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Phil The Thrill

Matt Parrino Projects The Bills 53 Man Roster

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6 hours ago, Badanswer said:

my surprise cut is Shaq Lawson for Darryl Johnson....I was so happy when we got Shaq but he's been a disappointment to me. Maybe I expected the next Bruce. He couldn't hold Bruce's beer.

No wonder you have been disappointed.  Nothing about Shaq said Bruce Smith.

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7 hours ago, Phil The Thrill said:

 

10 might be a stretch.  I’m thinking it could be as few as 9 (5WR and 4 TE).  The only good thing is that the Bills carry 2 QB’s instead of 3 like last year, it frees up a roster spot

 

 

 

They kept 6 WRs both of the last two years. IMO that's the best guess this year as well.

 

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5 hours ago, MichaelAbdallah said:

I only disagree with the following:

 

1. Keeping Yeldon over Perry. For your RB#4 on the depth chart, you're going to want to keep a special teams ace over a mediocre third-down specialist who underachieved and was accused of having a bad attitude while in Jacksonville.

2. Keeping Love over Darryl Johnson. In a 4-way battle for the fourth DE spot between Love, Johnson, Yarbrough, and Harold, I'm going with the guy who has the most upside as a pass-rushing force.

3. Thompson over Stanford. You need a backup MLB on your roster. Without Stanford, we don't really have one. The preseason waiver wire is another option here.

4. Gaines over Pitts. This is my surprise cut right here. I have White and Kevin Johnson as the starters, Taron Johnson as the nickel, and Wallace as an excellent CB#4. For your fifth CB, I'm looking at special teams abilities as much as CB depth. Gaines has also been plagued with injuries for four straight seasons now, and McDermott is big on "availability," so he could be cut if he can't distinguish himself enough in preseason.

It will be a tough call but Wallace will be the starter.

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10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t think we will see a 27/23 split between offense and defense.  I’d expect one more DB and one less RB for starters. 

 

I was thinking the same after I did the math on offense vs. defense.

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10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t think we will see a 27/23 split between offense and defense.  I’d expect one more DB and one less RB for starters. 

Excellent point! You’d think if a guy wrote an article on this subject that he’d have researched that from the get go. Does anyone know what a normal roster ratio would be? How far from 25/25 do teams stray?

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14 hours ago, Logic said:

I agree with a lot of it, but not all.

I have Perry making the roster over Yeldon due to special teams ability.

I do NOT see the Bills keeping 7 WRs, but would be pleasantly surprised if they did. I think you can subtract one receiver from that list and replace him with a tight end.

 

If Kroft is on PUP you can keep 7 and make a move in week 7 with mckenzie or duke.  

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5 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No wonder you have been disappointed.  Nothing about Shaq said Bruce Smith.

He showed some quickness and flashed at Clemson...really thought he'd be that guy...nobody can be Bruce obviously

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14 hours ago, NoSaint said:

You think 6 WR and 5 TE?

 

id guess we keep 9 not 11 pass catchers 


Yes. I think Daboll is going to roll out a lot of two and three TE sets this year, a la New England. I think they like both new youngsters and Lee Smith. Those three are locks.They're not cutting Kroft. Finally, I think Croom sticks a flex TE/slot option.

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For those wondering about DiMarco, I think he sticks because he's a special teams guy and a leader, was a captain last season. 

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13 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

How is DeMarco still making this roster!?!?!

Exactly! He is serviceable at best and FB is a dying entity in todays NFL. They would be smart to carry and extra RB vs FB.

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13 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

How is DeMarco still making this roster!?!?!

 

He's the one guy I expect gone this year and replaced with a WR / TE

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Perry needs to be cut for daring to wear #32 in Buffalo. :thumbdown:

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52 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

For those wondering about DiMarco, I think he sticks because he's a special teams guy and a leader, was a captain last season. 

 

Yep. DiMarco will make the team. The idea that they cut him to carry extra running backs and receivers that don't play special teams is the sort of normal pie in the sky pre-season nonsense.

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While I personally think we likely keep 6, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up keeping 7 WRs, at least early, especially if Roberts is seen only as ST.  The guy I think would push them to keep 7 though would be Ray Ray, not McKenzie.

 

Nothing is more important than Josh’s development, so I think with the TE injuries, it may lead us to keep an extra WR until Kroft is healthy.  

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So if I have to call it right now then the changes I'd make from what he has are:

 

Out:

TJ Yeldon - I don't think the Bills are going to carry four running backs who don't play special teams. If a 4th back is carried (I don't think they will be) then Perry is more likely than Yeldon IMO.

Duke Williams - He still has ground to make up after spring practices. Maybe he is a guy who comes alive when the pads go on in July but what we saw in terms of play design in the install that the media got to watch during OTAs and mini camp was lots and lots of routes designed for slot receivers and speed receivers. I don't think this regime is going to carry a "big guy" just for the sake of having one.

Corey Bojorquez - No explanation needed here beyond my belief that Corey Carter will win the punting competition.

 

In:

Rafael Bush - I think the defensive backs are pretty set. The top 5 corners seem nailed on and Hyde, Poyer and tookie Jaquan Johnson (who has major ST value) are likely to make the roster at safety. But the Bills have not used Siran Neal as a safety during the spring. He has been the 2nd time nickel and played in some of the 1st team defense big nickel packages. That 6th corner / backup nickel and hybrid big nickel swiss army knife role mis his route onte this roster rather that as a conventional safety. I don't see Bush being cut I think he will remain their primary backup to Poyer and Hyde.

Eli Harold - The Bills have been encouraged by Trent Murphy over the offseason but they must still have a concern over his health and even when healthy Murphy, Lawson and Mike love all fit more naturally as the 6 technique than the 9 technique which could cause them a problem if they lose Jerry Hughes for any period of time. Therefore an extra Dlineman makes sense and Eli Harold has a better burst and better bend and has had some success as spot duty rusher in San Fran and Detroit.

Corey Carter - He may not have the leg of his rival (tough his own leg is decent) but he is more consistent. Bojorquez is an adventure every time the long snapper snaps the ball.

 

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24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

So if I have to call it right now then the changes I'd make from what he has are:

 

Out:

TJ Yeldon - I don't think the Bills are going to carry four running backs who don't play special teams. If a 4th back is carried (I don't think they will be) then Perry is more likely than Yeldon IMO.

Duke Williams - He still has ground to make up after spring practices. Maybe he is a guy who comes alive when the pads go on in July but what we saw in terms of play design in the install that the media got to watch during OTAs and mini camp was lots and lots of routes designed for slot receivers and speed receivers. I don't think this regime is going to carry a "big guy" just for the sake of having one.

Corey Bojorquez - No explanation needed here beyond my belief that Corey Carter will win the punting competition.

 

In:

Rafael Bush - I think the defensive backs are pretty set. The top 5 corners seem nailed on and Hyde, Poyer and tookie Jaquan Johnson (who has major ST value) are likely to make the roster at safety. But the Bills have not used Siran Neal as a safety during the spring. He has been the 2nd time nickel and played in some of the 1st team defense big nickel packages. That 6th corner / backup nickel and hybrid big nickel swiss army knife role mis his route onte this roster rather that as a conventional safety. I don't see Bush being cut I think he will remain their primary backup to Poyer and Hyde.

Eli Harold - The Bills have been encouraged by Trent Murphy over the offseason but they must still have a concern over his health and even when healthy Murphy, Lawson and Mike love all fit more naturally as the 6 technique than the 9 technique which could cause them a problem if they lose Jerry Hughes for any period of time. Therefore an extra Dlineman makes sense and Eli Harold has a better burst and better bend and has had some success as spot duty rusher in San Fran and Detroit.

Corey Carter - He may not have the leg of his rival (tough his own leg is decent) but he is more consistent. Bojorquez is an adventure every time the long snapper snaps the ball.

 

I think Yeldon does stick and Duke is at the very least on the practice squad

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42 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

While I personally think we likely keep 6, I wouldn’t be surprised if we end up keeping 7 WRs, at least early, especially if Roberts is seen only as ST.  The guy I think would push them to keep 7 though would be Ray Ray, not McKenzie.

 

Interesting take. What do you think RayRay does better than McKenzie based on what we have seen on the field?

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. DiMarco will make the team. The idea that they cut him to carry extra running backs and receivers that don't play special teams is the sort of normal pie in the sky pre-season nonsense.

I mostly agree with you here, but I do not think any players whose value is primarily special teams should feel very comfortable based on being part of one of the worst special teams units in the NFL.  All up for grabs.  Still, unless they can upgrade his special teams role with a more useful position player he probably sticks, unfortunately.  

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P, K and LS are purely Special Teams, which leaves 50 spots for the rest of the roster. This projection has FOURTEEN of them going to RB, WR, TE. Seems high to me. If the Bills do carry that many I think one of each will be kept primarily as ST players. 

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12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Your eye for detail is appreciated here. Any high-functioning 4-3 defense needs on-field fluency from its MLB. That means a clear succession plan at the position. Stanford seemed to my limited eye to grow into that role last season. 

 

However, I will go to my grave believing that #57 Lorenzo Alexander can, in a pinch, play MLB at a HIGH level in the NFL. The 2018 wildcard playoff loss to JAX is my primary evidence to support this claim.

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/top-5-lorenzo-alexander-plays-afc-wild-card-20215128

 

Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB? 

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8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Wasn’t Preston Brown MLB? 

 

Indeed he was, alongside Zo, and everyone's favorite, Ramon Humber. I just looked at the starting lineups for that playoff game and wow, the improvement Beane has made on this roster is something. 

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Interesting take. What do you think RayRay does better than McKenzie based on what we have seen on the field?

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me either.  

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Agree Bush will be cut, I also anticipate Teller, McKenzie, Sweeney and mike love will be cut. Neal for Bush, hopefully a FA or trade for a Wr replacing McKenzie, Croom for Sweeney. Harold or FA for Mike Love. FA for Teller maybe at another position. Maybe it was addressed and I missed it but he has no back up at Mike if Edmonds went down. Which would add another player. Both punters suck. Hope we pick a better one up.

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3 hours ago, blacklabel said:

For those wondering about DiMarco, I think he sticks because he's a special teams guy and a leader, was a captain last season. 


Indeed. Someone pointed out that he only played around 20% of offensive snaps. He also, however, played all four special teams units. Add 20% of offensive snaps to playing all four special teams units and you have a rosterable player. He certainly saw the field more than, say, a WR5 who doesn't play special teams would.

We must also remember that McDermott and Daboll both come from pasts that always involve fullbacks of some sort on the roster. Nothing about their "upbringing" in football would suggest that they're suddenly going to axe the position entirely.

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I’m mostly basing it on the momentum Ray Ray has built this offseason and how McKenzies bigger value was as a returner and we are going to replace him in that role with Roberts.  While McKenzie was a good mid season find and value last year on a team lacking speed at the WR spots, he also didn’t really have reliable hands.  Several bad drops himself.  

 

I just think Ray Ray has a little bit more upside as a WR.  I can also see Sills competing for that spot, but getting dinged up early in OTAs didn’t do him any favors in keeping up.  McKenzie has a shot still of course, and it’s going to be a fun watch to see how the whole WR group competes and shakes out.

 

Im personally rooting for Sills because I like his story and the different type of skill set he potentially brings.  But this WR battle is going to be tough and there is no guarantee they keep more than 5 which will make cracking this roster for guys like Sills, Ray Ray, and McKenzie a very tall task.  

 

I still think it will be 6 guys we keep personally, but keeping 5 or 7 wouldn’t shock me either.  

 

So McKenzie is the only player that I think is in danger of being cut that I really, really want on this team and I think his value goes way beyond possible return value. He is a swiss army knife on offense and I think his explosiveness adds something to our arsenal. 

 

McCloud is the only guy who offers a similar skillset and I think they probably are after one spot. McCloud has had a good spring but so has McKenzie who has been out there with the 1s as much as any other receiver. I just don't see McCloud's upside and as someone who watched him a fair bit at Clemson I didn't ever really see it. When he was out there last year he was atrocious he couldn't run a route. I still have him as my "guy to disappear when the pads go on" but I do think the winner of the McKenzie / McCloud battle has a significantly higher % chance of winning a roster spot than the winner of the Sills / Williams battle - just based on the offense they want to run. 

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