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Posted (edited)
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:34 PM, USABuffaloFan said:

Guarantee he has made at least 10X more than 3.

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Last year Brady was 7 of 21 in 31+.  Allen was 6 of 21 in 31+.  Both were actually bad.  They were around 28-30%.  The middle of the league was around 40%.  I don't believe this discludes yards after the catch.  I found it in something called "the deep ball project" if anyone wants to google it for themselves.

Edited by Scott7975
Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 10:00 PM, quinnearlysghost88 said:

He's so afraid to throw the ball anywhere near a defender. Does he not have trust in our WRs to go up and get it? 

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an improvement over Tyrod who never learned to lead a WR, and wouldn't throw unless the primary was open for 2 seconds and doing jumping jacks for attention

 

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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:37 PM, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

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  On 11/11/2019 at 9:37 PM, Big Blitz said:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/2018-19-deep-ball-project

 

 

Allen was 13 - 50 on "long balls" last year.  Over 21 yards.   

 

Watson 18 - 45.  Wow.  Huge difference.  

 

Mahomes 34-81.  With guys like Hill Wakins and Kelce to throw to.  And yes he is awesome.  

 

Stafford was 11-44. 

 

Brady was 14-48

 

 

 

He hasn't connected on the bomb that's for sure.  We aren't scoring enough.  Sure.  

 

But this stat is overblown.  At least he's taking the shots.  Maybe we should be taking more of them.  

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Brady is on pace for just 46 deep throws this season after averaging 60 in his 12 previous 16-game seasons. He is typically a 40% connection rate on those throws.

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 10:02 PM, Do The Reich Thing said:

This guys is supposed to be an NFL QB!!! Anyone making an excuse for 3 of 36 is injecting their veins with JA juice.

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i'd love to bring the hammer down on him but he's got a few more years to learn this game

 

Kelly took Year 3 to start making the Bills epic, even after semi-pro experience in the USFL

 

 

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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:57 PM, Wayne Arnold said:

 

But Allen isn't even close to his receivers.

 

How do you "learn" how to throw a deep ball accurately? Tua is the best I've ever seen at throwing a deep ball. He didn't "learn" how. He's just naturally good at it.

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Aaron Rodgers did not throw a good deep ball coming out and now he has one of the world's best. He had bad mechanics and it hindered his delivery

 

Same with Josh on his deep ball mechanics. Rodgers had 3 years on the bench to work out the kinks

 

Coaches coach for a reason. If Josh is coachable , then he should be able to hone in his mechanics and throw deep as soon as next season

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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:43 PM, Buffalo716 said:

A HoF QB? We are comparing a green 2nd year guy to one of the greatest

 

QBs learn , so apparently if Josh gets it he will become Kelly? Your comparing him to a legend

 

If he becomes 3-5ths of Kelly we would be set

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Compare Josh to Mahomes. 

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:56 PM, billspro said:

 

Weird I thought those were often his best throws. I remember a big play to Knox and Foster just in yesterday’s game. I’m sure there are other examples as well.

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He missed a huge one to Brown that could have been a monster play.  Some of them are just slightly off which kills YAC.  He did have some great balls in the middle of the field.  I could be wrong but he seems much more comfortable at hitting stationary targets rather than moving ones. 

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:44 PM, thebandit27 said:

 

So basically the OP's stat is made up?

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These numbers don’t add up. Something’s not passing the smell test. Big Blitz at least provided a kink and numbers for other QB’s. I’m not researching this, but that is a start, and far more than putting it together from the old “multiple sources”.  

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:47 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

I do care about the long ball. I believe the improvement in completion % and the intermediate throws is more important. But he does need to hit a few of these home run balls. Just like the defense needs to force more turnovers, Allen and the offense needs to stretch and pressure the opposing defense. He has to get better with this.

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You don't see dime defenses till you do. 

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:19 PM, USABuffaloFan said:

Not writing this to bash Josh Allen, I like him and think he SOME DAY will be a great QB. The problem I have is the Bills could have won two more games with a passer that can hit the long ball. Can Josh throw far, YES. Does Josh have touch to drop a ball over the top shoulder, haven't seen that yet. He is 6-3 so what do you do about this that 9 games hasn't shown you. Can the Bills offense beat Baltimore, Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh and even Denver. Is this Bills team just a QB away? Can they win this year in the playoffs? If your answering YES than Barkley must be given a shot. If your not sure or NO then stay the course and see if Josh develops. I am not saying get rid of Josh, just saying you never hand someone a job without working for it. Josh's upside is huge if this is done right. He is not playing that much better than Taylor at this point of his career. Tough decision, at this point though I see this season's playoff chances in jeopardy with Josh playing like this. 

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I stopped reading right after the bold sentence.   

 

Should their coaches quit on Elway, Manning, Kelly, Farve, after 9 games?   None of them looked very good at that point.  

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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 10:06 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

He missed a huge one to Brown that could have been a monster play.  Some of them are just slightly off which kills YAC.  He did have some great balls in the middle of the field.  I could be wrong but he seems much more comfortable at hitting stationary targets rather than moving ones. 

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The Brown throw was terrible, that would have been a huge play in the game. I think in general deep crossing patterns are his best throw. He had a great one to Brown on a rollout at the end of last game too. He is definitely not a pinpoint guy so he needs to hit lots of chunk plays to be effective.

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Posted (edited)
  On 11/11/2019 at 10:05 PM, USABuffaloFan said:

Compare Josh to Mahomes. 

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Ok.  Did Josh beat Tennessee, yes.  

Did Mahomes, no.

 

Straw-man arguments rarely work in anyones favor unless you're just trying to say "I'm right!".

Edited by The Wiz
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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:49 PM, 34-78-83 said:

This is true... and not likely for a number of the next few seasons.

Might be a good time for those who have already made their minds up to jump off the wagon or prepare be angry and frustrated for the foreseeable future.

Again, its like they are talking about Tyrod or Trent Edwards or someone... It ain't happening. There's too much good and too much progress.

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Fine with that but expect a few more days against talented teams like yesterday.

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Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:22 PM, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

As long as he continues to hit the 10 to 20 yards pass as well as he does, he stays in.  Barkley can't hit those throws like JA does, and its not even close. Those throws are also way more important than the occasional deep shot. 

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He is money inside 30 yards, but would it kill Dorsey to work with Josh on that flat trajectory. It's like he can throw the ball 80 yards and it won't go higher than 20' above the ground. 

Posted
  On 11/11/2019 at 9:53 PM, Buffalo716 said:

The good ones hit 30-40 % and throw it 20-25 times a season. You only need a few completions to spike ratings

 

Can Josh get better? Yes. Do young QBs improve? Yes

 

You realize if Josh was even 0-10 on those balls. BuT he hit 3 out of his next 10 for 3-20 he'd be 15% already. 

 

Drew Brees only hit 11% of his balls 30+ yards downfield last season. HoF Brees

 

Allen can learn

 

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Brees get 5000 yard seasons, 300 yard games are nothing to him. Can't believe your using him to compare.

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