AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME! Bills at Chiefs, Sunday 6:40 pm on CBS

[RichRiderBills]

22 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Yes it was rosenthal 

 

The guy is really unimpressive week after week. The show with their three heads super close and the cheesy baby blue back dtop on NFL channel is one of the worst productions ever. Literally fan youtube shows with better production value and insight. 

[Blank Stare]

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

[Amaru523]

Listening to the radio yesterday on my way home from work, I believe it was FoxSports radio, they had a talking head (sorry cant remember who) predict the Chiefs to win 34-20. His reasoning made me laugh. It was because he thinks Mahomes is going to dice up the Bills because he's pissed that people think Allen should be ahead of him in the MVP race, an award that neither one of them will win.  Well, Mahomes may be mad, but the entire Bills team is pissed because just about everyone is picking the Chiefs to win.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Amaru523

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

16 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Bferra13]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

Yup was just about to post this. Not looking bad at all.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

1 minute ago, Bferra13 said:

Yup was just about to post this. Not looking bad at all.

if there are any changes, I am sure you, me, or one of the other armchair meteorologists will update us. It is amazing how much I have learned about the weather in the last 2 weeks. 😀

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

 

The reason why it matters:

 

Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than anyone in the league.  If you guys are going to come out in 3 and 4 wide all game, then you allow KC to put it's optimal defense on the field.  That matters because KC's linebackers absolutely SUCK in coverage.  KC allows a TON of points and stats to TE and pass catching backs.....when they are in base defense....with the 3 linebackers out there.

 

You all might not think so, but part of why Josh struggled VS KC in week 6 is because the Bills don't have a TE threat AND...important AND...not a big time threatening running game.....

 

When the Chiefs aren't worried about a TE or an RB running....they will nickel and dime you to death.  It isn't a coincidence that Diggs tied his 2nd lowest number of recpetions and second lowest yardage total on the year VS KC.  That's what KC does ......when they can play extra DB's all game long.  KC has a slew of really good corners and safeties.

 

it's the main reason why the KC defense is a bad matchup for the Bills.  

 

Zero, almost every team in the league runs the majority of their offensive plays from 3 WR sets.  There are 4 that don't: BAL CLE MIN SF and TEN.

 

As a response, almost every team in the league now runs close to half of their defensive plays from nickel.  That was true in 2019 and while 2020 stats not out for the public yet, I expect the trend has continued.  I expect that the same is true of KC, regardless of who they're playing.  

 

You'd have to show me the data on the pass success rate and % of base defense for KC to back this up.  Do you have data on this or is it TLAR eyeball stuff?

 

My perception of Spags is that he prefers to be aggressive with the blitz.  For teams that have the hosses to counter, quick passes to RBs and TE and YAC come along with that.

 

The bottom line is: KC overall is 19th in YPA against the pass.  Those ain't all TE and RB racking up those yards. I think you give up a good amount of yards against WR sometimes, no matter what D you're in.  But you play the personnel on your schedule, and you played this season against teams with a lot of good pass catching backs and TE.

 

Buffalo does not play more 3WR sets than anyone in the league.  "More 3 and 4 WR sets than anyone in the league" is a trending towards specious because there are only 2 teams which play >10% 4WR sets, so it's like saying "Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than Arizona" which is like "Well durr" because they're more of a running team and play a lot of 2-1.

 

I would actually be surprised if the Bills play much 4WR sets with us being so banged up at WR, but it's Daboll so you never know.  But I doubt he'll be scheming much to get KC into base D because "dance with who brung ya".  It wouldn't surprise me if we saw attempts to get you into dime, then run.  How's your dime against the run?

 

Here are data  on offensive formations.  click to embiggen.  (the same websites defensive formation data appear to be messed up.)

[atlbillsfan1975]

1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

KC is good at taking away the deep stuff. That isn't a problem when you have so much speed at WR. Diggs, Beasley and even TE and RB have proven they can get open quick. I think that will also slow down the pass rush. Funny thing is, Buffalo's OL has really improved too. I'm not sure they are even going to be able to get to Allen anyway. If that happens, Allen is going to shred them. Also, I have noticed a trend. The Bills have been quietly using motion more often. Easy to overlook, because they don't do it a lot. Allen has been using that to get a handle on what the D is doing. It's been helping him to identify mismatches and figure out who is in single coverage. This game is going to look a lot different from the previous game. I also think the run game is going to have a nice day, simply because the OL is playing better, and it isn't going to be expected.

Good point on the Oline. The first meetings saw Winters at RG, not good, and Boettger’s first start at LG. Feliciano is a huge upgrade over Winters and Boettger has showed progress. 
I like Andy Reid so it’s tough to dislike the Chief’s, but their cocky fans are making it easier and easier. 

When we win our SB and go on our run, let’s stay humble and classy. Honestly, Chief fans should just look at how their HC models behavior. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by atlbillsfan1975

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

I dunno about that.  I wish with all my heart our WR were healthier.

[Blank Stare]

11 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

It’s actually looking pretty good now during game time. No rain. Wind at 8 MPH.  Weather.com, accuweather, and nflweather.com all reporting the same. 

I hope you’re right. I see that during the day it’s not bad, but it worsens at night. At least per the weather.com app. 6:40 start, so I guess it depends on what weather.com considers night. I assume night is defined as after sunset which they have occurring at 5:30 PM. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I hope you’re right. I see that during the day it’s not bad, but it worsens at night. At least per the weather.com app. 6:40 start, so I guess it depends on what weather.com considers night. I assume night is defined as after sunset which they have occurring at 5:30 PM. 

Are you looking at hourly? Every hourly I am seeing shows little chance of rain until 9 pm. Even then, the chances are slim (though percentages vary between the websites). 

 

Also, don’t forget that times to look at are in central time. 

[Patrick Duffy]

35 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

I know weather has been beat to death this week, but come on. Supposed to be clear tomorrow in OP. No precip or wind. Meanwhile in KC...😡🤬

 

It’s even nice today in KC. Guess those two strong armed QBs will be put to the test. 

Yeah I would go with the weather report out of KC that their local news reports this evening at 6 and 11. Those I would expect will be by then those reports would likely be pretty accurate for the most part.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

😆 like this won’t happen 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, stevewin said:

I've seen experts say stuff this week that honestly they just make up.  It's not even lazy/old takes, just wrong ones - some totally from left field.  But if they say it with a lot of volume and conviction it must be true.  And there's rarely anyone else present with any actual knowledge to correct or challenge them. 

 

It's really been striking to me this week.  I realized it's because it is probably always happening, but this week with more discussion on the Bills, a team I know more about, the falsehoods and innaccuracies stand out.  It really has been kind of depressing to realize I watch so much content from people who honestly are so terrible at their job and provide nothing substantial.

 

I think it's a bit more with the Bills honestly, because we aren't one of the teams that is usually shown to a national audience.  So a lot of expert hot takes are based on what they've seen, which may or may not be representative or may have a cause different than they understand.

 

Example: it was pretty clear to me that the Bills game plan against the Ravens, especially in the RZ, was

1) contain Lamar Jackson and "force him to be a pocket QB

2) make him feel pressure in the pocket

3) contain Andrews

 

So as an example, we had Phil Simms on the Chris Simms Unbuttoned podcast phoning in and saying "the Bills made a lot of coverage mistakes, Marquise Brown was wide open in the endzone".   Yes, he was open, and yes, that's a mistake, but the Bills defense was wagering that if they contained and pressured Jackson and covered Andrews like a blanket, the Ravens WR could be prairie-open and it wouldn't matter.  Brown being open was a matter of defensive priorities as much or more than blown coverage.

 

And that wasn't even a truly terrible take since at least it was based upon an accurate observation of an actual game.  Where is someone even getting that Tre White is struggling right now or that he can't cover a TE?

 

Mahomes is another creature at QB altogether and I expect us to struggle defensively, frankly, because we do against truly multi-dimensional teams.  If we play to take away Kelce and Hill, Mahomes will just shrug and throw elsewhere.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

FWIW 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

😆 like this won’t happen 

 

 

Lol, yeah there will definitely be fans there. Hopefully they won't be all up in the players faces and stuff this time.

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

Watching GMFB, I noticed something that I find interesting. The clip of Diggs is him congratulating teammates. Most of us have seen his interview where he talks about how unselfish the whole WR core is and how they don’t care who gets the ball as long as the team wins. 
 

The clip they keep showing of dirtbag Hill..."I told you, keep the camera on me dog! The game ended when they needed ME the most."  
 

This the guy KC cheers for in Hill. "Stillwater police records indicate that on December 12, 2014, Hill was arrested on complaints of assault of his 20-year-old pregnant girlfriend, Crystal Espinal. The police report states that the two got into an argument and he threw her around "like a ragdoll", punched her in the face, sat on her and repeatedly punched her in the stomach, and choked her."

 

He pleaded guilty. KC drafted him anyway. 

 

They also kept him on the roster after he broke his 3 year old son's arm and was recorded threatening the mother. 

 

*not a process guy. 

[YoloinOhio]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I dunno about that.  I wish with all my heart our WR were healthier.

The only one I’m concerned about being effective for health reasons is Gabe Davis. When you have to go all the way to your WR4 as the health issue at this point of the season it’s pretty fortunate. Beasely is fine and really was shut down by Baltimore’s defensive strategy last week. Diggs oblique has not impacted his performance and smoke is 100%

Edited January 23, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[ytownblofan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

Went snowboarding last night at HV last night and I swear half the people on the mountain seemed to be wearing Bills gear (tons of jerseys too). I must have heard the Shout Song 20 times and people were jump amped. I want this so GD badly for the city and to just soak it in for 2 more weeks....at least.

 

 

Was there the Friday before the Colts game and the amount of Bills gear was awesome to see for a couple of guys from Cleveland