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Josh Allen haters: a 10 year history lesson on 1st round QBʻs


rayray808

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There’s a common thing amongst all these 1st round failures. The vast majority of these QBs were forced to start the year they were drafted. Apparently gone are the days where QBs are properly developed and mentored. These QBs pop their first year, then fizzle as they can’t reach the next level. Sure, some like Mahomes, if placed on a well-coached team, can do well. But, the reality these teams picked in the 1st round for a reason. Because they suck and are usually being coached by a first time HC. This is just the nature of the beast nowadays. 

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9 minutes ago, Saint Doug said:

There’s a common thing amongst all these 1st round failures. The vast majority of these QBs were forced to start the year they were drafted. Apparently gone are the days where QBs are properly developed and mentored. These QBs pop their first year, then fizzle as they can’t reach the next level. Sure, some like Mahomes, if placed on a well-coached team, can do well. But, the reality these teams picked in the 1st round for a reason. Because they suck and are usually being coached by a first time HC. This is just the nature of the beast nowadays. 

The saying is more qbs are ruined than made. I know people hate him but Josh Rosen literally was given no chance to succeed.  I have questions about the offensive talent around Allen but he has the huge benefit of having a great defense so he never really has to carry the team. 

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8 hours ago, downunderbill said:

 

I don't think many people think he's a finished product at all, far from it, but his career is 16 games old. The pessimists, or realists as you like to call your selves, are the same as the more optimistic members just at different ends of the spectrum.

In the end it's just entertainment, the Bills are 4-1, and some choose to enjoy the game and the Bills. 

There isn't a poster that believes Josh is anywhere near a completed product.  It's this kind of hyperbole that fires up folks.

 

Good post!

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18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The saying is more qbs are ruined than made. I know people hate him but Josh Rosen literally was given no chance to succeed.  I have questions about the offensive talent around Allen but he has the huge benefit of having a great defense so he never really has to carry the team. 

 

I'm not sure the Bill's defense is the factor in Josh's performance as much as you think it is.

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5 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

Goff yes. 

 

Mahomes threw for 373 yards and 3 TDs yesterday...and threw his first INT--in 20 minutes time of possession. 

 

He's averaging 350 yards/game, with 14 TDs and 1 INT. 

 

Every team wishes their QB was falling apart like that.

 

273 yds.  Two hundred seventy three yards, not 373, Three hundred seventy three. 

There is a significant difference. 

 

Also note the fumble.  It matters.  It may have been a difference in the game.  If you consider (as some coaches have said) that a sack can be functionally equivalent to a TO, the 8 sacks and 2 fumbles must be considered.

 

You still have a point that other teams "wish their QB was falling apart like that".  Mahomes is a very very talented young QB, no question.  I think he may be coming to depend a little bit too much upon his ability to stick the throw no matter what - double coverage, off balance, underhand, sidearm, doesn't matter.  Until it goes a step too far and it does.  But that's just my opinion and time will tell.

 

I haven't personally watched Goff to have a feeling as to whether or not he's falling apart.  He's still putting up good passing numbers, his problem seems to be putting up far more INTs than the last 2 years.   Is Gurley a factor - not having Gurley to dump off to, or as much of a run game to take the pressure off of him?  My feeling about Goff has always been that he's a QB that can win in the right system with the right pieces around him.

 

Which, by the way, remains to be seen about Mahomes - I know some here contend so, but until we see what he does without Andy Reed, Hill and Kelce the verdict will be out.

 

 

24 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

The saying is more qbs are ruined than made. I know people hate him but Josh Rosen literally was given no chance to succeed.  I have questions about the offensive talent around Allen but he has the huge benefit of having a great defense so he never really has to carry the team. 

 

I don't think that's how Allen felt last season, and I don't think that's how he felt after the blocked punt for TD against the Pats.

 

I mean, a great D is fine, but unless we're counting on the other team's ST miscues or defensive TDs, sooner or later the O has to put some points on the board

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1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

273 yds.  Two hundred seventy three yards, not 373, Three hundred seventy three. 

There is a significant difference. 

 

Also note the fumble.  It matters.  It may have been a difference in the game.  If you consider (as some coaches have said) that a sack can be functionally equivalent to a TO, the 8 sacks and 2 fumbles must be considered.

 

You still have a point that other teams "wish their QB was falling apart like that".  Mahomes is a very very talented young QB, no question.  I think he may be coming to depend a little bit too much upon his ability to stick the throw no matter what - double coverage, off balance, underhand, sidearm, doesn't matter.  Until it goes a step too far and it does.  But that's just my opinion and time will tell.

 

I haven't personally watched Goff to have a feeling as to whether or not he's falling apart.  He's still putting up good passing numbers, his problem seems to be putting up far more INTs than the last 2 years.   Is Gurley a factor - not having Gurley to dump off to, or as much of a run game to take the pressure off of him?  My feeling about Goff has always been that he's a QB that can win in the right system with the right pieces around him.

 

Which, by the way, remains to be seen about Mahomes - I know some here contend so, but until we see what he does without Andy Reed, Hill and Kelce the verdict will be out.

 

 

273 yards would be Allen’s career high and it was against a good team in Houston. 

 

But it I guess he set the bar so high so expectations are out of wack.  

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

273 yards would be Allen’s career high and it was against a good team in Houston. 

 

But it I guess he set the bar so high so expectations are out of wack.  

I think you also have to look at team concept...

 

When you have what might be the best defense in the league you dont NEED to throw for 300 yards a game.JA DOES need to cut down on the turnovers but 250 yards, some TDs, a solid running game, is MORE then enough to win with a defense this good.

 

As shown by the 4-1 record

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

I think you also have to look at team concept...

 

When you have what might be the best defense in the league you dont NEED to throw for 300 yards a game.JA DOES need to cut down on the turnovers but 250 yards, some TDs, a solid running game, is MORE then enough to win with a defense this good.

 

As shown by the 4-1 record

I generally agree. However, it would be great to see a monster game once against a good team from Allen.  

 

This feels a little Mark sanchez like.  And that’s fine because I love a playoff run but it makes me nervous long term. 

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Nothing in the OP resembles a scientific comparison to say why any of these QBs are good or bad, it's just a list of names with arbitrary commentary on them.  

 

Maybe take some time if you're going to claim a 10 year comparison, you get high and mighty telling us you're going to "Give a Lesson" then give us nothing... may you should and I don't know... COMPARE THESE GUYS!   Pull the stats from their first years as starters, compare them to the stats from their second years as starters, then third?  Show progression of which failed and which succeeded?

 

This thread is the equivalent of a Nathan Peterman pass... it's an attempt that easily gets picked off and taken the other way due to bad execution.  

Edited by MR8
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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I generally agree. However, it would be great to see a monster game once against a good team from Allen.  

 

This feels a little Mark sanchez like.  And that’s fine because I love a playoff run but it makes me nervous long term. 

Josh Allen was a VERY raw prospect coming into the league....he is better this year along with a better team around him.....I expect him to be even better NEXT year.

 

I dont feel he is Sanchez like at all......who ***** the bed at the worst times...Josh Allen is his BEST at the key times in a game.

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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Josh Allen was a VERY raw prospect coming into the league....he is better this year along with a better team around him.....I expect him to be even better NEXT year.

 

I dont feel he is Sanchez like at all......who ***** the bed at the worst times...Josh Allen is his BEST at the key times in a game.

I mean we know how Sanchez turned out but he went 5th overall and had similar numbers to Allen.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SancMa00.htm

 

I think Philly will be a nice test for him.  They are struggling a bit but still have a bunch of talent.

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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean we know how Sanchez turned out but he went 5th overall and had similar numbers to Allen.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SancMa00.htm

 

I think Philly will be a nice test for him.  They are struggling a bit but still have a bunch of talent.

The Titans were not a good test for him?  That is a VERY solid defense

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4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Josh Allen was a VERY raw prospect coming into the league....he is better this year along with a better team around him.....I expect him to be even better NEXT year.

 

I dont feel he is Sanchez like at all......who ***** the bed at the worst times...Josh Allen is his BEST at the key times in a game.

I feel like the "he is raw" is a cop out. We see guys all the time come out of nowhere with a huge game. Just look at Kyle Allen who in his first game threw for more yards and TD's in a game than our Allen has.

 

Allen has yet to do that. He has had chances but he has trouble playing a complete game thus far. That does not mean he wont. But no excuses, he just hasnt done it yet. 

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3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

The Titans were not a good test for him?  That is a VERY solid defense

We scored 14 points. 

1 minute ago, ngbills said:

I feel like the "he is raw" is a cop out. We see guys all the time come out of nowhere with a huge game. Just look at Kyle Allen who in his first game threw for more yards and TD's in a game than our Allen has.

 

Allen has yet to do that. He has had chances but he has trouble playing a complete game thus far. That does not mean he wont. But no excuses, he just hasnt done it yet. 

Yup and that’s kinda my point.  I forgot the undrafted guy last year from SF who would have monster games last year.  Why can’t the highest drafted guy in Bills history?

 

and I get it. We’re winning.  I just want to see a complete game from our potential franchise qb.

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Just now, ngbills said:

I feel like the "he is raw" is a cop out. We see guys all the time come out of nowhere with a huge game. Just look at Kyle Allen who in his first game threw for more yards and TD's in a game than our Allen has.

 

Allen has yet to do that. He has had chances but he has trouble playing a complete game thus far. That does not mean he wont. But no excuses, he just hasnt done it yet. 

QBs mature at different progressions......

 

And if you cannot see the improvements in his game even from year 1 I dont know what to tell you....its there and verifiable both statistically and visably

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4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We scored 14 points. 

 

We scored 7 more than they did

 

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I generally agree. However, it would be great to see a monster game once against a good team from Allen.  

This feels a little Mark sanchez like.  And that’s fine because I love a playoff run but it makes me nervous long term. 

 

Why do you feel Allen is "Mark Sanchez like"?  I don't see the resemblance at all.

But in order to discuss, I need to understand what you see as the relevant factors of resemblence.

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3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

We scored 14 points. 

Yup and that’s kinda my point.  I forgot the undrafted guy last year from SF who would have monster games last year.  Why can’t the highest drafted guy in Bills history?

 

and I get it. We’re winning.  I just want to see a complete game from our potential franchise qb.

Why is it so hard to understand that it is not just Josh Allen here.....it is

 

The fact that our defense holds everyone down

10 new starters on offense

And then it is of course because of turnovers

 

We also still have pass catchers DROPPING TOUCHDOWN passes

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We scored 7 more than they did

 

 

Why do you feel Allen is "Mark Sanchez like"?  I don't see the resemblance at all.

But in order to discuss, I need to understand what you see as the relevant factors of resemblence.

High pick qb, playing on a team with a great defense, and winning games.  Jets fans would just say he wins but ignore the overwhelming evidence that he was along for the ride.  He would have “comebacks” but it would beecause he was terrible all game and the defense kept it close. 

 

Long way way to go to see that for Allen and I think he is more physically gifted. 

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7 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Why is it so hard to understand that it is not just Josh Allen here.....it is

 

The fact that our defense holds everyone down

10 new starters on offense

And then it is of course because of turnovers

 

We also still have pass catchers DROPPING TOUCHDOWN passes

 

 

And Josh Allen playing inconsistently. We should all hope this is not his ceiling. This defense will not sustain this level of play every game and for years to come. In many ways this team is winning despite Allen not because Allen. They would likely have the same outcomes and maybe actually have won the NE game if we had Tyrod Taylor level play thus far. That was not good enough and either should this version of Josh Allen. We have him because the hope is he continue to develop. I can guarantee you the coaches are not pleased and want more from him. No question. 

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10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Why is it so hard to understand that it is not just Josh Allen here.....it is

 

The fact that our defense holds everyone down

10 new starters on offense

And then it is of course because of turnovers

 

We also still have pass catchers DROPPING TOUCHDOWN passes

 

 

I mean this honestly. When will allowed to want more from Allen?  Am I bad fan because I want our highest drafted qb to have more tds than ints?

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Just now, ngbills said:

And Josh Allen playing inconsistently. We should all hope this is not his ceiling. This defense will not sustain this level of play every game and for years to come. In many ways this team is winning despite Allen not because Allen. They would likely have the same outcomes and maybe actually have won the NE game if we had Tyrod Taylor level play thus far. That was not good enough and either should this version of Josh Allen. We have him because the hope is he continue to develop. I can guarantee you the coaches are not pleased and want more from him. No question. 

OMFG

 

All you can ask for is playing well enough to win while showing improvement year to year....its called developing a QB (which is happening)

 

if it makes you feel better to cry over other teams toys...have at it

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I mean this honestly. When will allowed to want more from Allen?  Am I bad fan because I want our highest drafted qb to have more tds than ints?

No you are not a bad fan for wanting it

 

As long as you recognize that the arrow is pointing up and that it is journey to develop a QB like this

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20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

QBs mature at different progressions......

 

And if you cannot see the improvements in his game even from year 1 I dont know what to tell you....its there and verifiable both statistically and visably

And this is what I always worried about with Allen. We are just going to keep hearing about raw he is and how he needs a little more time. 

 

Ive grown to really like how he carries himself and he has shown some progression in the short game.  But he is so inconsistent and I just hope that’s not going to be his whole career. 

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This does support the argument that those who have posted if Allen's a bust McD and Beane should be fired for wasting a high pick.  The rate of success with QB's where ever they are drafted is very low.  If it turns out Oliver or Edmunds, or Tre are busts then yes, but faulting a GM for picking a bad QB is silly and just setting the team back years again to start over.  There was not a no brainer in the 2017 draft class either.  Both Mayfield and Darnold the two drafted highest did also have question marks about them too.  

 

I do wonder what has happend to Goff though?

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2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

OMFG

 

All you can ask for is playing well enough to win while showing improvement year to year....its called developing a QB (which is happening)

 

if it makes you feel better to cry over other teams toys...have at it

Play well enough to win? Then why not just keep Tyrod or find the most mediocre Qb that will protect the ball?

 

I am not saying we ditch Allen. I just disagree with all the attempts to show he is actually playing great, he is actually better than xyz, this is the plan with him, its WR fault, fill in your excuse here.

 

Yes, it is going to be a development process. Nothing wrong with being honest when the guy struggles. I dont think I have ever "cried over other team toys". 

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4 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

This does support the argument that those who have posted if Allen's a bust McD and Beane should be fired for wasting a high pick.  The rate of success with QB's where ever they are drafted is very low.  If it turns out Oliver or Edmunds, or Tre are busts then yes, but faulting a GM for picking a bad QB is silly and just setting the team back years again to start over.  There was not a no brainer in the 2017 draft class either.  Both Mayfield and Darnold the two drafted highest did also have question marks about them too.  

 

I do wonder what has happend to Goff though?

What happened with Goff is the common misconception about what wins football.  Goff lost some good O linemen and now he is getting more pressure.  

 

I know I’m old fashioned but football starts up front.  Win the battles up front, win the games.

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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

What happened with Goff is the common misconception about what wins football.  Goff lost some good O linemen and now he is getting more pressure.  

 

I know I’m old fashioned but football starts up front.  Win the battles up front, win the games.

 

don't follow other teams that closely, was it due to lack of $$ to pay them or they made some bad cuts?

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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

High pick qb, playing on a team with a great defense, and winning games.  Jets fans would just say he wins but ignore the overwhelming evidence that he was along for the ride.  He would have “comebacks” but it would beecause he was terrible all game and the defense kept it close.

 

OK.    So I'll give you 3 differences:

1) In 4 years playing on the Jets including with solid veteran WRs, a strong run game, and a good OL, Sanchez best completion % was 56%.  His 4 year average was 55%.

     So far this year, Allen has improved from 53% to 63%.  If Allen keeps it up, that's a very significant improvement his 2nd year.

2) Sanchez lacked the athleticism and rushing ability that Allen possesses - he actually was seen as athletic in college, perhaps a knee injury in college put paid to it.

3) Josh Allen seems to be taking a step in his progressions his 2nd year in the pros.  Mark Sanchez was rumored to be struggling with Schottenheimer's playbook in his 3rd season.  Now this may reflect relative experience: Allen played for 3 years in college, where Sanchez chose to declare for the draft after 1 season.  Sanchez did start looking like a real QB in his 5th season, playing for Shurmer in Philly, so there's that. 

 

I don't think the Bills had a great defense last year.  I'd call 18th on points mediocre.  We got blown out in what, 5 games?

 

Has Allen arrived, No.  He has to progress as a QB to show that he's The Man, in particular with "taking what the D is giving him" and protecting the football. 

But is it reasonable to compare him to Sanchez? Also, No.

 

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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

And this is what I always worried about with Allen. We are just going to keep hearing about raw he is and how he needs a little more time. 

 

Ive grown to really like how he carries himself and he has shown some progression in the short game.  But he is so inconsistent and I just hope that’s not going to be his whole career. 

Rushing yards are way down because he is not just taking off out of the pocket at the first sight of trouble and

 

22 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Play well enough to win? Then why not just keep Tyrod or find the most mediocre Qb that will protect the ball?

 

I am not saying we ditch Allen. I just disagree with all the attempts to show he is actually playing great, he is actually better than xyz, this is the plan with him, its WR fault, fill in your excuse here.

 

Yes, it is going to be a development process. Nothing wrong with being honest when the guy struggles. I dont think I have ever "cried over other team toys". 

Josh Allen is a better QB then Tyrod (who I supported)...is playing better......and who has MUCH more upside.

 

Find a way to keep Tyrod in the pocket and we were toast.....Josh can actually throw the ball

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5 hours ago, JoPar_v2 said:

No sorry, but I encourage you to try again. Every borderline insane opinion is not a valid “bills’ fan” let’s go buffalo-approved one just because they try to paint an Allen compliment in through the back door.

Truly his reckoning is upon him. 

It does appear your opinion is something you have grown to believe is fact, and that seems to work for you, and I am happy for you, But still, I digress, Go Bills!!! ?

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I pulled the first 5 years passing statistics of the 30 Quarterbacks drafted since 2010 and put them in a spreadsheet for a statistical look of all the QBs taken there.

So I am going to post some stats that I thought were important but I want to open it up to everyone, lemme know what stats you want, or if you want the spreadsheet I am more than willing to share it.

YEAR 1

I decided to make 6 starts or more their rookie season, it's just under half but enough to get a bit of a look at a QB. If you'd like me to alter the data another way I can... the guys who were weeded out because of insufficient starts: Daniel Jones (4), Tim Tebow (3), Paxton Lynch (2), Johnny Manziel (2), Patrick Mahomes (1), Dwayne Haskins (0), Jake Locker (0)

What I am going to post is the top 10 at each of the following Category with Allen inserted in (If he's not in the top 10), and the Average of all QBs.

Number of Games Started:
 

Ranking Name GS
1 Andrew Luck 16
2 Carson Wentz 16
3 Sam Bradford 16
4 Ryan Tannehill 16
5 Cam Newton 16
6 Jameis Winston 16
7 Robert Griffin III 15
8 Brandon Weeden 15
9 Blaine Gabbert 14
10 Baker Mayfield 13
17 Josh Allen 11
  GROUP AVERAGE 14.9


Win Percentage:
 

Ranking Name GS Wins Losses Win%
1 Lamar Jackson 7 6 1 86%
2 Andrew Luck 16 11 5 69%
3 Robert Griffin III 15 9 6 60%
4 Teddy Bridgewater 12 6 6 50%
5 Deshaun Watson 6 3 3 50%
6 Baker Mayfield 13 6 7 46%
7 Josh Allen 11 5 6 45%
8 Carson Wentz 16 7 9 44%
9 Sam Bradford 16 7 9 44%
10 Ryan Tannehill 16 7 9 44%
  GROUP AVERAGE 12.4 4.9 7.4 39.5%


Completion Percentage: (This one I left the whole list because I was surprised Luck was as low as he was)
 

Ranking Name Cmp%
1 Robert Griffin III 65.6
2 Teddy Bridgewater 64.4
3 Kyler Murray 64.3
4 Baker Mayfield 63.8
5 Carson Wentz 62.4
6 Marcus Mariota 62.2
7 Deshaun Watson 61.8
8 Sam Bradford 60
9 Cam Newton 60
10 Mitchell Trubisky 59.4
11 Blake Bortles 58.9
12 EJ Manuel 58.8
13 Ryan Tannehill 58.3
14 Jameis Winston 58.3
15 Lamar Jackson 58.2
16 Sam Darnold 57.7
17 Brandon Weeden 57.4
18 Josh Rosen 55.2
19 Jared Goff 54.6
20 Christian Ponder 54.3
21 Andrew Luck 54.1
22 Josh Allen 52.8
23 Blaine Gabbert 50.8
  GROUP AVERAGE 59%


Yards:
 

1 Andrew Luck 4374
2 Cam Newton 4051
3 Jameis Winston 4042
4 Carson Wentz 3782
5 Baker Mayfield 3725
6 Sam Bradford 3512
7 Brandon Weeden 3385
8 Ryan Tannehill 3294
9 Robert Griffin III 3200
10 Teddy Bridgewater 2919
11 Blake Bortles 2908
12 Sam Darnold 2865
13 Marcus Mariota 2818
14 Josh Rosen 2278
15 Blaine Gabbert 2214
16 Mitchell Trubisky 2193
17 Josh Allen 2074
18 EJ Manuel 1972
19 Christian Ponder 1853
20 Deshaun Watson 1699
21 Kyler Murray 1664
22 Lamar Jackson 1201
23 Jared Goff 1089
  Group Average 2744



Touch Downs:
 

Ranking Name TD
1 Baker Mayfield 27
2 Andrew Luck 23
3 Jameis Winston 22
4 Cam Newton 21
5 Robert Griffin III 20
6 Marcus Mariota 19
7 Deshaun Watson 19
8 Sam Bradford 18
9 Sam Darnold 17
10 Carson Wentz 16
11 Teddy Bridgewater 14
12 Brandon Weeden 14
13 Christian Ponder 13
14 Ryan Tannehill 12
15 Blaine Gabbert 12
16 Blake Bortles 11
17 EJ Manuel 11
18 Josh Rosen 11
19 Josh Allen 10
20 Kyler Murray 7
21 Mitchell Trubisky 7
22 Lamar Jackson 6
23 Jared Goff 5
  GROUP AVERAGE 14.5


Interceptions:
 

Ranking Name Int
1 Andrew Luck 18
2 Cam Newton 17
3 Brandon Weeden 17
4 Blake Bortles 17
5 Jameis Winston 15
6 Sam Bradford 15
7 Sam Darnold 15
8 Carson Wentz 14
9 Baker Mayfield 14
10 Josh Rosen 14
11 Ryan Tannehill 13
12 Christian Ponder 13
13 Teddy Bridgewater 12
14 Josh Allen 12
15 Blaine Gabbert 11
16 Marcus Mariota 10
17 EJ Manuel 9
18 Deshaun Watson 8
19 Mitchell Trubisky 7
20 Jared Goff 7
21 Robert Griffin III 5
22 Kyler Murray 4
23 Lamar Jackson 3
  Group Average 11.7

I will try and get year 2 done tonight, but definitely tomorrow.

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