ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game. Looking at the earlier year matchup is a fools errand. This game is going to have a completely different feel to it. All the makings of a close game and if that ends up being true a handful of plays will decide it. Those plays can come from anywhere. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Miyagi-Do Karate said: Not sure I am following you here. Are you saying the Chiefs were playing off and soft in the 4th quarter of the week 6 game? No, the original post showed a tweet indicating the Bills had alot more success in 10 personel VS the Chiefs as opposed to being in 11 Personel. They ran 16 plays in 10 personel that game...half of wich were in the 4th while trailing.....so a situation where you are passing the D is probalby playing off/deep to prevent a big play...... so the short answer mostly yes. the Bills were down 2 scores for most of the 4th quarter. 1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said: Looking at the earlier year matchup is a fools errand. This game is going to have a completely different feel to it. All the makings of a close game and if that ends up being true a handful of plays will decide it. Those plays can come from anywhere. I can't say you are wrong.....but you could say this about every game ever played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 27 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game. I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. The Bills can only hope the chiefs lean on that game and roll with the same game plan they used week 6. But I think their coaches are too smart for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. I agree that you can't glean a whole lot from one game....but that's also why I posted the season stats first a few posts before that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 (edited) My favorite national reporter. She’s just sharp and does her homework Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pokebball Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Zerovoltz said: I agree that you can't glean a whole lot from one game....but that's also why I posted the season stats first a few posts before that one. Sure, but the season stats include our first 6-8 games and are influenced by this very same dynamic. Wouldn't you think the last half of the season might be the better sample to use "stats" from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Pokebball said: Sure, but the season stats include our first 6-8 games and are influenced by this very same dynamic. Wouldn't you think the last half of the season might be the better sample to use "stats" from? Ugh.....sure......I'll get to that later this evening.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said: I can't say you are wrong.....but you could say this about every game ever played I would disagree about that. My point is both teams are similarly built and they will go into this game planning on playing the way that got them the most wins during the season. There a lot of lopsided matchups during the season. This game is all about the 2 best in the Conference going head to head with similar traits. IMO it will be decided by the players individual accomplishments more than by schemes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichRiderBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said: My favorite national reporter. She’s just sharp and does her homework I love her too...she's in the mafia now. She's been a great part of this ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Pokebball said: I'm not sure your willing to buy this, but the Bills are a different team than they were in week six, both from a personnel as well as at a much different level of confidence. The offense in week six was still trying to figure out who they were and what role that had with and to each other. Even your Chiefs are different today and they didn't have anywhere near the changes going on as the Bills were trying to figure out. Be careful using week 6 as a barometer here. That's all I'm saying. Our defense is the side of the ball where we’re completely different than we were weak 6. No milano, no Levi, injured Edmunds. Zero aggression. We didn’t blitz the chiefs once iirc. Since that game, our D has become much more aggressive and have been disguising the blitz very well. that’s really the key to the game imo. Which team does a better job of confusing the QB with disguised blitz’s. It’s Spags’ specialty. Let’s hope Josh can recognize it. It’s the main reason we lost in week 6 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, starrymessenger said: I think the Bills will pick their poison by doubling Kelce and Hill and take their chances with Hardman and with the Chiefs running game. They will give KC the running game, like in the earlier matchup, because thats not what the Chiefs do best. When I say double Kelce and Hill (and more Kelce than Hill IMO) I dont mean to say that they will make their intentions obvious or do it all the time. Obviously they will cheat and sometimes flat out guess depending upon the situation, but I expect them to be aggressive. They will at the same time selectively bring pressure to make it more difficult for PM to find his second or third read. if PMs mobility is compromised that will greatly help Frazier & Co. Personally i thought the KC plan to run the ball down our throats in the first matchup served one unintended purpose. It allowed the Bills to hang around in a game they had no business hanging around in. The way Mahomes was easily escaping the pressure and his 80% completion%, they could've wnet down the field several times and put more points on the board. The running controlled the clock but shortened the game and didn't maximize their points. Of course, I don't think KC will use that game plan again. They are too smart. It's the AFC Championship. I expect them to be much more aggressive and go for more chunk plays to set up more scoring. For our side it's all up to Allen. He has to be on his game and into it. This can't be one of these hero ball games where's he's chucking it off his back foot, 8 feet over a guy's head into double coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said: I would disagree about that. My point is both teams are similarly built and they will go into this game planning on playing the way that got them the most wins during the season. There a lot of lopsided matchups during the season. This game is all about the 2 best in the Conference going head to head with similar traits. IMO it will be decided by the players individual accomplishments more than by schemes. Not sure if I agree with this. The ravens blitzer more than any team in the league all year. Last week, they were afraid and did so much less than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just watched all the most recent weather forecasts at ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates in KC. They are all saying the same thing; temp mid to upper 30s (37F or so) at kickoff; decent chance (maybe 50%) of some light drizzle or mist occurring now and again during the game, but nothing substantial. Temps should remain above freezing for the game. They are going to get a minor snow event but it won't start until midnight and over night on Sunday into Monday and that system will have no impact on the game at all. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmotionallyUnstable Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Rewatched the nightlights of the week 6 game: this might sound crazy, but i think if the bills D can play like they did vs the chiefs that week, like will likely win. Our offense was a putrid. Dropped passes, negative runs, you name it. It looked nothing like our current offense. That’s likely a homer take but so what, go bills. Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said: Rewatched the highlights of the week 6 game: this might sound crazy, but i think if the bills D can play like they did vs the chiefs that week, like will likely win. Our offense was a putrid. Dropped passes, negative runs, you name it. It looked nothing like our current offense. That’s likely a homer take but so what, go bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatdrought Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @Zerovoltz - curious what your thoughts are regarding Allen’s injury in the first matchup? I haven’t seen that talked about at all among the media - but his “slump” between the raiders game and the Seahawks game directly coincided with his opposite shoulder injury. Matt Hasslebeck said before the Seahawks game that he had that injury and even though it’s not the throwing arm, it affects everything about your game. Especially accuracy. He also said that that (before SEA) was about how long it took him to get right. Josh blew up in the Seahawks game and has been great since. is that on your radar at all? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, NewEra said: Not sure if I agree with this. The ravens blitzer more than any team in the league all year. Last week, they were afraid and did so much less than usual All true and I'm glad they went away from their typical game plan. Everyone has their opinion on the game and it's mine that both teams put the ball and the game in their respective QBs hands. It's going to be a shootout and like I said before the team with the better OL pass protection will have the advantage. Which QB runs/scrambles better will be 2nd most important. At least that's how I see it coming off tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Nextmanup said: Just watched all the most recent weather forecasts at ABC, CBS, and NBC affiliates in KC. They are all saying the same thing; temp mid to upper 30s (37F or so) at kickoff; decent chance (maybe 50%) of some light drizzle or mist occurring now and again during the game, but nothing substantial. Temps should remain above freezing for the game. They are going to get a minor snow event but it won't start until midnight and over night on Sunday into Monday and that system will have no impact on the game at all. what is the wind situation looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, RiotAct said: what is the wind situation looking like? None of them mentioned it at all, now that you bring it up! Don't think it's going to be particularly strong. Although it was funny, the Buffalo weather people were WAY MORE into the game (doing the weather forecast!) the last 2 weeks for the games in Buffalo. The weather segment would start and right away they were like "OK let's talk about the game!" The KC guys mentioned the game but didn't really focus on it as much as I would have thought. These were weather segments recorded early Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straight Hucklebuck Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said: ....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever..... Oh boy Honey Badger, being HYPED like he’s Ed Reed. He’s a great player. But he’s not Rod Woodson or Ronnie Lott. KC has lost games with Mahomes on the team, they aren’t undefeated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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