The Way Too Early Over Under Topic

[FireChans]

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5th in points allowed

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5th in points scored

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5

 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by FireChans

[Virgil]

16-0 reg season

19-0 full season 

 

That’s the expectation going forward.  Don’t care about the score or stats so long as the players are happy with their contributions 

[FireChans]

Just now, Virgil said:

16-0 reg season

19-0 full season 

 

That’s the expectation going forward.  Don’t care about the score or stats so long as the players are happy with their contributions 

So over in win totals. That’s one at least.

 

I don’t care if the players are miserable with their contributions as long as we win the Super Bowl, personally. If Stefon Diggs is mad about his targets up 40 in Tampa, so be it.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Over. (wins)

Under.  (Allen TDs)

Under.  (Diggs yds.)

Under.  (Singletary yds.)

Over.  (Oliver sacks)

Over.  (D points allowed)

Over.  (O points scored)

Under.  (McD challenges)

Under.  (Daboll's dome)

Over.  (Division wins)

A well rounded effort, making individual milestones less likely.  4 Allen games over 300 yards passing.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Ridgewaycynic2013
recap

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5 O

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 O

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards O

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage O

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks O

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed U

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored O

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 O

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 O

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 U

 

 

 

 

Just to be clear on where they will rank I have  them outside of the top 3 in points allowed defensively and inside the top 15 in points scored.

[Orlando Tim]

I think 30 total TDs is really low if you expect him to improve- he had 29 last year and he started slow. I expect 38 total TDs 30 in the air and 8 on the ground.

I expect 12 wins with 5 in the division.

I certainly expect a better D but as for individual numbers I do not want to predict because I expect us to up a few games by 24 and the other team to put up 200 yard 4th quarters, ruining us statistically. 

Lastly I expect our offense to spread the wealth so I expect 4 guys with 600 yard but doubt any get to 1000

[Jauronimo]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5 - Over (10 wins)

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 - Under 

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards - Over

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage - Over

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks - Over

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed - (Over as 4th or 5th)

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored - (Under, 12th)

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 - Under 

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 - Over

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 - Over (5 -1 in division)

 

 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I think 30 total TDs is really low if you expect him to improve- he had 29 last year and he started slow. I expect 38 total TDs 30 in the air and 8 on the ground.

I expect 12 wins with 5 in the division.

I certainly expect a better D but as for individual numbers I do not want to predict because I expect us to up a few games by 24 and the other team to put up 200 yard 4th quarters, ruining us statistically. 

Lastly I expect our offense to spread the wealth so I expect 4 guys with 600 yard but doubt any get to 1000

To be honest, that number was the one I struggled most with, but I used it for a number of reasons.

 

Josh Allen had 9 rushing TD’s last year, most of them in red zone situations. Our RB’s had 2 each. I expect expanded roles for both players, and their rushing TD totals to increase, vulturing a few from Josh. I could see Josh having 25 passing TD’s and only 4-5 rushing TD’s. 

 

30 TD’s would still comfortably have him in the top 10 last season among QB’s as well.

Edited April 27, 2020 by FireChans

[Orlando Tim]

Just now, FireChans said:

To be honest, that number was the one I struggled most with, but I used it for a number of reasons.

 

Josh Allen had 9 rushing TD’s last year, most of them in red zone situations. Our RB’s had 2 each. I expect expanded roles for both players, and their rushing TD totals to increase, vulturing a few from Josh. I could see Josh having 25 passing TD’s and only 4-5 rushing TD’s. 

I was completely unaware he had the majority of our rushing TDs- your number makes a ton of sense now. Good work.

[Gugny]

Bills wins o/u 9.5 - OVER

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 - UNDER

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards - UNDER

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage - OVER (edited same day - originally thought it was rushing yards)

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks - OVER

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed - UNDER

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored - OVER

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 - OVER

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 - OVER

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 - OVER

Edited April 27, 2020 by Gugny

[JP's Voice]

40 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5

 

 

 

 

Over

Over

Under

Over

Over

Over

Under

Under

Under

Over

[RiotAct]

Over.  I think we’ll finish the regular season with the same record as last year (10-6).

 

EDIT: whoops I only read the first part... ha.

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5 OVER

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 UNDER

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards OVER

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage UNDER

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks OVER

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed OVER (is this their ranking, or PPG?  lol.  Either way, over).

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored UNDER (meaning, their RANKING will be 14th or better)

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5. OVER

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 WAYYYYY OVER

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 UNDER

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by RiotAct

[FireChans]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5 Under

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 Under

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards Under

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage Under

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks Over

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed Under (better than 4)

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored Over (worse than 14th)

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 Over

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 Over

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 Under

 

 

 

 

I guess I should give my picks. 

 

Simply put, I don’t see ten wins on the schedule, I see too much spreading for any player on offense to truly stand out, Ed Oliver arrives as Aaron Donald 2.0, Bills defense doesn’t miss a beat, offense still sputters at times, and we split with the Jets and Pats.

Edited April 27, 2020 by FireChans

[GreggTX]

8-8 plus the improvement we get from Josh Allen, if any. He's the key. I'm also hoping we get better play from our CB's behind TW.

[y2zipper]

Wins -- Over 9.5 (I think 10)

Allen Total TDs (Over 30)

Diggs -- over 1,000 Yards (Brown did this last year.)

Singletary -- Over 1,000 yards from scrimmage -- (800 Rushing and 200 receiving with a little more volume)

Oliver Sacks -- Under 6.5 (But 6 is a good number)

Offense will be a little worse than 14.5 in points scored (Like 15 or 16, though.)

Defense -- I'd bet Buffalo is top 3 in PA.

I'll take over on divisional wins because there's 5 there.

 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5 Over

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 Under

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards Over

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage Over

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks Under

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed Over

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored Over

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 Over

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 Over

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 Under

 

I'm confused by the offensive and defensive points per game. Why is defense at 3.5? And why is the offense so low at 14.5?

 

Edit: with clarification about rankings vs what it says.

Edited April 27, 2020 by MJS

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

 

I'm confused by the offensive and defensive points per game. Why is defense at 3.5? And why is the offense so low at 14.5?

Ranking. Not number of points lol.

[MJS]

Just now, FireChans said:

Ranking. Not number of points lol.

Oh, well it doesn't say that.

[FireChans]

Just now, MJS said:

Oh, well it doesn't say that.

I didn’t think anyone would think our defense would hold teams to less than 3 points per game. Or less than 3 points total on the year.

[MJS]

Just now, FireChans said:

I didn’t think anyone would think our defense would hold teams to less than 3 points per game. Or less than 3 points total on the year.

They wouldn't. Which is why it was a strange thing I asked about.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

They wouldn't. Which is why it was a strange thing I asked about.

If only there was another number that might have made sense, that literally every other poster in the thread was able to deduce on their own.

 

Very well, I will edit the OP and humor you.

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If only there was another number that might have made sense, that literally every other poster in the thread was able to deduce on their own.

 

Very well, I will edit the OP and humor you.

Nope, there were others who made comments about it too.

[Mr. WEO]

Why are so many taking "under" for JA TDs?

 

This list Is kind of bogus:

 

Allen had 29 TDs last year (O/U is only 30.5)

 

Singletary had nearly 1000 yards last year (and hardly played), Diggs had 1100 last year and over 1000 the year before.

 

They will all hit those numbers because they really aren't that tough to beat.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, MJS said:

Nope, there were others who made comments about it too.

I didn’t see anyone not figure it out it meant ranking. But like I said, for those of you who found defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed terribly confusing, I edited the OP.

[MJS]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

Why are so many taking "under" for JA TDs?

 

This list Is kind of bogus:

 

Allen had 29 TDs last year (O/U is only 30.5)

 

Singletary had nearly 1000 yards last year (and hardly played), Diggs had 1100 last year and over 1000 the year before.

 

They will all hit those numbers because they really aren't that tough to beat.

I expect Allen to not have as many rushing TD's this year due to having more options to pass the ball and not needing to scramble as much. I expect about 30 TD's total for him with only 4 or 5 of them rushing TD's, so just slightly under the 30.5.

 

Singletary might be part of a committee. Moss might take a lot of snaps, but I still took the over. Diggs is in a new system, but yeah, I expect him to get more than 1000.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

Why are so many taking "under" for JA TDs?

 

This list Is kind of bogus:

 

Allen had 29 TDs last year (O/U is only 30.5)

 

Singletary had nearly 1000 yards last year (and hardly played), Diggs had 1100 last year and over 1000 the year before.

 

They will all hit those numbers because they really aren't that tough to beat.

Because Josh had 7 more rushing TD’s than our RB’s each individually. I see his rushing TD’s dropping.

 

Fair point about Singletary actually, I didn’t realize he had 200 yards recieving. I probably should have just done rushing total.

 

Diggs well, we’ll see. We can revisit the topic next year and see what was what. 

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I didn’t see anyone not figure it out it meant ranking. But like I said, for those of you who found defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed terribly confusing, I edited the OP.

You seem stressed.

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Gugny said:

Bills wins o/u 9.5 - OVER

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5 - UNDER

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards - UNDER

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage - OVER (edited same day - originally thought it was rushing yards)

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks - OVER

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5 in points allowed - UNDER

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5 in points scored - OVER

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5 - OVER

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5 - OVER

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5 - OVER

Just for anyone keeping score, Gugny edited all these at the conclusion of the 2020 season.

[MJS]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

16-0 reg season

19-0 full season 

 

That’s the expectation going forward.  Don’t care about the score or stats so long as the players are happy with their contributions 

What if we win the Superbowl but one of the players isn't happy with his contribution?

[Mr. WEO]

57 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Because Josh had 7 more rushing TD’s than our RB’s each individually. I see his rushing TD’s dropping.

 

Fair point about Singletary actually, I didn’t realize he had 200 yards recieving. I probably should have just done rushing total.

 

Diggs well, we’ll see. We can revisit the topic next year and see what was what. 

 

If JA's passing TDs' don't rise as equally as his rushing TDs drop, something vey bad happened.  He only had 20 passing TDs...

59 minutes ago, MJS said:

I expect Allen to not have as many rushing TD's this year due to having more options to pass the ball and not needing to scramble as much. I expect about 30 TD's total for him with only 4 or 5 of them rushing TD's, so just slightly under the 30.5.

 

Singletary might be part of a committee. Moss might take a lot of snaps, but I still took the over. Diggs is in a new system, but yeah, I expect him to get more than 1000.

 

See above.  If he only has 25-26 passing TDs the Offense will have the same scoring difficulties.  This team was top 8 in rushing yards, 18th in TDs.

[Virgil]

59 minutes ago, MJS said:

What if we win the Superbowl but one of the players isn't happy with his contribution?

 

They wouldn't be because they all trust the process and the subsequent culture ?

[Freddie's Dead]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5th in points allowed

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5th in points scored

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5

 

 

 

 

 

I'll take the ovaries across the board.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

If JA's passing TDs' don't rise as equally as his rushing TDs drop, something vey bad happened.  He only had 20 passing TDs...

 

See above.  If he only has 25-26 passing TDs the Offense will have the same scoring difficulties.  This team was top 8 in rushing yards, 18th in TDs.

If he passes for 26 TD's that would have made him top 10 last year. Aaron Rodgers threw for 26 TD's and had 13 wins. Rodgers had one rushing TD. I am failing to see what you are talking about.

[Mr. WEO]

41 minutes ago, MJS said:

If he passes for 26 TD's that would have made him top 10 last year. Aaron Rodgers threw for 26 TD's and had 13 wins. Rodgers had one rushing TD. I am failing to see what you are talking about.

 

25-26 TDs by JA will not get them to 13 wins.

 

The FO didn't just go all in on Offense for 5 more passing TDs over 16 games.  You don't fail to see that, I think....

[Vod Kanockers]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

Go on record!

 

Bills wins o/u 9.5

 

Josh Allen Total TDs o/u 30.5

 

Stefon Diggs o/u 1000.5 yards

 

Devin Singletary o/u 1000.5 yards from scrimmage

 

Ed Oliver o/u 6.5 sacks

 

Bills defense o/u 3.5th in points allowed

 

Bills offense o/u 14.5th in points scored

 

McD challenges lost o/u 3.5

 

Shots of Brian Daboll rubbing his head o/u 5.5

 

Bills divisional wins o/u 4.5

 

 

 

 

over 9.5 wins

under 30 JA TD’s

Over Diggs 1k

under Singletary 1k

Oliver BARELY over 6.5

Bills D over 3.5 (6/7th) (Team) total points allowed 

Bills O over 14.5 (10th) (Team) points scored

McD challenges WAY over 3.5 lost

Division wins =4

[GoBills808]

Can’t see the over in wins w the under on Allen TDs personally

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

25-26 TDs by JA will not get them to 13 wins.

 

The FO didn't just go all in on Offense for 5 more passing TDs over 16 games.  You don't fail to see that, I think....

So you think Josh Allen needs to be better than Aaron Rodgers? I don't get it.

 

The extra points will come from the running backs, special teams, and hopefully the defense (who didn't get many if any scores), and yeah, some from Josh Allen too.

 

If we want to get to 23 points per game, which would make our team average, we only have to score 4 more points per game. Obviously we want to be better than that, but I don't expect our offense to be much better than average this year. So that's about 9 more TD's over the course of the season. Half from Josh to get him to about 30 and half from the running backs and other areas of the team. That's doable and that would make our team average scorers.

 

Yeah, if we want our offense to be top 10 this year, something I don't know is super realistic, then Josh may have to account for more than 30 TD's. But top ten only means 24.5 points per game, so another 3.5 TD's over the season.

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Can’t see the over in wins w the under on Allen TDs personally

Aaron Rodgers accounted for less than 30 TD's and his team got 13 wins. Jimmy G had 29 and his team went to the super bowl. Pat Mahomes had 28 total TD's and he WON the Superbowl.

 

I really don't get it. If Allen gets more than 30 TD's he's in elite company.

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, MJS said:

So you think Josh Allen needs to be better than Aaron Rodgers? I don't get it.

 

The extra points will come from the running backs, special teams, and hopefully the defense (who didn't get many if any scores), and yeah, some from Josh Allen too.

 

If we want to get to 23 points per game, which would make our team average, we only have to score 4 more points per game. Obviously we want to be better than that, but I don't expect our offense to be much better than average this year. So that's about 9 more TD's over the course of the season. Half from Josh to get him to about 30 and half from the running backs and other areas of the team. That's doable and that would make our team average scorers.

 

Yeah, if we want our offense to be top 10 this year, something I don't know is super realistic, then Josh may have to account for more than 30 TD's. But top ten only means 24.5 points per game, so another 3.5 TD's over the season.

Aaron Rodgers accounted for less than 30 TD's and his team got 13 wins. Jimmy G had 29 and his team went to the super bowl. Pat Mahomes had 28 total TD's and he WON the Superbowl.

 

I really don't get it. If Allen gets more than 30 TD's he's in elite company.

I don’t think folks realize that big gaudy TD numbers are kinda down around the league these last few years. The Vikings had the 8th best offense in points scored and Cousins had 27 TD’s. The rest of his team had 18 on the ground. Which also means that Diggs having 6 TD’s, the same as John Brown, may not be a huge additive portion as well.

 

In 2017, 30 TD’s would have been at the top of the NFL, 6th or better. 30 TD’s has been consistently top 12 to top 8 in total TD’s across the season. Josh doesn’t have to have 40 TD’s for us to have a good offense, although it would certainly help. 

 

What matters more more is the number of red zone trips and sustained drives. We need to get close more. The TD’s and points will come from there.

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think folks realize that big gaudy TD numbers are kinda down around the league these last few years. The Vikings had the 8th best offense in points scored and Cousins had 27 TD’s. The rest of his team had 18 on the ground. Which also means that Diggs having 6 TD’s, the same as John Brown, may not be a huge additive portion as well.

 

In 2017, 30 TD’s would have been at the top of the NFL, 6th or better. 30 TD’s has been consistently top 12 to top 8 in total TD’s across the season. Josh doesn’t have to have 40 TD’s for us to have a good offense, although it would certainly help. 

 

What matters more more is the number of red zone trips and sustained drives. We need to get close more. The TD’s and points will come from there.

Yeah, if people are expecting Allen to produce more than 30 TD's, that's unfair, I feel. I don't think he's at the point yet where he can be a top 5 QB, and that's what more than 30 TD's would make him.

 

But the real reason is fans unconsciously (or perhaps consciously) value a passing TD higher than a rushing TD. Since Josh scores a lot of rushing TD's they discount them. They'd rather he pass for 30 TD's and no rushing than 25 passing and 5 rushing. They expect more production than is reasonable, I think.

[GoBills808]

42 minutes ago, MJS said:

So you think Josh Allen needs to be better than Aaron Rodgers? I don't get it.

 

The extra points will come from the running backs, special teams, and hopefully the defense (who didn't get many if any scores), and yeah, some from Josh Allen too.

 

If we want to get to 23 points per game, which would make our team average, we only have to score 4 more points per game. Obviously we want to be better than that, but I don't expect our offense to be much better than average this year. So that's about 9 more TD's over the course of the season. Half from Josh to get him to about 30 and half from the running backs and other areas of the team. That's doable and that would make our team average scorers.

 

Yeah, if we want our offense to be top 10 this year, something I don't know is super realistic, then Josh may have to account for more than 30 TD's. But top ten only means 24.5 points per game, so another 3.5 TD's over the season.

Aaron Rodgers accounted for less than 30 TD's and his team got 13 wins. Jimmy G had 29 and his team went to the super bowl. Pat Mahomes had 28 total TD's and he WON the Superbowl.

 

I really don't get it. If Allen gets more than 30 TD's he's in elite company.

It’s more share of team TDs. Aaron Jones scored 16 TDs, Singletary and Gore combined for 4. 
 

Only Allen scores TDs for the Bills. If he doesn’t score 30+ we don’t win games. You realize the amount of close games we played this year when he scored 29 TDs? 10 one score games.