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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

Hedge

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shoshin Veteran

shoshin

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

No, because COVID 19 and Influenza don't run on parallel tracks.  This goes by the aggregate total of "influenza seasons", which is a more complete data subset.

 

And when you take this into consideration along with the higher mortality rates with the flu for those under the age of 65, especially so for those under 50, then it's clear that COVID produces not only less hospitalizations, ICU's but deaths as well than COVID for that age group.  

 

Even if you think this data is not fully representative of what you believe it to be, the data is clear enough to show that at a very minimum it's not that much more dangerous than the flu for the aforementioned age groups.   

 

 

Mortality data as you and I both agree is still up in the air. It's definitely way less than the early reports out of Italy. 

 

I can't let slide your proposal that the flu causes more hospitalizations than Covid. It clearly does not. Your data AND my data support how much worse Covid is. 

 

I found data that compared a 6-week snip of time to compare them and Covid has more cases. You picked an entire flu season to compare to Covid's current season, and found Covid to be only slightly behind the flu. But Covid started from a single domestic case sometime in December 2019! Imagine what it will do given its contagiousness with tens of thousands of seed cases starting in September and so little of the population without any immunity. That's why hospitalization should be the driving metric to watch for all reopening decisions (unless it becomes more fatal or starts to leap in case counts to younger people). 

 

Pretty sure you see the error here. Again, none of us analyzes CDC data for a living. 

 

If we can get the vaccine out quickly and drive this to zero, not allowing it to hang around and mutate in non-vaccinated folk, we can put it behind us maybe by summer 2021. This next flu season will be something different than we've ever had before. We will see it coming so hopefully we don't have to close, but we will have to be social distancing like MoFos. 

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Deranged Rhino
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snafu Veteran

snafu

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Magox said:

Secondly, it is not more dangerous than the flu for people under age 65. 

 

I think I'm changing the topic a bit.  It certainly isn't as fatal, but i am in wait and see mode on "dangerous" with regard to blood clotting, and permanent, or long lasting, or degenerative damage to younger population. This seems to do different things to people than the flu. There's still a lot we don't know about this virus and its effects.

 

Also -- if you take into consideration that hospitals were actively turning people away during the COVID-19 height of the outbreak, can you safely use the hospitalization numbers that are being reported?  Comparing them to flu numbers -- when hospitals have traditionally been able to handle all cases that come to their doors -- is maybe not the best comparison. Keep in mind that I don't know what comparison would be better...

 

 

 

 

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spartacus Veteran

spartacus

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1 hour ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

I am confused, I heard from a CDC  "expert" last week that there has never been an effective  vaccine ever developed for a coronavirus...

that would be correct

so don't hold your breathe for a viable vaccine

 

However, shots of "the cure" will be forced on the public in record time

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shoshin Veteran

shoshin

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

I am confused, I heard from a CDC  "expert" last week that there has never been an effective  vaccine ever developed for a coronavirus...

 

Why do you think that is? 

 

a) it's impossible 

b) none of the previous coronaviruses were a big deal

 

 

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Magox Hall of Famer

Magox

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, snafu said:

 

I think I'm changing the topic a bit.  It certainly isn't as fatal, but i am in wait and see mode on "dangerous" with regard to blood clotting, and permanent, or long lasting, or degenerative damage to younger population. This seems to do different things to people than the flu. There's still a lot we don't know about this virus and its effects.

 

Also -- if you take into consideration that hospitals were actively turning people away during the COVID-19 height of the outbreak, can you safely use the hospitalization numbers that are being reported?  Comparing them to flu numbers -- when hospitals have traditionally been able to handle all cases that come to their doors -- is maybe not the best comparison. Keep in mind that I don't know what comparison would be better...

 

 

 

 

 

 

That for me is the big unknown.  What are the secondary effects and how prevalent are they?  Are they statistically noteworthy?

 

In regards to hospitalization numbers, no, I can't safely say that as I am not privy to that sort of granular data.     With that said, even if the numbers are not very accurately reflected from what the CDC is reporting, and there was about a 50% variance from what they are showing, it's still low enough to support my views within the context that I was making them, which is that for people under 65, the risk of COVID 19 are similar in terms of health outcomes to that of seasonal influenza.    That's based off of the available data and it is supported by hospitalization data throughout the world, not just CDC.

Edited by Magox
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spartacus Veteran

spartacus

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Why do you think that is? 

 

a) it's impossible 

b) none of the previous coronaviruses were a big deal

 

 

they were a big deal at the time

just not hyped enough to shut down the world

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shoshin Veteran

shoshin

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9 minutes ago, spartacus said:

they were a big deal at the time

just not hyped enough to shut down the world


SARS and its 774 total deaths worldwide Total at its height almost matched NY State’s total on a few individual days. 
 

None of the other coronaviruses got this kind of attention deservedly so. 

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Magox Hall of Famer

Magox

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Posted

The more data that comes out the more we are learning about it.

 

Here is a serological study commissioned by the city of Los Angeles.  It has been peer -reviewed.

 

The mortality rate:

 

 

 

.2%  

 

 

 

 

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snafu Veteran

snafu

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33 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

That for me is the big unknown.  What are the secondary effects and how prevalent are they?  Are they statistically noteworthy?

 

In regards to hospitalization numbers, no, I can't safely say that as I am not privy to that sort of granular data.     With that said, even if the numbers are not very accurately reflected from what the CDC is reporting, and there was about a 50% variance from what they are showing, it's still low enough to support my views within the context that I was making them, which is that for people under 65, the risk of COVID 19 are similar in terms of health outcomes to that of seasonal influenza.    That's based off of the available data and it is supported by hospitalization data throughout the world, not just CDC.

 

Understood about your second paragraph. My point was more of a question. Thanks for answering. 

 

I’ve always thought one of the best side benefits of the lockdown is to get to know as many unknowns as possible before reopening. Or at least identify what should be investigated. That’s the only way to be prepared for the inevitable increase in numbers, especially with the next flu season being folded into a new Covid spike. There’s a lot of minds focused on this virus. One or two days makes a big difference. 

 

 

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BuffaloHokie13 All Pro

BuffaloHokie13

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Magox said:

The more data that comes out the more we are learning about it.

 

Here is a serological study commissioned by the city of Los Angeles.  It has been peer -reviewed.

 

The mortality rate:

 

 

 

.2%  

 

 

 

 

It was peer reviewed and nobody caught 'aroung' 0.2%? I suppose maybe the quick chart wasn't reviewed... :lol:

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Koko78 All Pro

Koko78

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On 5/17/2020 at 2:17 PM, B-Man said:

Coronavirus in Boston: 10% of Bostonians have COVID-19 antibodies.

 

WELL, YES. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR MONTHS, AND TRIALS THAT DON’T INCLUDE ZINC ARE LIKELY WORTHLESS: 

 

Zinc might boost effectiveness of malaria drug against COVID-19, experts say.

 

Wait, you mean the data collected from trials where they gave HCQ, with nothing else, to people who were on death's door in order to skew the results may not be valid?!?

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Magox Hall of Famer

Magox

Posted
Posted (edited)

More excellent news, on the R rate.  The number is going lower and below one.

 

Why is a number above one dangerous?

If the reproduction number is higher than one, then the number of cases increases exponentially - it snowballs.

But if the number is lower, the disease will eventually peter out, as not enough new people are being infected to sustain the outbreak.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Magox
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Deranged Rhino Hall of Famer

Deranged Rhino

Posted
Posted

Note who has to shift things to the absurd just to make a point. These types think that shows they're clever. But it just shows their actual agenda. It's not truth. It's to run interference and protect the worst elements of our republic -- including those who prey on children. 

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Dante All Pro

Dante

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Posted (edited)

More from Beetlejuice. If this doesn't say it all. "Pledge allegiance to the NWO" lol. Man you look at her and something is just off. Blackened, spaced apart eyes. Weird hair (she got cut illegally btw) and so on.

The Cory Hart "I wear my facemask" song is pretty good as well. Spot on

 

 

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Note who has to shift things to the absurd just to make a point. These types think that shows they're clever. But it just shows their actual agenda. It's not truth. It's to run interference and protect the worst elements of our republic -- including those who prey on children. 

 

Give it a rest rhinowad

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Deranged Rhino Hall of Famer

Deranged Rhino

Posted
Posted
Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

Give it a rest rhinowad

 

When it comes to making it crystal clear what you are and what you stand for, I can go all day. You stand for protecting those people who subvert our republic, weaponize our intelligence agencies and media against the people, and those who rape and exploit children. 

 

That's your record. Not mine. You chose to do all those things, for years. Racing into each and every thread discussing these serious and real topics just to distract, obfsucate, and protect the guilty. Because you're on their side. 

 

You're a bad person Gary. Deeply stupid. Deeply uninformed. And willing to help the cause of actual evil. 

 

That's what you are. And I will continue to make sure everyone knows it. 

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
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1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

When it comes to making it crystal clear what you are and what you stand for, I can go all day. You stand for protecting those people who subvert our republic, weaponize our intelligence agencies and media against the people, and those who rape and exploit children. 

 

That's your record. Not mine. You chose to do all those things, for years. Racing into each and every thread discussing these serious and real topics just to distract, obfsucate, and protect the guilty. Because you're on their side. 

 

You're a bad person Gary. Deeply stupid. Deeply uninformed. And willing to help the cause of actual evil. 

 

That's what you are. And I will continue to make sure everyone knows it. 

 

In a thread about a worldwide pandemic you namecall like this. You're absurd and a stain on Bills fans everywhere.

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Deranged Rhino Hall of Famer

Deranged Rhino

Posted
Posted
Just now, Warren Zevon said:

 

In a thread about a worldwide pandemic you namecall like this. You're absurd and a stain on Bills fans everywhere.

 

It's not name calling. It's your track record, Gary. You've spent YEARS earning that. You've spent years defending those people who seek to hurt children because you find it funny.

 

That's on you, no matter how you try to deflect.

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

It's not name calling. It's your track record, Gary. You've spent YEARS earning that. You've spent years defending those people who seek to hurt children because you find it funny.

 

That's on you, no matter how you try to deflect.

 

Keep going CIA agent.

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MILFHUNTER#518 Veteran

MILFHUNTER#518

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Warren Zevon said:

 

In a thread about a worldwide pandemic you namecall like this. You're absurd and a stain on Bills fans everywhere.

You cannot be on the right side of every issue. In life, like nature, to survive you need to make mid stream audibles, changes to your behavior and overall life strategy on the fly. That takes humility,  the ability to admit you are wrong. Some might take it a step further, and ask the question "are you man enough to admit when you are wrong?"

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Magox Hall of Famer

Magox

Posted
Posted (edited)

So here is Avik Roy's take on the previous discussion.

 

His takeaway is that under age 25 the relative risk is "Much lower"  with COVID vs Influenza but that from ages 25-65 the relative risk is higher than Influenza based of the CDC information he is using.   (Which goes contrary to the other compiled data, but the difference is small. 

 

However, the larger point that I was originally making was that for people under 65, there isn't much of a risk relative to the FLU but once you get past 65 years old, then the risk becomes "absolute".

 

 

Edited by Magox
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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

You cannot be on the right side of every issue. In life, like nature, to survive you need to make mid stream audibles, changes to your behavior and overall life strategy on the fly. That takes humility,  the ability to admit you are wrong. Some might take it a step further, and ask the question "are you man enough to admit when you are wrong?"

 

Where's Beginnersmind when you need him?

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Deranged Rhino Hall of Famer

Deranged Rhino

Posted
Posted
Just now, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

You cannot be on the right side of every issue. In life, like nature, to survive you need to make mid stream audibles, changes to your behavior and overall life strategy on the fly. That takes humility,  the ability to admit you are wrong. Some might take it a step further, and ask the question "are you man enough to admit when you are wrong?"

 

Gary doesn't do honesty. Intellectual or otherwise. 

 

He's been demonstrably wrong on nearly every subject down here for four years and has never once owned up to it. Not even with Flynn, which he did for a day before climbing back up the same hill where he will, soon enough, die all over again. He's a bad person who supports other bad people -- and does it with snark and a smile because deep down he knows how ***** despicable his actions actually are. 

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Warren Zevon Veteran

Warren Zevon

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Gary doesn't do honesty. Intellectual or otherwise. 

 

He's been demonstrably wrong on nearly every subject down here for four years and has never once owned up to it. Not even with Flynn, which he did for a day before climbing back up the same hill where he will, soon enough, die all over again. He's a bad person who supports other bad people -- and does it with snark and a smile because deep down he knows how ***** despicable his actions actually are. 

 

You are sane - keep at it.

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