Why You Shouldn’t Feel Completely Dejected Over Josh Allen’s Poor Performance

[Mikey152]

20 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

 

I don't disagree...I was speaking more from an "on the surface" perspective

 

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mikey152

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Jusy because you have a strong arm and fast WRs doesn't mean deep balls need to be your bread and butter

 

First , our WRs for the most part don't have good tracking skills downfield . McKenzie always tracks over the wrong shoulder and Beasley doesn't have break away speed

 

That leaves Brown and Foster. Brown is great but he has turned into a intermediate route specialist, only goes deep a few times a games, that's why chemistry isn't perfect

 

And Foster has gas speed but isn't the most dependable rn. He literally needs perfect throws. He overruns underthrows and doesn't fight for them and also has some tracking problems

 

Bills need a legitimate 6'2 deep threat like a Eric moulds that can catch a ball that isn't right on the money

Pretty good assessment here, especially on Foster. That and suspect protection makes the timing tough on those deep shots. The Bills should practice running screens of all types tirelessly. They never seem to set them up well and don’t look like they know how to “sell” a screen to the D ; ie not tip them off that it’s coming. Seems like they could do that more effectively than hitting some lower % passes with precision in the face of a rush without physical ,athletic WRs that pretty much need a perfect ball. 

[GoBills808]

25 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I agree with just about all of this.

 

I would guess between last years season, off-season, and this season, Allen is getting a bunch of reps with go routes. I don't think it is a "he isn't practicing it so he isn't connecting on game day with it". I guarantee he is practicing it a ton, he still just blows at it. (Hopefully that isn't a forever issue). It just feels like this is being presented as a special Josh Allen issue. Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA, with the same amount of weekly prep.  He doesn't have a special circumstance other than sucking at it currently. 

 

And frankly, if he needs more than 4 weeks of TC and 14 weeks of the season (13+ bye) with his receivers to hit on more than like 8% of deep routes, than things will be tough sledding for all of us long term. Because in 3 years this WR corp will be much different again, and we can't wait nearly a season for it to come together. 

What are the numbers for Allen vs the rest of the league on these kinds of throws?

[Boatdrinks]

I’m sure they practice these, and probably hit them.. in practice.  In real game situations , it seems like something is always off with the timing or route or some other factor. The rush in his face is probably not replicated, and his WRs pretty much need a perfect ball. Until some variable changes, the6 should work on the other proven blitz beater; screens. Didn’t someone have a diagram/ tutorial on how to beat the cover zero with crossers or something ? Don’t remember which thread, but this has been an issue all season and is creeping up again as the playoffs approach and they play better defenses. 

[dakrider]

The big thing for Josh, and the Bills offense both is they cannot keep coming out looking like their not ready to play in the first quarter of games.  They need to come out more fired up and have more consistency to start games.   Josh also got a little complacent these last few weeks with his pass protection too, the coaches did not prep him very well for keeping track of his pass blocking in this game and he was  completely blind-sided on some of those.  The coaching staff should have known they would be blitzing and bringing a heavy rush.  

 

At the end of the Ravens game, it seemed like everyone was focused on that last play.  But the Bills lost the game in the first half when they couldn't take advantage of good field position a couple of times and had to settle for field goals.  Beating one of the best teams in the league is a huge obstacle and you can't expect to do it only playing for half a game and getting down and then try to come back.  And the last thing is the Bills offense started out this game very predictable as well.  Its like, oh we're the bills so we will run these plays regardless who we play.  

[Mango]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

What are the numbers for Allen vs the rest of the league on these kinds of throws?

 

36 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I’m sure they practice these, and probably hit them.. in practice.  In real game situations , it seems like something is always off with the timing or route or some other factor. The rush in his face is probably not replicated, and his WRs pretty much need a perfect ball. Until some variable changes, the6 should work on the other proven blitz beater; screens. Didn’t someone have a diagram/ tutorial on how to beat the cover zero with crossers or something ? Don’t remember which thread, but this has been an issue all season and is creeping up again as the playoffs approach and they play better defenses. 

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So are you saying that...

 

Good players at any position don't grow on trees?

That good prospects don't enter the league as finished products?

That some players need time to refine their game, and in some cases even to develop basic skills that are required of the position?

That a guy with relatively little experience at his position may take longer to develop than others?

That it's criminally stupid to focus only on what a young player does poorly and ignore what he does well and what he can learn to do well?

 

Asking for a friend.

 

 

?

 

 

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

 

Do you happen to have a source that's just completion percentage, and not DVOA, for those of us who are simple people who don't do DVOA?

 

Also, just wondering if it factors in what the WR corps the guy was throwing to was like.

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Football outsiders does it at the end of the year. But we know he is among the worst in the NFL this year at the long ball in general. He was the worst QB in the NFL in 2018 at the go route specifically.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-dvoa-routes-quarterbacks

So no actual numbers or stats for this year, I take it? Because when someone says: 'Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA' and their only proof being 'because it looks that way to me'...let's just say it's not surprising the worst opinions also happen to come from those least able to support them in any meaningful way.

[PolishDave]

3 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

 

That isn't how it works with deep balls dude.   Deep balls aren't all about timing.  Crossing routes, slants, back shoulder throws, even screens; they are about timing.   Deep throws are about accuracy, trajectory and ball speed.   Once the decision is made to throw to the guy on the go route, the quarterback tries to throw the ball to a spot where the receiver is going to be based on the speed of the receiver, the angle he is running at and how far away he is.   It is a split second mechanical (how hard do I throw this and at what angle) decision.   Allen is failing at it.   It's like shooting pool and choosing the wrong angle - you miss.   It doesn't require waiting for the perfect moment.  It requires accuracy - enough to make it catchable by your guy.    And accuracy requires lots and lots and lots of deliberate practice along with some natural physical talent.   

[ChasBB]

To OP: Great, level-headed look at this performance - and nice job of gathering some stats!  The bottom line is success breeds confidence.  If just one of those deep balls early in the game connects, it's a different ball game and one where Buffalo's offense gains confidence and one where the Raven's start to doubt themselves.  Every single play matters in this league.  Like you, I was very disappointed in the QB performance and the offensive performance, in general.  Allen and the offense MUST do better if they are to be taken seriously as a contender in the playoffs.  I hope they learn from it and can put that clunker of a performance behind them.  I'm still an Allen fan, but c'mon - it is time to take it up a notch!

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

That isn't how it works with deep balls dude.   Deep balls aren't all about timing.  Crossing routes, slants, back shoulder throws, even screens; they are about timing.   Deep throws are about accuracy, trajectory and ball speed.   Once the decision is made to throw to the guy on the go route, the quarterback tries to throw the ball to a spot where the receiver is going to be based on the speed of the receiver, the angle he is running at and how far away he is.   It is a split second mechanical (how hard do I throw this and at what angle) decision.   Allen is failing at it.   It's like shooting pool and choosing the wrong angle - you miss.   It doesn't require waiting for the perfect moment.  It requires accuracy - enough to make it catchable by your guy.    And accuracy requires lots and lots and lots of deliberate practice along with some natural physical talent.   

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

Getting rid of the ball consistently with the WR at the right distance is key. Not alot of 50 yard throws are right on the dime

 

A WR has to track and adjust speed and be in sync with a QB. Something our WRs don't due well

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

Have you looked at who he went to college with?

He was buried on the pecking order behind two of the SEC's best pass catchers his last two years. 

 

Then why draft him??  The guy caught 15 balls.....in an entire season!!  He was barely more useful than his teammate Octavius Cooley.

 

 

[K-9]

21 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

Getting rid of the ball consistently with the WR at the right distance is key. Not alot of 50 yard throws are right on the dime

 

A WR has to track and adjust speed and be in sync with a QB. Something our WRs don't due well

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

If there is one thing I’ve noticed about Allens’s attempts on go routes, especially vs. blitzes like we saw Sunday, is that they are rushed. Allen seldom has or takes the time to set properly and make a smooth delivery. Virtually every time. Maybe Daboll should scheme some mass protections to give him that extra second to set up. Our wideouts have done a decent job of beating press coverage and that extra time just might help Allen gauge it a little better.

[PolishDave]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Deep balls are still about timing dude

 

Yea Allen's touch and trajectory is off but it's still 100% about timing.. 

 

 

You practice a 9 route to find timing and consistency downfield and his trajectory is off but so is his timing. It's not just chuck it up accurately

 

Most QBs are in sync in 5-7 step drops and distance markers with WRs for deep balls that create timing. QBs find a comfort zone 20-40 yards downfield where they have created timing. They don't just wait 45 yards downfield and Chuck it up

 

I don't think we aren't talking about the same thing.

    

When a QB is throwing a quick slant, he has a precise window of time where the receiver is going to be open.   The quarterback must deliver the ball within that window.  The receiver must expect the ball within that window.   That is timing.   If either one screws it up - the play goes incomplete or worse.   That's generally what people are talking about when they are talking about timing in regards to passing routes.

 

When a QB throws to a flanker who is one on one and running predominantly towards the endzone - the quarterback might make that decision pre-snap based on coverages and tendencies of that team; the quarterback might make that decision 3 seconds into his read progressions or the quarterback might make that decision after being flushed out of the pocket and running in the backfield for 5 seconds.   The quarterback generally is not throwing that pass to a predetermined spot on the field within a predetermined small time window - and the receiver doesn't know if he is getting the ball or not most of the time.

 

At the point the decision is made to throw the long ball, the quarterback is not waiting or trying to time anything.   The dude is trying to throw it accurately in a way that it is catchable.   That has zero to do with timing.   It is all about accuracy and touch.   He is trying to throw into a window where the timing has to be perfect for the receiver to be open and the receiver doesn't know at what time the QB is going to throw it.

 

The decision to throw to him is made because the receiver is already open (and will be indefinitely because he beat his guy) or because the QB wants to give his guy a chance to make a contested play when he is one on one.  There is no timing there.

 

You occasionally see a QB throw a deep ball to a spot on the field where he is hoping his receiver might be without checking first, but when he does that it is because he is getting rid of the ball hoping to avoid a sack.   Even then it isn't because he expected a player to be at a specific spot 50 yards downfield at a specific time.   It is just a poor decision.

 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

?

 

 

 

Do you happen to have a source that's just completion percentage, and not DVOA, for those of us who are simple people who don't do DVOA?

 

Also, just wondering if it factors in what the WR corps the guy was throwing to was like.

 

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So no actual numbers or stats for this year, I take it? Because when someone says: 'Other young and veteran QB's are hitting these passes at a much higher rate then JA' and their only proof being 'because it looks that way to me'...let's just say it's not surprising the worst opinions also happen to come from those least able to support them in any meaningful way.

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public. 
 

Josh Allen is the worse ranked starter in the NFL at deep passes. The trend is continuing from year 1 to year 2.  Now @GoBills808 , if you’d like to actually add to the conversation rather than being pedantic and combative, that would be great. 
 

To my original point, Josh Allen isn’t in some special circumstance where he can’t develop rhythm with his WR’s after 4 weeks of camp and 14  weeks in season (+ the bye). He gets just as much practice as everybody else. 
 

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, PolishDave said:

 

I don't think we aren't talking about the same thing.

    

When a QB is throwing a quick slant, he has a precise window of time where the receiver is going to be open.   The quarterback must deliver the ball within that window.  The receiver must expect the ball within that window.   That is timing.   If either one screws it up - the play goes incomplete or worse.   That's generally what people are talking about when they are talking about timing in regards to passing routes.

 

When a QB throws to a flanker who is one on one and running predominantly towards the endzone - the quarterback might make that decision pre-snap based on coverages and tendencies of that team; the quarterback might make that decision 3 seconds into his read progressions or the quarterback might make that decision after being flushed out of the pocket and running in the backfield for 5 seconds.   The quarterback generally is not throwing that pass to a predetermined spot on the field within a predetermined small time window - and the receiver doesn't know if he is getting the ball or not most of the time.

 

At the point the decision is made to throw the long ball, the quarterback is not waiting or trying to time anything.   The dude is trying to throw it accurately in a way that it is catchable.   That has zero to do with timing.   It is all about accuracy and touch.   He is trying to throw into a window where the timing has to be perfect for the receiver to be open and the receiver doesn't know at what time the QB is going to throw it.

 

The decision to throw to him is made because the receiver is already open (and will be indefinitely because he beat his guy) or because the QB wants to give his guy a chance to make a contested play when he is one on one.  There is no timing there.

 

You occasionally see a QB throw a deep ball to a spot on the field where he is hoping his receiver might be without checking first, but when he does that it is because he is getting rid of the ball hoping to avoid a sack.   Even then it isn't because he expected a player to be at a specific spot 50 yards downfield at a specific time.   It is just a poor decision.

 

The timing you are talking about is more in the Rhythm passing game, where a QB throws through a window expecting his WR to be there

 

There are all sorts of timing connections in the passing game. The timing on a West coast Rhythm throw is considerably different than the timing that goes into a 9 route or deep post 

 

Where you can THROW WRs open too , they don't need to be open when the ball leaves the hand of the QB... That's why timing comes into play

Edited December 11, 2019 by Buffalo716

[jrober38]

48 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Then why draft him??  The guy caught 15 balls.....in an entire season!!  He was barely more useful than his teammate Octavius Cooley.

 

 

 

Because he's got good size, runs well, and gets open (something he's done all season). 

 

Give Knox an offseason to refine his focus on catching the ball in traffic. I think he'll be really good next year. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

You practice your gameplan. So if the Bills only throw deep a few times a game they will only practice it a few times during the week

 

Obviously none of us have access to the Bills practice rep sheet.  Given that they knew Wink Martindale blitzes like crazy, including a bunch of Cover 0 that makes it hard to run, it would not surprise me that the Bills built in some extra reps around the deep throws that they dialed up early - and that Allen was hitting them regularly in practice.

 

Then you get to game time, and maybe he's got to take a couple extra steps to avoid the OL getting shoved back in his lap.  Maybe  he has to rush his throw a little because of the pressure.  Maybe he can't plant and follow through exactly as he wants.  The wind is gusting and swirling in a way it may not have done during the week.  Maybe the receiver doesn't get a clean release off the line, maybe the DB gets some hands on him as Cover1 suggested.  It becomes an estimate, and not a precision passing maneuver. 

 

I know none of this is news to you I'm just putting it out there.

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Allen needs an off-season to focus on his deep touch because it's clear all/most of his time went into becoming much better in the short , intermediate game

 

Yes, and he's made far more improvement there than I thought he would (or could) and has maintained it most of the time during games.  It wouldn't surprise me if that focus on altered mechanics for the intermediate throws, affected his deep throws.

 

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

QB and receiving is all about timing , unless the QB is off by 15 yards .. even when Allen is off by 4 yards that's hardly a terrible overthrow 40 yards downfield.. it's timing and if he threw it to the same spot but held the ball 1 second more, the receiver would be there

 

And he couldn't hold the ball one second more, because he would have been on his ass with a bunch of Ravens pecking and squawking.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public.

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

 

OK, I see their data, and it looks like a good site, but please excuse me for not getting it- where is the part that shows Allen has the worst completion % for deep passes?

 

I don't want to see their IQR which their glossary defines as  " Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc."  I don't find Special Sauce metrics have a good track record.  Maybe this one is different, maybe it's not.

 

I just want completion percentage.  The % they have there seem to be % of throws targetted to the L, Middle, and R

 

I'm not trying to be a tool here.  I actually tried copying and pasting their data set into Excel so I could calculate it myself, which works for NFL and pro-football-reference stuff, but the way their table is formatted it didn't behave nicely using my easy-peasy bag o' tricks.

 

If we're going to be talking about how Josh completes these passes at a much lower rate than anyone else, I just think there ought to be some data we can all look at.

 

Thanks for the link though.

 

[Bill_with_it]

What doesn't kill you makes you stonger. While it would have been nice had he carved up their defense like Brees carves up defenses, im truly thankful that he got to experience this. He will learn from it. Our playoff hopes werent riding on this and honestly I believe it will make the team stronger and hungrier.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Bill_with_it

[Buffalo716]

29 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Obviously none of us have access to the Bills practice rep sheet.  Given that they knew Wink Martindale blitzes like crazy, including a bunch of Cover 0 that makes it hard to run, it would not surprise me that the Bills built in some extra reps around the deep throws that they dialed up early - and that Allen was hitting them regularly in practice.

 

Then you get to game time, and maybe he's got to take a couple extra steps to avoid the OL getting shoved back in his lap.  Maybe  he has to rush his throw a little because of the pressure.  Maybe he can't plant and follow through exactly as he wants.  The wind is gusting and swirling in a way it may not have done during the week.  Maybe the receiver doesn't get a clean release off the line, maybe the DB gets some hands on him as Cover1 suggested.  It becomes an estimate, and not a precision passing maneuver. 

 

I know none of this is news to you I'm just putting it out there.

 

 

Yes, and he's made far more improvement there than I thought he would (or could) and has maintained it most of the time during games.  It wouldn't surprise me if that focus on altered mechanics for the intermediate throws, affected his deep throws.

 

 

And he couldn't hold the ball one second more, because he would have been on his ass with a bunch of Ravens pecking and squawking.

That's why he needs to work on his touch downfield more... A bit more touch and the recievers can have a tiny bit more time to adjust and get there

 

But when you put so much Time into the short and intermediate game as Allen has you are bound to not be as efficient in the area you didn't focus as much time.. ala the deep ball

[Boatdrinks]

26 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

What doesn't kill you makes you stonger. While it would have been nice had he carved up their defense like Brees carves up defenses, im truly thankful that he got to experience this. He will learn from it. Our playoff hopes werent riding on this and honestly I believe it will make the team stronger and hungrier.

Watching Brees in their game vs San Fran it’s incredible how much separation the WRs got in this game. While maybe not exactly the same issue with the Bills deep ball problem , it’s also noteworthy that these WRs go and get passes that are just in their general vicinity. I’ve yet to see a Bills WR or TE do this; in fact watching the Ravens game again it’s appalling how many times our WRs just stopped running routes when Josh was flushed out or under duress. Pretty awful effort all the way around. The Bills offense is playing with several empty chambers in the revolver. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

Watching Brees in their game vs San Fran it’s incredible how much separation the WRs got in this game. While maybe not exactly the same issue with the Bills deep ball problem , it’s also noteworthy that these WRs go and get passes that are just in their general vicinity. I’ve yet to see a Bills WR or TE do this; in fact watching the Ravens game again it’s appalling how many times our WRs just stopped running routes when Josh was flushed out or under duress. Pretty awful effort all the way around. The Bills offense is playing with several empty chambers in the revolver. 

 

TBH that's really necessary to be a good deep ball WR.  The WR has to be able to track the ball and adjust.

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Mango said:

 

NP @Hapless Bills FanIt’s seems most outlets aren’t producing the data set until it is complete. I found that SIS is keeping the data live and to the public. 
 

Josh Allen is the worse ranked starter in the NFL at deep passes. The trend is continuing from year 1 to year 2.  Now @GoBills808 , if you’d like to actually add to the conversation rather than being pedantic and combative, that would be great. 
 

To my original point, Josh Allen isn’t in some special circumstance where he can’t develop rhythm with his WR’s after 4 weeks of camp and 14  weeks in season (+ the bye). He gets just as much practice as everybody else. 
 

https://sisdatahub.com/leaderboards/QB

So more ‘deep pass’ completions than Lamar Jackson is what I’m seeing, correct?

[thebandit27]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH that's really necessary to be a good deep ball WR.  The WR has to be able to track the ball and adjust.

 

It's one of the reasons that KC is so darn dangerous; they have 3 of the best deep ball trackers in the game in Hill, Hardman, and Watkins--who,

for all his faults, is otherworldly in his ability to track down deep throws.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

That's why he needs to work on his touch downfield more... A bit more touch and the recievers can have a tiny bit more time to adjust and get there

 

But when you put so much Time into the short and intermediate game as Allen has you are bound to not be as efficient in the area you didn't focus as much time.. ala the deep ball

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

[Magox]

His deep pass without doubt has not been good at all this year.  But it's definitely fixable.   It's a matter of calibration and not being so paranoid of throwing the pick.  He just needs to try to put a little more air in it.

[Mango]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So more ‘deep pass’ completions than Lamar Jackson is what I’m seeing, correct?

 

No.

 

Lamar is 13/39

Josh is 13/51

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

23 hours ago, jrober38 said:

They usually don't get a whole lot better after their second season as a starter.

Historically speaking (going back 20 years), the biggest jump in a QBs play will come between their first and second season as a starter. 

There are a few outliers, but they are few and far between. 

 

Would you care to share this data and also explain the metric you're using?

Since you state it so authoritatively and repeatedly, you must either have a good numerical metric for this and a source for that metric, OR you must have compiled same yourself. 

 

One hopes.

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

No.

 

Lamar is 13/39

Josh is 13/51

 

 

 

Ah, OK, the same number of deep pass completions. 

Maybe Jackson just has better judgement (or better coaching/game plan) on when not to throw.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

 

You're correct and I don't think 716 will disagree with you, except for the caveat that last Sunday in New Era was probably not the right time and place for arcs.

 

What was not a given, to me, is the improvement in Allen's short and intermediate throws.  He sucked at them last year (and ran instead of taking shots he had).  I will take my crow: I was openly skeptical that he could improve on those as much as he has.  He plainly put in a huge amount of work on them and it shows.

 

That being the case, while perhaps not a "given", I don't think it's very surprising that his deep ball suffered, either because he simply didn't give it the reps it needed with the current WR/TE corps (only one of whom was here last year), or because a change in his intermediate throw mechanics that he's successfully beaten into muscle memory has altered what he does with the deep ball.  Or both.

[Mango]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Would you care to share this data and also explain the metric you're using?

Since you state it so authoritatively and repeatedly, you must either have a good numerical metric for this and a source for that metric, OR you must have compiled same yourself.

 

Ah, OK, the same number of deep pass completions. 

Maybe Jackson just has better judgement (or better coaching/game plan) on when not to throw.

 

 

I guess you would have to take a look at the tape and break it down as to whether or not the WR has a step. There were a number of opportunities against Baltimore where coverage was beat and we didn't make a play deep. 

I feel like we are going down the long ball rabbit hole of is Josh good or not. 

 

My original point was, this is the NFL, Josh Allen has just as much access to resources, coaching, reps, etc. as every other QB in the league. To somehow insinuate that after 4-5 months with his receivers, he is in some special position in the league that he can't hit an average rate is silly. He had the worst long ball accuracy in the league last year, and he is on pace to do it this year. 

[dakrider]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

It's one of the reasons that KC is so darn dangerous; they have 3 of the best deep ball trackers in the game in Hill, Hardman, and Watkins--who,

for all his faults, is otherworldly in his ability to track down deep throws.

The Denver Broncos receivers are making their rookie QB look all pro.  Getting open with good separation, making fantastic catches and beating their defenders, and running down the field after the catch.  Every week in the NFL I see great receiver play that is lacking in Buffalo. 

[Mango]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

OK, I see their data, and it looks like a good site, but please excuse me for not getting it- where is the part that shows Allen has the worst completion % for deep passes?

 

I don't want to see their IQR which their glossary defines as  " Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc."  I don't find Special Sauce metrics have a good track record.  Maybe this one is different, maybe it's not.

 

I just want completion percentage.  The % they have there seem to be % of throws targetted to the L, Middle, and R

 

I'm not trying to be a tool here.  I actually tried copying and pasting their data set into Excel so I could calculate it myself, which works for NFL and pro-football-reference stuff, but the way their table is formatted it didn't behave nicely using my easy-peasy bag o' tricks.

 

If we're going to be talking about how Josh completes these passes at a much lower rate than anyone else, I just think there ought to be some data we can all look at.

 

Thanks for the link though.

 

 

Slow work day...I put it in excel. Josh is better than Kyle Allen, Rudolph, Foles, and Daniel Jones. The only other who played this week was Kyle Allen. 

 

Name	COMP	ATT	Comp %
Kyle Allen	9	45	20.00
Mason Rudolph	8	34	23.53
Nick Foles	4	17	23.53
Daniel Jones	9	37	24.32
Josh Allen	13	53	24.53
Sam Darnold	10	38	26.32
Josh Rosen	4	15	26.67
Jared Goff	13	43	30.23
Aaron Rodgers	20	64	31.25
Lamar Jackson	13	39	33.33
Andy Dalton	10	30	33.33
Joe Flacco	7	21	33.33
Dwayne Haskins	6	18	33.33
Case Keenum	5	15	33.33
Derek Carr	11	32	34.38
Jacoby Brissett	10	29	34.48
Ryan Fitzpatrick	15	43	34.88
Mitchell Trubisky	15	42	35.71
Philip Rivers	23	64	35.94
Baker Mayfield	18	49	36.73
Ryan Tannehill	10	27	37.04
Jameis Winston	28	75	37.33
Carson Wentz	22	58	37.93
Drew Brees	8	21	38.10
Matt Ryan	19	47	40.43
Matthew Stafford	22	54	40.74
Deshaun Watson	25	60	41.67
Patrick Mahomes	23	54	42.59
Teddy Bridgewater	6	14	42.86
Tom Brady	24	55	43.64
Kyler Murray	21	48	43.75
Kirk Cousins	21	48	43.75
Russell Wilson	28	62	45.16
Eli Manning	5	11	45.45
Marcus Mariota	5	11	45.45
Dak Prescott	30	65	46.15
Gardner Minshew	19	39	48.72
Jimmy Garoppolo	16	27	59.26

[Mikey152]

I remember reading an article about Aaron Rodgers where they asked him about the "art" of the deep ball and why he was so good at it.  He said when he first came into the league, he was awful...mostly because he was trying to throw it as hard as he could, and in a game situation with his adrenaline pumping he would constantly overthrow it relative to his timing in practice.  Ultimately, he fixed this problem by focusing on repeating his mechanics, including how hard he threw it, every time.  Make it more of a calculated process than a wing and a prayer.  His placement is focused more on which shoulder, not how far, and he uses timing and mechanics to control distance and trajectory.

 

I think Josh has the same issue...the there is no rhythm.  He just kind of heaves it out there and it's usually too far...

 

I honestly think he just throws the ball too far for a normal 5 or 7 step drop.  He either needs to hitch, give it more air (mechanics) or take something off (tough due to adrenaline ina  game situation)...maybe all three

Edited December 11, 2019 by Mikey152

[jrober38]

2 hours ago, dakrider said:

The Denver Broncos receivers are making their rookie QB look all pro.  Getting open with good separation, making fantastic catches and beating their defenders, and running down the field after the catch.  Every week in the NFL I see great receiver play that is lacking in Buffalo. 

 

We had receivers get open on deep routes at least 5 times against the Ravens and Allen couldn't complete a single one of those opportunities presented to him. 

[tcampbell104]

16 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

We had receivers get open on deep routes at least 5 times against the Ravens and Allen couldn't complete a single one of those opportunities presented to him. 

man you really hate the guy

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, tcampbell104 said:

man you really hate the guy

 

I don't hate anyone.

 

I just don't understand why people go to such extreme lengths to blame everyone but the QB for why we can't complete passes thrown more than 30 yards down field. 

 

The three misses in the first quarter were all awful throws from a clean pocket. 

[Bing Bong]

I'm still dejected the Ravens are so much more a complete team than us. That said, we limit the mistakes, play Belicheck ball, then the margin appears to be close enough to win us that game.

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Good post except for the highlighted.

 

It wasn't a given that he wouldn't be able to throw a catchable deep ball this season just because he worked a lot on his short game.    It's been terrible.  A rather stunning development.

 

He definitely has to work on his touch..........he has been able to get some passes downfield on a rope that most can't throw and that has allowed him to make "a few" big plays that other QB's would have had to throw with touch.    But then there are plays like the last throw to Brown Sunday where most QB's lead the receiver with a softer throw with some arc to it and let him run under it where he is the only one who can get a hand on it.   That leads to a catch or a PI.   Putting it on a rope made for a very tight window throw but right now that's all he's got.    

It's not a given that it would be a lot worse but common sense days it wouldn't be as clean as the areas he busted his butt on

 

If you're a golfer and you practice  your irons for the majority for 6 months straight they will be impeccable.. but your driver game will take a hit

 

It's the same principal. People thought Allen couldn't hit the backside of a barn at close distances... Now he has 65% completion on throws from 10-20 yards downfield. He spent ALOT of time on them and it has paid off

 

He needs to do the same for the deep ball next off-season

[tcampbell104]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

I don't hate anyone.

 

I just don't understand why people go to such extreme lengths to blame everyone but the QB for why we can't complete passes thrown more than 30 yards down field. 

 

The three misses in the first quarter were all awful throws from a clean pocket. 

okay good enough