Why Josh Allen will demonstrate the flaw in the analytics approach to football

[billsfan1959]

3 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Speaking of analytics: so far, after 2 pre-season game performances, Josh Allen's numbers are pretty much the same as....

 

EJ Manuel.

 

 

So are Josh Rosen's.

Every post with you is like six degrees to Josh Allen sucks....

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

So are Josh Rosen's.

Every post with you is like six degrees to Josh Allen sucks....

 

 

...shocking isn't it?...SMH..........and you thought ignorance wasn't bliss........

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The key word is "predicted." I work in finances and statistics is a hobby of mine. The biggest misconception people have about statistics is that they are making black and white predictions. Really they are assigning probabilities. So for example QBASE (the Football Outsiders analytics stat) gave Josh Allen a 62.7% chance of busting. That's a better than a 1 in 3 chance he makes it. A 1 in 3 chance is NOT that unlikely. If he succeeds that doesn't mean QBASE or whatever other analytics tool is complete bogus. If a model gives 10 QBs a 66% chance of busting and they ALL bust, that means the model is broken. The problem isn't analytics as a tool, the problem is how people interpret them.

The explanation of QBASE on the FO website literally uses completion % as the first knock against Allen. That's the first sign you may want to ignore it. 

 

Further, 'predicting' the potential for a given draftee to 'bust' at anywhere from (spitballing here) 40-70% is probably meaningless when the average rate at which quarterbacks don't pan out in the pros is in that territory anyway. I rate Football Outsiders the same way I rate PFF, which is 'mostly disregard'.

[BearNorth]

Remember Joe Paterno wanted Jim Kelly to come to Penn State [His dream school] as a linebacker.  Even the experts aren't right at times.

 

[Ramza86]

Statistics only show you the result and its only used for general use. Stats dont mean chit without seeing how it happened. 

 

QB A 

Throw 1 - Low screen pass, RB has to dive to catch the ball. No gain. 

Throw 2 - 10 yard out route, DB jumps the route. Slips through his hands and WR catches it for a gain of 10. 

Throw 3 - 18 yard post route QB throws behind the WR, WR reaches behind him and catches is with one hand. Gain of 18. 

 

3/3  for 28 Yards.  %100. What a beast.

 

QB B - 

Throw 1 - 15 yard curl route, right in between the numbers. Complete for a gain of 18

Throw 2 - Pressure up the middle. QB avoids the sack and manages to throw it away. 

Throw 3 -  8 yard  slant....strike down the middle, hits WR in the hands, bounces up and its intercepted. 

 

1/3 for 18 yard and an INT. Awful. 

[JerseyBills]

4 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Speaking of analytics: so far, after 2 pre-season game performances, Josh Allen's numbers are pretty much the same as....

 

EJ Manuel.

 

 

Which kinda goes back to the OPs point. It's not about his numbers per session,  it's how he has looked doing it. The throws he has made , the poise and awareness in the pocket and the clear progression in his game , as far as footwork , shows he is very coachable and able to apply it to live game action. 

This EJ comparison is ridiculous. And like I said, this is why analytics aren't a major factor in building a great team.

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Does your usage of the word "literally" count as one of those times?

No. My usage was correct.

 

Twice.

[Matt_In_NH]

There is no such thing as a crystal ball, all evaluation techniques are flawed in one way or another.  Analytics is just one tool, you can never just go by one tool in and of itself.   The makeup of the person, mitigating circumstances of the data the analytics use need to be considered as well as many other factors.  All the evaluations are done based on what a player has done in the past with a particular team and particular coaches.  It is also a small sample size and he is young, he has growing to do still. 

 

I think we need to pump the brakes on him though....hopefully it works out as well as we all hope but the guy has played a couple quarters in preseason, no way enough to know what will happen down the road.  People are actually saying look at how good the Bills did selecting Allen instead of trading for Foles cause Allen has done well while Foles has struggled in preseason.  There is complete amnesia about what Foles did in real meaninful, super bowl winning games.  Now we only need to know about his stat line in his last preseason game to know he sucks.  Dont take that to mean I want Foles over Allen, I am just saying we need to relax and let things play out.

Edited August 25, 2018 by mattynh

[Batman1876]

4 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Speaking of analytics: so far, after 2 pre-season game performances, Josh Allen's numbers are pretty much the same as....

 

EJ Manuel.

 

 

This actually points out what I was saying. EJ was the same player then that he is now, limited growth. Allen has grown more over the last 8 months than EJ has over the last 5 years. If you look at Allen’s past this kind of growth could be predicted, hard working smart kid who was never really coached in the fundamentals, you’d expect significant growth w once they work on those fundamentals. 

 

Most QBs come to the draft after having gone through the QB training machine, Allen came out of a melon patch. 

 

Even if if you don’t want to get too ahead of yourself with Allen it’s imposible to not agree that he’s grown a lot. If he had this footwork )and the improved accuracy and consistency that goes with it) at Wyoming then he would have been 1st overall. 

[bouds]

5 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Speaking of analytics: so far, after 2 pre-season game performances, Josh Allen's numbers are pretty much the same as....

 

EJ Manuel.

 

 

Nailed it.  It's not even 2 full preseason games, lets pump the brakes.  I thinks some of us, including myself, had pretty low expectations and came away feeling like there something to work with, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.  Lets revisit this in November.

 

Remember fellas, RGIII and Luck were primed for stardom, and I'm probably being unfair to Luck because his career was better than RGIII, but even the best prospects can flame out or fail to reach their peak.

 

This is a long race.

Edited August 25, 2018 by bouds

[SoTier]

45 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

This actually points out what I was saying. EJ was the same player then that he is now, limited growth. Allen has grown more over the last 8 months than EJ has over the last 5 years. If you look at Allen’s past this kind of growth could be predicted, hard working smart kid who was never really coached in the fundamentals, you’d expect significant growth w once they work on those fundamentals. 

 

Most QBs come to the draft after having gone through the QB training machine, Allen came out of a melon patch. 

 

Even if if you don’t want to get too ahead of yourself with Allen it’s imposible to not agree that he’s grown a lot. If he had this footwork )and the improved accuracy and consistency that goes with it) at Wyoming then he would have been 1st overall. 

 

While Allen has grown a lot since the end of the college football seasons, there's no guarantee that he'll continue to improve.  At some point, all QBs hit "the wall" where they fail to improve significantly if at all.  Allen's impressive improvement might be that he's had more room to improve than most first round QB prospects, such as Mayfield.  Moreover, improvement because of mastering fundamentals comes easier than improvements in more complex skills like reading defenses or making the right decisions required because the pro game is much faster and more complex than the collegiate game.  It's not unusual to see a first year starter -- think Mark Sanchez, Colin Kaepernick, or EJ Manuel --  look pretty good in that first year starting and sometimes even early into his second season -- but then simply stop improving any more.  The problem with that is that what's "acceptable" or "good" for a first year starter isn't "acceptable" or "good" for a guy who's been starting for 4 or 5 seasons.

 

All QBs "hit a wall" at some point.  The poorer ones hit it sooner.  The great ones take much longer to do so, but with many QBs their performances aren't all that clear-cut.   They seem to be much more dependent upon their teammates or coaching or various tangibles/intangibles.  Think guys like Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles or Jameis Winston.   Analytics can't predict when a QB is going to stop improving.

Edited August 25, 2018 by SoTier

[EasternOHBillsFan]

6 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

Speaking of analytics: so far, after 2 pre-season game performances, Josh Allen's numbers are pretty much the same as....

 

EJ Manuel.

 

 

 

HOWEVER, he doesn't have the happy feet and poor arm, the tentativeness, or the inaccuracy. Numbers CAN lie!

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, Putin said:

The eye Chico the eye ? never lies !!

Man, that's the boss's lady, you're gonna get us killed.

[Trogdor]

5 hours ago, JMF2006 said:

 

They all play once a WEEK  

 

My thought on the situation is they were going to draft the best fit at QB for this team and I trust the process.(as long as it wasn't Lamaar(TT2) Jackson)

 

I really billieve that these guys are going to get us back to the top of the league.

 

Go Cornfed....light em up on Sunday.

 

BTW did everyone see SuperFoles get destroyed by the Browns D? the same D  Cornfed drove for scores on 3 times

You mean minus those top tier DEs right? That's what we need to see, not just some of the 1st defense. The Chargers are going to wreck our line, so they need to determine if he can handle that.

[Billzfan23]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

The key word is "predicted." I work in finances and statistics is a hobby of mine. The biggest misconception people have about statistics is that they are making black and white predictions. Really they are assigning probabilities. So for example QBASE (the Football Outsiders analytics stat) gave Josh Allen a 62.7% chance of busting. That's a better than a 1 in 3 chance he makes it. A 1 in 3 chance is NOT that unlikely. If he succeeds that doesn't mean QBASE or whatever other analytics tool is complete bogus. If a model gives 10 QBs a 66% chance of busting and they ALL bust, that means the model is broken. The problem isn't analytics as a tool, the problem is how people interpret them.

 

[dubs]

Data Analytics is all about probabilities, not certainties. 

 

Good analysts see the flaws in the data and exploit them. If everyone subscribed to the same data and the same way of interpreting it, then there would be no advantages to be had. 

 

Anyone who looks at “completion percentage” and thinks that it’s going to predict the future is just flat out wrong. It’s a helpful data point and does help make projections, but there are also literally hundreds of other factors to consider. 

 

Im not suggesting I am that person to make predictions, just know it’s not as simple as so many people want to believe it is. 

[Billzfan23]

“If a model gives 10 QBs a 66% chance of busting and they ALL bust, that means the model is broken.”

 

That’s not true. It means the model is improbable/unlikely to be accurate with only 10 objects, but doesn’t mean it’s broken. My wife is an actuary, and I asked her (she’s the master at probabilities) 

 

10 isn’t even close to enough. Even heads 10 times on a row on coin flips happens every 1 in 2000 chances. That’s on 50/50 odds each flip. 

 

Queue the line from Dumb and Dumber “So...you’re telling me there’s a chance”

Josh Allen is probably going to bust and fail - but there’s a chance he won’t 

[BB@Shooter]

2 hours ago, bouds said:

Nailed it.  It's not even 2 full preseason games, lets pump the brakes.  I thinks some of us, including myself, had pretty low expectations and came away feeling like there something to work with, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.  Lets revisit this in November.

 

Remember fellas, RGIII and Luck were primed for stardom, and I'm probably being unfair to Luck because his career was better than RGIII, but even the best prospects can flame out or fail to reach their peak.

 

This is a long race.

So let's all walk around kicking cans and act like our best dog died. Don't live life or dream a little, just give up all thoughts because Allen may not turn out good

 Just turn your emotions off and get out of bed, go to work, come home and repeat. One hell of a way to go through life. I think I will pass and dream a little.

[downunderbill]

3 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

No. My usage was correct.

 

Twice.

 

Well then, you must be the smartest man on the planet by a long way.

[BB@Shooter]

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

You mean minus those top tier DEs right? That's what we need to see, not just some of the 1st defense. The Chargers are going to wreck our line, so they need to determine if he can handle that.

Staying positive as usual. I think it is OK if they work it in. It is not like Gregg wasn't trying to throw schemes at him the way it was. Gregg tried to put Allen on his ass , Allen decided he would not stand around and wait.