There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I still have not seen or heard of a coherent plan from anyone, other than broad speculation.  The type of speculation your hear from science fiction dreamers.

 

Here are my thoughts:

 

- The antibody testing will never ramp up fast enough (200M tests ready by May 1st?), so it will have to be a spot check at best.  Maybe 10% of the population; 30M tests may be doable.  That will get a feel for how long the virus has been in the wild.  Imagine the egg-on-faces if it's been here for waves since Dec 2019 (very possible).  So that is why my hunch is this test will never even grow legs and be a viable option. 

 

- That would also put the bracelet/mark of the beast question to bed.  Not viable to test every human, and people would never agree to it anyways, so why entertain it.

 

- The actual, active virus test will need to have better coverage, and the tracing will need to be Stasi like.  This is the test that will need to be in the ~200M range by May 1st, and it will need fast replenishment.  Does anyone know how many tests and manufacturer's capacity is out there?  And let's assume they are widely available, and anyone who needs it gets it.  Who is going to do all the positive tester contact follow up?  The US is not built for that (too big).

 

- This is why we will land on the regional reopening option, and will have to go back to the old way of trusting our neighbors.  Keep the immuno-compromised & grandma sheltered (somewhat), but let the "brave" rest of us who need to go on with our lives, go about it.  If you get it, you get it.  Sorry, like cancer, you don't get any guarantees in life.

 

If we don't do this by May 1st, get ready for a repeat of the middle ages.  My fortune 500 (maybe 200 now?) said it will layoff everyone in the US if we aren't reopened by mid May.  I'm sure most big companies are considering that too, and it would be the death of the USA if that happened.  Mid May is the point of no return.

 

I agree with most of this (maybe not the Middle Ages hyperbole but I’ll go with risk of long term depression). The tracking can be done via cell phones. Not perfect but if we are tracking 85% of the population and contract tracking via an app that warned you when you had been in close contact with someone, it could work. And even with that, we would need people to act responsibly.
 

 I don’t see the tracking teams of Korea working here. Too big. Too many people. No infrastructure for it. But it sure as ***** works to test the hell out of people and track contacts. Their success rate is amazing. 

[Foxx]

we will not be going back to Kansas. the world has changed forever more.

[123719bwiqrb]

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

I agree with most of this (maybe not the Middle Ages hyperbole but I’ll go with risk of long term depression). The tracking can be done via cell phones. Not perfect but if we are tracking 85% of the population and contract tracking via an app that warned you when you had been in close contact with someone, it could work. And even with that, we would need people to act responsibly.
 

 I don’t see the tracking teams of Korea working here. Too big. Too many people. No infrastructure for it. But it sure as ***** works to test the hell out of people and track contacts. Their success rate is amazing. 

 

I'm ok with that app idea - but what would the voluntary compliance be, 25%?  I don't think you could get 50% of people in the US using it.  I guess 25% is better than nothing.

[shoshin]

7 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

 

I'm ok with that app idea - but what would the voluntary compliance be, 25%?  I don't think you could get 50% of people in the US using it.  I guess 25% is better than nothing.

25% would be nothing. Without tracking, we are just saying “***** it.” 
 

And if you want a private solution, get Walmart, Target, McD, Starbucks, etc to have a greeter That scans  your App on the way in or turn your ass around. If the app shows that it’s been “active” and not disabled for 10 days, come on in and shop. If not, see ya.
 

That would get some compliance. Voluntary but the price of getting the benefits of the economy. If you want to be a purist about your rights until this passes, grow your own food. 
 

People could of course work around it but most would understand that like mask wearing (what about all the robberies...clutches pearls), this is an important piece of getting back to work. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by shoshin

[Nanker]

7 minutes ago, Foxx said:

we will not be going back to Kansas. the world has changed forever more.

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang, but a whimper. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

16 minutes ago, shoshin said:

And if you want a private solution, get Walmart, Target, McD, Starbucks, etc to have a greeter That scans  your App on the way in or turn your ass around. If the app shows that it’s been “active” and not disabled for 10 days, come on in and shop. If not, see ya.

No, that would get people to shop elsewhere. No business is going to willingly turn away customers. 

[Westside]

29 minutes ago, shoshin said:

25% would be nothing. Without tracking, we are just saying “***** it.” 
 

And if you want a private solution, get Walmart, Target, McD, Starbucks, etc to have a greeter That scans  your App on the way in or turn your ass around. If the app shows that it’s been “active” and not disabled for 10 days, come on in and shop. If not, see ya.
 

That would get some compliance. Voluntary but the price of getting the benefits of the economy. If you want to be a purist about your rights until this passes, grow your own food. 
 

People could of course work around it but most would understand that like mask wearing (what about all the robberies...clutches pearls), this is an important piece of getting back to work. 

Nope, ***** that idea!

I don't want the government tracking me. The cure would be worse than the disease. 

[3rdnlng]

3 hours ago, TH3 said:

 

The "plan" the WH is going to have is a plan to make them look good. The WH will say that the US is open for business and leave the details to the states. This way - if the states go slow....they can say ...."Hey...we opened it up but they slowed it down". This makes the idiots like the regulars here to think everything would be cool if we just did it DT's way....but since you did not do it DT's way...whelp - can't blame him....and if people die....well its the liberal states did not get it right...because liberals...

 

Same thing with the malaria drug....its the perfect "out" for DT...."Hey...I was pushing the magic cure...if everyone was to use it...the death rate would have been lower" Same thing - the 5th avenues here are already on track that Fauci and Gates are conspirators and its not DT's fault - because he had the answer...

 

The plan should be stringent and constant testing - if you are clean or had it...you get a bracelet that clears you for action. Track and trace until the threat is gone or their is a vaccine. Prescient...but that is what they did in Contagion ....Pretty simple....blocking and tackiling

Don't you mean the fish tank cleaner that Trump prescribed to an Arizona couple?

[IDBillzFan]

17 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

.....with final PPP regs being issued last Thursday at 10PM, the banking industry went into turmoil studying the new verbiage, thinking that customers who initially did qualify, now WOULD NOT....Bank of America was one who suspended all loan applications and is now facing multiple lawsuits.....M&T Bank, based in Buffalo with a significant presence on the East Coast, did not launch the site application until yesterday.....500 applicants crashed their system.....normal SBA guidelines have been relaxed so a company I know entered their "number of employees of >500" and their app was rejected, referencing normal SBA guidelines.....another regional bank in Rochester had 15 employees do on-line training for PPP and Disaster Loan processing....SBA does have TWO on-line  loan platforms as in pre Covid-19 and current Covid-19 programs.....they trained on the PRE-COVID 19 system which was a huge waste....existing customers are livid.....I completed our corporate PPP app last night, met with our bank execs this morning and within 5 minutes of submittal, SBA issued us a confirming application number.....our bank has their stuff together and is processing fluidly for customers and non-customers.....there are NO SBA fees but banks get a percentage commission based on loan size, starting at 5% and scaling down to 1%.....our bank, being "on top of it", is experiencing an exponential new customer growth curve due to their readiness....

 

Their readiness is the key. My company banks Wells Fargo, and I was working with them right up to  submitting a WF-created app on Saturday a.m. that essentially allowed them to size up the requests more quickly based on their own designs.

 

This, then, led them to stop taking applications as of Monday a.m. and capping their total loan amount to $10M, focusing on companies with 50 or fewer employees and non-profits. They acknowledged my paperwork, and now I wait because you're not supposed to apply to more than one bank. They insist you can't call them them about this...you just need to be patient.

 

In other words, they have apparently decided they're willing to lose $10M in this if things go wrong, and that will essentially hang me out to dry.

 

It looks like the feds are trying to add another $250B to this. If I don't hear anything today, I'll have to risk going to another bank.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Their readiness is the key. My company banks Wells Fargo, and I was working with them right up to  submitting a WF-created app on Saturday a.m. that essentially allowed them to size up the requests more quickly based on their own designs.

 

This, then, led them to stop taking applications as of Monday a.m. and capping their total loan amount to $10M, focusing on companies with 50 or fewer employees and non-profits. They acknowledged my paperwork, and now I wait because you're not supposed to apply to more than one bank. They insist you can't call them them about this...you just need to be patient.

 

In other words, they have apparently decided they're willing to lose $10M in this if things go wrong, and that will essentially hang me out to dry.

 

It looks like the feds are trying to add another $250B to this. If I don't hear anything today, I'll have to risk going to another bank.

 

Did they provide you with an SBA confirmation number? Once our bank submitted the app, they received a confirmation number to acknowledge SBA receipt.

[IDBillzFan]

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

Did they provide you with an SBA confirmation number? Once our bank submitted the app, they received a confirmation number to acknowledge SBA receipt.

 

No. They just acknowledged they had it. But again, it was a Wells Fargo app, not the SBA app, which I have filled out and tee'd up.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

No. They just acknowledged they had it. But again, it was a Wells Fargo app, not the SBA app, which I have filled out and tee'd up.

 

I went through our bank and completed their requested spreadsheet. They then used to correct SBA app to submit ( two SBA apps, one old and one new; old one is for traditional SBA loan applications). Again, they handled the SBA application. Wells Fargo does not perform this for you?

[IDBillzFan]

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

I went through our bank and completed their requested spreadsheet. They then used to correct SBA app to submit ( two SBA apps, one old and one new; old one is for traditional SBA loan applications). Again, they handled the SBA application. Wells Fargo does not perform this for you?

 

Not at this point. Wells Fargo is still trying to figure out the extent they want to get involved. I'm looking into other banks as I type this, but I'm just a little concerned with having duplicate loan apps out as I'm hearing that can screw things up.

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Not at this point. Wells Fargo is still trying to figure out the extent they want to get involved. I'm looking into other banks as I type this, but I'm just a little concerned with having duplicate loan apps out as I'm hearing that can screw things up.

 

Wells Fargo is my normal bank. They did not work well for this. Good luck--I was able to use a local bank but mostly just because I had a friend who could help me. 

[B-Man]

 

 

Texas Lt. Gov. Announces Task Force to Work on ‘Restarting the Economy.’

 

 

 

.

[Q-baby!]

2 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

No, but no doubt, your bottle scavenging thru others recycle bins is paying your bills.

? I have no bills! 

[Deranged Rhino]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

25% would be nothing. Without tracking, we are just saying “***** it.” 

 

Tracking just will not happen. That's the goal of many -- for years before this pandemic. Now they want to backdoor it into reality. 

 

If you value your civil liberties, your innate rights, and your freedom, you'd understand why this is an all they way bad idea. There's no upside to exchanging our basic civil liberties for a security which is just a mirage to begin with. 

[US Egg]

33 minutes ago, Q-baby! said:

? I have no bills! 

Along with your having no clue.

[Boatdrinks]

28 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Tracking just will not happen. That's the goal of many -- for years before this pandemic. Now they want to backdoor it into reality. 

 

If you value your civil liberties, your innate rights, and your freedom, you'd understand why this is an all they way bad idea. There's no upside to exchanging our basic civil liberties for a security which is just a mirage to begin with. 

No upside at all. Such a scenario is a dream for those who lust after government control / involvement in every aspect of our daily lives. This just won’t work in America. As humans we have the innate right of freedom. None of us has an innate right to not catch a virus; to be free from that which occurs by chance. 

[RochesterRob]

15 minutes ago, I am the egg man said:

Along with your having no clue.

  Well, he is a hobo so having no bills is no surprise.  Unfortunately, for us his uncle left him a laptop.  I wonder if the Springville, NY McD's notices a stray extension cord going into the woods?

[Deranged Rhino]

@jrober38 hardest hit

 

 

[Uncle Joe]

35 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Well, he is a hobo  bum so having no bills is no surprise.  Unfortunately, for us his uncle left him a laptop.  I wonder if the Springville, NY McD's notices a stray extension cord going into the woods?

A hobo is a migrant worker or homeless vagrant, especially one who is impoverished. ... Unlike a "tramp", who works only when forced to, and a "bum", who does not work at all, a "hobo" is a traveling worker.

[123719bwiqrb]

6 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

@jrober38 hardest hit

 

 

 

They just transferred the deaths from the COVID-19 vulnerable to the 25-30% unemployed.  At least the CDC isn't responsible - silo mentality in action.

4 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

A hobo is a migrant worker or homeless vagrant, especially one who is impoverished. ... Unlike a "tramp", who works only when forced to, and a "bum", who does not work at all, a "hobo" is a traveling worker.

 

Hence the reason hobos took illegal, free trips on train cars?  Man, you learn something new everyday.

[RochesterRob]

17 minutes ago, Uncle Joe said:

A hobo is a migrant worker or homeless vagrant, especially one who is impoverished. ... Unlike a "tramp", who works only when forced to, and a "bum", who does not work at all, a "hobo" is a traveling worker.

  I thought that he said one time that he worked time to time as a male prostitute hence hobo?

[123719bwiqrb]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  I thought that he said one time that he worked time to time as a male prostitute hence hobo?

 

Then that's called a HoBlow.

[RochesterRob]

2 hours ago, ScotSHO said:

 

They just transferred the deaths from the COVID-19 vulnerable to the 25-30% unemployed.  At least the CDC isn't responsible - silo mentality in action.

 

Hence the reason hobos took illegal, free trips on train cars?  Man, you learn something new everyday.

  His camp is near the Norfolk Southern line south of Arcade in Cattaraugus County.

Edited April 8, 2020 by RochesterRob

[Q-baby!]

1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:

Along with your having no clue.

Thanks egghead! 

[shoshin]

2 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Tracking just will not happen. That's the goal of many -- for years before this pandemic. Now they want to backdoor it into reality. 

 

If you value your civil liberties, your innate rights, and your freedom, you'd understand why this is an all they way bad idea. There's no upside to exchanging our basic civil liberties for a security which is just a mirage to begin with. 

 

I value my business, my family/community's health, and our economy more than putting up with a covid-tracking-app, where that tracking THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING can help manage our way out of this crisis. 

 

If we don't have the backbone to do this right, this two month shutdown was a waste of time because we will be right back here in September or October, with even higher case counts.

 

I don't see installing an app on my phone as a question I am debating on the civil liberty purity test right now. Trump has said we are at war. In times of war, you do give up certain liberties. Always. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by shoshin

[mannc]

47 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

@jrober38 hardest hit

 

 

Wait, do you mean 100,000 -240,000 dead is no longer the best case scenario????  Who could have predicted that???

Hmmm, I wonder what other models on other subjects might also be wrong...

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Wait, do you mean 100,000 -240,000 dead is no longer the best case scenario????  Who could have predicted that???

 

Distancing is working so this wave will come in 30-60K dead over 3 months. The next wave(s)? Who knows. 

 

I really hope they come up with an effective treatment fast. HCQ, Z-packs, whatever. Anything to get most people back on their feet faster. If we are going to just re-open without a good process to track, that is essential to keeping any economy up and our healthcare system from tanking more than it is. 

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Distancing is working so this wave will come in 30-60K dead over 3 months. The next wave(s)? Who knows. 

 

The next wave will be far less -- because herd immunity. 

(and better data and therapeutics... soon vaccines)

[mannc]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

Distancing is working so this wave will come in 30-60K dead over 3 months. The next wave(s)? Who knows. 

 

I really hope they come up with an effective treatment fast. HCQ, Z-packs, whatever. Anything to get most people back on their feet faster. If we are going to just re-open without a good process to track, that is essential to keeping any economy up and our healthcare system from tanking more than it is. 

Except the 100,000 best case scenario model supposedly took into consideration the effects of social distancing.  It is junk, pure and simple.

Edited April 8, 2020 by mannc

[Foxx]

35 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I value my business, my family/community's health, and our economy more than putting up with a covid-tracking-app, where that tracking THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING can help manage our way out of this crisis. 

 

If we don't have the backbone to do this right, this two month shutdown was a waste of time because we will be right back here in September or October, with even higher case counts.

 

I don't see installing an app on my phone as a question I am debating on the civil liberty purity test right now. Trump has said we are at war. In times of war, you do give up certain liberties. Always. 

you're deluding yourself if you think it will ever go away once they gain the ability.

[Joe Miner]

57 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I value my business, my family/community's health, and our economy more than putting up with a covid-tracking-app, where that tracking THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING can help manage our way out of this crisis. 

 

If we don't have the backbone to do this right, this two month shutdown was a waste of time because we will be right back here in September or October, with even higher case counts.

 

I don't see installing an app on my phone as a question I am debating on the civil liberty purity test right now. Trump has said we are at war. In times of war, you do give up certain liberties. Always. 

 

As the DNC showed us.  The govt is great with apps.

 

What could go wrong with voluntarily handing those idiots your current and historical whereabouts?

 

Stop reacting out of panic.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

Governors Must Take Action Now to Soften the Blow of the Economic Shut-Down

 

 

 

.

[123719bwiqrb]

2 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

Governors Must Take Action Now to Soften the Blow of the Economic Shut-Down

 

 

 

.

 

HA!

 

The unions would argue those dues are needed for times like these.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

you're deluding yourself if you think it will ever go away once they gain the ability.

 

They already have the ability. 

 

I prefer this small wave of Covid-19 to be the only one, except for isolated outbreaks. 

[Deranged Rhino]

8 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

They already have the ability. 

 

I prefer this small wave of Covid-19 to be the only one, except for isolated outbreaks. 

 

Freedom, right to privacy, and due process be damned, amirite? 

 

Make sure the bargain is worth it. What you're proposing is too expensive for little to no hope of offering a solution.

[shoshin]

11 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Freedom, right to privacy, and due process be damned, amirite? 

 

Make sure the bargain is worth it. What you're proposing is too expensive for little to no hope of offering a solution.

 

You exaggerate of course.

 

Are we not "at war" as the president constantly says? 

Edited April 8, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

You exaggerate of course.

 

Are we not "at war" as the president constantly says? 

 

Shoshin -- it's not an exagerration. 

 

We are at constant war with our government. Constant. They've been chipping away at our rights and civil liberties for your whole life. They scored major wins in 2001-2003, then again in 2013 when the mass surveillance state was exposed and the country shrugged. This war isn't fought with violence, but with our votes and actions as citizens. It's our responsibility to hold those who govern us accountable, and what you're suggesting is abdicating that entirely in exchange for the government protecting you. 

 

The reality is, tracking won't keep you safe. 

 

It puts you in greater danger.