Shaq Lawson Option decision week. What do you do?

[Mojo44]

10 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m guessing his signing, or not, will have more to do with his relationship to The Process and whether management believe he’s all in. This is something that fans will never know. He’s certainly not performed so far to first round status but it might be the coaches (who didn’t pick him) see him on an upward trajectory.

 This, to me, is the crucial unknown variable.  This is also, obviously, a pivotal year for him. I am assuming Beane and McD have a good sense of this.  I’m leaning toward  “yes” as it seems to be a low risk proposition based on what I’ve learned about how all this works thanks to some posters here.

[HOUSE]

I can tell you this. If Brandon Beane was completely sold on future effort, the option is a no brainer.

It appears to me the guy took to many plays off...JMO...pass

[Mojo44]

 For me to want him in any capacity beyond his rookie contract he would have to go from being like Chris Kelsay to being like Phil Hansen. You would think he would be able to play at that level, at least.

[njbuff]

Well, if the Bills think he has a higher ceiling, they might pick up the option.

 

If they think he is what he is, there is NO WAY they are picking up the option.

[cba fan]

15 hours ago, Seoulful Soul said:

1:  Pick it up?

2:  Let him play and then re-up him if it warrants it?

3:  Let him play and then say good luck with your career?

4:  Cut him/try to trade?

 

He's been a mixed bag but seemed to start to gel last year.  I still believe he's worth it and it's only 24.

none of the above just yet. For now you get on the phone, especially remembering to use that hot one that they are staying in constant contact with Ziggy Ansah and his agents.

 

You call all the GM's and gauge their interest in Shaq. You then see if they want the 5th year option picked up and if that would increase the return. Then proceed if return is enough.

 

Don't make the mistake like they did declining Watkins 5th yr option as that lessened Watkins trade value. Rams would have loved to keep him one more year at the 5th yr option level(13.2 mill) and/or could have traded him for something instead of just losing him for zilch. Losing him to a team who thought he was worth 16 mill a yr. with 30 mill guaranteed at signing. They surely would have given up something to the Rams for a WR they valued that highly.

[Mat68]

Lawson is not a 13 mil a year player.  If he has a great year, good for him and you franchise him if you dont get a new deal done.

[mcdamit]

bridge extension .  2 years 14 million .  10 in guaranteed .   Lawson will still hit free agency in his prime and get a few more years to build his resume .  

[YoloinOhio]

Joe Marino said on his podcast yesterday that he would pick it up. He made some good points, but I’ll stick by my opinion and prediction that they won’t.

[Rob's House]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But you'd have to make that money over 3 years guaranteed otherwise what is the incentive for the agent to sign? When people start talking about 5th year options and franchise tags it is important that they recognise that those are fully guaranteed and as such they set the market for players that you are considering using them on.  If the Bills want to sign Shaq Lawson they need to give him however much new guaranteed money the 5th year option puts on the table. Otherwise his agent is going to let this play out in 2019 and test Shaq's value in FA next spring. At that point once Shaq and his agent get a feel for what his actual market is then you have a different starting point.

I'm sure you'd have to include some guaranteed money, like you would with most contract extensions, but I don't see how the option affects his market value if we don't exercise it. 

[BuffaloRebound]

If it’s really $10m, I think you exercise the option.  $14m... no.  $10m guaranteed only for injury is a good faith measure that you think he can take the next step but that he needs to show it on the field this year.  Minimal risk on the Bills side exercising that option. 

[JerseyBills]

i'm really on the fence, we do have a healthy amount of cap space next year and Shaq seemed to turn a corner the last half of the season. I know the Bills like his versatility , McDermott was kicking him inside alot more during this time, mainly on pass downs. He's a strength in the run game for sure, i believe he was our best run defender per PFF.

Obviously you don't want to commit that much to a run stopping specialist but he definitely has the potential to have a much bigger impact in the pass game. He had 2 very good gms getting after the passer in week 16 and 17 as well. 

First and foremost though, Hughes needs to be extended , i'd like to add 2 years to his deal so we have him locked in til 2021. 

I'm pretty much on board with whatever Buff does with Shaq, if they view him as someone able to be a more complete DL, i trust their views, and vice versa. Remember, we also likely lose Lorax after this year, assuming we do re sign Hughes, we have Hughes, Murphy and not much after. With Oliver added, a great young secondary, I want them to build a monster of a DL.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Rob's House said:

I'm sure you'd have to include some guaranteed money, like you would with most contract extensions, but I don't see how the option affects his market value if we don't exercise it. 

 

So I think if you don't exercise it and you let the dust settle and maybe at the end of camp test the water there might be a way in. But then if you are Shaq's agent and the Bills are not going to commit $10m+ in guaranteed money to you why would you not wait the season out and test FA? Do they have a sense of what his market is at this point?

[Rob's House]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think if you don't exercise it and you let the dust settle and maybe at the end of camp test the water there might be a way in. But then if you are Shaq's agent and the Bills are not going to commit $10m+ in guaranteed money to you why would you not wait the season out and test FA? Do they have a sense of what his market is at this point?

I think that's a fair assessment. A $10m guarantee on a 3 yr $15m +/- contract seems reasonable. It gives him financial security and still gives him a chance for a big contract in his prime if he performs.

 

Of course he could decide to bet on himself and play out the season, and if so, so be it.

 

The numbers I'm throwing out are somewhat arbitrary. I don't know exactly what his value is, but ~ $5m/yr seems a lot closer than $14 m for what he currently brings to the table.

[Rocket94]

Unless we find a pro bowl/impact DE...we may be stuck with Lawson. Maybe this is this the year that he "magically" finds himself! After all it is a contract year!

3 hours ago, mcdamit said:

bridge extension .  2 years 14 million .  10 in guaranteed .   Lawson will still hit free agency in his prime and get a few more years to build his resume .  

Sure...he will carve out a comfortable living as an "adequate" player. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Rocket94

[BillsFan17]

It's simple, we have the cap space, pick up the option and move on.

[formerlyofCtown]

On 4/30/2019 at 8:13 AM, Woodman19 said:

No reason to pick up the option with his level of performance.  He's not hard to replace if push comes to shove.

Im gonna disagree there.  His ass rush is upgradable but hes a solid edge defender.  Our run D gets hurt when he is out.

[YoloinOhio]

5 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Im gonna disagree there.  His ass rush is upgradable but hes a solid edge defender.  Our run D gets hurt when he is out.

A run stopping DE is not valuable in the NFL and is indeed easy to replace. I do not think they will be striving to replace him with that though. They want a DE who can affect the QB if they are going to pay that. Which is why the 5th year amount doesn’t fit the player. 

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, Rob's House said:

I think that's a fair assessment. A $10m guarantee on a 3 yr $15m +/- contract seems reasonable. It gives him financial security and still gives him a chance for a big contract in his prime if he performs.

 

Of course he could decide to bet on himself and play out the season, and if so, so be it.

 

The numbers I'm throwing out are somewhat arbitrary. I don't know exactly what his value is, but ~ $5m/yr seems a lot closer than $14 m for what he currently brings to the table.

As is hes worth 7 mil per but he is trending up.

Id pick it up.  10 mil isnt a whole lot.  The kind of pass rusher a lot of you want is 20+ per year.

Edited May 1, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Woodman19]

4 hours ago, BillsFan17 said:

It's simple, we have the cap space, pick up the option and move on.

It's simple, if you overpay to keep mediocre players because you don't want to be ruthless with roster management then you soon wont have any cap space to keep good players.

[YoloinOhio]

8 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

As is hes worth 7 mil per but he is trending up.

Id pick it up.  10 mil isnt a whole lot.  The kind of pass rusher a lot of you want is 20+ per year.

Those guys are worth that. I would rather play 20 mill for one of those than have 2 Shaqs for that amount. The best course of action is to draft one of course who turns into the 20 mill guy but you had him cheap first for 4-5 years. But right now while Allen is on his rookie deal, I would rather take the 20 mill/yr pass rusher.