THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Cruisin'

[Shaw66]

The Bills cruised to 20-3 win over the Denver Broncos Sunday, moving to 8-3 and leaving their fans pinching themselves in disbelief. Eight and three?  The Buffalo Bills?

 

Fans around the country may still be discounting that record, or ignoring it altogether, claiming that the Bills have piled up wins against many of the worst teams in the league.  They may be correct, but there’s still something, a lot actually, to be said for piling up wins in the NFL.  There are only eight teams in the league with three or fewer losses, and the Bills are one of them.  At this point in the season, the Bills are in the position that all teams want to be.

 

The win over the Broncos was satisfying on many levels.   It was good, finally, to have a win where the Bills took control of the game early and followed good play with good play, winning without being the least bit threatened in the second half.  They didn’t dominate on the scoreboard in the first half, but they were in control of the game.  They’d gone on two 80+ yard drives for field goals – you’d rather have seven, but long, clock-eating drives ending in points are good.   Then they opened the second half with the rarest of Bills rarities – a begin-the-half touchdown drive, and the game was over.    The Bills were a good team taking care of business.

 

It was fun to be in the stadium to watch Frank Gore pass Barry Sanders to move into third place in career rushing yards.  It’s just good to be around greatness, even if we only have Gore on loan from the Hall of Fame.   He doesn’t belong to Bills fans in quite the same way as Cookie and OJ and Cribbs and Thurman and Fred and even Shady, but he’s ours for now, and we’ll take him.   If this is his last season, or his last in Buffalo, he still will be part of Bills history for what he accomplished on Sunday, and for how he modeled the perfect teammate as Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott build the culture they want.   

 

The Bills finally put up four quarters of stifling defense.  Total yards – 134.  Third down conversions – 2 for 11.  After the Bills opened the second half with a touchdown, the Broncos went on a ten-play drive to the Bills 22 – as close as they’d get to the red zone all day – and kicked a field goal, their only points of the day.  After that, the Bills held the Broncos to five consecutive three and outs to end the game.  Five.

 

Yes, it was only the Broncos, and they may turn out to be the worst team in 2019, but the Bills gave them nothing.  That’s what good teams do. 

 

I realized Sunday what makes the Bills’ pass defense so good: they play six defensive backs in their base defense.  Really.  Six.  Two of them, Edmunds and Milano, just happen to be built like linebackers.   Those two just keep making plays in the passing game, Milano particularly.  I’m surprised that teams actually keep throwing at him.   He defended three passes on Sunday, to go along with a fistful of tackles.  After Tre’Davious White, Alexander, Edmunds and Milano have defended more passes than any other Bill.

Plays, players and other things of note:

 

1.  I’ve been on the Josh Allen bandwagon since early in his rookie season, and he keeps progressing nicely.   Sunday, he played the way a good, young, growing QB should.  Statistically Denver has one of the best pass defenses in the league, and Allen beat them by putting up the same stats they’ve been allowing all season.  The Broncos have given up twice as many TDs passing as they’ve gotten TDs, and Allen went 2-1.  They’re giving up 207 yards per game, Allen got 185.  Opponents complete 65% of their passes against the Broncos, Allen completed 60%.   Allen didn’t slice and dice the Broncos like a star QB would; he just did what you’d like to see out of a second-year quarterback. 

 

By the way, when your rushing offense is pounding out 244 yards, you don’t need your QB to do more. (Except, of course, contribute to the 244.)

 

What did I like?  The Bills ran a lot of no huddle – not hurry up, just no huddle, which meant Allen was calling plays at the line of scrimmage.  He handled those duties calmly, completely in control.  He made only two really bad throws – the interception and a possible INT along the left sideline.  Apparently, he misread the defense on the interception; he didn’t see and didn’t expect the safety to be back there.  I suspect a receiver read it correctly and cut off his route.  I think Allen probably threw it to the spot where the receiver would have been if the Broncos had been in the defense Allen thought he saw.  The result was an amazingly ugly throw.   But Allen’s good throws way outweighed the mistakes.  He hung in the pocket nicely and found Beasley for the first touchdown, he read the defense and found Brown for the second, both beautiful throws.  He consistently hit crossing routes to all of his receivers.  He’s fearless in the pocket – on the Beasley TD he was a split second late in deciding to throw it, and he was hit just as the ball left his hand, but he didn’t get happy feet.  He stood his ground and made the throw. 

 

I like how the Bills are using Allen in the running game.  By giving him a few designed runs every game, the Bills force defenses to plan and prepare for his running.  He isn’t particularly productive on his designed runs – his big gains on Sunday came on scrambles, but the scrambles demonstrate that he’s a threat running, so defenses have to account for Allen as part of the run game. 

 

2.  Between them, Shaq Lawson and Ed Oliver had three tackles and three sacks.  All nice plays – Shaq’s came on third downs, and Ed’s pinned the Broncos on the goal line, which resulted in the Bills getting good field position that led Brown’s TD catch.  I would love to see those guys celebrate with their teammates, rather than their look-at-me post-sack dances.  Yes, you made the play, but often it was your teammates who put you in that position.

 

3.  It’s fun to watch White.  The Broncos targeted Courtland Sutton eight times, and he caught one for 27 yards.  White picked one and could have had two more.  Amari Cooper on Thursday.

 

4.  The Bills had an American flag that covered the entire field for the opening ceremonies.  100 yards long, 53 wide.  They had a couple hundred people around the flag to hold it up.  When it was unfurled, about 40 people had to run across the field holding the bottom side of the flag.  About half way across the field, one of the runners around the 30-yard line stumbled and fell and was covered immediately by the flag spreading across the field.  I assume he scrambled on all fours under the flag to the sideline and resumed his duties holding the flag.  One of life’s embarrassing moments that you hope no one saw.  Well, I saw it.     

 

5.  The fans hate McDermott’s conservative decision making, but the wisdom in his choices was rewarded Sunday.  At the end of the first half, he decided to run and let the clock run out instead of passing and using the timeout in his pocket.  But the Bills had looked kind of ragged on the drive, taking three penalties, and the Bills were getting the ball to start the second half.  Turned out to be a good move.  The Bills regrouped at half-time and came out cooking, getting the touchdown to make it 13-0 and, it turned out, to end the game.

 

Later in the second half, it appeared that McDermott would go for it on fourth and four from Denver 36.  It would have been a 54-yard field goal into the wind, so that wasn’t an option.  Instead of snapping the ball, the Bills did what they regularly do – try to draw the defense offside, then take the delay of game penalty and punt.  It’s a conservative, field-position approach, disliked by the fans but smart when the wind is affecting play and when your defense has been in control.  McDermott’s players rewarded him, with a nice punt to the 11. After the fair catch, Oliver got his sack, the Broncos went three and out, and two plays later Allen hit Brown for the touchdown. 

 

With a better team or a worse team, taking those chances makes more sense.  A better team can afford to take risks, a worse team has nothing to lose. 

 

6.  The Bills seem to be blitzing more than earlier in the season.   They don’t get consistent pressure rushing four and the threat of the blitz complicates things for the offense, like Allen’s running does to the opponent’s defense. 

 

7.  Not many Bronco fans in the stadium, and they didn’t make much noise.   Of course, when the team is playing like the Broncos are, it’s a serious fan who goes on the road to watch that show.

 

8.  For the second season in a row, Robert Foster seems to be emerging as a threat late in the season.  Awesome speed. It looked like he pulled up with a serious hamstring problem – not surprising for a thoroughbred who can run like that, and that’s unfortunate for him and for the Bills.   The door appears to be open again for Duke Williams to be a factor in the offense. 

 

The Cowboys are desperate for a win, and the Bills have an opportunity to make a statement on the national stage.  Are the Bills just another team, or are they among the best?  Can they beat a good team on the road?  We’ll see. 

 

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

[wvbillsfan]

Good read as always. 
 

Get well Robert Foster. Signed your number one fan

[Figster]

To me Shaw, it was the most well executed play in all 3 phases of game Buffalo has experienced so far this season in my humble opinion.

 

With the cold weather settling in, good time to get the motor running and hitting on all cylinders,

 

Next up, Jerry's Cowgirls on Thanksgiving!

 

Play fearless Buffalo!!

 

MERCY!!!

Edited November 25, 2019 by Figster

[GoBills808]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I realized Sunday what makes the Bills’ pass defense so good: they play six defensive backs in their base defense.  Really.  Six.  Two of them, Edmunds and Milano, just happen to be built like linebackers.   Those two just keep making plays in the passing game, Milano particularly.  I’m surprised that teams actually keep throwing at him.   He defended three passes on Sunday, to go along with a fistful of tackles.  After Tre’Davious White, Alexander, Edmunds and Milano have defended more passes than any other Bill.

Plays, players and other things of note:

There are particular things a McDermott defense relies on and you nailed one of the main ones; Kuechly and Davis were both able line-to-line pass defenders as well as all world LBs. Combine that w/a White (Norman previously) and it's almost impossible to throw against as we've seen. I get excited thinking about defensive development because McDermott never had the quality at safety as Poyer/Hyde in Carolina, esp against the run when you can bring them down to LOS and play man outside...the possibilities are pretty much endless if they can keep this group together and playing hard for the next few years.

 

Edmunds and Milano aren't quite the physical presence in the run game yet re: crashing gaps and stacking blockers, but their ability to defend against the underneath stuff is already there imo. As they get more experience they have the opportunity to be every bit the core you can build a 10 year defense around.

[RiotAct]

to your point #4 - the EXACT same thing happened at a home game last year... I think it was the Titans game early in the season?  haha

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Figster said:

To me Shaw, it was the most well executed play in all 3 phases of game Buffalo has experienced so far this season in my humble opinion.

 

With the cold weather settling in, good time to get the motor running and hitting on all cylinders,

 

Next up, Jerry's Cowgirls on Thanksgiving!

 

Play fearless Buffalo!!

 

MERCY!!!

Right.  I didn't mention special teams, except for Bojo's punt to the 11.  He punted pretty well all day. 

 

And it's pretty clear now why Andre Roberts is a league leading kick returner.   Some guys just have a knack for that job, and he has it.  He reads the oncoming tacklers really well and sees the openings.  

[whatdrought]

Good post! The excitement level is building. This is, historically speaking, when they would lay an egg and twist a knife into all of our hearts... This team feels different to me. We'll see. 

[Seasons1992]

It's all about D and the running game during cold-weather playoff games. Let's hope we go somwhere crappy/non-dome and just grind it out, provided we make it into the dance.

[ILBillsfan]

Have to see if that was a hamstring injury for foster on that sweep because if so then the Duke will be activated imo

[Franco_92]

10 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Good post! The excitement level is building. This is, historically speaking, when they would lay an egg and twist a knife into all of our hearts... This team feels different to me. We'll see. 

It kind of isn't where they lay the egg historically speaking, to be honest. When Billsy was being defined, it was because we'd take 5-2 and turn it into 7-9, or take something like 6-5 to something like 6-10.

Historically, the Bills aren't 8-3 often, and when they are, they get their 10/11 wins. 

[whatdrought]

1 minute ago, arcane said:

It kind of isn't where they lay the egg historically speaking, to be honest. When Billsy was being defined, it was because we'd take 5-2 and turn it into 7-9, or take something like 6-5 to something like 6-10.

Historically, the Bills aren't 8-3 often, and when they are, they get their 10/11 wins. 

 

I meant in regard to fan feelings and expectations. Whenever we feel good about a team, they implode or lose stupidly. 

 

But you're right... This is new territory for this generation (my generation) of bills fans. It's a great experience!

[BuffaninSarasota]

31 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

Have to see if that was a hamstring injury for foster on that sweep because if so then the Duke will be activated imo

 

it was absolutely a hamstring injury......has anyone heard an update from Sal ?

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

Have to see if that was a hamstring injury for foster on that sweep because if so then the Duke will be activated imo

There aren't a lot of injuries that can be diagnosed just by watching it happen, but hamstrings are one.   Of course, it's possible it's something else, and I hope it is, but that sprinting, then hopping on one foot and grabbing the thigh is the classic look.  

 

I remember the one time I did it, running, hopping and grabbing the thigh.   My first thought, besides the pain, was "oh, that's what those guys are feeling when you see that on TV."

 

I doubt it was a cramp, but maybe it was.  

[Tenhigh]

39 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

I meant in regard to fan feelings and expectations. Whenever we feel good about a team, they implode or lose stupidly. 

 

But you're right... This is new territory for this generation (my generation) of bills fans. It's a great experience!

Interesting, I thought you were referring to us playing terribly in nationally televised games.  

Edited November 25, 2019 by Tenhigh

[Seasons1992]

21 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

Interesting, I thought you were referring to us playing terribly in nationally televised games.  

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

It's all about D and the running game during cold-weather playoff games. Let's hope we go somwhere crappy/non-dome and just grind it out, provided we make it into the dance.

 

this team was meant to play in the cold

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Between them, Shaq Lawson and Ed Oliver had three tackles and three sacks.  All nice plays – Shaq’s came on third downs, and Ed’s pinned the Broncos on the goal line, which resulted in the Bills getting good field position that led Brown’s TD catch.

 

For me the game changing defensive play didn't show up on the stat sheet. Late in the 1st quarter the Broncos ran a naked bootleg and Shaq had a wide open path to Brandon Allen. Allen got off the pass and it even turned into an 18 yard completion. But Shaq put a massive hit on him as he threw the ball and he hit the ground awkwardly. That play set the tone for the rest of the game. I think Allen was really shaken up after that hit and the offense wasn't able to function after that. Nice work by Shaq to hit the QB hard without drawing a flag. It was worth giving up the 18 yards.

[freddyjj]

@Shaw66 Thanks for the typical succinct and accurate review of the game.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I realized Sunday what makes the Bills’ pass defense so good: they play six defensive backs in their base defense.  Really.  Six.  Two of them, Edmunds and Milano, just happen to be built like linebackers. 

Never heard it put this way but it does afford us an unusual amount of flexibility.  Truth be told, Bills have only 3 outside CBs (Tre, Levi and KJ) a slot CB (Taron) and 6 S  (Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Marlowe, Coleman, Neal) on roster.  

 

The position flexibility of Neal and Marlowe and the aforementioned coverage capabilities of Milano/Edmunds let Frazier game plan specifically with some nice chess pieces.  

 

A question for you @Shaw66.  What type of NFL player or college player do you see OBD looking for to replace Lorenzo if he hangs them up at year's end?  Do you see him losing a step out there?

Edited November 25, 2019 by freddyjj

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Seasons1992 said:

It's all about D and the running game during cold-weather playoff games. Let's hope we go somwhere crappy/non-dome and just grind it out, provided we make it into the dance.

On the road against the Patriots meets the criteria,

 

and tests the process... 

[toto8]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

What did I like?  The Bills ran a lot of no huddle – not hurry up, just no huddle, which meant Allen was calling plays at the line of scrimmage.  He handled those duties calmly, completely in control.  He made only two really bad throws – the interception and a possible INT along the left sideline.  Apparently, he misread the defense on the interception; he didn’t see and didn’t expect the safety to be back there.  I suspect a receiver read it correctly and cut off his route.  I think Allen probably threw it to the spot where the receiver would have been if the Broncos had been in the defense Allen thought he saw.  The result was an amazingly ugly throw.   But Allen’s good throws way outweighed the mistakes.  He hung in the pocket nicely and found Beasley for the first touchdown, he read the defense and found Brown for the second, both beautiful throws.  He consistently hit crossing routes to all of his receivers.  He’s fearless in the pocket – on the Beasley TD he was a split second late in deciding to throw it, and he was hit just as the ball left his hand, but he didn’t get happy feet.  He stood his ground and made the throw. 

 

First of all thank you for your reviews I have been a fan since the BBMM and I look for it every week.

 

Did you know that Browns TD catch was actually an adjustment due to smoke telling his coaches that Harris was constantly jumping the slants? He said that in an interview. He told coaches about it and they adjusted to make a double move on a go route that's why on that play Allen pumps the ball twice trying to make Harris move.

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, toto8 said:

 

First of all thank you for your reviews I have been a fan since the BBMM and I look for it every week.

 

Did you know that Browns TD catch was actually an adjustment due to smoke telling his coaches that Harris was constantly jumping the slants? He said that in an interview. He told coaches about it and they adjusted to make a double move on a go route that's why on that play Allen pumps the ball twice trying to make Harris move.

Thanks.   In his postgame presser, Allen said it's a play they practiced about 10 times this week.   It must be that Brown told the coaches that Harris was properly set up for it.  

 

When you watch Brown's route, it was really simple.   No huge fake involved or anything.   It's just that if you have his speed and you keep beating people on the slants and other crossing patterns, they have to honor the inside break.   Eventually, you just have to head inside one more time, plant a foot and turn on the jets.   Three steps out his break, it's was over.  

 

Those inside routes were the part of his game the Lee Evans never mastered.   If he had, he would have been unstoppable.  Brown has the talent and the guts to go over the middle, and it's what makes him so dangerous. 

[Seasons1992]

34 minutes ago, Figster said:

On the road against the Patriots meets the criteria,

 

and tests the process... 

 

I'm fine with that. 

Show up and be close. 

 

If they lose, so be it. 

But DON'T be Jacksonville and crap the next two seasons after somehow almost winning.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Must we always run on first down???  How about keeping defenses guessing?

[Shaw66]

48 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Must we always run on first down???  How about keeping defenses guessing?

Yeah, I really hate running on first down, especially when it results in having 244 rushing yards.   I hate that. 

 

Here's the way I look at the Bills.   McDermott does everything for a reason.  He knows his quarterback has limited experience, and quarterbacks with limited experience will make mistakes in the passing game, especially, if as McD has done with Allen, the QB has the whole play book to master.  Mistakes are bad.  McDermott hates them.  His philosophy is to strive to play mistake-free football.   

 

Given that, the thing to do is to try to keep the QB from having to throw more than 25 times a game.   Running is a good thing in any case, but especially with a young QB.  

 

As Allen matures, and we're seeing it happen before our eyes, and as the Bills acquire more talent in the receiver room, McDermott will be more inclined to let Allen bomb away.   Just not yet.  

 

[Ayjent]

I hope that they continue playing like this.  This is how good teams have to play - step up the performances as the season progresses.  It's the time of year that teams either start falling apart or start jelling.  It looks like they are jelling, but we will find out more over the next few weeks.

 

I wasn't a fan of the pick when they moved up for Allen - I think I had been beaten down by so many bad picks over the years that I didn't trust "the process", especially after they passed on picking a QB in the Mahomes and Watson draft - and I really liked Mahomes (disclaimer: I didn't ever think he'd be a 1st rounder and thought he would be there in the 2nd).  I absolutely knew Manuel was a joke of a pick when they made it - I watched just about every one of his college games and never saw anything that looked like a pro QB other than his size.  So not having watched Josh play much, but watching some plays I was pretty sure the Bills were falling in love with potential rather than anything that was tangible.  I think that they did fall in love with Josh's potential, but this staff and organization knew how they were going to groom him and saw things that they knew how to coach up - things that EJ didn't have and a staff that knew what to do to groom a young QB.  Has it always been pretty - NO.  I think they were looking pretty incompetent at the beginning of the season last year - but they just wanted to be able to ride with a guy that they hoped could play and might even garner some value if he played decent in Peterman.  That was a poor plan, but they didn't have much to lose with the roster they had last year.  Now they have a guy coming into his own, albeit slowly but with a lot of confidence and still learning.

 

Yesterday was another step for Josh and the offense with that no huddle they ran - that was honestly a great showing  and very encouraging.  Especially coming out on the first two drives and moving the ball right down the field after being pinned deep both times. This set the tone for the game - we are coming at you and we don't think you can stop what we are doing.  For the most part that is exactly what happened and had those FGs been touchdowns - the game could have gotten very ugly for the Broncos fast.

 

A few weeks ago I said I saw a good team that hadn't tapped it's potential - now we are starting to see it.

[TigerJ]

A big reason why Josh Allen did not have more yards passing was the Bills' strategic decision to run the ball.  Since they were successful doing so, there was no reason to switch and start passing the ball

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

I hope that they continue playing like this.  This is how good teams have to play - step up the performances as the season progresses.  It's the time of year that teams either start falling apart or start jelling.  It looks like they are jelling, but we will find out more over the next few weeks.

 

I wasn't a fan of the pick when they moved up for Allen - I think I had been beaten down by so many bad picks over the years that I didn't trust "the process", especially after they passed on picking a QB in the Mahomes and Watson draft - and I really liked Mahomes (disclaimer: I didn't ever think he'd be a 1st rounder and thought he would be there in the 2nd).  I absolutely knew Manuel was a joke of a pick when they made it - I watched just about every one of his college games and never saw anything that looked like a pro QB other than his size.  So not having watched Josh play much, but watching some plays I was pretty sure the Bills were falling in love with potential rather than anything that was tangible.  I think that they did fall in love with Josh's potential, but this staff and organization knew how they were going to groom him and saw things that they knew how to coach up - things that EJ didn't have and a staff that knew what to do to groom a young QB.  Has it always been pretty - NO.  I think they were looking pretty incompetent at the beginning of the season last year - but they just wanted to be able to ride with a guy that they hoped could play and might even garner some value if he played decent in Peterman.  That was a poor plan, but they didn't have much to lose with the roster they had last year.  Now they have a guy coming into his own, albeit slowly but with a lot of confidence and still learning.

 

Yesterday was another step for Josh and the offense with that no huddle they ran - that was honestly a great showing  and very encouraging.  Especially coming out on the first two drives and moving the ball right down the field after being pinned deep both times. This set the tone for the game - we are coming at you and we don't think you can stop what we are doing.  For the most part that is exactly what happened and had those FGs been touchdowns - the game could have gotten very ugly for the Broncos fast.

 

A few weeks ago I said I saw a good team that hadn't tapped it's potential - now we are starting to see it.

Good point about getting better as the season progresses.  That's an important aspect of all the good teams.  The Bills actually look like they're doing that.  

 

You say Allen's coming into his own, but slowly.   I think QBs aren't great until they've been at it five years or more.  The young ones who have success early either are flashes in the pan or they happen to be in the right system that let's them shine early.   It's learning all the intricacies, getting smarter every season, learning more, seeing more, that makes guys into great QBs.  I see that happening with Allen.   Running the no huddle yesterday was one example.   How comfortable he is in the pocket, scanning the receiver before delivering those passes with nice touch over the middle.   The touchdown to Beasley was an example of that.  Complete poise until he saw what he wanted, then a quick release with a ball that got their quickly but was still a soft ball for Beasley to handle.   That was a big-time QB play, and he did it like he could do it all day.  

 

He had a passer rating around 74 last season, and he's up to 86 this season, a nice jump into the middle of the pack.  Next season he will know more, he will execute more crisply, he'll have most or all of his offensive line returning, and I'm guessing he'll have an upgrade in the receiver room.   My hope for him was to get to top 15 this season and top 10 next season, and I think he's on track.  

 

I'm excited about the future because of the process.  I never felt good about Rosen, and I was thrilled when they took Allen.   Then I heard McBeane talk about him on draft night, how he was dead on what they were looking for in intangibles - competitor, leader, tireless worker - and I was sold.   He threw two incredible passes in preseason games his rookie year, and I was sure they'd made the right move.   I'm still sure.  

 

The Bills are going to win 9 to 11 games this season, and everyone should be really happy about that. 

[Ayjent]

57 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Good point about getting better as the season progresses.  That's an important aspect of all the good teams.  The Bills actually look like they're doing that.  

 

You say Allen's coming into his own, but slowly.   I think QBs aren't great until they've been at it five years or more.  The young ones who have success early either are flashes in the pan or they happen to be in the right system that let's them shine early.   It's learning all the intricacies, getting smarter every season, learning more, seeing more, that makes guys into great QBs.  I see that happening with Allen.   Running the no huddle yesterday was one example.   How comfortable he is in the pocket, scanning the receiver before delivering those passes with nice touch over the middle.   The touchdown to Beasley was an example of that.  Complete poise until he saw what he wanted, then a quick release with a ball that got their quickly but was still a soft ball for Beasley to handle.   That was a big-time QB play, and he did it like he could do it all day.  

 

He had a passer rating around 74 last season, and he's up to 86 this season, a nice jump into the middle of the pack.  Next season he will know more, he will execute more crisply, he'll have most or all of his offensive line returning, and I'm guessing he'll have an upgrade in the receiver room.   My hope for him was to get to top 15 this season and top 10 next season, and I think he's on track.  

 

I'm excited about the future because of the process.  I never felt good about Rosen, and I was thrilled when they took Allen.   Then I heard McBeane talk about him on draft night, how he was dead on what they were looking for in intangibles - competitor, leader, tireless worker - and I was sold.   He threw two incredible passes in preseason games his rookie year, and I was sure they'd made the right move.   I'm still sure.  

 

The Bills are going to win 9 to 11 games this season, and everyone should be really happy about that. 

Yeah he is showing poise and patience - I think Josh is on a slower trajectory than some QBs who have become pretty darn good in their first few years, but I think it will lead to a more reliable foundation for him to be a very good QB if the progress continues.  But that's okay, because this team is growing together and they are getting better and learning to trust each other as they grow.  I think Josh was a perfect fit for the city and the organization - a good balance of modesty and swagger, smart, hard-working, and team-first guy.  He had me take notice against the Vikings and then at the end of the season last year I was pretty convinced it was the right pick, despite my initial reaction that it was a really poor pick during the draft.  I liked Lamar Jackson a lot out of the group and thought he was as good a prospect as anybody, but didn't really like Darnold or Rosen.  I liked Mayfield, but thought he might be more of a system guy than people thought and I think that is still right.  I think he is about as good as he is going to be with a little improvement, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but I don't see his ceiling as being very high.  I'm not sure how good Jackson would be without his staff selling out on what Lamar can do well (which isn't a knock on him, but instead is really good coaching and player development).  Both Jackson and Allen are fortunate that they got drafted by the teams that they did.

 

As for the team as a whole.  I think that they are a well coached team that puts the concept of team front and center and I think they have the right players for that, and those types of teams are dangerous as they gain confidence.  I think the 4 best teams in the AFC are all well coached - Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs and Bills.  I think the Colts are well coached too, but I don't think they are talented enough to overcome their injuries and the void left by Luck and I think the more talented Texans likely beat them out for the South, although I don't think that they are particularly well coached (Bill O'Brien is severely overrated in my opinion).  

 

I see the AFC as a 4 team race and the Bills are about on par with the Chiefs when you look at a sum of the parts, and the Ravens and Pats are a notch above but also flawed enough to lose to any of the other three teams.  The Ravens may be the most complete team, the Pats have the best D, the Chiefs have the best O, and the Bills have a very complete team that is a bit short on top level talent with a few exceptions.  I think the Pats are too dependent on their D and their Offense will cost them at some point - a team that is physical and runs it at the Patriots can beat them.  Their teams have always been very balanced, and I think that it could haunt them that they are not this year.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Ayjent said:

Yeah he is showing poise and patience - I think Josh is on a slower trajectory than some QBs who have become pretty darn good in their first few years, but I think it will lead to a more reliable foundation for him to be a very good QB if the progress continues.  But that's okay, because this team is growing together and they are getting better and learning to trust each other as they grow.  I think Josh was a perfect fit for the city and the organization - a good balance of modesty and swagger, smart, hard-working, and team-first guy.  He had me take notice against the Vikings and then at the end of the season last year I was pretty convinced it was the right pick, despite my initial reaction that it was a really poor pick during the draft.  I liked Lamar Jackson a lot out of the group and thought he was as good a prospect as anybody, but didn't really like Darnold or Rosen.  I liked Mayfield, but thought he might be more of a system guy than people thought and I think that is still right.  I think he is about as good as he is going to be with a little improvement, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but I don't see his ceiling as being very high.  I'm not sure how good Jackson would be without his staff selling out on what Lamar can do well (which isn't a knock on him, but instead is really good coaching and player development).  Both Jackson and Allen are fortunate that they got drafted by the teams that they did.

 

As for the team as a whole.  I think that they are a well coached team that puts the concept of team front and center and I think they have the right players for that, and those types of teams are dangerous as they gain confidence.  I think the 4 best teams in the AFC are all well coached - Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs and Bills.  I think the Colts are well coached too, but I don't think they are talented enough to overcome their injuries and the void left by Luck and I think the more talented Texans likely beat them out for the South, although I don't think that they are particularly well coached (Bill O'Brien is severely overrated in my opinion).  

 

I see the AFC as a 4 team race and the Bills are about on par with the Chiefs when you look at a sum of the parts, and the Ravens and Pats are a notch above but also flawed enough to lose to any of the other three teams.  The Ravens may be the most complete team, the Pats have the best D, the Chiefs have the best O, and the Bills have a very complete team that is a bit short on top level talent with a few exceptions.  I think the Pats are too dependent on their D and their Offense will cost them at some point - a team that is physical and runs it at the Patriots can beat them.  Their teams have always been very balanced, and I think that it could haunt them that they are not this year.

I agree about the long term.  Whether the Bills are on a par with the Chiefs is an interesting question. 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

10 hours ago, whatdrought said:

Good post! The excitement level is building. This is, historically speaking, when they would lay an egg and twist a knife into all of our hearts... This team feels different to me. We'll see. 

Agreed; small point of order—the twisting knife usually made its appearance a bit earlier, like say, around halloweenish? That’s partially why this team feels different than previous drought stricken rosters...now let’s take it to Jerry’s world—nothing would make Thursday feel better than to watch that guy get embarrassed on national TV.

 

[Ayjent]

8 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree about the long term.  Whether the Bills are on a par with the Chiefs is an interesting question. 

On initial reaction most people wouldn't consider the Bills to be on par with Chiefs, because the Chiefs have that explosive Offense with a lot of top notch talent on that side of the ball.  Here's the thing - they are not really anything more than a good passing offense with a mediocre to below avg running game, and a below avg defense.  They are pretty one dimensional, and they are great at that one dimension, but it's why they have 4 losses and will likely be a 3rd or 4th seed accumulating a couple more losses before the end of the season.  By comparison the Bills are everything that the Chiefs aren't - a strong running game, a strong defense, and a passing game that is mediocre to below avg.  But that passing game isn't necessarily bad, it's just limited and short on big plays.  The Bills are a more balanced team from top to bottom than the Chiefs, but they don't have the Pats D or the Chiefs O.   The Bills' balance makes them dangerous to play because you have to beat them in so many facets, but it also means the Bills' have to play well in all facets to have a chance to beat good teams.

 

After watching the Ravens dismantle the Pats and Rams - I'm pretty sure they are the best team in the NFL right now, but there is still some time to go and things change in the NFL pretty fast.

[Figster]

57 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

On initial reaction most people wouldn't consider the Bills to be on par with Chiefs, because the Chiefs have that explosive Offense with a lot of top notch talent on that side of the ball.  Here's the thing - they are not really anything more than a good passing offense with a mediocre to below avg running game, and a below avg defense.  They are pretty one dimensional, and they are great at that one dimension, but it's why they have 4 losses and will likely be a 3rd or 4th seed accumulating a couple more losses before the end of the season.  By comparison the Bills are everything that the Chiefs aren't - a strong running game, a strong defense, and a passing game that is mediocre to below avg.  But that passing game isn't necessarily bad, it's just limited and short on big plays.  The Bills are a more balanced team from top to bottom than the Chiefs, but they don't have the Pats D or the Chiefs O.   The Bills' balance makes them dangerous to play because you have to beat them in so many facets, but it also means the Bills' have to play well in all facets to have a chance to beat good teams.

 

After watching the Ravens dismantle the Pats and Rams - I'm pretty sure they are the best team in the NFL right now, but there is still some time to go and things change in the NFL pretty fast.

Some of the teams including the Ravens that Baker Mayfield and the Browns have defeated makes them a very interesting dark horse going down the stretch. Probably not a team anyone wants to see in the playoffs. I like your analysis of Buffalo and how it compares to the Chiefs. Good stuff

 

 Ravens vs 49ers this coming up Sunday could be a little taste of whats in store for the Superbowl IMO.

 

I'm going with the 49ers... 

[Ayjent]

36 minutes ago, Figster said:

Some of the teams including the Ravens that Baker Mayfield and the Browns have defeated makes them a very interesting dark horse going down the stretch. Probably not a team anyone wants to see in the playoffs. I like your analysis of Buffalo and how it compares to the Chiefs. Good stuff

 

 Ravens vs 49ers this coming up Sunday could be a little taste of whats in store for the Superbowl IMO.

 

I'm going with the 49ers... 

Yeah very interesting game between the 49ers and Ravens - two of the frontrunners going at it.   It'll be interesting to see how the 49ers DL plays against the Ravens, because Aaron Donald was completely neutralized last night and the Ravens had their way with the Rams D, which is pretty good. Roman knows how to coach mobile QBs and build a strong offense around them, and Jackson may be the best one he's ever had (although this looks eerily like Colin Kaepernick's break out year).

 

The Bills are definitely in the mix as a solid playoff team, but we are about to find out a lot about them over the next 5 games.  I think that they go 3-2 over that stretch - I think they most likely beat the Steelers, Cowboys and Jets, and most likely lose to the Ravens and Pats. 11-5 sounds pretty good to me and about right. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Ayjent said:

On initial reaction most people wouldn't consider the Bills to be on par with Chiefs, because the Chiefs have that explosive Offense with a lot of top notch talent on that side of the ball.  Here's the thing - they are not really anything more than a good passing offense with a mediocre to below avg running game, and a below avg defense.  They are pretty one dimensional, and they are great at that one dimension, but it's why they have 4 losses and will likely be a 3rd or 4th seed accumulating a couple more losses before the end of the season.  By comparison the Bills are everything that the Chiefs aren't - a strong running game, a strong defense, and a passing game that is mediocre to below avg.  But that passing game isn't necessarily bad, it's just limited and short on big plays.  The Bills are a more balanced team from top to bottom than the Chiefs, but they don't have the Pats D or the Chiefs O.   The Bills' balance makes them dangerous to play because you have to beat them in so many facets, but it also means the Bills' have to play well in all facets to have a chance to beat good teams.

 

After watching the Ravens dismantle the Pats and Rams - I'm pretty sure they are the best team in the NFL right now, but there is still some time to go and things change in the NFL pretty fast.

Thanks.  As FIgster says. these are really good points.  

 

I like what you say about the Bills and the Chiefs.   I don't have a lot of confidence in the Bills over the next several weeks and the playoffs, because they just haven't looked a dominant team.  However, the Bills are the kind of team that can put it together and make a run.  It starts with a good defense.  The defense has the potential to shut down pretty much anyone, although the Ravens were nothing short of fantastic last night.   So the Bills have the potential to stay close with anyone.   And they have a sneaky good offense.   As I said earlier, if Allen is blossoming right now into a really good QB, he could make a huge difference in games in the coming weeks.  

 

Mostly, however, it's what you said about the future that I agree with and am excited about.   The Bills will be better next season, because that's how this team is designed.  The coaching will be better, the talent will be better, and the playing experience will be better.   The Bills will be a load next year.  

28 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Yeah very interesting game between the 49ers and Ravens - two of the frontrunners going at it.   It'll be interesting to see how the 49ers DL plays against the Ravens, because Aaron Donald was completely neutralized last night and the Ravens had their way with the Rams D, which is pretty good. Roman knows how to coach mobile QBs and build a strong offense around them, and Jackson may be the best one he's ever had (although this looks eerily like Colin Kaepernick's break out year).

 

The Bills are definitely in the mix as a solid playoff team, but we are about to find out a lot about them over the next 5 games.  I think that they go 3-2 over that stretch - I think they most likely beat the Steelers, Cowboys and Jets, and most likely lose to the Ravens and Pats. 11-5 sounds pretty good to me and about right. 

Agree about 11-5.  That's the best outcome anyone could reasonably expect, and it's an outcome that anyone here would have signed up for three months ago.  They go 11-5 and McDermott and Beane are coach and GM of the year.   

[Formerly Allan in MD]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, I really hate running on first down, especially when it results in having 244 rushing yards.   I hate that. 

 

Here's the way I look at the Bills.   McDermott does everything for a reason.  He knows his quarterback has limited experience, and quarterbacks with limited experience will make mistakes in the passing game, especially, if as McD has done with Allen, the QB has the whole play book to master.  Mistakes are bad.  McDermott hates them.  His philosophy is to strive to play mistake-free football.   

 

Given that, the thing to do is to try to keep the QB from having to throw more than 25 times a game.   Running is a good thing in any case, but especially with a young QB.  

 

As Allen matures, and we're seeing it happen before our eyes, and as the Bills acquire more talent in the receiver room, McDermott will be more inclined to let Allen bomb away.   Just not yet.  

 

Not talking about this particular game.  It depends on who you're playing, obviously.  If you think having a predictable offense is a weapon, season wise, good luck with that once you're playing the big guys.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:

Not talking about this particular game.  It depends on who you're playing, obviously.  If you think having a predictable offense is a weapon, season wise, good luck with that once you're playing the big guys.

I agree with that.  Like so many things, I think that's something the Patriots do well.  They're going to play the way that will work best to win the game, and that varies from game to game.  When you have a particular style, like the Rams a year ago or the Chiefs a year ago, you may be very, very good at playing that style, but once an opponent disrupts that game, you have nothing to fall back on.  Best to be able to play multiple styles. 

 

I think McDermott is conservative, and I've thought before that he is a little too insistent on running.  But as I think about it, I think he's actually more like Belichick.  As I said, I think he's conservative because he has a young QB who can't be expected to carry the team with his arm yet.   I expect that next season (and maybe as soon as the upcoming games), we will see McDermott take the wraps off Allen a bit more, and that's when you'll see the Bills less dedicated to establishing the running game.   

[downunderbill]

20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good point about getting better as the season progresses.  That's an important aspect of all the good teams.  The Bills actually look like they're doing that.  

 

You say Allen's coming into his own, but slowly.   I think QBs aren't great until they've been at it five years or more.  The young ones who have success early either are flashes in the pan or they happen to be in the right system that let's them shine early.   It's learning all the intricacies, getting smarter every season, learning more, seeing more, that makes guys into great QBs.  I see that happening with Allen.   Running the no huddle yesterday was one example.   How comfortable he is in the pocket, scanning the receiver before delivering those passes with nice touch over the middle.   The touchdown to Beasley was an example of that.  Complete poise until he saw what he wanted, then a quick release with a ball that got their quickly but was still a soft ball for Beasley to handle.   That was a big-time QB play, and he did it like he could do it all day.  

 

He had a passer rating around 74 last season, and he's up to 86 this season, a nice jump into the middle of the pack.  Next season he will know more, he will execute more crisply, he'll have most or all of his offensive line returning, and I'm guessing he'll have an upgrade in the receiver room.   My hope for him was to get to top 15 this season and top 10 next season, and I think he's on track.  

 

I'm excited about the future because of the process.  I never felt good about Rosen, and I was thrilled when they took Allen.   Then I heard McBeane talk about him on draft night, how he was dead on what they were looking for in intangibles - competitor, leader, tireless worker - and I was sold.   He threw two incredible passes in preseason games his rookie year, and I was sure they'd made the right move.   I'm still sure.  

 

The Bills are going to win 9 to 11 games this season, and everyone should be really happy about that. 

 

I share your excitement for the processes future. Very possibly the second season of making the playoffs out of three for this staff, the other season following the great salary cap purge, so not much of a chance there. Who else would have signed up for that during any stage of the preceding 17 years. Beane and McDermott are learning their positions as first timers as much as Allen is learning his. mistakes were and will be made, but they are all getting good. They aren't even done yet, I hear they might have some loose change in their pockets to spend next year, and I think the perception of not wanting to play in Buffalo might have softened a little.

 

Buffalos schedule may have been softer this year but in the past we still would have lost a few of those games and we'd all have the calculators out working out how they could get in. Times are good, but for now I hope they get Beaze a W.

[Ayjent]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with that.  Like so many things, I think that's something the Patriots do well.  They're going to play the way that will work best to win the game, and that varies from game to game.  When you have a particular style, like the Rams a year ago or the Chiefs a year ago, you may be very, very good at playing that style, but once an opponent disrupts that game, you have nothing to fall back on.  Best to be able to play multiple styles. 

 

I think McDermott is conservative, and I've thought before that he is a little too insistent on running.  But as I think about it, I think he's actually more like Belichick.  As I said, I think he's conservative because he has a young QB who can't be expected to carry the team with his arm yet.   I expect that next season (and maybe as soon as the upcoming games), we will see McDermott take the wraps off Allen a bit more, and that's when you'll see the Bills less dedicated to establishing the running game.   

I thought they really stuck with the run game against Denver, even when it seemed like only 1 in 3 designed run plays was successful to start the game.  That eventually changed as the carries mounted, but I think that they need to stick with it like they did on Sunday, as long as they are moving the chains.  Now how and from what formations they run is more of my issue, but I like what I saw on Sunday as opposed to earlier in the year.  I think they saw a weakness they could exploit with the Broncos run D and they committed to it.

 

I do like that Daboll is adaptive, but there is a fine line between doing what you do well and doing something to exploit a weakness  regardless of whether it is something you typically do (or can do).  Sometimes I feel like they try to adapt too much to the other team and that has gotten them into trouble.  Sometimes they get away from what is working because of what the defense is doing.  Sometimes you can still do what you want despite the opponent trying to stop it the best way they can.  I guess it is a philosophy of be adaptive because you need to be against the team that can stop you.   I'm kind of torn on how you play it, but I can see why they do what they do.  Maybe as Josh and the Offense get more cohesive and prolific you worry a little less about cat & mouse games and impose your will the way you want.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Ayjent

[LABILLBACKER]

On 11/25/2019 at 10:15 AM, Shaw66 said:

Right.  I didn't mention special teams, except for Bojo's punt to the 11.  He punted pretty well all day. 

 

And it's pretty clear now why Andre Roberts is a league leading kick returner.   Some guys just have a knack for that job, and he has it.  He reads the oncoming tacklers really well and sees the openings.  

He leads the NFL in touchbacks and is dead last in net punts. That basically makes him the worst punter in the NFL. He'll be upgraded in the off season. 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He leads the NFL in touchbacks and is dead last in net punts. That basically makes him the worst punter in the NFL. He'll be upgraded in the off season. 

I've never liked him.  Inconsistent, and I think he has limited skills.  Good punters these day can control the ball much better than they used to, and Bojo looks like an old-school boomer to me.  Just pound the ball, kick it high, and live with the results.  Someone has to be better than that.