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On 8/12/2022 at 9:44 AM, Doc said:

But, but, but...inflation was 0% last month!

It was. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-11/one-chart-that-shows-inflation-really-was-0-in-july

What do you mean when you say “stop inflation!”

Do you mean deflating prices to where they were in July 2021? Across the board price and wage cuts?

Or do you mean “stop the rise in prices so that I know that my savings or salary today won’t be worth a whole lot less next month or next year.”

Prices did not increase overall from June to July, and they don’t appear to be increasing from July to now. In fact, fuel has gotten considerably cheaper. 
I do not make economic decisions based on what prices were a year ago. I make them based on what I expect prices to be a year from now. 
The year over year inflation numbers can be useful for some limited purposes. But here they are being used for shock purposes or political purposes. 

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This is where mixing politics and economics make for bad analysis.

The core inflation rate in July was about 6%.

Way over the Fed's goal of 2%.

Core inflation is way more accurate in this case because getting to zero is almost entirely due to energy prices, which along with food, are highly volatile on a month to month basis, and can grossly distort numbers.

Pols use these to serve their own purposes, but most aren't tricked.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

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2 hours ago, sherpa said:

This is where mixing politics and economics make for bad analysis.

The core inflation rate in July was about 6%.

Way over the Fed's goal of 2%.

Core inflation is way more accurate in this case because getting to zero is almost entirely due to energy prices, which along with food, are highly volatile on a month to month basis, and can grossly distort numbers.

Pols use these to serve their own purposes, but most aren't tricked.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

Now there’s a fair and honest take. None of these numbers are made up or lies. It depends on what you’re trying to measure and for what purpose. 

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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Now there’s a fair and honest take. None of these numbers are made up or lies. It depends on what you’re trying to measure and for what purpose. 

 

I specialize in fair and honest takes.

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Inflation is Straining the Charitable Sector. 

 

“According to Feeding America, 53 million people turned to food banks, food pantries and meal programs in 2021, one-third more than prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, when millions of Americans relied on food banks – some for the first time – as workers lost jobs or were temporarily unemployed.

 

Today, many people are back to work, but real wages, or inflation-adjusted pay, keeps falling, as grocery prices rise. Again, food banks are seeing long lines for help and reporting spiking demand.”

 

https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2022/08/17/inflation_is_straining_the_charitable_sector_848394.html

 

 

.

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Federal Reserve: Get ready for "uncomfortably high" inflation for a while

 

0c493e43-ad6c-4fcf-b07d-f65b687e9494-860

 

 

And uncomfortably high interest rates, too. CNBC’s team called the Federal Reserve’s July minutes “confusing” after their release late yesterday, but the overall message looks clear enough. The Fed still sees inflation as the greatest threat to the economy, and it doesn’t see any signs of significant denting in inflation yet — not from policy, and not from its previous rate hikes.

 

The Financial Times also didn’t have too much trouble sussing out a message from the Fed’s minutes, either. The Fed expects inflation to continue at significantly high levels for some time, and also noted that their previous rate hikes have not had much of an impact yet on its trajectory. It’s become enough of a problem, FT notes, that the Fed now thinks that it will have to keep rates higher and longer to seriously dent inflation:

 

 

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/08/18/fed-get-ready-for-uncomfortably-high-inflation-for-a-while-n490602

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8881b6d4-76e6-46cd-9ebe-efaeffeddb98?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9

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9 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

 

Federal Reserve: Get ready for "uncomfortably high" inflation for a while

 

0c493e43-ad6c-4fcf-b07d-f65b687e9494-860

 

 

And uncomfortably high interest rates, too. CNBC’s team called the Federal Reserve’s July minutes “confusing” after their release late yesterday, but the overall message looks clear enough. The Fed still sees inflation as the greatest threat to the economy, and it doesn’t see any signs of significant denting in inflation yet — not from policy, and not from its previous rate hikes.

 

The Financial Times also didn’t have too much trouble sussing out a message from the Fed’s minutes, either. The Fed expects inflation to continue at significantly high levels for some time, and also noted that their previous rate hikes have not had much of an impact yet on its trajectory. It’s become enough of a problem, FT notes, that the Fed now thinks that it will have to keep rates higher and longer to seriously dent inflation:

 

 

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/08/18/fed-get-ready-for-uncomfortably-high-inflation-for-a-while-n490602

 

https://www.ft.com/content/8881b6d4-76e6-46cd-9ebe-efaeffeddb98?segmentId=b385c2ad-87ed-d8ff-aaec-0f8435cd42d9


Yeah this didn’t align with the inflation reduction act messaging…. Ooops. They’ll address that with updated talking points. No worries 

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What a mess.  November can’t come fast enough.   All you dopes who voted for this bull#### should enjoy the ***** show you created.  Joke.  
 

 

Edited by Irv
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1 hour ago, Irv said:

What a mess.  November can’t come fast enough.   All you dopes who voted for this bull#### should enjoy the ***** show you created.  Joke. 

 

They're loving it.  An Admin to indulge their feelz and nonstop "get Trump."  They're in heaven.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

UNEXPECTEDLY! 

 

Inflation soars despite drop in gas prices. 

 

“Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates.”

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inflation-rose-0point1percent-in-august-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

 

 

.

the futures/commodities market is pointing to this not slowing down any time soon

 

 

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CNBC’s Jeff Cox notes the big miss against expectations:

 

Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year estimates were for 8% and 6% gains.

 

Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere. …

 

Markets slumped following the news, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 350 points after being higher earlier.

 

And this is with a roughly 10% decrease at the pump. Imagine what will happen when gas prices begin to rise, as Janet Yellen predicted this weekend. We will see even more escalation in inflation, which will further expose the “Inflation Reduction Act” as nothing more than a bait-and-switch, with Biden using inflation to pull the wool over the eyes of voters.

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/09/13/breaking-bidenflation-still-roaring-as-cpi-hits-8-3-core-cpi-near-high-at-6-3-n496107

 

 

 

 

 

 Just to put wage erosion into perspective:

 

 

.

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1 minute ago, B-Man said:

 

 

CNBC’s Jeff Cox notes the big miss against expectations:

 

Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year estimates were for 8% and 6% gains.

 

Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere. …

 

Markets slumped following the news, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 350 points after being higher earlier.

 

And this is with a roughly 10% decrease at the pump. Imagine what will happen when gas prices begin to rise, as Janet Yellen predicted this weekend. We will see even more escalation in inflation, which will further expose the “Inflation Reduction Act” as nothing more than a bait-and-switch, with Biden using inflation to pull the wool over the eyes of voters.

 

https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/09/13/breaking-bidenflation-still-roaring-as-cpi-hits-8-3-core-cpi-near-high-at-6-3-n496107

 

 

 

 

 

 Just to put wage erosion into perspective:

 

 

Hopefully everybody (also) got a 1$0,000 raise this year...

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I told y'all with my anecdotal evidence just a few days ago that it is even WORSE then the media is letting on. 

 

If Trump were in office it would be beaten into your heads daily that the entire country is in Great Depression II and that it's his fault.

 

 

They have convinced millions that Biden and the Ds have absolutely no responsibility for their Covid lunacy and predictable subsequent economic meltdown 

 

The fact they talk about with such matter of factness about it is disgusting.  

 

They cheered (I have the receipts) when that first jobs report of 33 million lost jobs after the sham shutdown.  They cheered and Hillary was tweeting about us "being number 1 in Covid deaths."

 

 

Super serious virus everyone.  

 

Sorry you're watching your 401Ks burn and retirement plans go up in smoke.  What really matters is that you can get an abortion at 36 weeks.  

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1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

I told y'all with my anecdotal evidence just a few days ago that it is even WORSE then the media is letting on. 

 

If Trump were in office it would be beaten into your heads daily that the entire country is in Great Depression II and that it's his fault.

 

 

They have convinced millions that Biden and the Ds have absolutely no responsibility for their Covid lunacy and predictable subsequent economic meltdown 

 

The fact they talk about with such matter of factness about it is disgusting.  

 

They cheered (I have the receipts) when that first jobs report of 33 million lost jobs after the sham shutdown.  They cheered and Hillary was tweeting about us "being number 1 in Covid deaths."

 

 

Super serious virus everyone.  

 

Sorry you're watching your 401Ks burn and retirement plans go up in smoke.  What really matters is that you can get an abortion at 36 weeks.  

 

The bigger problem is the stupid audience that believes it.

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1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Sorry you're watching your 401Ks burn and retirement plans go up in smoke.

Not me. I’ll be honest, I missed out on a lot of the big run up in stock prices the last 2 years, having reallocated to a T bill heavy portfolio when COVID hit. 
Now those T bills are pressing up against the historically normal range (4% for relatively short term bills) which provides a nice secure stream of income for a lot of retirees. I’m getting close. 
Remember: inflation awful if you have debt. Manageable, and sometimes not bad at all, if you don’t. 

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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Not me. I’ll be honest, I missed out on a lot of the big run up in stock prices the last 2 years, having reallocated to a T bill heavy portfolio when COVID hit. 
Now those T bills are pressing up against the historically normal range (4% for relatively short term bills) which provides a nice secure stream of income for a lot of retirees. I’m getting close. 
Remember: inflation awful if you have debt. Manageable, and sometimes not bad at all, if you don’t. 

 

 

Sky high Inflation awful if you have a planned fixed retirement 

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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Not me. I’ll be honest, I missed out on a lot of the big run up in stock prices the last 2 years, having reallocated to a T bill heavy portfolio when COVID hit. 
Now those T bills are pressing up against the historically normal range (4% for relatively short term bills) which provides a nice secure stream of income for a lot of retirees. I’m getting close. 
Remember: inflation awful if you have debt. Manageable, and sometimes not bad at all, if you don’t. 

 

How is a 4% income stream good when inflation is over 8%?  

 

Inflation is manageable when it's at historic norms.  We are not even close to that now. 

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