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Allen or Watson ( Who would you rather have leading your team Saturday)


Buffalo716

Who would you rather have   

311 members have voted

  1. 1. This Saturday: If you had the choice of either QB, who would you want leading your team

    • Josh Allen
      158
    • Deshaun Watson
      153


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For this particular team?  Allen. 

 

In general? Watson.

 

Might have a different answer in a few years. Watson has a few more years of experience than Allen does.

Edited by matter2003
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21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately?  Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not.  I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers.

Do you think Watson isn’t smart?  And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense.  If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure.  Our defense allows the game to always be tight.


Well here’s the data for all WR/TE on each of the 2 teams that are over 60% catch rate, though I don’t think it tells much:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StilKe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FellDa01.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FullWi01.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AkinJo00.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoutKe00.htm


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeasCo00.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm

 

Noteworthy observations include:

- in Stills’ first year with Watson, he’s having the 2nd highest catch rate of his career

- for both Nuk and Fuller, their major uptick in catch percentage correlated with Watson’s 2nd year as a starter

- McKenzie and Smoke have seen a huge uptick in catch % this year in comparison to their previous career %. Beasley, OTOH, has his 3rd-lowest catch rate in 2019 (though that’s not exactly an outlier; he’s been up and down year to year)

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


Well here’s the data for all WR/TE on each of the 2 teams that are over 60% catch rate, though I don’t think it tells much:

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/StilKe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FellDa01.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FullWi01.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AkinJo00.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CoutKe00.htm


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJo02.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BeasCo00.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/McKeIs00.htm

 

Noteworthy observations include:

- in Stills’ first year with Watson, he’s having the 2nd highest catch rate of his career

- for both Nuk and Fuller, their major uptick in catch percentage correlated with Watson’s 2nd year as a starter

- McKenzie and Smoke have seen a huge uptick in catch % this year in comparison to their previous career %. Beasley, OTOH, has his 3rd-lowest catch rate in 2019 (though that’s not exactly an outlier; he’s been up and down year to year)

I wonder how repeatable(correlated) Catch% is from year to year for all receivers? I could check when I have some time! I mean Hopkins jumped from mid 50s to near 70 the last 2 years. What happened? less jump balls, more easy catches, System alteration? Did his skill improve?

Edited by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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31 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately?  Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not.  I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers.

Do you think Watson isn’t smart?  And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense.  If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure.  Our defense allows the game to always be tight.

Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play. Look at the way the Ravens could just tee off on Allen because nobody else is a threat. Watson doesn’t see that kind of pressure often. Allen has had to find ways to survive and make plays where the level of intensity he faces on the field is far beyond what Watson is accustomed to.

 

Josh has been making plays when there are no good options. What will Watson do when his options are more limited due to the better defenses and gameplans?

 

Winning in the playoffs you have to be very smart and very sharp to figure out how to win in the 2nd half. Even smart QBs like Brees and Manning failed many times because they couldn’t adjust in-game like say Tom Brady. Allen has shown signs this year that he figures out exactly what the other team is doing by the end of the first half. 

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1 hour ago, Troll Toll said:

Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play.

 

Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. 

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41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. 

What's wrong with getting sacked 106 times in 2 years? lol

 

Bills D-line better tear them up. 

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30 minutes ago, Real McNasty said:

What's wrong with getting sacked 106 times in 2 years? lol

 

Bills D-line better tear them up. 

 

Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be in the backfield a lot. They might not pile up the sacks because Watson can escape but they will be creating pressure.

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4 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Allen, I think his smarts are criminally underrated and he has the brains to figure out playoff defenses and outsmart them. I have reservations on how Watson will fare against the best defenses in the playoffs. Playoff defenses are a totally different animal than regular season defenses. Allen has had to fight tooth and nail for 2 years with an inadequate supporting cast. Deshaun has gotten to cruise along much of that time. How will Watson react to the easy plays not being there? Allen has been in a perpetual dogfight for 2 years with every mistake magnified because he has no room for errors with the weak supporting cast. 

While I agree with most of this, Watson has a full additional year of experience in the NFL.  You can't discount that.

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oliver and Jordan Phillips will be in the backfield a lot. They might not pile up the sacks because Watson can escape but they will be creating pressure.

I so hope this is correct

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Watson has a good oline? Have you watched Houston at all? I mean it hasn't quite been 32nd in the league this year like it was last season but it isn't even nearly average. 

Good compared to Buffalo’s. It hasn’t stuck out to me watching Watson where guys will routinely let someone go untouched through the middle of the line like they do in Buffalo. The past few years in Buffalo is some of the worst pass blocking I’ve ever seen. That said, I’ve only really had the chance to watch a handful of Watson’s games. 

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6 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Could it be that one throws a more catchable football or perhaps more accurately?  Watson has always been a very accurate passer with a high completion %. Allen has not.  I think it would interesting to compare the drop rates of the receivers through their careers.

Do you think Watson isn’t smart?  And Watson plays with the 28th ranked defense.  If he doesn’t play well, they lose. I call that pressure.  Our defense allows the game to always be tight.

 

In fairness he does throw some balls up for grabs that his receiver comes down with.  A lot of those passes our receivers would not catch.  It is the same for a lot of QBs.  Their receivers catch balls ours would not.  Saying that... Allen definitely has to improve in that area as he also throws balls that no one would catch.

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5 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Watson has guys he can lean on and a good o-line. Allen basically always has to be the guy to make a play. Look at the way the Ravens could just tee off on Allen because nobody else is a threat. Watson doesn’t see that kind of pressure often. Allen has had to find ways to survive and make plays where the level of intensity he faces on the field is far beyond what Watson is accustomed to.

 

Josh has been making plays when there are no good options. What will Watson do when his options are more limited due to the better defenses and gameplans?

 

Winning in the playoffs you have to be very smart and very sharp to figure out how to win in the 2nd half. Even smart QBs like Brees and Manning failed many times because they couldn’t adjust in-game like say Tom Brady. Allen has shown signs this year that he figures out exactly what the other team is doing by the end of the first half. 

 

Watson does not have a good Oline.

 

Darn... I once found a site that listed pressure times... ie a better stat than time to throw because it actually timed how long until the QB got pressured, which is a much more accurate gauge IMO.  Can't find that stat now.  I know Allen was seeing pressure pretty quick.  I'd like to see where Watson ranks comparatively because that would be a pretty good gauge on how Olines are doing comparatively.

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8 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Good compared to Buffalo’s. It hasn’t stuck out to me watching Watson where guys will routinely let someone go untouched through the middle of the line like they do in Buffalo. The past few years in Buffalo is some of the worst pass blocking I’ve ever seen. That said, I’ve only really had the chance to watch a handful of Watson’s games. 

 

Allen has a better line than Watson and it isn't even really close. Last year they both had poor lines. This year Buffalo's is somewhere around average and Houston's is still bottom 5 or 6. 

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Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 

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2 hours ago, Bill_with_it said:

Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 


Yeah you’re right I keep seeing Watson quit so I want Allen because he doesn’t do that. 
 

 

Edited by Chemical
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21 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

Allen, I think his smarts are criminally underrated and he has the brains to figure out playoff defenses and outsmart them. I have reservations on how Watson will fare against the best defenses in the playoffs. Playoff defenses are a totally different animal than regular season defenses. Allen has had to fight tooth and nail for 2 years with an inadequate supporting cast. Deshaun has gotten to cruise along much of that time. How will Watson react to the easy plays not being there? Allen has been in a perpetual dogfight for 2 years with every mistake magnified because he has no room for errors with the weak supporting cast. 


How’d Watson do in college in the playoffs? Wish there was some precedent we could look at. 
 

Edit: Watson also already did pretty well against the best defense this season. 

Edited by Chemical
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On 1/1/2020 at 6:21 PM, elijah said:

If you’re choosing Allen over Watson you’re blinding yourself as a Bills fan. 

 

This shouldn’t be a debate. 

 

Im as big of an Allen supporter as there is, but Watson is primed to be one of the best in the league for a long long time. 

Is this a serious question? Hahahahaha.....The sad part is, U people are serious.....I like Allen and what he COULD be....That dude is not even close to Watson right now....I'm sure the same people that voted Allen, would tell U he's better than a young Aaron Rogers too.....That's how crazy your answer is.

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42 minutes ago, Jaywrizzo said:

Is this a serious question? Hahahahaha.....The sad part is, U people are serious.....I like Allen and what he COULD be....That dude is not even close to Watson right now....I'm sure the same people that voted Allen, would tell U he's better than a young Aaron Rogers too.....That's how crazy your answer is.


It’s actually much closer than some folks think.

 

Just look at their respective standard and advanced passing stats from 2019. It’ll surprise you.

47 minutes ago, Chemical said:


How’d Watson do in college in the playoffs? Wish there was some precedent we could look at. 


Oh, so are we awarding Super Bowl championships for college performance now? Good, let’s sign Tebow and we’ll finally have our Lombardi!!!!!

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Allen has a better line than Watson and it isn't even really close. Last year they both had poor lines. This year Buffalo's is somewhere around average and Houston's is still bottom 5 or 6. 


It’s pretty close in adjusted sack rate:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019
 

Also, Allen and Watson have a similar scramble rate according to the advanced passing stats from PFR I posted yesterday 

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3 hours ago, Bill_with_it said:

Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 


are you saying Watson lacks this so-called “grit”? I’ll take Allen too today obviously, but i just love these amorphous traits that Allen has and the other guy, whoever it is, somehow lacks.

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21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


It’s actually much closer than some folks think.

 

Just look at their respective standard and advanced passing stats from 2019. It’ll surprise you.

Let’s do that:

 

TD%: Watson with 5.3 to 4.3, a full percentage better. INT% is 2.4 to 2.0.

 

Y/A: 7.7 vs 6.7, Watson. A full yard more per attempt.

 

1st downs: Watson with 191 compared to 146. That’s a difference of 45 1st downs!! And yes, Watson did have 34 more attempts but that’s still a large difference. Watson also had 62 more completions on the year.

 

On target%: Watson 9th in the NFL, Josh 21st.

 

Bad throw%: Josh with the 5th most, Watson with the 22nd most.

 

Batted balls: Josh with the 13th most balls batted at the line despite being 21st in attempts. Deshaun Watson was 24th despite being 16th in attempts.

 

Completed air yards per attempt: Watson 9th, Allen 14th.

 

It’s certainly close in the way the 15th best QB in the NFL is closer to the 6th than he is to the 32nd, but definitely not close in the sense that there are a lot of statistical categories that each QB beats the other in. 

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1 hour ago, Chemical said:


Yeah you’re right I keep seeing Watson quit so I want Allen because he doesn’t do that. 
 

 

I never said watson quit. Has watson been in an obvious qb sneek and literally man handle two dts and a lb for a first down? Has watson hurdled a6’5” lb? Has watson stiff armed the absolute life out of a 250 lb mlb? Dont put words in my mouth..

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10 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

I never said watson quit. Has watson been in an obvious qb sneek and literally man handle two dts and a lb for a first down? Has watson hurdled a6’5” lb? Has watson stiff armed the absolute life out of a 250 lb mlb? Dont put words in my mouth..


this is a thread comparing two players. You said you want one because he doesn’t quit. That implies the other does. Otherwise why say it? 

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Just now, Chemical said:


this is a thread comparing two players. You said you want one because he doesn’t quit. That implies the other does. Otherwise why say it? 

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.

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42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

.


Oh, so are we awarding Super Bowl championships for college performance now? Good, let’s sign Tebow and we’ll finally have our Lombardi!!!!!

 
 


No, but I’m not the one making assertions. I was responding to someone who said Watson might not be able to adjust to better defenses comparatively. His track record shows the complete opposite. 

1 minute ago, Bill_with_it said:

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.

 Great. That part is your opinion which yes you are allowed to have of course no one ever said otherwise. (Do I need to say that before every post?)

 

but it’s not based in any reality. When has Watson shown less “no quit” than Allen. One example would be nice. Was it the second Alabama game or the time he came back from his rookie season ending injury to put up just as impressive numbers year two?

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12 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

No it doesnt, if that was my intent i would have said so. The only implication that was inferred from my statement is that Allen in my opinion (which i am allowed to have right?) has no quit in him and i would say more so than Watson. That isnt to say Watson is a quitter. I never used an absolute. Do I need to post more substantive evidence than I previously stated to further solidify my stance? I can.


please do

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1 hour ago, BringBackOrton said:

Let’s do that:

 

TD%: Watson with 5.3 to 4.3, a full percentage better. INT% is 2.4 to 2.0.

 

Y/A: 7.7 vs 6.7, Watson. A full yard more per attempt.

 

1st downs: Watson with 191 compared to 146. That’s a difference of 45 1st downs!! And yes, Watson did have 34 more attempts but that’s still a large difference. Watson also had 62 more completions on the year.

 

On target%: Watson 9th in the NFL, Josh 21st.

 

Bad throw%: Josh with the 5th most, Watson with the 22nd most.

 

Batted balls: Josh with the 13th most balls batted at the line despite being 21st in attempts. Deshaun Watson was 24th despite being 16th in attempts.

 

Completed air yards per attempt: Watson 9th, Allen 14th.

 

It’s certainly close in the way the 15th best QB in the NFL is closer to the 6th than he is to the 32nd, but definitely not close in the sense that there are a lot of statistical categories that each QB beats the other in. 


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.


I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread).

46 minutes ago, Chemical said:


No, but I’m not the one making assertions. I was responding to someone who said Watson might not be able to adjust to better defenses comparatively. His track record shows the complete opposite. 

 Great. That part is your opinion which yes you are allowed to have of course no one ever said otherwise. (Do I need to say that before every post?)

 

but it’s not based in any reality. When has Watson shown less “no quit” than Allen. One example would be nice. Was it the second Alabama game or the time he came back from his rookie season ending injury to put up just as impressive numbers year two?


His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

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8 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.


I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating earlier in this thread.


His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.


Ok if you’re enforcing an NFL only look at their development then the point is neutral at best and I could probably make a case for Watson (playing well against NE comes to mind). 
 

Edit: just looked up his numbers against the top defense this season. 234 yds 3TD 0INT 140rtg

 

again, I’m not the one trying to make a point, just countering someone saying he MIGHT not be able to rise to the occasion against better defenses. 

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3 minutes ago, Chemical said:


Ok if you’re enforcing an NFL only look at their development then the point is neutral at best and I could probably make a case for Watson (playing well against NE comes to mind). 


I guess I thought that was the point: that Allen and Watson has such markedly different college experiences that it’s not a valid comparison.

 

As for the case, I think I’ve been clear on my position: right now it’s Watson, but it’s a lot closer than some folks imply.

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2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


I guess I thought that was the point: that Allen and Watson has such markedly different college experiences that it’s not a valid comparison.

 

As for the case, I think I’ve been clear on my position: right now it’s Watson, but it’s a lot closer than some folks imply.


that’s fine, but I’m responding to someone throwing out wild speculation about a player with no basis. I’m trying to provide some reasons it is off base. Nothing more than that. 

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54 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm

 

There’s a fair bit that you’re leaving out:

 

That apparently huge difference between 9 and 20 in on-target percentage amounts to 3%. Not exactly the chasm you’re implying.

 

Same goes for bad throw percentage; the difference is 4%.

 

The difference in CAY/PA is half a yard.

 

Now for the stuff that you didn’t mention:

 

Allen suffered a drop rate of 7.2%—highest in the NFL. Watson’s was 4.4%. WR play matters.
 

Both QBs faced the same number of hurried despite Watson having more attempts; Allen was also hit 4 more times. OL play matters.

 

Even though their respective efficiencies on RPOs are very similar, Josh had less than half of Watson’s combined run/pass attempts from RPO plays. Play calling matters.


I find it rather interesting that you left out a significant measure of context after calling me out for cherry picking/obfuscating (actually it was for being “strawmanny” earlier in this thread (and it was in a different thread).


His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

Drop rate is excluded in on target throws. It’s the point of the stat. It’s also not taken to account in bad throw percentage.

 

A difference of 4% in bad throws is miniscule but a difference of 3% in drops is significant. Interesting.

 

That’s a new one, being accused of “cherry picking,” when I provided 7 stats.

 

None of the stats you provided demonstrated that Allen is better than or equal to Watson, rather that his supporting cast is better. Another interesting point.

 

Please demonstrate the advance stats that Allen beat Watson in. If they are “really close,” there has to be at least a few that Allen is better at, right? If a contest is 10 to 1, is it really close? Or 12 to 2?

Edited by BringBackOrton
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1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:


It’s pretty close in adjusted sack rate:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019
 

Also, Allen and Watson have a similar scramble rate according to the advanced passing stats from PFR I posted yesterday 

 

Pretty much supports what I said - Houston are bottom 6 and the Bills are about average. They are probably a couple of spots lower than I would have them on eye test but nothing there that significantly contradicts my view. 

36 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

His NFL track record?

 

Not really. He has one playoff win over the Connor Cook lead Raiders.

 

I like Watson, but let’s be accurate.

 

You might have been talking about BO'B here I am not sure but Watson wasn't yet drafted when they beat the Raiders. I think that was the Brocketship. 

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It’s game day!!! which, to me, is the Sabbath, or day of rest for debating the issues of our team and players...

 

Now, we must all come together as Bills fans....Let’s go Josh Allen!!! Let’s go Bills!!!??????

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3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Drop rate is excluded in on target throws. It’s the point of the stat.


True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic.

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4 hours ago, Bill_with_it said:

Allen without a doubt. Somebody will literally have to break him to make him quit. He showed the grit on that qb sneak a couple of games ago that he  does not know the word quit. To me thats much more important than just about anything except pin point accuracy regarding the qb spot. 

He also showed that toughness on those 2 sailing bricks he threw to Knox in the end zone vs the pats.  I love JA, but that’s the reality of why everyone with working eyes would choose Watson over allen.  Nothing to be ashamed of, Watson is better than most imo

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15 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:


True. Do you suppose that such a humongous drop rate might have a trickle-down effect on stats like YPA, TD %, INT%, and CAY/PA? That was more my point in citing that statistic.

No. If a 4% bad throw rate isn’t significant, neither is a 3% difference in drop rate.

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