Joe Marino on "Under the Radar" Superlative= Tackling

[JESSEFEFFER]

Joe made 2020 season superlative projections in his podcast today.  For the "Under the Radar" problem/possible improvement he picked the Bills poor tackling in 2018 and 2019 which is an interesting topic.  While the defense has been near the top in fewest points per drive (ppd) they are also #3 in missed tackles in 2019 and they actually had more in 2018.   Normally, good defense correlates with good tackling.  So there is something different about how the Bills play defense in that regard.  The numbers he cited were 132 missed for the Bills @ #2 and and only 66 for the Pats at #1 in ppd.  The only team in the top 10 of ppd but top 16 in missed tackles were the Titans at 10th/13th.  He cites average as around 110.  Some thoughts without really having any data to back it up it might be that:

 

-Good hustling, rally to the ball defenders cover for missed tackles to thereby mitigate the damage.

-Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary.  A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right?

-Milano and Edmunds are undersized and/or young and many are missed due to poor pursuit angles that allow runners to rip through arm tackles.

-This has to be a big part of why the RZ defense struggled.

 

 

So we can add this to reasons why defensive regression is less probable.  They were not historically great at sacks or takeaways (which makes regression to mean likely as it was for the 2018 Jags and 2019 Bears) not much turnover in personnel/coaching and now add that missed tackles are hopefully going to go down.  Or maybe due to lack of preseason games the Bills might only just get better relative to the rest of the league.

[Johnnycage46]

18 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Joe made 2020 season superlative projections in his podcast today.  For the "Under the Radar" problem/possible improvement he picked the Bills poor tackling in 2018 and 2019 which is an interesting topic.  While the defense has been near the top in fewest points per drive (ppd) they are also #3 in missed tackles in 2019 and they actually had more in 2018.   Normally, good defense correlates with good tackling.  So there is something different about how the Bills play defense in that regard.  The numbers he cited were 132 missed for the Bills @ #2 and and only 66 for the Pats at #1 in ppd.  The only team in the top 10 of ppd but top 16 in missed tackles were the Titans at 10th/13th.  He cites average as around 110.  Some thoughts without really having any data to back it up it might be that:

 

-Good hustling, rally to the ball defenders cover for missed tackles to thereby mitigate the damage.

-Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary.  A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right?

-Milano and Edmunds are undersized and/or young and many are missed due to poor pursuit angles that allow runners to rip through arm tackles.

-This has to be a big part of why the RZ defense struggled.

 

 

So we can add this to reasons why defensive regression is less probable.  They were not historically great at sacks or takeaways (which makes regression to mean likely as it was for the 2018 Jags and 2019 Bears) not much turnover in personnel/coaching and now add that missed tackles are hopefully going to go down.  Or maybe due to lack of preseason games the Bills might only just get better relative to the rest of the league.

 

Interesting info.  I would imagine with a modified off-season missed tackling might be up across the league this year.

[MJS]

It has definately been a problem. I think it is an area that can be improved with good fundamentals training and focus. And a big part of it is Edmunds and Milano continuing to progress and make fewer mental errors.

 

Milano, despite his size, does make a lot of good tackles. He just need to be more consistent. Edmunds needs to play faster and let his instincts play a bigger part. He has been wrapped up in the mental game. Once he gets that down he should be able to play more free.

[thebandit27]

The focus here should be on the DL.

 

Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles.

 

 The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019.

[Mickey]

I think being 10th in TO differential helped. We didn't turn the ball over all that much so the defense rarely had to defend a short field.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The focus here should be on the DL.

 

Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles.

 

 The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019.

 

Yeah - I never perceived Milano and Edmunds as being the culprits of our missed tackles woes. I always thought the interior DL was the real problem, but that includes Star. 

[marky]

Do special teams count in that number? One team kicks out of the endzone, other team kicks to the 1 yard line could mean +50 missed tackles a year.

Edited July 21, 2020 by beavis

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Yeah - I never perceived Milano and Edmunds as being the culprits of our missed tackles woes. I always thought the interior DL was the real problem, but that includes Star. 

Star has missed a total of 3 tackles since 2018

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Star has missed a total of 3 tackles since 2018

 

Well, I mean, I guess if stats and facts are important to you then...

 

That is interesting, for real. Do you have the breakdown for our D? 

Edited July 21, 2020 by JoshAllenHasBigHands

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Well, I mean, I guess if stats and facts are important to you then...

 

That is interesting, for real. Do you have the breakdown for our D? 

?

 

I use pro football reference advanced defense stats. Lots of good stuff there.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

?

 

I use pro football reference advanced defense stats. Lots of good stuff there.

 

Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. 

 

Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. 

 

Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. 

 

Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense.  Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds.  The missed tackles sort of adds to that point. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. 

 

Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. 

 

Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. 

 

Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense.  Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds.  The missed tackles sort of adds to that point. 

Agreed. Taron Johnson and Hyde also had issues.

[CSBill]

I remember three missed tackles of Deshaun Watson on that game winning play in the play-off game.

Edited July 22, 2020 by CSBill

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

39 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The focus here should be on the DL.

 

Shaq and Jordan Phillips missed a TON of tackles.

 

 The guys they added to replace them—Jefferson, Addison, and Butler—missed a total of 4 in 2019.

 

Yeah - if they can be adequate replacements from a pass rushiing perspective, plus improvement from oliver.  The defense as a whole should improve.  Already near the top in many passing stats, it was the run defense that cost the team a few games midseason.

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Wow. Shaq had 7; Phillips had 8; Edmunds had 12; Milano had 16. 

 

Here is how I look at those numbers. Shaq and Phillips were a REAL problem. They saw the field far less than Edmunds and Milano, and when the did, had farrrrr fewer opportunities for tackles. 7 and 8 is a TON for their respective positions. 

 

Edmunds seems right. I don't know where 12 ranks; however, as the MLB, he is in the middle of so many plays. I expect him to be at about 12. 

 

Milano is also high. He made 15 fewer tackles on the year than Edmunds, but missed 4 more tackles. That seems like it is creeping too high. People love praising Milano, but I always thought that he, and to a lesser extent Phillips, were the primary culprits of our bad run defense.  Milano was out of position far more than Edmunds.  The missed tackles sort of adds to that point. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Put together a quick pivot table to dissect the #s.  Took top 300 players on the list, sorted for games started 10 or more.  Broke it down by position.

 

Hughes, Lawson, Taron, Jordan Phillips were the worst in missed tackle % as defined by Pro Football Reference.  

 

Milano's % was a little above average for ALL linebackers which includes some edge rushers at 13.6% while Tremaine's % was below average at 9.8%

 Average was 11.0%. New guys: AJ Klein was 9.2%, Mario Addison is a shocking 2.9%, while Quinton Jefferson is on the high side at 16.1%.

 

Hyde, TreDavious,  Levi, and Kevin Johnson all compared similarly and slightly above average relative to all defensive backs coming in between 13% and 14%.  Poyer at 7.8% was much lower than the 12.3% average.

 

Hughes, Lawson, and Phillips were WAY above the average of 13.8%.  DE, DT, and NT was the only positional group with a meaningful spread between average of 13.8% and median of 12.4%.  Star was almost exactly average, Murphy was right there at the median, and Lorenzo at 9.8% was below. Oliver at 6.5% was way below average.  Vernon Butler is a 5.9%.

Edited July 21, 2020 by Jauronimo

[RoyBatty is alive]

10 minutes ago, CSBill said:

I remember three missed tackles on Deshaun Watson on that game winning play in the play-off game.

 

With both Milano and Siran Neal on top of Watson at the same time.  I am not really sure the Bills were as terrible as it looked or D Watson just made an incredible play for the ages.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

 

-Missed tackles by the front 7 are covered up by a good tackling secondary.  A poor tackling secondary would have to lead to more points, right?

 

 

 

Yes.

 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

27 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Those are great stats, the % of missed tackles by Milano & Hughes and Jordan is stunning, according to those stats they  missed more than 1 out of every 5 tackles. Milano is undersized and used a lot in coverage so i can believe that but for Phillipsand Hughes  to miss that many is ridiculous.

Edited July 21, 2020 by RoyBatty is alive

[Jauronimo]

10 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Those are great stats, the % of missed tackles by Milano and Jordan is stunning, according to those stats they both missed more than 1 out of every 5 tackles. Milano is undersized and used a lot in coverage so i can believe that but for Phillips to miss that many is ridiculous.

I pasted the data into excel for a better breakdown by position.  The results were interesting on a missed tackle % basis by position group.  See above for updated post.

[thebandit27]

35 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Put together a quick pivot table to dissect the #s.  Took top 300 players on the list, sorted for games started 10 or more.  Broke it down by position.

 

Hughes, Lawson, Taron, Jordan Phillips were the worst in missed tackle % as defined by Pro Football Reference.  

 

Milano's % was a little above average for ALL linebackers which includes some edge rushersat 13.6% while Tremaine's % was below average at 9.8%

 Average was 11.0%.

 

Hyde, TreDavious,  Levi, and Kevin Johnson all compared similarly and slightly above average relative to all defensive backs coming in between 13% and 14%.  Poyer at 7.8% was much lower than the 12.3% average.

 

Hughes, Lawson, and Phillips were WAY above the average of 13.8%.  DE, DT, and NT was the only positional group with a meaningful spread between average of 13.8% and median of 12.4%.  Murphy was right there at the median and Lorenzo at 9.8% was below. Oliver at 6.5% was way below average.

Good stuff.

 

The encouraging thing is that the staff was acutely aware and made addressing it a priority.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

39 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm

 

Put together a quick pivot table to dissect the #s.  Took top 300 players on the list, sorted for games started 10 or more.  Broke it down by position.

 

Hughes, Lawson, Taron, Jordan Phillips were the worst in missed tackle % as defined by Pro Football Reference.  

 

Milano's % was a little above average for ALL linebackers which includes some edge rushersat 13.6% while Tremaine's % was below average at 9.8%

 Average was 11.0%.

 

Hyde, TreDavious,  Levi, and Kevin Johnson all compared similarly and slightly above average relative to all defensive backs coming in between 13% and 14%.  Poyer at 7.8% was much lower than the 12.3% average.

 

Hughes, Lawson, and Phillips were WAY above the average of 13.8%.  DE, DT, and NT was the only positional group with a meaningful spread between average of 13.8% and median of 12.4%.  Murphy was right there at the median and Lorenzo at 9.8% was below. Oliver at 6.5% was way below average.

 

This seems right. I especially appreciate the averages. I expect the DBs to miss tackles. They are smaller. They are going to get dragged, and guys are going to break those tackles.  I knew Phillips was bad, but Lawson and Hughes really surprised me. But, perception/reality. That whole thing. 

 

Most important, the focus by the coaching staff to bring in DL really illustrates that they are aware that our DL's tackling was well below average.  Super good sign. 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

3 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Star has missed a total of 3 tackles since 2018

 

But... But... But I've heard, right here, on TBD, from the experts, that Star is terrible, and a waste of money. How... Oh, how can that factual stat about Star be true?
 

[rayray808]

Joe is the man! I appreciate all that he does

[Punching Bag]

10 hours ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

But... But... But I've heard, right here, on TBD, from the experts, that Star is terrible, and a waste of money. How... Oh, how can that factual stat about Star be true?
 

 

Well maybe he only attempts to make tackles when he is fairly confident he will be able to do it like a QB not taking chances when throwing ball?

15 minutes ago, rayray808 said:

Joe is the man! I appreciate all that he does

 

Yeah is a good joe.

[Big Turk]

Its been an issue to some degree but since we rally to the ball so well many times those missed tackles result in the ballcarrier having to slow down or make extra moves which allow the other defenders to get there and make the tackle which ends up not hurting them.

 

Now if the other defenders can't get there in time then it becomes a problem but as of right now it's not a huge problem.

 

I would bet if they had a stat that showed yardage gained after broken tackles the Bills would be near the best at allowing the least yardage after broken tackles

Edited July 22, 2020 by matter2003

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Its been an issue to some degree but since we rally to the ball so well many times those missed tackles result in the ballcarrier having to slow down or make extra moves which allow the other defenders to get there and make the tackle which ends up not hurting them.

 

Now if the other defenders can't get there in time then it becomes a problem but as of right now it's not a huge problem.

 

I would bet if they had a stat that showed yardage gained after broken tackles the Bills would be near the best at allowing the least yardage after broken tackles

The Bills missed more tackles than all but 2 other teams in 2019; they had more than twice as many missed tackles as NE******
 

It’s definitely a problem.

 

As for YBC vs YAC, I don’t see any numbers on that. I can say, however, that a look back to games against Philly and Washington doesn’t support the theory posited in your last paragraph.

[TigerJ]

Edmunds made a ton of tackles, so it may be that the percentage of missed tackles isn't that high.  Definitely room for improvement though.   Milano, with fewer total tackles and more missed tackles is something that needs to get better.  As has been mentioned, the missed tackles by Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips despite limited playing time means their departure is "addition by subtraction" at least in that category, though Phillips was pretty disruptive in the pass rush.