Joe B Observations on Bills win over Phins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Joe B Article in the Athletic, paywall

 

It is mostly observations of what went down, some insight on why these things happened

 

- "the Bills offered up a sobering result. It ....raised awareness of problems that a better team would have exploited — areas of concern the team will have to improve by the time their next opponent comes to town "

- "The Bills put together three scoring drives in the first half, but all resulted in field goals and allowed the Dolphins to hang around. Throughout that first half, Allen missed on some throws and looked timid in some decisions. Allen’s first half wound up with an inefficient 6-of-15 passing performance for just 90 yards while taking two sacks. They moved the ball yet sputtered when it mattered most"
- "Like the rest of the team, Allen woke up in the second half and helped the Bills capture the victory. He looked much more poised and finally began to take advantage of the mismatches that littered the field. Allen went 10-of-11 the rest of the way for 112 yards and two touchdowns, an electrifying performance to secure a victory when given the opportunity."

- "Allen had (...) a glorious opportunity [for a deep throw] in the fourth quarter as Andre Roberts got behind the corner and safety with plenty of separation. Allen correctly spotted the win, fired the ball down the field and wound up missing the mark by at least 5 yards. ...In the first half, John Brown burned past Miami cornerback Ryan Lewis in a one-on-one opportunity, and Allen overthrew him. Brown didn’t have a chance to make a play on the ball. It’s an infuriating facet to the 2019 season because Allen, based on his big-armed skill set, should flourish on those low-percentage throws. However, he hasn’t been able to hit on any of them this year"
-Miami exploited Milano's absence by pushing Buffalo into its base defense with Maurice Alexander: "One of the primary players the Dolphins tried to attack was Maurice Alexander. From the Dolphins’ first touchdown drive through their initial possession of the second half, they kept Alexander on the field for 24 of 39 snaps. Alexander was in the wrong place ahead of the snap a couple of times, which signals a small piece of what the Bills lose when they don’t have Milano. Once the play starts, they were without an extremely instinctive off-ball linebacker with supreme reaction time. Alexander had his moments, but Miami mostly took advantage of him until the Bills made their second-half adjustment"

-Buffalo's D significant adjustment in the second half per 'Zo: “One thing I liked that we went to in the second half — we put me off the ball instead of me being on the ball in the first half, so I could at least flow over the top. Because when you’re playing the back edge and I’m on, like, the line of scrimmage, I’m really just a C-gap player sitting there, just kind of being pointless, because they were running a lot of balls away from me. I like that (defensive coordinator Leslie) Frazier took me off and went back to our base-over fronts, where I’m a stacked linebacker. I think that helped as well because then maybe you get an extra guy over the top, and if somebody does misfit it, then we can at least get the guy down before it becomes an explosion play.”

-According to Joe B, Levi Wallace's Bad Day was a result of man coverage: " As the Bills were attempting to find the cure against the run in the first half, part of their early strategy was to sell out and trust their cornerbacks in man-to-man coverage. While it hasn’t been a problem to begin the season, second-year cornerback Levi Wallace struggled with the responsibility against Miami. Wallace is better suited to the Bills’ usual zone coverage, though he’s occasionally flashed as a man defender. The Dolphins started to pick on Wallace a bit, and the cornerback kept allowing the opposition to gain first downs and stay on the field."
 

Joe ends by pointing out that instead of dominating, the Bills provided questions about how other teams could exploit them.

 

My take, having not quite finished a Gamepass review of the first half:

-I think that Miami managed to suss out coverages and techniques that New England used to keep Allen off balance.  I think he was struggling to read the coverage at times and it made him slow to progress and sometimes reluctant to throw.

-TAKE THE FREAKIN' INVISIBILITY CLOAK OFF MOTOR!  On a good handful of plays where either everyone was covered, or Allen seemed uncertain about the coverage, there was Singletary, open and available.  Sure, it's a check-down, but WTF Allen?  He's got speed, he's got moves, and he's paid to run the football.  Hello, would Singletary be a better choice for a checkdown than Lee Smith? 

-However, when I saw this, usually Singletary was on the L side of the field.  Is this somewhere Allen just won't throw?

-There was at least one play where Allen had time and Beasley was open, but the ball practically clocked him.  I think Allen started the game a bit too amped up.

-There were several plays where I think the protections were wrong for the blitz.  I saw this in the Titans game and NE game.  Whoever is responsible for calling the protection (Allen?  Morse?) the Bills have GOT to get this sorted out.

 

And last: Frankly, I wonder if the team overdid a bit the "respect for our opponent" thing with regard to Fitz.  It was obvious that Lee Smith had a man-crush on Fitz.  In his post-game pressure it sounded like Allen had a lot of respect for Fitz.  It was almost as though they took him too seriously, instead of being "Yeah, we'll all pressure him and get in his face and sack him and get him to press and feast on his picks" 

 

I don't know.  Maybe Joe B is correct and they just didn't play with urgency:  " The faster they learn that and play with more urgency at the start of games, the better it is for the remainder of the season. "

[Kelly the Dog]

The good Fitzy is a pretty darn good QB. The bad Fitzy is more bad than the good Fitzy is good. The good Fitzy doesn't usually show up more than half the time, but he did today. 

[MJS]

I think the big thing is we just got good Fitz instead of bad Fitz. He'll implode eventually, but he was on his game today. Luckily we were just more talented than them and nothing he did could overcome that.

 

The offense just needs to get out of it's own way. Allen needs to just keep getting experience and see the game slow down. He still seems raw to me, but it's clear he has the tools.

 

There needs to be more in-game adjustments, not only half time adjustments. If something isn't working they need to identify that and make changes on the fly. I'm always confident that McDermott will make the right halftime adjustments, but you can't throw out the entire first half before you adjust. So that's one area that the coaches need to grow in.

Edited October 21, 2019 by MJS

[US Egg]

Bills offense is clearly a work in progress. Game should have been over at halftime.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

21 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The good Fitzy is a pretty darn good QB. The bad Fitzy is more bad than the good Fitzy is good. The good Fitzy doesn't usually show up more than half the time, but he did today. 

 

True Dat.  Our lone victory over NE in a meaningful game QB'd by Brady.  September 25, 2011.  34-31 Bills win.

Who was the QB?  Ryan Fitzpatrick.  And he was on fire.  369 passing yards all caught by those all time greats Donald Jones, Stevie Johnson, and David Nelson. 2 TD, no sacks.

 

He did throw 2 picks though ?  but it didn't matter 'cuz Brady threw 4.

[Prickly Pete]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And last: Frankly, I wonder if the team overdid a bit the "respect for our opponent" thing with regard to Fitz.  It was obvious that Lee Smith had a man-crush on Fitz.  In his post-game pressure it sounded like Allen had a lot of respect for Fitz.  It was almost as though they took him too seriously, instead of being "Yeah, we'll all pressure him and get in his face and sack him and get him to press and feast on his picks" 

 

I don't know.  Maybe Joe B is correct and they just didn't play with urgency:  " The faster they learn that and play with more urgency at the start of games, the better it is for the remainder of the season. "

 

 

They mentioned that Lee Smith and Fitzlacksit went out to eat the night before...I think that was more Lee Smith ball washing his buddy Fitzpatspick.

[Big Turk]

Well, I think part of what we saw was the result of having to kind of ramp up coming off the bye week...neither side of the ball was really "all there" in the first half.  Second half was not starting out well and then Tre White pretty much turned the tide of the game with that INT near the goal line.

[wvbillsfan]

I don’t get the Levi Wallace blurb. I wouldn’t call it a bad game. He gave up a deep ball but on every other pass he was in the WRs hip pocket. Those Miami wrs just used their size. 
 

I’ not sure how good Zach Brown is anymore but he’s got to be better than Mo Alexander. Alexander looked lost. Lost in a way that he didn’t even know where to line up or what his responsibility was. Hard to play that way. 
 

My biggest takeaway from this game....get well soon Matt

[stevewin]

Depth at LB is a real concern esp after this game.  Just hope our starters there get/stay healthy going forward.

 

Was interesting to hear Lorax's explanation of the issues with the run in the first half.  It was good they got it corrected, but as Joe B mentioned why couldn't they have made the adjustment earlier - before halftime?

 

The Foster thing is surprising.  Makes you wonder if he isn't really shining at practice and off the field in general - the anti-Duke if you will

Edited October 21, 2019 by stevewin

[Big Turk]

The Bills seem to do just enough in many of these games to win. I'm not complaining and when it happens this frequently that you win close, tight games it isn't luck but man would it feel good just to come out and demolish a team one week and not have to worry about it.

[Cotton Fitzsimmons]

6 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The good Fitzy is a pretty darn good QB. The bad Fitzy is more bad than the good Fitzy is good. The good Fitzy doesn't usually show up more than half the time, but he did today. 

 

YE OLE had posted that we all just got a little bit nervous about this game as soon as Fitz was announced as the starter. For those who are unnerved about yesterday’s result, it’s almost a carbon copy of what Fitz did in week 7 of 2010. The Bills lost 37-34 in OT in Baltimore, against a Ravens team that would finish the season 12-4. The Bills dropped to 0-6 that day, but Fitz did that thing that he’s become known for. After the game, Chan was asked about one play in particular where Fitz somehow threaded the needle through about 4 Ravens to hit David Nelson in the end zone for a TD. Chan said, “I couldn’t believe Fitz threw it and I couldn’t believe David caught it!”

 

When Fitz starts slinging the ball around like that, regardless of how bereft of talent the team is around him, he’s damn near unstoppable. If Fitz plays the rest of the season, they’re going to win a couple games they have no business being in and won’t finish 0-16.

Edited October 21, 2019 by Cotton Fitzsimmons

[Saint Doug]

I don’t think this will serve as a template to attack the Bills. Lost in all this, and not being mentioned, is that the Fins were playing excellent football. Fitz came to play and when he’s on fire, he’s very hard to stop. That is, I don’t think “a better team” would’ve played any more efficient than the Fins did in the 1st half. Let’s give credit where credit is due instead of just saying the Bills were exposed. 

Edited October 21, 2019 by Saint Doug

[Bob in STL]

I find it hard to believe that in year 3 of the total rebuild the local sportswriters and a large portion of the fans are now compelled to complain about “ugly wins”.    Booing the team at halftime?   Seems a bit New Englandy or New Yorkish.  

 

We are 5-1 and Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News writes an article on Ugly wins.  Who is he?   

 

Wins are wins in the NFL.  This team is still a work in progress.  Miami played hard, credit the opponent.  

 

Expecting to beat teams by 3TDs is not realistic, we are not a juggernaut, we are not an experienced playoff team.  We are an upstart team on the rise. 

 

Lets enjoy it.  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

41 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Depth at LB is a real concern esp after this game.  Just hope our starters there get/stay healthy going forward.

 

Was interesting to hear Lorax's explanation of the issues with the run in the first half.  It was good they got it corrected, but as Joe B mentioned why couldn't they have made the adjustment earlier - before halftime?

 

The Foster thing is surprising.  Makes you wonder if he isn't really shining at practice and off the field in general - the anti-Duke if you will

 

I think Foster is hampered by injuries. Turf toe and a hamstring (right?) can really linger, even if you aren't on the injury card. 

3 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I find it hard to believe that in year 3 of the total rebuild the local sportswriters and a large portion of the fans are now compelled to complain about “ugly wins”.    Booing the team at halftime?   Seems a bit New Englandy or New Yorkish.  

 

We are 5-1 and Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News writes an article on Ugly wins.  Who is he?   

 

Wins are wins in the NFL.  This team is still a work in progress.  Miami played hard, credit the opponent.  

 

Expecting to beat teams by 3TDs is not realistic, we are not a juggernaut, we are not an experienced playoff team.  We are an upstart team on the rise. 

 

Lets enjoy it.  

 

1. Shame on anyone who boo'd the team at halftime. So embarrassing. I know on the national radio show I listen to, it was very poorly received. 

 

2. I bet on Miami with the points. I knew we would win, but anyone that thought it would be by 17 points was fooling themselves. This is not a year to year process. We are on a steady incline, and its great, but if you get greedy and expect too much, you are going to walk away disappointed. 

[billsbackto81]

42 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:

I don’t get the Levi Wallace blurb. I wouldn’t call it a bad game. He gave up a deep ball but on every other pass he was in the WRs hip pocket. Those Miami wrs just used their size. 
 

I’ not sure how good Zach Brown is anymore but he’s got to be better than Mo Alexander. Alexander looked lost. Lost in a way that he didn’t even know where to line up or what his responsibility was. Hard to play that way. 
 

My biggest takeaway from this game....get well soon Matt

Dont sugar coat it, Levi was getting toasted. WR's using their size? C'mon dude, he's the reason they didn't bother throwing on Tre's side. He's not a man corner.

[Mr. WEO]

36 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I find it hard to believe that in year 3 of the total rebuild the local sportswriters and a large portion of the fans are now compelled to complain about “ugly wins”.    Booing the team at halftime?   Seems a bit New Englandy or New Yorkish.  

 

We are 5-1 and Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News writes an article on Ugly wins.  Who is he?   

 

Wins are wins in the NFL.  This team is still a work in progress.  Miami played hard, credit the opponent.  

 

Expecting to beat teams by 3TDs is not realistic, we are not a juggernaut, we are not an experienced playoff team.  We are an upstart team on the rise. 

 

Lets enjoy it.  

 

Well, I think it would have been reasonable to expect that the Bills would not have been the team to give up the most points to the Dolphins so far, and the most total yards in Offense.  It's a team that is scoring 8 ppg so far. Other than the Skins, every other team nearly shut them out---and this is a Dolphins team with most of their talent traded or injured.

 

They let Miami stay in the game until under the 2 minute warning.   It's OK to expect it never should have been a contest---as it wasn't for Baltimore, NE, Dallas, Chargers......

[BillsVet]

41 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

I find it hard to believe that in year 3 of the total rebuild the local sportswriters and a large portion of the fans are now compelled to complain about “ugly wins”.    Booing the team at halftime?   Seems a bit New Englandy or New Yorkish.  

 

We are 5-1 and Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News writes an article on Ugly wins.  Who is he?   

 

Wins are wins in the NFL.  This team is still a work in progress.  Miami played hard, credit the opponent.  

 

Expecting to beat teams by 3TDs is not realistic, we are not a juggernaut, we are not an experienced playoff team.  We are an upstart team on the rise. 

 

Lets enjoy it.  

 

It comes down to perspective.  To some, that means determining whether a blue-print is forming which identifies major weaknesses the Bills don't have the personnel or strategy to cover up.  To others, this game is a speed bump in a long season.

 

We're going to find out how teams approach playing the Bills.  Film study, at about mid-season, is showing this defense may have some personnel issues.  On offense, it'll revolve around getting Allen to make mistakes. 

 

That said, by year 3 of a rebuild, and knowing how quickly other teams have rebuild, this team should not be struggling against one of the worst teams in recent NFL history.  The bar should be set a lot higher.

 

 

[nedboy7]

Great write up by joe.  Good to read some real analysis of the game. Instead of wins are wins don’t complain!  

[Dan]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

I find it hard to believe that in year 3 of the total rebuild the local sportswriters and a large portion of the fans are now compelled to complain about “ugly wins”.    Booing the team at halftime?   Seems a bit New Englandy or New Yorkish.  

 

We are 5-1 and Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News writes an article on Ugly wins.  Who is he?   

 

Wins are wins in the NFL.  This team is still a work in progress.  Miami played hard, credit the opponent.  

 

Expecting to beat teams by 3TDs is not realistic, we are not a juggernaut, we are not an experienced playoff team.  We are an upstart team on the rise. 

 

Lets enjoy it.  

I have to agree with you.  The boos were kinda odd to hear.  I think the expectations were/are too high.  Although we're in year 3 of the rebuild, we're in year 1 of the offensive rebuild.  Other than Allen and Dawkins the entire starting offense is new.  It should be expected that continuity will be a problem and mistakes will be made.  

 

This team is 5-1.  And unlike other fast starts, the way they're winning is sustainable.  These aren't fluke wins.  Its not the other team having bad days.  Its the Bills playing for a full 60minutes ans making the plays they have to, at the times they have to.  It's overcoming the bad officiating, the stupid penalities, the bad mistakes.   This team won't finish the season 15-1, but they're playing solid football and winning games that past teams would have easily lost.   

 

I agree; we should all be enjoying it. This team is heading in the right direction.   They're not perfect by any means, but they're doing what it takes to win.  I'll take that for now.  And continue to watch this team develop and grow together.

Edited October 21, 2019 by Dan

[BillsVet]

24 minutes ago, Dan said:

I have to agree with you.  The boos were kinda odd to hear.  I think the expectations were/are too high.  Although we're in year 3 of the rebuild, we're in year 1 of the offensive rebuild.  Other than Allen and Dawkins the entire starting offense is new.  It should be expected that continuity will be a problem and mistakes will be made.  

 

This team is 5-1.  And unlike other fast starts, the way they're winning is sustainable.  These aren't fluke wins.  Its not the other team having bad days.  Its the Bills playing for a full 60minutes ans making the plays they have to, at the times they have to.  It's overcoming the bad officiating, the stupid penalities, the bad mistakes.   This team won't finish the season 15-1, but they're playing solid football and winning games that past teams would have easily lost.   

 

I agree; we should all be enjoying it. This team is heading in the right direction.   They're not perfect by any means, but they're doing what it takes to win.  I'll take that for now.  And continue to watch this team develop and grow together.

 

It comes down to seeing whether one sees these games as individual events or predictive of the future.  Given how teams employ film study and look to exploit weaknesses, the individual event perspective remains myopic and incapable of looking down the road. 

 

No one can say whether this winning is sustainable.  On one hand, the remaining schedule features teams winning less than 40% of their games.  On the other, Buffalo has, during the past 20 years, had a hard time beating quality teams late in the season.  I'm interested to see how they fare against Philadelphia next week to address that.