The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[billsfan1959]

26 minutes ago, Magox said:

We actually expected to see more heart attacks during this time. Respiratory infections typically increase the risk of heart attacks. Studies suggest that recent respiratory infections can double the risk of a heart attack or stroke. The risk seems to begin soon after the respiratory infection develops, so any rise in heart attacks or strokes should be evident by now. We urge people to get flu vaccines every year, in part, to protect their hearts.

 

This is my point exactly. Under normal reporting procedures, if someone had the flu or a respiratory infection that contributed to a fatal heart attack, the cause of death is ruled a heart attack. The flu or respiratory infection would be considered a contributing factor; however, the death becomes a statistic in the "deaths from heart attack" category.

 

Currently, if you have the exact same scenario, except it is COVID-19 instead of the flu or other respiratory infection, the cause of death is COVID-19.

[RoyBatty is alive]

11 minutes ago, GG said:

 

About 2.8 million die in the US every year, which puts NYC at 70K, or less than 200/day.

I already did the math, 8.8 million people in NYC, assume life expectancy of 78 that is 309/day.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

This is my point exactly. Under normal reporting procedures, if someone had the flu or a respiratory infection that contributed to a fatal heart attack, the cause of death is ruled a heart attack. The flu or respiratory infection would be considered a contributing factor; however, the death becomes a statistic in the "deaths from heart attack" category.

 

Currently, if you have the exact same scenario, except it is COVID-19 instead of the flu or other respiratory infection, the cause of death is COVID-19.

The tricky part is. The heart has ace 2 reacpter like lung and intestines. Hapless posted in a different post here but for lungs and intestines mainly.. Some people died mycardio. Highly not a great chance but there has been lots.  Maybe 5 percent guessing.Just wondering my niece as well. Still a mystery in a way.  SARS and MERS had lots of mycardio deaths.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Buffalo Bills Fan

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I already did the math, 8.8 million people in NYC, assume life expectancy of 78 that is 309/day.

 

If those deaths occur in another locality, say Florida, do they count towards NYC's deaths or Florida's?

 

There are an awful lot of snowbirds.  If Florida takes the hit when they die during the winter, that could explain a large portion of these rough, back of the envelope counts & discrepancies.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Just now, Taro T said:

 

If those deaths occur in another locality, say Florida, do they count towards NYC's deaths or Florida's?

 

There are an awful lot of snowbirds.  If Florida takes the hit when they die during the winter, that could explain a large portion of these rough, back of the envelope counts & discrepancies.

 

Interesting, good point, i don't know.    I bet the median age i NYC is young,  once you get old if you can, i think the appeal of the city is lessened, costs too high and you tend to leave for good for places like Fla.  What is the adage, you dont want to die in NY, its just too expensive.

[GG]

9 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I already did the math, 8.8 million people in NYC, assume life expectancy of 78 that is 309/day.

 

Or you know, look at the official statistics?  In 2017, city wide mortality rate was 547 per 100K.  That's less than 200/day.

[shoshin]

The effort here to somehow minimize the death count is baffling. We know that deaths are being UNDER and OVER counted. It is the most accurate measure we have. We can't use case count because we literally have no idea how many people are just staying home with a family member who tested positive, clearly have it, and are not tested. And we can't know how many people know they have it because of symptoms but don't need to/want to get tested. We can't trust hospitalizations because hospitals are mostly over capacity so many are sent home. 

 

Fewer positive cases and fewer hospitalizations is a good trend but it's a vague indicator. Deaths are a certain statistic. 

 

RoyBatty came here doubting that the funeral/death business was struggling. Another guy wants proof that hospitals are struggling. I don't know what to tell you guys. Drive to NYC or any other big city right now and do a walking tour of a major hospital. Hell, if you're here then just go try to do a walk through at St. Joe's in Buffalo. It's real. I'm not saying we need to live in grave fear of it but don't doubt this is a huge deal and creating a big mess of bodies and crushing the health care system in many places. Maybe where you live is not that bad yet and I hope that continues, but it's a real problem, not a media fiction. 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

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[shoshin]

50 minutes ago, Magox said:

Where have all the heart attacks gone?

 

Very sad.  I think once there is a full forensic look at all this, once the dust settles which will probably be well over a year from now, we will see that the way we went about the shut down with a meat cleaver will have had a much worse off effect than the safety precautions and lives saved.  That's my take on it.

 

I think we will soon find out once the antibody tests are out that the mortality rate will be somewhere between .25%-.4%

 

I think we will see that the poverty that the meat cleaver approach will have caused more fatalities over a 5 year period than the lives saved.  

 

I think we will see that there were a number of people's health and ultimately fatalities occurred due to people not reporting health conditions due to fears of going outside of their homes will be a substantial number.

 

I don't blame policy makers for going with the meat cleaver approach, this was a Novel virus and we don't have any proven cures for it, no vaccines and it's highly contagious.  Plus the fear of overwhelming hospitals in hot spots is a real and valid concern.   

 

But once some deep analysis comes about and we do some Monday morning quarterbacking, when you do a cost/analysis outlook, we will see that not only from a financial point of view but also overall health and fatalities that the best approach to this would have been with a surgical scalpel knife.

 

The health systems really had no choice, and I see you acknowledge that. My wife's medical system needed/needs resources to deal with covid patients and can't put their nurses, doctors, and other patients at risk by having lots of already-sick people (with other conditions) coming into the place where there are covid patients. And because this rose so quickly and without adequate preparation, we could not set up covid wards and dedicated hospitals. For the next wave, which may be much bigger, we may have that in place. 

 

Your speculation on the fatality rate is speculation so far but even in Korea, it's higher than your count and given its very high contagiousness, even if it's 0.5%, that's a lot of bodies.

 

But you're right: The number of sick people currently not getting treatment is going to take a really big toll. My wife's team is juggling knives right now trying to help people in their homes through telemedicine and it's a clusterF. A necessary clusterF but one nonetheless. 

 

And when the covid patients clear, the hospitals/doctors will be rampaged by all these people who have stayed away and gotten a lot sicker with whatever they had...and if covid rises again what that happens...bottom line: Give your health care workers a lot of support right now. They are getting crushed and come June, it's not over by a long shot. 

 

I noted before that I have two relatives in nursing who volunteered to work at St Joe's on the covid ward. I haven't heard much from them but it was bad just a few days ago. I'm sure it's not gotten better since. 

 

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

The tricky part is. The heart has ace 2 reacpter like lung and intestines. Hapless posted in a different post here but for lungs and intestines mainly.. Some people died mycardio. Highly not a great chance but there has been lots.  Maybe 5 percent guessing.Just wondering my niece as well. Still a mystery in a way.  SARS and MERS had lots of mycardio deaths.

 

How is your niece doing?

[shoshin]

39 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I already did the math, 8.8 million people in NYC, assume life expectancy of 78 that is 309/day.

 

People leave and move to NYC all the time. You don't calculate a death rate by doing any calculation around population and life expectancy. You count bodies in the morgue. 

 

That's why I linked to the NYC Health Dept source. If you can beat that source for deaths/day in NYC, have at it. But if they say 147/day on average, it's going to be pretty damn close. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

Briefing starting soon: 

 

Also:  Good Friday Blessing

 

 

[Magox]

21 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

 

 

Your speculation on the fatality rate is speculation so far but even in Korea, it's higher than your count and given its very high contagiousness, even if it's 0.5%, that's a lot of bodies.

 

 

 

Actually, it's a little more than speculation.  Even though I have gone on record here on this site before this antibody test was published predicting .25% - .5%

 

And in regards to South Korea, you can't really say that with any certainty in regards to the mortality rate being at .5%.  Unless you've seen some anitbody testing that I haven't.

 

The best way we will find out are with these antibody tests with random samplings.

 

Quote

 

A study into Germany’s 'Wuhan' has revealed 15 per cent of the town, where the virus first stuck the country, have been infected but death rates have remained low.

Germany launched the Heinsberg Protocol study to examine the rural town of Gangelt in the region of Heinsberg, where the first virus fatalities occurred.

Unveiled on Thursday, the preliminary findings, using the results of 500 of the town's 12,000 inhabitants, showed that 15 per cent of the population was believed to have been infected.

 

But contrary to the national death rate, it revealed the mortality rate in the town would be 0.37 per cent. It is less than one-fifth of the mortality rate, based on confirmed positive tests in Germany as a whole, the researchers said

 

 

 

It will be fascinating to see what the infection rates are by state.  I wouldn't be surprised to see New York City and parts of NJ with infection rates of over 25%.   Maybe even higher.  

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Magox

[RoyBatty is alive]

32 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Or you know, look at the official statistics?  In 2017, city wide mortality rate was 547 per 100K.  That's less than 200/day.

 

You did the research, good for you, if that is a link, "official statistics"  i couldnt get it to work.  As i said, numerically, I cant get to that number,  547 per 100k, if that is what it says, sounds awfully low to me.  The US overall rate is 864 per 100k, guess that just proves you live longer in NYC, lol.

[shoshin]

Just now, Magox said:

 

It will be fascinating to see what the infection rates are by state.  I wouldn't be surprised to see New York City and parts of NJ with infection rates of over 25%.   Maybe even higher.  

 

 

If that's true, the contagiousness of this would be much, much higher than believed. I'm not saying you're wrong but I doubt it. 

 

The study you linked is in progress and the early data was a 500-person sample thus far in a small town. It's like drawing conclusions about this based on the Diamond Princess. Nowhere near enough data there yet. I do hope you're right. 

 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

If that's true, the contagiousness of this would be much, much higher than believed. I'm not saying you're wrong but I doubt it. 

 

The study you linked is in progress and the early data was a 500-person sample thus far in a small town. It's like drawing conclusions about this based on the Diamond Princess. Nowhere near enough data there yet. I do hope you're right. 

 

 

I get that.  But you said speculation and there is a little more than speculation to it.  

 

I can't wait till we get all these randomized antibody testing throughout various regions of the country for a whole bevy of reasons.  

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

You did the research, good for you, if that is a link, "official statistics"  i couldnt get it to work.  As i said, numerically, I cant get to that number,  547 per 100k, if that is what it says, sounds awfully low to me.  The US overall rate is 864 per 100k, guess that just proves you live longer in NYC, lol.

 

You really should drop this. You've been proven badly wrong on a point that I think only you and Buffalo_Gal are pushing, that somehow there is a massive death overcoat underway that proves...what...this isn't as bad as everyone knows it to be? 

 

I'll link the source document again in case you didn't believe the Washington Examiner story that it was based on. 

 

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/vs/2017sum.pdf

[IDBillzFan]

And just like clockwork, #TrumpBurialPits trends high on Twitter.

 

Leftists are nothing if not predictable.

 

Funny how there's no #CuomoBurialPits trending. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

If that's true, the contagiousness of this would be much, much higher than believed. I'm not saying you're wrong but I doubt it. 

 

The study you linked is in progress and the early data was a 500-person sample thus far in a small town. It's like drawing conclusions about this based on the Diamond Princess. Nowhere near enough data there yet. I do hope you're right. 

 

I understand not extrapolating too much from only s mall sample size but actually with 5,000? or so people on the Diamond Princess i think is a pretty good case study, highly concentrated, median to older group (with with weaker immune system), what was the infection rate for that?

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

I get that.  But you said speculation and there is a little more than speculation to it.  

 

Fair. 

 

1 minute ago, Magox said:

I can't wait till we get all these randomized antibody testing throughout various regions of the country for a whole bevy of reasons.  

 

For sure. Once we are testing anyone who wants it, plus randomized (oh no my rights!), we will have a much clearer picture of this.