2020 Mock Off-Season

[elijah]

I broke this down in depth in an excel sheet and this is just a little bit of a recap of the excel sheet.  If there's enough interest in the actual numbers, I'll transfer the excel sheet to microsoft one drive or google sheets so y'all can have a look.  Also, sorry for the lengthiness of this, I tried to be more brief but also wanted to show that this isn't just a half-ass breakdown and that the numbers were properly taken into account behind it so no one can just shrug it off as not possible. 

 

STEP ONE - 2020 OFF-SEASON OUTLINE

 

I took numbers from Spotrac and outlaid the Bills roster for the next 5 years until 2024.  I used a projected salary cap of $199,000,000 in 2020, $206,000,000 in 2021 and increased by $6M per year every year following.  This is likely lower than what the true salary cap will be, but I was conservative with it intentionally as too not overspend and keep it more realistic.  I also went over rookie contracts for pick #20 in each round and found that the cap hit for all 7 rounds of rookies would be somewhere around $6M total.  I took this number and rounded it up to $7.25M as too account for the fact that Beane has shown his willingness to trade up and trade dead weight players for late picks.  After accounting for projected rookie contracts, current and future salaries and dead cap, this projects the Bills to have salary cap numbers of 2020 - $79.8M (including rollover), 2021 - $97.3M, 2022 - $161M, 2023 - $210.75M.

 

STEP TWO – “TRUE VIEW"

 

Beane has preached over and over again to reward his in house talent and stay out of cap hell.  In order to take this into account, before starting to spend the money on current Bills free agents and UFA’s, I gave contracts out too six players that I see as cornerstones for this franchise if we were to find sustained success.  The contracts are as follows:

 

Guaranteed Resignings 

2022: Josh Allen - 6 years, $190M (6th highest paid QB)    

2021: Dion Dawkins - 5 years, $57.5M (14th highest paid T)           

2022: Tremaine Edmunds - 5 years, $70M (4th highest paid MLB) 

2021: Tre'Davious White - 5 years, $80M (highest paid CB)            

           

Likely Resignings    

2021: Jordan Poyer - 2 years, $17M (12th highest paid Safety)       

2021: Matt Milano - 4 years, $32M (6th highest paid OLB)

 

I understand the numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re projections that at most are just a few million off.  Come time, it would be easy to see Dawkins, Edmunds and Poyer possibly getting paid a little more.  You could argue that Tre might get a 6 year contract instead of 5.  However, again, these are just projections.  The contracts should be accurate enough to get the point across.

 

With these projected resignings, this leaves cap space of 2020 - $79.8M, 2021 - $53.3M, 2022 - $71M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M.

 

STEP THREE – 2020 OFF-SEASON RESIGNINGS AND CUTS

 

Next up is who the Bills are going to resign and who they won’t resign and the value in these players.  This part may become a little more controversial than the last step as too who people think we should and shouldn’t resign, and who we actually will and won’t resign.

 

2020 Off-Season Resignings        

Senorise Perry - 1 year, $570k           

LaAdrian Waddle - 1 year, $2M        

Kevin Johnson - 1 year, $3.5M           

Maurice Alexander - 1, $1M  

Isaiah McKenzie - 1 year, $3.5M       

Robert Foster - 1 year, $2.75M         

Corey Liuget - 1 year, $2.5M 

Dean Marlowe - 1 year, $1M

Shaq Lawson - 3 years, $22.5M        

 

McBeane have placed an emphasis on special teams players, and therefore with the low values of Perry and Alexander and the contributions they should have to special teams, I believe they’ll be back.  I like the depth that Waddle, Liuget and Marlowe offer at the prices they should be willing to resign for and thus suggest bringing them back.  I’m not too well versed and the exclusive rights free agent clauses, and therefor don’t see Beane resigning Levi Wallace at what his market value will be and thus think it’s necessary to bring back Kevin Johnson.  I have however seen that ERFA can be resigned at incredible value, so it may be possible we see Wallace brought back and Johnson walking. 

 

Foster and McKenzie I had trouble making decisions on.  With the emergence of Duke Williams and the guaranteed targeting of better receivers in the off-season, it’s possible that both Foster and McKenzie are let go.  It’s also possible that McKenzie believes he has more value than $3.5M on the open market, so both of the receiver contracts could be off, but for now this is how I see it playing out. 

 

As for Shaq, I thought he would be worth more money but after looking at past defensive end contracts with similar stats to Shaq, $7.5M/year may be his market value.  The most comparable contract in the past 3 years was the 3yr/$27M contract that the Bills gave to Trent Murphy, and Murphy had had better stats at that point in his career.  As for Jordan Phillips, I originally had the Bills resigning him at 1 year, $10M, but Beane had said this morning that Phillips earned his right to test his value on the open market and therefor I think he’s unfortunately a goner.

           

2020 Players Leaving        

Levi Wallace - Bad value       

Frank Gore - Retired  

Lorenzo Alexander - Retired  

Jason Croom - Not needed    

Quinton Spain - Bad value     

Julian Stanford - Draft/FA replacement       

Kurt Coleman - Not needed   

Jordan Phillips – Test the Market

 

Most of these don’t call for an explanation.  Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth.  Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season.  Wallace and Phillips were explained above.

           

2020 Cuts    

Trent Murphy - $1.75M dead cap, $7.2M savings    

Matt Barkley - $200k dead cap, $1.8M savings        

Tyler Kroft - $1.6M dead cap, $4.8M savings in 2020, $6.85M savings in 2021      

 

All three of these guys in my opinion just simply aren’t worth the money that can be had back with such little dead cap.

 

These moves leave us with the following cap figures 2020 - $69.3M, 2021 - $52.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M

 

STEP FOUR – 2020 FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

 

2020 Free Agent Signings   

Devin Funchess - 1 year, $9.5M        

Case Keenum - 2 years, $8M 

Eric Ebron - 2 years, $16M    

Demar Dotson - 1 year, $7.5M          

De'Vondre Campbell - 2 years, $11M           

Morris Claiborne - 2 years, $9M        

 

I may be underestimating the amount of money that Eric Ebron and De’Vondre Campbell are going to demand.  However, the moves presented here eliminate any true “needs” in the draft and give the Bills the flexibility to truly draft best player available.  This would leave us only truly needing to draft another running back.  While following these signings I would still expect a first round pick or a trade to be spent on a receiver, it improves the offense enough that they would be able to suffice next year.  Anything extra is just cream on the crop.  This also replaces LoRax and Levi Wallace on the defensive side.

 

As for the cap space, there’s still a lot of moves that can be made, however cautiously.  2020 - $29.3M, 2021 - $30.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.2M.

 

While a lot of people will pound the table for Ngakuoe or an offensive lineman such as Scherff at this point, I say pump the brakes.  Ngakuoe is likely to get $15M+ per year, and then suddenly we’d be a bit against the cap in 2021 with less than $15M to take care of the small but still valuable pieces like Jon Feliciano.  The cap space is there to make the big move without ruining the ability to sign our young core, but that just comes down to a roster building philosophy.  Do you want to be able to have depth behind the young core?  Or do you want to pair the young core with a big splash and eliminate the depth, relying on your stars and starters?

 

ROSTER PRIOR TO THE DRAFT

QUARTERBACK: Josh Allen, Case Keenum

RUNNING BACK: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Senorise Perry, Pat DiMarco

WIDE RECEIVER: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Funchess, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts

TIGHT END: Eric Ebron, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith

OFFENSIVE TACKLE: Dion Dawkins, Demar Dotson, Ty Nsehke, Ryan Bates, LaAdrian Waddle

OFFENSIVE GUARD: Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Spencer Long, Ike Boettger,

CENTER: Mitch Morse

 

DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Corey Liuget, Vincent Taylor

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS: Matt Milano, De’Vondre Campbell, Vosean Joseph, Maurice Alexander

INSIDE LINEBACKERS: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson

CORNERBACKS: Tre White, Taron Johnson, Kevon Johnson, Morris Claiborne

SAFETY: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Dean Marlowe, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson

 

SPECIALISTS: Steven Hauschka, Corey Bojorquez, Reid Ferguson.

 

 

I haven’t started my scouting yet, but I would say target a WR on day one, RB/O-line/DE/CB on day 2, LB/CB/O-Line/QB on day 3.  Keep in mind, the Beane has 6 picks between the 5^th and 6^th round to trade around with.  I could see the Ebron signing being a stretch, and in the scenario that something along those lines don't happen, I would LOVE to add a tight end on day 2. 

 

Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season.  I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him. 

 

You may not agree with the moves I suggested or the exact amount of money I suggested making them for, the points stands true.  This team has PLENTY of money to not only retain their own, but improve the roster with outsiders as well.  This off-season should be a more than exciting time as a Bills fan.  

[Bookie Man]

Very intricate post. Good stuff, thanks! Ebron would be a nice get. Legit red zone threat.

[NewEra]

I think the actual contracts that will be given to Milano, Poyer Shaq and Dawkins are going to surprise you.  You’re undervaluing all of them on an open market.  Actual worth, you might be close.  Bidding wars will change that

[MAJBobby]

Just now, NC Book said:

Very intricate post. Good stuff, thanks! Ebron would be a nice get. Legit red zone threat.

 

Except he has close to the same catch % as Dawson Knox.

 

Career 59.96%

 

Knox 56.0%

[BuffaloHokie13]

6 minutes ago, elijah said:

Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season.  I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him. 

Yes, please. This offseason is their out with over $14M in cap savings and 0 dead cap on a trade. It'll be interesting to see where the new staff stands on him.

 

I'm putting together something similar in google sheets with cap management and the works, like last year, that I'll share around eventually. We agree in parts and disagree in others, but man does it feel great to have 52 players on the books before even re-signing anyone. Much less of a headache than last year.

[elijah]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think the actual contracts that will be given to Milano, Poyer Shaq and Dawkins are going to surprise you.  You’re undervaluing all of them on an open market.  Actual worth, you might be close.  Bidding wars will change that

I could understand this being the case for all 4 and am certainly a little worried that it will be the case for Poyer and Dawkins. 

 

However with Milano and Shaq I think some of us may be over estimating Shaq’s value, and Milano plays a lower paid position. 

[JGMcD2]

11 minutes ago, elijah said:

I broke this down in depth in an excel sheet and this is just a little bit of a recap of the excel sheet.  If there's enough interest in the actual numbers, I'll transfer the excel sheet to microsoft one drive or google sheets so y'all can have a look.  Also, sorry for the lengthiness of this, I tried to be more brief but also wanted to show that this isn't just a half-ass breakdown and that the numbers were properly taken into account behind it so no one can just shrug it off as not possible. 

 

STEP ONE - 2020 OFF-SEASON OUTLINE

 

I took numbers from Spotrac and outlaid the Bills roster for the next 5 years until 2024.  I used a projected salary cap of $199,000,000 in 2020, $206,000,000 in 2021 and increased by $6M per year every year following.  This is likely lower than what the true salary cap will be, but I was conservative with it intentionally as too not overspend and keep it more realistic.  I also went over rookie contracts for pick #20 in each round and found that the cap hit for all 7 rounds of rookies would be somewhere around $6M total.  I took this number and rounded it up to $7.25M as too account for the fact that Beane has shown his willingness to trade up and trade dead weight players for late picks.  After accounting for projected rookie contracts, current and future salaries and dead cap, this projects the Bills to have salary cap numbers of 2020 - $79.8M (including rollover), 2021 - $97.3M, 2022 - $161M, 2023 - $210.75M.

 

STEP TWO – “TRUE VIEW"

 

Beane has preached over and over again to reward his in house talent and stay out of cap hell.  In order to take this into account, before starting to spend the money on current Bills free agents and UFA’s, I gave contracts out too six players that I see as cornerstones for this franchise if we were to find sustained success.  The contracts are as follows:

 

Guaranteed Resignings 

2022: Josh Allen - 6 years, $190M (6th highest paid QB)    

2021: Dion Dawkins - 5 years, $57.5M (14th highest paid T)           

2022: Tremaine Edmunds - 5 years, $70M (4th highest paid MLB) 

2021: Tre'Davious White - 5 years, $80M (highest paid CB)            

           

Likely Resignings    

2021: Jordan Poyer - 2 years, $17M (12th highest paid Safety)       

2021: Matt Milano - 4 years, $32M (6th highest paid OLB)

 

I understand the numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re projections that at most are just a few million off.  Come time, it would be easy to see Dawkins, Edmunds and Poyer possibly getting paid a little more.  You could argue that Tre might get a 6 year contract instead of 5.  However, again, these are just projections.  The contracts should be accurate enough to get the point across.

 

With these projected resignings, this leaves cap space of 2020 - $79.8M, 2021 - $53.3M, 2022 - $71M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M.

 

STEP THREE – 2020 OFF-SEASON RESIGNINGS AND CUTS

 

Next up is who the Bills are going to resign and who they won’t resign and the value in these players.  This part may become a little more controversial than the last step as too who people think we should and shouldn’t resign, and who we actually will and won’t resign.

 

2020 Off-Season Resignings        

Senorise Perry - 1 year, $570k           

LaAdrian Waddle - 1 year, $2M        

Kevin Johnson - 1 year, $3.5M           

Maurice Alexander - 1, $1M  

Isaiah McKenzie - 1 year, $3.5M       

Robert Foster - 1 year, $2.75M         

Corey Liuget - 1 year, $2.5M 

Dean Marlowe - 1 year, $1M

Shaq Lawson - 3 years, $22.5M        

 

McBeane have placed an emphasis on special teams players, and therefore with the low values of Perry and Alexander and the contributions they should have to special teams, I believe they’ll be back.  I like the depth that Waddle, Liuget and Marlowe offer at the prices they should be willing to resign for and thus suggest bringing them back.  I’m not too well versed and the exclusive rights free agent clauses, and therefor don’t see Beane resigning Levi Wallace at what his market value will be and thus think it’s necessary to bring back Kevin Johnson.  I have however seen that ERFA can be resigned at incredible value, so it may be possible we see Wallace brought back and Johnson walking. 

 

Foster and McKenzie I had trouble making decisions on.  With the emergence of Duke Williams and the guaranteed targeting of better receivers in the off-season, it’s possible that both Foster and McKenzie are let go.  It’s also possible that McKenzie believes he has more value than $3.5M on the open market, so both of the receiver contracts could be off, but for now this is how I see it playing out. 

 

As for Shaq, I thought he would be worth more money but after looking at past defensive end contracts with similar stats to Shaq, $7.5M/year may be his market value.  The most comparable contract in the past 3 years was the 3yr/$27M contract that the Bills gave to Trent Murphy, and Murphy had had better stats at that point in his career.  As for Jordan Phillips, I originally had the Bills resigning him at 1 year, $10M, but Beane had said this morning that Phillips earned his right to test his value on the open market and therefor I think he’s unfortunately a goner.

           

2020 Players Leaving        

Levi Wallace - Bad value       

Frank Gore - Retired  

Lorenzo Alexander - Retired  

Jason Croom - Not needed    

Quinton Spain - Bad value     

Julian Stanford - Draft/FA replacement       

Kurt Coleman - Not needed   

Jordan Phillips – Test the Market

 

Most of these don’t call for an explanation.  Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth.  Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season.  Wallace and Phillips were explained above.

           

2020 Cuts    

Trent Murphy - $1.75M dead cap, $7.2M savings    

Matt Barkley - $200k dead cap, $1.8M savings        

Tyler Kroft - $1.6M dead cap, $4.8M savings in 2020, $6.85M savings in 2021      

 

All three of these guys in my opinion just simply aren’t worth the money that can be had back with such little dead cap.

 

These moves leave us with the following cap figures 2020 - $69.3M, 2021 - $52.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M

 

STEP FOUR – 2020 FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

 

2020 Free Agent Signings   

Devin Funchess - 1 year, $9.5M        

Case Keenum - 2 years, $8M 

Eric Ebron - 2 years, $16M    

Demar Dotson - 1 year, $7.5M          

De'Vondre Campbell - 2 years, $11M           

Morris Claiborne - 2 years, $9M        

 

I may be underestimating the amount of money that Eric Ebron and De’Vondre Campbell are going to demand.  However, the moves presented here eliminate any true “needs” in the draft and give the Bills the flexibility to truly draft best player available.  This would leave us only truly needing to draft another running back.  While following these signings I would still expect a first round pick or a trade to be spent on a receiver, it improves the offense enough that they would be able to suffice next year.  Anything extra is just cream on the crop.  This also replaces LoRax and Levi Wallace on the defensive side.

 

As for the cap space, there’s still a lot of moves that can be made, however cautiously.  2020 - $29.3M, 2021 - $30.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.2M.

 

While a lot of people will pound the table for Ngakuoe or an offensive lineman such as Scherff at this point, I say pump the brakes.  Ngakuoe is likely to get $15M+ per year, and then suddenly we’d be a bit against the cap in 2021 with less than $15M to take care of the small but still valuable pieces like Jon Feliciano.  The cap space is there to make the big move without ruining the ability to sign our young core, but that just comes down to a roster building philosophy.  Do you want to be able to have depth behind the young core?  Or do you want to pair the young core with a big splash and eliminate the depth, relying on your stars and starters?

 

ROSTER PRIOR TO THE DRAFT

QUARTERBACK: Josh Allen, Case Keenum

RUNNING BACK: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Senorise Perry, Pat DiMarco

WIDE RECEIVER: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Funchess, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts

TIGHT END: Eric Ebron, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith

OFFENSIVE TACKLE: Dion Dawkins, Demar Dotson, Ty Nsehke, Ryan Bates, LaAdrian Waddle

OFFENSIVE GUARD: Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Spencer Long, Ike Boettger,

CENTER: Mitch Morse

 

DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love

DEFENSIVE TACKLE: Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Corey Liuget, Vincent Taylor

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS: Matt Milano, De’Vondre Campbell, Vosean Joseph, Maurice Alexander

INSIDE LINEBACKERS: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson

CORNERBACKS: Tre White, Taron Johnson, Kevon Johnson, Morris Claiborne

SAFETY: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Dean Marlowe, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson

 

SPECIALISTS: Steven Hauschka, Corey Bojorquez, Reid Ferguson.

 

 

I haven’t started my scouting yet, but I would say target a WR on day one, RB/O-line/DE/CB on day 2, LB/CB/O-Line/QB on day 3.  Keep in mind, the Beane has 6 picks between the 5^th and 6^th round to trade around with.  I could see the Ebron signing being a stretch, and in the scenario that something along those lines don't happen, I would LOVE to add a tight end on day 2. 

 

Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season.  I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him. 

 

You may not agree with the moves I suggested or the exact amount of money I suggested making them for, the points stands true.  This team has PLENTY of money to not only retain their own, but improve the roster with outsiders as well.  This off-season should be a more than exciting time as a Bills fan.  

 

Thanks for taking the time putting this post together. I wanted to clarify some stuff on ERFA for you because it seemed like you weren’t really clear on the concept.

 

It happens when a player reaches the end of their contract with less than 3 accrued seasons. The player may only resign with their original team at the league minimum tender (or more if the team chooses to offer more). They’re not allowed to negotiate with other teams, they can only sign with us as long as we tender them a contract. 
 

Wallace, Foster and Croom will all be back under contact and most likely will be making the league minimum. 

[elijah]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Yes, please. This offseason is their out with over $14M in cap savings and 0 dead cap on a trade. It'll be interesting to see where the new staff stands on him.

 

I'm putting together something similar in google sheets with cap management and the works, like last year, that I'll share around eventually. We agree in parts and disagree in others, but man does it feel great to have 52 players on the books before even re-signing anyone. Much less of a headache than last year.

I must’ve missed it when you shared it last year, I’ll be interested to see what it looks like in comparison to mine. 

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thanks for taking the time putting this post together. I wanted to clarify some stuff on ERFA for you because it seemed like you weren’t really clear on the concept.

 

It happens when a player reaches the end of their contract with less than 3 accrued seasons. The player may only resign with their original team at the league minimum tender (or more if the team chooses to offer more). They’re not allowed to negotiate with other teams, they can only sign with us as long as we tender them a contract. 
 

Wallace, Foster and Croom will all be back under contact and most likely will be making the league minimum. 

That’s huge, especially in Wallace’s case.  His market value is probably around $8M, to have him on a league minimum would be one of the better value contracts in the league. 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, elijah said:

That’s huge, especially in Wallace’s case.  His market value is probably around $8M, to have him on a league minimum would be one of the better value contracts in the league. 

Yes, it is! 
 

ERFA typically only applies to UDFA. Considering it’s really rare to find players that were drafted or signed to short term deals with less than 2 years of service time. 
 

What will most likely happen is we will tender Wallace, Foster and Croom a contract and they will sign almost immediately. There is no reason for them to wait because they cannot play anywhere else... they could sit out but that would make them ERFA the following year as well because no service time would be accrued. 
 

The beauty of this as well is that they’ll all be RFA next year... so we can’t match their best offer if we decide to... or gain compensation if we tender them at the requisite level to receive compensation. 

[Bookie Man]

8 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Except he has close to the same catch % as Dawson Knox.

 

Career 59.96%

 

Knox 56.0%

I meant more of his ability to get open in the endzone. Dude caught a bunch of Tds. But he also did have Luck throwing him the ball the year he had 13 scores...

[MAJBobby]

10 minutes ago, elijah said:

I could understand this being the case for all 4 and am certainly a little worried that it will be the case for Poyer and Dawkins. 

 

However with Milano and Shaq I think some of us may be over estimating Shaq’s value, and Milano plays a lower paid position. 

I think you are about right with Milano at 8M AVV right now.  I don't think you are with Shaq.  He is going to get 10M AVV on open market

Just now, NC Book said:

I meant more of his ability to get open in the endzone. Dude caught a bunch of Tds. But he also did have Luck throwing him the ball the year he had 13 scores...

Does it really matter is he gets open if he drops (5 this year) it or cant catch it

 

Knox had 6 drops and a 56% Catch Rate

Ebron had 5 drops and a 59.6% catch rate

 

Knox =  Ebron just younger and cheaper

Edited January 7, 2020 by MAJBobby

[BuffaloBaumer]

Very, I mean VERY nice work putting that together...wow

[reddogblitz]

I like the idea of signing Case Keenum.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes, it is! 
 

ERFA typically only applies to UDFA. Considering it’s really rare to find players that were drafted or signed to short term deals with less than 2 years of service time. 
 

What will most likely happen is we will tender Wallace, Foster and Croom a contract and they will sign almost immediately. There is no reason for them to wait because they cannot play anywhere else... they could sit out but that would make them ERFA the following year as well because no service time would be accrued. 
 

The beauty of this as well is that they’ll all be RFA next year... so we can’t match their best offer if we decide to... or gain compensation if we tender them at the requisite level to receive compensation. 

 

 

 

....good call bud...thanks.....

[Solomon Grundy]

You were doing good until the FA signings. Bojorquez also would've been replaced.

[Bookie Man]

3 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Does it really matter is he gets open if he drops it or cant catch it

 

He was ok enough to grab 13 touchdowns in a season. I'd take a guy with average hands that gets open over a guy that can't get open. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, NC Book said:

 

He was ok enough to grab 13 touchdowns in a season. I'd take a guy with average hands that gets open over a guy that can't get open. 

Show me where he doesn't get open.

 

and yeah a guy that has many years in the league should be better than a Raw Rookie in a year, but guess what EBRON was no BETTER than Knox this year

[Bookie Man]

 

4 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Show me where he doesn't get open.

 

and yeah a guy that has many years in the league should be better than a Raw Rookie in a year, but guess what EBRON was no BETTER than Knox this year

I wasn't referring to Knox, I never mentioned Knox. I meant in general.  I like what Knox and what he brings, he's going to be a beast. I think Knox and Ebron would present some good matchups for us. I think Ebron would be a good addition, that's all I said lol.

[MAJBobby]

4 minutes ago, NC Book said:

 

I wasn't referring to Knox, I never mentioned Knox. I meant in general.  I like what Knox and what he brings, he's going to be a beast. I think Knox and Ebron would present some good matchups for us. I think Ebron would be a good addition, that's all I said lol.

And I said he is not better than what we have on the roster. You want real improvement in the position your Target should be Hooper and Henry. 

[NewEra]

42 minutes ago, elijah said:

I could understand this being the case for all 4 and am certainly a little worried that it will be the case for Poyer and Dawkins. 

 

However with Milano and Shaq I think some of us may be over estimating Shaq’s value, and Milano plays a lower paid position. 

Spotrac projects Miilano to 4 years 53 mill.  13.3 per year 

 

 

 

[Penfield45]

we would be the laughing stock of the league if we gave Allen a contract extension this offseason and made him the 6th highest paid QB

 

let him sit on his rookie contract, it's there for a reason. we don't owe Allen anything, he has yet to prove he is a franchise QB here. 

[John from Riverside]

A lot to chew on there......I really dont want to see Lee Smith back.......Robert Foster needs to come back REALLY cheap because I have lost all faith in him as a player in this offense.

 

Based on these players I would think WR and RB would have to be big time needs in the draft.   I really wish Andre Roberts was more then just the ace on special teams returns at this point......I am wondering why he is not a better offensive player.

[elijah]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Spotrac projects Miilano to 4 years 53 mill.  13.3 per year 

 

 

 

When did they put the project for Milano up? I was looking for it when I made my excel sheet ( about a week ago) but there was only a few projected players done 

[Bookie Man]

Just now, MAJBobby said:

And I said he is not better than what we have on the roster. You want real improvement in the position your Target should be Hooper and Henry. 

You don't think Ebron would be an upgrade over Lee Smith? I like Sweeney, but I would say that an Ebron would draw more attention and be more of a threat than Sweeney as of right now. I would be ecstatic with Henry or Hooper. I would be happy with Ebron as well.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Penfield45 said:

we would be the laughing stock of the league if we gave Allen a contract extension this offseason and made him the 6th highest paid QB

 

let him sit on his rookie contract, it's there for a reason. we don't owe Allen anything, he has yet to prove he is a franchise QB here. 

 

A. We can't extend Allen this offseason by rule. A player on a rookie deal must play 3 years before being extended. 

 

B. That is not what the post suggested anyway. It suggested extending Allen in 2022 (by which I take it to mean after the 2021 season). 

 

 

Just a point for the OP - I think we are going to extend Dawkins this offseason. They don't want him playing on the final year of his deal in 2020. 

[elijah]

2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:

we would be the laughing stock of the league if we gave Allen a contract extension this offseason and made him the 6th highest paid QB

 

let him sit on his rookie contract, it's there for a reason. we don't owe Allen anything, he has yet to prove he is a franchise QB here. 

I’m not suggesting to resign Allen this off-season, I’m suggesting we resign Allen in 2022 to this money. 

 

Its to account for it early so as too not overspend in the long run. 

[MAJBobby]

Just now, NC Book said:

You don't think Ebron would be an upgrade over Lee Smith? I like Sweeney, but I would say that an Ebron would draw more attention and be more of a threat than Sweeney as of right now. I would be ecstatic with Henry or Hooper. I would be happy with Ebron as well.

Different Skill Set. Can’t compare an inline blocking TE to a Flex TE. 
 

so if they sign Ebron to do what Lee Smith does NO HE would NOT be an upgrade 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, NC Book said:

You don't think Ebron would be an upgrade over Lee Smith? I like Sweeney, but I would say that an Ebron would draw more attention and be more of a threat than Sweeney as of right now. I would be ecstatic with Henry or Hooper. I would be happy with Ebron as well.

 

Ebron and Lee Smith essentially play different positions. Lee Smith is an inline blocking tight end. Ebron is a split end. 

[John from Riverside]

41 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

I think you are about right with Milano at 8M AVV right now.  I don't think you are with Shaq.  He is going to get 10M AVV on open market

Does it really matter is he gets open if he drops (5 this year) it or cant catch it

 

Knox had 6 drops and a 56% Catch Rate

Ebron had 5 drops and a 59.6% catch rate

 

Knox =  Ebron just younger and cheaper

I realize Knox has had some whiffs.....but I would still put him as a much better blocker then Ebron.

 

but offensively your point is well taken

[JMF2006]

58 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I think the actual contracts that will be given to Milano, Poyer Shaq and Dawkins are going to surprise you.  You’re undervaluing all of them on an open market.  Actual worth, you might be close.  Bidding wars will change that

 

No bidding war if they accept extensions before their contracts run out (Dawkins Milano)

 

Is Poyer great or is he a really good systems fit? I think he stays at between 7 and 9m per for 4 yrs he knows the grass ain't always greener elsewhere.

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I realize Knox has had some whiffs.....but I would still put him as a much better blocker then Ebron.

 

but offensively your point is well taken

this wasn’t meant to be a dig at Knox. Only TE they should be after in UFA is someone better than Knox. Ebron isn’t better than Knox. 
 

knox is younger, cheaper and higher upside than Ebron and essentially already at Enron’s Level as a rookie. That is what I was getting at with this post. 

Just now, JMF2006 said:

 

No bidding war if they accept extensions before their contracts run out (Dawkins Milano)

 

Is Poyer great or is he a really good systems fit? I think he stays at between 7 and 9m per for 4 yrs he knows the grass ain't always greener elsewhere.

IMO you are only paying one of the two Safeties (because of the system). So who is more important Hyde or Poyer. 

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, elijah said:

When did they put the project for Milano up? I was looking for it when I made my excel sheet ( about a week ago) but there was only a few projected players done 

Dunno.  It’s up now

[Bookie Man]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Different Skill Set. Can’t compare an inline blocking TE to a Flex TE. 
 

so if they sign Ebron to do what Lee Smith does NO HE would NOT be an upgrade 

 

I think I would sacrifice what Lee Smith brings in blocking to have the versatility that Ebron would bring to the offense. I think the 2019 Bills would score more ppg with Ebron in the lineup rather than Smith. Maybe only slightly, but I think it would be more. If that would be the case he would be an upgrade imo.

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

this wasn’t meant to be a dig at Knox. Only TE they should be after in UFA is someone better than Knox. Ebron isn’t better than Knox. 
 

knox is younger, cheaper and higher upside than Ebron and essentially already at Enron’s Level as a rookie. That is what I was getting at with this post. 

IMO you are only paying one of the two Safeties (because of the system). So who is more important Hyde or Poyer. 

 

I think its Hyde

[PIZ]

Thanks for posting. Your poster name reminded me of this song I used to listen to as a kid. Always thought Hank was saying “Elijahhhhhhhhh”!
 

 

[MAJBobby]

1 minute ago, NC Book said:

 

I think I would sacrifice what Lee Smith brings in blocking to have the versatility that Ebron would bring to the offense. I think the 2019 Bills would score more ppg with Ebron in the lineup rather than Smith. Maybe only slightly, but I think it would be more. If that would be the case he would be an upgrade imo.

I don’t. Ebron can’t block to save his life. 

2 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

I think its Hyde

me too I think The Rookie they kept on the 53 all year Jaquan Johnson is anticipated to take over for Poyer or Neal when they don’t pay Poyer 

[peterpan]

We have 3 more seasons to load up our roster with all pro talent and win the super bowl.  3 seasons of Allen on his rookie deal then he gets a big payday.  After that, this team will be 100% dependant on Allen. 

 

So Beane needs to load up on talent NOW.  We MUST retain our good guys or find BETTER ones if we let them walk. It has to be done THIS offseason because, it takes a season to gain chemistry and gel with your teamates.  There won't be result immediately.  It will take a while.  So by 2021, this team will be ready to rock.  

 

This off-season for FA and draft, and next year's (2021) draft and that's it.  That's when this team must be built to win a Superbowl.  If we don't, the plan has failed.

 

So sign someone like Amari Cooper.  Sign someone like Clowney, especially if Shaq walks.  Sign the best free agent RT.   Set up the contracts so they can be cut/traded after 2022 with no cap hit, so that they don't mess with our cap situation when Allen needs his contract.  

 

Then you draft WR and pass rusher in a draft loaded with those players. 

 

It really must be done.  MUST

 

[PIZ]

Like Case Keenum idea. I bet they keep Levi Wallace and Spain. 
 

Hope they sign a starting OL (don’t care if OG or OT). I also think Ford comes back strong in his 2nd season, as well as Knox, Oliver, Joseph, Johnson and Sweeney. 
 

I would like to see a big time pass rushing DE in free agency and also a big DT to replace Jordan Phillips...he’s too inconsistent for me. 
 

I think they draft 2 WRs, a DE, a RB, a CB, and LB at the top of their draft. 
 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, elijah said:

Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth.  Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season.  

 

Firstly.. thanks for the effort in the first post... always enjoy reading peoples thoughts in this area, particularly when they are as well throught and as detailed as yours...

 

I want to question you on Spain though...

 

He has already come out and said he wants to stay in Buffalo and is  prepared to get a deal done prior to FA starting... So I think your figures of what his expecations may be are on the high side...

 

Also,.. not sure if you have seen this, but a couple of his influential team mates love him... Now I know that they are not going to come out and say anything negative about him, but the comments seem more positive than you usually see...

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/buffalo-bills-quinton-spain-back-mitch-morse-josh-allen/

 

 

Quote

We’d love to have him back. He deserves to get paid this offseason. The guy started every game, I don’t know if he missed a snap. A great person to be around, smart as hell, he made this offensive line so much better, helped me out a lot. I owe a lot to Quinton Spain,” center Mitch Morse

 

Quote

 

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen echoed Morse, calling Spain someone he could depend upon.

“He’s been awesome for us. Just his mindset, his attitude, the way he plays, he brings a fire. He’s a really good dude, too,” Allen said. “I love him and I wish we’d get him back too. I know it’s the nature of the business. If I had a say, we’d have in back.”

 

 

Look.. he is not going to play for nothing ,so I think if they really want him they would need to make an offer that is fair... I would put this at 3 years $20Mil...$10 MIl guaranteed.... Ive got that from John Miller getting paid 3 years $16.5Mil in FA last year  who I would rate as a much lesser player..  

 

It seems to me that most people dont want to pay him even half that as he is just an "average" player at the position.. .

 

The issue is though that he was brought in on a "prove it ' deal on chump change, and he has proven it in my eyes.,.

 

It looks at odds to the message that they want to send of guys getting a chance and proving themselves...  It may set a bad example if they dont make a genuine attempt to keep him and just let him walk out the door into Free Agency...

 

 

[Mat68]

Alot to take in.  I think White is extended and that's it.  The rest of the guys pick up options, offer tenders.  Spain, Lawson  I could see an early pick on tackle move Ford to guard.  Obvious needs imo, Wr, Rb, OT, LB and Cb.