offenses like Trevor Lawrence, Herbert...guys like that. Teams need to give them the Lamar Jackson treatment and suit the offense to what they do well and use that athletic ability while they work on the rest of their skills. 

 

I do like Hurts. I think he could be a decent player on the NFL. But for what the Eagles are trying to do he's a terrible fit. Honestly, the Eagles would be better off rolling with Minshew if they won't capitalize on the athleticism that Hurts brings to the table. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I know "there are no moral victories" in football, but I'm frankly amazed that Philly made it 28-22

[BuffaloRebound]

An argument can be made that Sirianni is doing exactly what he should do with Hurts.  Find out if he can be an elite QB.  They aren’t going anywhere this year.  Most important thing for that organization this year is to find out if Hurts can be an upper echelon QB.  Running a gimmicky offense will just cloud the picture and maybe get you 8 wins at best.  With 3 first rounders next year, better to find out now what you got in Hurts.  

[thenorthremembers]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure I agree on the very talented wideouts. They have Smith who is really talented. Reagor is too inconsistent right now. But yea the playcalling is odd. 

Agree to disagree, but Reagor is an incredibly talented player.   He was a 1st round pick for a reason.  Maybe it never works out, but the talent level is very high.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

Agree to disagree, but Reagor is an incredibly talented player.   He was a 1st round pick for a reason.  Maybe it never works out, but the talent level is very high.

 

Sure he has talent. At the moment he isn't a proven NFL player. That was the distinction I was trying to make. He has struggled to adjust.

[nucci]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

An argument can be made that Sirianni is doing exactly what he should do with Hurts.  Find out if he can be an elite QB.  They aren’t going anywhere this year.  Most important thing for that organization this year is to find out if Hurts can be an upper echelon QB.  Running a gimmicky offense will just cloud the picture and maybe get you 8 wins at best.  With 3 first rounders next year, better to find out now what you got in Hurts.  

he's not helping him to be an elite QB with the play calling

[DCOrange]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

But don't you go for it on the 2nd one to ensure that you're not statistically out of it right away if you fail to convert? Stay alive as long as you can, which means keep them within one score (plus 2-pt conversion) as long as possible. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up

 

Basically, going for 2 the first try increases your chances of winning. If you get it, you kick the PAT on the next score and win. If you don't get it, you go for 2 the next time and have a pretty decent chance of tying.

 

If you kick the PAT the first time and miss it, you're in the same boat as if you had missed the 2 point conversion; going for 2 on the second try to tie it. If you kick the PAT the first time and make it, you still have to go for 2 the next time (if you're going for the win), only this time failing to convert means you lost while converting doesn't increase your odds anymore than the going for 2 the first time around does.

 

Put simpler, assuming you're going to score two TDs while your opponent scores 0, you're left with the following odds:

1. 2 Point conversion --> PAT = 59% win probability
2. PAT --> PAT = 45.5% win probability
3. PAT --> 2 Point conversion = 45% win probability

[thenorthremembers]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sure he has talent. At the moment he isn't a proven NFL player. That was the distinction I was trying to make. He has struggled to adjust.

Fully understand, and agree.   Think he is miscast in the offense.   Loved his college tape. 

[DCOrange]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Belated Friday morning reflections:

 

- one of the worst prime time games so far this season. This will be controversial but I'm going to say it.... Tampa Bay are boring as hell;

 

- remember the first half of last season when the offense was not clicking and they were talking about trying to mesh what Arians runs with what Brady likes? Well the answer to that was that Arians has basically canned his offense. The last two games I have seen Tampa - last night and at Foxborough - could have been New England offense circa 2014;

 

- The Tampa secondary is going to stop them repeating;

 

- Jalen Hurts is a gamer and he has no quit in him, but he just isn't a starting calibre NFL Quarterback. Philly either needs to draft one early or trade for Deshaun Watson (legal situation allowing);

 

- I am with the Eagles fans.... they need to find a way to get Miles Sanders the football way more often. He is their best offensive player, he had 9 carries at over 6 yards a carry and they are forcing their QB who is underdeveloped as a passer to pass it too often. Crazy.

Certainly possible but it'll depend on if Carlton Davis, Winfield, and potentially Murphy-Bunting are able to come back and stay healthy. If everyone is healthy, their secondary should be quite good. Unfortunately pretty much everyone is injured right now.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

Certainly possible but it'll depend on if Carlton Davis, Winfield, and potentially Murphy-Bunting are able to come back and stay healthy. If everyone is healthy, their secondary should be quite good. Unfortunately pretty much everyone is injured right now.

 

Davis is solid. Winfield was excellent as a rookie.... Murphy-Bunting I think is hopeless anyway. 

[mannc]

22 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up

 

Basically, going for 2 the first try increases your chances of winning. If you get it, you kick the PAT on the next score and win. If you don't get it, you go for 2 the next time and have a pretty decent chance of tying.

 

If you kick the PAT the first time and miss it, you're in the same boat as if you had missed the 2 point conversion; going for 2 on the second try to tie it. If you kick the PAT the first time and make it, you still have to go for 2 the next time (if you're going for the win), only this time failing to convert means you lost while converting doesn't increase your odds anymore than the going for 2 the first time around does.

 

Put simpler, assuming you're going to score two TDs while your opponent scores 0, you're left with the following odds:

1. 2 Point conversion --> PAT = 59% win probability
2. PAT --> PAT = 45.5% win probability
3. PAT --> 2 Point conversion = 45% win probability

Please send this to Troy Aikman.  You might have to use smaller words.

[Solomon Grundy]

Is Jalen Hurts a better version of Tyrod Taylor?

[DCOrange]

29 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Jalen Hurts a better version of Tyrod Taylor?

I think he's probably worse than Tyrod was for us.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think he's probably worse than Tyrod was for us.

 

Worse than 2015 Tyrod. Similar to the 16 and 17 version IMO.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up

 

Basically, going for 2 the first try increases your chances of winning. If you get it, you kick the PAT on the next score and win. If you don't get it, you go for 2 the next time and have a pretty decent chance of tying.

 

If you kick the PAT the first time and miss it, you're in the same boat as if you had missed the 2 point conversion; going for 2 on the second try to tie it. If you kick the PAT the first time and make it, you still have to go for 2 the next time (if you're going for the win), only this time failing to convert means you lost while converting doesn't increase your odds anymore than the going for 2 the first time around does.

 

Put simpler, assuming you're going to score two TDs while your opponent scores 0, you're left with the following odds:

1. 2 Point conversion --> PAT = 59% win probability
2. PAT --> PAT = 45.5% win probability
3. PAT --> 2 Point conversion = 45% win probability

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

An argument can be made that Sirianni is doing exactly what he should do with Hurts.  Find out if he can be an elite QB.    With 3 first rounders next year, better to find out now what you got in Hurts.  

Elite?? In the 1.5 games I have watched, he looked to be barely a serviceable QB. He just seems to throw the ball in the general direction of his receivers, rarely goes through his progressions, looks skittish and not poised. Yesterday's terrible performance was against the bottom ranked defensive backfield. Plus he had plenty of time to throw.

I know Flacco is  over the hill, but maybe he can at least manage the game. 

47 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is Jalen Hurts a better version of Tyrod Taylor?

Imo, TT was tentative but at least  protected the football and scrambled a lot better than Hurts. So, I think Hurts is not a better version of TT 

Edited October 15, 2021 by Fan in Chicago

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, DCOrange said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28100383/going-2-8-points-why-nfl-teams-keep-doing-why-analytics-backs-up

 

Basically, going for 2 the first try increases your chances of winning. If you get it, you kick the PAT on the next score and win. If you don't get it, you go for 2 the next time and have a pretty decent chance of tying.

 

If you kick the PAT the first time and miss it, you're in the same boat as if you had missed the 2 point conversion; going for 2 on the second try to tie it. If you kick the PAT the first time and make it, you still have to go for 2 the next time (if you're going for the win), only this time failing to convert means you lost while converting doesn't increase your odds anymore than the going for 2 the first time around does.

 

Put simpler, assuming you're going to score two TDs while your opponent scores 0, you're left with the following odds:

1. 2 Point conversion --> PAT = 59% win probability
2. PAT --> PAT = 45.5% win probability
3. PAT --> 2 Point conversion = 45% win probability

That's all smart stuff, and of course I'm with you.

 

But what I'm thinking about (and doing a poor job of representing clearly) is when a team is down two scores and NEEDS a 2-pt conversion just to TIE (this can be either an 11 or 15 point deficit). You take the sure thing the first time around (FG or TD+PAT) to stay alive for a chance after the second score. 

 

I think this is a case of miscommunication on my part.

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

That's all smart stuff, and of course I'm with you.

 

But what I'm thinking about (and doing a poor job of representing clearly) is when a team is down two scores and NEEDS a 2-pt conversion just to TIE (this can be either an 11 or 15 point deficit). You take the sure thing the first time around (FG or TD+PAT) to stay alive for a chance after the second score. 

 

I think this is a case of miscommunication on my part.

They didn't need a 2pt conversion to tie they needed it to win.

[Richard Noggin]

11 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

They didn't need a 2pt conversion to tie they needed it to win.

Right, which is why I'm idiotically arguing a point that no one else is, and now trying to steer you all into my fun world of tangents.

 

Won't you join me?