Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Punching Bag]

 

You will find this on many sites. First place I saw it was on a site of Dr Monika Langeh, a Kashmiri Pandit doctor.

 

Most of the time it is in social media comments but a number of other websites have it as well.

 

 

https://www.maine.gov/ems/node/179

[Cripple Creek]

Think we've made a lasting impression on our world?  Think again.

 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/crocodiles-take-over-oaxaca-beaches/

[LeGOATski]

40 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Think we've made a lasting impression on our world?  Think again.

 

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/crocodiles-take-over-oaxaca-beaches/

At a beach that just had a crocodile attack in November. 

 

No *****...

[Cripple Creek]

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

At a beach that just had a crocodile attack in November. 

 

No *****...

You've seen the other similar stories, I assume?  Or, are you one who overvalues his existence? 

[LeGOATski]

1 minute ago, Cripple Creek said:

You've seen the other similar stories, I assume?  Or, are you one who overvalues his existence? 

Animals are stretching out a bit more. This is not expected?

 

I'm happy for them, lol.

[Hardhatharry]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Animals are stretching out a bit more. This is not expected?

 

I'm happy for them, lol.

Yea they do that everywhere it's why in some states they have hunting season to push them back.  Where I lived in Jersey they had protected parks but every few years they allowed bow hunting on certain days to push back the deer population, the parks are close to houses and major roads so Bows only.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Hardhatharry

[LeGOATski]

2 minutes ago, Hardhatharry said:

Yea they do that everywhere it's why in some states they have hunting season to push them back.  Where I lived in Jersey they had protected parks but every few years they allowed bow hunting on certain days to push back the deer population, the parks are close to houses and major roads so Bows only.

Yeah, its necessary. We gotta do our part to maintain the balance.

(Circle of Life plays in the background)

[Punching Bag]

 

My sister in WNY called me because I have talked to her since she last called me and was worried.

 

I talked to her and found out she is under quarantine with the virus but evidently got a mild version without the fever or respiration issues.

She got massive headaches, exhaustion and chills.

 

Last week Tuesday the founder of the company came down to floor and he is elderly so she helped him with coat and he gave her a hug.  She has treated her like family since she worked there.  He appeared a bit ill to her.  He died Wednesday from a fast moving virus in him.  His son said when working now everyone will need to wear masks.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

My sister in WNY called me because I have talked to her since she last called me and was worried.

 

I talked to her and found out she is under quarantine with the virus but evidently got a mild version without the fever or respiration issues.

She got massive headaches, exhaustion and chills.

 

Last week Tuesday the founder of the company came down to floor and he is elderly so she helped him with coat and he gave her a hug.  She has treated her like family since she worked there.  He appeared a bit ill to her.  He died Wednesday from a fast moving virus in him.  His son said when working now everyone will need to wear masks.

 

Sorry to hear about the company founder's death

 

Glad to hear your sis seems to be whuppin' it.  Tell her to breath deeply and move around, even if she is so exhausted it takes minutes to cross the floor.  Lungs need movement to work correctly.

[T&C]

The shortage seems to have ended, in most places anyways. On the shelf at all of the stores around here.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

[Sundancer]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don’t know if this sentiment is right as a reaction to the guidelines, though in general I get it. 

With respect to the guidelines, in the Northesst plus MI and IL...and for southern states, they are not close to phase 1 by definition unless cases slow starting today. They can’t meet two weeks of case declines or 2 weeks of pct pos case declines. For as good as PA can feel about its success, at best it has just a couple days of the former. So those states aren’t ready to change a thing. 
 

Some Midwest and western states though, are ready for Phase 1 and that’s a slight change from where we are now. It may take many weeks at Phase 1 before phase 2, where I feel things start to feel like what will be the new normal, resumes. 
 

My instinct is that governors will feel pressure to get to phase 1 because that’s at least a limping economy, but we will be stuck there for 6-8 weeks in places with large metros. 
 

Phase 3 could be a long time coming and I think we will end up bouncing between 1 and 2 a lot. Governors should feel relieved that the feds took a lot of this off their backs and they can add some implementation details but politically hide behind these guidelines as states open and close. 
 

I don’t think NYC metro can follow these by the way. It will need a much more careful approach. With 50% of the entire US impact, it needs its own guidelines with more details. 
 

A website will probably be up by the end of the day with phasing grades for states and maybe cities. The NY Times data analysis sites have been stellar and I bet they have this soon. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

 

FBI: Coronavirus provides criminals opportunities at 'breathtaking' speed

By Bradford Betz | Fox News

 

The FBI on Wednesday warned that the public health and economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic are providing criminals with illicit opportunities at “breathtaking” speed.

The agency said a wave of criminals has emerged in recent months as U.S. officials scramble to coordinate relief efforts.

 

Although “swindles, scams, and outright thefts” are a regular feature of major disasters, the novel coronavirus has provided “criminal opportunities on a scale likely to dwarf anything seen before,” the FBI said in a statement, adding: “The speed at which criminals are devising and executing their schemes is truly breathtaking.”

 

The FBI has uncovered a plethora of criminal activity in connection with the pandemic ranging from sham treatments and vaccines to bogus investment opportunities in non-existent medical companies.

 

Crooks have been busted for impersonating doctors demanding payment for treatments. Scammers have used websites and mobile apps to implant malware to steal financial and personal information.

 

Other criminals have used COVID-19 as a lure to deploy ransomware for payments – a practice the FBI derided as “homicidal in the midst of a global pandemic.”

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-coronavirus-criminal-opportunities

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

 

[Greg S]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Sundancer said:

I don’t know if this sentiment is right as a reaction to the guidelines, though in general I get it. 

 

Not intended I think as a reaction to the guidelines.  More intended as a reaction to this:


It should be noted that the photographer has stated he is very uncomfortable with the comparison to zombies:

                       "They are people. They have a right to protest and have their voice heard."
 

I would have more respect with them exercising their right to protest if they were doing so in a socially responsible way, so as to make sure they don't add to the epidemic that is causing the restrictions they are protesting against (that's convoluted, but hopefully understandable)

And this:
https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/health-med-fit/coronavirus/parson-extends-stay-at-home-order-to-may-3-says-state-making-plans-to-reopen/article_594a2719-864d-58ee-af01-67a19a69112c.html?fbclid=IwAR3f_Q5kJQ4zz0oAXThtf5v53RIWv60ki78jF23C0tOePB1JFLprl62-bCY#utm_source=stltoday.com&utm_campaign=%2Fnewsletter-templates%2Fbreaking&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_content=c5590820a663cb96ab50a2bdbd89f76bb26c24f7
 

On Facebook, [State Senator] O’Laughlin has called extensions of those orders by other governors “ridiculous” and said rural areas like her sprawling district, covering much of the northeast part of the state, should be treated differently than urban areas.

“One of the major problems with the ‘one size fits all’ lockdown based on the worst-hit sections of the country is that rural areas are not experiencing any issues with the virus. Treating major cities and rural areas the same is a ludicrous approach,” she wrote in a Wednesday post.

 

According to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services, 44 residents of O’Laughlin’s district have tested positive for COVID-19. One person in Linn County has died from the virus.

 

Adair County, home of Truman State University in Kirksville, has the most cases with 12, out of the 14 counties she represents.

Here's a map of Missouri covid-19 cases by population.  O'Laughlin represents the NE corner of the state.  It can be seen that two of her counties have rates of infection comparable to Kansas City (the small blobs above the straight line at the W border of the state) or other more urban areas.  I wouldn't bet the rent that the others are clear.

A number of these diagnoses are recent.  Epidemiologists at U of T have calculated that if a county has one positive test, it goes from a 9% chance to a 50% chance of having an undetected outbreak circulating.   (The linked study is outdated - from April 3.  Scotland county, one of the "comparable to Kansas City" counties, had 0 cases at that time and shows as grey)

 

These areas have very little in the way of hospitals and less in the way of ICU beds.  They typically have little better healthcare than inner city areas that are being hard hit.  Similarly, a lot of the residents are older, and have underlying health conditions - smoke, high blood pressure, diabetes. 

It can be seen there are also several other predominantly rural counties with rates of infection comparable to the cities in MO - Saline County in the center of the state, and Perry County.  (I think, but don't know, that those are truck-stop related)

 

Will ~two more weeks suffice to snuff any outbreaks out?  They might if there were a clear National message "steady as you go, keep the parachute on for now". 

I don't think that's the message people in those counties are getting.  I think they heard that packed churches on Easter would be a beautiful thing, and that it's time to go back to work as soon as possible, that covid-19 is a "big city" problem that is NIMBY.

 

Quote

With respect to the guidelines, in the Northeast plus MI and IL...and for southern states, they are not close to phase 1 by definition unless cases slow starting today. They can’t meet two weeks of case declines or 2 weeks of pct pos case declines. For as good as PA can feel about its success, at best it has just a couple days of the former. So those states aren’t ready to change a thing. 
 

Some Midwest and western states though, are ready for Phase 1 and that’s a slight change from where we are now. It may take many weeks at Phase 1 before phase 2, where I feel things start to feel like what will be the new normal, resumes. 
 

My instinct is that governors will feel pressure to get to phase 1 because that’s at least a limping economy, but we will be stuck there for 6-8 weeks in places with large metros.

 

I'm just curious as to which Midwest and Western states you feel this applies to.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines/trump-unveils-three-stage-process-for-states-to-end-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKBN21Y31W

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines-fac-idUSKBN21Y3HL

1. States should have a “downward trajectory” of COVID-19 cases for a 14-day period before reopening, or a downward trajectory of positive tests for the same time period, given flat or increasing testing levels.

2. U.S. states have core responsibility for testing and tracing citizens. A list of “core state preparedness responsibilities” includes the “ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites” and ensure “surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases” and COVID-19 positive people are traced.
 

3. Phase 1 of the reopening recommends that schools and daycare facilities remain closed and that people maintain social distancing in public. Businesses should continue to encourage teleworking, and meetings of more than 10 people should be discouraged.

Event spaces like movie theaters can reopen, with “strict” social distancing measures in place. Elective surgeries can resume, on an outpatient basis.

Non-essential travel and visits to senior living facilities should remain suspended. Gyms can reopen, with proper sanitation and distances, but bars should not.

As far as point 2: States have vastly different levels of public health (and health in general) infrastructure.  But we're all geographically connected. Many people cross state lines every day in their normal lives.  So you have citizens in State B being affected by the actions of neighbor states.   And you still have states bidding against each other for testing supplies and PPE, and against the Federal government in some instances.  This is simply not a practical (or IMHO effective)  way to manage a public health emergency.

Also....In a functional economy, US citizens travel widely across the country in the practice of their essential jobs.  Truck drivers and pilots for two groups.  Businesspeople - Pharma companies working on a potential covid-19 cure may have sites working on it in 5 different states, some but not all work can be done remotely.  How does it make sense to have contact tracing be the responsibility of the State, when in an open, functional economy it is of necessity inter-state?

 

 

 

[Sundancer]

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines/trump-unveils-three-stage-process-for-states-to-end-coronavirus-shutdown-idUSKBN21Y31W

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-guidelines-fac-idUSKBN21Y3HL

1. States should have a “downward trajectory” of COVID-19 cases for a 14-day period before reopening, or a downward trajectory of positive tests for the same time period, given flat or increasing testing levels.

2. U.S. states have core responsibility for testing and tracing citizens. A list of “core state preparedness responsibilities” includes the “ability to quickly set up safe and efficient screening and testing sites” and ensure “surveillance sites are screening for asymptomatic cases” and COVID-19 positive people are traced.
 

3. Phase 1 of the reopening recommends that schools and daycare facilities remain closed and that people maintain social distancing in public. Businesses should continue to encourage teleworking, and meetings of more than 10 people should be discouraged.

Event spaces like movie theaters can reopen, with “strict” social distancing measures in place. Elective surgeries can resume, on an outpatient basis.

Non-essential travel and visits to senior living facilities should remain suspended. Gyms can reopen, with proper sanitation and distances, but bars should not.

As far as point 2: States have vastly different levels of public health (and health in general) infrastructure.  But we're all geographically connected. Many people cross state lines every day in their normal lives.  So you have citizens in State B being affected by the actions of neighbor states.   And you still have states bidding against each other for testing supplies and PPE, and against the Federal government in some instances.  This is simply not a practical (or IMHO effective)  way to manage a public health emergency.
 

 

 

The contact tracing is the big hole in this. There's no way it's going to happen quickly, or by state. I see that continuing to be nearly 100% ignored. Federal leadership would be welcome here but it isn't coming, so these guidelines will probably be what we have going forward.

 

Quote

Also....In a functional economy, US citizens travel widely across the country in the practice of their essential jobs.  Truck drivers and pilots for two groups.  Businesspeople - Pharma companies working on a potential covid-19 cure may have sites working on it in 5 different states, some but not all work can be done remotely.  How does it make sense to have contact tracing be the responsibility of the State, when in an open, functional economy it is of necessity inter-state?

 

With respect to this, it's not until there's sustained downwards shift that travel is supposed to happen. And I don't think businesses will be rushing to do this. 

 

You asked about which states are ready. I would refer to the RPI map. The darker blue states may be either ready or close to it. The others are not. I am not making a specific judgment on a specific state because I can't see each state's trajectory, but just noting that by the guidelines (minus tracing, which is probably a lost cause sadly), some are likely ready to enter phase 1, with maybe some lighter blue states being ~2 weeks away. 

 

https://covidminder.idea.rpi.edu/

 

 

***

The US I believe is currently in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are. The "leap day" in the below data was the NYC reclassification day for the 3700 deaths, after which all deaths are counted in the same way. If you spread that spike backwards weighted towards more recent days when more people were dying, we have been more or less around 2000 deaths for about 10 days. No remarkable decline yet sadly. My numbers instinct says that once we are seeing this below about 1300 for 3 days in a row, we can feel like we're making good progress on deaths.

 

 

If we were phasing the US according to the Opening America guidelines and ignoring the tracking/tracing requirement, we would likely be 4 weeks away from a Phase 1 attempt.  

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

25 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

The contact tracing is the big hole in this. There's no way it's going to happen quickly, or by state. I see that continuing to be nearly 100% ignored. Federal leadership would be welcome here but it isn't coming, so these guidelines will probably be what we have going forward.

 

If you are correct about contact tracing not happening, then strictly from an epidemiological standpoint, reopening attempts will result in a surge of cases and will fail.  There WILL be cases that pop up.  They WILL be transmitted by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. 

Unless we can test everyone in the US on a regular basis (unlikely), contact tracing is the ONLY way to achieve disease containment.  This tenet of epidemiology is literally written in blood.

[Sundancer]

26 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If you are correct about contact tracing not happening, then strictly from an epidemiological standpoint, reopening attempts will result in a surge of cases and will fail.  There WILL be cases that pop up.  They WILL be transmitted by people who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. 

Unless we can test everyone in the US on a regular basis (unlikely), contact tracing is the ONLY way to achieve disease containment.  This tenet of epidemiology is literally written in blood.

I think we will have ample testing soon, but I suspect tracking will be ad hoc where people inform their employers and people they visited, who will then get tested, but not a wider group of contacts who are strangers. 
 

I am resigning myself to the no contact tracing because so many people are freaking out about it. I of course favor it and am both surprised and happy to see the Trump admin pushing for it. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

34 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

You asked about which states are ready. I would refer to the RPI map. The darker blue states may be either ready or close to it.

 

I believe this is a map of deaths.  Since deaths represent a tiny fraction of cases, and since community spread may be driven by asymptomatic cases, I respectfully submit that's not the parameter to monitor.  There needs to be enough testing (<5% positive, say) and there needs to be a decline in cases.

 

Otherwise you're looking at the tip of the tail, and trying to diagnose what's happening to the dog.  The position of the tail does have some bearing on what's going on with the dog, sure, but it's a very very incomplete picture. 

So is looking at statewide data.  It hides what's happening in different areas.

 

34 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

The US I believe is currently in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are.

 

Again, I don't think it's too useful to look US data overall.   Too big a picture, blurs what's happening.  But let's do it and let's look at deaths.

Deaths in Spain and Italy are on the "double every 3-4 weeks" trajectory. &nbsp;US is still on the "doubling every 8 days" trajectory.

 

 

To look at a different way, here is a graph of rates from the same source.  Italy and Spain are flattened, near Iran and S. Korea.  The US, Germany, and France rates are trending down, but no, they are not in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are (the deaths doubling every 3-4 weeks), not yet.  (and that doubling every month, that ain't quite level)

 

States:

Missouri deaths still doubling every 7 days.  Kansas, 8 days.  Iowa, 7 days.  Arkansas, 9 days. Texas, 7 days.  Nevada, 8 days. Colorado, 10 days.  Arizona, Florida 9 days.

I don't think any of those states are 2 weeks away, and I think if the details of what's occurring within each state are looked at, we see areas in each state that are further away.

 

The model that has the favorable deaths is based upon current social distancing restrictions remaining in place until the end of May.

Not 2 weeks.  Not the beginning of May.  The end of May.

 

 

 

 

[BillsFan4]

https://www.scribd.com/document/456756506/Trump-releases-Opening-Up-America-Again-guidelines

 

Its nice to see some federal guidelines, but they’ve left me with a lot of questions.

 

What I don’t understand about these guidelines is that they made it sound like a lot of this stuff is already in place when they said some states are ready to open up “literally tomorrow”. 

 

I am not aware of a single state that has been able to test everyone that has symptoms (maybe I just missed it?). I’m not aware of a single state that has a contact tracing program, or temperature screening at workplaces (etc). I don’t know of any state with ample stockpiles of PPE (but I’m not sure on that).

 

And if no state is even able to test everyone with covid symptoms, let alone doing widespread testing of potentially asymptomatic people, how can they even be sure that their case numbers are truly trending down? especially if up to 20% of people with COVID19 are asymptomatic. 

 

 

I just don't see how states can accomplish some of the stuff they’re being asked to do, and I don’t see how it’s reasonable to assume they can ramp these programs up even further when they’re already failing at it. Some State governors are already saying that they are capped out on their testing ability without help from the federal government. How can you just assume that states can scale up without federal help?  Same with the PPE and other equipment. States have been trying for weeks now to fill their PPE needs without success.

 

How can states put in a legit contact tracing program? Seems like something that would have to be at the national level, with all the interstate travel. What do they do if/when a COVID19 patient they’re tracing crosses state lines? Especially if the bordering state doesn’t have a contact tracing program? 

How do you handle a state that’s in phase one bordered by a state still in early stages?

 

 

 

Also, I was surprised to see some of the businesses allowed to reopen in phase one:

 

Quote

phase one guidelines for specific types of employers:

 

-Large venues (sit down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols.

-elective surgeries can resume on outpatient basis

-gyms can open if they adhere to physical distancing and sanitation protocols

 

What do those strict protocols look like? How will they be enforced? How is it even possible to achieve strict social distancing in some of these places?

Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4

[CountDorkula]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I believe this is a map of deaths.  Since deaths represent a tiny fraction of cases, and since community spread may be driven by asymptomatic cases, I respectfully submit that's not the parameter to monitor.  There needs to be enough testing (<5% positive, say) and there needs to be a decline in cases.

 

Otherwise you're looking at the tip of the tail, and trying to diagnose what's happening to the dog.  The position of the tail does have some bearing on what's going on with the dog, sure, but it's a very very incomplete picture. 

So is looking at statewide data.  It hides what's happening in different areas.

 

 

Again, I don't think it's too useful to look US data overall.   Too big a picture, blurs what's happening.  But let's do it and let's look at deaths.

Deaths in Spain and Italy are on the "double every 3-4 weeks" trajectory. &nbsp;US is still on the "doubling every 8 days" trajectory.

 

 

To look at a different way, here is a graph of rates from the same source.  Italy and Spain are flattened, near Iran and S. Korea.  The US, Germany, and France rates are trending down, but no, they are not in the "level phase" where Italy and Spain are (the deaths doubling every 3-4 weeks), not yet.  (and that doubling every month, that ain't quite level)

 

States:

Missouri deaths still doubling every 7 days.  Kansas, 8 days.  Iowa, 7 days.  Arkansas, 9 days. Texas, 7 days.  Nevada, 8 days. Colorado, 10 days.  Arizona, Florida 9 days.

I don't think any of those states are 2 weeks away, and I think if the details of what's occurring within each state are looked at, we see areas in each state that are further away.

 

The model that has the favorable deaths is based upon current social distancing restrictions remaining in place until the end of May.

Not 2 weeks.  Not the beginning of May.  The end of May.

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe yopu can help me out, but the whole number of deaths thing I dont know what to beleive anymore.

 

i've seen stuff floating around that they are adding thousands to the death count even though they never tested positive for the virus. Have you seen/heard that?

 

I guess im at the point if i don't know if i'm overreacting, under reacting or being normal?

I also don't know who/what to believe anymore.

 

 

[BillsFan4]

Edit - delete. I don’t think the article was accurate.

Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Jrb1979]

10 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-surges-in-some-asian-countries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743

Reported U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Reach Record 4,591 in 24 Hours

 

Wow. ?

 

I  don’t think any other country in the world has come close to 4000 deaths in a single day. IIRC i think the closest any other country has come is about 1500 in a day (and I believe that was during northern italy’s peak). 

I feel so bad for my neighbors to the south. We are in a scary time and I am scared for what may happen if they rush to open up the economy so quick. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

Maybe you can help me out, but the whole number of deaths thing I dont know what to beleive anymore.

I've seen stuff floating around that they are adding thousands to the death count even though they never tested positive for the virus. Have you seen/heard that?

 

Yes, and to figure out what's going on it probably makes some sense.  Here's why:

 

-In both Italy, and NYC, they stopped testing people, even people with symptoms.  Basically, they told everyone "unless your covid-19 symptoms include can't breathe , don't come to the hospital, we won't test you; call your doctor and stay home". 

                    -Good reasons for this:

                                 -if someone came to the hospital who had seasonal flu, or a cold, or an asthmatic attack, they would very likely get covid-19 on top of it

                                 -they were short on PPE and the testing protocol is 1 set of PPE and 1 throat swab per test (to avoid infecting people who don't have covid-19)

                                 -they had no space to treat even people who were quite ill and would normally be admitted.  They would give them a treatment sheet & tell them call your doctor

-But some of those people later died at home, or in nursing homes.  Based on their symptoms, it is very very likely that they died of covid-19

 

So you're the public health doctor trying to sort out what is going on with the epidemic - do you count those people, or don't you?

 

There is something called a "seasonal death rate" every year.  If an area is seeing deaths far in excess of the 'seasonal death rate', and there are symptoms to justify that the person probably had covid-19 although untested, IMO it makes sense to count the deaths as covid-19 related.  But arguments can be made either way.

 

This is happening in China and in Italy and Spain, by the way - there are a lot of "excess seasonal deaths" over last year of people who weren't tested and counted as covid-19 cases, but who had some reason to believe they were - they were in a nursing home where others died from covid-19, or they were under a doctor's treatment for covid-19 symptoms albeit at home etc etc.  It tends to happen whenever there is a disease outbreak that is beyond what the local health care system can contain.

In Italy, there are studies looking at the seasonal death rate in the areas hard hit by covid-19 and saying the actual death toll may be 2-4x higher.

 

Quote

I guess im at the point if i don't know if i'm overreacting, under reacting or being normal?

I also don't know who/what to believe anymore.

 

I probably can't help you there.  I kind of make up my mind the same way I always have - is something being consistently reported by several sources, especially sources that are rated as not much bias and pref. bias in opposite directions?  Can it be independently verified and how?  That kind of thing

 

 

[Sundancer]

31 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-surges-in-some-asian-countries-that-had-been-lightly-hit-11587031743

Reported U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Reach Record 4,591 in 24 Hours

 

Wow. ?

 

I  don’t think any other country in the world has come close to 4000 deaths in a single day. IIRC i think the closest any other country has come is about 1500 in a day (and I believe that was during northern italy’s peak). 

We have only had over 2000 deaths in a day a few times so 4600 in 24 hours is just a counting anomaly, not an actual 24 hour spike. If we actually had 4500 deaths in a 24 hour period in the last few days, the preceding or following 24 would be much less than 2000, and that hasn’t happened. 
 

The WSJ could also be conflating the 3700 death increase from Weds into these numbers. Whatever it is, it doesn’t align with numbers reported from other sources. 

[Warcodered]

 

[BillsFan4]

I think some of these tracking sites that use estimates may be over reporting COVID19 deaths. But I think the confirmed death totals are most likely being under reported.

 

Many states are only counting COVID19 deaths if you tested positive before death. Morticians are asking for tests to confirm cause of death and being told no.

Its why you saw NYS add a “probable death” category (that added 3700+ deaths). Before that they were only counting deaths in those w/confirmed positive tests before death. So that didn’t take into account things like the many DOA (dead on arrival) paramedic calls every day, where the suspected chase of death was COVID19. 

 

I think confirmed covid19 deaths are likely being under reported world wide. 

Wuhan, China just doubled their reported death totals yesterday. Italy is still under reporting covid deaths. I’m sure it’s the same in other countries too.

 

13 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

We have only had over 2000 deaths in a day a few times so 4600 in 24 hours is just a counting anomaly, not an actual 24 hour spike. If we actually had 4500 deaths in a 24 hour period in the last few days, the preceding or following 24 would be much less than 2000, and that hasn’t happened. 
 

The WSJ could also be conflating the 3700 death increase from Weds into these numbers. Whatever it is, it doesn’t align with numbers reported from other sources. 

That makes more sense. Yeah, I saw that headline on WSJ and said “holy ****!”. 

 

Edit - I just checked that world o meter site and it shows about 2100 for yesterday. While obviously still a devastating total, it seems more in line with previous days totals. I thought that a spike of over 2000 over the previous day seemed extreme.

Edited April 17, 2020 by BillsFan4

[Sundancer]

Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. 
 

I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well.  
 

I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” 
 

The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. 

6 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

.

 

That makes more sense. Yeah, I saw that headline on WSJ and said “holy ****!”. 

 

Edit - I just checked that world o meter site and it shows about 2100 for yesterday. While obviously still a devastating total, it seems more in line with previous days totals. I thought that a spike of over 2000 over the previous day seemed extreme.

I read the WSJ every day. That was the first story I ever entered a comment on. It is terrible reporting for what was NY/NJ “reporting”  deaths for two days in the same 24 hour window (1pm report one day, 1230 report day following equals 2x deaths in a calendar day but really is 2 days of deaths) or has something to do with the 3700 death dump. Either way, it’s clearly a bull#### number manipulated to grab a headline. It’s really uncharacteristic for the Journal to report like that. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Sundancer

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. 
 

I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well.  
 

I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” 
 

The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. 

 

I think we're in general agreement.   I can't say that I disagree with you about the likelihood of contact tracing being ready or happening.

 

Epidemiologically, it's not optional, though.  Containment literally can not happen effectively without it, especially for a disease where something like 1/5-1/2 may be asymptomatic.

 

Realize that "essential travel" is already happening now - truckers are still driving interstate carrying needed goods, airplane pilots are still flying, and some people are still traveling on needed business - for one example, pharmaceutical manufacturing in this day and age particularly for biological treatments and vaccines, usually involves collaboration in 3-4 groups in different states or even different countries.  A lot of work can be done remotely, but eventually you need "boots on the ground" to get things right.

All politicians need to be accountable and take responsibility for all their words right now, that's all I'll say.  One can't promote one thing in a press conference or briefing and say something else on Twitter, then deflect responsibility for the effects of those tweets.

[BillsFan4]

4 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

Hapless, I’m not going to block Quote the charts but I think we have been in general agreement that the US is a couple weeks behind Italy and Spain (so we have hoped) and if so, I would expect our charts to resemble those you presented in 2 weeks. 
 

I would also reiterate that I like the guidelines. If an area is not ready because the data shows it is not ready, no phase 1. It has to wait. So my two week gut feel above has to be data supported before we make a move to open. If what I think will be ready in 2 weeks is not ready until 4, oh well.  
 

I am starting to doubt if we as a country have the backbone to follow those guidelines though, especially when the person supposedly promoting them is Tweeting “Free Michigan.” 
 

The premature opening of the country will kill a lot of people and also make the last month of shutdown almost a complete waste of time. It will be interesting to hear from Birx and Fauci today. 

I read the WSJ every day. That was the first story I ever entered a comment on. It is terrible reporting for what was NYC “reporting” all their deaths in the same 24 hour window or has something to do with the 3700 death dump. Either way, it’s clearly a bull#### number manipulated to grab a headline. It’s really uncharacteristic for the Journal to report like that. 

Yeah that’s why I posted it. I should have checked into it first, but it was the WSJ. They’re usually pretty trustworthy.

[Jrb1979]

I look at what they are doing here in Canada and wish they would follow that model in the U.S. I am afraid of the jump in deaths and cases with such this rush to open the economy  They haven't even begun to discuss any guidelines on how to open the economy. Summer is the earliest they have discussed in lifting some restrictions. The government here is going by whatever the health experts are saying. They don't expect to get back to fully normal til there is a treatment or a vaccine. 

[Bad Things]

3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

I look at what they are doing here in Canada and wish they would follow that model in the U.S. I am afraid of the jump in deaths and cases with such this rush to open the economy  They haven't even begun to discuss any guidelines on how to open the economy. Summer is the earliest they have discussed in lifting some restrictions. The government here is going by whatever the health experts are saying. They don't expect to get back to fully normal til there is a treatment or a vaccine. 

Same here in New Zealand.  Our PM is following the advice of the health professionals. 

I am so worried about what is happening back in America.  Although I live half a world away, all of my family and friends (and you, Bills fans, reading this!) are back there... I wish you all nothing but the best.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Bad Things

[Gray Beard]

1 minute ago, Bad Things said:

Same here in New Zealand.  Our PM is following the advice of the health professionals. 

I am so worried about what is happening back in America.  Although I live half a world away, all of my family and friends (and you!) are back there... I wish you all nothing but the best.

@Hapless Bills Fan

 

have you seen this one? 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/

[BillsFan4]

 

This picture appears to be real from what I can tell. I went to the action news Jacksonville site and they have a live web camera from Jacksonville beach pier and you could see a bunch of people walking.

 

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/weather/skycams/

 

Apparently starting today the beaches are open from 6-11am and 5-8pm every day, but only for exercise. 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

This picture appears to be real from what I can tell. I went to the action news Jacksonville site and they have a live web camera from Jacksonville beach pier and you could see a bunch of people walking.

 

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/weather/skycams/

 

Apparently starting today the beaches are open from 6-11am and 5-8pm every day, but only for exercise. 

 

 

 

 

Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up.  People need exercise and sunshine.

Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion

[SDS]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up.  People need exercise and sunshine.

Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion

we closed ours because people wouldn’t. 

[Jrb1979]

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Seems reasonable to me as long as people respect it and ideally, mask up.  People need exercise and sunshine.

Similarly, one of the first Texas proposals is to reopen State Parks, as long as people respect it and stay distant it's not a bad notion

You would think but if you look at the amount of people in the picture they obviously don't get the message. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, SDS said:

we closed ours because people wouldn’t. 

 

Unfortunately, same here: all County parks closed

State Parks nearest KC and St Louis and one of the most popular about 1 hr away closed

 

Two counties about 90 minutes from St Louis which have very popular State Parks (but no hospitals) closed to non-residents, basically saying "we don't need you to drive down here for a picnic and bring covid-19 with you"

1 minute ago, Jrb1979 said:

You would think but if you look at the amount of people in the picture they obviously don't get the message. 

 

Welp, Then, that'll work out well