Josh Allen vs. Russel Wilson Year 2

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

You have eyes... you watch games.  Who does Josh's game look more like?..   The running, big play ability game of RW or the check down, timid game of Mariota?

Oh geez, based on your wording, I wonder which answer you want to hear. 

15 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Thanks, I was going to ignore that. 

Why ignore it? Because it doesn’t agree with the agenda here?

Edited January 15, 2020 by Bangarang

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Eh this is kind of revisionist history. There was legitimate skepticism of Russell Wilson's 2nd year, on whether he was actually good or just a product of an outstanding defense and running game. Certainly no one was predicting he would be a top 5 QB for most of his career.

This is true and if he plateaued where he was, as narrative goes about year 2, it may have turned out right. 
 

however, I’m not so sure he’s plateaued yet, even now... and he was deservedly in the mvp conversation much of the year. 

[Billl]

51 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

If Allen had even around the league average in drops he would be about 61.5% completion percentage...that makes me feel a little better but on the flip side, some of the drops happened because of poor ball placement which made the catches more difficult than they should have been.

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% of his 106 targets in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

Edited January 15, 2020 by Billl

[Mango]

19 minutes ago, warrior9 said:

Russel Wilson MAY have got help from a great offensive line, better weapons, one of the best defenses of our generation and ....... Marshawn Lynch?

 

Maybe that's a reach, though?

 

You are right, he did get help from a bunch of those things. I think Brown and Beasley are WR 2 and 3 on that roster. You have to look at who those Seattle WR's were not who they became later on. 

 

And given all of those things, RW still did more. Hence the adjusted passer rating where Russ actually gets a much higher lift than Josh does. They are not similar players.

 

They aren't similar passers. Russ throws with much more touch, anticipation, and consistency than Josh who throws most throws on a rope with much more force, and does so much more inconsistency.  Lets not even get into mechanics....

 

They don't have similar running styles. Russ is elusive and does a good job of protecting himself. Josh runs with power and aggression, at times seems like he searches out contact.  

 

This doesn't mean Josh sucks, but I don't think there has been anybody on here who as agreed with your argument that they are "identical". People have agreed Josh's weapons failed him at times, his trajectory seems good, etc. But their congruence, nah. 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

 

That's actually an interesting stat..  Off the top of my head, he was playing outside instead of half his games in a dome, combined with increased velocity of Allen compared to Dak.

[JESSEFEFFER]

17 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think Josh is legit.  I expect big things out of him in Year 3 and beyond, provided our Front Office does what we all expect them to do this offseason. 

 

That being said, it's a two way street.. 

 

We beat the Ravens and potentially have a bye/division-champs, if Josh hits any of his multiple open deep balls where our guys burned the Ravens press coverage.  That was a game we lost due to Josh Allen.

 

Conversely, we beat Houston in the Playoffs if anyone makes a play for him.  Nobody did anything out of the extremely ordinary that day, aside from Josh Allen, who gets killed for his meltdown, but those same people forget that he threw for 250+, ran for 90+ and caught a TD.  Houston, with a mediocre-at-best secondary locked down our receivers, and Duke 2x, Brown 1x, both failed to convert plays that we saw made routinely for every other QB in these playoffs. 

 

If Duke makes that TD catch.  If Duke holds onto that sideline pass.  If Brown catches the sideline throw.  If anyone makes a block in OT.    If ANY of those things happen, we win and Josh either would have thrown for 300 or ran for over 100. 

 

I expect Josh to learn from this year, grow from this year, and I expect him to have guys next year that make plays for him.   Those things should lead to a break out year for Allen.

 

 

Ravens game had bad drops by Knox, Beasley and Singletary.  Generally, offenses struggled in an open air stadium located in the Great Lakes region during November and December weather conditions.  Reputations credit the Bills D and blame Josh's accuracy.

[Bookie Man]

I feel like he really became DangeRUSS in his 4th year. 4 out of next 5 season 30+ passing touchdowns. Wilson has the prettiest deep ball in the NFL imo. 

[JaCrispy]

37 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

well, you want your QB to be a top talent, so I would rather see a comparison against an elite QB at a similar stage in their career rather than a guy who was benched....

[Patrick Duffy]

41 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

Yes

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

No he wasn’t. Tate aside, the rest of those guys were late round picks and UDFAs on rookie deals. They developed with Wilson and made plays, but a lot of that had to do with Wilson throwing perfect balls and scrambling to give them time to get off coverage. Not to mention 8 man boxes to stop Lynch. 

 

I wouldn't go that far.  Wilson's rookie year, Zach Miller was a former 2nd round pick who had been solid with Oakland, and was in his 2nd year in Bevell's offense Wilson's rookie year.  He was a solid 65% catch, 45 ypg guy with Oakland.  He was a reliable 72%, 25 ypg outlet for Wilson his rookie season.  Marshawn Lynch is underrated for his hands and also a 77% catch guy.  Sidney Rice was a 2nd round pick for Minn.  who had a great 3rd year for Minn then struggled with injuries for a couple season before having a rennaissance for Wilson his rookie season.  Golden Tate as you note, was a 3rd year vet, former 2nd round pick and reliable home grown target.   Doug Baldwin is the guy who fits your profile.

 

The point is, Wilson's WR cast wasn't all-star, but it's a lot better talent and far more proven than your description of "late round picks and UDFA on rookie deals" makes them sound.

 

Interestingly, we really did try to do that for Allen here with Zay Jones (he'd be our Golden Tate attempt) and Kelvin Benjamin (he'd be our Sidney Rice attempt).  Kroft is a low-rent never-quite-that version of Zach Miller.    The somewhat scary (to me) thing is that so many of our shots on goal didn't work out.  Something is amiss somewhere.

[warrior9]

12 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

You are right, he did get help from a bunch of those things. I think Brown and Beasley are WR 2 and 3 on that roster. You have to look at who those Seattle WR's were not who they became later on. 

 

And given all of those things, RW still did more. Hence the adjusted passer rating where Russ actually gets a much higher lift than Josh does. They are not similar players.

 

They aren't similar passers. Russ throws with much more touch, anticipation, and consistency than Josh who throws most throws on a rope with much more force, and does so much more inconsistency.  Lets not even get into mechanics....

 

They don't have similar running styles. Russ is elusive and does a good job of protecting himself. Josh runs with power and aggression, at times seems like he searches out contact.  

 

This doesn't mean Josh sucks, but I don't think there has been anybody on here who as agreed with your argument that they are "identical". People have agreed Josh's weapons failed him at times, his trajectory seems good, etc. But their congruence, nah. 

Baldwin and Tate 1000% start over Brown and Bease. They’ll have their time on the field but those two would probably be 1 and 2. I think ultimately brown and Baldwin would split #2 reps
 

in terms of throwing style. The point is trajectory. Was RW throwing with that much anticipation etc in his second year? Again, he is also 2 years older than Josh in his second year. I posted this because it’s refreshing to know that if we’re patient and let this guy learn and get him some weapons, he can be a stud. 
 

they aren’t similar running styles, obviously. They both scramble and make plays off of that... it’s a huge part of both of their games. There is a lot of similarities in how they’re successful. 
 

if JA had Marshawn and that line, what could he have done? Obviously we’ll never know but it’s fun to speculate. I think Josh has very very good numbers with an improved line and RB next year. 

Edited January 15, 2020 by warrior9

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

well, you want your QB to be a top talent, so I would rather see a comparison against an elite QB at a similar stage in their career rather than a guy who was benched....

 

This comparison highlights the great unknown at this point.

 

I could probably pick about 8 QB who had similar 2nd playing seasons over the last couple decades.  About 3 panned out and became good or even great QB.  5 did not progress and fell by the wayside.

 

Fundamentally, we all just have to wait to see which category Allen winds up in.

 

And while we're waiting, hope that Beane gets his act together and realizes we simply can't generate enough offense with the talent he's given it.  We need something - a bruising OL, a great TE, a bruising RB, a true #1 WR - not all of the above, perhaps, but say 2 of the 4.

 

 

[SCBills]

18 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Ravens game had bad drops by Knox, Beasley and Singletary.  Generally, offenses struggled in an open air stadium located in the Great Lakes region during November and December weather conditions.  Reputations credit the Bills D and blame Josh's accuracy.

 

Not gonna lie... this season has me really open to building a Dome.  It was really frustrating hearing about wind every game, and then being unable to attack Philly's weakness as they destroyed us on the ground and in the short passing game.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

These comparisons are dumb and meaningless. 
 

Why pick Russell Wilson and not Marcus Mariota who also had similar stats as a 2nd year starter? Is it because It’s better to associate Allen with someone who is universally regarded as a good QB opposed to one who isn’t? 

 

Because, and stick with me here, it's VERY LIKELY Josh turns out to have that kind of ceiling. Wilson, I mean.

 

Much as MANY around here would like to debate that, it's kind of plain for everyone who doesn't have an inherent bias to see.

 

[machine gun kelly]

Thanks for the info.  RW is awesome, and his team has evolved over time.  I believe JA will get there with more weapons and protection and continuing that development of our own Legion of Boom.  If I were pressed to pick, I’d pick RW, or Mahomes over Josh which is not a negative on Josh, but how exceptional those two QBS are and we could have had them,.  Water under the bridge as we don’t.

[jrober38]

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Cole Beasley caught 75% of his 87 targets in 2018.  He caught 63% of his 106 targets in 2019.  Same guy.  What changed?

His drop rate. Just click on “advanced rushing and receiving” on the very same PFR page and you’d know that his drop rate went from 1.1% to 5.7%.

 

Now compare yardage and TDs to previous years 

Edited January 15, 2020 by thebandit27

[warrior9]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

?

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Their numbers passing aren't even remotely similar.

But how does Wilson compare to Taysom Hill, who in your opinion is an upgrade over not only Allen, but also Drew Brees ? 

[Bangarang]

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Because, and stick with me here, it's VERY LIKELY Josh turns out to have that kind of ceiling. Wilson, I mean.

We already knew Josh’s ceiling was incredibly high. What we don’t know is if he will have the same progression and success as Wilson. This comparison seems to suggest that he will which I clearly think is flawed logic.

 

15 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Much as MANY around here would like to debate that, it's kind of plain for everyone who doesn't have an inherent bias to see.

 

 

What’s the bias you’re referring to?

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

?

 

All of Wilson's stats are 10-20% better than Allen's.

 

His QB Rating is 16 points better, QBR 20 points better, YPA 20% better, TD% 50% better, completion % 4.3 points better, etc.

 

Allen was an elite passer his second year in the NFL. Allen was bottom 10 in every category. 

 

This comparison is absurd. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Bangarang said:

What’s the bias you’re referring to?

 

Pre-draft "he's inaccurate" bias.

 

A LOT of people don't want to move off there.

 

[warrior9]

Just now, Bangarang said:

We already knew Josh’s ceiling was incredibly high. What we don’t know is if he will have the same progression and success as Wilson. This comparison seems to suggest that he will which I clearly think is flawed logic.

 

 

What’s the bias you’re referring to?

Wait, my comparison is not suggesting that he WILL. It's suggesting that he CAN. It's refreshing to know we have a guy on an upward trajectory with similar stats in year two to a top 3-5 QB... that's all. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

All of Wilson's stats are 10-20% better than Allen's.

 

His QB Rating is 16 points better, QBR 20 points better, YPA 20% better, TD% 50% better, completion % 4.3 points better, etc.

 

Allen was an elite passer his second year in the NFL. Allen was bottom 10 in every category. 

 

This comparison is absurd. 

You’ve lost all right to call anyone absurd after your Hill-over-Brees nonsense 

[Rico]

7 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

But how does Wilson compare to Taysom Hill, who in your opinion is an upgrade over not only Allen, but also Drew Brees ? 

A Taysom Hill fanboy on a Bills board? Cool.

[warrior9]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

All of Wilson's stats are 10-20% better than Allen's.

 

His QB Rating is 16 points better, QBR 20 points better, YPA 20% better, TD% 50% better, completion % 4.3 points better, etc.

 

Allen was an elite passer his second year in the NFL. Allen was bottom 10 in every category. 

 

This comparison is absurd. 

It's not when all things considered man. Drops, O-Line, RB, etc. 

 

I'm not sure if there are stats out there from 2013 about the drops of all teams but I would bet RW didn't have nearly the drops JA did. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Rico said:

A Taysom Hill fanboy on a Bills board? Cool.

I guess. The dude actually said that Hill was an upgrade at QB over Allen...and then quadrupled down on an already-next-level insane take by saying that Hill would be an upgrade at QB over Drew Brees.

1 minute ago, warrior9 said:

It's not when all things considered man. Drops, O-Line, RB, etc. 

 

I'm not sure if there are stats out there from 2013 about the drops of all teams but I would bet RW didn't have nearly the drops JA did. 

PFR seems to only track drop rate as far back as 2018.

[K-9]

2 hours ago, warrior9 said:

I don't disagree, first Patriots game and Ravens game were both W's if he hits 2 of his over throws

While it would have been nice to hit one or both of them, any number of a combination of two plays in either game would have made a difference as well. But games are won and lost over the course of there entirety, not on a couple plays.

[Meatloaf63]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Going of pure stats, Russ was a better passer in nearly every single metric. Won more games, better completion %, more TD passes, higher TD %,  more first downs, higher first down %, more first downs on less passing attempts, one less game winning drive and 4th quarter comeback. 

 

In terms of rushing, he had less rushing TD's, but had more yards per carry and more yards and less carries. 

 

I couldn't find 2013 drop rate or frequency by team. The closes I could get was adjusted passer rating. Adjusted passing actually favors Wilson WAAAYYY more than Josh. 

 

Josh- 91(+6 pts)

Russ- 119 (+23 pts)

 

Call me crazy but maybe, just maybe, these things are the reason he was voted to the Pro Bowl....now bare with me here, and this is a reach, those things could also be part of the reason they also won 3 more games than Buffalo. 

 

Josh Allen is not nearly as good as Russell Wilson's 2nd year currently. It is what it is. Doesn't mean he is a failure or a bust. 

Josh didn’t have the quality of the running game that Wilson had and that is a hugh difference that made life a whole lot easier for Wilson, Wilson’s receiving core was measurably better too. This is all just fun speculation in the end but most signs point to Allen being on the right track.

[Rico]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I guess. The dude actually said that Hill was an upgrade at QB over Allen...and then quadrupled down on an already-next-level insane take by saying that Hill would be an upgrade at QB over Drew Brees.

PFR seems to only track drop rate as far back as 2018.

Taysom Hill an upgrade over Drew Brees? Nice.  

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, Joe in Winslow said:

 

Pre-draft "he's inaccurate" bias.

 

A LOT of people don't want to move off there.

 

 

He literally had the worst completion percentage in the NFL among starting QBs. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

He literally had the worst completion percentage in the NFL among starting QBs. 

He also literally had the highest percentage of dropped passes among starting QBs—by an entire standard deviation...but by all means continue to only focus on things that allow you to shoehorn his performance to fit your erroneous pre draft evaluation.

3 minutes ago, Rico said:

Taysom Hill an upgrade over Drew Brees? Nice.  

Oh it was an all-time classic. Like a Mario-for-Skelton type classic.

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Josh didn’t have the quality of the running game that Wilson had and that is a hugh difference that made life a whole lot easier for Wilson, Wilson’s receiving core was measurably better too. This is all just fun speculation in the end but most signs point to Allen being on the right track.

 

The Bills were 8th in the NFL in rush yards this year at 128 yards a game.

 

The Seahawks were 4th in 2013 at 136 yards a game.

 

Not exactly a big difference. 

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

All of Wilson's stats are 10-20% better than Allen's.

 

His QB Rating is 16 points better, QBR 20 points better, YPA 20% better, TD% 50% better, completion % 4.3 points better, etc.

 

Allen was an elite passer his second year in the NFL. Allen was bottom 10 in every category. 

 

This comparison is absurd. 

All comparisons of this type are absurd when you think about it. Amusing, but absurd none the less. 
 

Until someone invents a time machine that will allow Allen and Wilson to re-play their first two years on each other’s teams with the same 52 other moving parts, coaching staffs, and every other exact circumstance, then we really can’t make an accurate comparison between their respective first two seasons in the league. 
 

It’s funny how we simply want to disregard all the other aspects involved. As if Allen and Wilson are simply two, stand alone, interchangeable parts. 

[warrior9]

13 minutes ago, Meatloaf63 said:

Josh didn’t have the quality of the running game that Wilson had and that is a hugh difference that made life a whole lot easier for Wilson, Wilson’s receiving core was measurably better too. This is all just fun speculation in the end but most signs point to Allen being on the right track.

Thank you, that's all this thread was trying to suggest.

[warrior9]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The Bills were 8th in the NFL in rush yards this year at 128 yards a game.

 

The Seahawks were 4th in 2013 at 136 yards a game.

 

Not exactly a big difference. 

That's short sighted.

 

You HAD to play the run against Seattle, you didn't have to against this team. It was a MAJOR focus of that Seattle team which opened up the passing game. Defenses played that team way different than they would this Bills team. Again, it's all in fun speculation. 

 

Again, we'll never know but I don't think many QBs did more with less than Josh this year. 

[jrober38]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

He also literally had the highest percentage of dropped passes among starting QBs—by an entire standard deviation...but by all means continue to only focus on things that allow you to shoehorn his performance to fit your erroneous pre draft evaluation.

 

The Bills were 29th in the NFL when you adjust for drops.

 

The only teams worse than us were the Bengals, Browns and Lions. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

You’ve lost all right to call anyone absurd after your Hill-over-Brees nonsense 

 

Not to mention the famous certainty that Knox will take a big step forward  and be a top-10 TE next year, but "Josh Allen isn't a good passer of the football" and "the odds of finding a guy via a draft pick in the....2nd round are higher than the odds thatAllen improves to the point where he's a legit franchise QB"

 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

The Bills were 29th in the NFL when you adjust for drops.

 

The only teams worse than us were the Bengals, Browns and Lions. 

So perhaps “literally the worst” was a poor choice of words?

 

[Buffalo Junction]

30 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

lol who “stopped” lynch exactly? 

No one 

 

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I wouldn't go that far.  Wilson's rookie year, Zach Miller was a former 2nd round pick who had been solid with Oakland, and was in his 2nd year in Bevell's offense Wilson's rookie year.  He was a solid 65% catch, 45 ypg guy with Oakland.  He was a reliable 72%, 25 ypg outlet for Wilson his rookie season.  Marshawn Lynch is underrated for his hands and also a 77% catch guy.  Sidney Rice was a 2nd round pick for Minn.  who had a great 3rd year for Minn then struggled with injuries for a couple season before having a rennaissance for Wilson his rookie season.  Golden Tate as you note, was a 3rd year vet, former 2nd round pick and reliable home grown target.   Doug Baldwin is the guy who fits your profile.

 

The point is, Wilson's WR cast wasn't all-star, but it's a lot better talent and far more proven than your description of "late round picks and UDFA on rookie deals" makes them sound.

 

Interestingly, we really did try to do that for Allen here with Zay Jones (he'd be our Golden Tate attempt) and Kelvin Benjamin (he'd be our Sidney Rice attempt).  Kroft is a low-rent never-quite-that version of Zach Miller.    The somewhat scary (to me) thing is that so many of our shots on goal didn't work out.  Something is amiss somewhere.

I was referring to his use of Baldwin, Tate, and Kearse as references to WRs. Rice is a bit of a wash to me. His one good healthy season was with Favre force feeding him the ball. He never returned to that, and John Brown just put up a season that trumps Rice’s Seattle performances. Where Wilson’s WR weapons were better is the talent they identified as depth. Those guys improved rapidly. I’ll address that in my concerns below that ruminate on the bolded. 
 

Lynch is a different factor all together. He was the engine in that offense. It was a similar formula to what the Steelers did with Big Ben early; protect the young QB with a dominant defense and dominant run game. Allen certainly has not benefited from a dominant O-line and/ a RB producing at a HoF level. To me that’s part of why we see him trying to force things from time to time, and why Allen performs better when Singletary is in the game. 
 

The bolded is what concerns me moving forward. I’m not sure how good this FO and staff is at identifying receiving talent. I’ll give them Knox as we can all see the potential. Unfortunately, every time he drops a gimme we can also see why he wasn’t a focal point in college.
 

I’m worried that we have three issues with fixing the passing game.

 

1) They aren’t properly identifying draft prospects. Zay was a big whiff and they haven’t taken anyone else high. It’s hard to judge, but we’ll likely know if this is a problem in 8-12 months. 
 

2) Are these prospects being properly coached? Specifically, are they being coached up in a way that makes Allen’s life easier? I wonder about this because I don’t see our WRs work back or settle into zones consistently when Allen scrambles. 
 

3) Daboll. Are the best players on the field, and are they being utilized properly? Getting away from Singletary, sending a FB on deep routes, etc. lead me to believe that there could be an issue here. It’s also entirely possible that Daboll is pressing and experimenting because of talent deficiencies as well. However, I tend to fall into the camp that believes he out thinks himself at times. 
 

I think some if not all of these questions will be answered next season. It’s also possible that McD adjusts the coaching staff if #2 is an issue. I’m hoping they identify a couple weapons, Daboll’s personnel groupings settle down with more consistent talent, and Allen can trust all his playmakers to make plays.

 

Im keeping my fingers crossed.