So if we trade our first and second for the 18th pick who would you take

[LABILLBACKER]

Throw in the 3rd and get Pitts who will be a generational TE. Can't see Beane doing this. Pitts is the only player I would trade up for.

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Throw in the 3rd and get Pitts who will be a generational TE. Can't see Beane doing this. Pitts is the only player I would trade up for.

 

This would be terrible in my opinion.

 

1) TEs seem to take multiple years to develop - so you would waste a pick for a guy that might finally develop in 3 years.

 

2) Generational TEs (the top guys right now) are rarely drafted high - most are later picks and even undrafted.  The top TEs have mostly been busts/average once they hit the NFL.

 

3) The Bills and Josh seem to be a very WR centric team - so even drafting a TE does not mean he excels on this team and they won’t until Josh’s game adjusts to more dump offs and short throws to RBs and TEs on leak routes.  Right now he is in the read the defense and choose the open WR mode and the Bills have at least 4 good WRs for him to work with.

 

4) The Bills under this staff bring most rookies along slowly - giving them little responsibility and little playing time early in the season and gradually increasing that time as deserved.  Therefore; I can’t imagine at TE - Pitts even sees the field in a real capacity due to this and the time it takes for TEs to learn scheme and blocking in the NFL.

 

5) The Bills are mostly employing the TE right now in an H-Back role for additional blitz pick-up and then late routes out of the back field. The same goes with RB.  I would not trust a rookie in either role to protect your most valuable asset - especially early in the season.  It also limits the routes the TE will be running and I do not see the team taking multiple of Beasley, Diggs, Sanders, and Davis off the field to put a rookie TE on the field.

 

Overall for me - Pitts at 30 would be fine, but giving up additional high picks (OP wanted to give up 2nd and you are adding a 3rd) is just a loss of young talent that we can’t have for a position that does not translate from college well and does not show any positive effects for multiple years.  I would rather use those picks on 3 guys that can help strengthen the team and look for a freak athlete later or UDFA that can develop.

 

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[Niagara Bill]

Every team needs a guy named Kwity. KWITY! KWITY!!!!

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

On 3/22/2021 at 2:33 AM, BillsFanForever19 said:

No way in hell does Kyle Pitts last until 18.

100% Correct!!! Kyle Pitts reminds me of Kellen Winslow Sr. 

 

I know that it NEVER happens, but I would not be surprised if he is drafted in the top 5. 

 

The kid is that great!!!!!

[78thealltimegreat]

On 3/22/2021 at 2:27 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

 

Trading 30+61 for an 18 puts us at  -1.32 about even trade That puts us a trade with Miami or Washington.

 

I ran a mock draft with a few different calculators and these were just some of the players that were available. 

 

Edge Kwity Payne 

Edge Greggory Rousseau

TE Kyle Pitts

CB Caleb Farley

T Christian Darrisaw

T Tevin Jenkings

CB Patrick Surtain II

CB Jayce Horn

 

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

RB Najee Harris

 

Other?

 

Funny how much these sims vary 

 

This is something just for fun

 

Thoughts

 

If does fall give me Micah Parsons I think getting into the Buffalo culture will straighten him out if those character issues are in fact real 

[Bill from NYC]

23 hours ago, dpberr said:

In this scenario, I take PSII.  High football intelligence, solid tackler.  Teachable.  I think he is a future starter at CB or S.    

 

Yours is a VERY good description of Surtain. 

 

I am curious as to what his 40 time will be. It may not matter so much because he played and  also practiced against the best receivers in the country. Still, when I watched Alabama it seemed as if some of the younger, returning dbs looked faster than Surtain (but of course I was not on the field with a stop watch).

 

I agree with your assertion that Surtain playing safety in the NFL is not an impossibility. That said, @GunnerBilldisagrees with me on this matter and I for one place more weight on his opinion than I do my own.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yours is a VERY good description of Surtain. 

 

I am curious as to what his 40 time will be. It may not matter so much because he played and  also practiced against the best receivers in the country. Still, when I watched Alabama it seemed as if some of the younger, returning dbs looked faster than Surtain (but of course I was not on the field with a stop watch).

 

I agree with your assertion that Surtain playing safety in the NFL is not an impossibility. That said, @GunnerBilldisagrees with me on this matter and I for one place more weight on his opinion than I do my own.  

 

It is not that I disagree that Surtain could play safety, he could. It is just that corner is the higher value position and I think he can play there at a high level too. I think he is the closest thing to a sure bet in this class. 

[dpberr]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Yours is a VERY good description of Surtain. 

 

I am curious as to what his 40 time will be. It may not matter so much because he played and  also practiced against the best receivers in the country. Still, when I watched Alabama it seemed as if some of the younger, returning dbs looked faster than Surtain (but of course I was not on the field with a stop watch).

 

I agree with your assertion that Surtain playing safety in the NFL is not an impossibility. That said, @GunnerBilldisagrees with me on this matter and I for one place more weight on his opinion than I do my own.  

I tend to think Surtain will end up being quicker than some of those CBs because of his high football intelligence/instincts and being a more complete *football player* than them at this juncture. 

 

Less hesitation in interpreting what the offense is lining up to do and a faster uptake on understanding the nuances of the call on defense.

 

I won't be surprised to see him go higher than 18th (in this scenario) on draft day because he's likely a first year starter at CB or FS.

 

[Bill from NYC]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not that I disagree that Surtain could play safety, he could. It is just that corner is the higher value position and I think he can play there at a high level too. I think he is the closest thing to a sure bet in this class. 

And again, I am not going to say that you are wrong.

That said, if you ask me who I thought/think was a better player/NFL prospect: Patrick Surtain or Minkah Fitzpatrick, I would choose Minkah without a moment's hesitation. 

Jmo.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

And again, I am not going to say that you are wrong.

That said, if you ask me who I thought/think was a better player/NFL prospect: Patrick Surtain or Minkah Fitzpatrick, I would choose Minkah without a moment's hesitation. 

Jmo.

 

I have them the other way around but it is very close. I have Surtain graded literally 1 point (and ironically 1 spot in a top 10 list) ahead of where I had Minkah. 

 

I had Minkah as the 4th best player in that class I have Surtain as the 3rd best in this class. 

Edited March 23, 2021 by GunnerBill

[BigBuff423]

No...just, no. In a Cap reduced year, Draft picks due to their relative financial commitment, will be a premium even more than most years. I would agree that as the Bills build depth and spend wisely in FA, that Beane and company will value strategic premium single value players over breadth of talent through the Draft. But, this year, as I noted the challenges, the Draft is a key way to acquire good talent at a very reasonable cost. 

 

To reiterate, I do NOT feel that will always be the path of greatest prudence in the years to come when the Cap rebounds and good players are retained much like they've been the last 2 Off-seasons. I think Reid did this with Mahomes. They built a generally deep team of talent at various positions and sold out to get their Franchise QB, thankfully the Bills will not need to do that (assuming Josh continues his trajectory and stays healthy) but a similar approach nonetheless.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, dpberr said:

I tend to think Surtain will end up being quicker than some of those CBs because of his high football intelligence/instincts and being a more complete *football player* than them at this juncture. 

 

Less hesitation in interpreting what the offense is lining up to do and a faster uptake on understanding the nuances of the call on defense.

 

I won't be surprised to see him go higher than 18th (in this scenario) on draft day because he's likely a first year starter at CB or FS.

 

 

Surtain ran a 4.42 today.  He is plenty fast enough. 

[Buffalo03]

And why would we do this?

[ndirish1978]

Completely against trading up. The greatest positions of need we have are DE, DT, CB.  The strength of this draft is in its depth at those positions. We need to pick up extra picks in the 3rd or 4th rd and pick up some young players with upside. Tyler Shelvin, Alim McNeil, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Dyami Brown, Shawn Wade, Israel Mukuamu, Shakur Brown, Trill Williams, Paulson Adebo, Tyree Gillespie - all these players could help us immediately and they are all going rds 2-4. I'd rather pick up 3-4 of these guys rather than trade up and lose a chance at them. 

[TBBills]

I can see Bean doing things like this. Just like last year when he said only so many draft picks are gonna make the roster, we have the same situation. Trade up and get 2-3 good guys instead of 6 guys where more than half won't make it.

[MrSarcasm]

CB Patrick Surtain Jr might be there at 18, assuming Dallas doesn't take him.

[Sundancer]

I'd get a new GM. Don't throw away picks. 

[BuffaloRebound]

There’s really only a handful of roster spots available this year.  Mckenzie just took another one.  RB, OL, DL, DB, TE.  That’s 5 roster spots up for grabs.  My guess is Beane signs 2 vet ring chasers once the price tags drop and then our top 3 draft picks round out the roster.  Can’t see our two 5th rounders, 6th rounder or 7th rounder having a path to anything but a practice squad spot.  Dunlap, Ertz, Etienne, big nickel from FSU, Deonte Brown? 

[maryland-bills-fan]

On 3/22/2021 at 2:27 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/games/draft-pick-value.php

 

Trading 30+61 for an 18 puts us at  -1.32 about even trade That puts us a trade with Miami or Washington.

 

I ran a mock draft with a few different calculators and these were just some of the players that were available. 

 

Edge Kwity Payne 

Edge Greggory Rousseau

TE Kyle Pitts

CB Caleb Farley

T Christian Darrisaw

T Tevin Jenkings

CB Patrick Surtain II

CB Jayce Horn

 

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

RB Najee Harris

 

Other?

 

Funny how much these sims vary 

 

This is something just for fun

 

Thoughts

 

I'll bet 2 or 3 of those 12 might be availble at 30

 

On 3/22/2021 at 8:40 AM, mattynh said:

This kind of a hypothetical is hard to answer....this type of trade would only be made in real time at the time of the 18th pick.  And the reason is there would be a particular person who is still on board you are willing to move up for.   I know you did a mock but that is just guess for the 1op 17 picks.  You will probably get 10-12 of them off the board.  But by 18 there are always surprises.   And we don't know who the Bills value.....they actually need more than one guy, I think trade down is more likely.

I agree.  Once you are past the top 15 (or 18), then players are pretty even down to about 50, part way through the 2nd round.  I could see trading down from #30 and up from #62 to get two players in the top 40.