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Playoff Matchup Probability

cv05

By cv05
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cv05 UDFA

cv05

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This site is pretty cool - updated already with the 1 o'clock games.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

 

Here are the probabilities of who we'll match up against:

 

(5)Dolphins 10 5 0 43% 43% X
(8)Colts 10 5 0 27% 27% X
(6)Ravens 10 5 0 17% 17% X
(7)Browns 10 5 0 8% 8% X
(4)Titans 10 4 0 6% 6% X

 

After the Browns, I honestly can't decide who my first choice is. Dolphins probably, but division games are tough and they have been giving us a challenge. I might rather have the Colts. Regardless, It's looking like a 70% chance its one of those two. I want nothing to do with the Titans or the Ravens. 

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cv05
cv05

This site is pretty cool - updated already with the 1 o'clock games. http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html   Here are the probabilities of who we'll match up against:

MJS
MJS

Anyone but the Ravens and Titans. Those two are a cut above the others.

The Red King
The Red King

After the early games the AFC wild card situation is an absolute mess with four teams tied at 10-5.  It's not only a toss up as to who makes it in, but also where.  Week 17 just got a lot more fun to

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ALLEN1QB Veteran

ALLEN1QB

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  On 12/27/2020 at 9:51 PM, cv05 said:

This site is pretty cool - updated already with the 1 o'clock games.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

 

Here are the probabilities of who we'll match up against:

 

(5)Dolphins 10 5 0 43% 43% X
(8)Colts 10 5 0 27% 27% X
(6)Ravens 10 5 0 17% 17% X
(7)Browns 10 5 0 8% 8% X
(4)Titans 10 4 0 6% 6% X

 

After the Browns, I honestly can't decide who my first choice is. Dolphins probably, but division games are tough and they have been giving us a challenge. I might rather have the Colts. Regardless, It's looking like a 70% chance its one of those two. I want nothing to do with the Titans or the Ravens. 

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I'm with you! Lets hope for a blustery day Fish or Colts will be in trouble.

The Red King Veteran

The Red King

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Posted

After the early games the AFC wild card situation is an absolute mess with four teams tied at 10-5.  It's not only a toss up as to who makes it in, but also where.  Week 17 just got a lot more fun to watch.

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cv05 UDFA

cv05

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  On 12/27/2020 at 10:36 PM, The Red King said:

After the early games the AFC wild card situation is an absolute mess with four teams tied at 10-5.  It's not only a toss up as to who makes it in, but also where.  Week 17 just got a lot more fun to watch.

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Yeah, it's pretty wild how it's all shaping up. The AFC is a shark tank. Lots of good, solid teams

Miyagi-Do Karate Hall of Famer

Miyagi-Do Karate

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  On 12/27/2020 at 9:51 PM, cv05 said:

This site is pretty cool - updated already with the 1 o'clock games.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html

 

Here are the probabilities of who we'll match up against:

 

(5)Dolphins 10 5 0 43% 43% X
(8)Colts 10 5 0 27% 27% X
(6)Ravens 10 5 0 17% 17% X
(7)Browns 10 5 0 8% 8% X
(4)Titans 10 4 0 6% 6% X

 

After the Browns, I honestly can't decide who my first choice is. Dolphins probably, but division games are tough and they have been giving us a challenge. I might rather have the Colts. Regardless, It's looking like a 70% chance its one of those two. I want nothing to do with the Titans or the Ravens. 

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this is interesting, but ultimately unreliable given how many week 17 games are total toss-ups. I could see titans/Texans, bills/dolphins, and Steelers/browns going either way. All division games.
 

that said, I believe a browns win will provide a clear path to us likely playing them or the Colts in the 2-7 game. 

cv05 UDFA

cv05

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  On 12/27/2020 at 11:06 PM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


this is interesting, but ultimately unreliable given how many week 17 games are total toss-ups. I could see titans/Texans, bills/dolphins, and Steelers/browns going either way. All division games.
 

that said, I believe a browns win will provide a clear path to us likely playing them or the Colts in the 2-7 game. 

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Well, it's not unreliable. There are just lots of possible outcomes. The Browns are the 2nd least likely outcome. 

  On 12/27/2020 at 11:02 PM, dma0034 said:

How they are listed: Dolphins, Colts, Ravens, Browns, Titans is exactly the order of who I want the Bills to play in the first round

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Agreed mostly. It's shaping up pretty good for the bills if you ask me

BillsFan130 All Pro

BillsFan130

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  On 12/27/2020 at 11:19 PM, Process said:

Hopefully packers win, we clinch at least the 3 seed with a win tomorrow, can rest starters week 17 and let the rest fall into place. 

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You would rest the starters with a 2 seed on the line?

 

Im not sure I would. I know it’s not the same as the past with the bye week/packed stadium, but it’s still potentially an extra game at home. 

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singlezero Probation

singlezero

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  On 12/27/2020 at 11:19 PM, Process said:

Hopefully packers win, we clinch at least the 3 seed with a win tomorrow, can rest starters week 17 and let the rest fall into place. 

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yes i think  the best thing is  to make  sure  we knock  the  dolphins  out . we let them  win        with  resting our starters and it  might  bite  us  in  the  rear  in the first round

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CLTbills Veteran

CLTbills

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  On 12/27/2020 at 10:23 PM, RiotAct said:

could you imagine Tua throwing more than 8 or 9 yards downfield on a cold, windy day in Orchard Park?

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No, but I could imagine Fitz doing so... and Flores has shown multiple times he has no problem yanking Tua for Fitz.

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Dkollidas RFA

Dkollidas

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  On 12/27/2020 at 11:40 PM, Max Fischer said:

I’m pretty sure If the Bills win out, they will not play the Ravens nor Titans in the 1st round. 

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That would be optimal... and hopefully the Titans and Ravens would play each other... get at least one of them out of the way.
Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami and Indianapolis do not scare me much. 

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Max Fischer Veteran

Max Fischer

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  On 12/27/2020 at 11:58 PM, Dkollidas said:

That would be optimal... and hopefully the Titans and Ravens would play each other... get at least one of them out of the way.
Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Miami and Indianapolis do not scare me much. 

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I should have added, this assumes Ravens beat Cincy and Titans win either at GB or Hou. On second thought, there are too many variables but still think it’s best Bills win out. 

Da webster guy Veteran

Da webster guy

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Posted
  On 12/27/2020 at 11:21 PM, BillsFan130 said:

You would rest the starters with a 2 seed on the line?

 

Im not sure I would. I know it’s not the same as the past with the bye week/packed stadium, but it’s still potentially an extra game at home. 

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Wish the league wld Flex us vs Miami to late game in case Pitt loses we would clinch 2 seed before kickoff assuming we beat Pats tmrw.

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