(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[KD in CA]

1 minute ago, Talley56 said:

I’d like to see a Rams vs UConn spread.

 

87 1/2

[bills11]

Bills or any NFL team and it wouldn't be close..Bama's o line or any in college has no chance to block an NFL defensive line this is grown men vs college kids..and college success is no guarantee of success against NFL players and technique and schemes...so many busts were college superstars.the bills would have Tua looking worse than kirk cousins he would be sacked and NFL record amount . 

[dlonce]

This conversation is silly.

Its all fantasy.

 

There is no way on earth Alabama covers that spread, it is men against boys. 

A vast majority of those “Bama” players will crash and burn in the NFL,or not make it originally.

 

Yes, I’ve watched a lot of those bama games because I’m interested as a Clemson Alumnus.

They would have no chance against the Bills and would never cover.

[Orlando Tim]

14 hours ago, iinii said:

It wasn’t because he was scared of McBeane. 

Put the Koolaid down, it is affecting your brain.

You are actually stating Alabama does not have superior talent? Wow i think you must be related to Saban.

[4merper4mer]

Does Bama get to use R. Foster now that he is out of the NFL?

[HappyDays]

15 hours ago, Bill Murray said:

Putting shady to the side however, just contemplate Chris Ivory.  The guy runs harder than anyone in the NFL; he is an absolute battering ram.  No college level DB and very very few safeties could bring him down.

 

Chris Ivory alone would decimate their defense with injuries. People are not thinking very rationally about this scenario. They aren't taking into account injuries, fatigue, special teams, etc. It's just the same points being repeated over and over. Sure maybe their great college receivers would have a couple catches in the 1st quarter before fatigue set in. Maybe a DPI at the 1 would gift them a TD, if they could somehow score from 1 yard out. Even in the best case scenario by the 2nd half most of the team would be injured and the rest would be very sore and very tired. At that point, assuming the Bills didn't take their foot off the gas, we could run up the score at will. Everyone who thinks Alabama would cover is assuming their talent alone is enough. Plenty of supremely talented college players have made it to the NFL and made it no further than their rookie contracts. It takes a year of the Chris Ivorys of the world to knock you down before you can truly know you are an NFL player.

Edited November 25, 2018 by HappyDays

[Kirby Jackson]

10 hours ago, Talley56 said:

I’d like to see a Rams vs UConn spread.

We can probably kind of figure it out. The Rams - Alabama hypothetical spread is 49.5. If Alabama is a 45 point favorite against UCONN you are looking at 94.5. I would think that they’d cut it some just because it’s hard to score that many points. Say that 45 is cut in half to 22.5. I’m thinking a spread of 72 for the Rams over UCONN. I’d lay the points.

[Bing Bong]

How TF is Bama getting 35% votes?! Y'all are dumb... Dumb dumb dumb as all getout.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Chris Ivory alone would decimate their defense with injuries. People are not thinking very rationally about this scenario. They aren't taking into account injuries, fatigue, special teams, etc. It's just the same points being repeated over and over. Sure maybe their great college receivers would have a couple catches in the 1st quarter before fatigue set in. Maybe a DPI at the 1 would gift them a TD, if they could somehow score from 1 yard out. Even in the best case scenario by the 2nd half most of the team would be injured and the rest would be very sore and very tired. At that point, assuming the Bills didn't take their foot off the gas, we could run up the score at will. Everyone who thinks Alabama would cover is assuming their talent alone is enough. Plenty of supremely talented college players have made it to the NFL and made it no further than their rookie contracts. It takes a year of the Chris Ivorys of the world to knock you down before you can truly know you are an NFL player.

I actually think the exact opposite. They have 2 defensive tackles that will be round one picks and starting in the NFL in 9 months. I don’t believe that a decent NFL back is going to run all over these guys and injure them. Russell Bodine, John Miller and Wyatt Teller aren’t pushing Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis around!! That’s crazy. The 2 best players of those 5 both play on Alabama. 

 

People think that there is some magical improvement between big time college football and the draft. There isn’t. The elite players are elite. Because of the nature of recruiting the elite players are concentrated in a few programs. If you follow recruiting you will see that the top classes are the same schools every year. That means that they have the best freshman, the best sophomores, the best juniors and the best seniors in the country. This isn’t like the salary cap world where everybody has a handful of elite players, a middle class and back of the roster players. At a program like Bama the back of the roster and middle class players get recruited over. They play 4 and 5 star recruits. They play future NFL players.

[BringBackOrton]

11 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I actually think the exact opposite. They have 2 defensive tackles that will be round one picks and starting in the NFL in 9 months. I don’t believe that a decent NFL back is going to run all over these guys and injure them. Russell Bodine, John Miller and Wyatt Teller aren’t pushing Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis around!! That’s crazy. The 2 best players of those 5 both play on Alabama. 

 

People think that there is some magical improvement between big time college football and the draft. There isn’t. The elite players are elite. Because of the nature of recruiting the elite players are concentrated in a few programs. If you follow recruiting you will see that the top classes are the same schools every year. That means that they have the best freshman, the best sophomores, the best juniors and the best seniors in the country. This isn’t like the salary cap world where everybody has a handful of elite players, a middle class and back of the roster players. At a program like Bama the back of the roster and middle class players get recruited over. They play 4 and 5 star recruits. They play future NFL players.

They play 5 star recruits in rotations. Vlad Ducasse would be pancaking linebackers left and right. Bills would have 200 yards rushing at half, easily.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

They play 5 star recruits in rotations. Vlad Ducasse would be pancaking linebackers left and right. Bills would have 200 yards rushing at half, easily.

Vlad Ducasse doesn’t even play!! He lost his job to a middle round rookie. That’s the guy that’s going to push around and physically dominate a top 5 pick.

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I actually think the exact opposite. They have 2 defensive tackles that will be round one picks and starting in the NFL in 9 months. I don’t believe that a decent NFL back is going to run all over these guys and injure them. Russell Bodine, John Miller and Wyatt Teller aren’t pushing Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis around!! That’s crazy. The 2 best players of those 5 both play on Alabama. 

 

People think that there is some magical improvement between big time college football and the draft. There isn’t. The elite players are elite. Because of the nature of recruiting the elite players are concentrated in a few programs. If you follow recruiting you will see that the top classes are the same schools every year. That means that they have the best freshman, the best sophomores, the best juniors and the best seniors in the country. This isn’t like the salary cap world where everybody has a handful of elite players, a middle class and back of the roster players. At a program like Bama the back of the roster and middle class players get recruited over. They play 4 and 5 star recruits. They play future NFL players.

Teller held his own last week against a proven NFL d tackle in McLendon. Every NFL guy is proven.

 

Alabama is full of potential future NFL players. The NFL is full of actual NFL players.

[boyst]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Vlad Ducasse doesn’t even play!! He lost his job to a middle round rookie. That’s the guy that’s going to push around and physically dominate a top 5 pick.

This is also a key point that hinges upon the games success.

 

If an NFL team played an NCAA team the tempo is just that much faster that an NCAA player would have to break in to the speed, power and and agility of the game.

 

Not too many rookie DL come in to the league successfully in their first 3 or 4 games. That's after practicing all off season and being among the top 15 of their position to be drafted in a worthy round.

 

Ducasse, though not great, is already up to NFL speed where as the average top 5 NCAA defender is not.  The DL would be facing OL schemes and players that are as fast or faster with as much power to match them.  The LB's, generally the best players on defense in the NCAA, would be met equally by premier FB's which college doesn't have, strong TE's which are rare in NCAA, as well as the previously mentioned faster and more powerful OL.  The gaps NCAA backers capitalize on would be much more narrow against an NFL than someone like Vanderbilt or UVA or that lowly team up north.  And backers in coverage would be outmatched by TE's as big or bigger than they are and much more physical. The WR's would blow by them or stunt them to death.  LB's bridge a huge gap to transition to the big league, cornerbacks, too.  CB's no longer just have to be atheltic enough to keep up with the WR they have to read the seasoned NFL QB who lead them off and pull them away.  That'll give safety positons, which IMO is the hardest to adapt to in the NFL from NCAA, real problems.  The NCAA has been Fielding amazing talent at the S positions of recent.

 

On defense it would look like a backyard football game.  I'd want a tyrod Taylor as much as any QB if I could not get a Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, or Ryan type.  The defense would be out matched on speed alone.

 

On defense the NFL team would overpower them on the line almost every play. 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

24 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Teller held his own last week against a proven NFL d tackle in McLendon. Every NFL guy is proven.

 

Alabama is full of potential future NFL players. The NFL is full of actual NFL players.

You are supporting my point. Teller played very well. He is no more than months removed from being a mid-round pick. Perhaps, the OL would have been better if he had taken the role earlier? He didn’t become a completely different player than on draft day. The same for Tre White the year before. He was a good college player and a few months later a good NFL player. 

 

“Potential” NFL players isn’t fair either in some cases. “Future” NFL players is more accurate for the top guys. Quinnen Williams will be a top 5 to 10 pick. He’s not “potentially” an NFL player. He just isn’t there yet.

[mannc]

19 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are supporting my point. Teller played very well. He is no more than months removed from being a mid-round pick. Perhaps, the OL would have been better if he had taken the role earlier? He didn’t become a completely different player than on draft day. The same for Tre White the year before. He was a good college player and a few months later a good NFL player. 

 

“Potential” NFL players isn’t fair either in some cases. “Future” NFL players is more accurate for the top guys. Quinnen Williams will be a top 5 to 10 pick. He’s not “potentially” an NFL player. He just isn’t there yet.

The idea that Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis would be terrorized by Chris Ivory (who I like) or pancaked by Vlad the Inhaler is one of the most laughable ideas I’ve heard in a while.

 

I know their views are somewhat biased, but don’t people give any weight to the opinions of guys like Dareus and Mark Barron in the linked article, who say Alabama would win plenty of games in the NFL? I mean, they would know better than anyone, wouldn’t they?  

 

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by mannc

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You are supporting my point. Teller played very well. He is no more than months removed from being a mid-round pick. Perhaps, the OL would have been better if he had taken the role earlier? He didn’t become a completely different player than on draft day. The same for Tre White the year before. He was a good college player and a few months later a good NFL player. 

 

“Potential” NFL players isn’t fair either in some cases. “Future” NFL players is more accurate for the top guys. Quinnen Williams will be a top 5 to 10 pick. He’s not “potentially” an NFL player. He just isn’t there yet.

For sure about White- he's an exception IMO. He's one of the most talented players in the world and DB is one position that exceptional college players can come straight in and play at a high level.

 

But you can't discount that there's a learning curve any time you step up a level in competition. I've played at a couple different levels of sports and it's a truism...playing against the best, day in and day out, forces you to be better in a way that's just not duplicable. There's a lot to be said for the improvement (physically, mentally, everything really) that must occur between draft day and week 1 even for the best prospects. They're having to go against other guys who are also the best of the best in college, and the Alabama team just isn't getting that level of competition on a day to day basis. 

[BillsfanAZ]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I actually think the exact opposite. They have 2 defensive tackles that will be round one picks and starting in the NFL in 9 months. I don’t believe that a decent NFL back is going to run all over these guys and injure them. Russell Bodine, John Miller and Wyatt Teller aren’t pushing Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis around!! That’s crazy. The 2 best players of those 5 both play on Alabama. 

 

People think that there is some magical improvement between big time college football and the draft. There isn’t. The elite players are elite. Because of the nature of recruiting the elite players are concentrated in a few programs. If you follow recruiting you will see that the top classes are the same schools every year. That means that they have the best freshman, the best sophomores, the best juniors and the best seniors in the country. This isn’t like the salary cap world where everybody has a handful of elite players, a middle class and back of the roster players. At a program like Bama the back of the roster and middle class players get recruited over. They play 4 and 5 star recruits. They play future NFL players.

So in 2018 Bama had 12 players drafted into the NFL and some undrafted players. Not all 12 of those players are starting but they have potential to play eventually.  So 12 have potential to play in the NFL, what about the other Bama players that will never be good enough for the NFL? You hit the nail on the head when you said "future NFL Players". The Bills players can play in the NFL now. The Bills Online dont need to push Williams and Davis around, just block them and attack other areas. NFL players full time job is to prepare themselves to play on Sunday. College only allows a certain amount of time to do this. The Bills would kill them. 

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

So in 2018 Bama had 12 players drafted into the NFL and some undrafted players. Not all 12 of those players are starting but they have potential to play eventually.  So 12 have potential to play in the NFL, what about the other Bama players that will never be good enough for the NFL? You hit the nail on the head when you said "future NFL Players". The Bills players can play in the NFL now. The Bills Online dont need to push Williams and Davis around, just block them and attack other areas. NFL players full time job is to prepare themselves to play on Sunday. College only allows a certain amount of time to do this. The Bills would kill them. 

They had 12 drafted because others weren’t eligible or wanted to raise their stock. They will have another 12 or so this year. The same again next year when Jeudy and Tua are eligible. They have 30+ (conservatively) NFL players on their roster.

[BringBackOrton]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They had 12 drafted because others weren’t eligible or wanted to raise their stock. They will have another 12 or so this year. The same again next year when Jeudy and Tua are eligible. They have 30+ (conservatively) NFL players on their roster.

And half of them are (future) NFL prospects who are still children.  And of the other half, only a handful will be good in the NFL.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

And half of them are (future) NFL prospects who are still children.  And of the other half, only a handful will be good in the NFL.

We don’t necessarily disagree here. I think that they probably have 10+ first rounders and 20+ guys that are top 2 day picks. The Bills don’t have that. They are clearly further along but I don’t see this massive talent disparity. They are at different stages of development. 31-10 has been my prediction and I’m sticking with it. 

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

We don’t necessarily disagree here. I think that they probably have 10+ first rounders and 20+ guys that are top 2 day picks. The Bills don’t have that. They are clearly further along but I don’t see this massive talent disparity. They are at different stages of development. 31-10 has been my prediction and I’m sticking with it. 

The debate is can an 18-19 year old future first/second round pick not get physically dominated every single snap by a 22-30 year old NFL player.  That's it.

 

I say no.  Every 19 year old would get destroyed.  Every snap.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, BringBackOrton said:

The debate is can an 18-19 year old future first/second round pick not get physically dominated every single snap by a 22-30 year old NFL player.  That's it.

 

I say no.  Every 19 year old would get destroyed.  Every snap.

We just disagree. I don’t think either of us is ever changing our opinion and we will never know the answer.

[Chicharito]

3 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

The debate is can an 18-19 year old future first/second round pick not get physically dominated every single snap by a 22-30 year old NFL player.  That's it.

 

I say no.  Every 19 year old would get destroyed.  Every snap.

We have a pretty good kid that just turned 20 that doesn’t get dominated!

[Prickly Pete]

What's the spread on the body count?

I say...

2 deaths

4 career ending injuries

10 out for the rest of the game

And 10 guys from the Tide that call in sick.

 

 

[mannc]

4 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

The debate is can an 18-19 year old future first/second round pick not get physically dominated every single snap by a 22-30 year old NFL player.  That's it.

 

I say no.  Every 19 year old would get destroyed.  Every snap.

Did you read the linked article quoting multiple Alabama alums playing in the NFL now?  All of them said Alabama could beat NFL teams, at least on occasion.  Do you think they might be In a better position than you are to predict how Alabama would match up against NFL teams?  

 

Do you know how many 18-year old are starting for Alabama?  I don’t, but I’d guess zero. And maybe one or two 19-year olds.  And if they are starting at that age, it’s because they are unreal football players.

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by mannc

[BringBackOrton]

21 minutes ago, mannc said:

Did you read the linked article quoting multiple Alabama alums playing in the NFL now?  All of them said Alabama could beat NFL teams, at least on occasion.  Do you think they might be In a better position than you are to predict how Alabama would match up against NFL teams?  

 

Do you know how many 18-year old are starting for Alabama?  I don’t, but I’d guess zero. And maybe one or two 19-year olds.  And if they are starting at that age, it’s because they are unreal football players.

 

I'm not particularly worried about the Cyrus Kujo's of the world. He was an unreal OL prospect.  

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I'm not particularly worried about the Cyrus Kujo's of the world. He was an unreal OL prospect.  

...and Robert Foster has more yards in the last two games than he did last season at Alabama. He wasn’t good enough to crack the lineup there but is playing a lot here. It works both ways. 

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

...and Robert Foster has more yards in the last two games than he did last season at Alabama. He wasn’t good enough to crack the lineup there but is playing a lot here. It works both ways. 

I don't think it does. I don't think there's a lot of random backups at Alabama that end up decent pros. 

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don't think it does. I don't think there's a lot of random backups at Alabama that end up decent pros. 

So Foster doesn’t count?  But Kujo does?  Got it.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

I don't think it does. I don't think there's a lot of random backups at Alabama that end up decent pros. 

We agree with that. That’s kind of the exact point that I’ve been trying to make. Their talent is elite. I can’t stand them but recognize the quality of player (and coach) that goes to the that program.

 

Also, Cyrus Kouandjio was the 44th pick in the draft. He wasn’t some elite prospect that failed. He was a guy with some talent and some questions that is now in his 5th NFL season despite some clear off the field issues. 

Edited November 26, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

So Foster doesn’t count?  But Kujo does?  Got it.

Nah he counts.  But I think he's a very rare exception.  In the 2014 draft, for example, there were 8 Bama players drafter.  4 are out of the league,  1 is a fringe guy, 1 is a back up and 2 are starters.

 

Have there been 3 UDFAs Bama guys who were unproductive in college that had productive NFL careers in the last ten years even?  It's not a 1:1 comparison.  More Bama players bust in the NFL than play well.  It doesn't "go both ways."

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We agree with that. That’s kind of the exact point that I’ve been trying to make. Their talent is elite. I can’t stand them but recognize the quality of player (and coach) that goes to the that program.

 

Also, Cyrus Kouandjio was the 44th pick in the draft. He wasn’t some elite prospect that failed. He was a guy with some talent and some questions that is now in his 5th NFL season despite some clear off the field issues. 

That's a copout when you've been touting how many "day 2 picks" are on their roster.  Kujo was a day two pick in one of the deepest drafts in NFL history, but now he's got "questions" because he sucks at the NFL level now that he's not blocking the UAB Green Dragons.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Nah he counts.  But I think he's a very rare exception.  In the 2014 draft, for example, there were 8 Bama players drafter.  4 are out of the league,  1 is a fringe guy, 1 is a back up and 2 are starters.

 

Have there been 3 UDFAs Bama guys who were unproductive in college that had productive NFL careers in the last ten years even?  It's not a 1:1 comparison.  More Bama players bust in the NFL than play well.  It doesn't "go both ways."

This Alabama team is not the 2014 team.  They might be the best ever.  They’ll have at least 9 guys drafted in the first two days. And they have the best QB Alabama has had in a very long time.  And next year will be more of the same.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Nah he counts.  But I think he's a very rare exception.  In the 2014 draft, for example, there were 8 Bama players drafter.  4 are out of the league,  1 is a fringe guy, 1 is a back up and 2 are starters.

 

Have there been 3 UDFAs Bama guys who were unproductive in college that had productive NFL careers in the last ten years even?  It's not a 1:1 comparison.  More Bama players bust in the NFL than play well.  It doesn't "go both ways."

That's a copout when you've been touting how many "day 2 picks" are on their roster.  Kujo was a day two pick in one of the deepest drafts in NFL history, but now he's got "questions" because he sucks at the NFL level now that he's not blocking the UAB Green Dragons.

He’s has outlived the average NFL career despite a mental breakdown where he ended up with no pants on. I would call a day 2 pick a solid pro. He probably has amounted to an average 2nd rounder.

[Matt_In_NH]

Alabama would probably be a wild card team

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s has outlived the average NFL career despite a mental breakdown where he ended up with no pants on. I would call a day 2 pick a solid pro. He probably has amounted to an average 2nd rounder.

Yeah, Doug Whaley is happy with Kujo's career from his XFL office.  He's probably on his resume.

 

[dubs]

There is literally a 0.0% chance of the game being anything but an absolute blowout for an NFL team. If the NFL team poured it on, it might be 100-0. 

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Yeah, Doug Whaley is happy with Kujo's career from his XFL office.  He's probably on his resume.

 

He’s in year 5 in the league. That’s not a complete failure.

Edited November 26, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[iinii]

12 hours ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

You are actually stating Alabama does not have superior talent? Wow i think you must be related to Saban.

No but I am Satan

[78thealltimegreat]

Alabama? The guys who where tied with the Citadel at half time ? 

[Orlando Tim]

19 hours ago, iinii said:

No but I am Satan

Miro is that you?