Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) Pro Football Reference Game Play Finder This isn't a discussion about the obvious: What about the other downs and distances? Obviously given Allen's overall QB rating and completion percentage he is below average on the other downs and distances if he is one of the best on 3rd and 10+. We know what Allen's weaknesses are. This is just one stat I'm highlighting to show one of his strengths. You can sort through the linked table however you wish. The gist of it is this: -Allen is converting for first downs on 3rd and 10+ at a rate of 33%. -Allen has a Qb Rating of 110 on 3rd and 10+ -I calculated a league average of 24% factoring only starters or back ups who have played a majority of their teams games. -Sample size too small? Not sure. But Allen could throw his next 4 attempts for in-completions or short of the sticks and he would still be at 30% conversion rate and still leading the league in that category as one of only three QB's above 30% conversion rate. That makes me think the sample size is probably large enough for this season. His overall completion percentage is right on track with his whole season percentage but the rating is significantly better. Is that luck? Prevent? Either way, he's taking advantage of what the defense is giving him and making the right decisions and throws far more often than league average. -Only three QBs have a conversion rate of 30% or higher this year. Fitz, Dak and Allen. Fitz leads the league at 34% but has a 51 QB rating. Mahomes lead the league last year at 41% and Luck was second at 37%. -Only two QB's, Mahomes and Prescott, have higher QB ratings than Allen's 110.8 on 3rd and 10+. We can make it 3 if we include Stafford with his 29 attempts 117 rating. -MVP Lamar Jackson has a league low 24 such attempts (throwing out the back ups and injured starters) which probably isn't surprising considering their great run game. He's only put up a 76 QB rating on his league low 24 attempts. For a lot of us, Allen passes the eye test and I think some of that has to do with how he excel's on 3rd and 10+. It's been a long time since we've seen a QB that can convert a lot of these attempts AND still be efficient. Fitz was never afraid to let it rip on 3rd down but just like this season he didn't always make the best decisions or throws. Edited December 27, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Interesting. My thought is that better offenses and QB's probably have smaller sample sizes because they aren't in 3rd and 10+ situations as often. But it's nice to have a QB who doesn't check down to the RB in 3rd and long situations. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, MJS said: Interesting. My thought is that better offenses and QB's probably have smaller sample sizes because they aren't in 3rd and 10+ situations as often. But it's nice to have a QB who doesn't check down to the RB in 3rd and long situations. Wouldn't result in many conversions. But yeah, it would be better to not be known as the best QB at converting 3rd and very longs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: But yeah, it would be better to not be known as the best QB at converting 3rd and very longs... Nothing wrong with being the best actually. It's the attempts you have to watch out for. Best conversion rate and best rating while middle of the pack in attempts would be great. Edited December 27, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Wouldn't result in many conversions. But yeah, it would be better to not be known as the best QB at converting 3rd and very longs... What we had through the drought was QB's who check it down for 3 yards on 3rd and long, or Fitz who threw INT's on 3rd and long. Good to not be in that boat anymore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 27, 2019 Author Share Posted December 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, MJS said: Interesting. My thought is that better offenses and QB's probably have smaller sample sizes because they aren't in 3rd and 10+ situations as often. Certainly a factor. Checking out the top 4 scoring offenses from last year KC, NE, LARams and NO; Mahomes, Goff and Brees were around middle of the pack 13-18 in attempts and Brady was down in the bottom 3rd of the league at 23. This year, NE offense not nearly as good and Brady has the 3rd most attempts this season at 48. I think it also has a lot to do with style of play too for each individual team. This years top two scoring teams Baltimore and San Francisco have QBs that basically rank dead last in attempts when you weed out the non starters/injured starters. So that is a big difference from the year prior where the top offenses had guys ranked around the middle in 3rd and 10+ attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 He is absolutely elite at this. If you remove the last few games from the sample, the percentage will be even higher, and I think more indicative of his numbers compared to the rest of the league. Super-clutch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 13 minutes ago, ToGoGo said: He is absolutely elite at this. If you remove the last few games from the sample, the percentage will be even higher, and I think more indicative of his numbers compared to the rest of the league. Super-clutch. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said: lol You are possibly the lowest information poster on this board, and that is saying something. Through hundreds of posts I've seen you litter this board with, I have never seen you have the courage to put your true opinions and beliefs about the Bills on the line. Rather, you choose to belittle other posts and snip at minor inaccuracies that miss the greater picture. I have a background in data science. So please, I ask of you, expand on your "lol" and we can have a true conversation. I want to see what the real "Mr WEO" is all about. Do you even have a connection to the Buffalo area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Just now, ToGoGo said: You are possibly the lowest information poster on this board, and that is saying something. Through hundreds of posts I've seen you litter this board with, I have never seen you have the courage to put your true opinions and beliefs about the Bills on the line. Rather, you choose to belittle other posts and snip at minor inaccuracies that miss the greater picture. I have a background in data science. So please, I ask of you, expand on your "lol" and we can have a true conversation. I want to see what the real "Mr WEO" is all about. Do you even have a connection to the Buffalo area? Well, as you pointed out so scientifically above, the good news is that if I remove the past few lowest information posts from my sample, my overall information percentage will be higher.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToGoGo Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Well, as you pointed out so scientifically above, the good news is that if I remove the past few lowest information posts from my sample, my overall information percentage will be higher.... Again. Avoid any form of discussion. I see right through you. I hope the other members of this board do too. You are on my ignore list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, ToGoGo said: Again. Avoid any form of discussion. I see right through you. I hope the other members of this board do too. You are on my ignore list. Oh relax! You just posted that, by removing values from a sample that lower the average%, the average % will go up. Yeah, a lot of us understood that concept without a background in data science. What discussion were you hoping for? I did a year of my training in Buffalo before returning to Rochester, where I have lived for 35 years. I've never understood the concept of the "ignore list". It's bizarre---like you can't even be exposed to a certain posters post? The mere sight of them will trigger something g inside you that is very uncomfortable. Man, I would never ignore anybody----I would miss too many germs like the above! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZBILLS Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I wish he wasn't the best. Wish we never saw 3rd and longs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 (edited) This is going well...... Hey guys! We’re in the PLAYOFFS! Let’s enjoy the moment! . Edited December 27, 2019 by Augie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SinceThe70s Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said: Wouldn't result in many conversions. But yeah, it would be better to not be known as the best QB at converting 3rd and very longs... Not sure what the stats and sample sizes say, but one of the most frustrating things to me about that QB for the Pats has been his ability to convert 3rd and long. Rodgers is another one. I don't think having confidence in a QB's ability to convert 3rd and long is a bad thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DuckyBoys Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I think its a great stat as far as Josh Allen goes. Means he's gunning for the sticks instead of taking the checkdown completion Hopefully next year he'll have less attempts at 3rd and 10+ because we'll be better at staying ahead of the schedule for a 1st down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I think this stat furthers my objection to not trusting our passing offense on favorable down and distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78thealltimegreat Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Think it also has to factor that Josh has played 5 top 11 defenses in succession and this Sunday he gets another one in the Jets...how ironic the worst defense he’ll see by far in quite awhile he gets as next weeks opponent in Houston...though they are 11th in offense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Darragh Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 To get a fair comparison you need to have Daboll calling plays on first and second downs for all 32 teams. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 9 hours ago, DuckyBoys said: I think its a great stat as far as Josh Allen goes. Means he's gunning for the sticks instead of taking the checkdown completion Hopefully next year he'll have less attempts at 3rd and 10+ because we'll be better at staying ahead of the schedule for a 1st down THIS!!!! Singletary into the A gap for a yard on first down. Singletary loses two on second down. We still have a shot. First time since Bledsoe I legitimately believed this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tesla03 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 maybe if our OC had better playcalling we wouldn't always end up in 3rd and long situations 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 What’s funny is. When the announcers make note of 3rd down accomplishments it seems to not be that way. funny those optics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 16 hours ago, MJS said: Interesting. My thought is that better offenses and QB's probably have smaller sample sizes because they aren't in 3rd and 10+ situations as often. But it's nice to have a QB who doesn't check down to the RB in 3rd and long situations. Maybe? The thing is, because we just never do it, there have been times in recent games when they are giving Motor such a cushion and so little attention that he could probably run like Forest Gump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott7975 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Maybe? The thing is, because we just never do it, there have been times in recent games when they are giving Motor such a cushion and so little attention that he could probably run like Forest Gump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Run Josh Forest Allen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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