Stock Market Resiliency

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

$100 which he couldn't keep, spend or return to his shareholders.   It may as well been printed on Elbonian toilet paper...

 

 

He DID SPEND it. He bought meat from the butcher. He paid that debt in arrears. I suggest you stop, I’m getting embarrassed for you. 

 

I will not respond to this again, so you get the last word. I suggest you take a fresh look before doing so. But whatever.

 

Nothing personal, you are looking at the picture and seeing the ugly hag, when there is actually a beautiful Princess there. (Remember that old thing?) 

 

Go Bills! 

[Lurker]

19 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

He DID SPEND it. He bought meat from the butcher. He paid that debt in arrears. I suggest you stop, I’m getting embarrassed for you. 

 

I will not respond to this again, so you get the last word. I suggest you take a fresh look before doing so. But whatever.

 

Nothing personal, you are looking at the picture and seeing the ugly hag, when there is actually a beautiful Princess there. (Remember that old thing?) 

 

Go Bills! 

 

Borrower              Lender           Item of Value Provided for $100               Loan Collected        Dollars Retained by Lender

Hotel owner         Butcher                           Meat                                                        Yes                                   $100

Butcher                 Farmer                            Pig                                                           Yes                                   $100

Farmer                  Co-Op                              Grain                                                       Yes                                   $100

Co-Op                   Prostitute                        Personal Services                                 Yes                                   $100

Prostitute             Hotel owner                   Hotel Room                                             Yes                                      $0

 

If you underwrite loans like this at your bank, I suggest you fire your CFO...

 

[Augie]

4 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Borrower              Lender           Item of Value Provided for $100               Loan Collected        Dollars Retained by Lender

Hotel owner         Butcher                           Meat                                                        Yes                                   $100

Butcher                 Farmer                            Pig                                                           Yes                                   $100

Farmer                  Co-Op                              Grain                                                       Yes                                   $100

Co-Op                   Prostitute                        Personal Services                                 Yes                                   $100

Prostitute             Hotel owner                   Hotel Room                                             Yes                                      $0

 

If you underwrite loans like this at your bank, I suggest you fire your CFO...

 

 

I am ONLY responding  because you went to so much effort. This is the point exactly. Nobody MADE any money, but the money circulated. That is what you need in the economy. And everybody was good in the end.  

 

If this was my college hoops board, I’d know exactly who to call upon to make this clear with less effort. Some of those guys were Econ professors and have their names on classrooms, and I’m guessing could do better to make this clear.  Circulation of money is a big deal. People get scared, don’t spend and it all comes to a screeching halt. That is BAD. VERY BAD! That happened in 2008. We didn’t know if the world would end, so nobody spent anything. I held up on a measly $2,500 landscape lighting project. The guy understood, everybody was cancelling. He couldn’t pay his guys, they couldn’t afford haircuts, the barber had to cut back on purchases, etc. THAT was why we were so screwed! 

 

Do you have an Econ background? Never mind, we’ll skip all that. This time I’m done regardless of the amount of effort you put into your response. (I hope ) The circulation of money is a real thing, and it’s a big deal. Certainly not the ONLY thing, but a BIG thing. 

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, Augie said:

This time I’m done regardless of the amount of effort you put into your response. 

 

Me too.  I enjoyed the mental gynastics / logic problem of your post, but this is just boring now.   

 

The sad reality is that even though money circulated, the hotel owner got screwed as he received nothing in return for his room.    Maybe he can work out an arangement with the prostitute to get some kind of compensation, if not of the monetary kind...  

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

I am ONLY responding  because you went to so much effort. This is the point exactly. Nobody MADE any money, but the money circulated. That is what you need in the economy. And everybody was good in the end.  

 

If this was my college hoops board, I’d know exactly who to call upon to make this clear with less effort. Some of those guys were Econ professors and have their names on classrooms, and I’m guessing could do better to make this clear.  Circulation of money is a big deal. People get scared, don’t spend and it all comes to a screeching halt. That is BAD. VERY BAD! That happened in 2008. We didn’t know if the world would end, so nobody spent anything. I held up on a measly $2,500 landscape lighting project. The guy understood, everybody was cancelling. He couldn’t pay his guys, they couldn’t afford haircuts, the barber had to cut back on purchases, etc. THAT was why we were so screwed! 

 

Do you have an Econ background? Never mind, we’ll skip all that. This time I’m done regardless of the amount of effort you put into your response. (I hope ) The circulation of money is a real thing, and it’s a big deal. Certainly not the ONLY thing, but a BIG thing. 

Augie, I agree with you that the circulation of money is essential in boosting a morbid economy. But what I find stunning is that there are economic reports that show that 40% of the people live paycheck to paycheck to the point that a miniscule unexpected bill can derail a family's budget. 

 

As you seem to indicate the little money that the government is sending to people needs to be spent in order to rev up the economy. But another lesson that needs to be learned after this cataclysmic health event is that people need to save more in order to deal with an unexpected financial setback. Don't misunderstand what I am saying here. Many people are doing their best to just hang on and pay their bills. But there also needs to be more awareness to save for an unexpected expenditure in order to avoid a financial collapse at the family level. 

[BringBackFergy]

Anyone know where I can find a hooker on credit?

[Augie]

11 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Augie, I agree with you that the circulation of money is essential in boosting a morbid economy. But what I find stunning is that there are economic reports that show that 40% of the people live paycheck to paycheck to the point that a miniscule unexpected bill can derail a family's budget. 

 

As you seem to indicate the little money that the government is sending to people needs to be spent in order to rev up the economy. But another lesson that needs to be learned after this cataclysmic health event is that people need to save more in order to deal with an unexpected financial setback. Don't misunderstand what I am saying here. Many people are doing their best to just hang on and pay their bills. But there also needs to be more awareness to save for an unexpected expenditure in order to avoid a financial collapse at the family level. 

 

No doubt! People need to learn to live well BENEATH their means. Another lesson from my banking days, FAR too many people plan their lives based upon the best case scenarios. “How great can I have?” Best case doesn’t always happen. 

 

When I left college and moved to Hilton Head and got into banking, there was a house I used to ride my bike by with my dogs in chase almost daily. FABULOUS house owned by a partner in one of the biggest law firms. Jags in the driveway, stunningly beautiful wife, I thought I wanted THAT one day. Then......after starting at the bank I saw his wife coming in, tears streaming down her face begging for another 30 days to make the mortgage payment. Offering the jewelry she was wearing for another month. That was eye opening, and in some ways crushing. 

 

Live comfortably within your means is my advice. 

 

We spend too much, but are basically VERY conservative. 

[plenzmd1]

On 4/29/2020 at 8:42 PM, BringBackFergy said:

Anyone know where I can find a hooker on credit?

@Augie is looking for a side gig to pay for his tuna @Gugny tailgate at the opener. He has Square and can take cards. ( threw the Square in so he will have to spend half a day researching what Sqaure is)

 

NASDAQ positive for the year...man how can that be!

[Nextmanup]

On 4/27/2020 at 11:10 AM, Irv said:

I'm amazed at how the stock market is recovering from the impacts of the pandemic.  It's almost gained back half the losses taken during March.  Once this virus is behind us, is it unreasonable to think the Dow could be at 35K within a year from now?

The people who control it and have a vested interest in seeing it remain healthy always find a way to keep values up, long term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

9 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

@Augie is looking for a side gig to pay for his tuna @Gugny tailgate at the opener. He has Square and can take cards. ( threw the Square in so he will have to spend half a day researching what Sqaure is)

 

NASDAQ positive for the year...man how can that be!

In a word? The Fed policies that have been propping it up more than anything. Caught this article today:

 

https://apple.news/A6VufKtXZQmiSFpYq3BOGzg

[Q-baby!]

On 4/29/2020 at 8:42 PM, BringBackFergy said:

Anyone know where I can find a hooker on credit?

Saskatchewan apparently.

[Back2Buff]

12 hours ago, K-9 said:

In a word? The Fed policies that have been propping it up more than anything. Caught this article today:

 

https://apple.news/A6VufKtXZQmiSFpYq3BOGzg

 

Really good article.  This is the most important part people are not realizing hasn't hit yet:

 

Quote

“If we haven’t hit the bottom yet, things will get very, very bad, because then you’ll see a lot of cascading effects where a hedge fund will blow up, which means the pension fund that is invested in the hedge fund now has to take that loss, which means they have to de-risk, so they have to move out of equities,” the Goldman associate said. “There’s a very real possibility that people could get washed out, not just retail investors, but everybody.”

 

Pension funds within struggling companies can swing the marker immensely.  Lot's of these companies who file for bankruptcy will be to get out of pensions.

[plenzmd1]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:40 PM, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

I share the amazement, but interpret what it means much differently.  My guess is that most computer investing models look at recent stock market drops, see a lot of "V-shaped" recoveries, and blindly predict that this time will be the same.

 

But in my personal opinion, it's not the same.   The state governors can react to vocal criticism by a minority of consumers and by their big-money business-owning donors who are losing profits, by allowing the economy to re-open, but the average consumer is NOT going to immediately resume the same spending habits they had before the pandemic.

 

If we get a re-test of the recent lows, and those lows hold, I'll consider buying stocks - - not before then.

 

And FWIW, I take the general optimism about stocks in this thread as a pretty reliable contrary indicator.  Time will tell.

 

Your mileage may vary.  Do not try this at home.  Professional driver on closed course.  Consult your physician for a complete list of all side-effects.

 

Full disclosure - - I have occasionally been called an idiot by both my significant other and by prior insignificant others.

 

 

Man, this is crazy. Back to about even for the year, which I would have thought was gunna take at least 18 months, we have done it in 2.

 

And i am not saying this sarcastically, i hope you jumped in at some point Sleepdead!

 

Having said that, looks like we will be taking some hedge on the downside..not over yet i dont think

[K-9]

40 million unemployed and the times they are a boomin! Yippee!!

[Jauronimo]

38 minutes ago, K-9 said:

40 million unemployed and the times they are a boomin! Yippee!!

Gotta love the market.  Daily new cases of COVID are flat - market pumps.  Rioting has slowed down - market pumps.  Unemployment not as bad as the massive predictions - market pumps.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

Gotta love the market.  Daily new cases of COVID are flat - market pumps.  Rioting has slowed down - market pumps.  Unemployment not as bad as the massive predictions - market pumps.

Two trillion dollar injection of liquidity by the taxpayers, the market pumps.

[MarkyMannn]

OMG May jobless claims will be AWFUL.  OOOPS media got that one wrong.  My company has everyone back and hiring more.  I was fortunate to get out early in the bear and back in early in the bull market.  Plus check out airline and cruise stocks.  SAVE, LUV, DAL, CCL, NCLH.  Casino stocks may be next up

 

Whatever you do stay away from weed stocks.  Been there learned hard lesson

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Man, this is crazy. Back to about even for the year, which I would have thought was gunna take at least 18 months, we have done it in 2.

 

And i am not saying this sarcastically, i hope you jumped in at some point Sleepdead!

 

Having said that, looks like we will be taking some hedge on the downside..not over yet i dont think

I have to admit that at least in the short term, I could not have been more wrong about what the stock market would do.  I'm old enough, and have saved/invested enough over the years, that at this point in my life I'm more concerned about return OF my capital than return ON my capital.  That personal circumstance probably skews my market views so that I am more financially conservative than the average investor these days, and certainly more conservative than I was when I was younger.  For most of my adult life I was fully invested in the stock market, with one notable exception - - I got completely out about a year before the dot-com bubble broke and jumped fully back in near the bottom a few years later shortly after Time, Newsweek and US News & World Report all had cover stories about how terrible the bear market had become.  I've also generally taken a pretty contrarian approach with respect to the particular stocks I bought, and that has served me well in the long term.  I've never been a short-term trader.

 

I have a tendency to stubbornly stand by my investing convictions in the absence of significant changes that affect Main Street, no matter what Wall Street is doing, and that is the case here.  I did not get back in the stock market after my post up-thread.  I didn't like the risk/reward proposition for buying stocks then, and I think it's even worse now.  Given my overall contrarian approach to investing, I can't justify putting money into stocks at time when the market is practically booming at the tail end of one of the longest bull markets in history while the outlook for Main Street is pretty dismal.

 

If I miss further short-term market upside as a result, I'm OK with that.

 

Even though I'm likely to remain out of the stock market for quite a while, I try to at least occasionally read articles that seek to make sense of market trends.  I don't know anything about the author, but this recent one was thought-provoking:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/3-keys-understanding-strangest-economy-ever/612373/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Good luck with your own investments Plenzmd1.

[plenzmd1]

@ICanSleepWhenI'mDead, if i knew how to time the market i would be wealhty man! Ask @Augie, who was getting my texts daily early  in this crisis my level of anxiety in mid-to-late March was pretty high. We really did nothing much, i am pretty hands off and let our advisor pretty much handle everything...and what he did was take some stocks with losses and sell those and rotated into other stocks in the same sector to lock in some loses. Our portfolio has always been a little overweighted in Tech and Nasdaq, so never had quite the downside hit some others felt, but on a day like today also not having the huge pop either. 

 

Good luck to all of us ...more money in all our pockets mean more spending! 

 

BTW, if i wass runnig my own stuff, would have shorted TSLA at 500 like a mofo.

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, MarkyMannn said:

OMG May jobless claims will be AWFUL.  OOOPS media got that one wrong.  My company has everyone back and hiring more.  I was fortunate to get out early in the bear and back in early in the bull market.  Plus check out airline and cruise stocks.  SAVE, LUV, DAL, CCL, NCLH.  Casino stocks may be next up

 

Whatever you do stay away from weed stocks.  Been there learned hard lesson

The media did not get that wrong, the economists who forecasted those statistics got it wrong. It’s more accurate to blame the actual sources. 

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

History may not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes.  I'm not predicting that we will get the worst case scenario that the article below describes, but if you've read about the underlying causes of the last financial crisis that precipitated the "Great Recession," you can see the potential similarities:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Anybody have any thoughts (probably the wrong audience for financial insights) about how to track info on the level of CLO defaults?  I forget the guy's name, but they made a movie about the guy who made a boat-load of $$$  by making contrarian investments after realizing that CDOs were likely to fail even though the average consumer couldn't conceive of the idea that house prices could drop.  Conventional wisdom is often much more conventional than it is wise.

[K-9]

12 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

History may not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes.  I'm not predicting that we will get the worst case scenario that the article below describes, but if you've read about the underlying causes of the last financial crisis that precipitated the "Great Recession," you can see the potential similarities:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Anybody have any thoughts (probably the wrong audience for financial insights) about how to track info on the level of CLO defaults?  I forget the guy's name, but they made a movie about the guy who made a boat-load of $$$  by making contrarian investments after realizing that CDOs were likely to fail even though the average consumer couldn't conceive of the idea that house prices could drop.  Conventional wisdom is often much more conventional than it is wise.

I think that’s Michael Burry. 

[Jauronimo]

8 minutes ago, ICanSleepWhenI'mDead said:

History may not repeat itself, but it sometimes rhymes.  I'm not predicting that we will get the worst case scenario that the article below describes, but if you've read about the underlying causes of the last financial crisis that precipitated the "Great Recession," you can see the potential similarities:

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Anybody have any thoughts (probably the wrong audience for financial insights) about how to track info on the level of CLO defaults?  I forget the guy's name, but they made a movie about the guy who made a boat-load of $$$  by making contrarian investments after realizing that CDOs were likely to fail even though the average consumer couldn't conceive of the idea that house prices could drop.  Conventional wisdom is often much more conventional than it is wise.

I really don't see the similarities.  The housing market crash was a perfect storm of bad incentives, loose lending, and the revival of arcane derivatives known as credit default swaps.

 

There was rampant fraud in the mortgage industry on top of no standards for sub prime lending.  Mortgage originators didn't care about the quality of the paper they wrote as they had larger regional banks ready to buy anything they had to offer who similarly didn't care because Fannie and Freddie accepted everything without question. Fannie and Freddie didn't care because they were doing their American duty in growing the American economy (more houses means more consumption of other goods) and they were just going to slice and dice the mortgages up into CMOs and sell them all to some moron in Germany.  Making matters worse, AIG guaranteed all of these dog**** CMOs 10x, 100x, and 1,000x over since they were so confident none would fail. Easy money to collect your monthly fees.  AIG was guaranteeing something like $440 billion in CMOS. 

 

Distressed business loans seemingly have some actual lending practices adhered to.  I am not an expert on distressed debt but I don't think lenders have a CLO end-buyer who is as gullible and inept as our favorite GSEs Fannie and Freddie.  Again not an expert, but I from what I understand no one in their right mind is writing Credit Default Swaps after 2008.

 

K-9 is right.  Michael Burry among others was highlighted in The Big Short after convincing AIG and banks to offer him CDSs (these products were not available at the time) and made a killing.  The bad news is that unless you're an institutional investor with certain licenses these securities are not available to you.  You can short the banks I guess.  

[Augie]

I remember when the primary question in the residential lending world stopped being “will we get our money back?” and turned into “how quickly can we pool it and sell it?” 

 

There was a restaurateur in Hilton Head I would not lend $5k for a used car.....but we lent him $500k+ for a new house because someone was willing to buy it.  He never made the first payment, but it took over a year to get him out. Madness was rampant. I don’t see this as being that. But what do I know???

 

 

.

Edited September 4, 2020 by Augie

[Niagara Bill]

1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

I really don't see the similarities.  The housing market crash was a perfect storm of bad incentives, loose lending, and the revival of arcane derivatives known as credit default swaps.

 

There was rampant fraud in the mortgage industry on top of no standards for sub prime lending.  Mortgage originators didn't care about the quality of the paper they wrote as they had larger regional banks ready to buy anything they had to offer who similarly didn't care because Fannie and Freddie accepted everything without question. Fannie and Freddie didn't care because they were doing their American duty in growing the American economy (more houses means more consumption of other goods) and they were just going to slice and dice the mortgages up into CMOs and sell them all to some moron in Germany.  Making matters worse, AIG guaranteed all of these dog**** CMOs 10x, 100x, and 1,000x over since they were so confident none would fail. Easy money to collect your monthly fees.  AIG was guaranteeing something like $440 billion in CMOS. 

 

Distressed business loans seemingly have some actual lending practices adhered to.  I am not an expert on distressed debt but I don't think lenders have a CLO end-buyer who is as gullible and inept as our favorite GSEs Fannie and Freddie.  Again not an expert, but I from what I understand no one in their right mind is writing Credit Default Swaps after 2008.

 

K-9 is right.  Michael Burry among others was highlighted in The Big Short after convincing AIG and banks to offer him CDSs (these products were not available at the time) and made a killing.  The bad news is that unless you're an institutional investor with certain licenses these securities are not available to you.  You can short the banks I guess.  

Do not forget the role Bill Clinton's administration played and Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac.

The US us the single biggest socialist programs in the world with those two government organizations.

 

[Jauronimo]

34 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

Do not forget the role Bill Clinton's administration played and Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac.

The US us the single biggest socialist programs in the world with those two government organizations.

 

The buildup of the housing bubble spanned 2 administrations.  While Clinton played his role in loosening lending standards to build a new homeowner society the bad behavior continued under GWB and by the later stages of the game private institutions were beating the GSEs and government regulated lenders at their own game.  Enter Bear Sterns and Lehman. There's enough blame to go around.  I don't think laying it all on Clinton is fair.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fannie-freddie-and-the-cra-are-not-responsible-for-the-financial-crisis/

[Niagara Bill]

1 minute ago, Jauronimo said:

The buildup of the housing bubble spanned 2 administrations.  While Clinton played his role in loosening lending standards to build a new homeowner society the bad behavior continued under GWB and by the later stages of the game private institutions were beating the GSEs and government regulated lenders at their own game.  Enter Bear Sterns and Lehman. There's enough blame to go around.  I don't think laying it all on Clinton is fair.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fannie-freddie-and-the-cra-are-not-responsible-for-the-financial-crisis/

Fair, you likely know more than I do...use to stay in hotel across from Lehman in NYC Times Square

[Jauronimo]

1 minute ago, Niagara Bill said:

Fair, you likely know more than I do...use to stay in hotel across from Lehman in NYC Times Square

I'm no expert but the subject has fascinated me since I read The Big Short.  Great book and surprisingly decent movie too.  

[JohnC]

On 6/11/2020 at 6:39 PM, Niagara Bill said:

Do not forget the role Bill Clinton's administration played and Fanny Mae and Freddy Mac.

The US us the single biggest socialist programs in the world with those two government organizations.

 

You are way off the mark. Fannie Mae was founded in 1938 and Freddy Mac was established in 1970 by congress. They predated Clinton's administration. In addition, both fall in the unique category of having a public/private structure to both entities. So to call them the biggest socialist programs is grossly inaccurate

 https://www.fhfa.gov/SupervisionRegulation/FannieMaeandFreddieMac/Pages/About-Fannie-Mae---Freddie-Mac.aspx

 

The biggest socialist-like programs this country has is medicare and social security. And it should be noted that an overwhelming number of  Americans favor these programs. 

[Niagara Bill]

40 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You are way off the mark. Fannie Mae was founded in 1938 and Freddy Mac was established in 1970 by congress. They predated Clinton's administration. In addition, both fall in the unique category of having a public/private structure to both entities. So to call them the biggest socialist programs is grossly inaccurate

 https://www.fhfa.gov/SupervisionRegulation/FannieMaeandFreddieMac/Pages/About-Fannie-Mae---Freddie-Mac.aspx

 

The biggest socialist-like programs this country has is medicare and social security. And it should be noted that an overwhelming number of  Americans favor these programs. 

I never suggested Clinton created Fred and Fanny, but he did recreate their targets. Medicare is socialistic if you believe your citizens are not equal in their need for medical assistance,  regardless of income.

Fred and Fanny makes the US government the largest land holder or guarantor of land in the country, perhaps the world. US mortgage documents make the holder of the mortgage the land holder until it is paid. In most countries the mortgage holder does not control the property unless default then they must apply to gain control.

Thus in the U S people can walk away from the property, in most countries if you walk away you still owe the loan repayment.

Social security is less socialist since people actually contribute through a tax. 

 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Niagara Bill said:

I never suggested Clinton created Fred and Fanny, but he did recreate their targets. Medicare is socialistic if you believe your citizens are not equal in their need for medical assistance,  regardless of income.

Fred and Fanny makes the US government the largest land holder or guarantor of land in the country, perhaps the world. US mortgage documents make the holder of the mortgage the land holder until it is paid. In most countries the mortgage holder does not control the property unless default then they must apply to gain control.

Thus in the U S people can walk away from the property, in most countries if you walk away you still owe the loan repayment.

Social security is less socialist since people actually contribute through a tax. 

 

I'm not saying this to disparage your comments. But I have no clue what you are saying.  

[KD in CA]

As the 'second wave' rumblings start to gather steam and the business bankruptcies ramp up, I'm thinking we'll have a second big market dip coming fairly soon.

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

As the 'second wave' rumblings start to gather steam and the business bankruptcies ramp up, I'm thinking we'll have a second big market dip coming fairly soon.

Don’t worry, Wall Street will realize another socialist windfall to keep their over-inflated and artificial values propped up.
 

Meanwhile, in the real world...

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

I thought this article presented an interesting perspective on current stock market trends/issues:

 

https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2020/7/9/21314119/stock-market-day-trading-reddit-dave-portnoy-barstool-robinhood?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

Even if the people interviewed/mentioned represent a small share of market volume, it's a window on current market psychology among retail "investors."

[T&C]

What is weird to me... and I'm glad, thought the place would bottom out altogether... is that my 401K is actually Up 2% since Jan.1 of this year. Same matched contributions, everything. 

[Bill from NYC]

On ‎6‎/‎11‎/‎2020 at 8:02 PM, Jauronimo said:

I'm no expert but the subject has fascinated me since I read The Big Short.  Great book and surprisingly decent movie too.  

I am not sure why that movie didn't get more notice. Not only was it informative, it was very funny and well acted.

[Irv]

NASDAQ and S&P 500 at all-time highs.  DJIA less than 100 points off the all-time high.  Absolutely incredible given the pandemic situation and potential for a left-wing President.

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, Irv said:

NASDAQ and S&P 500 at all-time highs.  DJIA less than 100 points off the all-time high.  Absolutely incredible given the pandemic situation and potential for a left-wing President.

  That's just one aspect of what is going on.  Listening to a radio report yesterday that 90 percent of restaurant owners nationally are facing or will face losses within the next couple of months which will close their businesses.  Consider that a very substantial number of Americans have no direct or indirect investment in the stock market.  That their retirement will come from the sale of their business or other assets.  A disruption such as a pandemic will take years to sort itself out and formulate a strategy to deal with it.  

[K-9]

3 hours ago, Irv said:

NASDAQ and S&P 500 at all-time highs.  DJIA less than 100 points off the all-time high.  Absolutely incredible given the pandemic situation and potential for a left-wing President.

Not surprising in the least even with the pandemic given the fed has injected $2.3 TRILLION (with a T) into the economy, including $1.5 TRILLION of liquidity directly to Wall Street investment banks. It just goes to show how effective the federal government can be when it comes to stemming financial disaster. Ironically, it’s given to the biggest proponents of limited government intervention. I wish we would inject as much into demand-side policies as well. 

Edited September 2, 2020 by K-9

[T&C]

Yesterday was great, today was a total meltdown.