Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[BillsFan4]

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-is-in-intensive-care-after-his-coronavirus-symptoms-worsened-2020-4

 

Boris Johnson moved into the ICU unit after COVID19 symptoms worsen.

 

I believe he was just taken to the hospital yesterday.

[Hardhatharry]

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

 

 

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

 

 

 

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

A lot of old people dying. I'm dreading getting the call from a family member.

[/dev/null]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

A lot of old people dying. I'm dreading getting the call from a family member.

 

Every time my Dad calls me lately has been a relief.

[BillsFan4]

For anyone interested:

 

https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-06-20-00300.pdf

 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services office of the inspector general report:

Quote

Hospital Experiences Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results of a National Pulse Survey March 23–27, 2020

 

 

[bbb]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Funny, i approach the market now just like a Bills game...it  has a good day and I put on the post game show  and listen to why and just nice to see people be happy..bad days i peek at the score and too much red i just dont listen at all.

 

This is how I treat the Bills and now the market.

 

The weird thing to me is that I've heard that the ratings are higher when the Bills lose.  Who would want to listen to postgame more when they lose than when they win?!?

[BillsFan4]

This is from the NHL Winnipeg Jet’s head coach Paul Maurice. Felt like it was worth sharing in this thread.

 

https://theathletic.com/1726826/2020/04/06/a-deep-dive-into-paul-maurices-first-press-conference-since-the-nhl-shut-down/

(Athletic Sub. req.)

 

 

Quote

What has he learned about himself as a father since he’s had the opportunity to be a full-time dad once again?

 

“I can get grinding on things pretty good that are bothering me,” he began. “But the positive thing here for me and my family is I’ve got three university kids at home together and it’s a window I’m never getting again. I’ll never get to have dinner every night with them as a group or sit around and watch bad movies with them that they think are funny and they just clearly are not. There’s a lot of interactions that I’m going to get with my family that there’s no set of circumstances that will ever present themselves again that will allow this to happen. I am absolutely making the most of that.”

 

Well said. 

 

 

Quote

He stressed that the world is connected in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The situation transcends well beyond hockey, well beyond sports. He touched on concern for his own aging parents and for his brother, Michael, a doctor, but stressed that the situation is bigger than his own experience.

 

“Everybody is touched on this, whether it’s first responders – we all know police officers, fire department and EMT people – people in hospitals, people in grocery stores, people that are keeping us fed. Everybody knows somebody that’s dealing with this differently. So this is not one of these kind of cocoon situations where your own little world is touched by it. This is touching everybody that’s got a different story, a different way that they’re dealing with it.”

 

Finally, Maurice was asked what his message to the world would be at a time like this.

 

“This is a really unusual time, isn’t it,” Maurice said. “You get into your fifties and you think you’ve got a lot of experience on how to handle things — and then something like this comes up and you have no experience on how to handle it. But there’s lots of really, really good examples out there of people that are banding together. That’s what I like to focus on. If I’m going to read the news, I want to read the story about the firemen that are doing extra, the police officers, the nurses that are going in, the doctors that are caring for people.”

 

“What we’re trying to do — and I’m knocking on wood here — we’re healthy and we’re very, very fortunate and we don’t have some of the concerns that a lot of people are dealing with. But we’re trying to find something good. In my house, I’m trying to enjoy every minute of being around a bunch of 20-year-old kids. I’m never getting this chance again. Try to find one thing that’s good and hang onto that thing as hard as you possibly can. Maybe once you find that one thing, you’ll find another. It’s been working so far here. My kids haven’t thrown me out of the house yet. Check in in about a week and we’ll see where we’re at.”

 

Paul Maurice is one of my favorite head coaches to listen to. You can see why him and Ralph Krueger are such good buddies.

[Bad Things]

Rest assured kiddies... The Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy have been classified as "Essential Workers". At least down here in New Zealand.

(So glad we can still have a little fun over some things.)

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-52189013/jacinda-ardern-tooth-fairy-and-easter-bunny-are-essential-workers

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

10 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

Gov Wolf deserves a lot of credit for shutting down early (I think only WA shut down sooner). Plus Philadelphia is not as densely populated as many other places. It's #95 on the most densely populated cities--with more row home housing than high rises. (NYC Metro is all 8 of the top 8.)

 

The deaths tally for all of PA has been over 20 a single day, and it's been at 10-15 most days. I think you can look at California and PA and do a long look to figure out why they got this so right thus far. I don't have all the answers but it's real, especially in PA given that it's an urban center and so close to NYC. No need to crow yet but something is working there so far. 

 

The other stat to look at in PA is new hospitalizations. Here is that number in the last bunch of days:

 

 

That is really amazing. Source

wolf has just been following what DeWine does in Ohio, except doing it 3-4 days later.  I think DeWine is the guy who deserves a lot of credit for being in the lead with state responses. 

[Punching Bag]

6 hours ago, bbb said:

 

This is how I treat the Bills and now the market.

 

The weird thing to me is that I've heard that the ratings are higher when the Bills lose.  Who would want to listen to postgame more when they lose than when they win?!?

 

Many [loud] posters on main board.  Sometimes they are quiet as mice (mice nibbling on your electronics wires) when they have a big win.

[Delete This Account]

On 3/23/2020 at 6:11 PM, BillsFan4 said:

@Hapless Bills Fan re:our conversation before.

 

 

from the Associated Press. reliable source IMO.

 

Edited to insert link to actual story:
https://apnews.com/5dd6b30e03542b435e2716e3e3a483e4

 

[Edit: From discussion with AP sportswriter John Wawrow, AP's standard is that something must be verified by two primary sources before publication (primary meaning "I heard it said", not "I heard a guy who knows a guy who heard it"]

#Fact.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

hospitalizations drop for second day in a row in NYC - local DC TV news  no link sorry 

[John in Jax]

Seems that there’s light at the end of the tunnel! Hopefully by mid May we can get back to some semblance of normal. And maybe after all is said and done the “modelers” at IHME will get pink slips.

 

To date, I still haven’t seen/heard of a single case in all of the USA where someone needed a ventilator, but wasn’t able to get one. Yet every day on my TV, I continue to be told that the sky is falling.

Edited April 7, 2020 by John in Jax

[May Day 10]

The problem is, everyone cant go back to normal because then we are either right back here again.... or we just try to ignore it and the worst case scenario is realized.  Without a vaccine, or some sort of hammer treatment for the symptoms, we are pretty screwed.

 

They need to be finalizing a plan for testing, tracking, and containment

[John in Jax]

2 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

The problem is, everyone cant go back to normal because then we are either right back here again.... or we just try to ignore it and the worst case scenario is realized.  Without a vaccine, or some sort of hammer treatment for the symptoms, we are pretty screwed.

 

They need to be finalizing a plan for testing, tracking, and containment

Yes, agreed. That’s why I said “some semblance “ of normal, vs the complete shutdown we have now, which is ruining many, many lives. And the longer the shutdown goes on, the more lives will be ruined (economically, emotionally, & physically).

[Sundancer]

32 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Seems that there’s light at the end of the tunnel! Hopefully by mid May we can get back to some semblance of normal. And maybe after all is said and done the “modelers” at IMHE will get pink slips.

 

 

 

Not easy to model something that has never happened, with data from one dubious source. 

 

I hope the modelers can get the part where we lessen distancing right and also predict second wave right and make good recommendations. 

[May Day 10]

55 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Yes, agreed. That’s why I said “some semblance “ of normal, vs the complete shutdown we have now, which is ruining many, many lives. And the longer the shutdown goes on, the more lives will be ruined (economically, emotionally, & physically).

 

thats the $22 trillion dollar balancing act.  

 

It is such a dubious double-edged sword.  I am hoping that behind the odd bluster of Trump, behind the scenes smart people are coming up with a master plan to contain this thing and introduce people back into the workforce.  By Trump's  previous stated timeline, it sounded as if we are looking at April deaths and peaking, May getting a handle on the thing with tracking and containment, and June 1st we would begin to release people back into the wild, and I would think it would be based on kinds of work, proximity to others, and regional.  I'm not a Trump guy, but definitely rooting for the administration.  Shoving it on 50 individual governors will not work.  Need a centrally-based plan from the Federal government.  

 

We will see.  Italy, Spain, and to an extent, France are a bit of a canary in the coal mine for us.  Let's see how they try to open up their countries and what works and what doesnt.  I do wonder how the heck a city like NYC could possibly open back up.  So populated, people living on top of one another.  A city built on public transit.  

 

 

 

 

 

[K-9]

5 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

 

thats the $22 trillion dollar balancing act.  

 

It is such a dubious double-edged sword.  I am hoping that behind the odd bluster of Trump, behind the scenes smart people are coming up with a master plan to contain this thing and introduce people back into the workforce.  By Trump's  previous stated timeline, it sounded as if we are looking at April deaths and peaking, May getting a handle on the thing with tracking and containment, and June 1st we would begin to release people back into the wild, and I would think it would be based on kinds of work, proximity to others, and regional.  I'm not a Trump guy, but definitely rooting for the administration.  Shoving it on 50 individual governors will not work.  Need a centrally-based plan from the Federal government.  

 

We will see.  Italy, Spain, and to an extent, France are a bit of a canary in the coal mine for us.  Let's see how they try to open up their countries and what works and what doesnt.  I do wonder how the heck a city like NYC could possibly open back up.  So populated, people living on top of one another.  A city built on public transit.  

 

 

 

 

 

Unless you count the daily exhibit of that laminated  “presidential guidelines” poster, there has been no semblance of a centrally based plan since day one so it’s hard to imagine that coming now. It’s been on the individual states from the beginning. That said, I’ve been impressed with the work of several governors; governors of both political stripes who’ve been able to put aside petty partisan politics and focus on the work at hand. Governors like DeWine, Newsom, Inslee, Hogan, Wolf, Pritzker, Cuomo, and others made tough calls to shut down their states and enact strict social distancing measures to try and get ahead of this thing. I applaud that courage. 

[John in Jax]

Regarding the lack of a “centrally based plan”, maybe check out the Tenth Amendment to the US Constitution. I’m quite certain that is what the Federal government is trying to abide by (in allowing the states to exercise their own specified rights).

 

ETA: Just seeing that MLB is going to strive to start their season in May. Maybe in front of no fans. More to come, obviously. Good for them!

 

ETA #2: Not sure why people are giving me the “Ha ha” emoji here, because what I posted above is exactly the reason why there’s no central plan, as President Trump has been directly queried about this.....more than once over the past month I might add.....and he has directly cited the Constitution as his reason to not mandate states take a certain action.

Edited April 7, 2020 by John in Jax

[Sundancer]

14 minutes ago, John in Jax said:

Regarding the lack of a “centrally based plan”, maybe check out the Tenth Amendment to the US Constitution. I’m quite certain that is what the Federal government is trying to abide by (in allowing the states to exercise their own specified rights).

The Commerce Clause thinks the Tenth Amendment is cute. 

[K-9]

7 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

The Commerce Clause thinks the Tenth Amendment is cute. 

So does the General Welfare Clause. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

The problem is, everyone cant go back to normal because then we are either right back here again.... or we just try to ignore it and the worst case scenario is realized.  Without a vaccine, or some sort of hammer treatment for the symptoms, we are pretty screwed.

 

They need to be finalizing a plan for testing, tracking, and containment

that had been my concern for a while. By doing what we are doing now, once we go back to normal, aren’t we just going to push the spike to that point (likely during regular cold and flu season in the winter)?

 

my only hope on this is that the modeling is wrong, and I’m pretty sure it will be. I don’t believe the modeling can account for the likely vast majority of people who got the COVID19 with mild symptoms, were never tested, and have long since recovered. That number has to be through the roof.  

[Gray Beard]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

The problem is, everyone cant go back to normal because then we are either right back here again.... or we just try to ignore it and the worst case scenario is realized.  Without a vaccine, or some sort of hammer treatment for the symptoms, we are pretty screwed.

 

They need to be finalizing a plan for testing, tracking, and containment

Agree.  They should open things up in stages.  Schools, but not restaurants, or vice versa.  Parks and beaches, but not stadiums. Stores, but not movies.  Offices can be opened with guidelines to avoid crowded meetings.  Forehead thermometers can be used where possible to monitor for fevers.  The wearing of masks should be encouraged.  Etc.   Then the nature of the rebound spike can be assessed before more things are open.

[Sundancer]

13 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

Agree.  They should open things up in stages.  Schools, but not restaurants, or vice versa.  Parks and beaches, but not stadiums. Stores, but not movies.  Offices can be opened with guidelines to avoid crowded meetings.  Forehead thermometers can be used where possible to monitor for fevers.  The wearing of masks should be encouraged.  Etc.   Then the nature of the rebound spike can be assessed before more things are open.

 

We will reopen in the reverse that we closed I hope.

 

rural to metro

car transport to public

businesses where distancing is possible in part to those where its not

local schools to national universities

restaurants to conventions

local travel to regional to world

limited seating sports to full stadium

 

Or something like the above. Of course, without any guidance, this will be left up to every state. So if Iowa wants its huge state fair, they have it. 

 

I do not know how they reopen New York. It only works one way. Lots of crowds everywhere. 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Sundancer

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

13 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

Agree.  They should open things up in stages.  Schools, but not restaurants, or vice versa.  Parks and beaches, but not stadiums. Stores, but not movies.  Offices can be opened with guidelines to avoid crowded meetings.  Forehead thermometers can be used where possible to monitor for fevers.  The wearing of masks should be encouraged.  Etc.   Then the nature of the rebound spike can be assessed before more things are open.

 

one thing that has been bothering me

is that it seems everyone is now recommending against testing if you can self-treat at home. In PA, the advice is: “don’t get tested; self-quarantine and operate under the assumption you have it.” Isn’t the ability to get back to work And life dependent on having the data to understand who already got the virus? 

[Sundancer]

1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

one thing that has been bothering me

is that it seems everyone is now recommending against testing if you can self-treat at home. In PA, the advice is: “don’t get tested; self-quarantine and operate under the assumption you have it.” Isn’t the ability to get back to work And life dependent on having the data to understand who already got the virus? 

 

That's the advice because we lack the ability to test, going to the hospital is more dangerous now, and PPE for testers is so limited. 

 

In getting back to work, we should have so many tests lying around, they should be like breath mints. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Just now, Sundancer said:

 

That's the advice because we lack the ability to test, going to the hospital is more dangerous now, and PPE for testers is so limited. 

 

In getting back to work, we should have so many tests lying around, they should be like breath mints. 

I think the key may also be those antibody tests that are hopefully being developed. if you had it, then you go back into society without limitation. 

[Gray Beard]

1 minute ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

 

one thing that has been bothering me

is that it seems everyone is now recommending against testing if you can self-treat at home. In PA, the advice is: “don’t get tested; self-quarantine and operate under the assumption you have it.” Isn’t the ability to get back to work And life dependent on having the data to understand who already got the virus? 

Yup.

I think the blood test for antibodies is key. That lets you know if you’ve had it already.  The test exists and is just starting to be used. 
 

My son is a nurse in a smallish Upstate NY hospital.  He’s pretty mad that they don’t have the antibody test available so that people who’ve already had it can work the covid floor, and people who haven’t had it can work the regular floor.  

[ALF]

A $40 oxygen-measuring device can tell at-home coronavirus patients if they need to go to the ER

 

device known as a pulse oximeter, which can measure the oxygen levels in one's blood within seconds after being clipped to one's finger or another body part, is becoming a hot new commodity during the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Oximeters measure blood oxygen levels by sending photons of a specific wavelength through the skin and observing the measurements. They are most commonly used by people with respiratory issues, or by individuals in professions where monitoring oxygen levels is a paramount concern, such as athletes and pilots. In medicine, of course, they are in many different cases including for routine check-ups.

 

Because COVID-19 can lead to a drop in a patient's blood oxygen levels, the coronavirus era has brought on a minor oximeter craze. 

 

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/06/a-40-oxygen-measuring-device-can-tell-at-home-coronavirus-patients-if-they-need-to-go-to-the-er/

 

I've had this device that also takes your pulse on fingertip for a heart condition. 

 

Another quick temperature check is a ear thermometer . 

 

 Normal oxygen reading would be about 95% ,  below 90  start to check more often.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

New York virus deaths hit new daily high, but hospitalizations slow

 

 

  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ny-virus-deaths-hit-new-high-but-hospitalizations-slow-live-updates/ar-BB12gExd?OCID=ansmsnnews11

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, John in Jax said:

Seems that there’s light at the end of the tunnel! Hopefully by mid May we can get back to some semblance of normal. And maybe after all is said and done the “modelers” at IHME will get pink slips.

 

To date, I still haven’t seen/heard of a single case in all of the USA where someone needed a ventilator, but wasn’t able to get one. Yet every day on my TV, I continue to be told that the sky is falling.

 

So because you haven't personally seen or heard, you think everything is hunky dunky?  Unless you are a critical care physician or nurse or RT,

 

Cuomo has said that they're splitting ventilators, they're using anesthesia machines as ventilators, they're using CPAP/BIPAPs as ventilators.  Two of those 3 things are distinctly sub-optimal practices for patient recovery.   They aren't doing these things because they're not critically short.

Personally, if I'm a hospital that's running short, I'm not jabbering to the news media, I'm using all my time and energy to solve the problem.

Now I'm going off to kowtow to my spouse, I was told that if we averted catastrophy by stringent social distancing, instead of being all "yea!  the social distancing and stuff worked" people would be all blame-y about the models fortelling the need being incorrect.   I poo-poo'd that.  You're exhibit A of my need for heartfelt apology.

 

 

[John in Jax]

From a story on The NY Times website, which I just read, and was just updated 33 minutes ago (talking about NY city, the hottest spot in the country):

 

“The number of virus patients in hospitals increased 4 percent since Monday, the fourth straight day that it had grown 7 percent or less after growing at least 20 percent a day for weeks.

The number of patients on ventilators in intensive-care units increased, too, but at the smallest one-day rate in weeks, up 2 percent since Monday.

As of Tuesday, there were nearly 4,600 patients on ventilators in New York, far fewer than pessimistic projections in recent weeks said there might be. That has helped keep the state from exhausting its supply of ventilators.“

 

The link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

Edited April 7, 2020 by John in Jax

[Figster]

On 4/5/2020 at 6:38 PM, SDS said:

Does anyone know who’s set of predictions seem to portray the numbers? Also, it’s not apparent to me we are on track for the 100 - 240k fatality point. I am not following those numbers closely, it just feels like with the passage of time these things would have grown substantially.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/cdc-director-downplays-coronavirus-models-says-death-toll-033800213.html

 

 

[K-9]

11 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So because you haven't personally seen or heard, you think everything is hunky dunky?  Unless you are a critical care physician or nurse or RT,

 

Cuomo has said that they're splitting ventilators, they're using anesthesia machines as ventilators, they're using CPAP/BIPAPs as ventilators.  Two of those 3 things are distinctly sub-optimal practices for patient recovery.   They aren't doing these things because they're not critically short.

Personally, if I'm a hospital that's running short, I'm not jabbering to the news media, I'm using all my time and energy to solve the problem.

Now I'm going off to kowtow to my spouse, I was told that if we averted catastrophy by stringent social distancing, instead of being all "yea!  the social distancing and stuff worked" people would be all blame-y about the models fortelling the need being incorrect.   I poo-poo'd that.  You're exhibit A of my need for heartfelt apology.

 

 

God bless the modelers. I can’t think of a more thankless job. They are tasked with forecasting futures based on current data sets and their primary job is to forecast ranges, including worst case scenarios in order to maximize preparedness. And for good reason.

 

I’d think it was plainly obvious to their biggest critics that it’s always best to prepare for a worst case scenario and end up not needing that level of preparation vs. under preparing and being caught short. It’s like insurance is a foreign concept or something. 
 

I’d rather be informed by models based on data sets than a bunch of yes-man sycophants too afraid to tell me I have no clothes on.

[K-9]

Distressing to read that Japanese PM Abe will propose declaring a month long state of emergency in seven districts, including Tokyo and Osaka after a RENEWED surge of the virus in the country’s biggest cities. 
 

This underscores my concerns that in our haste to open things up, we make things worse. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Some humor 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The STRAIN in Spain falls mainly on the plain 
 

Edited April 7, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[BillsFan4]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So because you haven't personally seen or heard, you think everything is hunky dunky?  Unless you are a critical care physician or nurse or RT,

 

Cuomo has said that they're splitting ventilators, they're using anesthesia machines as ventilators, they're using CPAP/BIPAPs as ventilators.  Two of those 3 things are distinctly sub-optimal practices for patient recovery.   They aren't doing these things because they're not critically short.

Personally, if I'm a hospital that's running short, I'm not jabbering to the news media, I'm using all my time and energy to solve the problem.

 

 

Yep, Just read the IG report on the our hospitals experience responding to the covid pandemic. Here’s the link:

https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-06-20-00300.pdf

 

Quote

This information is based on brief telephone interviews (“pulse surveys”) conducted March 23–27, 2020, with hospital administrators from 323 hospitals across 46 States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, that were part of our random sample.

 

There are staff shortages, overcrowding/bed shortages, PPE shortages, shortages on all sorts of other medical equipment, cleaning equipment, food, etc. I’ve read doctors and nurses in NYC saying that they are so overcrowded that have patients dying in the hallways before they can even be moved to a room.

 

Quote

Findings at a Glance: Hospital Challenges:

-Severe Shortages of Testing Supplies and Extended Waits for Results

-Widespread Shortages of PPE

-Difficulty Maintaining Adequate Staffing and Supporting Staff

-Difficulty Maintaining and Expanding Hospital Capacity to Treat Patients

-Shortages of Critical Supplies, Materials, and Logistic Support

 

 

 

Just because they may not be totally out of 1 specific piece of medical equipment yet doesn’t mean that they won’t be soon (many of those 323 hospitals said that they anticipate running out of ventilators soon and don’t know how/where to get more) or that they aren’t facing very difficult problems from shortages in many other areas of need.

 

NYS had to get 1000 from China to keep from running out this coming week.

Other hospitals are reporting acquiring ventilators by unusual means or converting other less than ideal equipment to use as ventilators (as you mentioned) and can potentially spread covid19 (by aerosolizing it). It’s not like there’s an abundance of them or something. They’re taking drastic measures to ensure they have enough.

 

Quote

Anticipated Shortages of Ventilators

Anticipated shortages of ventilators were identified as a big challenge for hospitals. Hospitals reported an uncertain supply of standard, full-feature ventilators and in some cases used alternatives to support patients, including adapting anesthesia machines and using single-use emergency transport ventilators. Hospitals anticipated that ventilator shortages would pose difficult decisions about ethical allocation and liability, although at the time of our survey no hospital reported limiting ventilator use.
 

 

Secure Ventilators and Alternative Equipment to Support Patients

In anticipation of increased needs for ventilators, hospitals tried to obtain additional machines by renting ventilators, buying single-use emergency transport ventilators, or getting ventilators through an affiliated facility. Some hospitals reported converting other equipment, such as anesthesia machines, to use as ventilators.

 

Quote

To secure the necessary PPE, equipment, and supplies, hospitals reported turning to new, sometimes un-vetted, and non-traditional sources of supplies and medical equipment. To try to make existing supplies of PPE last, hospitals reported conserving and reusing single-use/disposable PPE, including using or exploring ultra-violet (UV) sterilization of masks or bypassing some sanitation processes by having staff place surgical masks over N95 masks. Hospitals also reported turning to non-medical-grade PPE, such as construction masks or handmade masks and gowns, which they worried may put staff at risk.

 

 

 

 

Interview with Doctors at NY Presbyterian hospital:

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kadiagoba/ventilator-shortage-new-york-hospitals-coronavirus

 

Quote

There’s a list about six [types of] patients that do not get put on a vent. ‘It makes no sense, they’re going to die soon anyway, so let them die’ — like that’s the crazy thought process. This **** hurts,” they said.

 

Quote

During the coronavirus crisis, the steady tone of a heart monitor that signals health officials need to intervene immediately might go unanswered. Somehow that sound, which most of us recognize only from episodes of Grey’s Anatomy, is now the backdrop for health care officials navigating a hospital’s intensive care unit.

 

“Normally in the real world, you never let that happen so you never really see that. That’s how it was on Saturday. You saw the heart rate go down, the blood pressure go down, the oxygen go down and then everything just flatlines and stops. Literally, we looked at each other and said ‘what else can we do? Nothing,’” the doctor recalled.

 

“And then guess what? We’re so morbid. We’re so jaded. Guess what’s the first thing we think of [when a patient dies]? ‘Oh ****, we got a new ventilator, let’s get somebody on the ventilator!’”

 

“I’ve never seen anything like this in my life. ... Never.”

That part about “we got a new ventilator, let’s get somebody on it” implies that they’d have already been on it if they had more.

 

Quote

“It’s scary and it’s tough,” the doctor said. “I think what’s scary is that the resources are missing. This is the richest country in the world and they’re out here talking about recycling masks. ... Now we’re using the same one all day. We’re using the same gown all day. You don’t really have the time to change, you’re just running from one patient to the next, one patient to the next, one patient to the next.”

 

And then there’s the pace at which the disease ravages each victim.

 

“Literally, I went out to the visiting area — because visitors aren’t allowed — to talk to the daughter. [The] mom is doing fine, her numbers are OK, we’re just going to watch her and we’re going to see,” they said. Within six minutes of the update, the doctor had to provide another update: “I had to intubate your mother.”

 

It’s “that fast. That fast,” thye said.

 

It happened a second time, to a different patient, on the same day.

 

“I go out to tell the husband ‘OK, everything looks good.’ I go back in, oxygen levels drop, we have to intubate her. ... The crazy thing is how fast people go down and die. Literally, like you walk out and go to the bathroom and pee and come back and you’re running around and your patient is dying.”

 

 

“The other day I felt defeated. The patient came in on a code. We looked at each other. The patient had to die. There was nothing we could do.” Any feelings of guilt were upended by the next patient to come through the doors when they had to tell EMS they had no ventilators. EMS said they had nowhere else to go. The patient died.

 

 

Read this survey of 250 healthcare workers and all the shortages they’re facing:

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/system-doomed-doctors-nurses-sound-nbc-news-coronavirus-survey-n1164841

 

 

NYC’s morgues are also over capacity. They had to set up something like 50+ new mobile morgues (and those are reportedly already almost at capacity too). They’re talking about soon having to temporarily bury people who died from covid in the local parks. And They say this next next week is probably going to be the toughest yet. I’m hopeful things are trending in the right direction but we have a long way to go before we are out of the woods.

[LeGOATski]

7 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

Not easy to model something that has never happened, with data from one dubious source. 

 

I hope the modelers can get the part where we lessen distancing right and also predict second wave right and make good recommendations. 

We've had models since the SARS outbreak. Since the first US case in January, the government should've operated under worst case scenario until better numbers came in, adjusting accordingly as time went on.

 

When they were initially trying to downplay it, they took best case models and told themselves it would only kill 5000 people. Lol

 

I'd like to think the next time this happens we'll operate under worst case scenarios initially. But its always a political/economic question more than it is a death count question.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

that had been my concern for a while. By doing what we are doing now, once we go back to normal, aren’t we just going to push the spike to that point (likely during regular cold and flu season in the winter)?

 

my only hope on this is that the modeling is wrong, and I’m pretty sure it will be. I don’t believe the modeling can account for the likely vast majority of people who got the COVID19 with mild symptoms, were never tested, and have long since recovered. That number has to be through the roof.  

 

Is it through the roof, or isn't it?   

 

That's really the unknown question, and it makes a HUGE difference to accurately forecasting what will happen when social distancing is relaxed.

 

China early on said 1-2% asymptomatic.  Now they're saying more.  S. Korea, which I believe most people place more faith in than in China, says 20% asymptomatic.  Iceland says 50%.  Town of Vo, Italy, more like 30-50% asymptomatic or presymptomatic.

 

We badly need widespread serology testing to determine this.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

God bless the modelers. I can’t think of a more thankless job. They are tasked with forecasting futures based on current data sets and their primary job is to forecast ranges, including worst case scenarios in order to maximize preparedness. And for good reason.

 

I’d think it was plainly obvious to their biggest critics that it’s always best to prepare for a worst case scenario and end up not needing that level of preparation vs. under preparing and being caught short. It’s like insurance is a foreign concept or something. 
 

I’d rather be informed by models based on data sets than a bunch of yes-man sycophants too afraid to tell me I have no clothes on.

 

What has to be understood, is that the people doing the modeling are asked to consider a number of different inputs and assumptions.

 

They make their models accordingly, stating the assumptions that go into each model clearly.

 

Then leaders and politicians choose which model they wish to publicize, but don't always state the assumptions upon which the model is based, clearly.

 

So, for example, if the model publicized assumes a 50% reduction in transmission due to social distancing, but people take it so seriously that we actually achieve a 75% reduction in transmission due to social distancing, the model is seen as "wrong" - but there is probably a model out there which started with different assumptions, and would match what actually happened much better.