With another Guard just signed....was this the plan last year? Is there more traction to moving up this draft?

[BillsFan1988]

I'm hoping they either

 

A- draft Oliver @ 9 then trade bk into the first for Fant . Most likely at 22 with the Ravens by the draft chart it would take a 2,3,4 & 5 . That would leave us with the 2 1s , a 4th , 5th, 6th and 2 7s still. 

 

B - draft TJ Hock  @ 9 and trade bk into late first for either Wilkins, Tillery or Simmons

[njbuff]

The Bills have 3 pretty good DT's.

 

But McDermott's system really requires a head turner in the middle.

 

There are 3 DT's who are immediate starters in the NFL (maybe more) and the Bills don't have to trade up to land one.

 

I also think the Bills plan on going after Frank Clark when the draft process is over.

 

So, the only reason to trade up is for Allen or Bosa and I don't really see the Bills doing that.

 

A more likely scenario is that the Bills stay at 9 and then make trade up into the bottom of the first round if there is prospect they love who has fallen, but won't fall to 40.

[formerlyofCtown]

I dont see a trade up from 9 but I think we trade back into the first or second.

[njbuff]

Just now, formerlyofCtown said:

I dont see a trade up from 9 but I think we trade back into the first or second.

 

If the Bills trade back into the first round (after keeping 9), it could be anybody's guess who they would be targeting.

 

I do know one thing though...............

 

Whomever the Bills will be targeting, we will get it wrong as to whom they will draft. ?

[TigerJ]

It depends entirely on their assessment of the value of the top 8 players on their draft board relative to the cost of moving up.  Obviously, the Bills are not going to draft a QB in the first round (if at all).  Among the non-quarterbacks likely to be drafted ahead of them, is there one they value so highly that they are willing to pay the cost of trading up to guarantee they can get him?   I doubt Beane would trade up into the top 4 or 5, so it would then depend on who drops.

Edited April 3, 2019 by TigerJ

[maryland-bills-fan]

Gary in the first. A linebacker in the lower first.

 

[wppete]

When you have a hound franchise QB with huge potential like Josh Allen players want o play with him. So Allen is a big part why we got aome ofvthese guys on offense.

[Cripple Creek]

On 4/3/2019 at 9:12 AM, Ramza86 said:

I feel like the Bills tried to do what they are doing now last season. Especially on the line. 

 

It just didnt work out that way.

 

This has been an incredibly active offseason.

 

Are these trade up rumors more likely now?

 

 

They are.

[Clemfield2622]

I don't see them moving up from 9, but certainly could move up at any other point.

 

In fact it wouldn't shock me to see a trade down from 9 AND a trade up back into the 1st. 

[OldTimer1960]

On April 3, 2019 at 9:30 AM, apuszczalowski said:

With Beane saying they wont draft for need, I think it's more likely they trade up or stay out to get the guy they want at whatever position it may be. The only way they trade down is if they dont feel any of the top guys in the draft are their guy, or their guy gets picked and the next guy they want can be had much later. Becuase they dont want to draft for need, they dont need to worry about stocking up on picks, they can spend what they have to move around for whomever they want.

They could "stay true to their board" AND trade down if they have a group of players rated equally - in that case they could try to trade down with the expectation that at least one of that group will still be available a handful of picks later.

[RobbRiddick]

With ten picks I think it's very likely they could move back up into the 2nd or 3rd round. Though I could see Beane doing a lot of wheeling and dealing during the draft.

 

Like, if things shake out properly, I could see him either trading up in the first round, or trading down in the first to get an extra 2nd, then maybe trading back into the 2nd (so THREE 2nd rounders).

 

That's the one I'd like the most. Move down, get an extra 2nd, grab Hockenson, get a DT and WR in the 2nd, then move back into the 2nd and grab another position of need, whether that be LB, pass rusher, RB or even CB. 

 

 

[TPS]

On 4/3/2019 at 9:41 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Well Im not sure the OL signings other than Morse are long term solutions. Spain is a one year deal, Nsekhe is old, and the rest are more depth guys. Maybe Long is a guy that can start for a couple years.

I still see no reason to move up. Still have long term issue at RT. And the defense needs a DT and OLB. TE is still a mess as is the long term RB spot.

Certainly, they are still working towards having a strong roster , and Beane has stated that FA is a way to fill holes so you aren't reaching in the draft. The two immediate needs for 2019 are 3T DT and TE. 

For the O-line, Dawkins and Morse are Set, and now Teller can develop, as I think he is a future starter. They can draft someone to develop at RT now, as they can sit behind Nsekhe for 2 years. As I see it, they will create the foundation for longer term stability over the next 2 years. Yhey can also draft RB and OLB in a later round for development. 

 

My speculation on the draft this year is they will try to get one of the elite DL prospects because (they believe) this will be the last year in the top 10 for quite some time--they need a young stud, all-pro type to be the face of the Dline during the Allen era. For this reason, I'd be shocked if they went TE first. As wawrow hinted, and I agree now, I could see them moving up to get someone. I don't think any of the first 4 teams willl trade back to 9, but I Luds see TB or NYG doing so with picks 5 and 6.

 

Should be another entertaining Bills draft with Beane wheeling and dealing.

[Shaw66]

On 4/3/2019 at 9:12 AM, Ramza86 said:

I feel like the Bills tried to do what they are doing now last season. Especially on the line. 

 

It just didnt work out that way.

 

This has been an incredibly active offseason.

 

Are these trade up rumors more likely now?

 

 

Yesterday I wrote somewhere that McBeane don't do anything without a reason.   I don't think they planned to do last off-season what they did this off-season.  I'd say there is a very high likelihood that they did off-season last year pretty much what they planned to do. 

 

As I wrote elsewhere, I think their plan was to do a two-year tear down, with the rebuild only starting in the second year and continuing in earnest in this, the third year.  Beane has said that they considered doing a more gradual transition from the roster they inherited to the one they wanted, but they decided that although that would be less painful than the housecleaning they did, it wasn't the best way to go.  And it's important to recognize that it wasn't just roster turnover they wanted to work on so they could build the culture they wanted; they also wanted to transition to their cap philosophy, which is to write big contracts only for homegrown talent they want to keep. 

 

They said after their first season that fans should expect the team to get worse before it gets better.  They knew it would get worse because they were going to continue to jettison players whom they didn't want (for culture reasons, cap reasons or both) and they weren't going to replace the talent except through the draft.  That's the thought that was behind the get worse before it gets better comment.  They didn't say it, but they knew they would get worse because they didn't intend to start investing cap room in veteran players.   Even after the 2018 season ended, Beane said fans shouldn't expect the Bills would spend all their cap money heading into the 2019 season.  That isn't how they're building.

 

The evidence is clear that they've followed this philosophy.   I think they've made only two significant free agent acquisitions:  Lotulelei and Morse.  They're the only free agents over $10 million a year.  Hyde, Beasley, Brown, Murphy are all just getting average good-player money.   I used to think average good-player money was $5 million a year, but with cap increases it's gone up, and those guys are all in this group.   I don't want to start a discussion about whether any of those are good signings or not (for example, I think the Bills got what they wanted in Star - a solid presence in the middle of the d line with a work ethic that will make him a leader now that Kyle is gone, but I'm happy to entertain the possibility that he isn't what they hoped).  But that isn't the point - the point is that their philosophy in free agency was never to build by signing a lot of high-end free agent talent.  Their philosophy is perhaps once in a while to get a guy you want to build on, like Morse, but the rest of the time the philosophy is just to fill gaps while they take their time drafting the guys they really want. 

 

So, when you look at 2018, I'd guess McBeane were blindsided by Wood and Incognito both leaving.  Their plan probably was that those guys would be around and they needed just a couple of free agent journeymen to help shore up the weakest spots on the line.  They were planning, I'd guess, to build the line over several years, replacing Richie and Eric as the time came, gradually getting better.   When those two guys left unexpectedly, McBeane did what they always tell they will do, which is to stick to the plan.  They didn't panic and say "we need more linemen in here, NOW!"  They didn't, because that wasn't how they planned to build a better line.  They planned to do it primarily through the draft.  So they stuck by the plan, knowing that they'd have a pretty ugly offensive line in 2018.  That may be one of the reasons they said things would get worse before they got better.  

 

They didn't do last season what they did this season - bring in a bunch of journeymen olinemen - because they also wanted to complete cleaning up the cap situation.  Beane has said he wanted to clean it up completely and quickly before he started consuming cap again.   That meant he was going to use 2018 to get out from under bad contracts and NOT to start getting into a bunch of new contracts.  So that's what he did.  He didn't sign a lot of free agents.   He did have the revolving door for receivers, but he never was investing any serious money there.   Instead, he just let 2018 play out so that he could get to 2019, which is when (I'm guessing) McBeane always thought the rebuild would begin in earnest.  

 

They probably also thought they'd get an offensive lineman pretty high in the 2018 draft, someone who would be a 2018 starter.   But then the QB situation and the MLB situation fell in a way where they could get the two core players that they wanted to build on, and they used draft capital to make those two major moves, figuring they were more important than a lineman.  It's important to remember that they have a long-term view of this (and presumably have the Pegulas support in that view).  So having made the decision not to sign free-agent linemen in 2018, even though they lost their two best starters, in part on the assumption that they'd get some help in the draft, they pushed ahead with the long-term plan, which was get a QB and a middle linebacker.   When that happened, the free agent linemen that might have helped as a stop gap had already been signed.   You can't get after the draft the kind of free agent line talent the Bills got before the draft this year.  (Again, I'm not saying they got great talent.  They got enough talent that the line should be okay this season.  The point is that no talent like they signed this year was available to the Bills AFTER the draft last season.  Just like this season, all the talent at that level had already committed somewhere.)

 

So, no, I don't think the Bills tried to do last year what they did this year.  I think they had a plan last year for how they were going to build.   It didn't go exactly as planned, because Richie and Eric left, but they did what they always say they are going to do - they stuck with the plan.  They stuck with it because their long term view for the oline did not include any journeyman free agent they could have signed last year OR any journeyman free agent they actually did sign this year.  (Morse being the exception - he isn't a journeyman).  Their long-term view is that they are going to draft the entire offensive line of the future, except that some free agent journeyman signed for the short term might emerge as a keeper.  

[Augie]

They had a plan, and it looks just like this. 

 

?

[Shaw66]

On 4/3/2019 at 1:04 PM, No Place To Hyde said:

I think it puts Beane exactly where he wants to be. Much like a lot of free agents he targets he now has versatility. 

 

-He can stay put. Let the draft fall to him and grab the best player.

 

-He can trade back and get more picks. In the draft, picks=power.

 

-He can wait until draft night and see if a highly rated player drops a bit. Williams, Allen, Bosa slid to 6 or 7 and I bet he's on it.

 

With more talent added in FA it doesn't lock him into doing anything out of necessity...he can just step back and make the best available choice.

I agree with this.  I don't expect the Bills to trade up.  I agree that picks=power.  And, yes, I wouldn't rule out a trade up, but I'm guessing that given his choice, Beane would rather have more picks in the first two or three rounds than a higher pick in the first.  I think he's at the part of his plan for the future where he wants to start adding a lot of good, young talent.   I don't think he's looking for a few stars.   He's looking for a lot of quality players.  

 

And although Beane is completely clear that in the early rounds he's going purely BPA and not need, I think there's a sly exception to that rule.   I think if they get to their pick at 9 and their BPA is NOT a true need guy, they will trade out of 9 (if there's a trade partner).   That way they get maybe a late first round pick and a second round pick.   Then they package some later picks with one of their seconds and move up into the late-first round - to end up, for example, with something like the 20th and 25th picks overall and #9 in the second round.   That way they have three good picks in the first two rounds, and THEN they go BPA with each.  That increases the chances that one of their BPA picks turns out to be, conveniently, also a need pick like a quality offensive lineman.  

[SoCal Deek]

I agree Shaw. Once you’ve got your QB, MLB, and top CB; all that’s left of absolute ‘need’ is a top tier LT. Virtually every position is a member of a squad and scheme. Stockpile quality (not necessarily elite) D Line, LB and Receivers.

[1ManRaid]

3 hours ago, Clemfield2622 said:

I don't see them moving up from 9, but certainly could move up at any other point.

 

In fact it wouldn't shock me to see a trade down from 9 AND a trade up back into the 1st. 

That's what I'm hoping for.  Trade down the 1st, trade up in the 2nd and 3rd.

 

NFL.com article is already proposing as one of their "dream draft trades" to trade down with the Giants so they can get Haskins at 9, and hope there is a market for our pick so we can get better than the speculated 3rd and 4th as compensation.  Don't think I want to go down that far in the first but it's a nice idea.

[billsfan89]

On 4/3/2019 at 7:30 AM, 1ManRaid said:

I'd like to see them track back from 9 grabbing an extra 2nd, take DK/Hock/Fant, then trade up on our 2nd/3rd round picks for BPAs.

 

It takes two to tango, which team is going to want a player so badly at pick 9 that they would be willing to trade up? I don't see a trade down being available. I think Tampa at pick 5 (A team looking to get a QB ahead of the Giants) is a great trade down place. But pick 9 not so much. 

[1ManRaid]

9 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It takes two to tango, which team is going to want a player so badly at pick 9 that they would be willing to trade up? I don't see a trade down being available. I think Tampa at pick 5 (A team looking to get a QB ahead of the Giants) is a great trade down place. But pick 9 not so much. 

Maybe the Giants themselves, if Haskins is still there at 9.

[Thurman#1]

On 4/3/2019 at 10:12 PM, Ramza86 said:

I feel like the Bills tried to do what they are doing now last season. Especially on the line. 

 

It just didnt work out that way.

 

This has been an incredibly active offseason.

 

Are these trade up rumors more likely now?

 

 

 

 

I don't see that at all, that last year was supposed to look like this year. 

 

They were well aware that last year they had very little money to work with. This year's very different. Last year if anything was part of the road to this year, saving cap money so they'd have more this year and getting a QB and the one real key pick that a McDermott defense needs in a Kuechley-alike at MLB.

 

As for trading up? Last year even after the first trade-up, the one for Allen, they still had:

 

1st   Josh Allen

1st #22

3rd #65

3rd #96

4th #121

5th #154

5th #166

6th #187

7th #255

 

That's before the Edmunds trade. So they trade up for Edmunds and still get three guys in the first three rounds. They'd picked up a real bounty of trade bait to go get a QB and had some of it left.

 

This year their first extra pick is a 4th rounder. That won't get them a trade-up even from #9 to #7, even if they also throw in their extra 5th on top of it. #9 to #7 on the Johnson chart would cost a 2nd. 40th to 30th would cost a 3rd.

 

A trade up wouldn't surprise me but one where they give up an earlyish pick would. Or at least trading away an early pick would when we only have one pick in each of the first three rounds. If we pick up an extra a tradeup with the extra would surprise me much less. We'll see. I could imagine them being very tempted if Quinnen or Bosa or Josh Allen fell to #7 or so, but I think they'll have gamed all this and won't make a trade unless they get a very nice bargain.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Thurman#1