ROCKPILE REVIEW - The Hopeless Optimist

[Fan in San Diego]

Great post. Count me in.

As for the WR's , they just have to be able to run their routes and catch the ball. Look at Brady and their WR's, Brady makes them look better than they are.

 

 

 

[ganesh]

On 5/26/2019 at 5:27 AM, Logic said:

I'm with you here. Year two is so big for young quarterbacks. Once defenses start taking away the long ball and playing contain to keep Allen in the pocket, what will happen? Will he learn to read the defense, take the checkdown, take the 3 yard gain? Will he actually utilize Cole Beasley, who I expect to be open most of the time due to the attention that must be paid to Foster and Brown? 

There are big questions Allen needs to answer on the field before any reasonable person can say he's a surefire franchise guy. In keeping with the theme of the post, I'm optimistic, but hopefully not hopelessly so!

It all depends on

* Allen's progress

* the capability of the newly built OL

* Will the WRs show up

* Will the RBs show up

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Where's the nearest brick wall to run through?

 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Darth Bill said:

Well said Shaw66. I have been following your posts for years  ...  at least back to the BMB. When you speak you are very honest and measured kind of like E. F. Hutton - you speak and everyone listens. Anyhow there are 4 additional success factors to expand upon and add to your post - The Draft, Free Agency, The City, and The Fans.

 

The Draft - The Patriots have mastered the art of moving around the draft as if it is an investment fund with high yields. Mc-Beane hopefully can learn to do more of that. The draft is a numbers game and historically seems to yield roughly 30% to 40% success rate for a good team and 0 % to 20% for a bad team. The Bills in the last two drafts have done some of this but need to do more especially with regard to getting comp picks. Draft 7 poorly and yield 1 maybe 2 players or Draft 10 or 12 well and yield 4 good players maybe more. The Bills are improving upon this.

 

Free Agency - The Bills are middle of the road when it comes to this. We will see how it works this year with the offensive line players they found. Since the inception of the current free agency system the Bills have had a few successes but overall have bled away talent.  Here is where New England has had quite a bit of success. The Patriots have a knack for finding other teams high draft players who are not succeeding, just mediocre, or fading and attracting them where they for the most part find their groove and succeed buying into the Patriot Way. Bills have had free agent sucesses with players like Hughes, Poyer, and few others but blew it losing Gilmore and the bevy of receivers who became successful with the Pats and the Rams to name a few.

 

The City - Buffalo is certainly not a world class city like SF, LA, NYC, or Boston. But the region is rebounding and a lot of good things are happening to put the city in better light. After all the world class likes of Toronto is in the same type of climate so it is possible to make an a nationally attractive although smaller city out of Buffalo.  Marketing Buffalo is challenging due to the historical bias against it because of our winter weather. Cities like Detroit, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Boston contend with bad weather and yet attract free agents. More work is needed is this area at least in terms of attracting players and national attention and this issue is a long term one mostly out of the teams control. Maybe somehow landing the draft in Buffalo in the future is possible.

 

The Fans - Get us a good team and we will raucously support them. Get us a bad team and we will be critical and all over their case. We have good supportive fans and nationally known tailgating game day support. Basically the Bills have the community behind them and need to continue to their efforts to regionalize. We only get credit for Erie and Niagara counties as our market but in reality the market should include the Niagara Peninsula, Rochester, Syracuse, Finger Lakes and the rest of WNY. Anyone who has driven Eastbound of Williamsville on the Thruway after a game can attest to how far reaching the fan base goes. Our market is more than the Buffalo metro of 1.2 million to well over 5 million when those areas are included.  As far as having more of a national fan base just win and they will come and as always we have the support of the many Buffalonians all over the country who have left but still support the Bills.

 

I am not as wordy or well thought out as you, Shaw66, but I would be interested in your take on these additional factors and how current, future, and continous improvement in these areas is going to contribute to a successful run at at being a champion and a perennial contender. I certainly look forward to another run at success for the Bills. It was great to expect and see the success of the Kelly era after suffering through the late 60s, 70s, and some of the 80's when it seemed like the black cloud over the Bills would never clear but it did clear and will clear again. In the back of my mind though I feel like the big market economics is kind of against the smaller teams. Simply said there is just not enough economic value to the rest of the league for Buffalo to succeed like New England.

Mr. Vader

 

Thanks for your kind comments.  I appreciate them.  

 

Your response gives me a chance to say more about what I'm thinking.   I don't think you've raised anything that is an impediment to greatness.  I will say, for example, that I never have believed that the City of Buffalo is an impediment to recruiting top talent.   I get that it's far from glamorous, it's cold, and there are New York State taxes to deal with.   I get that.   But listen to McDermott.  He and Beane are building a roster full of players who don't care about any of that.  Boston is cold, taxes are high, and unless you're ultra-liberal or spending 60 hours a week in the library at Harvard or MIT is your idea of a great time, Boston isn't your town.  Green Bay gets its share of players.  Pittsburgh.  

 

McBeane are building a team that players will want to be a part of.  A team that wins (that's the most important part), a team where players are respected, a team with great owners.  If a player doesn't want to play for the Bills, or wants a premium to move to Buffalo, he isn't the kind of player McBeane wants.

 

Plus, to move on to the draft and free agency, Beane isn't looking for the top talent in free agency.  He fills holes in free agency; he gets his talent in the draft.  He IS doing what the Pats do in free agency - he's collecting solid players with the right competitive instincts - like Hogan.  The only top talent that the Pats regularly go after in free agency is shut-down corner.  

 

Beane is certainly not stupid.  When the roster is put together the way they want it, which I think means after this season or definitely after next season, Beane's going to be smart about the occasional big ticket free agent.   But remember, that isn't generally their plan.  When the Bills write a big check for a free agent, in most cases it's going to be for THEIR OWN free agent.  Their objective is draft talent and keep it, not get it in free agency.  

 

The fans aren't perfect, but they're great.  What makes Buffalo stand out is that it seems that a higher percentage of the population is serious fans than almost anyplace else.  The whole city is engaged with the team, even over all these years of mediocrity and worse.  They CARE about the team, and it's obvious to the players.   They all comment on it, including players who don't play for the Bills.   The fans are an asset that McBeane obviously are selling to players.   McDermott wants his players to understand that it's a PRIVILEGE to play for fans like they have.  Most cities have fair-weather fans or worse.   Not Buffalo.  

 

But the linchpin of my optimistic view is the continuous improvement philosophy.   I am not by any means an expert in the philosophy, but I get the core elements.   McDermott has explained it several times.  The fundamental requirement for a successful continuous improvement environment is to have the organization populated with people who are committed to it.  That's why McBeane say that they don't care about a player's physical gifts if he isn't an intense competitor and isn't committed to working at getting better every day.   The core operating idea is to evaluate, set objectives, work to meet the objectives, evaluate, set objectives, etc. - forever.   Always looking to get better.  You do that by internalizing whatever vest practices you develop along the way. 

 

So, for example, someone commented about McDermott's success on challenges.  It hasn't been good.   I am certain that in the team's evaluation of him they have identified challenges as something to improve.   And they don't just talk about it - they analyze how they make decisions, they study how others do it, they develop procedures to follow, they implement the procedures, and they see if their challenges improve.   Your comments about the draft and free agency point to the same thing.  McDermott looks at his team, sees that there's something missing in terms of talent, chemistry, whatever, and he tells Beane.  McD, Beane and their coaches and scouts look at the system and figure out why they aren't filling that kind of need and what they need to do to fill it.  I expect their draft philosophy and techniques will continue to improve, because they will examine the philosophy and technique all the time and improve it. 

 

I've said elsewhere that they are doing what Belichick does.  They are.  They aren't exactly copying him - it's clear that McDermott's commitment to family, to personal connection with his players is something that isn't such an important part of the Belichick model - but they're generally doing the same things.   One of the strengths of the Patriots is that they've used the same core offense and core defense for 20 years.  It doesn't change.   It's based on fundamental football principles and not on gimmicks or fads.   By building that way, the Patriots can tweak it from year to year and now from game to game without rewriting the playbook.   It's easiest to see on defense, and McDermott's defense has the same characteristic.  Out of the Bills basic 4-3, with personnel who fit the defense, McDermott can do whatever he wants.   He can rush three, he can rush six or seven.   He can commit safeties all over the field.   

 

The benefit of this aspect of what the Pats do and the Bills are building is that continuous improvement becomes possible.  What the defense did in 2008 to respond to trends in the league becomes part of the playbook and part of the DNA of the defense - the players in 2010 know it, not because they're playing the way it was played in 2008, but it's part of the system.  The players in 2012 are better at playing the defense than the players in 2008 because they've learned the 2008 wrinkles AND the 2010 wrinkles.   The players teach each other, and the team keeps getting better.  The Bills want to build through the draft because they can pull their rookies up to their level and build from their.  Jerry and Star are going to teach Oliver a lot this summer, and the Bills are going to expect him to absorb a lot of it.   If they've done their homework on Oliver correctly, he will thrive on the opportunity to learn and get better.  

 

A couple years ago I heard someone describe how Brady and his OC were preparing for particular opponent, and one of them said "when they're in that defense, what would work would be that play we put in for the Jets about ten years ago.   The next day, they show the play to the offense - an offense based on all the same principles as 2008, and - VOILA! - they had the answer on how to attack this week's opponent.   Continuous improvement and continuity made that possible.   And continuity comes from drafting and keeping players, and constantly teaching the younger players what the veterans know.  

 

Sorry, long-winded answer, even for me, but that's what I see happening.  Does Beane get free agency completely right?   No, but every year he gets better. Does he get the draft right?  No, but every year he gets better.   Does McD get every coaching decision right?  No, but every year he gets better.  A continuous improvement environment makes things better and better.   Toyota proved it.

 

AND - the Bills now have a physically gifted QB with brains who is completely, totally on board with this system.   He's working daily to pile knowledge on top of knowledge in his brain.   He really wants it, he wants to do it right, and he believes he's being led in the right direction.   And he doesn't seem to have an ego that's going to get in the way.   He knows he has to be the man, but being the man isn't his personal objective.  What he wants to do is win, and if winning comes from handing the ball off 45 times, he's gonna do it.  

 

Continuous improvement is going to put the Bills on top. 

 

[Dr. Who]

Shaw, what you're describing is really the intrinsic meaning of tradition which is a creative "passing on," innovation that grows out of continuity. Philosophically, it's the sort of thing Alasdair MacIntyre talked about in his little book, Three Rival Versions of Moral Enquiry.

[Troll Toll]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Forgive me for zeroing in on this one, limited point, in what is otherwise a thoughtful post: BUT...

 

...it got me thinking about the Patriots and how they tailor defenses to particular opponents. Don't they (as evidenced in the Super Bowl, playoffs, and for many many years) put their best man-to-man guy (currently Gilmore) on the opposing team's best or most productive receiver, then double the second-best receiving option with CB2 or LB/EDGE guy (if it's a TE like Kelse) plus a safety, leaving 8 defenders to stop the running game and secondary passing attack? 

 

So, then, how will/should Belichick scheme to stop the 2019 Bills? Who gets Gilmore, and who gets doubled? 

Often times, I believe Bellicheck actually doubles the #1 and puts Gilmore on the #2. Regardless, I don’t think Bellicheck will double any of our receivers. Instead, I think he’ll free a DB up to just read Josh and try to jump intermediate routes. He’ll put a focus on containing Allen’s runs and force him to throw into tight windows. I don’t think he’ll be coming in with a gameplan of mostly blitzes (i.e. the common formula for beating young QBs). 

 

Basically, I think Bellicheck will force Allen to have to be patient and complete many underneath routes. He’ll only shift his approach and risk the possibility for intermediate completions if Josh proves he can work underneath consistently and get us ahead by multiple scores (which is something we have yet to see).

[SoCal Deek]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Shaw, what you're describing is really the intrinsic meaning of tradition which is a creative "passing on," innovation that grows out of continuity. Philosophically, it's the sort of thing Alasdair MacIntyre talked about in his little book, Three Rival Versions of Moral Enquiry.

OK Captain Obvious

[MJS]

Ready for the next wave of Bills Hall of Famers to emerge. Here's to hoping that Josh Allen is among those. It would be so great to have that position solidified for the next 15 years. 

[machine gun kelly]

Shaw, well written, only I’m shooting for 10-6 and believe we can do it.  I loved you’re post and the negative nellies just want to say “I told you so”.

 

id rather take on that illness you speak to and I just on a slow day reread the last chapter of Big Russ and Me’s book as was unpacking with a move and found that book, “The Bills”.  Russet was such a Bills homer and so eloquent in how he articulated Buffalonians past and present true passion for their Bills.  His stories of the Rockpile were awesome.

 

You keep up that illness as it is infectious.  Have a great rest of you’re holiday bud.

[WhoTom]

Shaw, I agree with your analysis but not your terminology. The process of using data to recognize one's mistakes, learn from them, and continuously improve is neither cult nor religion, it's science. 

 

 

[John from Riverside]

We are making the playoffs this year......

[Bad Things]

I'm with ya, Shaw66!  Well said.

[billsredneck1]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

What is it that you see in the present organization that you think would keep them from becoming a great franchise?

 

Me. Wilson wasn't a great owner.  Rex wasn't ever going to be a great coach.  Fitzpatrick never was going to be a star QB.  Whaley wasn't a Hall of Fame GM.  

 

I don't see any weak links now.  McD isn't a great coach yet, but he has time to grow.  He's had some success already, and he is determined. Beane and Allen look like winners, and the Pegulas have impressed me.  

 

What do see that makes you think this combination is unlikely to become historically great?  What franchises do you think are better set up for an impressive decade?

sorry i haven't read the all the pages, but you make great points. being a fan from 1973....when i was 10, i feel more optimistic, or at least as much since the polian/levy era.

 

probably even more now, i gotta say. i really think these guys will get the lombardi for us.

Edited May 27, 2019 by billsredneck1

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I wish I could be am optimist like you, but I see too many red flags to believe that the Bills will be a SB contender in the next few years, or at any time with this coach and GM. 

 

1) The Process

 

What is "The Process"? To the best of my knowledge it's never been defined.

 

Are we trying to remove players that are morally questionable?  If so, why did we trade Cordy Glenn or Ronald Darby? Why is Lesean Mccoy still on the team? 

 

Does "The Process" mean tanking (similar to the Philadelphia 76ers)? We went 9-7 and 6-10 with McBeane. If we're trying to tank we have done an awful job...

 

2) The Coach

 

Does a good job of motivating our players, but I have to say I'm concerned about the number of blowout losses we've had with Mcdermott as coach (8 losses of 20+ points in 2 seasons).

 

His challenge record speaks for itself.

 

I'm still upset about his decision to punt against the Colts in the 2017 snow game (we won the game, but it was still a terrible decision to punt).

 

3) The GM 

 

I don't have too much to say here.

 

He's made good moves. He's made bad moves.  Not much different from Doug Whaley...

 

4) The QB

 

The giant question mark for this franchise's immediate future. Josh Allen showed some flashes, but he's still a raw prospect. If he improves (dramatically) he could be a top QB in the NFL. If he doesn't improve he'll turn into a giant "what if" that we'll argue about on this forum for years to come. 

 

5) The Owners

 

I love what the Pegulas have done for Buffalo as a city, but I don't see how we can call the Pegulas quality owners when we look at what they've done to the Sabres. 

 

 

[Figster]

17 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I wish I could be am optimist like you, but I see too many red flags to believe that the Bills will be a SB contender in the next few years, or at any time with this coach and GM. 

 

1) The Process

 

What is "The Process"? To the best of my knowledge it's never been defined.

 

Are we trying to remove players that are morally questionable?  If so, why did we trade Cordy Glenn or Ronald Darby? Why is Lesean Mccoy still on the team? 

 

Does "The Process" mean tanking (similar to the Philadelphia 76ers)? We went 9-7 and 6-10 with McBeane. If we're trying to tank we have done an awful job...

 

2) The Coach

 

Does a good job of motivating our players, but I have to say I'm concerned about the number of blowout losses we've had with Mcdermott as coach (8 losses of 20+ points in 2 seasons).

 

His challenge record speaks for itself.

 

I'm still upset about his decision to punt against the Colts in the 2017 snow game (we won the game, but it was still a terrible decision to punt).

 

3) The GM 

 

I don't have too much to say here.

 

He's made good moves. He's made bad moves.  Not much different from Doug Whaley...

 

4) The QB

 

The giant question mark for this franchise's immediate future. Josh Allen showed some flashes, but he's still a raw prospect. If he improves (dramatically) he could be a top QB in the NFL. If he doesn't improve he'll turn into a giant "what if" that we'll argue about on this forum for years to come. 

 

5) The Owners

 

I love what the Pegulas have done for Buffalo as a city, but I don't see how we can call the Pegulas quality owners when we look at what they've done to the Sabres. 

 

 

The Process in two words "continuous Improvment" 

 

Shaw did a good job pointing out to what great lengths the process takes the Buffalo Bills IMO. 

 

Josh Allen and his fellow teamates bought into the process and by seasons end we started seeing results.  

 

Remains to be seen how it will all pan out and posts like yours helps keep us grounded.

Edited May 28, 2019 by Figster

[Rocky Landing]

57 minutes ago, Figster said:

The Process in two words "continuous Improvment" 

 

Shaw did a good job pointing out to what depths the process takes the Buffalo Bills IMO. 

 

Josh Allen and his fellow teamates bought into the process and by seasons end we started seeing results.  

 

Remains to be seen how it will all pan out and posts like yours helps keep us grounded.

I have to say that I am entirely down with everything Shaw66 wrote, and I'm ecstatic with Josh Allen. But, the one thing that sticks in the back of my head that makes me question all of it is the nagging reality of how astonishingly poorly the quarterback position was managed last season. A clumsy "quarterback competition" that resulted in Nate Peterman starting, and JA as the only backup, with the worst receiving corp in the league, and one of the worst O-lines. Peterman's play was so bad, that he had to be benched for a rookie that conventional wisdom, and just about every pundit alive, said was a raw prospect that needed time to sit, and learn. It was probably fortunate that Allen was quickly injured so that he wasn't turned into Trent Edwards-- afraid to hold onto the ball for more than 2.2 seconds. That he came back from his injury and did, indeed, improve remarkably is a testament to his resilience, tenacity, and character. 

 

I do think Beane has done an exceptional job this offseason in FA, and the draft. And so, I remain cautiously optimistic. But, serious mistakes have been made.

[inthebuff]

Hey Shaw,

 

Your analysis is spot on.   I, too, am a hopeless optimist and I look forward to this season to see how all the moves will have played out.  

 

One thing that is a great point that you've made is that the team from the top (Terry and Kim) seem to want to improve.  Everyone has made their mistakes -- hiring Rex and playing Nathan Peterman a second time are two glaring examples -- however the continuing improvement is the part of the process that everyone seems to be embracing.  Compounding personnel errors seems to be a thing of a past as well (we can all give countless examples of that).  

 

As a life long Bills fan I'm a believer in what this regime is doing.      

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have to say that I am entirely down with everything Shaw66 wrote, and I'm ecstatic with Josh Allen. But, the one thing that sticks in the back of my head that makes me question all of it is the nagging reality of how astonishingly poorly the quarterback position was managed last season. A clumsy "quarterback competition" that resulted in Nate Peterman starting, and JA as the only backup, with the worst receiving corp in the league, and one of the worst O-lines. Peterman's play was so bad, that he had to be benched for a rookie that conventional wisdom, and just about every pundit alive, said was a raw prospect that needed time to sit, and learn. It was probably fortunate that Allen was quickly injured so that he wasn't turned into Trent Edwards-- afraid to hold onto the ball for more than 2.2 seconds. That he came back from his injury and did, indeed, improve remarkably is a testament to his resilience, tenacity, and character. 

 

I do think Beane has done an exceptional job this offseason in FA, and the draft. And so, I remain cautiously optimistic. But, serious mistakes have been made.

Rocky -

 

One of the reasons I think it's like a religion is that the viewpoint I expressed about continuous improvement leads to one conclusion:  Don't worry, everything will be taken care of.   

 

McBeane's approach is "if there is a problem, we will solve it."   That's what continuous improvement is.   Solve the problem, adjust your system so it doesn't recur, and move on.   A system like that eventually is solving smaller and smaller problems.  

 

My response to you is "if there is a problem, they will solve it."   Yes, I agree the QB play in three acts that we watched last season was bewildering.  But is it a continuing problem?   No.  So I don't worry about what happened last year.

 

There are, I think three concerns about the QB drama.  One was the fact that they badly misevaluated both Peterman and McCarron, so they went to camp with their star rookie and no one else who was a viable NFL QB.  Second was that when they realized how thin they were at QB, Beane was really slow going out to the market for more help.  Third was that McDermott badly misread what he was seeing from Peterman in practice,  much so that he actually thought Peterman could succeed starting games.   

 

I don't worry about any of that because, in response to the first problem, they have their QB now and they just need to keep the team stocked with viable backups.   Bills are a little weak there, but it wasn't a priority in this off-season.  As for the second problem, Beane has admitted he was slow to deal with the backup problem last season.   He was in only his second season as a FM, and like everyone else, he's learning.  That was a mistake, and if the process has worked correctly, it was identified as a mistake and corrective action has been taken.   That is, he should have learned from the mistake, reducing the likelihood that it will happen again. 

 

Most disturbing is the third problem.  How could McDermott not have seen from Peterman in games not have shown up in practice?   Again, he's a young coach with a lot to learn.  I'm sure THAT thought process has been reviewed and McDermott has learned some lessons from it.  Something else needs to be happening in practice to identify flaws that are likely to appear in games.   What was particularly troubling about it was that McDermott made the mistake in his first season against the Chargers, and then he came back with Peterman again in his second season against the Ravens.  Maybe in year two he was just trying to protect Allen.  But if I had to guess, I'd say that McDermott allowed certain positive features about Peterman (his work ethic, his attitude, his competitiveness, his demeanor in practice) to underemphasize other things he should also have been seeing, thinks like lack of arm strength, poor response to pressure, lack of foot speed.  If I'm right about that, McDermott has already adjusted how the Bills evaluate players in practice.

 

Mistakes, misjudgments, etc., are always going to happen.  The question is how you respond to them.   A well designed process identifies the mistakes, takes corrective action, and internalizes the learning to minimize the chances that the mistakes will happen again.    If McBeane hadn't made those mistakes, they wouldn't have had a chance to learn from them.  And they would have made other mistakes instead.  

 

Continuous improvement.  Coming soon to a playing field in Orchard Park. 

[Figster]

15 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have to say that I am entirely down with everything Shaw66 wrote, and I'm ecstatic with Josh Allen. But, the one thing that sticks in the back of my head that makes me question all of it is the nagging reality of how astonishingly poorly the quarterback position was managed last season. A clumsy "quarterback competition" that resulted in Nate Peterman starting, and JA as the only backup, with the worst receiving corp in the league, and one of the worst O-lines. Peterman's play was so bad, that he had to be benched for a rookie that conventional wisdom, and just about every pundit alive, said was a raw prospect that needed time to sit, and learn. It was probably fortunate that Allen was quickly injured so that he wasn't turned into Trent Edwards-- afraid to hold onto the ball for more than 2.2 seconds. That he came back from his injury and did, indeed, improve remarkably is a testament to his resilience, tenacity, and character. 

 

I do think Beane has done an exceptional job this offseason in FA, and the draft. And so, I remain cautiously optimistic. But, serious mistakes have been made.

Young HC, GM, learning from their mistakes I'm sure. Josh Allen is probably ahead of schedule now because of it IMO. Like you Rocky, it brought back memories of TE. If I'm McD, I'm probably staying with the hot hand of Barkley until I could shore up the Oline. As it turns out, the best thing for the teams immediate future was Allen finishing the season behind center. Josh carried his team at the college level, and already doing it as a rookie in the Pro's.

 

One Buffalo strong...

Edited May 28, 2019 by Figster

[LSHMEAB]

On 5/27/2019 at 5:54 AM, Shaw66 said:

What is it that you see in the present organization that you think would keep them from becoming a great franchise?

 

Me. Wilson wasn't a great owner.  Rex wasn't ever going to be a great coach.  Fitzpatrick never was going to be a star QB.  Whaley wasn't a Hall of Fame GM.  

 

I don't see any weak links now.  McD isn't a great coach yet, but he has time to grow.  He's had some success already, and he is determined. Beane and Allen look like winners, and the Pegulas have impressed me.  

 

What do see that makes you think this combination is unlikely to become historically great?  What franchises do you think are better set up for an impressive decade?

I think what he was driving at is that if what you say it's true, it seems a little incongruous to expect a 7 or 8 win season.