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John from Riverside

At the end of the day....this is our team

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4 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

$50 million in dead cap is hard to overcome.

 

One more reason Doug Whaley is managing a college all star roster not on par with the East-West Shrine game.

 

3 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

We have 10 picks next year, not 9

 

7 are in rounds 4-7.  

 

Buffalo is going to take a step back before it can take a step forward. The question remains as to how fans can take that after the generation of fail from 2000-16. 

 

At the end of the season if they're 5-11, but have developed a starting QB, feature a solid pass rush, have a rising MLB, and the secondary remains tough, well, perhaps it's worth it.

 

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3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

One Heart Beat Louder 

oh, right.   I was close

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11 hours ago, westside said:

I think we took a couple if not more steps backwards. To many unknowns and the loss of several good players without filling the holes they left behind. I see this as a 3 or 4 win team right now. I hope I'm wrong though.

Anyone know how that compares to the rest of the league?

 

...I think #2 is $25 mil.............

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11 hours ago, bobblehead said:

Yeah I heard worse crap last summer.  I mean seriously, they were supposed to be so bad they were tanking .Perhaps these guys are better than you think?  I know that’s not how it’s done here but still 

....and last year the schedule was brutal, right? no kb til late october...and a hobbling jordan matthews for receivers....rico calling plays,  juan ruining the run game until players revolt

 

...an you know who at qb.  looking at all that was last year, how can one not be optimistic this year?

 

edit: not having to see tolbert out there and also not losing my voice yelling..."throw the f...in ball!!  will be a huge plus. we are going to the playoffs again!

Edited by billsredneck1

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1 minute ago, billsredneck1 said:

...an you know who at qb.  looking at all that was last year, how can one not be optimistic this year?

 

Never underestimate a bills fan when it comes to self-inflicted misery.

 

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13 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

All true, but remember the words of General George Patton - a good soldier bitches!

 

Then you slap him upside of the head ;)

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22 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

Old blood and guts. Our blood, his guts. 

 

 

The slap heard round the world...

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On 9/2/2018 at 6:55 PM, COTC said:

Oh woe is me!! This thread is depressing...

 

Good Vibes lead to Good things. 

 

We will improve and build from last year. 

Actually, hard work, sweating over every last detail, and always thinking you can improve are the sorts of things that lead to good things.

 

We are a league leading regression candidate for this season and likely to take a big step backward.  Without the ridiculous takeaway/giveaway ratio we enjoyed last year, we almost have to regress.

 

The question is whether we will rebound with 2 steps forward next year and beyond.

 

That depends entirely on whether or not Josh Allen can defy odds and turn into a good QB.

 

 

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This is a roster still in transition. Can't do everything in one off-season. Lot of moves with a view towards next off season when we have craploads of cap space. This FO actually has a plan and while we might not always like or agree with it, at least we can understand why they are doing most of the things they do.

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On 9/2/2018 at 4:41 PM, baskingridgebillsfan said:

i have a very strange feeling that this year will go poorly,but i also fell the following year will be the first of many good seasons.   It is not Billsy to take a step back to take many forward,  In the past it has always been fill as a many holes as possible and try to sneak into the playoffs.   

 

I would think anything the team does is Billsy, by definition.

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On 9/2/2018 at 8:34 PM, ganesh said:

I won't even say the coaching was very good last year...The #s don't lie.  We were one of the worsts team statistically on defense and a middle of the run team with the worst passing on offense.  However, what the Coaching gave the team was the ability to make key plays when the game was on the line.  This allowed us to win games even when we were statistically not in it.

 

The draft is a crapshoot. We won't know about the success or failure of the draft until 2-3 seasons later. 

 

Go Bills!

 

On the defense, I disagree. For the most part they played well, and were even darn right dominant in some game. However, they had 3 or 4 incredibly terrible games that really brought all those "numbers" down.

 

So if anything, they were inconsistent, but showed signs of being good.

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On 9/2/2018 at 9:56 PM, Jerome007 said:

Dead cap space is horrendous but mostly on the past regime. Hopefully it quickly corrects itself by the next year or 2020

 

 

I disagree.  This is a perfect example of Bills cheerleaders using half-truths and untruths to exempt McDermott and Beane from responsibility for their actions by scapegoating individuals who are no longer with the Bills. 

  • McDermott and Beane chose to trade Dareus ($13.6 million), Glenn ($9.6 million), Taylor ($7.6 million), and Ragland ($1.2 million)  without regard to the cap consequences,  creating $32 million in dead cap money.  
  • They also chose to bring in Corey Coleman ($3.5 million) and AJ McCarron ($2.1 million) for essentially tryouts and send them both packing before the regular season even starts, resulting in $5.6 million in dead cap money.   
  • The bulk of the remainder of dead cap money goes to Eric Wood ($10.4 million) and Aaron Williams ($2.4 million), both of whom were forced to retire because of injury, for a total of $12.6 million.   Retirements due to injuries can't be blamed on anybody.

That's a total of $37.6 million of the Bills $53+ million dead cap money. 

 

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3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I disagree.  This is a perfect example of Bills cheerleaders using half-truths and untruths to exempt McDermott and Beane from responsibility for their actions by scapegoating individuals who are no longer with the Bills. 

  • McDermott and Beane chose to trade Dareus ($13.6 million), Glenn ($9.6 million), Taylor ($7.6 million), and Ragland ($1.2 million)  without regard to the cap consequences,  creating $32 million in dead cap money.  
  • They also chose to bring in Corey Coleman ($3.5 million) and AJ McCarron ($2.1 million) for essentially tryouts and send them both packing before the regular season even starts, resulting in $5.6 million in dead cap money.   
  • The bulk of the remainder of dead cap money goes to Eric Wood ($10.4 million) and Aaron Williams ($2.4 million), both of whom were forced to retire because of injury, for a total of $12.6 million.   Retirements due to injuries can't be blamed on anybody.

That's a total of $37.6 million of the Bills $53+ million dead cap money. 

 

do you wake up this upset at the bills, or does something happen to you between 8 and 10 am that makes you that way?

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On 9/2/2018 at 6:31 PM, John from Riverside said:

When I comb through the transactions and our team has taken shape I feel that

 

- There simply was not the move that was going to make our team significantly better.....even after final cuts I am not seeing "that guy" that is going to come in and change whatever our win total is going to be this year. 

 

- I think that our coaching is so good that it got every last bit of mayo out of the jar last year.   I expect the same thing to happen this year.

 

- This year was all about getting the qb of the future.....biting the bullet on the huge dead cap....and looking towards next year with what is it....NINE picks and possibly around 100 million in cap space.....

 

- but what if....just WHAT if.....this team finds a way to be competative?  Now the team looks to be in GREAT shape heading into the following season with a strong draft under their belt, another set of 9 picks, and a lot of cap space.

John -

 

I like this.  We always knew there were two approaches to the draft - trade up for a QB, or use all those picks to build the O line and D line.   Bills went for the QB.   Now, if Peterman turns out to be a star, the Bills made the wrong choice.   With all those picks and a star QB, the Bills would have been contending this year and a potential powerhouse in the next two or three. 

 

However, I don't think Peterman has the arm to be a star.  Without a strong arm, teams struggle against good defenses, because the defenses can cheat in and gamble more, because they know the QB can't beat them.   So we're left with hoping Allen was a good choice.   I'm a little worried that he didn't win the starting competition against weak competition, but McDermott said in the Spring that overcoming the experience gap in just training camp and preseason would be very difficult.  

 

My view is that the game is all about coaching and the QB.  Like you, I think there's reason to believe the coaching is really good.  We saw it last season.  If the coaching is good, the Bills will be competitive this season, even with the holes we all can see.  If the coaching is good and either Peterman and Allen becomes a quality starter this season, Bills will go to the playoffs again.  

 

And, I think people have gone to sleep on Edmunds.   He's not much of a hitter yet, and that and his gap discipline have caused him to be not very effective in the run game, but I think he's already paying dividends in the passing game.   I think teams are learning already that he can take away the short and medium middle of the field.   He can run with anyone, so he isn't a gimme matchup, and in middle and deep middle zones he's a real headache.   

 

If somehow the Bills have good coaching, a star middle linebacker and a star QB, it's going to be a lot of fun around here.  

14 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I disagree.  This is a perfect example of Bills cheerleaders using half-truths and untruths to exempt McDermott and Beane from responsibility for their actions by scapegoating individuals who are no longer with the Bills. 

  • McDermott and Beane chose to trade Dareus ($13.6 million), Glenn ($9.6 million), Taylor ($7.6 million), and Ragland ($1.2 million)  without regard to the cap consequences,  creating $32 million in dead cap money.  
  • They also chose to bring in Corey Coleman ($3.5 million) and AJ McCarron ($2.1 million) for essentially tryouts and send them both packing before the regular season even starts, resulting in $5.6 million in dead cap money.   
  • The bulk of the remainder of dead cap money goes to Eric Wood ($10.4 million) and Aaron Williams ($2.4 million), both of whom were forced to retire because of injury, for a total of $12.6 million.   Retirements due to injuries can't be blamed on anybody.

That's a total of $37.6 million of the Bills $53+ million dead cap money. 

 

You put Dareus, Glenn, Taylor and Ragland on McBeane.   McBeane weren't responsible for those contracts.   Those are guys that McBeane didn't want or, in Glenn's case, couldn't use.   Guys on your team you don't want are just as much "dead" space as guys you cut.   Either way, the team is taking the cap hit, and wither way the guys aren't helping you.   Either way, you're looking for other players, in the draft or in free agency.  

 

And of course you'd rather not sign guys and then cut them, but every team has some of these.   

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On 9/2/2018 at 10:34 PM, ganesh said:

I won't even say the coaching was very good last year...The #s don't lie.  We were one of the worsts team statistically on defense and a middle of the run team with the worst passing on offense.  However, what the Coaching gave the team was the ability to make key plays when the game was on the line.  This allowed us to win games even when we were statistically not in it.

 

Huh?   

 

In 2016 the Bills were 16th in yards per game and 10th in points per game.  Defensively they were 19th and 16th.   As was always the case with teams Rex coached, they couldn't make key plays when the game was on the line.   Coaching clearly was the difference.  

 

So are you saying you'd rather have stats and not go to the playoffs, or have a team that has lousy stats but that scratches and claws, gives the opponent nothing in the second half, and goes to the playoffs?   

 

2017 was a masterful coaching job.  The team was in transition, the receiving corps was decimated, both the offense and defense were learning new schemes, the team suffered a brutal mid-season letdown, and the team still recovered to go to the playoffs.  

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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

John -

 

I like this.  We always knew there were two approaches to the draft - trade up for a QB, or use all those picks to build the O line and D line.   Bills went for the QB.   Now, if Peterman turns out to be a star, the Bills made the wrong choice.   With all those picks and a star QB, the Bills would have been contending this year and a potential powerhouse in the next two or three. 

 

However, I don't think Peterman has the arm to be a star.  Without a strong arm, teams struggle against good defenses, because the defenses can cheat in and gamble more, because they know the QB can't beat them.   So we're left with hoping Allen was a good choice.   I'm a little worried that he didn't win the starting competition against weak competition, but McDermott said in the Spring that overcoming the experience gap in just training camp and preseason would be very difficult.  

 

My view is that the game is all about coaching and the QB.  Like you, I think there's reason to believe the coaching is really good.  We saw it last season.  If the coaching is good, the Bills will be competitive this season, even with the holes we all can see.  If the coaching is good and either Peterman and Allen becomes a quality starter this season, Bills will go to the playoffs again.  

 

And, I think people have gone to sleep on Edmunds.   He's not much of a hitter yet, and that and his gap discipline have caused him to be not very effective in the run game, but I think he's already paying dividends in the passing game.   I think teams are learning already that he can take away the short and medium middle of the field.   He can run with anyone, so he isn't a gimme matchup, and in middle and deep middle zones he's a real headache.   

 

If somehow the Bills have good coaching, a star middle linebacker and a star QB, it's going to be a lot of fun around here.  

 

Coaching and QB are definitely the two most important.

The game is not all about that though.

There is a talent level that you need across the board at many key positions.

Our offensive line and WR corps are tire-fires.

It doesn't matter how good your QB is if you cannot protect him and he has nobody to catch the ball.

It doesn't matter how good your coaching is if the players you have cannot actually execute the strategy/plays which the coach comes up with.

We are devoid of any real talent at WR and oline save for KB being an above average receiver.

 

Edmunds will have a rough rookie year I believe. He's got a LOT to learn, he's very young, but he's hungry, and seems to be a hard worker, so I'm thinking that he'll be looking really good by halfway through the season.

 

We have some really good top guys (tre white, poyer, hyde, shady, even KB), some good young pieces (allen, edmunds, and a couple others), but after that we are SUPER thin.

Our secondary is legit awful after white/poyer/hyde though, we have NO linebackers who are even above average (MAYBE milano) after Edmunds, who as I said, has some learning to do, and KW is our best Dlineman, the rest don't look good at all, and I feel like that's going to be a HUGE issue.

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Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Coaching and QB are definitely the two most important.

The game is not all about that though.

There is a talent level that you need across the board at many key positions.

Our offensive line and WR corps are tire-fires.

It doesn't matter how good your QB is if you cannot protect him and he has nobody to catch the ball.

It doesn't matter how good your coaching is if the players you have cannot actually execute the strategy/plays which the coach comes up with.

We are devoid of any real talent at WR and oline save for KB being an above average receiver.

 

Edmunds will have a rough rookie year I believe. He's got a LOT to learn, he's very young, but he's hungry, and seems to be a hard worker, so I'm thinking that he'll be looking really good by halfway through the season.

 

We have some really good top guys (tre white, poyer, hyde, shady, even KB), some good young pieces (allen, edmunds, and a couple others), but after that we are SUPER thin.

Our secondary is legit awful after white/poyer/hyde though, we have NO linebackers who are even above average (MAYBE milano) after Edmunds, who as I said, has some learning to do, and KW is our best Dlineman, the rest don't look good at all, and I feel like that's going to be a HUGE issue.

I think your assessment is wrong for a couple of reasons.   First, though, I agree Edmunds COULD have a rough rookie season.   I was talking more long term.  As I said, I think he'll have trouble against the run.  But I think he's already going to be a positive in the passing game.  

 

The reasons I think you're wrong are (1) the draft and the salary cap and injuries level out the talent across the league pretty effectively and (2) other than a couple of positions, talent just doesn't matter that much.   

 

Look at receivers.   First, the very best receivers in the league rarely are on championship teams.  Why?   Because they aren't all that important over the long term.   Pats have Gronk, but they won with Brady and Belichick without Gronk.   Julio Jones.  Larry Fitzgerald.  Megatron.   Having a great receiver just doesn't make your team that much better.   Bills have Benjamin.  He's a top 15 receiver - maybe not in the mold you'd like, but he's a top 15 receiver.   Health is an issue.   Clay is a top 15 tight end.   Jones has promise.   The Bills are nowhere near the bottom of the league at receiver.   They're average.  

 

A couple years ago, Colin Cowherd asked a Las Vegas bookmaker how important JJ Watt is to the point spread.   The guy said less than a point.   Watt was by far the most dominant defensive player in the league, and he wasn't even a one-point difference in the game.   QBs have, I'd guess, a three to six point impact, if you lose a good one.  So if JJ Watt doesn't have a significant impact on the outcome of the game, how much impact do you think a starting guard has?   Practically none.   In other words, you can take one guard out of the game and put in another, and the outcome of the game probably doesn't change.  

 

Yes, I'd rather have two guards in the top 30 in the league, but few teams, if any, have that.   And the difference between the 60th best guard and the 90th best guard is tiny.  

 

I've said this before:  unless you have the first, second or third best, maybe fourth or fifth best guy in the league, the talent differential in the NFL just isn't very big.   The best offensive tackle in the league is NOT on someone's bench.   The 10th best offensive tackle in the league is NOT on someone's bench.   Probably the 50 best offense tackles in the league are starters.   The 90th best offensive tackle in pro football isn't much different from the 50th best.   And NO team has five guys starting on the oline all of whom are in the 30 at his position (15 for centers).   The talent is spread around.   

 

In that kind of environment, coaching and quarterbacking make a huge difference.    Belichick wins all the time because he's the greatest coach in the history of the game, and his coaching excellence in a league where there's talent parity gives him an edge that no teams have been able to overcome with talent.  Why?   Because it's no longer possible to acquire and hold on to a Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Smith, Biscuit, Talley, Tasker and all those other guys.  You have to win with no names.

 

Yes, the Bills have a lot of no names.   But as we saw last season, coaching can make a guy like Milano useful.   

 

Coaching, coaching, coaching.   And quarterbacking.   

 

Coaching can overcome talent deficiencies.   Talent can't overcome coaching deficiencies; if it could, Larry Fitzgerald would have won Super Bowls.  

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If the Bills can get to an 8-8 year with the lack of talent on this team with QB's with little experience it will be a coaching miracle. Next year the Bills have the cap room and picks to propel to the top. This year is a year to mold our QB, weather it is Petermen or Allen. Their should be no confusion in 2019, the best QB has to shine.

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