THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Let the Games Begin

[NoHuddleKelly12]

6 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Oh they snuck him on IR did they.  As far as the Bills getting rid of Peterman, they had no choice, for the sake of both the team and himself he had to leave, the waters were polluted. I for one hope he succeeds, he is a "good guy" and I believe in redemption.

100% agreed. Would be an all-time comeback story that not even H-wood would dare take on in concept. I'll never forget NP standing up at the podium every week fielding questions from all types, while Bills stars like Shady ducked out with a self-imposed media blackout during the worst stretches of last season while NP was playing. I always appreciated that about NP. Glad the drama is elsewhere now however, like you said.   

[oldmanfan]

As always a nice Shaw column.  It should be an interesting season, with young guys developing on both sides of the ball, and some vets around to help led the way.  People are going to be focused on Allen as the QB, and I only hope folks realize young second year QBs are still going to make mistakes.  As many as last year?  One hopes not as development occurs.  Still, my one wish for the season and the board is that we do not fall into nitpicking every throw Allen makes, or every cutback Singletary makes of every missed tackle of Edmunds as if it means they're a bust, or every great play each makes meaning they are  HOFers.  They're young, the team although spiked with veterans in some areas is still somewhat young at key spots.  Let's look at the totality of things as we go forward. 

[eball]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

As to your first point, I'll admit to being lazy and using a tired cliche to open my piece.   However, there is nothing wrong with using battle as a metaphor for football.  It's been done for decades.  Beyond that, it's a really good metaphor, because there is nothing in real life that more closely approximates war than football.   In fact, that's why a lot of people like watching it - it's a complex contest between two teams involving intense hand-to-hand combat, strategy and the acquisition of territory, which is exactly what war is.   It's a stylized war that my city can excited about when we play some other guy's city.  We can watch it but be spared the actual killing that goes on in war.   

 

The players prepare for games like they prepare for battle.  That's what "putting your game face" on is about.   It's about getting ready emotionally to defeat, within the rules, the guy across the line of scrimmage from you.  We have rules, like "no knives," so the battle happens but without the killing.  

 

George Carlin aptly pointed out that football uses the war jargon regularly.   The bomb, the blitz, contest in the trenches.  What's the highest compliment a player can give to a teammate?  Call him a "warrior."

 

Marv's quote was about what's important in life, and he was correct.  Football isn't important, and war is deadly serious.  But that doesn't mean that the metaphor doesn't work.  The metaphor captures the intensity of football very well.   

 

As for your second point, where is it written, in the Code of Conduct or elsewhere, that we can't discuss next year?  If you think Brandon Beane is not thinking about 2020 and 2021 EVERY DAY, you are sadly mistaken.   Building a football team is a multi-year process, and the process doesn't stop when this year's season begins.  And there ARE indications that next year's talent will be better than this year's talent.   One such indication is how young the team is today.   If there are no new players added to the roster, the team will be better next season simply because many of the current players will be better.   All the young guys have more to learn, and they will. Josh Allen, in particular, will be a better QB in 2020.  In addition, once again the Bills have more than their share of draft picks, and they are in very good salary cap situation, so they will be in position to acquire new players, some of whom will be more talented than the players on the current roster.   Is it possible that won't happen?   Sure, it's possible.  Is it likely?   Not very likely at all.  The Bills will have 53 players in 2020 who are, collectively, more talented than the 53 they have right now. 

 

The Bills don't "need" to win ten or more games.   They don't "need" to do anything, because this is football, not war.  If what you're suggesting is focusing on 2020 takes the focus away from 2019, well, sure, if I'm a coach or a player, my mind has to be 100% on today and this week, and any thought of 2020 is an unhelpful distraction.   But I'm a fan, and if my focus shifts from time to time to 2020, that has absolutely no impact on how the players and coaches perform this week.   

 

Ten wins or more may be some marker that you think is important, and maybe you think that some consequences should befall McDermott or Beane if the team fails to reach that threshold, but that's your marker, not theirs.   However, nothing McDermott, Beane or the Pegulas have said suggests in any way that the Pegulas have set the 2019 bar at 10 wins.   I fully expect that the Pegulas will view 8 or 9 wins as a positive season, assuming they're seeing the right kind of growth and improvement.   

 

With all due respect, @Shaw66, this retort is even better than your original post. 

[Shaw66]

50 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

With all due respect, I'm guessing you've never seen a real two-way live fire.  That being the case, using military terminology is more like hyperbole to get clicks than anything else. 

 

In terms of expectations, I really don't know what to say to the results-optional crowd at this point.  I don't understand why people aren't willing to have big expectations for a team that's been in rebuild mode for 3 off-seasons.  If Buffalo is a 7 to 9 win team this season, how does anyone reconcile this when several NFL franchises have gone from starting a rebuild to going deep into the playoffs in 2-3 seasons?  The only answer is the strategy was too heavy a lift and removing talent to meet the HC's needs was a net loss. 

 

They should be expected to win 10 or more games this deep into the rebuild.  Only certain fans are demanding less results.  I'm sure ownership, GM, HC, players, assistants, and all the way down to the kid who gets the tee after the opening kickoff are expecting playoffs. 

 

As to the military, I get your point and it's completely fair.  I haven't been in combat, and I completely understand that I can't imagine it.   I remember seeing an interview with Spielberg when Saving Private Ryan came out.   He said he spent a long time interviewing DDay vets and studying, and then he created that incredible opening 20 minute scene, recreating the experience.  But then he said, he had to dial it back a bit, because he knew people literally would not be able to stomach sitting through a half hour of what it really was like.  So, yeah, I understand that I don't understand.   Still, understanding that you think it's hyperbole, other than being an inner city cop, I don't think there's much of anything in our society that people do that approaches the tension and desperation of battle as football does.  

 

And I say that without intending to cheapen or demean in any way what real soldiers do and experience.  I'm in awe of what those people do. 

 

As for tolerating an 8-8 or even a 7-9 season, I think you misperceive what's going on with the Bills.  Yes, there are teams that have had successful turn arounds in 2-3 years, but McBeane have been very clear that their objective is NOT to get to the top as fast as possible.   They aren't operating with a model designed to do that, because the race-to-the-top model is a sacrifice-the-future-for-the-present model.  It's a model that says let's go out spend whatever it takes to get the player we need for this season, the player to put us over the top.  

 

What McBeane are trying to do is build a team with sustained, long-term success.   That is, they're trying to succeed like the Patriots have succeeded, to have a team that continues to succeed with the next man up.   McDermott always talks about building it the right way, and by that he means getting players with the right attitude and having them grow.  And then you add players on top of those players and have them compete.   And you keep doing it, and your team keeps getting better.   This the first season where McDermott has a roster full of players chosen in accordance with that philosophy.    So to expect them to be a playoff team this season is to not recognize what they're doing.   They have a very young team, a team that's still learning the NFL ropes.  It's not a team of seasoned veterans.   They need to add another layer of talent, or two layers, to keep upgrading what they're doing.  

 

They aren't building a team that depends on having superior talent across the roster; they're building a team of really good football players who do their jobs all the time.   They're trying to build a team like the Patriots.   

 

They've said repeatedly that it takes longer to build that way, but it's better because it's sustainable.   They are so vocal and so clear about it, it's impossible to think that the Pegulas are not on board with it.   They've sold the Pegulas on the concept that it may be a long process, but it will lead to sustained excellence.   So I have trouble believing that if the team shows good progress but goes 8-8 the Pegulas will pull the plug.   Some fans, apparently like you, who espouse the quick build philosophy might be calling for a change at 8-8, but I doubt the Pegulas will agree with those fans.   

Just now, Shaw66 said:

As to the military, I get your point and it's completely fair.  I haven't been in combat, and I completely understand that I can't imagine it.   I remember seeing an interview with Spielberg when Saving Private Ryan came out.   He said he spent a long time interviewing DDay vets and studying, and then he created that incredible opening 20 minute scene, recreating the experience.  But then he said, he had to dial it back a bit, because he knew people literally would not be able to stomach sitting through a half hour of what it really was like.  So, yeah, I understand that I don't understand.   Still, understanding that you think it's hyperbole, other than being an inner city cop, I don't think there's much of anything in our society that people do that approaches the tension and desperation of battle as football does.  

 

And I say that without intending to cheapen or demean in any way what real soldiers do and experience.  I'm in awe of what those people do. 

 

As for tolerating an 8-8 or even a 7-9 season, I think you misperceive what's going on with the Bills.  Yes, there are teams that have had successful turn arounds in 2-3 years, but McBeane have been very clear that their objective is NOT to get to the top as fast as possible.   They aren't operating with a model designed to do that, because the race-to-the-top model is a sacrifice-the-future-for-the-present model.  It's a model that says let's go out spend whatever it takes to get the player we need for this season, the player to put us over the top.  

 

What McBeane are trying to do is build a team with sustained, long-term success.   That is, they're trying to succeed like the Patriots have succeeded, to have a team that continues to succeed with the next man up.   McDermott always talks about building it the right way, and by that he means getting players with the right attitude and having them grow.  And then you add players on top of those players and have them compete.   And you keep doing it, and your team keeps getting better.   This the first season where McDermott has a roster full of players chosen in accordance with that philosophy.    So to expect them to be a playoff team this season is to not recognize what they're doing.   They have a very young team, a team that's still learning the NFL ropes.  It's not a team of seasoned veterans.   They need to add another layer of talent, or two layers, to keep upgrading what they're doing.  

 

They aren't building a team that depends on having superior talent across the roster; they're building a team of really good football players who do their jobs all the time.   They're trying to build a team like the Patriots.   

 

They've said repeatedly that it takes longer to build that way, but it's better because it's sustainable.   They are so vocal and so clear about it, it's impossible to think that the Pegulas are not on board with it.   They've sold the Pegulas on the concept that it may be a long process, but it will lead to sustained excellence.   So I have trouble believing that if the team shows good progress but goes 8-8 the Pegulas will pull the plug.   Some fans, apparently like you, who espouse the quick build philosophy might be calling for a change at 8-8, but I doubt the Pegulas will agree with those fans.   

Thanks.  BIllsVet is saying some interesting things here.   Obviously, I don't agree, but I enjoy his thoughts.  

[Shaw66]

And, Vet, one more thing.  You say they should be "expected" to win 10 games.   That too misunderstands how McDermott is running the team

 

Players are "expected" to do their jobs, nothing more, nothing less.  They are evaluated on their individual performance, play by play, and they are coached to improve continuously.  They are told that the wins will come when everyone's doing his job, from the coaches on down.  

 

The head coach and GM are evaluated in the same way.   Their performance objectives are not measured in wins and losses (although it's true that at some point they will lose their jobs without wins).   Their performance is measured by the quality of the talent they've acquired and the extent to which those players are doing their jobs.  Those objectives are established each year, and McBeane are measured against them.   Those objectives are established by them in meetings with the Pegulas, and as I said, I'm sure the Pegulas are on board with this system.  At some point, the Pegulas are going to say to McBeane "we need more wins." and McBeane will make their case about why the process is still on track and they should be patient.  McBeane will either win that argument and continue or lose it and have one more year to achieve a designated win total in the way you suggest.   I am certain this is NOT the year McBeane have a win-or-else ultimatum.  

[BillsVet]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And, Vet, one more thing.  You say they should be "expected" to win 10 games.   That too misunderstands how McDermott is running the team

 

Players are "expected" to do their jobs, nothing more, nothing less.  They are evaluated on their individual performance, play by play, and they are coached to improve continuously.  They are told that the wins will come when everyone's doing his job, from the coaches on down.  

 

The head coach and GM are evaluated in the same way.   Their performance objectives are not measured in wins and losses (although it's true that at some point they will lose their jobs without wins).   Their performance is measured by the quality of the talent they've acquired and the extent to which those players are doing their jobs.  Those objectives are established each year, and McBeane are measured against them.   Those objectives are established by them in meetings with the Pegulas, and as I said, I'm sure the Pegulas are on board with this system.  At some point, the Pegulas are going to say to McBeane "we need more wins." and McBeane will make their case about why the process is still on track and they should be patient.  McBeane will either win that argument and continue or lose it and have one more year to achieve a designated win total in the way you suggest.   I am certain this is NOT the year McBeane have a win-or-else ultimatum.  

 

No, the only performance metric is the win column.  That's it.  Not even profitability and culture supersede how the team does on the field and while McBeane aren't on the hot-seat in 2019, not making the playoffs puts them squarely on it for 2020.     

 

McBeane set the bar pretty high after they did a complete tear-down of the roster in 2017 and 2018. You simply don't go through what the fan base went through in years 1 and 2 for a 7-9 win season in year 3.   The main issue is that for whatever reason, some are a lot more accepting of mediocre to average football.  It's like a fan stockholm syndrome. 

 

54 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

What McBeane are trying to do is build a team with sustained, long-term success.   That is, they're trying to succeed like the Patriots have succeeded, to have a team that continues to succeed with the next man up.   McDermott always talks about building it the right way, and by that he means getting players with the right attitude and having them grow.  And then you add players on top of those players and have them compete.   And you keep doing it, and your team keeps getting better.   This the first season where McDermott has a roster full of players chosen in accordance with that philosophy.    So to expect them to be a playoff team this season is to not recognize what they're doing.   They have a very young team, a team that's still learning the NFL ropes.  It's not a team of seasoned veterans.   They need to add another layer of talent, or two layers, to keep upgrading what they're doing.  

 

They aren't building a team that depends on having superior talent across the roster; they're building a team of really good football players who do their jobs all the time.   They're trying to build a team like the Patriots.   

 

They've said repeatedly that it takes longer to build that way, but it's better because it's sustainable.   They are so vocal and so clear about it, it's impossible to think that the Pegulas are not on board with it.   They've sold the Pegulas on the concept that it may be a long process, but it will lead to sustained excellence.   So I have trouble believing that if the team shows good progress but goes 8-8 the Pegulas will pull the plug.   Some fans, apparently like you, who espouse the quick build philosophy might be calling for a change at 8-8, but I doubt the Pegulas will agree with those fans.  

 

You win in the NFL by having elite talent at the major positions and winning those match-up battles.  Average talent does not win enough in the regular season, even those who fit the HC's culture.   

 

As for the sustainability of rebuilding, would you say the 2-3 years it took the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seattle to rebuild his past decade were not for the long haul as well?  A longer rebuild may portend one that was poorly conceived and eventually ineffective.  After all, some teams have gone about rebuilding and topped out at average. 

[Say When...]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

And, Vet, one more thing.  You say they should be "expected" to win 10 games.   That too misunderstands how McDermott is running the team

 

Players are "expected" to do their jobs, nothing more, nothing less.  They are evaluated on their individual performance, play by play, and they are coached to improve continuously.  They are told that the wins will come when everyone's doing his job, from the coaches on down.  

 

The head coach and GM are evaluated in the same way.   Their performance objectives are not measured in wins and losses (although it's true that at some point they will lose their jobs without wins).   Their performance is measured by the quality of the talent they've acquired and the extent to which those players are doing their jobs.  Those objectives are established each year, and McBeane are measured against them.   Those objectives are established by them in meetings with the Pegulas, and as I said, I'm sure the Pegulas are on board with this system.  At some point, the Pegulas are going to say to McBeane "we need more wins." and McBeane will make their case about why the process is still on track and they should be patient.  McBeane will either win that argument and continue or lose it and have one more year to achieve a designated win total in the way you suggest.   I am certain this is NOT the year McBeane have a win-or-else ultimatum.  

 

totally in agreement with this, very well said.

 

IMO this is our 'cusp' year; next year the win expectations are realized and i think Beane is strategically moving down that path as well. Look at the "90mm next year what do we do with it?" thread, with the exceptions of a couple, we're pretty set for those "last couple of pieces" that we hopefully learn from this year.

 

if we somehow bring it together this year than that's the icing...

[Figster]

14 hours ago, BillsVet said:

There's no need to employ phrases like when the "shooting starts" to describe a team's season.  I laugh when fans start talking about football as a battle because real shooting isn't anything like football.  This reminds me of a Marv Levy quote when someone asked him (and I'm paraphrasing) if a certain game was must-win.  Marv responded by saying no, World War II was a must-win.  

 

 

Second, anyone who mentions 2020 at this point is hedging their bets and not fully confident the off-season was productive enough.  All commentary will stop short of having a defined expectation as a result.  

 

Additionally, there is no indication at this early point what the talent level will be next year...in large part because players are constantly leaving, injured, and/or aging.  

 

Bottom line, the Bills need to be in the discussion to win the division this year, and short of that, win 10 or more games.     

 

Jim "Machine gun" Kelly and Thurmal Warfare beg to differ,

 

Are we going to remove the description gunslinger while we're at it?

 

 

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well done Shaw. I absolutely love the line: Get Better or Get Beat. That pretty much sums it up!

Go Bills

Like a Clint Eastwood western, where you get rich or get killed.  Shaw you write a good line, always look forward to your posts.

 

Go Bills!!!

[Logic]

Thanks for the post.

Me? I'm out of poetic verbiage. I can no longer pontificate.

I'm just excited. I'm optimistic. I'm nervous. 

Five more days.

 

[BillsVet]

7 minutes ago, Figster said:

Jim "Machine gun" Kelly and Thurmal Warfare beg to differ,

 

Are we going to remove the description gunslinger while we're at it?

 

Now tell me you have some friends who participated in Wild West shoot-outs back in the day.

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

You win in the NFL by having elite talent at the major positions and winning those match-up battles.  Average talent does not win enough in the regular season, even those who fit the HC's culture.   

 

As for the sustainability of rebuilding, would you say the 2-3 years it took the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seattle to rebuild his past decade were not for the long haul as well?  A longer rebuild may portend one that was poorly conceived and eventually ineffective.  After all, some teams have gone about rebuilding and topped out at average. 

Say hello to Bill Belichick.   He wins with an elite quarterback and a shutdown corner, period.  The rest is window dressing.  It's average talent, because he never is drafting in a position to bet elite talent.  

 

I'm not telling you what McBeane are doing is the right way or the only way.   I'm telling what it is that they're doing and I expect will happen.   You may think there's a different way or a better way, and that's fine, but your way is not what is happening at One Bills Drive.   It's foolish to apply your expectations based on how you would rebuild to a system that is rebuilding in a different way.  

8 minutes ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the post.

Me? I'm out of poetic verbiage. I can no longer pontificate.

I'm just excited. I'm optimistic. I'm nervous. 

Five more days.

 

Nervous is the word.

 

I was optimistic a month ago.   Not now.   I can see too many things that can go wrong.    I can see how it could be beautiful, how it SHOULD be.   But I'm nervous.  

[Figster]

4 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Now tell me you have some friends who participated in Wild West shoot-outs back in the day.

I'm telling you when Mahomes plays Brady we're in for a shootout.

 

Back in the day it was Kelly and Marino...

[BillsVet]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Say hello to Bill Belichick.   He wins with an elite quarterback and a shutdown corner, period.  The rest is window dressing.  It's average talent, because he never is drafting in a position to bet elite talent.  

 

I'm not telling you what McBeane are doing is the right way or the only way.   I'm telling what it is that they're doing and I expect will happen.   You may think there's a different way or a better way, and that's fine, but your way is not what is happening at One Bills Drive.   It's foolish to apply your expectations based on how you would rebuild to a system that is rebuilding in a different way. 

 

Yes, every coach with a stud QB is on the Bill Belichick level.  The conflations on here get more wild every year.

 

From 2000-present, New England has had 31 players (excluding special teams and Brady) earn 60 Pro Bowl selections.  15 players were 1st team All-Pros a combined 20 times. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/all-pros.htm

 

And for the record, how would you define "average talent?"

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

Nervous is the word.

 

I was optimistic a month ago.   Not now.   I can see too many things that can go wrong.    I can see how it could be beautiful, how it SHOULD be.   But I'm nervous.  

I'm terribly curious to know your feelings on the release of LeSean McCoy. Specifically, do you think the 2019 Buffalo Bills are better, worse, or not materially much different without McCoy in the fold than with him?

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

As for the sustainability of rebuilding, would you say the 2-3 years it took the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seattle to rebuild his past decade were not for the long haul as well?

 

The Rams have had the same GM since 2012. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. Since his splurge in free agency they now have a 1-2 year window before the seams fall apart. Not sure how effective that strategy will be.

 

Andy Reid has been with the Chiefs since 2013. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. If Mahomes keeps it up they'll be set for the long haul no matter what happens outside of him. Only took 6 years to get there.

 

Eagles have had the same GM since 2010. Took him 8 years to win the Super Bowl. That's quite a long rebuild and there were plenty of missteps along the way.

 

Pete Carroll was hired in 2010. He went 7-9 his first 2 years before Russell Wilson exploded onto the scene. Made it to the playoffs in year 3 and won the Super Bowl year 4.

 

So not really sure where you got the idea that good rebuilds take 2-3 years. They normally take longer than that to find real success. Personally I will be disappointed if the Bills end up less than 9-7 but if you're expecting them to complete for a Super Bowl this year they're a year or two off from that stage of the rebuild.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

No, the only performance metric is the win column.  That's it.  Not even profitability and culture supersede how the team does on the field and while McBeane aren't on the hot-seat in 2019, not making the playoffs puts them squarely on it for 2020.     

 

McBeane set the bar pretty high after they did a complete tear-down of the roster in 2017 and 2018. You simply don't go through what the fan base went through in years 1 and 2 for a 7-9 win season in year 3.   The main issue is that for whatever reason, some are a lot more accepting of mediocre to average football.  It's like a fan stockholm syndrome. 

 

 

You win in the NFL by having elite talent at the major positions and winning those match-up battles.  Average talent does not win enough in the regular season, even those who fit the HC's culture.   

 

As for the sustainability of rebuilding, would you say the 2-3 years it took the Rams, Chiefs, Eagles, and Seattle to rebuild his past decade were not for the long haul as well?  A longer rebuild may portend one that was poorly conceived and eventually ineffective.  After all, some teams have gone about rebuilding and topped out at average. 

They put the fan base through 1 poor season, while breaking in a rookie Qb.  Year 1 he made the playoffs.  He's shown tha ability to create a team, and on defense get the absolute best out of his personal. 

 

Going into year 2 the team lacked franchise players.  They went super talented and young.  Allen and Edmunds are set up to be the cornerstones of the franchise. Last year was a step backwards with the hope of taking 2 steps forward.  

 

This year you can see the offense being shaped around Allen.  The Defense looks poised to go from under the radar to tops of the league.  Hope's are high.  I like what Allen's shown in December.  He expands on that Buffalo is a contender.  

[BillsVet]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Rams have had the same GM since 2012. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. Since his splurge in free agency they now have a 1-2 year window before the seams fall apart. Not sure how effective that strategy will be.

 

Andy Reid has been with the Chiefs since 2013. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. If Mahomes keeps it up they'll be set for the long haul no matter what happens outside of him. Only took 6 years to get there.

 

Eagles have had the same GM since 2010. Took him 8 years to win the Super Bowl. That's quite a long rebuild and there were plenty of missteps along the way.

 

Pete Carroll was hired in 2010. He went 7-9 his first 2 years before Russell Wilson exploded onto the scene. Made it to the playoffs in year 3 and won the Super Bowl year 4.

 

So not really sure where you got the idea that good rebuilds take 2-3 years. They normally take longer than that to find real success. Personally I will be disappointed if the Bills end up less than 9-7 but if you're expecting them to complete for a Super Bowl this year they're a year or two off from that stage of the rebuild.

 

This is some major league quibbling. 

 

4 teams each hired a new HC.  Each HC acquired a new QB within those first three seasons on the job.  Each had multiple playoff appearances AND won a post-season game in those first 3 seasons.  Each have sustained their winning and/or show no signs of a steep decline.    

 

Yet, Buffalo should not be expected to live up to this level after year 3. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I'm terribly curious to know your feelings on the release of LeSean McCoy. Specifically, do you think the 2019 Buffalo Bills are better, worse, or not materially much different without McCoy in the fold than with him?

Not much different.  Worse without him, to be sure, but not much different and not so much that it will matter, unless, of course, there's an injury or two.  

 

As soon as I saw Singletary's college highlights, I thought his running style was very much like Shady's - quick burst into the hole, great change of direction, lacking in top-end speed.  I think he could easily be a 1000-yard back in a good rushing offense.   

 

Shady was a leader, but the coaches quickly figured out that Gore could fill that role.  And Gore gives them a better 1-2 combination than Singletary and Shady.   

 

There was at least a question about how Shady would handle, personally, a running back by committee approach.   As the preseason wore on it became clear that Yeldon could contribute, so I think the coaches realized they could spread the ball carrying load among three backs and make it work.   Shady's always been the workhouse back, and he might not have fit in so well. 

 

Plus, they make these decisions with an eye toward the future, and they clearly seem to have decided that there's a future for Singletary.   

 

Saving the $6 million was a factor, but I doubt it was the driving consideration.

 

More generally, I'll say what I always say about this stuff.  Except for QB, no individual position player is all that important.   There are maybe a half-dozen non-quarterbacks, maybe a dozen, in the league whose presence on the field changes the outcome of games, and those guys are mostly on defense.  Actually, I can see Edmunds becoming one of those.  It truly is a team game, which is the message that McDermott preaches.   I heard Colin Cowherd say one day that he asked a Las Vegas odds maker how much difference it would make in a Houston Texans point spread if JJ Watt wasn't going to play.   The odds maker said half a point.   This is a one or two time NFL defensive player of the year, and he makes half a point difference in the spread.   Now, I loved LeSean, but he couldn't impact a game like JJ Watt can.  

 

I have a pretty simple view of the game.   It's all about the coach first, and the QB second.  Everything else a good coach can work around.   Shady was just another player.  Special, fun to watch, tough on third down and could make big plays, maybe better than Singletary, but absent injuries, I doubt that the Bills will lose a game this season that they would have won with Shady in the lineup.  

[mead107]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Not much different.  Worse without him, to be sure, but not much different and not so much that it will matter, unless, of course, there's an injury or two.  

 

As soon as I saw Singletary's college highlights, I thought his running style was very much like Shady's - quick burst into the hole, great change of direction, lacking in top-end speed.  I think he could easily be a 1000-yard back in a good rushing offense.   

 

Shady was a leader, but the coaches quickly figured out that Gore could fill that role.  And Gore gives them a better 1-2 combination than Singletary and Shady.   

 

There was at least a question about how Shady would handle, personally, a running back by committee approach.   As the preseason wore on it became clear that Yeldon could contribute, so I think the coaches realized they could spread the ball carrying load among three backs and make it work.   Shady's always been the workhouse back, and he might not have fit in so well. 

 

Plus, they make these decisions with an eye toward the future, and they clearly seem to have decided that there's a future for Singletary.   

 

Saving the $6 million was a factor, but I doubt it was the driving consideration.

 

More generally, I'll say what I always say about this stuff.  Except for QB, no individual position player is all that important.   There are maybe a half-dozen non-quarterbacks, maybe a dozen, in the league whose presence on the field changes the outcome of games, and those guys are mostly on defense.  Actually, I can see Edmunds becoming one of those.  It truly is a team game, which is the message that McDermott preaches.   I heard Colin Cowherd say one day that he asked a Las Vegas odds maker how much difference it would make in a Houston Texans point spread if JJ Watt wasn't going to play.   The odds maker said half a point.   This is a one or two time NFL defensive player of the year, and he makes half a point difference in the spread.   Now, I loved LeSean, but he couldn't impact a game like JJ Watt can.  

 

I have a pretty simple view of the game.   It's all about the coach first, and the QB second.  Everything else a good coach can work around.   Shady was just another player.  Special, fun to watch, tough on third down and could make big plays, maybe better than Singletary, but absent injuries, I doubt that the Bills will lose a game this season that they would have won with Shady in the lineup.  

Really do like all your post.  ??????

keep up the great work. 

 

Thank you 

[Heitz]

4 minutes ago, mead107 said:

Really do like all your post.  ??????

keep up the great work. 

 

Thank you 

 

Yeah, what he said!

 

 

[Shaw66]

Thanks.  I appreciate the kind words.

 

Very few of my friends are serious football fans.   They think I'm crazy.  

[stuvian]

I am not so much excited by our roster as I am about the change in organizational culture. We've had a lot of talent pass through the red, white and blue (except at QB) through the decade of fail. This regime is very quick to send anyone packing who plays into a culture of mediocrity whether it's a coordinator, player, coach or strength and conditioning trainer. There is an urgency to this regime that I like. 

 

We were a country club for soon to be retired vets for way too long. That won't cut it with this front office. I really believe that McDermott knows how to instill a winning culture. 

 

I don't fully know whether Josh Allen is the second coming of Matt Ryan or Ryan Leaf but I do know that I trust the process that led to our selecting him. I don't think we'll win any games easily and I like it that way. This team needs to learn how to win by methods other than turtle ball. We need to earn our confidence and our victories by grinding out character wins. 

 

I think we'll see evidence of it this year. 

[LSHMEAB]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Say hello to Bill Belichick.   He wins with an elite quarterback and a shutdown corner, period.  The rest is window dressing.  It's average talent, because he never is drafting in a position to bet elite talent.   

Belichick won a SB in his second season in NE with a first year QB. I don't see the analogy there my friend.

 

I think what BillsVet is driving at is that the playoffs are generally the expectation for a regime in year 3. I get it. Part of the model is long term success and more incremental results. But it's still year 3 and they do have a solid defense and a QB going into his second season with same coordinator. I don't quite understand how you can expect/accept mediocre results and still be brimming with confidence. You've done well explaining that position. I just don't happen to agree with it. Win games and I'm good.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Belichick won a SB in his second :season in NE with a first year QB. I don't see the analogy there my friend.

 

I think what BillsVet is driving at is that the playoffs are generally the expectation for a regime in year 3. I get it. Part of the model is long term success and more incremental results. But it's still year 3 and they do have a solid defense and a QB going into his second season with same coordinator. I don't quite understand how you can expect/accept mediocre results and still be brimming with confidence. You've done well explaining that position. I just don't happen to agree with it. Win games and I'm good.

Yes, we do disagree.    

 

I missed where I said that Belichick took many years to build the Patriots.   What McBeane have said all along is that they're trying to build a team that will have sustained, long-term success.  What I've said, not McBeane, is that what sustained long-term success looks like is what the Patriots have - winning over a long period of time, despite poor draft position and repeated roster turnover.  That's the objective.   No one said that it was going to be done in two years, and it doesn't make sense to say that it has to be done on the same schedule that Belichick followed.   

 

In fact, McBeane have been very clear: they were surprised to make the playoffs in year one, they told us the team would be worse in year two, the team would begin showing the results of their efforts in year three.  They've said that.  They also said the year three could be but probably wouldn't be the year where they first start having the kind of success they want to have. 

 

Three years ago the Bills could have hired a head coach who said "in three years I'll give you what the Packers have, what the Saints have, what the Chiefs have."  Instead, they hired a head coach who said "in five or six years I'll give you what the Patriots have."  If it had been my choice, I would have said give me what the Patriots have, and that's the choice the Pegulas made.  

 

One reason I'm so excited about the team is that I've seen McBeane do exactly what they said.   I didn't understand fully at first what that would like, but I do now.   I see now what they meant about getting guys with a certain set of personal behavioral characteristics and then building from there.   McDermott began teaching his system and his values, spending the first two seasons weeding out all the guys who did fit the system and bringing in new guys who looked like they WOULD fit the system.  One aspect of the system is that McDermott wants guys who develop what he believes are the right habits, and that leads to the conclusion that you get your talent from the draft not free agency, because free agents already have developed their professional habits.  It's tougher to find the right fit in those guys.   If you're building through the draft, you can train them be how you want them to be, but it takes longer.   

 

Now, I can see, we all can see if we look, that he's doing exactly what he said he was going to do, and we can see how it works.  We can see the team coming together, Poyer and Hyde to jump start the defensive philosophy and then White and MIlano, then Edmunds and Allen and Ford and Dawkins and Singletary and Jones and Foster and all these Johnson guys and Joseph.   It's easy to see what they're doing.   It's driven by finding good football players who will learn their jobs and commit to doing it well, which is exactly what Belichick has and has had for nearly 20 years.   

 

You say I'm accepting mediocrity.  I'm not, and neither is McDermott.  What McDermott expects, and what I understand and accept, is that he starts with men with the right mental makeup and he teaches them, year after year, to be a team that wins.   Along the way he finds men with the right mental makeup who are physically more gifted than some whom he already has, and so he improves the talent.  McDermott believes that when everyone in the organization is totally committed to his core concepts - competition, continuous improvement, reduction of mistakes and when the talent gets to the level it needs to be, the team will win.  His coaching technique is driven by those concepts.   He won't accept mediocrity in those categories - in those categories he expects excellence.  His belief is that when that culture is fully implemented, the wins will follow.   

 

I now understand what he is doing, and I have seen how it works over two seasons and a third preseason.  I believe it makes sense, because I've watched the team get younger AND get better.   I can see that the team isn't done getting better.   And because everything McBeane have been saying about how they were going to do this has turned out to be accurate, I'm now inclined to trust them when they said, as they've said from the beginning, that this process was not going to be quick.   I'm okay with that because I now can see what's happening.  I'm looking at a team that is going to lose Lorenzo Alexander next year and (if the previous two years is any example) add one or two stud rookies and some sleeper rookie free agents.   I'm looking at a team whose QB and whose middle linebacker, the two linchpins, are still climbing the NFL learning curve.   I can see now that this IS a long process, but one that makes sense. 

 

Yes, Belichick did it in two years.  He did it with a second year QB, and he did it by adding eight or nine cast off free agents that year, guys who were marginal starters elsewhere.  The rest of the league hardly noticed.   Well, McDermott has his second year QB, and he has a rebuilt offense, rebuilt largely with castoffs (several linemen, Brown, Gore, Yeldon), so maybe McDermott will win the Super Bowl in two years.  McBeane have always said that success will come and probably will come over time but may come more quickly.  Everyone will be pleasantly surprised if it comes more quickly.  But they've always thought, because they've regularly said in so many words, that 2020, 2021, 2022 more likely would be the years when truly great expectations would first be justified.   

 

When you say playoffs is generally the expectation in three years, I get what you're saying.   What I'm saying is that it's foolish to apply that standard (which may or may not be true) to a situation when the coach and and GM have told us from the very beginning that it would take longer than three years.   They TOLD us they would build a very good team and that it would take longer than three years.   Now they're two and a half years into the process, it's completely clear that this team has gotten better at its very core, in all of the fundamental things it does, that it's poised to have success and that the building process will continue for another year or two.  Why should anyone apply an arbitrary three-year standard under those circumstances?

 

I'm completely prepared to accept what you call mediocrity (which is mediocrity in the win-loss column) for another year, because long-term success in the win-loss column comes only after first developing exceptional (and not mediocre) behaviors across the entire organization.  McBeane told me to expect it would take more than three years, and McBeane have so far been very good at delivering what they say they're going to deliver.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, stuvian said:

I am not so much excited by our roster as I am about the change in organizational culture. We've had a lot of talent pass through the red, white and blue (except at QB) through the decade of fail. This regime is very quick to send anyone packing who plays into a culture of mediocrity whether it's a coordinator, player, coach or strength and conditioning trainer. There is an urgency to this regime that I like. 

 

We were a country club for soon to be retired vets for way too long. That won't cut it with this front office. I really believe that McDermott knows how to instill a winning culture. 

 

I don't fully know whether Josh Allen is the second coming of Matt Ryan or Ryan Leaf but I do know that I trust the process that led to our selecting him. I don't think we'll win any games easily and I like it that way. This team needs to learn how to win by methods other than turtle ball. We need to earn our confidence and our victories by grinding out character wins. 

 

I think we'll see evidence of it this year. 

And I think this is exactly correct.   I actually think Josh Allen will be much better than Matt Ryan, but beside that, I think what you've said fits nicely with what I just said.  These things you describe are happening, they've been happening for two and a half years, and we can see them working.  

 

There IS a sense of urgency, but the urgency is to do the right thing today.   There's a maniacal focus on getting better today; McBeane operate with the supreme confidence that if they do the right thing today and every day, the wins will come in time.  

 

And you're right, the team is being designed not be a blow-out winner, not to have the greatest show on turf, but to win soundly week after week.   They aren't going to play turtle ball.  They are going to relentlessly grind opponents into the ground with sustained excellence.   Just like, umm, New England.  

 

And I agree, we'll see evidence of all of this this year.   Will that translate into 10 wins?  Maybe.   But if it doesn't, I won't mind so long there is good evidence that this team is improving and the process is continuing to drive the improvement.  

 

 

By the way, people shouldn't lose sight of the fact that this process applies equally to coaches as to players.   McBeane have said that the coaches, including McDermott, are evaluated and driven to improve, just like players.  I expect Daboll to get better, I expect McD's game management, including clock management and in-game decision making to get better.   He won't tell us publicly, but I am certain that they've developed techniques and McD has learned things to be better in those areas.  

 

I'm excited. 

[BillsVet]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I missed where I said that Belichick took many years to build the Patriots.   What McBeane have said all along is that they're trying to build a team that will have sustained, long-term success.  What I've said, not McBeane, is that what sustained long-term success looks like is what the Patriots have - winning over a long period of time, despite poor draft position and repeated roster turnover.  That's the objective.   No one said that it was going to be done in two years, and it doesn't make sense to say that it has to be done on the same schedule that Belichick followed.   

 

In fact, McBeane have been very clear: they were surprised to make the playoffs in year one, they told us the team would be worse in year two, the team would begin showing the results of their efforts in year three.  They've said that.  They also said the year three could be but probably wouldn't be the year where they first start having the kind of success they want to have. 

 

Three years ago the Bills could have hired a head coach who said "in three years I'll give you what the Packers have, what the Saints have, what the Chiefs have."  Instead, they hired a head coach who said "in five or six years I'll give you what the Patriots have."  If it had been my choice, I would have said give me what the Patriots have, and that's the choice the Pegulas made.  

 

One reason I'm so excited about the team is that I've seen McBeane do exactly what they said.   I didn't understand fully at first what that would like, but I do now.   I see now what they meant about getting guys with a certain set of personal behavioral characteristics and then building from there.   McDermott began teaching his system and his values, spending the first two seasons weeding out all the guys who did fit the system and bringing in new guys who looked like they WOULD fit the system.  One aspect of the system is that McDermott wants guys who develop what he believes are the right habits, and that leads to the conclusion that you get your talent from the draft not free agency, because free agents already have developed their professional habits.  It's tougher to find the right fit in those guys.   If you're building through the draft, you can train them be how you want them to be, but it takes longer.   

 

Now, I can see, we all can see if we look, that he's doing exactly what he said he was going to do, and we can see how it works.  We can see the team coming together, Poyer and Hyde to jump start the defensive philosophy and then White and MIlano, then Edmunds and Allen and Ford and Dawkins and Singletary and Jones and Foster and all these Johnson guys and Joseph.   It's easy to see what they're doing.   It's driven by finding good football players who will learn their jobs and commit to doing it well, which is exactly what Belichick has and has had for nearly 20 years.   

 

You say I'm accepting mediocrity.  I'm not, and neither is McDermott.  What McDermott expects, and what I understand and accept, is that he starts with men with the right mental makeup and he teaches them, year after year, to be a team that wins.   Along the way he finds men with the right mental makeup who are physically more gifted than some whom he already has, and so he improves the talent.  McDermott believes that when everyone in the organization is totally committed to his core concepts - competition, continuous improvement, reduction of mistakes and when the talent gets to the level it needs to be, the team will win.  His coaching technique is driven by those concepts.   He won't accept mediocrity in those categories - in those categories he expects excellence.  His belief is that when that culture is fully implemented, the wins will follow.   

 

I now understand what he is doing, and I have seen how it works over two seasons and a third preseason.  I believe it makes sense, because I've watched the team get younger AND get better.   I can see that the team isn't done getting better.   And because everything McBeane have been saying about how they were going to do this has turned out to be accurate, I'm now inclined to trust them when they said, as they've said from the beginning, that this process was not going to be quick.   I'm okay with that because I now can see what's happening.  I'm looking at a team that is going to lose Lorenzo Alexander next year and (if the previous two years is any example) add one or two stud rookies and some sleeper rookie free agents.   I'm looking at a team whose QB and whose middle linebacker, the two linchpins, are still climbing the NFL learning curve.   I can see now that this IS a long process, but one that makes sense. 

 

Yes, Belichick did it in two years.  He did it with a second year QB, and he did it by adding eight or nine cast off free agents that year, guys who were marginal starters elsewhere.  The rest of the league hardly noticed.   Well, McDermott has his second year QB, and he has a rebuilt offense, rebuilt largely with castoffs (several linemen, Brown, Gore, Yeldon), so maybe McDermott will win the Super Bowl in two years.  McBeane have always said that success will come and probably will come over time but may come more quickly.  Everyone will be pleasantly surprised if it comes more quickly.  But they've always thought, because they've regularly said in so many words, that 2020, 2021, 2022 more likely would be the years when truly great expectations would first be justified.   

 

When you say playoffs is generally the expectation in three years, I get what you're saying.   What I'm saying is that it's foolish to apply that standard (which may or may not be true) to a situation when the coach and and GM have told us from the very beginning that it would take longer than three years.   They TOLD us they would build a very good team and that it would take longer than three years.   Now they're two and a half years into the process, it's completely clear that this team has gotten better at its very core, in all of the fundamental things it does, that it's poised to have success and that the building process will continue for another year or two.  Why should anyone apply an arbitrary three-year standard under those circumstances?

 

I'm completely prepared to accept what you call mediocrity (which is mediocrity in the win-loss column) for another year, because long-term success in the win-loss column comes only after first developing exceptional (and not mediocre) behaviors across the entire organization.  McBeane told me to expect it would take more than three years, and McBeane have so far been very good at delivering what they say they're going to deliver. 

 

Please provide a source for the above bolded and italicized statement.  Because I can't find one example that McD or Beane ever said this.     

 

[Shaw66]

31 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Please provide a source for the above bolded and italicized statement.  Because I can't find one example that McD or Beane ever said this.     

 

What they've said is that they're building for sustained long-term success.  They said it would take more than three years.  Both things are paraphrases of what they've said, repeatedly.  

 

As I wrote, there is only NFL example of modern sustained long-term success - the Patriots.   I said that, not McBeane.  But if you put together what they have said and what is the obvious goal - Patriots-type success, you get to the conclusion that what McDermott meant when he came to Buffalo was that he intended to build an organization that succeeds like the Patriots and that it would take 5 or 6 years.  

 

They HAVE repeatedly said that to get to where they want to be it would take more than three years.   Repeatedly.  It's often been debated around here whether the Pegulas would give them more than three years.   So the notion that this would be a process that takes more than three years is not new or novel.   If you've listened to McBeane for the past two years, they've been completely clear about the timetable.  

[Bob in STL]

@Shaw66

 

Great post!   I have not have this kind of anticipation for a football season in 20 years. 

 

I hope we have a few superstars in the making on this roster because that is what it takes to consistently win in the NFL.  Maybe we do. 

[muppy]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  I appreciate the kind words.

 

Very few of my friends are serious football fans.   They think I'm crazy.  

LOL That's awesome makes me even more grateful to read you here it has great value even if your friends can't relate WE CAN ^5

[LSHMEAB]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Rams have had the same GM since 2012. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. Since his splurge in free agency they now have a 1-2 year window before the seams fall apart. Not sure how effective that strategy will be.

 

Andy Reid has been with the Chiefs since 2013. Last year was year 6 of his rebuild. If Mahomes keeps it up they'll be set for the long haul no matter what happens outside of him. Only took 6 years to get there.

 

Eagles have had the same GM since 2010. Took him 8 years to win the Super Bowl. That's quite a long rebuild and there were plenty of missteps along the way.

 

Pete Carroll was hired in 2010. He went 7-9 his first 2 years before Russell Wilson exploded onto the scene. Made it to the playoffs in year 3 and won the Super Bowl year 4.

 

So not really sure where you got the idea that good rebuilds take 2-3 years. They normally take longer than that to find real success. Personally I will be disappointed if the Bills end up less than 9-7 but if you're expecting them to complete for a Super Bowl this year they're a year or two off from that stage of the rebuild.

Great examples of GM's that took awhile to get it right. There are a few examples of coach's who took awhile to get it right as well.

 

My counterpoint would be that there are VERY few modern examples of GM/HC/QB combo's taking a while to get it right. When you have the right people at those 3 positions, it generally happens rather quickly. I'm not even talking  Superbowl. Where I'm at is this; if we have the right pieces in place, we should be strongly contending for a playoff spot. If we fall a little short, meh. I'll be irritated, but it wouldn't warrant any major changes. Anything less than 8 wins would be a bigtime fail. 10 wins or more and they've almost certainly gotten it right.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Great examples of GM's that took awhile to get it right. There are a few examples of coach's who took awhile to get it right as well.

 

My counterpoint would be that there are VERY few modern examples of GM/HC/QB combo's taking a while to get it right. When you have the right people at those 3 positions, it generally happens rather quickly. I'm not even talking  Superbowl. Where I'm at is this; if we have the right pieces in place, we should be strongly contending for a playoff spot. If we fall a little short, meh. I'll be irritated, but it wouldn't warrant any major changes. Anything less than 8 wins would be a bigtime fail. 10 wins or more and they've almost certainly gotten it right.

This I pretty much agree with, except it doesn't apply to what this GM and head coach are doing.   What most teams have done when they have the top three in place is add some big-time veteran talent, and go all out.   So you KC signing Shady, for example.  You see a Watkins getting big contracts, despite his underproduction.   You see Seattle go after that tight end from New Orleans a few years ago and after Clowney this year.  That's the way to get good fast.

 

McBeane have been very clear that that is NOT their way.  Their way is to acquire young talent through the draft, not veteran talent.   Beane has said repeatedly that he gets talent in the draft, he fills holes in free agency.  

 

So although you are correct that there are very few examples of a Head Coach and GM with a QB continuing to proceed slowly, that doesn't that what McBeane are doing is a bad technique or won't work.   There are very few examples of teams with a successful HC, GM actually trying what McBeane are doing.   In fact, the sample size of teams that have a good GM and HC is so small that there's pretty much nothing we can conclude about what will work and what won't work.  That leads me to the conclusion that although what you say may be true, it is irrelevant. 

 

I also agree about your targets win totals.  Ten wins means they're doing it right.  I'd say six wins is a bigtime fail, seven it depends.   Eight is the minimum number of wins necessary with which it could be reasonable to conclude that the process is working.   That is, if the process is working, the Bills should get at least two more wins than last year.   Nine is solid improvement.  

[LSHMEAB]

19 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

 

I also agree about your targets win totals.  Ten wins means they're doing it right.  I'd say six wins is a bigtime fail, seven it depends.   Eight is the minimum number of wins necessary with which it could be reasonable to conclude that the process is working.   That is, if the process is working, the Bills should get at least two more wins than last year.   Nine is solid improvement.  

Agreed.

[Figster]

8 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Agreed.

I'll 2nd the win /loss assesment

 

Although the homer side of me is optimistic and hopeful for 10.  Being realistic on where Allen stands in his development along with all the new faces in the starting lineup I think an 8 - 8 record is very possible.

 

Anything less in all likelihood would probably involve injury to two or more key players IMO.

 

 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Great examples of GM's that took awhile to get it right. There are a few examples of coach's who took awhile to get it right as well.

 

My counterpoint would be that there are VERY few modern examples of GM/HC/QB combo's taking a while to get it right. When you have the right people at those 3 positions, it generally happens rather quickly. I'm not even talking  Superbowl. Where I'm at is this; if we have the right pieces in place, we should be strongly contending for a playoff spot. If we fall a little short, meh. I'll be irritated, but it wouldn't warrant any major changes. Anything less than 8 wins would be a bigtime fail. 10 wins or more and they've almost certainly gotten it right.

 

I agree 100%. 9-7 this year tells me we're on the right track. 8-8 I would feel pretty meh about but I wouldn't be calling for drastic changes. Anything below that and 2020 is a hot seat year.

[Shaw66]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I agree 100%. 9-7 this year tells me we're on the right track. 8-8 I would feel pretty meh about but I wouldn't be calling for drastic changes. Anything below that and 2020 is a hot seat year.

That's about right.  Unless there's a total disaster, like 5 wins, they will get another year, which is what I've said all along in response to those who used to post that this year is win or you lose your job.  

[RevWarRifleman]

Welcome NFL season, we've been waiting for you.                                     Go Bills!