Allen or Watson ( Who would you rather have leading your team Saturday)

[CodeMonkey]

3 minutes ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:

But he will still get the 100+ million dollar contract, that contract alone will put this team at a huge disadvantage for what Allen brings to the table as a QB. Same with White when he gets his 88mil, people will not be loving him so much when he has 3 INT's at the end of the season and cannot shut down a high end WR. We will be like the Washington fans trying to figure out why we paid a zone CB like Revis.

Probably.  He is certainly the best QB the Bills have had in quite some time.  The whole salary cap tango GMs need to do makes my head hurt, so I generally don't think about it

Edited January 5, 2020 by CodeMonkey

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt Ryan. Matt Stafford. Cam Newton. 

 

Just off the top of my head. 

Guy named Brees.  But he just threw a pick into double coverage so he is now a bum of course.

[Billl]

14 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Oh good. Another emotionally unhinged character that is unable to discuss Allen without having a tantrum.

 

Address the points of discussion or move on. 

I have addressed the points.  The fact that he made several completely boneheaded plays is only the second most concerning thing about him.  The fact that he got away with almost all of them and still only managed 19 points is far more damning.  People want to pretend he’s some gunslinger, but he’s not.  Gunslingers make the other team pay when they fail to capitalize on mistakes.  The Texans missed several opportunities to intercept passes, recover fumbles, punch it in after being handed a short field, etc., and they never did.  They gave Josh chance after chance after chance to make Houston pay, and he couldn’t do it.

 

The difference between Allen and Watson yesterday wasn’t that Watson’s best plays were better than Josh’s best plays.  It’s that when Watson struggled he threw the ball away or went down with the ball securely in his possession.  When Allen struggled, all hell broke loose.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Billl

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

I have addressed the points.  The fact that he made several completely boneheaded plays is only the second most concerning thing about him.  The fact that he got away with almost all of them and still only managed 19 points is far more damning.  People want to pretend he’s some gunslinger, but he’s not.  Gunslingers make the other team pay when they fail to capitalize on mistakes.  The Texans missed several opportunities to intercept passes, recover fumbles, punch it in after being handed a short field, etc., and they never did.  They gave Josh chance after chance after chance to make Houston pay, and he couldn’t do it.

 

The difference between Allen and Watson yesterday wasn’t that Watson’s best plays were better than Josh’s bet plays.  It’s that when Watson struggled he threw the ball away or went down with the ball securely in his possession.  When Allen struggled, all hell broke loose.

That last paragraph is worth responding to because it’s an accurate description of the difference between the two guys yesterday.

 

No doubt that he’s got to handle himself better when the ? hits the fan. I’d like to think that another year of experience and a group of pass catchers in which he’s got more trust will help a lot, but we’ll see.

 

[zow2]

Allen played the last quarter and a half of the game like he was back in Time at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Running backwards when pressured on critical 3rd and 4th downs, horrible sacks, lateral when game still has plenty of time left...wasting downs by throwing uncatchable passes beyond the end zone or way out of bounds...getting away with throwing back across the field, dropped pick six and lucky on a fumble. All that being said he was a main reason why the Bills were in position to win. Some jaw dropping good plays and some equally jaw dropping horrendous decisions. My young son even mentioned, Josh throws well to guys standing still. Why can’t he complete passes to guys who are running!?

[Buddy Hix]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matt Ryan. Matt Stafford. Cam Newton. 

 

Just off the top of my head. 

Ryan had a second year slump, his first year was similar to his third year.

Stafford was injured his second year and only had 13 starts before his breakout season.

Newton was pretty much the same guy in all three of his years, ratings are all within 4 points of each other.

 

I'll save you time, the only answer is Drew Brees. That's how rare it is to improve after two seasons of starting as a QB. I like Allen but he isn't going to be a superstar, imo. I think the ceiling is being slightly above average, essentially a game manager. 

[CodeMonkey]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

Allen played the last quarter and a half of the game like he was back in Time at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  Running backwards when pressured on critical 3rd and 4th downs, horrible sacks, lateral when game still has plenty of time left...wasting downs by throwing uncatchable passes beyond the end zone or way out of bounds...getting away with throwing back across the field, dropped pick six and lucky on a fumble. All that being said he was a main reason why the Bills were in position to win. Some jaw dropping good plays and some equally jaw dropping horrendous decisions. My young son even mentioned, Josh throws well to guys standing still. Why can’t he complete passes to guys who are running!?

I think that's more of an art than a science.  How far to lead. where to put the ball on the Z axis when it gets there based on where defenders are in the area and so on.  It is exponentially more difficult.  Any QB who makes it into the NFL can hit players that are standing still.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Ryan had a second year slump, his first year was similar to his third year.

Stafford was injured his second year and only had 13 starts before his breakout season.

Newton was pretty much the same guy in all three of his years, ratings are all within 4 points of each other.

 

I'll save you time, the only answer is Drew Brees. That's how rare it is to improve after two seasons of starting as a QB. I like Allen but he isn't going to be a superstar, imo. I think the ceiling is being slightly above average, essentially a game manager. 

 

But they all got better in year 3. Right? 

[kbarrettb]

They only thing anyone needs to know is this. If Josh Allen were Watson yesterday and Watson were Allen yesterday the Bills would have won that game by 20 points easily. And the Bills would be going to the next round. That being said Josh isn’t as good as Watson and he needs a lot of work to do. Needs to be smarter and needs to not throw at a negative 55% completion rating. It’s just

plain awful anyway you slice it. Him

running backwards was idiotic. Him trying to lateral was dumb. He can get better and he must get better or this will be the same

result. 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, kbarrettb said:

They only thing anyone needs to know is this. If Josh Allen were Watson yesterday and Watson were Allen yesterday the Bills would have won that game by 20 points easily. And the Bills would be going to the next round. That being said Josh isn’t as good as Watson and he needs a lot of work to do. Needs to be smarter and needs to not throw at a negative 55% completion rating. It’s just

plain awful anyway you slice it. Him

running backwards was idiotic. Him trying to lateral was dumb. He can get better and he must get better or this will be the same

result. 

Thanks for being the judge of what we need to know. Also you’re nuts.

[kbarrettb]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Thanks for being the judge of what we need to know. Also you’re nuts.

Yea he was really good yesterday. Fan isn’t short for fanatic at all ?

[oldmanfan]

30 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

Ryan had a second year slump, his first year was similar to his third year.

Stafford was injured his second year and only had 13 starts before his breakout season.

Newton was pretty much the same guy in all three of his years, ratings are all within 4 points of each other.

 

I'll save you time, the only answer is Drew Brees. That's how rare it is to improve after two seasons of starting as a QB. I like Allen but he isn't going to be a superstar, imo. I think the ceiling is being slightly above average, essentially a game manager. 

I would say Watson was better this year than two years ago.  And several others have already been listed.  So you’re wrong.

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, kbarrettb said:

Yea he was really good yesterday. Fan isn’t short for fanatic at all ?

 
Oh good, another person that needs to put words in someone’s mouth in order to discuss Allen.

 

It’s an epidemic around here

[kbarrettb]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 
Oh good, another person that needs to put words in someone’s mouth in order to discuss Allen.

 

It’s an epidemic around here

Oh look calling someone nuts. It’s an epidemic around here. Watson>>>>>>>>>>>..........

Allen

[Teddy KGB]

Just now, kbarrettb said:

Oh look calling someone nuts. It’s an epidemic around here. Watson>>>>>>>>>>>..........

Allen

post less.    It’s all one pile of ?

[Billl]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I would say Watson was better this year than two years ago.  And several others have already been listed.  So you’re wrong.

What a bizarre statement...  Nobody is saying that third year QBs aren’t better than rookie QBs.  The comparison is year 2 to year 3.  It’s extremely rare to see a third year QB make a huge jump.  The idea that he’s suddenly going to develop the ability to read defenses, hit receivers in stride on a consistent basis, hit the deep ball on a regular basis, etc. is not based in reality.  Add to that the fact that his athleticism is his biggest asset, and it becomes even more of a stretch.  He took some serious shots yesterday that he certainly still feels today.

[thebandit27]

Just now, kbarrettb said:

Oh look calling someone nuts. It’s an epidemic around here. Watson>>>>>>>>>>>..........

Allen

Not really on either account, but you do you man. Feel free to show me where I said he was really good. I’d say “I’ll wait”, but I’d be here for the rest of my life 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

What a bizarre statement...  Nobody is saying that third year QBs aren’t better than rookie QBs.  The comparison is year 2 to year 3.  It’s extremely rare to see a third year QB make a huge jump.  The idea that he’s suddenly going to develop the ability to read defenses, hit receivers in stride on a consistent basis, hit the deep ball on a regular basis, etc. is not based in reality.  Add to that the fact that his athleticism is his biggest asset, and it becomes even more of a stretch.  He took some serious shots yesterday that he certainly still feels today.

You’re wrong.  Because you want to see Allen fail for some bizarre reason.

[kbarrettb]

2 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

post less.    It’s all one pile of ?

Be better. 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:

You’re wrong.  Because you want to see Allen fail for some bizarre reason.

That’s a relief.  I thought I watched him blow a 16 point lead yesterday.  You going to Kansas City to watch him play for a spot in the AFCCG?

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Billl said:

That’s a relief.  I thought I watched him blow a 16 point lead yesterday.  You going to Kansas City to watch him play for a spot in the AFCCG?

So now Allen blew the lead too? 
 

I’m gonna take a break for a few days until Allen Derangement Syndrome wears off ?

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

That’s a relief.  I thought I watched him blow a 16 point lead yesterday.  You going to Kansas City to watch him play for a spot in the AFCCG?

QBs get better at reading defenses and such as they gain experience.  Quit being a clown.

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

So now Allen blew the lead too? 
 

I’m gonna take a break for a few days until Allen Derangement Syndrome wears off ?

They went over 20 minutes without scoring, and he fumbled the ball to Houston without being touched and gave them a short field.  Yeah, he blew the lead.  I mean I thought he did.  Fortunately, OMF confirmed that I was wrong and this didn’t happen.  I’ve got a lot to learn about football.  Can you believe I was silly enough to think the 19 points scored was the most all year against a playoff team?

[Sundancer]

Watson is the better QB now, but Allen is "my" QB and I wouldn't have it any other way.

[Brand J]

Brees was such an anomaly, to be a relatively ho-hum QB his first couple years and then to transform to All Pro then to HOF quality, he’s just an outlier. I will say Allen - as much as he needs to improve - could possibly take another great leap in year three, because no other 1st round QBs come into the league with a resume as lacking as his. The fact he’s a first round QB with elite athletic traits gives him a longer leash than say, a 3rd rounder with the same traits and limited collegiate production. As much as I hope to see him improve, the Bills should also have eyes on drafting another young gun for next season.

[Buddy Hix]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But they all got better in year 3. Right? 

No

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I would say Watson was better this year than two years ago.  And several others have already been listed.  So you’re wrong.

We were discussing improvements from year 2 to year 3...so you're wrong and also not great at comprehension. 

[78thealltimegreat]

Not really a good topic with that game so fresh in memories.. last year Watson was shutout by the colts at home in the playoffs and we don’t have a receiver right now that's in the same stadium with Hopkins...in two years I have no doubt Josh will be just as good if not better then Watson 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

No

We were discussing improvements from year 2 to year 3...so you're wrong and also not great at comprehension. 

You made up an artificial construct and provided no data at all to back up your conclusion.  So your opinion is no better or worse than mine.

[Jaywrizzo]

5 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

This board is filled with homers who don't watch anyone but the Bills play football.

Two weeks ago, 8 people went on record saying they wouldn't take Lamar Jackson over Josh Allen. 

 

Totally insane. 

Hahaha......And they'll tell you, they know about football.

[Buddy Hix]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You made up an artificial construct and provided no data at all to back up your conclusion.  So your opinion is no better or worse than mine.

We were discussing improvements of QBs from year 2 to year 3, as that is what we are all looking for in Allen. You chimed in that Watson showed improvements from year 1 to year 3, which is A) irrelevant to what we were talking about and B) not even true as his rating and QBR both declined.

 

As I stated, your comprehension skills are sorely lacking. But keep telling every poster that they are wrong, it suits you.

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Not really a good topic with that game so fresh in memories.. last year Watson was shutout by the colts at home in the playoffs and we don’t have a receiver right now that's in the same stadium with Hopkins...in two years I have no doubt Josh will be just as good if not better then Watson 

He managed to throw a TD pass in that shutout somehow.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Buddy Hix said:

We were discussing improvements of QBs from year 2 to year 3, as that is what we are all looking for in Allen. You chimed in that Watson showed improvements from year 1 to year 3, which is A) irrelevant to what we were talking about and B) not even true as his rating and QBR both declined.

 

As I stated, your comprehension skills are sorely lacking. But keep telling every poster that they are wrong, it suits you.

Show me data to prove your point then.  But you won’t.  So your opinion has no more or less value than anyone else.

[CardinalScotts]

do i get hopkins too?

then ill take Josh....we saw Watson and all his greatness for 4 quarters- he did finally make a play allowed to keep playing from the stripes

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

No

 

 

Yes they did. 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

He managed to throw a TD pass in that shutout somehow.

Garbage time when game was already decided 

[Buddy Hix]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Show me data to prove your point then.  But you won’t.  So your opinion has no more or less value than anyone else.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns

 

Not sure why I keep engaging with a guy who is incapable of discussing topics in an earnest fashion, but here we are.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, Buddy Hix said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns

 

Not sure why I keep engaging with a guy who is incapable of discussing topics in an earnest fashion, but here we are.

Looking at the graphs, the data discusses changes in the rankings; they do not from what I can tell assess whether or not they are positive or negative changes, nor did he provide any statistics to claim whether differences were real or not.  I review a ton of scientific manuscripts for publications, and when they get rejected it is mostly because of faulty study design or data analysis.  This study looks like it falls in that category.

 

You claimed the only guy to improve from his first or second year was Brees.  Just for the heck of it I picked a guy that some compare Allen to early in his career:  Favre.  And if you look at Favre second and third seasons he improved.  Others have mentioned guys like Stafford and others.  So to me you are way overstating your case.

 

I also question why you chose the construct of just year 2 to year 3.  Another good example of extending the time of analysis would be a guy you saw today: Cousins.  Took him quite a while and some failures to finally win s big game.  Sometimes you have to experience the lows to get to the highs.  The random nature of the data showed in the study you cite after year 3 also suggests that.

 

None of us know what Allen will or will not become.  But if you’re trying to suggest that the Bills should move on from Allen now because he can’t get better next year or after, your data just doesn’t show that.

[Buddy Hix]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes they did. 

I think the point we were discussing was Allen's ability to take another leap from year 2 to year 3, correct? Show me the leaps your talking about in the data below. Ryan (top) was pretty much the same QB all three seasons. Did Ryan have marginal improvements from year 2 to 3, sure. Are we looking for Allen to marginally improve his 45 QBR? No, I think Allen needs significant improvement next year. Allen is below average in virtually every passing metric for QBs.

 

Newton (bottom) is similar to Ryan, showing 2 to 5% improvements in both ratings year over year over year. Again, not what we were talking about.

 

Stafford did show a great improvement from year 2 to 3 but I would attribute that to his injury in year two where he missed 13 games, lol. This falls more inline with the thinking that a QBs significant improvement zone is between years 1 and 2. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns

 

We are all hoping for a big leap from Allen next year, but don't pretend it's a common occurrence.

 

 

 

 

 

[McBean]

Watson 7 days a week twice on Sunday 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

I think the point we were discussing was Allen's ability to take another leap from year 2 to year 3, correct? Show me the leaps your talking about in the data below. Ryan (top) was pretty much the same QB all three seasons. Did Ryan have marginal improvements from year 2 to 3, sure. Are we looking for Allen to marginally improve his 45 QBR? No, I think Allen needs significant improvement next year. Allen is below average in virtually every passing metric for QBs.

 

Newton (bottom) is similar to Ryan, showing 2 to 5% improvements in both ratings year over year over year. Again, not what we were talking about.

 

Stafford did show a great improvement from year 2 to 3 but I would attribute that to his injury in year two where he missed 13 games, lol. This falls more inline with the thinking that a QBs significant improvement zone is between years 1 and 2. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2012/quarterback-development-patterns

 

We are all hoping for a big leap from Allen next year, but don't pretend it's a common occurrence.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I take your point to an extent on Cam. I disagree totally on Ryan. His third year was a leap. Up in completion %, up in yards, up in touchdowns (and significantly so) and down in INTs. 

 

Ryan and Stafford are absolutely examples of guys who took year 3 leaps (whatever you want to attribute Stafford's too). I will remove Cam from my list. In my head his first year was not as good passing wise as the numbers indicate. Memory fails us all occasionally.