The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[TPS]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

I really hope I can do this for my employees. And I'm fine taking it as a loan that I pay back, but right now cash flow is $0.

 

I can personally weather the storm for some time but my business cannot if I have to lay people off. And if I kill my business off, it can't lay golden eggs for my employees. My story is one shared by millions of small businesses. 

This is an extraordinary event, and it's designed to help small businesses make it through.  What would Wall Street do....?

[billsfan1959]

54 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Shivering, hallucinating, beaten ‘like a piñata’: Chris Cuomo’s ‘haunted’ night with coronavirus

 

CNN anchor Chris Cuomo gives an update on his coronavirus diagnosis during Wednesday's live broadcast of “Cuomo Prime Time." (Image via Twitter/Cuomo Prime Time/CNN)

By 

Allyson Chiu 

April 2, 2020 at 5:22 a.m. EDT

When the sun came up Wednesday morning, CNN anchor Chris Cuomo was already awake. But as Cuomo tells it, his early rising wasn’t by choice.

“I was up all night,” he said during Wednesday’s edition of “Cuomo Prime Time,” broadcast live from his basement where he is now self-quarantining after announcing one day earlier that he tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

‘Let me be proof’: Chris Cuomo, a little paler, broadcasts from his basement after testing positive for covid-19

The cause of Cuomo’s insomnia?

“This virus came at me, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Cuomo said, telling viewers that he was wracked with a fever of around 103 degrees “that wouldn’t quit."

“It was like somebody was beating me like a piñata,” he continued. “I was shivering so much … I chipped my tooth.”

 

Then, there were the fever-induced hallucinations.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

“My dad was talking to me,” a wide-eyed Cuomo said, referring to his late father, former New York governor and revered Democratic Party figure Mario Cuomo, who died in January 2015. “I was seeing people from college, people I haven’t seen in forever. It was freaky what I lived through last night, and it may happen again tonight.”

 

Hallucinations and seeing things that aren't really there is nothing new for Cuomo if you have ever seen anything he has reported on....

[GG]

34 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Because (1) they lack tests, and (2) the hospitals are overrun. 

 

Your credentials on this are probably better than Dr. Fauci and every other pandemic expert. How many years have you been with the CDC studying pandemics? Or do you compare to Bill Gates who seems like a bright guy and has been working on helping solve and treat disease outbreaks for 20 years? 

 

We need tests and lots of them. We need them as soon as possible within the limits of what can be done given the wasted month of planning that has been well documented, and we need them even more in a month if we have any hope of getting out of this shut down. 

 

We need dedicated testing sites not at hospitals, quick TATs, and tracking of contacts so we can turn a depression-like economic situation into a mere massive recession. 

 

What we don't need is:

 

(1) everyone hoping they self diagnose properly

(2) taking meds they may not need if some of the promising early data on anti-malarial turns out to be true (and conversely, taking those meds if they have it)

(3) people quarantining themselves without reason

(4) people relying on their faulty memories or whatever communications they may have to warn others if they test positive

 

28 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

We don't need testing because data doesn't matter or something something. 

 

Do you take time to read and understand what you are linking?

 

The opening paragraph

 

Quote

Three weeks after Italy became the first Western democracy to place its whole population under lockdown, the rate of contagion is slowing. But in the northern region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started and remains centered, infections had already spiraled out of control before the lockdown.

 

Nobody is arguing that testing isn't important.  The results of the tests are critical to gather the appropriate data so that healthcare workers and officials can plan for the proper resources to treat the epidemic.  But testing is far down the line in slowing the actual spread of the disease.  These points have been made over and over in this thread.  If you don't believe me, believe the article that you linked, which talks about statistics:

 

Quote

Another problem is that the number of virus carriers is also vastly undercounted. Italy has reported about 111,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus, but testing is mostly limited to those who show symptoms. Many virus carriers with no symptoms aren’t tested. Officials and health experts estimate the true number of infected people at anywhere from hundreds of thousands to six million.

 

The uncertainty about the death toll and the number of infected people makes it difficult to establish the true fatality rate of Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus. Estimates by epidemiologists of the fatality rate still range widely, but it is generally thought to be between 1% and 3% of those infected.

 

The above is important for the official statistics of trying to establish the fatality rate.   But what about slowing the spread, you say?

 

Quote

There are signs the lockdown that was imposed on March 8 across Lombardy and two days later on the whole of Italy is beginning to have an effect. The rate of contagion has slowed, and fewer people are being admitted to the hospital. A study by a team of epidemiologists at Imperial College London estimates that Italy’s strict social-distancing measures prevented about 38,000 deaths up to the end of March.

 

So, where in the article do they say that more testing would have prevented more deaths?

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Hallucinations and seeing things that aren't really there is nothing new for Cuomo if you have ever seen anything he has reported on....

I know, did you see where he pointed out Trump lying? Can you imagine? 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

So, where in the article do they say that more testing would have prevented more deaths?

 

Your ignorance on this is shocking. I'll drop this and stick with Team Fauci and the CDC over Team "GG" and the Bills board posters on extensive testing being one of the keys to getting through this with fewer deaths.

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Shivering, hallucinating, beaten ‘like a piñata’: Chris Cuomo’s ‘haunted’ night with coronavirus

 

CNN anchor Chris Cuomo gives an update on his coronavirus diagnosis during Wednesday's live broadcast of “Cuomo Prime Time." (Image via Twitter/Cuomo Prime Time/CNN)

By 

Allyson Chiu 

April 2, 2020 at 5:22 a.m. EDT

When the sun came up Wednesday morning, CNN anchor Chris Cuomo was already awake. But as Cuomo tells it, his early rising wasn’t by choice.

“I was up all night,” he said during Wednesday’s edition of “Cuomo Prime Time,” broadcast live from his basement where he is now self-quarantining after announcing one day earlier that he tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

‘Let me be proof’: Chris Cuomo, a little paler, broadcasts from his basement after testing positive for covid-19

The cause of Cuomo’s insomnia?

“This virus came at me, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Cuomo said, telling viewers that he was wracked with a fever of around 103 degrees “that wouldn’t quit."

“It was like somebody was beating me like a piñata,” he continued. “I was shivering so much … I chipped my tooth.”

 

Then, there were the fever-induced hallucinations.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

“My dad was talking to me,” a wide-eyed Cuomo said, referring to his late father, former New York governor and revered Democratic Party figure Mario Cuomo, who died in January 2015. “I was seeing people from college, people I haven’t seen in forever. It was freaky what I lived through last night, and it may happen again tonight.”

First, it sounds horrible and it's good to hear he's recovering.  It sounds awful, being beaten like a pinata, or what it must feel like after you were thrown down a flight of stairs.

 

Second, and more importantly, several news outlets are reporting that in the fever,  Mario told Chris to "Vote for Trump, dumbass!". 

....developing. 

[billsfan1959]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

I know, did you see where he pointed out Trump lying? Can you imagine? 

 

Well, let's just be thankful that Cuomo has the version of COVID-19 where the symptoms subside when it is time for him to do his show.... 

[GG]

5 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Your ignorance on this is shocking. I'll drop this and stick with Team Fauci and the CDC over Team "GG" and the Bills board posters on extensive testing being one of the keys to getting through this with fewer deaths.

 

 

Point me to where Fauci said that testing would slow the spread in the US?

[SoCal Deek]

5 minutes ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

First, it sounds horrible and it's good to hear he's recovering.  It sounds awful, being beaten like a pinata, or what it must feel like after you were thrown down a flight of stairs.

 

Second, and more importantly, several news outlets are reporting that in the fever,  Mario told Chris to "Vote for Trump, dumbass!". 

....developing. 

A piñata? That’s a bit racist, don’t you think?

[Magox]

58 minutes ago, TPS said:

Interesting study on trade-off being debated by some folk ( @Magox) here: https://phys.org/news/2020-04-stronger-pandemic-response-yields-economic.html

 

 

Thanks for that.

 

WIth that said, this isn't an apples to apples comparison of what I was talking about.

 

Quote

 

With that in mind, he observes, the idea of a "trade-off" between public health and economic activity does not hold up to scrutiny; places that are harder hit by a pandemic are unlikely to rebuild their economic capacities as quickly, compared to areas that are more intact.

"It casts doubt on the idea there is a trade-off between addressing the impact of the virus, on the one hand, and economic activity, on the other hand, because the pandemic itself is so destructive for the economy," Verner says.

 

 

 

What I was suggesting wasn't an either-or proposition.  It was a phase-in of the workforce and economy looking at many different variables, such as geography, more testing, better understanding of the disease, provable therapeutics, maintaining subsets of social distancing policies, antibody testing to phase those back into the workforce, etc etc.

 

And of course, none of this would even begin until the curve has been flattened.

 

Meanwhile we have yet another 6.648 Million people who just filed for Jobless claims this past week.  Totaling nearly 10 million in the past two weeks.

 

The idea that we wait until a vaccine is suicide. 

[Warren Zevon]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490713-fauci-improved-testing-and-tracing-can-help-reopen-country

 

"The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who's infected, isolate them and then do contact tracing," Fauci said.

 

"If you have a really good program of containment, that prevents you from ever having to get into mitigation. We're in mitigation right now," he added. 

 

Other experts have echoed Fauci's comments, saying that widespread testing is key for the country to return to normalcy and reopen businesses. That kind of capability will allow any infected people to be quickly identified and then isolated. 

[Keukasmallies]

8 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Well, let's just be thankful that Cuomo has the version of COVID-19 where the symptoms subside when it is time for him to do his show.... 

 

I was going to react to this, but thankfully I saw that Tiberius had already done so.  Since I social distanced/quarantined/blocked myself from anything that doofus does or says long before the virus reared its ugly head, I didn't leave a reaction emoji next to his/hers (?).

 

Anyway, good one, billsfan1959!

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Keukasmallies
just 'cause....

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

A piñata? That’s a bit racist, don’t you think?

I have to check the book, but I think it's more cultural misappropriation, or at worst, a dog whistle. For a chihuahua. You made me say that. 

[Chef Jim]

This report was in the news when I woke up.  I thought “wow a story NOT about Covid-19!”  Boy was I wrong. 
 

Dude sure had a loco motive. ?

 

https://abc7.com/amp/usns-mercy-coronavirus-train-crash-derailment/6069395

[Tiberius]

8 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490713-fauci-improved-testing-and-tracing-can-help-reopen-country

 

"The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who's infected, isolate them and then do contact tracing," Fauci said.

 

"If you have a really good program of containment, that prevents you from ever having to get into mitigation. We're in mitigation right now," he added. 

 

Other experts have echoed Fauci's comments, saying that widespread testing is key for the country to return to normalcy and reopen businesses. That kind of capability will allow any infected people to be quickly identified and then isolated. 

@GG

[SoCal Deek]

Just a week ago they were criticizing the Task Force for not doing enough tests. It’s a week later and they’ve now done a MILLION of them! Give it another few days and that number (aided by some technological advancement) is going to skyrocket. Yawn. Can we stop the testing hysteria already? 

[shoshin]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Just a week ago they were criticizing the Task Force for not doing enough tests. It’s a week later and they’ve now done a MILLION of them! Give it another few days and that number (aided by some technological advancement) is going to skyrocket. Yawn. Can we stop the testing hysteria already? 

 

Speaking for my own posts, I am not criticizing Trump on testing. I am criticizing the idea that testing would not help prevent spread. That's just ignorant.

 

The testing ramp up has been impressive.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

16 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Why because the chart shows raw numbers? you can't ignore those and simply look at growth curves? There aren't ready made charts with the data you're looking for, but if we use our knowledge about the size of various countries we can ballpark other points.

For reference, over the past week the growth rate in the US has dropped from 34.2% to 23.5%. Also, the r^2 value for exponential regression has fallen from .994 to .979. The data is moving towards a polynomial and not exponential.

[GG]

15 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490713-fauci-improved-testing-and-tracing-can-help-reopen-country

 

"The one thing we hopefully would have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who's infected, isolate them and then do contact tracing," Fauci said.

 

"If you have a really good program of containment, that prevents you from ever having to get into mitigation. We're in mitigation right now," he added. 

 

Other experts have echoed Fauci's comments, saying that widespread testing is key for the country to return to normalcy and reopen businesses. That kind of capability will allow any infected people to be quickly identified and then isolated. 

 

In an idealized state, which will never exist for each new virus.  He also doesn't address who would be subject to the test, not the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others.

[shoshin]

19 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Meanwhile we have yet another 6.648 Million people who just filed for Jobless claims this past week.  Totaling nearly 10 million in the past two weeks.

 

The idea that we wait until a vaccine is suicide. 

 

The idea of waiting the 6-8 weeks in quarantine is the one that the country is following, I think. No one is making that plan clear but with testing in place and a medical system geared up and ready, Pence's June 1 prediction is probably right for re-opening a lot of the country. 

 

But you're right. The economy is not going to be the Trump "V" that he predicted. At best it will be a backwards J. We will get some rise this year but double digit unemployment will linger for a long time. 

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

In an idealized state, which will never exist for each new virus.  He also doesn't address who would be subject to the test, not the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others.

 

Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

In an idealized state, which will never exist for each new virus.  He also doesn't address who would be subject to the test, not the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others.

 

It's lonely dying on the hill. 

[Warren Zevon]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

It's lonely dying on the hill. 

 

I also think the CDC guidelines (Did Fauci have a hand in writing these? I assume so...) telling people to stay 6 feet apart speaks to the obvious point that if you have symptoms, to stay away from others.

[meazza]

3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic

 

You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies.

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, meazza said:

 

You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies.

 

When it comes to testing that is the pinnacle goal for sure

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

The idea of waiting the 6-8 weeks in quarantine is the one that the country is following, I think. No one is making that plan clear but with testing in place and a medical system geared up and ready, Pence's June 1 prediction is probably right for re-opening a lot of the country. 

 

But you're right. The economy is not going to be the Trump "V" that he predicted. At best it will be a backwards J. We will get some rise this year but double digit unemployment will linger for a long time. 

 

The Nike Swoosh recovery is what I see.

 

 

Quote

 

Also known as the “Nike swoosh,” this scenario allows for businesses and spending to slowly resume as limits are eased more carefully than they were introduced. The level of economic output stays beneath the level of its pre-crisis trend well into 2021 and there’s a lack of animal spirits as people remain cautious of over-spending or taking long-distance trips, especially if they have to deal with debts.

 

 

[Doc]

6 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

Your obvious point is obvious but many people who spread the disease are asymptomatic

 

So the obvious answer is you test everyone?  Everyday?  Every other day?  Every three days? 

[Warren Zevon]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

So the obvious answer is you test everyone?  Everyday?  Every other day?  Every three days? 

 

No. Develop an antibody test. 

 

Test anyone else who has symptoms or has come into contact with a known positive patient. Practice social distancing. Stay isolated. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by Gary Busey

[shoshin]

15 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

You'd probably be better off testing people for antibodies.

 

This is absolutely true. A rapid and accurate antibody test is the Holy Grail of the testing and outbreak prevention plan that we need to get back to work. 

 

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The Nike Swoosh recovery is what I see.

 

 

 

 

I'll take it. If we are recovered to present levels in two years, that would be fantastic. Some industries (travel and hospitality, restaurants) are going to be gutted though for a long time. That's why the infrastructure spending that wouldn't even start until 3Q at the earliest could help those folks at least find some jobs. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

This is absolutely true. A rapid and accurate antibody test is the Holy Grail of the testing and outbreak prevention plan that we need to get back to work. 

 

 

I'll take it. If we are recovered to present levels in two years, that would be fantastic. 

 

It all depends though.  If we don't flatten this curve by no later than June, then we won't see this.  And not only that, we need to be able to effectively have policies in place to control any other potential outbreak we may see after that.   If we don't effectively isolate any other potential outbreak then it will be a W recovery.   If we don't effectively flatten the curve until after June and we don't begin phasing back the workforce at that time then it will look more like an L shape recovery.

 

 

 

Quote

 

L-Shape

The virus runs into the second half of the year, forcing social distancing rules to remain beyond June.

Even if it fades before the summer, there is still a chance the recession will be lengthier than anticipated or the recovery will be stretched out. In this scenario, people continue to cut back on services spending -- opting to keep with their home theaters -- and resist taking holidays. Debts built up before or during the crisis become hard to pay down, setting off a spiral of default and business bankruptcies that create fears of a credit crunch. Equity markets fail to bounce

 

 

 

[123719bwiqrb]

12 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

No. Develop an antibody test. 

 

Test anyone else who has symptoms or has come into contact with a known positive patient. Practice social distancing. Stay isolated. 

And then we can mark them so we all know they are acceptable humans.  And the rest can be stored somewhere.

[Warren Zevon]

Yikes

[shoshin]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It all depends though.  If we don't flatten this curve by no later than June, then we won't see this.  And not only that, we need to be able to effectively have policies in place to control any other potential outbreak we may see after that.   If we don't effectively isolate any other potential outbreak then it will be a W recovery.   If we don't effectively flatten the curve until after June and we don't begin phasing back the workforce at that time then it will look more like an L shape recovery.

 

 

This is really good data and thinking. The way we start getting back to work in June is with widespread rapid testing, medical facilities with adequate supplies of everything, and tracking of cases/contacts. This is the Korea model and if we achieve all 3 of those goals, we would attain relative predictability and could recover faster. 

 

There will be outbreaks after June but if they can be contained, it's OK. What we can't have happen is the Imperial College model of multiple waves like this one. 

[123719bwiqrb]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

Yikes

Ok.  So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir.

[Warren Zevon]

Just now, shoshin said:

 

There will be outbreaks after June but if they can be contained, it's OK. What we can't have happen is the Imperial College model of multiple waves like this one. 

 

The swoosh or L curve would get pushed out another 6-8 months with another mass outbreak in the fall

[shoshin]

7 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

And then we can mark them so we all know they are acceptable humans.  And the rest can be stored somewhere.

 

It's OK to Big Brother the concern on tracking but here's the tradeoff. If you want one shutdown where we get this under control and coming out of it, we get back to work, we better have some tracking in place until the vaccine arrives. 

 

3 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

The swoosh or L curve would get pushed out another 6-8 months with another mass outbreak in the fall

 

Not if there's testing and tracking. 

 

Without testing and tracking in June, we will have an outbreak just like now by the end of summer. That would be terrible and only happen as the result of bad decisions right now. 

 

3 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

Ok.  So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir.

 

Don't be ignorant. It's not magic. The tests are already being rolled out, though it's early. 

Edited April 2, 2020 by shoshin

[Warren Zevon]

5 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

Ok.  So then you explain to me how this magical antibody test would work, good sir.

 

Google antibody testing. It's already being developed for Covid-19 by numerous companies.

[meazza]

2 minutes ago, Gary Busey said:

 

Google antibody testing. It's already being developed for Covid-19 by numerous companies.

 

Anything being developed now can take months.

[123719bwiqrb]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

Don't be ignorant. It's not magic. The tests are already being rolled out, though it's early. 

 

Not being ig-nant, but I want to know what happens to subject A who "passes" this test and has lot of magical antibodies, vs subject B who fails this test and does not has sufficient antibodies to go outside of their house.

 

What happens if subject B want to go sit on a park bench, or heaven forbid wants to get a job and make money to support their beanie baby collection?  I believe the powers that be will say they should be shunned for 18 months until there is an approved vaccination, correct?  And in the meantime, we will track their whereabouts, you know just to be safe.

[Warren Zevon]

2 minutes ago, meazza said:

 

Anything being developed now can take months.

 

Indeed - which is why people are rightfully upset the government dragged their feet throughout January and February.