5th Year Option Pick Ups

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

Article in todays Athletic about projections of teams who will, won't, or may pick up players 5th year options. There projections were of the 32teams, 18 would be picked up, 9 would not and 5 were maybe's.   BTW in case you were wondering White was a definite yes.  One other yes that might surprise was Tribitsky (sp)  What it actually ends up being will see, but likely won't change by a huge amount either up or down

 

What kind of stood out to me was 18 of 32 were a yes, slightly over 50%.  So for everyone out there who love to knock the Bills draft picks because they didn't pick the person they wanted or whom else they could have picked regardless of the round chosen, i.e. Zay Jones, overall the success rate for all teams isn't very great.  I'm sure for QB's the rate is even lower.  So tells me even with all the information available to all teams, it's really more luck than skill WRT who is selected.

[jrober38]

White is a no brainer. 

 

We didn't pick up Shaq Lawson, and at this point I think we really need to bring him back next year. 

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Article in todays Athletic about projections of teams who will, won't, or may pick up players 5th year options. There projections were of the 32teams, 18 would be picked up, 9 would not and 5 were maybe's.   BTW in case you were wondering White was a definite yes.  One other yes that might surprise was Tribitsky (sp)  What it actually ends up being will see, but likely won't change by a huge amount either up or down

 

What kind of stood out to me was 18 of 32 were a yes, slightly over 50%.  So for everyone out there who love to knock the Bills draft picks because they didn't pick the person they wanted or whom else they could have picked regardless of the round chosen, i.e. Zay Jones, overall the success rate for all teams isn't very great.  I'm sure for QB's the rate is even lower.  So tells me even with all the information available to all teams, it's really more luck than skill WRT who is selected.

Which is why it's usually a bad idea to trade up.

[Ya Digg?]

I heard someone talking about this on the radio recently in regards to quarterbacks.  I don't have the exact numbers, but they were saying it is VERY rare that a quarterback's 5th year option doesn't get picked up.  You have to be really bad (EJ, Johnny football) or have a terrible injury (Bridgewater) for it not to be picked up.  I was surprised by that, but after thinking about it, it does make sense - You're going to give your qb every chance to succeed

[Mango]

Just now, Pay_Poyer said:

I heard someone talking about this on the radio recently in regards to quarterbacks.  I don't have the exact numbers, but they were saying it is VERY rare that a quarterback's 5th year option doesn't get picked up.  You have to be really bad (EJ, Johnny football) or have a terrible injury (Bridgewater) for it not to be picked up.  I was surprised by that, but after thinking about it, it does make sense - You're going to give your qb every chance to succeed

The 5th year option isn’t that old and only applies to first rounders. There have been quite a few. I mean I guess you’re right, teams afraid of carrier ending injury and bad QB’s don’t pick it up. 7/14 were picked up. So half. 

 

Option not given to:

Brandon Weeden

Blaine Gabbert

Christian Ponder 

Jake Locker

EJ Manuel (only first round pick) 

Johnny Maziel

Teddy Bridgewater 

 

 

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

32 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

White is a no brainer. 

 

We didn't pick up Shaq Lawson, and at this point I think we really need to bring him back next year. 

Yes, but does he want to come back to a team that snubbed him.  He knows he'll have other options.

[Bobby Hooks]

3 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Yes, but does he want to come back to a team that snubbed him.  He knows he'll have other options.

It wasn't a snub, it was a get your act together or get out. 

 

Many times people respect and feel closer to people that demand more from them. 

[White Linen]

47 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Yes, but does he want to come back to a team that snubbed him.  He knows he'll have other options.

 

How could it be a snub when he wouldn't even get the 5th year option money from any of his options in free agency?

[Malazan]

53 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Yes, but does he want to come back to a team that snubbed him.  He knows he'll have other options.

 

A non-factor. He's going where he can get the most money. Bills or otherwise. If anything, he should be thankful to the Bills because now he gets a payday a year earlier and it may have been a wake up call that his career was headed to washing out.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 hour ago, Pay_Poyer said:

I heard someone talking about this on the radio recently in regards to quarterbacks.  I don't have the exact numbers, but they were saying it is VERY rare that a quarterback's 5th year option doesn't get picked up.  You have to be really bad (EJ, Johnny football) or have a terrible injury (Bridgewater) for it not to be picked up.  I was surprised by that, but after thinking about it, it does make sense - You're going to give your qb every chance to succeed

 

 

.....$20.92 million each for Mariota and Winston......

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

White is a no brainer. 

 

We didn't pick up Shaq Lawson, and at this point I think we really need to bring him back next year. 

It's tricky because you don't know if the motivation will be gone once he gets his contract for a player like Lawson.  I'd like to see the Bills let Shaq and Murphy go and upgrade by signing a top FA DE as there will be some to target this offseason.  We need more consistent pressure from that spot.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Article in todays Athletic about projections of teams who will, won't, or may pick up players 5th year options. There projections were of the 32teams, 18 would be picked up, 9 would not and 5 were maybe's.   BTW in case you were wondering White was a definite yes.  One other yes that might surprise was Tribitsky (sp)  What it actually ends up being will see, but likely won't change by a huge amount either up or down

 

What kind of stood out to me was 18 of 32 were a yes, slightly over 50%.  So for everyone out there who love to knock the Bills draft picks because they didn't pick the person they wanted or whom else they could have picked regardless of the round chosen, i.e. Zay Jones, overall the success rate for all teams isn't very great.  I'm sure for QB's the rate is even lower.  So tells me even with all the information available to all teams, it's really more luck than skill WRT who is selected.

 

 

No it's more skill than luck.    The majority of the best players in the league come from the early rounds.    That list doesn't narrow itself down to 100.........talent evaluators do.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

No it's more skill than luck.    The majority of the best players in the league come from the early rounds.    That list doesn't narrow itself down to 100.........talent evaluators do.

 

Certainly is skill and huge amounts of knowledge involved.  But even with all that in the end almost 50% were mistakes.  Once the evaluations are complete, if you gave me a list of the top 30 players and asked me if I should pick them or not.  I could decide on the flip of a coin and have about he same success rate as they have once it's narrowed down to that point.  That tells me the final decision on  picking the player or not is not all that scientific .

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It's tricky because you don't know if the motivation will be gone once he gets his contract for a player like Lawson.  I'd like to see the Bills let Shaq and Murphy go and upgrade by signing a top FA DE as there will be some to target this offseason.  We need more consistent pressure from that spot.

 

...could see letting Murphy go...he was a stop gap crap shoot for McBeane during cap constraints........if I remember correctly, Shaq's 5th year was $10 mil...based on YTD 2019 production, what type of deal would you offer him?..............

[Pokebball]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Which is why it's usually a bad idea to trade up.

I'd like to see 5th yr options by round picked.  I bet it's quite a bit higher for first rounders.

 

So maybe it's a good idea to trade up?

[jletha]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

I'd like to see 5th yr options by round picked.  I bet it's quite a bit higher for first rounders.

 

So maybe it's a good idea to trade up?

 5th round option only applies for first rounders. Later round picks just need a new contract.

Edited December 13, 2019 by jletha

[cage]

36 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It's tricky because you don't know if the motivation will be gone once he gets his contract for a player like Lawson.  I'd like to see the Bills let Shaq and Murphy go and upgrade by signing a top FA DE as there will be some to target this offseason.  We need more consistent pressure from that spot.

 

I guess that's where we have to believe in "the process".  He's still on the team in year 3, which wouldn't be the case if he had Dareus-itis

[Pokebball]

26 minutes ago, jletha said:

 5th round option only applies for first rounders. Later round picks just need a new contract.

Yeah, sorry, wasn't clear.  I'd like to see the retention by round, either by 5th year option or new contract  I guess my point being that I think the chances of an earlier round player being good and therefore retained or having a higher subsequent value, is greater the earlier a player is drafted.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Pokebball

[Rc2catch]

1 hour ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

A non-factor. He's going where he can get the most money. Bills or otherwise. If anything, he should be thankful to the Bills because now he gets a payday a year earlier and it may have been a wake up call that his career was headed to washing out.

This is spot on. 
By not picking up the option buffalo allowed him to increase his value by an insane amount. One year at the option was a nice price tag but free agency will be HUGE guaranteed money. 
He’s not getting 100 million or nothing but his arrow has trended up for 2 straight years and someone will gamble that he’s not done. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Certainly is skill and huge amounts of knowledge involved.  But even with all that in the end almost 50% were mistakes.  Once the evaluations are complete, if you gave me a list of the top 30 players and asked me if I should pick them or not.  I could decide on the flip of a coin and have about he same success rate as they have once it's narrowed down to that point.  That tells me the final decision on  picking the player or not is not all that scientific .

 

 

I think what you mean are nearly 50% were "disappointments" to the drafting team after 3 years.  That could be for a number of reasons including the team/system/coaching.   The average coaching staff only lasts about 4 years as well.    In general the draft is a pretty efficient way of distributing "talent".    Some of the busts are due to injury or lack of commitment by the player. Some play to their first round talents AFTER their option isn't picked up.   Like Eli Apple, for instance.   It always surprises us when 1st rounders don't pan out and become pro bowl players but if every draft yielded 32 more pro bowl players free agency would be a buyers market and teams would just be declining options on better players. 

Edited December 13, 2019 by BADOLBILZ