Possible Bills off season moves.

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Don't expect much.  No Mack trade or signing Aaron Jones.  Not happening.

 

This off season will be about 2 things. 

 

Taking care of own and cutting loose a few that will give us cap savings and that we have in house replacements for.  

 

And figuring out what Allen's contract will be. 

 

 

Then determining what all that means for 2022 and beyond.  

 

Am I right....we obviously have this run, then 2021 and 2022 before a big time QB contract kicks in?  Basically a 3 year window when we went into this season?  

I agree.  Due to the decrease in cap for 2021 I think Allen gets his 5th year option officially picked up but he has a new deal signed before we get to it.  The timing of the signing and/or payout structure will be such that the big cap hits start in the 2022 season.  That’ll give the team some flexibility next season.  It’d wreak havoc to have the first big hit in 2021 with a $175M cap.  That’s just not happening.  

[Seoulofstone]

10 hours ago, Simon said:

 

The only other info injury I saw about him was an ankle tweak that cost him a couple games back in his 2nd year. As for how the Panthers may have used him, I just don't get it. It simply doesn't reconcile with what we saw this year. He was absolutely dominant out there for nearly the entire season. Him and Dawkins both had a rough day on the same week (vs the Chargers I think?) but outside of that he was just stoning guys week after week after week. I'd be curious to see the Bills internal OLine grades cuz I don't think it would be difficult to make a case that he was the Bills best OLineman this season.

When you've got a talent like Josh Allen who's going to be your franchise for the next decade, letting your best OLineman walk right now would be criminal, imo.

 

 I agree that he has been very solid. He will want to be paid though. I don't mean in the 8m per range either. He hasn't yet had a big time NFL contract and teams will notice him after all these prime time showings.  He won't be giving discounts which fans inexplicably always expect. Not sure that the Bills can get into a bidding war in FA. They also have reached the stage in their life cycle where they must develop players and accept that they can't keep them all and let them make money elsewhere. 

 

9 hours ago, Doc said:

Finding a young, cheap alternative is much easier said than done.  And Williams was 2nd team All-Pro at RT in 2017.  When he returned in 2019, the Panthers oddly played him everywhere but RT (and C).  The Bills signed him and he's proven to be an excellent RT for them, and that's his position.

 

 True. Nothing in life is guaranteed. I get that people always want the sure thing. This year, of the PFF best rookie OLine 4 of the 5 players were drafted in the third round or later. People said the same thing of Shaq and Phillips last year too. It's part of being successful that fans need to get used to. 

[Dablitzkrieg]

1 hour ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

that McCoy guy worked out

 

Touche

[TPS]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I suspect this year they will have a net loss of free agents/cuts.  They will need to shed some dead weight like Murphy.

I'm fine with Knox and Smith and a mid-round rookie for TE.  

They need to spend money to bring back Williams and Milano.  Hopefully they can do both.  They won't have much left after that to spend .

My hunch is they will extend Allen this off-season but after the draft.  They will also pick up the fifth year option on Edmunds.  

It will be interesting to see what they do with Star.  A year away from the game, and who knows how he will come back.  They will shed at least 2 of the following three DL - Addison, Butler, and Jefferson (maybe all three).  I suspect they will bring in one FA DL, plan for Epenesa to start opposite Hughes, hope H Phillips is better an additional year removed from ACL surgery, and draft a true edge player.  

Wallace is a RFA and they will tender him either at the second round level or right of refusal/match level.  He was an UDFA so they can't use the original draft round designation.  Dane looks competent enough to be the 4th DB. I would not be surprised if they let him walk and try to get a comp pick in 2022.  

 

The two biggest salary dump questions will be, do the dump Morse? Brown?  Judging from how McD dealt with Morse/Feliciano after Morse had a concussion and knowing Ford is an option at either G or OT, I think Morse may be the surprise cut of free agency and they find a way to replace him in the draft.

 

My guess in the draft they will go - C, Edge, OT, TE, RB, and S and trade a pick or two away for next year.   Swap the order if Williams leaves and Morse stays.  

Star's cap hit in 2021 is $7.6 mil, with almost $12 mil in dead cap if he's cut--cutting him puts them in a worse cap situation.  Maybe they can get him to retire...Beane is going to earn his contract this year.

 

Btw, I think the first person the Bills re-sign is Feliciano, as the Bills put a high premium on process guys.

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by TPS

[May Day 10]

I wonder what is going to happen with backup QB.... and if maybe they could grab Andy Dalton at a decent price.  Just seems destined to be a Bill.  

[mjt328]

The Bills number one focus this offseason will be getting Josh Allen his long-term contract.

 

After that, deciding which Free Agents are the most important, and trying to replace the rest with cheaper options.  We've got a pretty lengthy list of guys to re-sign, including Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams.  Not to mention deciding on Tremaine Edmunds and his 5th Year Option.

 

Brandon Beane needs to decide which positions/players are the most important to our long-term success.  I don't get the impression that he values RB or TE high on that list, and is probably comfortable rolling with mid-round guys like Singletary/Moss/Knox.  

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

24 minutes ago, TPS said:

Star's cap hit in 2021 is $7.6 mil, with almost $12 mil in dead cap if he's cut--cutting him puts them in a worse cap situation.  Maybe they can get him to retire...Beane is going to earn his contract this year.

 

Btw, I think the first person the Bills re-sign is Feliciano, as the Bills put a high premium on process guys.

 

 

 

I think Star will come back and play.

Feliciano may be hurt by the lack of salary cap space around the league and may not have much of a market. I too think he will come back on a reasonable contract.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

10 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

I suspect this year they will have a net loss of free agents/cuts.  They will need to shed some dead weight like Murphy.

I'm fine with Knox and Smith and a mid-round rookie for TE.  

They need to spend money to bring back Williams and Milano.  Hopefully they can do both.  They won't have much left after that to spend .

My hunch is they will extend Allen this off-season but after the draft.  They will also pick up the fifth year option on Edmunds.  

It will be interesting to see what they do with Star.  A year away from the game, and who knows how he will come back.  They will shed at least 2 of the following three DL - Addison, Butler, and Jefferson (maybe all three).  I suspect they will bring in one FA DL, plan for Epenesa to start opposite Hughes, hope H Phillips is better an additional year removed from ACL surgery, and draft a true edge player.  

Wallace is a RFA and they will tender him either at the second round level or right of refusal/match level.  He was an UDFA so they can't use the original draft round designation.  Dane looks competent enough to be the 4th DB. I would not be surprised if they let him walk and try to get a comp pick in 2022.  

 

The two biggest salary dump questions will be, do the dump Morse? Brown?  Judging from how McD dealt with Morse/Feliciano after Morse had a concussion and knowing Ford is an option at either G or OT, I think Morse may be the surprise cut of free agency and they find a way to replace him in the draft.

 

My guess in the draft they will go - C, Edge, OT, TE, RB, and S and trade a pick or two away for next year.   Swap the order if Williams leaves and Morse stays.  

 

Agree with most of what you stated.  My order of pending FA signings would be Feleciano, Milano, then Williams. Would be fine with letting Morse go if means we can re-sign Williams.   Don't think they can afford to dump Star, but a year away and his high salary does worry me too.  Think they will keep Jefferson, Butler will likely be gone and would be fine with also cutting Addison if it meant bringing in a more pure edge rusher as do feel that is one thing the team could do better at.

 

Brown either needs to take a big cut to save cap money or likely cut him.

 

Would tender Wallace, Bojorquez, & Boettger as they come cheap.

 

Would also bring back Roberts, Marlowe, and T Jones.  There's a lot of debate about Barkley, one way or another they need a back up QB so the question is there someone better or cheaper to sign.  He didn't look too bad this week playing against a supposed top defense. 

 

Similar with Kroft, you need that person on the roster so if not him then who.  Not sure I like the idea of another rookie in that spot, maybe Sweeney has shown alot off the field that they feel he can fill that role?

 

All this TE talk or Ertz, etc, think is a waste of time.  Bringing in a much better TE just means less passes thrown to Diggs, Beasley, and others.  Allen finished the year about 1.5% below the season leader, that's about an extra 1/2 more pass completion per game, 5% below the all time leader which equates to about 1.25 more pass completions per game.  There's not enough passes available to worry about getting better at TE.

[SoCal Deek]

Here’s the question we hope we’ll be asking: After the Bills win the Super Bowl will players leave in search of big money having won a ring? And...will other players want to come (at a reasonable salary) hoping to get a ring next season? 😳

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Agree with most of what you stated.  My order of pending FA signings would be Feleciano, Milano, then Williams. Would be fine with letting Morse go if means we can re-sign Williams.   Don't think they can afford to dump Star, but a year away and his high salary does worry me too.  Think they will keep Jefferson, Butler will likely be gone and would be fine with also cutting Addison if it meant bringing in a more pure edge rusher as do feel that is one thing the team could do better at.

 

Brown either needs to take a big cut to save cap money or likely cut him.

 

Would tender Wallace, Bojorquez, & Boettger as they come cheap.

 

Would also bring back Roberts, Marlowe, and T Jones.  There's a lot of debate about Barkley, one way or another they need a back up QB so the question is there someone better or cheaper to sign.  He didn't look too bad this week playing against a supposed top defense. 

 

Similar with Kroft, you need that person on the roster so if not him then who.  Not sure I like the idea of another rookie in that spot, maybe Sweeney has shown alot off the field that they feel he can fill that role?

 

All this TE talk or Ertz, etc, think is a waste of time.  Bringing in a much better TE just means less passes thrown to Diggs, Beasley, and others.  Allen finished the year about 1.5% below the season leader, that's about an extra 1/2 more pass completion per game, 5% below the all time leader which equates to about 1.25 more pass completions per game.  There's not enough passes available to worry about getting better at TE.

Good take. Totally agree on TE assessment and I forgot about Sweeney. I’d probably still add another TE in the draft but it depends what happens in free agency. Beane has always drafted for need despite what he says. So I suspect again they will draft to fill holes. 
For the record, I still think Knox is going to be a star.  Just needs to be a little more consistent.

Lack of cap space around the league will hurt guys like Roberts. There probably won’t be too much demand for a pure returner. He has been great and hope he comes back, but they can always find a guy to return kicks if needed.

[Rochesterfan]

20 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills number one focus this offseason will be getting Josh Allen his long-term contract.

 

After that, deciding which Free Agents are the most important, and trying to replace the rest with cheaper options.  We've got a pretty lengthy list of guys to re-sign, including Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams.  Not to mention deciding on Tremaine Edmunds and his 5th Year Option.

 

Brandon Beane needs to decide which positions/players are the most important to our long-term success.  I don't get the impression that he values RB or TE high on that list, and is probably comfortable rolling with mid-round guys like Singletary/Moss/Knox.  

 

 

 

I don’t think so myself.  Josh still has year 4 and the 5th year option - so I don’t expect that is where the Bills start.  I think Josh knows what is coming and will be patient.
 

I think they figure out Williams, Mongo, and Milano first and then work to fill the roster with talent.  Once that is done - similar to Mahomes and White - Josh will get done late summer/training camp or just as the season starts as the Bills look to the 2022/2023 salary cap for extra relief.

Edited January 5, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[Domitian]

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Doubtful it will drop.  In fact, I'll bet it goes up from the $175 projected.

 

 

Finding a young, cheap alternative is much easier said than done.  And Williams was 2nd team All-Pro at RT in 2017.  When he returned in 2019, the Panthers oddly played him everywhere but RT (and C).  The Bills signed him and he's proven to be an excellent RT for them, and that's his position.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2021-nfl-salary-cap-conundrum-three-major-consequences-of-projected-decrease

 

TL:DR - Current best guess is that it drops to $176,000,000, which would be a decrease of $22,000,000 from this season.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

The Bills number one focus this offseason will be getting Josh Allen his long-term contract.

 

After that, deciding which Free Agents are the most important, and trying to replace the rest with cheaper options.  We've got a pretty lengthy list of guys to re-sign, including Matt Milano, Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams.  Not to mention deciding on Tremaine Edmunds and his 5th Year Option.

 

Brandon Beane needs to decide which positions/players are the most important to our long-term success.  I don't get the impression that he values RB or TE high on that list, and is probably comfortable rolling with mid-round guys like Singletary/Moss/Knox.  

 

 

 

Agree with signing him to a contract, but look at the Mahomes deal that he signed last July. It was an extension so the 2020 hit was not very large $5.3 mil.  The big numbers kick in in 2021 and beyond.  So if the Bills did the same with Allen, his cap hit in 2021 should also be in that range.  Therefore some money left for signings and I'm assuming the cap will go up to the rumored $190 mil.  That would leave the Bills about $20 mil over.  Need to keep about $5 mil for draft picks, another $3 to $5 mil for rainy day mid year signing fund, leaves $10 mil plus any cuts/extensions for FA  which I can see them shedding around $30 to $35 mil

 

46 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Good take. Totally agree on TE assessment and I forgot about Sweeney. I’d probably still add another TE in the draft but it depends what happens in free agency. Beane has always drafted for need despite what he says. So I suspect again they will draft to fill holes. 
For the record, I still think Knox is going to be a star.  Just needs to be a little more consistent.

Lack of cap space around the league will hurt guys like Roberts. There probably won’t be too much demand for a pure returner. He has been great and hope he comes back, but they can always find a guy to return kicks if needed.

 

Agree with you on Knox and even if he doesn't become a star, they don't use the TE that much. 

 

The other thing with a guy like Roberts, if they bumped his salary by 50% would still be under $3.5 mil so easier to afford good players at low cost positions.

 

I figure too the Bills likely will be drafting no lower than 25, good change around 29 to 32 range.  To me the two biggest needs are #2 CB and edge rusher.  At low of a pick IMO less risk in picking a CB that can start immediately than an edge rusher as that is a longer learning curve.  Would more try to find a FA signing there using the saving from cutting Butler and Addison as those two add up to around $15 mil

 

I think they'll retain two of the three between Feleciano, Morse & Williams so would draft in the 2nd round whichever they don't sign, kind of hoping it's Morse as easier to find an inside guy in round 2 than a tackle.  I'd also draft a 2nd lineman maybe around the 5th round too.

 

The other position I'd look to draft at fairly high would be LB

[Magox]

I just don't see the Bills making any significant FA moves this year.  Priority one is managing the cap for the eventual huge cap hit of Josh Allen and re signing the most critical players to the success of this team, along with having continued success through the draft.

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

I just don't see the Bills making any significant FA moves this year.  Priority one is managing the cap for the eventual huge cap hit of Josh Allen and re signing the most critical players to the success of this team, along with having continued success through the draft.

Beane has it set up nicely, as a ton of $ is coming off the books in 2022.  They shouldn't have any problems signing Allen and Edmunds to long-term contracts.

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

Beane has it set up nicely, as a ton of $ is coming off the books in 2022.  They shouldn't have any problems signing Allen and Edmunds to long-term contracts.

 

Yes they have, but there are some tough decisions coming up such as Daryl Williams and Milano.  These guys will most likely command over $10M a year.

[Big Gun]

Honestly, i'm enjoying this ride right now so I don't give a rats arse about off season moves, could care less right now. 

 

[Bangarang]

I wonder if the Chiefs will take Kroft for Kielce straight up? They’d probably have to throw in a late round pick to sweeten the deal. 

[BuffaloBill]

18 hours ago, gotme365 said:

You want to give up a 1st for a RB coming off an acl tear and 1 year left on his rookie deal? Count me out on that..I wouldn’t mind Ertz. He’d help take the offense to a new level

 

 

Amen - look at the drought - chasing RB talent with premium picks is a losing proposition. Remember on Sunday we got a little excited over some good play from an UDFA running back? The Bills would be idiots to make the proposed trade.

[drumizen]

18 hours ago, Adamb412 said:

I know we are humming along but I think in the off season there is a few upgrades we have to make and here is what I think we can do 

 

Zach ertz 

Im not sure what his deal is but he is obviously talented and I think he would take our offense to the next level. 

 

NY Giants

 

Look I don't know what the giants are doing but I propose this 

 

Singletary  and our 1st round pick for Saquon.  Obviously Saquon would be a huge upgrade and we have Zack moss and other depth at RB. I think they would listen...

 

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

 

NO for Saquon!! Do NOT pay running backs. Trading for him in his third season after a season ending injury would be nuts. Draft one in the fourth round every year until one hits.